Recent from talks
Nothing was collected or created yet.
Derivative (finance)
View on Wikipedia
| Part of a series on |
| Finance |
|---|
In finance, a derivative is a contract between a buyer and a seller. The derivative can take various forms, depending on the transaction, but every derivative has the following four elements:
- an item (the "underlier") that can or must be bought or sold,
- a future act which must occur (such as a sale or purchase of the underlier),
- a price at which the future transaction must take place, and
- a future date by which the act (such as a purchase or sale) must take place.[1]
A derivative's value depends on the performance of the underlier, which can be a commodity (for example, corn or oil), a financial instrument (e.g. a stock or a bond), a price index, a currency, or an interest rate.[2][3]
Derivatives can be used to insure against price movements (hedging), increase exposure to price movements for speculation, or get access to otherwise hard-to-trade assets or markets.[4] Most derivatives are price guarantees. But some are based on an event or performance of an act rather than a price. Agriculture, natural gas, electricity and oil businesses use derivatives to mitigate risk from adverse weather.[5][1] Derivatives can be used to protect lenders against the risk of borrowers defaulting on an obligation.[6]
Some of the more common derivatives include forwards, futures, options, swaps, and variations of these such as synthetic collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps. Most derivatives are traded over-the-counter (off-exchange) or on an exchange such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, while most insurance contracts have developed into a separate industry. In the United States, after the 2008 financial crisis, there has been increased pressure to move derivatives to trade on exchanges.
Derivatives are one of the three main categories of financial instruments, the other two being equity (i.e., stocks or shares) and debt (i.e., bonds and mortgages). The oldest example of a derivative in history, attested to by Aristotle, is thought to be a contract transaction of olives, entered into by ancient Greek philosopher Thales, who made a profit in the exchange.[7] However, Aristotle did not define this arrangement as a derivative but as a monopoly (Aristotle's Politics, Book I, Chapter XI). Bucket shops, outlawed in 1936 in the US, are a more recent historical example.
Basics
[edit]This section needs additional citations for verification. (July 2023) |
Derivatives are contracts between two parties that specify conditions (especially the dates, resulting values and definitions of the underlying variables, the parties' contractual obligations, and the notional amount) under which payments are to be made between the parties.[8][9] The assets include commodities, stocks, bonds, interest rates and currencies, but they can also be other derivatives, which adds another layer of complexity to proper valuation. The components of a firm's capital structure, e.g., bonds and stock, can also be considered derivatives, more precisely options, with the underlying being the firm's assets, but this is unusual outside of technical contexts.
From the economic point of view, financial derivatives are cash flows that are conditioned stochastically and discounted to present value. The market risk inherent in the underlying asset is attached to the financial derivative through contractual agreements and hence can be traded separately.[10] The underlying asset does not have to be acquired. Derivatives therefore allow the breakup of ownership and participation in the market value of an asset. This also provides a considerable amount of freedom regarding the contract design. That contractual freedom allows derivative designers to modify the participation in the performance of the underlying asset almost arbitrarily. Thus, the participation in the market value of the underlying can be effectively weaker, stronger (leverage effect), or implemented as inverse. Hence, specifically the market price risk of the underlying asset can be controlled in almost every situation.[10]
There are two groups of derivative contracts: the privately traded over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives such as swaps that do not go through an exchange or other intermediary, and exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) that are traded through specialized derivatives exchanges or other exchanges.
Derivatives are more common in the modern era, but their origins trace back several centuries. One of the oldest derivatives is rice futures, which have been traded on the Dojima Rice Exchange since the eighteenth century.[11] Derivatives are broadly categorized by the relationship between the underlying asset and the derivative (such as forward, option, swap); the type of underlying asset (such as equity derivatives, foreign exchange derivatives, interest rate derivatives, commodity derivatives, or credit derivatives); the market in which they trade (such as exchange-traded or over-the-counter); and their pay-off profile.
Derivatives may broadly be categorized as "lock" or "option" products. Lock products (such as swaps, futures, or forwards) obligate the contractual parties to the terms over the life of the contract. Option products (such as interest rate swaps) provide the buyer the right, but not the obligation to enter the contract under the terms specified.
Derivatives can be used either for risk management (i.e. to "hedge" by providing offsetting compensation in case of an undesired event, a kind of "insurance") or for speculation (i.e. making a financial "bet"). This distinction is important because the former is a prudent aspect of operations and financial management for many firms across many industries; the latter offers managers and investors a risky opportunity to increase profit, which may not be properly disclosed to stakeholders.
Along with many other financial products and services, derivatives reform is an element of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. The Act delegated many rule-making details of regulatory oversight to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and those details are not finalized nor fully implemented as of late 2012.
Size of market
[edit]To give an idea of the size of the derivative market, The Economist has reported that as of June 2011, the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market amounted to approximately $700 trillion, and the size of the market traded on exchanges totaled an additional $83 trillion.[12] For the fourth quarter 2017 the European Securities Market Authority estimated the size of European derivatives market at a size of €660 trillion with 74 million outstanding contracts.[13]
However, these are "notional" values, and some economists say that these aggregated values greatly exaggerate the market value and the true credit risk faced by the parties involved. For example, in 2010, while the aggregate of OTC derivatives exceeded $600 trillion, the value of the market was estimated to be much lower, at $21 trillion. The credit-risk equivalent of the derivative contracts was estimated at $3.3 trillion.[14]
Still, even these scaled-down figures represent huge amounts of money. For perspective, the budget for total expenditure of the United States government during 2012 was $3.5 trillion,[15] and the total current value of the U.S. stock market is an estimated $23 trillion.[16] Meanwhile, the global annual Gross Domestic Product is about $65 trillion.[17]
At least for one type of derivative, credit default swaps (CDS), for which the inherent risk is considered high [by whom?], the higher, nominal value remains relevant. It was this type of derivative that investment magnate Warren Buffett referred to in his famous 2002 speech in which he warned against "financial weapons of mass destruction".[18] CDS notional value in early 2012 amounted to $25.5 trillion, down from $55 trillion in 2008.[19]
Usage
[edit]Derivatives are used for the following:
- Hedge or to mitigate risk in the underlying, by entering into a derivative contract whose value moves in the opposite direction to their underlying position and cancels part or all of it out[20][21]
- Create option ability where the value of the derivative is linked to a specific condition or event (e.g., the underlying reaching a specific price level)
- Obtain exposure to the underlying where it is not possible to trade in the underlying (e.g., weather derivatives)[22]
- Provide leverage (or gearing), such that a small movement in the underlying value can cause a large difference in the value of the derivative[23]
- Speculate and make a profit if the value of the underlying asset moves the way they expect (e.g. moves in a given direction, stays in or out of a specified range, reaches a certain level)
- Switch asset allocations between different asset classes without disturbing the underlying assets, as part of transition management
- Avoid paying taxes. For example, an equity swap allows an investor to receive steady payments, e.g. based on SONIA rate, while avoiding paying capital gains tax and keeping the stock.
- For arbitraging purpose, allowing a riskless profit by simultaneously entering into transactions into two or more markets.[24]
Mechanics and valuation
[edit]Lock products are theoretically valued at zero at the time of execution and thus do not typically require an up-front exchange between the parties. Based upon movements in the underlying asset over time, however, the value of the contract will fluctuate, and the derivative may be either an asset (i.e., "in the money") or a liability (i.e., "out of the money") at different points throughout its life. Importantly, either party is therefore exposed to the credit quality of its counterparty and is interested in protecting itself in an event of default.
Option products have immediate value at the outset because they provide specified protection (intrinsic value) over a given time period (time value). One common form of option product familiar to many consumers is insurance for homes and automobiles. The insured would pay more for a policy with greater liability protections (intrinsic value) and one that extends for a year rather than six months (time value). Because of the immediate option value, the option purchaser typically pays an up front premium. Just like for lock products, movements in the underlying asset will cause the option's intrinsic value to change over time while its time value deteriorates steadily until the contract expires. An important difference between a lock product is that, after the initial exchange, the option purchaser has no further liability to its counterparty; upon maturity, the purchaser will execute the option if it has positive value (i.e., if it is "in the money") or expire at no cost (other than to the initial premium) (i.e., if the option is "out of the money").
Hedging
[edit]Derivatives allow risk related to the price of the underlying asset to be transferred from one party to another. For example, a wheat farmer and a miller could sign a futures contract to exchange a specified amount of cash for a specified amount of wheat in the future. Both parties have reduced a future risk: for the wheat farmer, the uncertainty of the price, and for the miller, the availability of wheat. However, there is still the risk that no wheat will be available because of events unspecified by the contract, such as the weather, or that one party will renege on the contract. Although a third party, called a clearing house, insures a futures contract, not all derivatives are insured against counter-party risk.
From another perspective, the farmer and the miller both reduce a risk and acquire a risk when they sign the futures contract: the farmer reduces the risk that the price of wheat will fall below the price specified in the contract and acquires the risk that the price of wheat will rise above the price specified in the contract (thereby losing additional income that he could have earned). The miller, on the other hand, acquires the risk that the price of wheat will fall below the price specified in the contract (thereby paying more in the future than he otherwise would have) and reduces the risk that the price of wheat will rise above the price specified in the contract. In this sense, one party is the insurer (risk taker) for one type of risk, and the counter-party is the insurer (risk taker) for another type of risk.
Hedging also occurs when an individual or institution buys an asset (such as a commodity, a bond that has coupon payments, a stock that pays dividends, and so on) and sells it using a futures contract. The individual or institution has access to the asset for a specified amount of time, and can then sell it in the future at a specified price according to the futures contract. Of course, this allows the individual or institution the benefit of holding the asset, while reducing the risk that the future selling price will deviate unexpectedly from the market's current assessment of the future value of the asset.

Derivatives trading of this kind may serve the financial interests of certain particular businesses.[25] For example, a corporation borrows a large sum of money at a specific interest rate.[26] The interest rate on the loan reprices every six months. The corporation is concerned that the rate of interest may be much higher in six months. The corporation could buy a forward rate agreement (FRA), which is a contract to pay a fixed rate of interest six months after purchases on a notional amount of money.[27] If the interest rate after six months is above the contract rate, the seller will pay the difference to the corporation, or FRA buyer. If the rate is lower, the corporation will pay the difference to the seller. The purchase of the FRA serves to reduce the uncertainty concerning the rate increase and stabilize earnings.
Speculation
[edit]Derivatives can be used to acquire risk, rather than to hedge against risk. Thus, some individuals and institutions will enter into a derivative contract to speculate on the value of the underlying asset. Speculators look to buy an asset in the future at a low price according to a derivative contract when the future market price is high, or to sell an asset in the future at a high price according to a derivative contract when the future market price is less.
Speculative trading in derivatives gained a great deal of notoriety in 1995 when Nick Leeson, a trader at Barings Bank, made poor and unauthorized investments in futures contracts. Through a combination of poor judgment, lack of oversight by the bank's management and regulators, and unfortunate events like the Kobe earthquake, Leeson incurred a $1.3 billion loss that bankrupted the centuries-old institution.[28]
Arbitrage
[edit]Individuals and institutions may also look for arbitrage opportunities, as when the current buying price of an asset falls below the price specified in a futures contract to sell the asset.
Proportion used for hedging and speculation
[edit]The true proportion of derivatives contracts used for hedging purposes is unknown,[29] but it appears to be relatively small.[30][31] Also, derivatives contracts account for only 3–6% of the median firms' total currency and interest rate exposure.[32] Nonetheless, we know that many firms' derivatives activities have at least some speculative component for a variety of reasons.[32]
Types
[edit]In broad terms, there are two groups of derivative contracts, which are distinguished by the way they are traded in the market:
Over-the-counter derivatives
[edit]Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, exotic options – and other exotic derivatives – are almost always traded in this way. The OTC derivative market is the largest market for derivatives, and is largely unregulated with respect to disclosure of information between the parties, since the OTC market is made up of banks and other highly sophisticated parties, such as hedge funds. Reporting of OTC amounts is difficult because trades can occur in private, without activity being visible on any exchanges.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, who first surveyed OTC derivatives in 1995,[33] reported that the "gross market value, which represent the cost of replacing all open contracts at the prevailing market prices, ... increased by 74% since 2004, to $11 trillion at the end of June 2007 (BIS 2007:24)."[33] Positions in the OTC derivatives market increased to $516 trillion at the end of June 2007, 135% higher than the level recorded in 2004. The total outstanding notional amount is US$708 trillion (as of June 2011).[34] Of this total notional amount, 67% are interest rate contracts, 8% are credit default swaps (CDSs), 9% are foreign exchange contracts, 2% are commodity contracts, 1% are equity contracts, and 12% are other. Because OTC derivatives are not traded on an exchange, there is no central counter-party. Therefore, they are subject to counterparty risk, like an ordinary contract, since each counter-party relies on the other to perform.
Exchange-traded derivatives
[edit]Exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) are those derivatives instruments that are traded via specialized derivatives exchanges or other exchanges. A derivatives exchange is a market where individuals trade standardized contracts that have been defined by the exchange.[8] A derivatives exchange acts as an intermediary to all related transactions, and takes initial margin from both sides of the trade to act as a guarantee. The world's largest[35] derivatives exchanges (by number of transactions) are the Korea Exchange (which lists KOSPI Index Futures & Options), Eurex (which lists a wide range of European products such as interest rate & index products), and CME Group (made up of the 2007 merger of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade and the 2008 acquisition of the New York Mercantile Exchange). According to BIS, the combined turnover in the world's derivatives exchanges totaled US$344 trillion during Q4 2005. By December 2007 the Bank for International Settlements reported[33] that "derivatives traded on exchanges surged 27% to a record $681 trillion."[33]: 22
Inverse ETFs and leveraged ETFs
[edit]Inverse exchange-traded funds (IETFs) and leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs)[36] are two special types of exchange traded funds (ETFs) that are available to common traders and investors on major exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq. To maintain these products' net asset value, these funds' administrators must employ more sophisticated financial engineering methods than what's usually required for maintenance of traditional ETFs. These instruments must also be regularly rebalanced and re-indexed each day.
Common derivative contract
[edit]Some of the common variants of derivative contracts are as follows:
- Forwards: tailored contract between two parties, where payment takes place at a specific time in the future at today's pre-determined price.
- Futures: contracts to buy or sell an asset on a future date at a price specified today. A futures contract differs from a forward contract in that the futures contract is a standardized contract written by a clearing house that operates an exchange where the contract can be bought and sold; the forward contract is a non-standardized contract written by the parties themselves.
- Options: contracts that give the owner the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of a call option) or sell (in the case of a put option) an asset. The price at which the sale takes place is known as the strike price, and is specified at the time the parties enter into the option. The option contract also specifies a maturity date. In the case of a European option, the owner has the right to require the sale to take place on (but not before) the maturity date; in the case of an American option, the owner can require the sale to take place at any time up to the maturity date. If the owner of the contract exercises this right, the counter-party has the obligation to carry out the transaction. Options are of two types: call option and put option.
- Binary options: contracts that provide the owner with an all-or-nothing profit profile.
- Warrants: apart from the commonly used short-dated options which have a maximum maturity period of one year, there exist certain long-dated options as well, known as warrants. These are generally traded over the counter.
- Swaps: contracts to exchange cash (flows) on or before a specified future date based on the underlying value of currencies exchange rates, bonds/interest rates, commodities exchange, stocks or other assets.
- Swaps can basically be categorized into Interest rate swap and Currency swap.[37]
Some common examples of these derivatives are the following:
| UNDERLYING | CONTRACT TYPES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange-traded futures | Exchange-traded options | OTC swap | OTC forward | OTC option | |
| Equity | DJIA Index future Single-stock future |
Option on DJIA Index future Single-share option |
Equity swap | Back-to-back Repurchase agreement |
Stock option Warrant Turbo warrant |
| Interest rate | Eurodollar future Euribor future |
Option on Eurodollar future Option on Euribor future |
Interest rate swap | Forward rate agreement | Interest rate cap and floor Swaption Basis swap Bond option |
| Credit | Bond future | Option on Bond future | Credit default swap Total return swap |
Repurchase agreement | Credit default option |
| Foreign exchange | Currency future | Option on currency future | Currency swap | Currency forward | Currency option |
| Commodity | WTI crude oil futures | Weather derivative | Commodity swap | Iron ore forward contract | Gold option |
Collateralized debt obligation
[edit]A collateralized debt obligation (CDO) is a type of structured asset-backed security (ABS). An "asset-backed security" is used as an umbrella term for a type of security backed by a pool of assets – including collateralized debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Example: "The capital market in which asset-backed securities are issued and traded is composed of three main categories: ABS, MBS and CDOs".[38]) – and sometimes for a particular type of that security – one backed by consumer loans (example: "As a rule of thumb, securitization issues backed by mortgages are called MBS, and securitization issues backed by debt obligations are called CDO, [and] Securitization issues backed by consumer-backed products – car loans, consumer loans and credit cards, among others – are called ABS.) [39] Originally developed for the corporate debt markets, over time CDOs evolved to encompass the mortgage and mortgage-backed security (MBS) markets.[40]
Like other private-label securities backed by assets, a CDO can be thought of as a promise to pay investors in a prescribed sequence, based on the cash flow the CDO collects from the pool of bonds or other assets it owns. The CDO is "sliced" into "tranches", which "catch" the cash flow of interest and principal payments in sequence based on seniority.[41] If some loans default and the cash collected by the CDO is insufficient to pay all of its investors, those in the lowest, most "junior" tranches suffer losses first. The last to lose payment from default are the safest, most senior tranches. Consequently, coupon payments (and interest rates) vary by tranche with the safest/most senior tranches paying the lowest and the lowest tranches paying the highest rates to compensate for higher default risk. As an example, a CDO might issue the following tranches in order of safeness: Senior AAA (sometimes known as "super senior"); Junior AAA; AA; A; BBB; Residual.[42]
Separate special-purpose entities – rather than the parent investment bank – issue the CDOs and pay interest to investors. As CDOs developed, some sponsors repackaged tranches into yet another iteration called "CDO-Squared" or the "CDOs of CDOs".[42] In the early 2000s, CDOs were generally diversified,[43] but by 2006–2007 – when the CDO market grew to hundreds of billions of dollars – this changed. CDO collateral became dominated not by loans, but by lower level (BBB or A) tranches recycled from other asset-backed securities, whose assets were usually non-prime mortgages.[44] These CDOs have been called "the engine that powered the mortgage supply chain" for nonprime mortgages,[45] and are credited with giving lenders greater incentive to make non-prime loans[46] leading up to the 2007–09 subprime mortgage crisis.
Credit default swap
[edit]A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer (the creditor of the reference loan) in the event of a loan default (by the debtor) or other credit event. The buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments (the CDS "fee" or "spread") to the seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if the loan defaults. It was invented by Blythe Masters from JP Morgan in 1994. In the event of default the buyer of the CDS receives compensation (usually the face value of the loan), and the seller of the CDS takes possession of the defaulted loan. However, anyone with sufficient collateral to trade with a bank or hedge fund can purchase a CDS, even buyers who do not hold the loan instrument and who have no direct insurable interest in the loan (these are called "naked" CDSs). If there are more CDS contracts outstanding than bonds in existence, a protocol exists to hold a credit event auction; the payment received is usually substantially less than the face value of the loan.[47] Credit default swaps have existed since the early 1990s, and increased in use after 2003. By the end of 2007, the outstanding CDS amount was $62.2 trillion,[48] falling to $26.3 trillion by mid-year 2010[49] but reportedly $25.5[50] trillion in early 2012. CDSs are not traded on an exchange and there is no required reporting of transactions to a government agency.[51] During the 2008 financial crisis, the lack of transparency in this large market became a concern to regulators as it could pose a systemic risk.[52]
[53][54] In March 2010, the [DTCC] Trade Information Warehouse announced it would give regulators greater access to its credit default swaps database.[55] CDS data can be used by financial professionals, regulators, and the media to monitor how the market views credit risk of any entity on which a CDS is available, which can be compared to that provided by credit rating agencies. U.S. courts may soon be following suit. Most CDSs are documented using standard forms drafted by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), although there are many variants.[52] In addition to the basic, single-name swaps, there are basket default swaps (BDSs), index CDSs, funded CDSs (also called credit-linked notes), as well as loan-only credit default swaps (LCDS). In addition to corporations and governments, the reference entity can include a special-purpose vehicle issuing asset-backed securities.[56] Some claim that derivatives such as CDS are potentially dangerous in that they combine priority in bankruptcy with a lack of transparency. A CDS can be unsecured (without collateral) and be at higher risk for a default.
Forwards
[edit]In finance, a forward contract or simply a forward is a non-standardized contract between two parties to buy or to sell an asset at a specified future time at an amount agreed upon today, making it a type of derivative instrument.[8][57] This is in contrast to a spot contract, which is an agreement to buy or sell an asset on its spot date, which may vary depending on the instrument, for example most of the FX contracts have Spot Date two business days from today. The party agreeing to buy the underlying asset in the future assumes a long position, and the party agreeing to sell the asset in the future assumes a short position. The price agreed upon is called the delivery price, which is equal to the forward price at the time the contract is entered into. The price of the underlying instrument, in whatever form, is paid before control of the instrument changes. This is one of the many forms of buy/sell orders where the time and date of trade is not the same as the value date where the securities themselves are exchanged.
The forward price of such a contract is commonly contrasted with the spot price, which is the price at which the asset changes hands on the spot date. The difference between the spot and the forward price is the forward premium or forward discount, generally considered in the form of a profit, or loss, by the purchasing party. Forwards, like other derivative securities, can be used to hedge risk (typically currency or exchange rate risk), as a means of speculation, or to allow a party to take advantage of a quality of the underlying instrument which is time-sensitive.
A closely related contract is a futures contract; they differ in certain respects. Forward contracts are very similar to futures contracts, except they are not exchange-traded, or defined on standardized assets.[58] Forwards also typically have no interim partial settlements or "true-ups" in margin requirements like futures – such that the parties do not exchange additional property securing the party at gain and the entire unrealized gain or loss builds up while the contract is open. However, being traded over the counter (OTC), forward contracts specification can be customized and may include mark-to-market and daily margin calls. Hence, a forward contract arrangement might call for the loss party to pledge collateral or additional collateral to better secure the party at gain.[clarification needed] In other words, the terms of the forward contract will determine the collateral calls based upon certain "trigger" events relevant to a particular counterparty such as among other things, credit ratings, value of assets under management or redemptions over a specific time frame (e.g., quarterly, annually).
Futures
[edit]In finance, a 'futures contract' (more colloquially, futures) is a standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified asset of standardized quantity and quality for a price agreed upon today (the futures price) with delivery and payment occurring at a specified future date, the delivery date, making it a derivative product (i.e. a financial product that is derived from an underlying asset). The contracts are negotiated at a futures exchange, which acts as an intermediary between buyer and seller. The party agreeing to buy the underlying asset in the future, the "buyer" of the contract, is said to be "long", and the party agreeing to sell the asset in the future, the "seller" of the contract, is said to be "short".
While the futures contract specifies a trade taking place in the future, the purpose of the futures exchange is to act as intermediary and mitigate the risk of default by either party in the intervening period. For this reason, the futures exchange requires both parties to put up an initial amount of cash (performance bond), the margin. Margins, sometimes set as a percentage of the value of the futures contract, need to be proportionally maintained at all times during the life of the contract to underpin this mitigation because the price of the contract will vary in keeping with supply and demand and will change daily and thus one party or the other will theoretically be making or losing money. To mitigate risk and the possibility of default by either party, the product is marked to market on a daily basis whereby the difference between the prior agreed-upon price and the actual daily futures price is settled on a daily basis. This is sometimes known as the variation margin where the futures exchange will draw money out of the losing party's margin account and put it into the other party's thus ensuring that the correct daily loss or profit is reflected in the respective account. If the margin account goes below a certain value set by the Exchange, then a margin call is made and the account owner must replenish the margin account. This process is known as "marking to market". Thus on the delivery date, the amount exchanged is not the specified price on the contract but the spot value (i.e., the original value agreed upon, since any gain or loss has already been previously settled by marking to market). Upon marketing the strike price is often reached and creates much income for the "caller".
A closely related contract is a forward contract. A forward is like a futures in that it specifies the exchange of goods for a specified price at a specified future date. However, a forward is not traded on an exchange and thus does not have the interim partial payments due to marking to market. Nor is the contract standardized, as on the exchange. Unlike an option, both parties of a futures contract must fulfill the contract on the delivery date. The seller delivers the underlying asset to the buyer, or, if it is a cash-settled futures contract, then cash is transferred from the futures trader who sustained a loss to the one who made a profit. To exit the commitment prior to the settlement date, the holder of a futures position can close out its contract obligations by taking the opposite position on another futures contract on the same asset and settlement date. The difference in futures prices is then a profit or loss.
Mortgage-backed securities
[edit]A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is an asset-backed security that is secured by a mortgage, or more commonly a collection ("pool") of sometimes hundreds of mortgages. The mortgages are sold to a group of individuals (a government agency or investment bank) that "securitizes", or packages, the loans together into a security that can be sold to investors. The mortgages of an MBS may be residential or commercial, depending on whether it is an Agency MBS or a Non-Agency MBS; in the United States they may be issued by structures set up by government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or they can be "private-label", issued by structures set up by investment banks. The structure of the MBS may be known as "pass-through", where the interest and principal payments from the borrower or homebuyer pass through it to the MBS holder, or it may be more complex, made up of a pool of other MBSs. Other types of MBS include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs, often structured as real estate mortgage investment conduits) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).[59]
The shares of subprime MBSs issued by various structures, such as CMOs, are not identical but rather issued as tranches (French for "slices"), each with a different level of priority in the debt repayment stream, giving them different levels of risk and reward. Tranches – especially the lower-priority, higher-interest tranches – of an MBS are/were often further repackaged and resold as collaterized debt obligations.[60] These subprime MBSs issued by investment banks were a major issue in the subprime mortgage crisis of 2006–2008 . The total face value of an MBS decreases over time, because like mortgages, and unlike bonds, and most other fixed-income securities, the principal in an MBS is not paid back as a single payment to the bond holder at maturity but rather is paid along with the interest in each periodic payment (monthly, quarterly, etc.). This decrease in face value is measured by the MBS's "factor", the percentage of the original "face" that remains to be repaid.
Options
[edit]In finance, an option is a contract which gives the buyer (the owner) the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset or instrument at a specified strike price on or before a specified date. The seller has the corresponding obligation to fulfill the transaction – that is to sell or buy – if the buyer (owner) "exercises" the option. The buyer pays a premium to the seller for this right. An option that conveys to the owner the right to buy something at a certain price is a "call option"; an option that conveys the right of the owner to sell something at a certain price is a "put option". Both are commonly traded, but for clarity, the call option is more frequently discussed. Options valuation is a topic of ongoing research in academic and practical finance. In basic terms, the value of an option is commonly decomposed into two parts:
- The first part is the "intrinsic value", defined as the difference between the market value of the underlying and the strike price of the given option.
- The second part is the "time value", which depends on a set of other factors which, through a multivariable, non-linear interrelationship, reflect the discounted expected value of that difference at expiration.
Although options valuation has been studied since the 19th century, the contemporary approach is based on the Black–Scholes model, which was first published in 1973.[61][unreliable source?][62]
Options contracts have been known for many centuries. However, both trading activity and academic interest increased when, as from 1973, options were issued with standardized terms and traded through a guaranteed clearing house at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Today, many options are created in a standardized form and traded through clearing houses on regulated options exchanges, while other over-the-counter options are written as bilateral, customized contracts between a single buyer and seller, one or both of which may be a dealer or market-maker. Options are part of a larger class of financial instruments known as derivative products or simply derivatives.[8][63]
Swaps
[edit]A swap is a derivative in which two counterparties exchange cash flows of one party's financial instrument for those of the other party's financial instrument. The benefits in question depend on the type of financial instruments involved. For example, in the case of a swap involving two bonds, the benefits in question can be the periodic interest (coupon) payments associated with such bonds. Specifically, two counterparties agree to the exchange one stream of cash flows against another stream. These streams are called the swap's "legs". The swap agreement defines the dates when the cash flows are to be paid and the way they are accrued and calculated. Usually at the time when the contract is initiated, at least one of these series of cash flows is determined by an uncertain variable such as a floating interest rate, foreign exchange rate, equity price, or commodity price.[8]
The cash flows are calculated over a notional principal amount. Contrary to a future, a forward or an option, the notional amount is usually not exchanged between counterparties. Consequently, swaps can be in cash or collateral. Swaps can be used to hedge certain risks such as interest rate risk, or to speculate on changes in the expected direction of underlying prices.
Swaps were first introduced to the public in 1981 when IBM and the World Bank entered into a swap agreement.[64] Today, swaps are among the most heavily traded financial contracts in the world: the total amount of interest rates and currency swaps outstanding is more than $348 trillion in 2010, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).[citation needed] The five generic types of swaps, in order of their quantitative importance, are: interest rate swaps, currency swaps, credit swaps, commodity swaps and equity swaps (there are many other types).
Economic function of the derivative market
[edit]Some of the salient economic functions of the derivative market include:
- Prices in a structured derivative market not only replicate the discernment of the market participants about the future but also lead the prices of underlying to the professed future level. On the expiration of the derivative contract, the prices of derivatives congregate with the prices of the underlying. Therefore, derivatives are essential tools to determine both current and future prices.
- The derivatives market reallocates risk from the people who prefer risk aversion to the people who have an appetite for risk.
- The intrinsic nature of derivatives market associates them to the underlying spot market. Due to derivatives there is a considerable increase in trade volumes of the underlying spot market. The dominant factor behind such an escalation is increased participation by additional players who would not have otherwise participated due to absence of any procedure to transfer risk.
- As supervision, reconnaissance of the activities of various participants becomes tremendously difficult in assorted markets; the establishment of an organized form of market becomes all the more imperative. Therefore, in the presence of an organized derivatives market, speculation can be controlled, resulting in a more meticulous environment.
- Third parties can use publicly available derivative prices as educated predictions of uncertain future outcomes, for example, the likelihood that a corporation will default on its debts.
In a nutshell, there is a substantial increase in savings and investment in the long run due to augmented activities by derivative market participant.[65]
Valuation
[edit]
Market and arbitrage-free prices
[edit]Two common measures of value are:
- Market price, i.e. the price at which traders are willing to buy or sell the contract
- Arbitrage-free price, meaning that no risk-free profits can be made by trading in these contracts (see rational pricing)
Determining the market price
[edit]For exchange-traded derivatives, market price is usually transparent (often published in real time by the exchange, based on all the current bids and offers placed on that particular contract at any one time). Complications can arise with OTC or floor-traded contracts though, as trading is handled manually, making it difficult to automatically broadcast prices. In particular with OTC contracts, there is no central exchange to collate and disseminate prices.
Determining the arbitrage-free price
[edit]The arbitrage-free price for a derivatives contract can be complex, and there are many different variables to consider. Arbitrage-free pricing is a central topic of financial mathematics. For futures/forwards the arbitrage free price is relatively straightforward, involving the price of the underlying together with the cost of carry (income received less interest costs), although there can be complexities.
However, for options and more complex derivatives, pricing involves developing a complex pricing model: understanding the stochastic process of the price of the underlying asset is often crucial. A key equation for the theoretical valuation of options is the Black–Scholes formula, which is based on the assumption that the cash flows from a European stock option can be replicated by a continuous buying and selling strategy using only the stock. A simplified version of this valuation technique is the binomial options model.
OTC represents the biggest challenge in using models to price derivatives. Since these contracts are not publicly traded, no market price is available to validate the theoretical valuation. Most of the model's results are input-dependent (meaning the final price depends heavily on how we derive the pricing inputs).[68] Therefore, it is common that OTC derivatives are priced by Independent Agents that both counterparties involved in the deal designate upfront (when signing the contract).
Risks
[edit]Derivatives are often subject to the following criticisms; particularly since the 2008 financial crisis, the discipline of Risk management has developed attempting to address the below and other risks – see Financial risk management § Investment banking.
Hidden tail risk
[edit]According to Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "... it may well be that the managers of these firms [investment funds] have figured out the correlations between the various instruments they hold and believe they are hedged. Yet as Chan and others (2005) point out, the lessons of summer 1998 following the default on Russian government debt is that correlations that are zero or negative in normal times can turn overnight to one – a phenomenon they term "phase lock-in". A hedged position "can become unhedged at the worst times, inflicting substantial losses on those who mistakenly believe they are protected".[69] See the FRTB framework, which seeks to address this to some extent.
Leverage
[edit]The use of derivatives can result in large losses because of the use of leverage, or borrowing. Derivatives allow investors to earn large returns from small movements in the underlying asset's price. However, investors could lose large amounts if the price of the underlying moves against them significantly. There have been several instances of massive losses in derivative markets, such as the following:
- American International Group (AIG) lost more than US$18 billion through a subsidiary over the preceding three quarters on credit default swaps (CDSs).[70] The United States Federal Reserve Bank announced the creation of a secured credit facility of up to US$85 billion, to prevent the company's collapse by enabling AIG to meet its obligations to deliver additional collateral to its credit default swap trading partners.[71]
- The loss of US$7.2 Billion by Société Générale in January 2008 through mis-use of futures contracts.
- The loss of US$6.4 billion in the failed fund Amaranth Advisors, which was long natural gas in September 2006 when the price plummeted.
- The loss of US$4.6 billion in the failed fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.
- The loss of US$1.3 billion equivalent in oil derivatives in 1993 and 1994 by Metallgesellschaft AG.[72]
- The loss of US$1.2 billion equivalent in equity derivatives in 1995 by Barings Bank.[73]
- UBS AG, Switzerland's biggest bank, suffered a $2 billion loss through unauthorized trading discovered in September 2011.[74]
Derivatives typically have a large notional value. As such, there is the danger that their use could result in losses for which the investor would be unable to compensate. The possibility that this could lead to a chain reaction ensuing in an economic crisis was pointed out by famed investor Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 annual report. Buffett called them 'financial weapons of mass destruction.' A potential problem with derivatives is that they comprise an increasingly larger notional amount of assets which may lead to distortions in the underlying capital and equities markets themselves. Investors begin to look at the derivatives markets to make a decision to buy or sell securities and so what was originally meant to be a market to transfer risk now becomes a leading indicator.(See Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report for 2002)
Counterparty risk
[edit]Some derivatives (especially swaps) expose investors to counterparty risk, or risk arising from the other party in a financial transaction. Counterparty risk results from the differences in the current price versus the expected future settlement price.[75] Different types of derivatives have different levels of counter party risk. For example, standardized stock options by law require the party at risk to have a certain amount deposited with the exchange, showing that they can pay for any losses; banks that help businesses swap variable for fixed rates on loans may do credit checks on both parties. However, in private agreements between two companies, for example, there may not be benchmarks for performing due diligence and risk analysis.
Financial reform and government regulation
[edit]Under US law and the laws of most other developed countries, derivatives have special legal exemptions that make them a particularly attractive legal form to extend credit. The strong creditor protections afforded to derivatives counterparties, in combination with their complexity and lack of transparency however, can cause capital markets to underprice credit risk. This can contribute to credit booms, and increase systemic risks. Indeed, the use of derivatives to conceal credit risk from third parties while protecting derivative counterparties contributed to the 2008 financial crisis in the United States.
In the context of a 2010 examination of the ICE Trust, an industry self-regulatory body, Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission which regulates most derivatives, was quoted saying that the derivatives marketplace as it functions now "adds up to higher costs to all Americans". More oversight of the banks in this market is needed, he also said. Additionally, the report said, "[t]he Department of Justice is looking into derivatives, too. The department's antitrust unit is actively investigating 'the possibility of anticompetitive practices in the credit derivatives clearing, trading and information services industries', according to a department spokeswoman."[76]
For legislators and committees responsible for financial reform related to derivatives in the United States and elsewhere, distinguishing between hedging and speculative derivatives activities has been a nontrivial challenge. The distinction is critical because regulation should help to isolate and curtail speculation with derivatives, especially for "systemically significant" institutions whose default could be large enough to threaten the entire financial system. At the same time, the legislation should allow for responsible parties to hedge risk without unduly tying up working capital as collateral that firms may better employ elsewhere in their operations and investment.[77] In this regard, it is important to distinguish between financial (e.g. banks) and non-financial end-users of derivatives (e.g. real estate development companies) because these firms' derivatives usage is inherently different. More importantly, the reasonable collateral that secures these different counterparties can be very different. The distinction between these firms is not always straight forward (e.g., hedge funds or even some private equity firms do not neatly fit either category). Finally, even financial users must be differentiated, as 'large' banks may classified as "systemically significant" whose derivatives activities must be more tightly monitored and restricted than those of smaller, local and regional banks.
Over-the-counter dealing will be less common as the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act comes into effect. The law mandated the clearing of certain swaps at registered exchanges and imposed various restrictions on derivatives. To implement Dodd-Frank, the CFTC developed new rules in at least 30 areas. The Commission determines which swaps are subject to mandatory clearing and whether a derivatives exchange is eligible to clear a certain type of swap contract.
Nonetheless, the above and other challenges of the rule-making process have delayed full enactment of aspects of the legislation relating to derivatives. The challenges are further complicated by the necessity to orchestrate globalized financial reform among the nations that comprise the world's major financial markets, a primary responsibility of the Financial Stability Board whose progress is ongoing.[78]
In the U.S., by February 2012 the combined effort of the SEC and CFTC had produced over 70 proposed and final derivatives rules.[79] However, both of them had delayed adoption of a number of derivatives regulations because of the burden of other rule-making, litigation and opposition to the rules, and many core definitions (such as the terms "swap", "security-based swap", "swap dealer", "security-based swap dealer", "major swap participant" and "major security-based swap participant") had still not been adopted.[79] SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro opined: "At the end of the day, it probably does not make sense to harmonize everything [between the SEC and CFTC rules] because some of these products are quite different and certainly the market structures are quite different."[80] On February 11, 2015, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released two final rules toward establishing a reporting and public disclosure framework for security-based swap transaction data.[81] The two rules are not completely harmonized with the requirements with CFTC requirements.

In November 2012, the SEC and regulators from Australia, Brazil, the European Union, Hong Kong, Japan, Ontario, Quebec, Singapore, and Switzerland met to discuss reforming the OTC derivatives market, as had been agreed by leaders at the 2009 G-20 Pittsburgh summit in September 2009.[82] In December 2012, they released a joint statement to the effect that they recognized that the market is a global one and "firmly support the adoption and enforcement of robust and consistent standards in and across jurisdictions", with the goals of mitigating risk, improving transparency, protecting against market abuse, preventing regulatory gaps, reducing the potential for arbitrage opportunities, and fostering a level playing field for market participants.[82] They also agreed on the need to reduce regulatory uncertainty and provide market participants with sufficient clarity on laws and regulations by avoiding, to the extent possible, the application of conflicting rules to the same entities and transactions, and minimizing the application of inconsistent and duplicative rules.[82] At the same time, they noted that "complete harmonization – perfect alignment of rules across jurisdictions" would be difficult, because of jurisdictions' differences in law, policy, markets, implementation timing, and legislative and regulatory processes.[82]
On December 20, 2013, the CFTC provided information on its swaps regulation "comparability" determinations. The release addressed the CFTC's cross-border compliance exceptions. Specifically it addressed which entity level and in some cases transaction-level requirements in six jurisdictions (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Hong Kong, Japan, and Switzerland) it found comparable to its own rules, thus permitting non-US swap dealers, major swap participants, and the foreign branches of US Swap Dealers and major swap participants in these jurisdictions to comply with local rules in lieu of Commission rules.[83]
Reporting
[edit]Mandatory reporting regulations are being finalized in a number of countries, such as Dodd Frank Act in the US, the European Market Infrastructure Regulations (EMIR) in Europe, as well as regulations in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Canada, and other countries.[84] The OTC Derivatives Regulators Forum (ODRF), a group of over 40 worldwide regulators, provided trade repositories with a set of guidelines regarding data access to regulators, and the Financial Stability Board and CPSS IOSCO also made recommendations in with regard to reporting.[84]
DTCC, through its "Global Trade Repository" (GTR) service, manages global trade repositories for interest rates, and commodities, foreign exchange, credit, and equity derivatives.[84] It makes global trade reports to the CFTC in the U.S., and plans to do the same for ESMA in Europe and for regulators in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore.[84] It covers cleared and uncleared OTC derivatives products, whether or not a trade is electronically processed or bespoke.[84][85][86]
Glossary
[edit]- Bilateral netting: A legally enforceable arrangement between a bank and a counter-party that creates a single legal obligation covering all included individual contracts. This means that a bank's obligation, in the event of the default or insolvency of one of the parties, would be the net sum of all positive and negative fair values of contracts included in the bilateral netting arrangement.
- Counterparty: The legal and financial term for the other party in a financial transaction.
- Credit derivative: A contract that transfers credit risk from a protection buyer to a credit protection seller. Credit derivative products can take many forms, such as credit default swaps, credit linked notes and total return swaps.
- Derivative: A financial contract whose value is derived from the performance of assets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, or indexes. Derivative transactions include a wide assortment of financial contracts including structured debt obligations and deposits, swaps, futures, options, caps, floors, collars, forwards and various combinations thereof.
- Exchange-traded derivative contracts: Standardized derivative contracts (e.g., futures contracts and options) that are transacted on an organized futures exchange.
- Gross negative fair value: The sum of the fair values of contracts where the bank owes money to its counter-parties, without taking into account netting. This represents the maximum losses the bank's counter-parties would incur if the bank defaults and there is no netting of contracts, and no bank collateral was held by the counter-parties.
- Gross positive fair value: The sum total of the fair values of contracts where the bank is owed money by its counter-parties, without taking into account netting. This represents the maximum losses a bank could incur if all its counter-parties default and there is no netting of contracts, and the bank holds no counter-party collateral.
- High-risk mortgage securities: Securities where the price or expected average life is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, as determined by the U.S. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council policy statement on high-risk mortgage securities.
- Notional amount: The nominal or face amount that is used to calculate payments made on swaps and other risk management products. This amount generally does not change hands and is thus referred to as notional.
- Over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts: Privately negotiated derivative contracts that are transacted off organized futures exchanges.
- Structured notes: Non-mortgage-backed debt securities, whose cash flow characteristics depend on one or more indices and / or have embedded forwards or options.
- Total risk-based capital: The sum of tier 1 plus tier 2 capital. Tier 1 capital consists of common shareholders equity, perpetual preferred shareholders equity with noncumulative dividends, retained earnings, and minority interests in the equity accounts of consolidated subsidiaries. Tier 2 capital consists of subordinated debt, intermediate-term preferred stock, cumulative and long-term preferred stock, and a portion of a bank's allowance for loan and lease losses.
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b Durbin, Michael (2011). All About Derivatives: The Easy Way to Get Started (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Education LLC. p. 1. ISBN 978-0-07-174351-8.
- ^ Derivatives (Report). Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, U.S. Department of Treasury. Retrieved February 15, 2013.
A derivative is a financial contract whose value is derived from the performance of some underlying market factors, such as interest rates, currency exchange rates, and commodity, credit, or equity prices. Derivative transactions include an assortment of financial contracts, including structured debt obligations and deposits, swaps, futures, options, caps, floors, collars, forwards, and various combinations thereof.
- ^ "Derivative Definition", Investopedia
- ^ Koehler, Christian (May 31, 2011). "The Relationship between the Complexity of Financial Derivatives and Systemic Risk". pp. 10–11. SSRN 2511541.
- ^ Turvey, Calum G. (Autumn–Winter 2001). "Weather Derivatives for Specific Event Risks in Agriculture". Review of Agricultural Economics. 23 (2): 333–351. doi:10.1111/1467-9353.00065. JSTOR 1349952.
- ^ Durbin, Michael (2011). All About Derivatives: The Easy Way to Get Started (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Education LLC. p. 59. ISBN 978-0-07-174351-8.
- ^ Crawford, George; Sen, Bidyut (1996). Derivatives for Decision Makers: Strategic Management Issues. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780471129943. Retrieved June 15, 2016.
- ^ a b c d e Hull, John C. (2006). Options, Futures and another Derivatives (6th ed.). New Jersey: Prentice Hall. ISBN 978-0131499089.
- ^ Mark Rubinstein (1999). Rubinstein on Derivatives. Risk Books. ISBN 978-1-899332-53-3.
- ^ a b Koehler, Christian (May 31, 2011). "The Relationship between the Complexity of Financial Derivatives and Systemic Risk". p. 10. SSRN 2511541.
- ^ Kaori Suzuki; David Turner (December 10, 2005). "Sensitive politics over Japan's staple crop delays rice futures plan". The Financial Times. Retrieved October 23, 2010.
- ^ "Clear and Present Danger; Centrally cleared derivatives. (clearing houses)". The Economist. Economist Newspaper Ltd.(subscription required). April 12, 2012. Retrieved May 10, 2013.
- ^ "ESMA data analysis values EU derivatives market at €660 trillion with central clearing increasing significantly". www.esma.europa.eu. Retrieved October 19, 2018.
- ^ Liu, Qiao; Lejot, Paul (2013). "Debt, Derivatives and Complex Interactions.". Finance in Asia: Institutions, Regulation and Policy. Douglas W. Arne. New York: Routledge. p. 343. ISBN 978-0-415-42319-9.
- ^ The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (PDF). Congressional Budget Office. February 5, 2013. Retrieved March 15, 2013.
- ^ "Swapping bad ideas: A big battle is unfolding over an even bigger market". The Economist. April 27, 2013. Retrieved May 10, 2013.
- ^ "World GDP: In search of growth". The Economist. Economist Newspaper Ltd. May 25, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2013.
- ^ Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb', BBC, March 4, 2003
- ^ Sheridan, Barrett (April 2008). "600,000,000,000,000?". Newsweek Inc.[dead link]
- ^ Khullar, Sanjeev (2009). "Using Derivatives to Create Alpha". In John M. Longo (ed.). Hedge Fund Alpha: A Framework for Generating and Understanding Investment Performance. Singapore: World Scientific. p. 105. ISBN 978-981-283-465-2. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
- ^ Lemke and Lins, Soft Dollars and Other Trading Activities, §§2:47–2:54 (Thomson West, 2013–2014 ed.).
- ^ Don M. Chance; Robert Brooks (2010). "Advanced Derivatives and Strategies". Introduction to Derivatives and Risk Management (8th ed.). Mason, OH: Cengage Learning. pp. 483–515. ISBN 978-0-324-60120-6. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
- ^ Shirreff, David (2004). "Derivatives and leverage". Dealing With Financial Risk. The Economist. p. 23. ISBN 978-1-57660-162-4. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
- ^ Hull, John C. (2014). "Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (9th Edition)", Pearson, pp. 16–17. ISBN 0133456315
- ^ Peterson, Sam (2010), "There's a Derivative in Your Cereal", The Atlantic.
- ^ Chisolm, Derivatives Demystified (Wiley 2004)
- ^ Chisolm, Derivatives Demystified (Wiley 2004) Notional sum means there is no actual principal.
- ^ "How Leeson broke the bank", BBC Economy
- ^ Sergey Chernenko; Michael Faulkender (December 2011). "The Two Sides of Derivatives Usage: Hedging and Speculating with Interest Rate Swaps". The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. 46 (6): 1727–1754. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.422.7302. doi:10.1017/S0022109011000391. S2CID 13928534.
- ^ Knowledge@Wharton (2012). "The Changing Use of Derivatives: More Hedging, Less Speculation"
- ^ Guay, Wayne R.; Kothari, S.P. (2001). "How Much do Firms Hedge with Derivatives?". SSRN 253036.
- ^ a b Knowledge@Wharton (2006). "The Role of Derivatives in Corporate Finances: Are Firms Betting the Ranch?"
- ^ a b c d Ryan Stever; Christian Upper; Goetz von Peter (December 2007). BIS Quarterly Review (PDF) (Report). Bank for International Settlements.
- ^ BIS survey: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) semi-annual OTC derivatives market report, for end of June 2008, showed US$683.7 trillion total notional amounts outstanding of OTC derivatives with a gross market value of US$20 trillion. See also Prior Period Regular OTC Derivatives Market Statistics.
- ^ Futures and Options Week: According to figures published in F&O Week October 10, 2005. See also FOW Website.
- ^ Morris, Jason. "Are ETFs Considered Derivatives?". Investopedia. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
- ^ "Financial Markets: A Beginner's Module". Archived from the original on August 30, 2011. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
- ^ Vink, Dennis. "ABS, MBS and CDO compared: An empirical analysis" (PDF). August 2007. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Retrieved July 13, 2013.
- ^ Vink, Dennis. "ABS, MBS and CDO compared: An empirical analysis" (PDF). August 2007. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Retrieved July 13, 2013.; see also "What are Asset-Backed Securities?". SIFMA. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved July 13, 2013.
Asset-backed securities, called ABS, are bonds or notes backed by financial assets. Typically these assets consist of receivables other than mortgage loans, such as credit card receivables, auto loans, manufactured-housing contracts and home-equity loans.
) - ^ Lemke, Lins and Picard, Mortgage-Backed Securities, §5:15 (Thomson West, 2014).
- ^ Koehler, Christian (May 31, 2011). "The Relationship between the Complexity of Financial Derivatives and Systemic Risk". Working Paper: 17. SSRN 2511541.
- ^ a b Lemke, Lins and Smith, Regulation of Investment Companies (Matthew Bender, 2014 ed.).
- ^ Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera, All the Devils Are Here, the Hidden History of the Financial Crisis, Portfolio, Penguin, 2010, p. 120
- ^ "Final Report of the National Commission on the Causes of the Financial and Economic Crisis in the United States", a.k.a. "The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report", p. 127
- ^ The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, 2011, p. 130
- ^ The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, 2011, p. 133
- ^ Lisa Pollack (January 5, 2012). "Credit event auctions: Why do they exist?". FT Alphaville.
- ^ "Chart; ISDA Market Survey; Notional amounts outstanding at year-end, all surveyed contracts, 1987–present" (PDF). International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 7, 2012. Retrieved April 8, 2010.
- ^ "ISDA 2010 Mid-Year Market Survey" Archived September 13, 2011, at the Wayback Machine. Latest available a/o March 1, 2012.
- ^ "ISDA: CDS Marketplace". Isdacdsmarketplace.com. December 31, 2010. Archived from the original on January 19, 2012. Retrieved March 12, 2012.
- ^ Kiff, John; Jennifer Elliott; Elias Kazarian; Jodi Scarlata; Carolyne Spackman (November 2009). "Credit Derivatives: Systemic Risks and Policy Options" (PDF). IMF Working Papers. 09 (WP/09/254): 1. doi:10.5089/9781451874006.001. S2CID 167560306. Retrieved April 25, 2010.
- ^ a b Christian Weistroffer; Deutsche Bank Research (December 21, 2009). "Credit default swaps: Heading towards a more stable system" (PDF). Deutsche Bank Research: Current Issues. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 2, 2010. Retrieved April 15, 2010.
- ^ Sirri, Erik. "Testimony Concerning Credit Default Swaps Before the House Committee on Agriculture October 15, 2008". Retrieved April 2, 2010.
- ^ Frank Partnoy; David A. Skeel, Jr. (2007). "The Promise And Perils of Credit Derivatives". University of Cincinnati Law Review. 75: 1019–1051. SSRN 929747.
- ^ "Media Statement: DTCC Policy for Releasing CDS Data to Global Regulators". Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. March 23, 2010. Archived from the original on April 29, 2010. Retrieved April 22, 2010.
- ^ Mengle, David (2007). "Credit Derivatives: An Overview" (PDF). Economic Review (FRB Atlanta). 92 (4). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 14, 2010. Retrieved April 2, 2010.
- ^ "Understanding Derivatives: Markets and Infrastructure" Archived August 12, 2013, at the Wayback Machine, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- ^ Forward Contract on Wikinvest[permanent dead link]
- ^ Lemke, Lins and Picard, Mortgage-Backed Securities, Chapters 4 and 5 (Thomson West, 2013 ed.).
- ^ Josh Clark, "How can mortgage-backed securities bring down the U.S. economy?", How Stuff Works
- ^ Benhamou, Eric, Options pre-Black Scholes (PDF), archived from the original on October 10, 2015, retrieved December 26, 2014
- ^ Black, Fischer; Scholes, Myron (1973). "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities". Journal of Political Economy. 81 (3): 637–654. doi:10.1086/260062. JSTOR 1831029. S2CID 154552078.
- ^ Brealey, Richard A.; Myers, Stewart (2003), Principles of Corporate Finance (7th ed.), McGraw-Hill, Chapter 20
- ^ Ross; Westerfield; Jordan (2010). Fundamentals of Corporate Finance (9th ed.). McGraw Hill. p. 746.
- ^ "Currency Derivatives: A Beginner's Module". Archived from the original on August 30, 2011. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
- ^ "Bis.org". Bis.org. May 7, 2010. Retrieved August 29, 2010.
- ^ "Launch of the WIDER study on The World Distribution of Household Wealth: 5 December 2006". UNU-WIDER. Retrieved June 9, 2009.
- ^ Boumlouka, Makrem (October 30, 2009). "Alternatives in OTC Pricing". Hedge Funds Review.
- ^ Raghuram G. Rajan (September 2006). "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?". European Financial Management. 12 (4): 499–533. doi:10.1111/j.1468-036X.2006.00330.x. S2CID 56263069. SSRN 923683.
- ^ Kelleher, James B. (September 18, 2008). "'Buffett's Time Bomb Goes Off on Wall Street' by James B. Kelleher of Reuters". Reuters.com. Retrieved August 29, 2010.
- ^ Andrews, Edmund L.; de la Merced, Michael J.; Walsh, Mary Williams (September 16, 2008). "Fed's $85 billion Loan Rescues Insurer". The New York Times.
- ^ Edwards, Franklin (1995). "Derivatives Can Be Hazardous To Your Health: The Case of Metallgesellschaft" (PDF). Derivatives Quarterly (Spring 1995): 8–17. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 23, 2010. Retrieved August 8, 2010.
- ^ Whaley, Robert (2006). Derivatives: markets, valuation, and risk management. John Wiley and Sons. p. 506. ISBN 978-0-471-78632-0.
- ^ "UBS Loss Shows Banks Fail to Learn From Kerviel, Leeson". Businessweek. September 15, 2011. Archived from the original on October 30, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2013.
- ^ Wu, Weiou; G. McMillan, David (July 8, 2014). "The dependence structure in credit risk between money and derivatives markets: A time-varying conditional copula approach". Managerial Finance. 40 (8): 758–769. doi:10.1108/MF-07-2013-0184. ISSN 0307-4358.
- ^ Story, Louise, "A Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives", The New York Times, December 11, 2010 (December 12, 2010, p. A1 NY ed.). Retrieved December 12, 2010.
- ^ Zubrod, Luke (2011). The Atlantic. "Will the 'Cure' for Systemic Risk Kill the Economy?" https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/06/will-the-cure-for-systemic-risk-kill-the-economy/240600/
- ^ Financial Stability Board (2012). "OTC Derivatives Market Reforms Third Progress Report on Implementation" June 15, 2012 http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_120615.pdf
- ^ a b Proskauer Rose LLP (February 6, 2012). "SEC and CFTC oversight of derivatives: a status report". Lexology. Retrieved March 5, 2013.
- ^ Younglai, Rachelle. "Interview – Not all SEC, CFTC rules must be harmonized". Reuters. Archived from the original on March 6, 2016. Retrieved March 5, 2013.
- ^ "First take: Ten key points from the SEC's swaps reporting and disclosure rules" (PDF). PwC Financial Services Regulatory Practice, February 2015.
- ^ a b c d
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain: "Joint Press Statement of Leaders on Operating Principles and Areas of Exploration in the Regulation of the Cross-Border OTC Derivatives Market; 2012-251". Sec.gov. December 4, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2016.
- ^ "Derivatives: A first take on cross-border comparability" (PDF). December 2013.
- ^ a b c d e "DTCC's Global Trade Repository for OTC Derivatives ("GTR")". Dtcc.com. Archived from the original on March 20, 2013. Retrieved March 5, 2013.
- ^ "U.S. DTCC says barriers hinder full derivatives picture". Reuters. February 12, 2013. Retrieved March 5, 2013.
- ^ Release, Press (August 5, 2010). "Derivatives trades will be tracked by Depository Trust". Futuresmag.com. Archived from the original on June 19, 2013. Retrieved March 5, 2013.
Further reading
[edit]- Bartram, Söhnke M.; Gregory W. Brown; Frank R. Fehle (Spring 2009). "International Evidence on Financial Derivatives Usage". Financial Management. 38 (1): 185–206. doi:10.1111/j.1755-053x.2009.01033.x. SSRN 471245.
- Bartram, Söhnke M.; Kevin Aretz (Winter 2010). "Corporate Hedging and Shareholder Value" (PDF). Journal of Financial Research. 33 (4): 317–371. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.534.728. doi:10.1111/j.1475-6803.2010.01278.x. S2CID 20087872. SSRN 1354149.
- Bartram, Söhnke M.; Brown, Gregory W.; Conrad, Jennifer C. (August 2011). "The Effects of Derivatives on Firm Risk and Value" (PDF). Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. 46 (4): 967–999. doi:10.1017/s0022109011000275. S2CID 3945906. SSRN 1550942.
- Durbin, Michael (2011). All About Derivatives (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. ISBN 978-0-07-174351-8.
- Hull, John C. (2011). Options, Futures and Other Derivatives (11th (eBook) ed.). Harlow, UK: Pearson Education. ISBN 9781292410623. OCLC 1259594039.
- Institute for Financial Markets (2011). Futures and Options (2nd ed.). Washington, D.C.: Institute for Financial Markets. ISBN 978-0-615-35082-0.
- Lemke, Lins (2013–2014). Soft Dollars and Other Trading Activities. Securities law handbook series. Thomson West. ISSN 2160-259X. OCLC 694573084.
- Mattoo, Mehraj (1997). Structured Derivatives: New Tools for Investment Management: A Handbook of Structuring, Pricing & Investor Applications. London: Financial Times. ISBN 978-0-273-61120-2.
- Soklakov, Andrei N. (2013). "Deriving Derivatives". SSRN 2262941. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2262941.
- Soklakov, Andrei N. (April 28, 2013). "Elasticity Theory of Structuring". arXiv:1304.7535v6 [q-fin.GN].
- Taleb, Nassim N. (2002). Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (Rev. ed.). New York: Wiley. ISBN 9780471353478. OCLC 50101046.
External links
[edit]- Understanding Derivatives: Markets and Infrastructure (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
- "Derivatives simple guide", BBC News
- Investment-foundations: Derivatives. Archived October 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine. CFA Institute.
- "European Union proposals on derivatives regulation – 2008 onwards" (archived 19 February 2014)
- " Derivatives Regulatory Roulette", PwC Financial Services Regulatory Practice (December 2013)
Derivative (finance)
View on GrokipediaFundamentals
Definition and Basic Principles
A financial derivative is a contract between two or more parties whose value is determined by, or "derived from," the value or performance of one or more underlying variables, such as assets, indices, interest rates, currencies, or commodities.[6][7] These underlying variables serve as reference points for calculating payments or settlements under the contract, without requiring ownership or physical delivery of the underlying itself in most cases.[1] Derivatives enable the isolated transfer of specific financial risks, such as price fluctuations, credit events, or volatility, from one party to another.[8] At their core, derivatives operate on principles of leverage and obligation fulfillment at predetermined future dates or upon specified events.[9] They typically specify a notional principal amount—an hypothetical quantity used to compute payment obligations—rather than an initial exchange of capital, allowing parties to control large exposures with relatively small upfront commitments, often in the form of margin or premiums.[10] Settlement can occur through cash payments reflecting changes in the underlying's value or, less commonly, physical delivery, with contracts maturing at fixed dates or being exercisable under defined conditions.[11] This structure derives from first-principles of contractual symmetry: one party's gain mirrors the other's loss, creating zero-sum outcomes that reflect real economic exposures without altering the underlying asset's supply or demand directly.[12] Derivatives serve three primary economic functions grounded in risk dynamics and market inefficiencies. Hedging uses them to offset potential losses in existing positions by taking opposing exposures, effectively stabilizing cash flows against adverse movements in underlyings like commodity prices or interest rates.[8] Speculation leverages amplified price sensitivity to bet on directional changes or volatility, enabling profit from anticipated shifts without holding the underlying asset.[13] Arbitrage exploits temporary price discrepancies between related markets or instruments, enforcing efficiency by simultaneously buying low and selling high across venues, though such opportunities diminish as markets integrate.[9] These applications rely on transparent pricing models, such as those discounting future cash flows or using stochastic processes for options, to ensure fair valuation and risk assessment.[6]Historical Evolution
The origins of financial derivatives trace back to ancient civilizations, where forward contracts facilitated agricultural risk management. In Mesopotamia around 1750 BCE, clay tablets document agreements for the future delivery of goods, allowing producers to hedge against price fluctuations in crops and livestock.[14] Similarly, in ancient Greece during the 6th century BCE, the philosopher Thales of Miletus reportedly purchased options on olive presses to speculate on an anticipated abundant harvest, demonstrating early use of option-like instruments for leveraging market predictions.[15] Forward contracts reemerged in medieval Europe and the Byzantine Empire, where merchants used them for commodities like spices and grains to mitigate transport and price risks across trade routes. In Japan, the Dojima Rice Exchange established in 1730 formalized rice futures trading, marking the first organized derivatives market with standardized contracts and clearing mechanisms to reduce counterparty risk.[16][17] The modern futures market developed in the United States amid 19th-century agricultural expansion. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), founded on April 3, 1848, initially focused on spot grain trading but introduced standardized forward contracts by 1865, evolving into true futures with daily settlement and margin requirements to enhance liquidity and enforce performance.[18][19] This innovation addressed seasonal gluts and storage costs, enabling farmers and merchants to lock in prices remotely. The 20th century saw diversification into financial derivatives. Stock options trading gained traction in the U.S. from the early 1900s, but standardization arrived with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) launch on April 26, 1973, coinciding with the Black-Scholes model's publication for pricing European options, which spurred institutional adoption.[20][21] Interest rate swaps emerged in the early 1980s amid volatile rates post-Volcker Fed policy; the first notable transaction occurred in 1981 between IBM and the World Bank, exchanging fixed Swiss franc payments for floating U.S. dollar obligations on a $200 million notional, evolving into plain vanilla interest rate swaps by 1985 for hedging funding costs.[22][23] Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives proliferated in the 1980s and 1990s, driven by globalization and deregulation, with innovations like credit default swaps in the mid-1990s addressing counterparty credit risk. The 2008 financial crisis exposed systemic vulnerabilities in opaque OTC markets, prompting reforms like the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, which mandated central clearing for many derivatives to mitigate leverage and interconnectedness risks.[24][25]Market Characteristics
Size and Growth Trends
The global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, which constitutes the majority of derivatives activity, had a notional outstanding amount of $729.8 trillion as of the first half of 2024, marking a 9.4% increase from the end of 2023.[26] This figure reflects a peak driven primarily by growth in interest rate derivatives, which accounted for over 80% of the total notional, amid elevated volatility in fixed-income markets and central bank policy shifts.[27] By year-end 2024, the notional outstanding rose approximately 5% year-over-year to around $699 trillion, though quarterly fluctuations occurred due to netting and compression activities by market participants.[28] Exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) volumes, measured in contracts rather than notional due to their standardized nature, reached record levels in 2024 for the sixth consecutive year, with global trading activity exceeding prior benchmarks amid heightened demand for equity index and commodity futures.[29] Annual ETD volumes grew from about 25 billion contracts in 2020 to over 40 billion by 2024, fueled by a 40.4% surge in 2020 alone during pandemic-related uncertainty, followed by sustained expansion in emerging markets like India and Brazil, where derivatives trading volumes have outpaced developed regions.[30][31] From 2020 to 2025, overall derivatives market growth has been characterized by resilience post-regulatory reforms like Dodd-Frank and EMIR, which reduced systemic risk through clearing mandates but initially suppressed volumes; subsequent rebounds correlate with macroeconomic turbulence, including inflation spikes and geopolitical events, leading to expanded hedging and speculative activity.[32] Credit default swaps (CDS), a subset, totaled $9.0 trillion in notional at end-2024, up modestly from prior years as credit spreads widened.[33] Projections for 2025 indicate continued moderate expansion, potentially 4-6% in notional terms, contingent on interest rate stabilization and fintech-driven efficiencies in trading infrastructure.[34]Participants and Trading Infrastructure
Participants in derivatives markets primarily consist of hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs, with additional roles filled by market makers and institutional entities. Hedgers enter derivative contracts to offset potential losses from adverse price movements in underlying assets, such as producers locking in commodity prices or investors protecting portfolios against equity declines.[35] Speculators accept risks to profit from anticipated price changes without intending to acquire or deliver the underlying asset, thereby enhancing market liquidity.[35] Arbitrageurs exploit temporary price inefficiencies between related instruments or markets, such as discrepancies between spot and futures prices, to generate risk-free profits and promote price convergence.[35] Market makers, often large financial institutions, continuously quote buy and sell prices to provide liquidity, earning spreads while assuming inventory risk.[36] Trading infrastructure for derivatives divides into exchange-traded and over-the-counter (OTC) segments, each with distinct mechanisms for execution, clearing, and settlement. Exchange-traded derivatives occur on centralized platforms like the CME Group, which encompasses the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (established 1898) and Chicago Board of Trade (established 1848), offering standardized futures and options on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and indices with electronic and open-outcry trading.[37] These exchanges match orders via electronic systems and route trades to affiliated central counterparties (CCPs) for clearing. CCPs, such as CME Clearing and ICE Clear, act as intermediaries by novating trades—becoming buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer—while enforcing daily margin requirements, variation margins for mark-to-market changes, and initial margins to cover potential defaults, thereby isolating counterparty risk.[37] [38] As of 2023, CME Clearing handled over 5 billion contracts annually across asset classes, underscoring its scale in risk management.[37] OTC derivatives, comprising the majority of notional value outstanding, involve customized bilateral agreements negotiated directly between parties, predominantly dealer banks like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, which intermediate via voice or electronic platforms.[39] Infrastructure here relies on interdealer brokers for price discovery and, post-2008 financial crisis reforms under the Dodd-Frank Act (enacted July 21, 2010), mandatory central clearing for standardized OTC contracts through CCPs to curb systemic risk, alongside trade reporting to repositories for transparency.[40] [41] Despite these enhancements, OTC markets retain flexibility for non-standardized products, with settlement often via cash or physical delivery facilitated by custodian banks.[42]Classification and Types
Core Contract Types
Forward contracts are customized, over-the-counter agreements between two parties to buy or sell an underlying asset, such as a commodity, currency, or security, at a predetermined price on a specified future date, regardless of the market price at settlement.[43] These contracts are non-standardized, allowing flexibility in terms like quantity, delivery date, and asset specifications, but they expose parties to counterparty risk since no exchange or clearinghouse guarantees performance.[44] Settlement typically occurs at maturity through physical delivery or cash, with the payoff calculated as the difference between the agreed forward price and the spot price.[45] Futures contracts are standardized versions of forwards, obligating the buyer to purchase and the seller to deliver a specific quantity of an asset at a predetermined price on a future date, with trading facilitated on regulated exchanges.[46] Standardization covers contract size, quality of the underlying, delivery procedures, and expiration dates, enabling liquidity and daily mark-to-market settlements via a clearinghouse that requires initial and variation margins to minimize default risk.[47] Unlike forwards, futures positions can be closed out before expiration by taking an offsetting trade, with most contracts liquidated rather than delivered physically.[47] Options contracts provide the holder with the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an underlying asset at a fixed strike price on or before a specified expiration date, in exchange for paying a premium to the writer.[48] Call options profit when the asset's price rises above the strike plus premium, while put options profit from declines below the strike minus premium; the maximum loss for buyers is limited to the premium paid.[49] Options can be exchange-traded with standardized terms or over-the-counter, and their pricing incorporates factors like underlying price, strike, time to expiration, volatility, and interest rates via models such as Black-Scholes.[50] Swaps are derivative contracts in which two parties agree to exchange a series of cash flows over a defined period, typically based on different underlying variables like interest rates, currencies, or commodities, to achieve desired exposures without exchanging principal.[51] Interest rate swaps, the most common type, involve one party paying a fixed rate while receiving a floating rate (or vice versa) on a notional amount, often used to convert fixed-rate debt to floating or hedge rate fluctuations.[52] Other variants include currency swaps for exchanging principal and interest in different currencies and commodity swaps for fixed versus market-based prices; these are predominantly over-the-counter but increasingly cleared post-2008 reforms.[51] Swaps' value derives from net cash flow differences, with periodic settlements and potential early termination via mutual agreement or market valuation.[53]OTC Versus Exchange-Traded Derivatives
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are financial contracts negotiated directly between two parties, typically institutions, without intermediation by an organized exchange. These agreements allow for customization of terms such as notional amount, maturity, and underlying assets to meet specific hedging or speculative needs.[54] In contrast, exchange-traded derivatives (ETDs) consist of standardized contracts, such as futures and options, executed on regulated platforms like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), where terms are predefined by the exchange.[54] [55] A central distinction lies in risk management and settlement. OTC derivatives expose parties to bilateral counterparty risk, where default by one party can lead to losses absent mutualization, though post-2008 reforms like the Dodd-Frank Act mandated central clearing for certain standardized OTC products to mitigate this via clearinghouses.[56] ETDs, however, novate trades to a central counterparty (CCP) upon execution, substituting the CCP as buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer, effectively eliminating bilateral default risk through daily margining and guarantees.[54] This structure was pivotal during the 2008 financial crisis, where OTC instruments like credit default swaps amplified systemic risks due to opaque exposures, whereas ETD markets demonstrated resilience via CCPs.[57]| Aspect | OTC Derivatives | Exchange-Traded Derivatives |
|---|---|---|
| Trading Mechanism | Bilateral negotiation, no central venue | Centralized exchange with order matching |
| Contract Terms | Highly customizable (e.g., tailored interest rate swaps) | Standardized (e.g., fixed contract sizes, expiration dates for futures) |
| Liquidity | Variable, often lower due to dependence on finding counterparties | Generally high, facilitated by market makers and electronic trading |
| Pricing Transparency | Opaque, based on private quotes | Transparent, with real-time public bids and offers |
| Regulation | Subject to post-crisis rules like EMIR/Dodd-Frank, but less uniform | Strict exchange and CCP oversight, including position limits |
| Counterparty Risk | Elevated, mitigated by collateral agreements (e.g., ISDA master agreements) | Minimal, via CCP novation and variation margin |
| Market Size (Notional Outstanding) | Approximately $667 trillion globally as of recent BIS data | Significantly smaller, with focus on high-turnover instruments like equity index futures |
Structured and Exotic Derivatives
Structured derivatives are pre-packaged financial instruments that combine traditional securities, such as bonds or deposits, with embedded derivatives to deliver customized payoff profiles linked to underlying assets like equities, indices, commodities, or interest rates. These products are engineered to meet specific investor objectives, such as principal protection, enhanced yield potential, or conditional upside participation, often appealing to retail and institutional investors seeking alternatives to plain-vanilla investments. For example, an equity-linked note might offer full principal repayment if a stock index remains above a barrier, with returns capped at a predefined level tied to index performance.[61][62] Exotic derivatives encompass a broad class of non-standard contracts that modify vanilla derivatives—such as European or American options—through features like path-dependent payoffs, barriers, multiple underlyings, or discontinuous payouts, enabling precise tailoring for hedging or speculation. Key types include:- Barrier options: These activate (knock-in) or deactivate (knock-out) upon the underlying asset reaching a predefined price level, reducing premiums compared to vanilla options but introducing discontinuity risk; for instance, an up-and-in call option only exercises if the asset price surpasses a barrier during its term.[63]
- Binary or digital options: Paying a fixed amount if a condition (e.g., asset price above strike at expiration) is met, or zero otherwise, these exhibit binary payoff profiles suited for event-based bets but carry high gamma risk near the strike.[64]
- Asian options: Averaging the underlying price over a period rather than using spot price at expiration, mitigating volatility manipulation but complicating valuation due to averaging mechanics.[65]
- Lookback options: Allowing exercise at the optimal price observed during the option's life (e.g., maximum or minimum), providing full hindsight benefit at the cost of higher premiums.[66]
Primary Applications
Hedging Against Risks
Derivatives enable entities to construct offsetting positions that mitigate exposure to adverse fluctuations in underlying asset prices, interest rates, currencies, or other variables, thereby stabilizing cash flows and reducing overall financial volatility. For commodity exposures, producers such as agricultural firms sell futures contracts to lock in forward prices; a wheat farmer, for example, might sell Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures equivalent to anticipated harvest volume, ensuring revenue predictability despite market downturns.[71] Empirical examinations of non-financial firms initiating derivatives programs reveal that such hedging correlates with diminished firm risk, including lower stock return volatility and earnings variability, as measured against propensity-score matched non-users over periods like 1991-1996.[72] In foreign exchange contexts, importers facing currency depreciation risk purchase put options or enter forward contracts to cap effective purchase costs; a U.S. firm importing European goods might buy euro put options, exercising them if the dollar weakens beyond a strike price, thus bounding exchange losses.[73] Similarly, airlines hedge jet fuel costs via swaps or collars combining call and put options, as evidenced by major carriers' programs that reduced fuel expense volatility during oil price spikes in the mid-2000s.[74] These instruments provide asymmetric protection—options limit downside while preserving upside potential—unlike symmetric futures, which fully offset gains and losses. Interest rate hedging often employs swaps, where a borrower with variable-rate debt agrees to pay fixed rates in exchange for receiving floating payments, synthetically converting obligations to fixed terms; this was prevalent among banks managing deposit liabilities tied to LIBOR benchmarks pre-2010s reforms.[10] Studies of banking institutions indicate that effective derivative hedging lowers perceived credit risk, as proxied by narrower credit default swap spreads, particularly for firms with concentrated exposures.[75] However, hedging efficacy depends on alignment between derivative terms and hedged items, with mismatches introducing basis risk that can erode protections during stress events like the 2008 crisis.[76] Overall, derivatives facilitate precise risk transfer without liquidating core assets, enhancing capital efficiency for hedgers.Speculative Positions
Speculative positions in derivatives involve traders assuming risk to profit from expected changes in the underlying asset's price, without an offsetting exposure in the physical or cash market. These positions leverage the derivative's structure, such as futures or options, to amplify returns on small initial investments, typically requiring margins of 5-15% of the contract's notional value. For instance, a speculator anticipating a rise in crude oil prices might purchase futures contracts, profiting if the price increases beyond the contract's settlement level.[77] The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) distinguishes speculators as non-commercial traders in its weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, which track open interest by trader type. In many commodity futures, non-commercial positions represent 20-40% of total open interest; for example, in disaggregated COT data for agricultural contracts as of late 2023, speculators held net long positions comprising up to 35% in corn futures. These reports, released every Friday based on Tuesday data, help assess speculative sentiment and its influence on pricing.[78] Empirical evidence from CFTC studies shows that speculative trading enhances market liquidity by providing immediate counterparties to hedgers, reduces search costs, and generally follows rather than leads price trends, with position changes lagging price movements by days or weeks. One analysis of futures markets concluded that speculation does not destabilize prices and actually lowers volatility by improving information incorporation. However, regulators impose speculative position limits—such as 10,000 contracts in certain energy futures—to prevent excessive concentration that could distort markets, as authorized under the Commodity Exchange Act.[79][80][77] In options markets, speculators often employ strategies like buying calls for bullish views or puts for bearish ones, limiting downside to the premium paid while offering unlimited upside potential. Currency derivatives see speculation on exchange rate fluctuations, exemplified by trades betting on interest rate differentials or economic data releases. While speculation facilitates efficient risk transfer, its leveraged nature has amplified losses in events like the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring the need for robust margin requirements and oversight.[81]Arbitrage Exploitation
Arbitrage exploitation in derivatives markets entails traders identifying and capitalizing on temporary price discrepancies between a derivative instrument and its underlying asset or between related derivatives, thereby enforcing market efficiency through the no-arbitrage principle. This strategy assumes frictionless markets in theory but relies on rapid execution to capture profits before discrepancies close, often involving simultaneous buy and sell positions to minimize directional risk. For instance, if a futures contract trades above its theoretical fair value derived from the spot price plus carrying costs, arbitrageurs buy the underlying asset and sell the futures, converging prices at expiration.[82][83] A primary mechanism is cash-and-carry arbitrage, where traders exploit divergences between spot commodities or financial assets and their futures contracts. In this approach, if futures prices exceed the spot price adjusted for storage, interest, and convenience yields, arbitrageurs purchase the spot asset, finance the hold via borrowing, and short the futures to lock in risk-free profit equal to the mispricing, net of costs. Empirical evidence from commodity markets, such as U.S. crude oil, demonstrates how such strategies drive inventory adjustments and price alignment, with studies showing arbitrage responses reducing basis spreads over time. Reverse cash-and-carry applies when futures underprice the spot, involving shorting the asset and buying futures, though short-selling constraints often limit its feasibility.[83][84] Index arbitrage leverages derivatives on stock indices, such as S&P 500 futures versus the underlying basket of stocks, to exploit intraday divergences often triggered by program trading. Traders sell overpriced index futures while buying the component stocks (or ETFs approximating the index) if the futures premium exceeds transaction costs, or vice versa, profiting as prices realign through arbitrage flows. Historical data from the 1987 market crash highlighted amplified volatility from such strategies, but post-event regulations like circuit breakers mitigated risks; nonetheless, opportunities persist in high-volume markets, with profitability tied to low latency and capital efficiency. In emerging markets like India's NIFTY 50, empirical tests confirm viable arbitrage on select stocks, yielding spreads exploitable via derivatives when exceeding bid-ask costs.[85][86] Volatility arbitrage, another derivative-specific tactic, involves trading options or variance swaps against realized volatility forecasts, betting on mean-reversion in implied volatility surfaces misaligned with historical or expected levels. Hedge funds deploy delta-neutral positions, such as straddles or dispersion trades, to harvest premiums from overpriced volatility while hedging directional exposure. Empirical studies in cryptocurrency derivatives markets reveal persistent opportunities between options and perpetual futures, driven by liquidity asymmetries and funding rate discrepancies, though transaction costs and model risk erode pure arbitrage gains. Overall, while theoretical models assume riskless profits, real-world exploitation demands sophisticated infrastructure, with failures like widened spreads during liquidity crunches underscoring execution barriers over inherent mispricings.[87][88]Empirical Patterns in Usage
Interest rate derivatives constitute the largest segment of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, accounting for approximately 82% of the total notional outstanding as of end-June 2024, with notional amounts reaching $579 trillion globally.[27] Foreign exchange derivatives follow at 13%, with $94 trillion in notional, while equity-linked, commodity, and credit derivatives comprise the remaining shares, at 2%, 2%, and 1% respectively.[27] This composition reflects persistent demand for instruments that manage interest rate exposure, driven by global monetary policy fluctuations and fixed-income portfolio adjustments among financial institutions and corporates.[32] Exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) exhibit different volume patterns, with equity index futures and options dominating traded contracts; in 2019, equity index derivatives represented over 40% of global ETD volume, though recent data show fluctuations influenced by market volatility.[89] Total ETD volumes reached 9.27 billion contracts in March 2025, up 16.7% month-over-month but down 37.2% year-over-year, indicating cyclical usage tied to equity market activity rather than steady hedging needs.[90] Commodity derivatives, often used by producers and consumers, show lower overall volumes but higher open interest during periods of price uncertainty, such as energy futures amid geopolitical events.[91] Empirical studies of non-financial corporations consistently find derivatives usage primarily serves hedging purposes, reducing firm-specific risks like foreign exchange and interest rate exposures without evidence of speculative intent.[72] For instance, surveys indicate 70% of large firms employ interest rate derivatives and 54% use currency hedges, correlating with lower stock return volatility and no increase in leverage or speculative gains.[72] Cross-country analyses of over 6,800 firms confirm hedging motives, as derivative users exhibit risk reductions aligned with underlying exposures, while speculative patterns—such as mismatched positions for profit—lack statistical support.[92] Financial institutions, however, engage more in market-making and directional trades, contributing to speculation in liquid segments like equity options, where trading volumes amplify during bull markets.[93]| Derivative Type | Notional Outstanding (End-June 2024, $ Trillion) | Share of OTC Market (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate | 579 | 82 |
| Foreign Exchange | 94 | 13 |
| Equity-Linked | 14 | 2 |
| Commodity | 14 | 2 |
| Credit | 7 | 1 |
Economic Role
Price Discovery and Market Efficiency
Derivatives markets facilitate price discovery, the mechanism through which trading activity reveals the underlying value of assets by aggregating dispersed information from participants. Futures and options contracts, particularly those on exchanges, often lead spot markets in processing new information due to standardized terms, high liquidity, and reduced frictions for large trades, enabling faster incorporation of news into prices.[94] Empirical analyses using measures like the Hasbrouck information share or Gonzalo-Granger component consistently show futures dominating price discovery in equity index contracts, where derivatives prices adjust to earnings announcements or macroeconomic data before spot markets.[95] For agricultural commodities, such as corn, daily futures prices exhibit stronger lead-lag relationships with spot prices, reflecting informed hedging and speculative flows that signal supply-demand shifts.[96] This price leadership stems from arbitrage enforcement: deviations between derivative and spot prices prompt trades that realign values, disseminating information across markets.[94] Large speculators, including managed money traders, contribute disproportionately to this process in futures markets by trading on superior information or models, as evidenced by CFTC commitment of traders data linking their positions to subsequent spot price movements.[95] In currency derivatives, financial institutions' informed trades further accelerate discovery, with empirical tests confirming lower adverse selection costs compared to spot forex.[97] Derivatives enhance market efficiency by improving informational efficiency, liquidity, and the speed of price adjustments in underlying assets. The introduction of futures contracts has been associated with reduced bid-ask spreads and volatility persistence in spot markets, as arbitrageurs exploit temporary mispricings, enforcing no-arbitrage bounds like put-call parity in options.[94] Cross-sectional studies across asset classes reveal that derivative trading volumes correlate with lower information asymmetry in equities, as hedgers and speculators reveal order flow indirectly, aiding overall market depth.[98] For systemic efficiency, derivatives enable unbundling of risks, allowing capital to flow to highest-return uses without embedding unwanted exposures, as supported by analyses of global capital allocation post-derivatives liberalization.[99] However, efficiency gains depend on market microstructure; in less regulated OTC segments, opacity can delay discovery, though post-2008 reforms like central clearing have mitigated this by standardizing reporting and reducing counterparty frictions.[100] Empirical variance ratio tests post-derivative listings often reject random walk hypotheses less frequently, indicating more predictable adjustments to fundamentals rather than noise.[101] Overall, these mechanisms underscore derivatives' role in causal information propagation, though isolated cases of spot leadership in illiquid assets highlight context-specific dynamics.[102]Risk Allocation and Capital Efficiency
Derivatives facilitate the allocation of financial risks by enabling parties exposed to adverse price movements—such as producers, consumers, or investors—to transfer specific risks to counterparties willing to bear them in exchange for potential compensation. Hedgers, who face inherent business risks like commodity price volatility or currency fluctuations, utilize derivatives contracts to offset these exposures, effectively shifting the risk burden to speculators or other market participants who accept it for anticipated profits.[103][1] This mechanism operates through standardized exchange-traded contracts or customized over-the-counter agreements, where the hedger pays a premium or margin to secure predictability, while the risk bearer assumes the obligation contingent on market outcomes.[35] In futures and options markets, this risk transfer is evident in the separation of hedging from speculation: for instance, agricultural producers sell futures contracts to lock in crop prices, transferring downside price risk to buyers who speculate on upward movements. Empirical observations from commodity markets show that such transfers enhance overall market liquidity by attracting diverse participants, with speculators providing necessary counterparties absent in spot markets dominated by hedgers.[104] Without this allocation, hedgers might reduce production or investment due to uncertainty, whereas derivatives allow risk-averse entities to maintain operations while concentrating risks among those with higher tolerance or superior forecasting ability.[105] Derivatives promote capital efficiency by requiring participants to post only a fraction of the contract's notional value as margin, typically 3% to 12% for futures, rather than the full underlying asset value needed in spot transactions. This leverage enables firms to manage large exposures—such as hedging billions in currency risk—with minimal tied-up capital, freeing resources for productive investments like expansion or R&D.[106][107] For example, a corporation hedging interest rate risk via swaps avoids immobilizing funds equivalent to the principal amount, as initial and variation margins suffice to cover potential losses, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of capital.[100] Studies indicate that this efficiency reduces firms' overall financing costs and improves financial stability, as derivatives usage correlates with lower volatility in cash flows and enhanced ability to access credit markets. Post-crisis regulations, including central clearing, have standardized margins to mitigate defaults while preserving efficiency, with portfolio margining further netting offsetting positions to minimize required collateral.[108][109] However, excessive leverage can amplify losses if markets move adversely, underscoring the need for robust risk management to sustain these benefits.[110]Net Benefits from Empirical Studies
Empirical analyses indicate that financial derivatives contribute to net economic benefits primarily through enhanced risk transfer, improved liquidity, and greater capital efficiency, though results vary by market context and usage. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia concluded that derivatives facilitate risk allocation across investors and firms, reducing portfolio diversification costs and providing informational signals via pricing that aid market participants in decision-making.[94] Similarly, research from the Milken Institute demonstrated that derivatives usage by banks correlates with a statistically significant increase in commercial and industrial lending volumes, controlling for other factors, suggesting derivatives free up capital for productive economic activities rather than displacing it.[111] At the macroeconomic level, derivatives markets have been linked to accelerated economic growth in empirical models. A 2019 cross-country analysis found that derivatives trading positively influences GDP growth by promoting capital accumulation, substituting for direct investment in some cases, and enabling better resource allocation, with stronger effects in developed economies.[112] Another study across emerging and developed markets reported that derivatives market development exerts a significant positive impact on long-term economic growth, based on panel data regressions incorporating derivatives turnover as a key variable.[113] These findings align with evidence from the Financial Stability Board, which notes that over-the-counter derivatives enhance overall market functioning by supporting risk management, price discovery, and liquidity provision, thereby contributing to financial stability under normal conditions.[114] Firm-level studies provide mixed but often affirmative evidence on net benefits. Derivatives hedging has been shown to reduce corporate risk exposure without evidence of speculative misuse in many cases, leading to lower volatility in earnings and stock returns for initiating users.[72] However, some analyses report asymmetric effects, with derivatives usage sometimes correlating with lower firm value in certain developed markets from 2007 to 2016, potentially due to over-hedging or agency costs, though benefits accrue more reliably to larger firms with effective risk management.[115] Speculative trading in derivatives, while increasing leverage risks, empirically boosts market liquidity by enabling dealers to provide tighter bid-ask spreads and greater immediacy, as evidenced in dealer-intermediated markets.[116] Overall, the preponderance of peer-reviewed evidence supports net positives from derivatives when used for hedging and liquidity enhancement, outweighing costs in stable environments, though amplification of shocks during crises underscores the need for robust oversight.[98]Valuation Methods
Fundamental Pricing Concepts
The pricing of financial derivatives fundamentally relies on the no-arbitrage principle, which posits that derivative prices must preclude riskless profit opportunities, as market participants would exploit and eliminate such discrepancies instantaneously.[117] This principle underpins the law of one price, ensuring that identical cash flows from different instruments command the same value; otherwise, arbitrageurs could buy the cheaper and sell the more expensive, forcing convergence.[118] For instance, in forward contracts, the forward price is derived as , where is the spot price, the risk-free rate, the dividend yield, and the time to maturity, reflecting the cost of carry adjusted for storage or yield benefits.[119] Replication extends this by constructing a self-financing portfolio of the underlying asset and risk-free bonds that exactly matches the derivative's payoff at expiration, implying the derivative's price equals the portfolio's initial cost to avoid arbitrage.[120] This approach is particularly applicable to linear derivatives like futures, where payoffs are symmetric and directly hedgeable, but requires dynamic adjustment for nonlinear instruments such as options due to path-dependent risks.[121] Empirical validation arises from observed market efficiency, where deviations from replication costs are rapidly corrected, as documented in high-frequency trading data from exchanges like the CME Group.[122] Risk-neutral valuation provides a computational framework for pricing, where the derivative's value is the discounted expected payoff under a probability measure in which all assets earn the risk-free rate, decoupling real-world risk preferences from valuation.[123] This equivalence holds under complete markets, assuming the existence of a unique equivalent martingale measure, as formalized in the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing.[124] For European options, this yields prices via integration over risk-neutral densities, with the Black-Scholes formula emerging as a closed-form solution under lognormal assumptions, empirically tested against S&P 500 option data showing minimal arbitrage residuals post-1987.[125] Limitations include market incompleteness, where multiple measures exist, necessitating model risk assessments.[126]Arbitrage-Free Valuation
Arbitrage-free valuation constitutes a foundational approach in derivatives pricing, predicated on the no-arbitrage principle, which posits that in efficient markets, prices of financial instruments adjust instantaneously to preclude riskless profit opportunities.[117] This principle ensures that derivative prices align with those of underlying assets and risk-free instruments, preventing discrepancies exploitable through costless trading strategies yielding positive returns with zero probability of loss.[118] Under this framework, the value of a derivative equals the cost of a replicating portfolio that synthetically matches its payoff profile across all possible future states, thereby enforcing price equivalence via arbitrage enforcement.[127] The methodology extends to risk-neutral valuation, an equivalent formulation where the derivative's price is computed as the discounted expected value of its payoff under a risk-neutral probability measure.[120] In this measure, all assets exhibit expected returns equal to the risk-free rate, decoupling pricing from investors' risk preferences and relying solely on market probabilities adjusted for no-arbitrage consistency.[128] The fundamental theorem of asset pricing formalizes this linkage, stating that a market admits no arbitrage if and only if an equivalent risk-neutral measure exists, providing a rigorous mathematical basis for valuation in complete markets.[127] Practical application manifests in models such as the binomial option pricing model, where discrete-time replication constructs arbitrage-free bounds by backward induction from expiration payoffs, converging to continuous-time solutions like the Black-Scholes formula under limiting assumptions of frictionless trading and continuous paths.[118] Violations of arbitrage-free conditions, such as mispricings relative to put-call parity—where for European options—signal immediate exploitable opportunities, underscoring the principle's role in maintaining market integrity.[117] Empirical adherence is evidenced in high-frequency trading environments, where deviations persist only momentarily before correction, affirming the principle's validity in liquid derivatives markets.[129]Computational Models and Tools
Monte Carlo simulations represent a cornerstone of computational derivative pricing, particularly for path-dependent instruments like Asian or barrier options where analytical solutions are infeasible. These methods generate thousands or millions of random price paths for the underlying asset based on stochastic processes such as geometric Brownian motion, computing the discounted expected payoff across simulations to approximate fair value. Enhancements like variance reduction techniques, including antithetic variates or control variates, improve efficiency and accuracy for high-dimensional problems.[130] For American options, least-squares Monte Carlo extends this approach by regressing continuation values against exercise decisions at each time step, enabling early exercise valuation.[131] Finite difference methods provide an alternative by discretizing the partial differential equations (PDEs) underlying models like Black-Scholes, solving for option values on a grid over time and asset price dimensions. Explicit, implicit, or Crank-Nicolson schemes balance computational speed and stability, with implicit methods favored for their unconditional stability in pricing exotic derivatives subject to early exercise or barriers. These techniques excel in low-dimensional settings but scale poorly with multiple underlyings compared to simulation-based approaches.[132] Binomial and trinomial lattice models, akin to finite difference approximations, propagate option values backward through discrete time steps, incorporating recombination to manage complexity for American-style contracts. Specialized software implements these models for practical valuation and risk assessment. MATLAB's Financial Instruments Toolbox offers built-in functions for pricing vanilla and exotic derivatives via Monte Carlo, finite differences, and trees, supporting custom stochastic processes and calibration to market data.[133] Open-source libraries like QuantLib provide extensible C++ frameworks with Python bindings for modeling swaps, options, and structured products, incorporating advanced numerics for interest rate and credit derivatives. Commercial platforms such as Numerix deliver enterprise-grade analytics for cross-asset valuation, integrating machine learning proxies for real-time pricing of complex portfolios.[134] Emerging quantum algorithms aim to accelerate Monte Carlo integration for high-volume simulations, though practical adoption remains limited as of 2023.[135]Risk Profile
Leverage and Volatility Amplification
Derivatives instruments, such as futures, options, and swaps, inherently embed financial leverage by enabling participants to gain exposure to large notional amounts through minimal initial capital outlays, typically in the form of margins or premiums representing 2-15% of the underlying value. This leverage ratio—often ranging from 7:1 to 50:1 depending on the asset and market conditions—multiplies the percentage impact of underlying price movements on the derivative's value relative to the invested capital. For instance, in equity index futures, a contract with a notional value tied to the S&P 500 multiplier might require initial margin of around 5-10% amid stable volatility, such that a 1% decline in the index equates to a 10-20% erosion of the margin deposit before variation margin calls. This mechanical amplification extends to volatility, as the standard deviation of returns on the leveraged position scales proportionally with the leverage factor applied to the underlying asset's volatility. In options trading, effective leverage is further modulated by delta (the sensitivity to underlying price changes), where at-the-money calls or puts can exhibit leverage exceeding 20:1, transforming modest spot volatility—say, 20% annualized—into position volatility of 400% or more on the premium paid.[136] Swaps, particularly credit default swaps, similarly concentrate risk through notional exposures dwarfing collateral, with historical haircuts during the 2008 crisis revealing leverage multiples that converted small default probabilities into outsized losses.[137] Empirical analyses confirm that such leverage heightens tail risks and drawdown severity for derivative users, particularly speculators, though hedging applications may mitigate firm-level volatility.[72] A study of corporate derivatives initiators found initial volatility spikes from unhedged leverage, with subsequent reductions only upon effective risk management, underscoring that amplification persists absent offsetting positions.[72] Market-wide, concentrated leveraged derivatives have exacerbated intraday swings, as in leveraged ETF rebalancing that compounds volatility through daily resets, amplifying underlying moves by design multiples during turbulent periods.[138] During stress, forced liquidations trigger feedback loops, where amplified losses prompt deleveraging, further depressing prices and inflating realized volatility—as modeled in structural frameworks linking leverage to equity volatility multipliers exceeding 1.5x in downturns.[139] ![Total world wealth vs. total world derivatives notional outstanding, 1998-2007][center] The systemic scale of derivatives notional—historically 10-20 times global GDP—illustrates aggregate leverage potential, where even modest underlying perturbations can cascade via margin spirals. Counterparty analyses from the Financial Stability Board highlight how non-bank leverage in derivatives, unbuffered by traditional banking reserves, intensified volatility transmission in events like the 2022 UK gilt crisis, with leverage ratios amplifying pension fund losses by factors of 5-10x.[137] While first-principles dictate that leverage symmetrically boosts upside and downside volatility, empirical patterns reveal asymmetric amplification in bear markets due to nonlinear payoffs (e.g., options' convexity) and behavioral responses like panic selling, leading to observed leverage effects where negative returns predict heightened future volatility.[140] Regulatory margins, calibrated via Value-at-Risk models, aim to curb excesses but can procyclically tighten during volatility spikes, forcing sales that embed further amplification.[141] Overall, derivatives' leverage profile demands rigorous position sizing and stress testing to avert volatility explosions that outpace underlying dynamics.Counterparty and Operational Risks
Counterparty credit risk in derivatives refers to the potential for loss due to a counterparty's default on obligations before the final settlement of transaction cash flows, a concern amplified in over-the-counter (OTC) markets where contracts are bilaterally negotiated without an intermediary.[142] This risk stems from the positive mark-to-market value of positions that may require replacement at a loss upon default, with exposure varying dynamically based on underlying asset volatility and time to maturity.[143] Unlike exchange-traded derivatives, OTC instruments lack standardized terms and daily settlements, heightening vulnerability, as evidenced by the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, where counterparties faced billions in uncollateralized exposures from credit default swaps and other derivatives.[144] Mitigation strategies include collateral posting via initial margin (to cover potential future exposure) and variation margin (to match current exposure), often governed by International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) master agreements that enable close-out netting to offset obligations upon default.[145] Post-2008 reforms, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and EMIR in Europe, mandate central clearing for standardized OTC derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs), which interpose themselves as universal counterparties, perform multilateral netting, and impose strict margin and default fund requirements to contain contagion.[146] Empirical data from CCPs indicate reduced default losses; for instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 market turmoil, CCPs absorbed shocks without systemic failure due to pre-funded resources exceeding historical stress scenarios.[147] Operational risks in derivatives encompass losses from deficiencies in internal processes, personnel, systems, or external disruptions, including trade confirmation errors, settlement failures, or inadequate model validation that can lead to mispriced or unhedged positions.[148] In high-volume derivatives trading, such risks manifest in procedural lapses like failed reconciliations of OTC portfolios or IT system outages disrupting automated valuation adjustments, potentially amplifying financial losses during volatile periods.[149] For example, operational breakdowns in collateral management have historically contributed to disputes, as seen in pre-reform OTC markets where manual processes delayed margin calls and increased dispute rates by up to 20% during stress events.[150] Regulatory frameworks address these through requirements for robust reconciliation, compression of portfolios to reduce notional exposures, and dispute resolution protocols under EMIR and similar rules, which have lowered operational incident rates in cleared derivatives by standardizing automation and segregation of collateral.[151] Basel III guidelines further integrate operational risk capital charges, calibrated via standardized or advanced measurement approaches that incorporate historical loss data from derivatives activities, ensuring institutions maintain buffers against process failures without over-relying on unverified models.[152] Despite mitigations, residual risks persist in non-centrally cleared trades, where bilateral operational dependencies can still precipitate tail events, underscoring the need for ongoing technological upgrades like distributed ledger systems for trade matching.[153]Systemic Risk Assessments
Systemic risk assessments evaluate the capacity of derivatives markets to transmit shocks across the financial system, primarily through mechanisms such as counterparty interconnections, leverage multiplication, and sudden liquidity evaporation during stress events. These assessments distinguish between gross notional exposures, which reflect contract sizes, and net economic risks, measured by gross market values (GMV) or replacement costs after netting and collateral. For instance, while OTC derivatives notional amounts outstanding stood at approximately $736 trillion as of end-June 2024, GMV declined 7% in the first half of that year to levels reflecting compressed volatility, and gross credit exposures fell to $2.8 trillion amid widespread netting agreements.[27] Interest rate derivatives dominated at $579 trillion notional, with foreign exchange at $130 trillion, highlighting concentrations that could amplify shocks if hedges unwind en masse.[27] Empirical analyses yield conflicting findings on derivatives' net contribution to systemic risk. Cross-country bank-level studies demonstrate that higher derivatives holdings correlate with elevated systemic risk contributions, driven by increased asset volatility, leverage, and operational complexities, particularly for credit and foreign exchange instruments.[154] [155] Conversely, network-based models of OTC markets indicate that derivatives enable risk dispersion to specialized bearers, potentially lowering aggregate systemic vulnerability compared to pre-derivatives eras, as evidenced by reduced default propagation in simulated scenarios.[156] [157] U.S. banking sector examinations further reveal that interest rate derivatives may dampen systemic risk, while non-standardized products exacerbate it absent robust risk management.[158] Post-2008 regulatory reforms, including central clearing mandates, have reshaped assessments by substituting bilateral opacity with centralized multilateral netting and variation/initial margins at central counterparties (CCPs). Evaluations confirm that clearing reduces counterparty default chains and liquidity risks for standardized products like interest rate swaps, with CCP resilience tested via stress scenarios showing adequate default waterfalls in most cases.[159] [160] However, quantitative models highlight potential drawbacks, including procyclical margin spirals and CCP concentration risks, where a single failure could necessitate bailouts, yielding ambiguous net systemic effects contingent on participant heterogeneity and shock severity.[161] [162] Ongoing monitoring by bodies like the Bank for International Settlements emphasizes compression techniques and collateral adequacy to sustain these mitigations amid evolving market dynamics.[60]Historical Events and Controversies
Key Crises Involving Derivatives
In 1994, Orange County, California, experienced the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history at the time after suffering approximately $1.6 billion in losses from derivative investments in its investment pool. Treasurer Robert Citron had employed highly leveraged strategies involving inverse floating-rate notes and structured securities that profited from stable or declining interest rates, but the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes starting February 4, 1994, triggered mark-to-market losses exceeding the pool's $7.4 billion in assets. On December 6, 1994, the county filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, halting payments to over 200 creditors including Merrill Lynch, which had facilitated the trades.[163][164] The 1995 collapse of Barings Bank, then a 233-year-old British institution, stemmed from unauthorized derivatives trading by Nick Leeson, its Singapore-based futures trader. Leeson accumulated $1.4 billion in losses primarily through speculative bets on Nikkei 225 futures contracts and options, initially covering deficits with a hidden "error account" amid inadequate internal controls and segregation of front- and back-office functions. By February 23, 1995, margin calls exposed the insolvency, leading to the bank's administration on February 26, 1995, and its sale to ING for £1.[165][166] Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a hedge fund founded in 1994 by Nobel laureates Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, nearly triggered systemic contagion in 1998 due to extreme leverage in fixed-income arbitrage and derivatives positions totaling over $1 trillion in notional value against $4.8 billion in equity. Russian debt default in August 1998 caused correlated asset movements that invalidated the fund's convergence models, resulting in a 44% equity drop that month and equity falling to $600 million by September. On September 23, 1998, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a $3.65 billion bailout by 14 banks to avert broader market disruption.[167][168] Derivatives played a central amplifying role in the 2008 global financial crisis through collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDS), which securitized and insured subprime mortgage risks, masking underlying credit deterioration. CDOs, often repackaged into synthetic tranches, expanded exposure to toxic assets, while AIG's $440 billion notional CDS portfolio led to a near-collapse requiring a $182 billion government bailout in September 2008. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission noted these instruments contributed by obscuring risk concentrations and enabling off-balance-sheet leverage at institutions like Lehman Brothers, whose failure on September 15, 2008, intensified liquidity seizures.[169][170] In March 2021, Archegos Capital Management, a family office run by Bill Hwang, imploded after leveraged total return swaps on media and tech stocks unraveled, inflicting over $10 billion in losses on prime brokers including Credit Suisse ($5.5 billion) and Nomura. Archegos controlled $100 billion in notional positions with minimal equity, but a 25% ViacomCBS stake dilution on March 22, 2021, triggered forced liquidations and margin calls exceeding its $20 billion capital, exposing flaws in bank risk monitoring of opaque swap exposures.[171][172]Debates on Causality and Blame
Debates on the causal role of derivatives in major financial disruptions, particularly the 2008 global crisis, center on whether these instruments initiated systemic failures or exacerbated preexisting fragilities in credit markets. Proponents of strong causality argue that the opacity and leverage inherent in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, such as credit default swaps (CDS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), concealed mounting risks in subprime mortgage exposures, enabling a rapid propagation of losses when housing prices declined starting in 2006. For example, the CDS market's notional value exceeded $60 trillion by 2007, with interconnections amplifying counterparty risks, as evidenced by American International Group's (AIG) $441 billion in CDS writings that triggered its near-collapse and a $180 billion U.S. government intervention in September 2008.[173] [174] This view, articulated in testimonies before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), posits that unregulated OTC trading—facilitated by the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA) of 2000—created a "shadow banking" system prone to runs, directly contributing to liquidity freezes in interbank lending.[175] [176] Counterarguments emphasize that derivatives served primarily as risk-transfer mechanisms rather than originators of the crisis, with underlying causality traced to the expansion of subprime lending from 2001 to 2006, where nonprime mortgages rose from 8% to 20% of originations amid low federal funds rates averaging 1.2% from 2003-2004 and government policies promoting homeownership through entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which acquired $1.5 trillion in subprime and Alt-A loans by 2008.[177] [178] In this framing, derivatives did not generate net losses—each position's downside mirrors another's gain—but their widespread use in securitization pipelines masked correlated defaults when house prices fell 30% nationally by 2009, turning hedges into amplifiers due to flawed assumptions of diversification.[178] Empirical analyses, including those reviewing pre-crisis derivatives performance, suggest that while leverage magnified shocks, the instruments themselves operated as designed until the revelation of pervasive mortgage defaults, undermining claims of inherent causality.[169] Attribution of blame remains contested, with financial institutions criticized for originating and packaging $2.2 trillion in subprime-related securities by 2007 while understating risks via overly optimistic models, rating agencies like Moody's assigning AAA ratings to 80% of CDO tranches despite underlying default rates exceeding 25%, and investment banks like Lehman Brothers accumulating $600 billion in assets financed at 30:1 leverage ratios.[179] Regulators face scrutiny for permissive oversight, as the CFMA exempted OTC derivatives from clearinghouse requirements, fostering a $700 trillion notional market by mid-2008 lacking transparency.[180] Policymakers are implicated in fostering moral hazard through implicit guarantees to government-sponsored enterprises, which held 40% of subprime MBS by crisis onset, arguably inflating the housing bubble independently of derivatives innovation.[181] Defenders of market actors contend that systemic blame overlooks exogenous factors like synchronized global capital inflows and the Fed's rate hikes from 2004-2006, which pierced the bubble, while noting that cleared exchange-traded derivatives weathered the storm without similar contagion.[178] Earlier precedents, such as the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) debacle, fueled analogous discussions: the hedge fund's $4.6 billion loss on interest rate and equity derivatives, leveraged 25:1 amid Russian default shocks, prompted a $3.6 billion private rescue to avert broader meltdown, with debaters split between model inadequacies under tail risks and the necessity of derivatives for efficient hedging in normal conditions.[111] These events underscore a recurring tension: derivatives' capacity for risk dispersion versus vulnerability to herd behaviors and liquidity evaporation, informing post-crisis reforms without resolving underlying causal attributions.[182]Counterarguments to Systemic Threat Narratives
Critics of systemic threat narratives argue that the sheer size of derivatives markets, often highlighted by comparisons of gross notional amounts to global GDP or wealth—such as the 2007 figure where derivatives notionals exceeded $600 trillion against world wealth of about $200 trillion—grossly misrepresents actual economic exposure. Notional values represent the underlying principal on which payments are calculated, but they do not reflect net risk, as positions frequently offset across portfolios, with actual credit exposure limited to replacement costs or mark-to-market values, typically 1-5% of notionals in interest rate swaps.[183] For instance, Bank for International Settlements data from 2023 shows global OTC derivatives notionals at $632 trillion, yet gross credit exposure was only $3.4 trillion after netting and collateral, underscoring that alarmist comparisons ignore multilateral netting agreements and collateralization practices that mitigate potential losses.[4] Empirical studies refute claims that derivatives inherently amplify systemic instability or volatility in underlying assets. A comprehensive literature survey finds no significant evidence that derivatives trading increases spot market volatility; instead, they often serve as hedging tools that stabilize prices by allowing efficient risk transfer to specialized bearers.[184] Similarly, analysis of over-the-counter derivatives markets concludes they reduce systemic risk by reallocating exposures from less resilient institutions to more sophisticated counterparties better equipped to manage them, as evidenced by pre-1994 data showing lower default correlations post-derivatives adoption.[157] Federal Reserve research further contends that derivative-related failures, like Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, did not propagate widespread contagion due to the markets' depth and liquidity, with losses contained through orderly unwinds rather than cascading failures.[185] Proponents of derivatives' benign role emphasize their function in enhancing market efficiency and resilience, countering narratives of inevitable doom. By enabling precise risk decomposition—separating interest rate, credit, and currency risks—derivatives facilitate better capital allocation, as seen in the growth of cleared markets post-Dodd-Frank, where central counterparties have absorbed over 75% of interest rate derivatives by 2023, drastically lowering uncleared bilateral exposures.[186] Historical crises attributed to derivatives, such as 2008, stem more from underlying asset mispricing and excessive leverage in non-derivative holdings than from derivatives themselves, with econometric models showing derivatives positions did not systematically exacerbate bank failures when controlling for balance sheet fundamentals.[155] This perspective holds that unregulated opacity, not derivatives per se, posed risks, and modern transparency mandates have rendered systemic threats overstated, as no major derivatives-driven collapse has occurred since enhanced clearing protocols were implemented.[187] ![Total world wealth vs. total world derivatives 1998-2007][center]The above chart illustrates the common narrative trope of derivatives "dwarfing" global wealth, yet as noted, net exposures remain a fraction of notionals due to offsetting contracts and collateral, preventing the depicted imbalance from translating to systemic leverage.[4]
