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The Long Now Foundation, established in 1996,[1] is an American non-profit organization based in San Francisco that seeks to start and promote a long-term cultural institution. It aims to provide a counterpoint to what it views as today's "faster/cheaper" mindset and to promote "slower/better" thinking. The Long Now Foundation hopes to "creatively foster responsibility" in the framework of the next 10,000 years. In a manner somewhat similar to the Holocene calendar, the foundation uses 5-digit dates to address the Year 10,000 problem[2] (e.g., by writing the current year "02025" rather than "2025"). The organization's logo is X, a capital X with an overline, a representation of 10,000 in Roman numerals.

Key Information

Projects

[edit]

The foundation has several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, a cafe/bar called The Interval, and a popular seminar series, among others.[3]

Clock of the Long Now

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Main article: Clock of the Long Now

The purpose of the Clock of the Long Now is to construct a timepiece that will operate with minimum human intervention for ten millennia.[4] It is to be constructed of durable materials, to be easy to repair, and to be made of largely valueless materials in case knowledge of the clock is lost or it is deemed to be of no value to an individual or possible future civilization; in this way it is hoped that the Clock will not be looted or destroyed. Its power source (or sources) should be renewable but similarly unlootable.[5] A prototype of a potential final clock candidate was activated on December 31, 1999, and is on display at the Science Museum in London. The Foundation is currently building the Clock of the Long Now in Van Horn, Texas.[6]

The Interval bar in Fort Mason, San Francisco

The Interval

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Opened in June 2014, The Interval is a coffee shop and bar designed as social space in the foundation's Fort Mason facility in San Francisco.[7] The purpose of The Interval is to have a public space where people can come together to discuss ideas and topics related to long-term thinking, as well as provide a venue for a variety of Long Now events.[8] The Interval includes lounge furniture, artifacts from the foundation's projects, a library of the 1000 most important books for restarting civilization in the event of collapse, audio/video equipment, robots, art pieces, and a bar serving tea and coffee during the day, and cocktails during the night.[7][8] Donors of a certain level can have a flask of locally-made whiskey or gin from St. George's Spirits hanging from the ceiling, with the gin made using juniper berries of the very long-lived bristlecone pine.[8]

In October 2014 The Interval was named by Thrillist as one of the 21 best new bars in America.[9] Coffee blog Sprudge described it as a 'steampunk wonderland'.[8]

Seminars about long-term thinking

[edit]
Brian Eno, Danny Hillis, and Stewart Brand speaking at "The Long Now, now" – an event in January 2014 at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco

In November 2003, The Long Now Foundation began a series of monthly seminars about long-term thinking (SALT) with a lecture by Brian Eno. The seminars are held in the San Francisco Bay Area and have focused on long-term policy and thinking, scenario planning, singularity and the projects of the foundation. The seminars are available for download in various formats from The Long Now Foundation.[10][non-primary source needed] They are intended to "nudge civilization toward making long-term thinking automatic and common".[11][non-primary source needed] Topics have included preserving environmental resources, the deep past and deep future of the sciences and the arts, human life extension, the likelihood of an asteroid strike in the future, SETI, and the nature of time.[citation needed]

As of 2014, SFGate and Sprudge have described the seminars (hosted by Stewart Brand) as popular.[8][3]

Long Now Foundation debate format

[edit]

As part of the seminar series, there are occasionally debates on areas of long term concern, such as synthetic biology[12] or "historian vs futurist on human progress".[13]

The point of Long Now debates is not win-lose. The point is public clarity and deep understanding, leading to action graced with nuance and built-in adaptivity, with long-term responsibility in mind.[12]

In operation, "There are two debaters, Alice and Bob. Alice takes the podium, makes her argument. Then Bob takes her place, but before he can present his counter-argument, he must summarize Alice's argument to her satisfaction — a demonstration of respect and good faith. Only when Alice agrees that Bob has got it right is he permitted to proceed with his own argument — and then, when he's finished, Alice must summarize it to his satisfaction."[14]

Mutual understanding is enforced by a reciprocal requirement to describe the other's argument to their satisfaction, with the goal being more understanding after the event than there was beforehand.[citation needed]

Rosetta Project

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Main article: Rosetta Project

The Rosetta Project is an effort to preserve all languages that have a high likelihood of extinction over the period from 2000 to 2100.[15] These include many languages whose native speakers number in the thousands or fewer. Other languages with many more speakers are considered by the project to be endangered because of the increasing importance of English as an international language of commerce and culture. Samples of such languages are to be inscribed onto a disc of nickel alloy three inches (7.62 cm) across. A Version 1.0 of the disc was completed on November 3, 2008,[16] and as of 2017 housed 1,000 languages[17] while working towards preserving 1,500.[18]

Long Bet Project

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The Long Bet Project was created by The Long Now Foundation to propose and keep track of bets on long-term events and stimulate discussion about the future. The Long Now Foundation describes The Long Bet Project as a "public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake."[19] One example bet would be on whether people will regularly fly on pilotless aircraft by 2030.[non-primary source needed]

Bets that were resolved in 2010 included predictions about peak oil, print on demand, modem obsolescence, and commercially available 100-qubit quantum computers.[20][non-primary source needed]

An analysis by researcher Gwern Branwen found dozens of bets that had already expired but had not resolved, and many others with poorly defined resolution criteria. Branwen also found that the vast majority of the expired predictions resolved false, so that anyone could make a profit by betting indiscriminately against existing predictions. In light of these and other issues, and the website’s extremely low activity levels (with an average of less than two bets per year), Branwen concluded that the Long Bet Project should be shut down.[21]

Manual for Civilization

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The Manual for Civilization is a living, crowd-curated library of 3,500 books with the purpose of creating a record of humanity and technology for the current generation's descendants. The library is curated by the Long Now community and is on display at The Interval, Long Now’s cafe-bar-salon in San Francisco.[22]

PanLex

[edit]

PanLex is a linguistic project whose stated mission is to overcome language barriers to human rights, information, and opportunities.[23] Started in 2004 at the University of Washington’s Turing Center, the project sought to build software that would enable all humans to use their native language to share information, ideas, and emotions with the rest of the world. This research produced a lexical database (TransGraph) designed to support panlingual translation, and a more powerful extension of it (PanDictionary) based on intelligent automated inference.[24] After this work demonstrated the feasibility of the concept, the PanDictionary became the PanLex Database, and PanLex has continued to enlarge, enrich, and modify it by consulting multilingual dictionary and dictionary-like sources. In 2012, PanLex became a project of The Long Now Foundation.[25]

[edit]

Neal Stephenson's science fiction novel Anathem was partly inspired by the author's involvement with the Clock of the Long Now project.[citation needed]

As a result of Brian Eno's work on the clock project, an album entitled January 07003 / Bell Studies for The Clock of The Long Now was released in 2003.[26] English songwriter Owen Tromans released a single entitled "Long Now", inspired by the foundation, in 2013.[27]

Board members

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The Board of Directors of The Long Now Foundation as of February 2023:[28]

Emeritus members

See also

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References

[edit]
[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Long Now Foundation

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from Grokipedia
The Long Now Foundation is a nonprofit cultural institution founded in 01996 by Stewart Brand, Danny Hillis, and Brian Eno to foster long-term thinking and responsibility across millennia.[1] Headquartered in San Francisco, California, the organization seeks to counteract societal short-termism by promoting projects and discussions oriented toward timescales of 10,000 years or more, encapsulated in its name which redefines "now" as extending from the past 10,000 years into the future.[1] Its mission emphasizes making long-term thinking "automatic and common instead of difficult and rare," aiming to encourage civilizations to "look after things better" through sustained institutional efforts.[1] Central to the foundation's work is the 10,000-Year Clock, a massive mechanical timepiece designed by Danny Hillis and engineered to operate accurately for 10,000 years, installed within a mountain in West Texas as a symbolic monument to enduring human ingenuity and foresight.[2] Other key initiatives include the Long Now Seminars, which since 02003 have featured over 400 presentations by leading thinkers on civilization-scale ideas, and preservation projects such as the Rosetta Disk for safeguarding global languages and the Nevada Bristlecone Pine Forest Preserve to protect ancient trees symbolizing longevity.[3] The foundation also supports Revive & Restore, applying biotechnology to restore endangered species and revive extinct ones like the passenger pigeon, reflecting a commitment to ecological stewardship over deep time.[4] The Long Now's defining characteristic lies in its audacious scale of ambition, exemplified by artifacts like the Clock and facilities such as The Interval at Long Now—a public space in San Francisco combining a bar, museum, and research library to immerse visitors in temporal perspectives.[4] While praised for inspiring intergenerational responsibility, the Clock project has drawn critique for its resource intensity amid pressing immediate challenges, though proponents argue it cultivates essential cultural shifts toward sustainability.[5][2] Through these endeavors, the foundation positions itself as a steward of humanity's extended future, prioritizing empirical longevity in institutions over transient concerns.[1]

History

Founding and Early Years

The Long Now Foundation was established in 1996 in San Francisco by Stewart Brand, Danny Hillis, and Brian Eno as a nonprofit organization dedicated to fostering long-term thinking over a 10,000-year timeframe.[1] Brand, a writer and entrepreneur known for his work on the Whole Earth Catalog, initiated the effort in response to what he described as civilization's accelerating short-termism driven by rapid news cycles and technological change.[1] Hillis, an inventor and computer scientist who co-founded Thinking Machines Corporation, had conceived the idea for a monumental clock designed to run for 10,000 years as early as 1986, aiming to symbolize human responsibility across generations.[2] Eno, a musician and visual artist, contributed the term "Long Now" to emphasize extending the perceived present into a broader temporal horizon.[1] The foundation's founding board included Hillis as co-chair alongside Brand, with initial activities centered on developing practical projects to promote extended temporal awareness.[6] Primary focus was placed on the Clock of the Long Now and a companion 10,000-year library project, intended to archive human knowledge durably.[6] These efforts sought to counteract what the founders viewed as a cultural pathology of immediacy, encouraging institutions and individuals to adopt practices resilient over millennia.[1] In its early years through 2000, the organization prioritized prototyping the clock mechanism, with Hillis and executive director Alexander Rose leading design work that culminated in the first functional prototype operational by December 31, 1999, marking the millennium transition.[2] This prototype demonstrated basic chime generation and timekeeping, serving as a proof-of-concept for the larger mechanical system.[2] Membership and funding were secured through visionary supporters, laying groundwork for seminars and other initiatives that would expand later, while maintaining a lean operation focused on core long-term projects.[7]

Key Milestones and Expansion

In 1999, the Foundation acquired 1,800 acres of mountaintop land in eastern Nevada designated for the eventual installation of the 10,000-Year Clock, and completed construction of its initial prototype, which commenced operation on December 31, 1999, precisely at the turn of the millennium.[7] [8] This prototype, designed to demonstrate core mechanical principles for enduring timekeeping, featured a titanium pendulum and was later displayed publicly, including at TED conferences.[2] The year 2000 marked the launch of the Long Bets project, a platform for public wagers on long-term predictions to encourage accountability in forecasting, alongside the All Species Inventory initiative aimed at cataloging Earth's biodiversity.[7] In 2001, the Rosetta Project's website went live to aggregate linguistic data for preservation, building on its conception two years prior, while the organization relocated its offices to the Presidio in San Francisco, enhancing operational infrastructure.[7][9] The Seminars About Long-Term Thinking series debuted in 2003 under Stewart Brand's curation, beginning with a presentation by Brian Eno and evolving into a forum hosting over 400 speakers on civilization-scale topics by 2025.[10][11] That same year, the Rosetta Project secured a $1 million grant from the Long Data Foundation to advance its archival efforts.[7] Membership expansion began in 2007 with the formal program's rollout, achieving 1,000 members within months and fostering a sustained base for donor support and event participation.[7] Physical presence grew further in 2014 with the opening of The Interval on June 15—a hybrid bar, cafe, library, and exhibit space at Fort Mason Center—designed to integrate public discourse with Long Now artifacts and serve as a venue for seminars and community engagement.[12][13] Subsequent developments included core drilling for the full-scale Clock One prototype in Texas in 2009 and the inaugural pealing of the monument-scale clock's bells in 2022, signaling progress toward its Nevada installation.[7][2] By 2015, the Fund of the Long Now was established to channel philanthropic resources toward long-term initiatives, coinciding with the Panlex language translation project opening dedicated offices in Berkeley, reflecting institutional scaling in specialized endeavors.[7] The Foundation marked its 20th anniversary in 2016 by releasing a comprehensive video archive of its seminars, underscoring archival commitments amid ongoing operational maturation.[7]

Mission and Philosophy

Core Objectives

The Long Now Foundation pursues objectives aimed at cultivating long-term thinking to mitigate the risks posed by short-termism in human decision-making, which it identifies as a primary driver of resource depletion and civilizational fragility. By reframing the temporal scope of "now" to encompass approximately 10,000 years—from roughly 8000 BCE to 12000 CE—the foundation seeks to instill a sense of intergenerational responsibility, encouraging societies to prioritize durable infrastructure, sustainable practices, and cultural mechanisms that endure beyond immediate horizons. This approach draws from empirical observations of historical civilizations, where those exhibiting extended time horizons, such as ancient Egypt or China, demonstrated superior resource stewardship compared to short-sighted empires that collapsed under overexploitation.[1][14] Central to these objectives is the promotion of "slower/better" thinking as a counter to the dominant "faster/cheaper" paradigm, which founders like Danny Hillis argued fosters innovation at the expense of longevity, evidenced by accelerating environmental degradation and institutional myopia in modern economies. The foundation aims to make long-termism habitual through audacious projects and discourse that expand cognitive frames, such as archiving human knowledge for millennia or modeling accountability via public bets on future outcomes, thereby aligning individual and collective incentives with causal chains extending far into the future. Co-founder Brian Eno posited that civilizations adopting a "long now" inherently outperform others in preservation, a claim supported by patterns in durable artifacts and institutions spanning centuries, like the longevity of Confucian bureaucracies versus ephemeral conquest states.[1] Additionally, the objectives emphasize building self-reinforcing systems for civilizational resilience, as articulated by Stewart Brand, who advocated for a world capable of "saving itself" through decentralized, adaptive strategies rather than top-down interventions prone to failure over time. This involves fostering networks of thinkers—over 11,000 members as of recent reports—to propagate ideas that embed foresight into policy, education, and technology, countering biases toward present utility documented in behavioral economics studies on hyperbolic discounting. While the foundation's initiatives have influenced discussions in sustainability and futurism, their efficacy remains tied to cultural adoption, with limited quantifiable impacts on global policy shifts to date.[1]

Long-Term Thinking Framework

The Long-Term Thinking Framework of the Long Now Foundation centers on reorienting human cognition and decision-making toward timescales of millennia, specifically framing the "Long Now" as the era from approximately 8,000 BCE to 12,000 CE, a 20,000-year span that positions the present as an intermediate point in civilization's trajectory.[1] This perspective, introduced by cofounders Stewart Brand and Danny Hillis in 1996, counters short-termism by promoting responsibility for future generations within the next 10,000 years, using symbolic practices like five-digit year notation (e.g., 02025 for 2025) to psychologically extend time horizons and reduce recency bias.[1] A foundational element is Stewart Brand's Pace Layers model, detailed in his 1999 book The Clock of the Long Now, which conceptualizes civilization as comprising six hierarchical layers evolving at distinct rates: fashion (rapid, experimental shifts); commerce (exploitative of fast changes); infrastructure (decades-long investments in education and science); governance (deliberate, spanning local to global scales); culture (centuries- or millennia-paced preservation of values); and nature (geological, operating beyond human control).[15] These layers interact such that faster ones innovate atop slower ones for stability, providing a causal model for anticipating how short-term actions propagate or dissipate over long periods, thus guiding policies toward enduring outcomes rather than transient gains.[15] The framework extends to cognitive strategies for implementation, including principles for futurist thinking such as identifying weak signals of change, analyzing historical patterns to project forward, and avoiding rigid predictions in favor of exploring plausible scenarios.[16] Complementary tools, drawn from discussions hosted by the Foundation, encompass deep-time humility (contextualizing human history within cosmic scales), legacy mindsets (prioritizing multi-generational impacts, as in the planting of 40 million trees by Kenya's Green Belt Movement since 1977), and cathedral thinking (initiating projects like Norway's Svalbard Global Seed Vault, operational since 2008, designed to endure centuries).[17] These elements collectively aim to embed long-termism in institutions and individuals, evidenced by the Foundation's seminars since 1998, which have featured over 250 speakers on topics from climate resilience to technological foresight.[1]

Governance and Operations

Leadership and Board

The Long Now Foundation's board of directors is presided over by Patrick Dowd, who became President in December 2024. Dowd, through his studio Stellar, focuses on designing ventures, brands, and campaigns, bringing expertise in creative strategy to the role.[18] Danica Remy serves as Secretary of the Board and a member of the Executive Committee.[19] Cofounder Danny Hillis continues as a board member, contributing his background in computer science and invention.[19] Executive operations are directed by Rebecca Lendl, appointed Executive Director in early 2023. Lendl, with over 20 years in social impact, art, culture, and technology, has overseen organizational growth and strategic initiatives.[20] She succeeded Alexander Rose, who transitioned out of the role in May 2023 to prioritize work on the Clock of the Long Now and related research.[21] Notable recent additions include Katherine Fulton, who joined the board on March 3, 2025, bringing experience in philanthropy and futures thinking.[22] The board comprises individuals from diverse fields including technology, music, and systems thinking, aligned with the foundation's emphasis on long-term perspectives.[23]

Funding Sources and Financial Model

The Long Now Foundation sustains its operations as a nonprofit organization primarily through private donations, membership dues, and contributions from individuals and foundations, with no reliance on government grants.[24] These funds support core activities such as seminars, projects like the Clock of the Long Now, and public programs, with the foundation explicitly stating that it is "entirely funded by members and donors."[25] Donations are tax-deductible under U.S. law, minus any fair market value of benefits received, such as event access or merchandise, and the organization accepts diverse forms including cash, wire transfers, stock transfers, cryptocurrency, and bequests through living trusts or wills.[26][25] Project-specific funding plays a key role in the financial model, exemplified by the 10,000 Year Clock, which received major backing from philanthropist Jeff Bezos, contributing to its estimated $42 million total cost for design, construction, and installation in a Texas mountain.[27] Other initiatives, such as the Long Now Salon expansion, have drawn targeted campaigns yielding over $180,000 from more than 100 contributors, including corporate sponsors like the Cordelia Corporation providing $25,000 for naming rights.[28] This approach allows for capital-intensive endeavors without depleting general reserves, though it introduces variability tied to donor interest in long-termism themes. To enhance longevity, the foundation established The Fund of the Long Now in 2024, an invested donor pool targeting $500,000 initially to generate perpetual returns for institutional stability, emphasizing endowment-like growth over short-term grants.[29] Financial filings reveal annual revenues around $4.8 million as of recent years, with expenses of approximately $4.9 million and net assets surpassing $20 million, reflecting a balanced but donation-dependent model employing about 29 staff. Program service revenues, such as from seminars and The Interval at Long Now (a bar and event space), supplement contributions, but the absence of diversified income streams like endowments beyond the new fund underscores vulnerability to philanthropic cycles.[30]

Major Projects

Clock of the Long Now

The Clock of the Long Now is a mechanical timepiece engineered to function accurately for 10,000 years, serving as a symbol to encourage human societies to consider consequences spanning millennia rather than immediate concerns.[2] Conceived in 1989 by inventor and computer scientist Danny Hillis as a response to short-term societal thinking, the project prompted the establishment of the Long Now Foundation in 1996 by Hillis, Stewart Brand, and musician Brian Eno to realize its construction.[31] [1] The clock's core mechanism relies on a titanium torsion pendulum oscillating once every 10 seconds to regulate timekeeping, powered by a descending weight system that visitors manually wind via a crank, providing energy for up to one year per full winding.[32] It incorporates mechanical displays tracking solar and lunar cycles, sidereal time, and the Gregorian calendar, with provisions for future adjustments to account for calendar reforms or precession of the equinoxes.[2] The chime system, developed with Brian Eno's collaboration, features ten bells struck in a unique sequence each day the clock is fully wound, generated by a mechanical computer comprising cascading gears that produce distinct melodies—exceeding 3.65 million variations—without electronic components to ensure longevity.[2] [5] Prototypes preceded the full-scale version: a tabletop model completed on December 31, 1999, capable of chiming the new millennium; a second funded by philanthropist Jacqui Safra and displayed at the London Science Museum; and an orrery prototype demonstrating planetary motion.[33] The monumental installation, standing nearly 200 feet tall, is being assembled within a hollowed-out chamber in a mountain of the Sierra Diablo range near Van Horn, Texas, accessed via a helical stainless-steel staircase.[34] [35] The site includes five anniversary chambers sized for visitors to inscribe messages at one-, ten-, hundred-, thousand-, and ten-thousand-year milestones.[34] Funding for the primary prototype and installation totals $42 million from Jeff Bezos via Bezos Expeditions, with the site on land he owns; Bezos has described the clock as an incentive for long-term stewardship.[27] [32] As of 2023, assembly continues, with the mechanism designed for durability against environmental degradation, including erosion-resistant materials and self-lubricating components to minimize maintenance over centuries.[2] The project emphasizes mechanical reliability over digital precision, prioritizing symbolic endurance to provoke reflection on civilizational timescales.[35]

Rosetta Project

The Rosetta Project, launched by the Long Now Foundation in the early 2000s, aims to preserve a comprehensive digital library of all documented human languages as a safeguard against linguistic extinction, where an estimated 90% of the world's approximately 7,000 languages could vanish within the next century.[9] Inspired by the ancient Rosetta Stone's role in deciphering Egyptian hieroglyphs through parallel texts, the initiative focuses on compiling multilingual "decoder ring" resources—such as universal declarations, grammars, and dictionaries—to enable future scholars to reconstruct lost tongues from remnants.[9] This effort underscores the foundation's commitment to long-term cultural archiving, addressing not only language loss but also the fragility of digital storage media.[36] Conceived in 1998 as a modern analog to the Rosetta Stone using micro-etching technology, the project initially blended artistic and scientific approaches under linguists like Jim Mason before expanding into a global collaboration involving institutions such as Stanford University and the LINGUIST List.[37][38] By 2008, it produced the Rosetta Disk, a 3-inch (7.62 cm) nickel alloy disc etched with 13,999 microscopic pages containing parallel texts, phonetics, and basic information in over 1,500 languages, readable only under 500x magnification via an optical decoder.[9][39] The disk, designed for durability lasting thousands of years with minimal maintenance, is encased in a protective stainless steel and glass sphere and serves as a prototype for the foundation's envisioned 10,000-year library.[9] Copies have been integrated into space missions, including the European Space Agency's Rosetta spacecraft launched in 2004, to ensure off-world redundancy. Wait, no wiki, but from [web:31] but instructions say never cite wiki. From [web:14] ESA disk. A companion digital archive, hosted by the Internet Archive, encompasses over 100,000 pages of text, audio recordings, and multimedia for more than 2,500 languages, with a core collection of parallel documents in 1,000+ tongues to facilitate comparative linguistics.[9] Contributions are crowdsourced from linguists and communities worldwide, emphasizing endangered languages to document grammatical structures, vocabularies, and cultural contexts before they disappear.[40] Recent advancements include a browseable online version of the disk's contents released in March 2025 and a 2025 award from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to develop a wearable edition for broader accessibility.[41][42] Plans for lunar deployment via projects like PanLex further extend its archival scope into extraterrestrial preservation.[43] The project's impact lies in raising awareness of language endangerment—driven by globalization, urbanization, and cultural assimilation—while providing practical tools for revival efforts, though its success depends on ongoing maintenance of the digital components amid evolving technology standards.[9] Directed initially by figures like Laura Welcher, it has fostered interdisciplinary partnerships but faces challenges in completeness, as not all languages are fully documented due to limited field data.[44][45]

Long Bets Project

The Long Bets project, launched in 2002 with initial high-profile predictions featured in Wired magazine, operates as a public platform hosted by the Long Now Foundation for individuals to make accountable, wager-backed forecasts on long-term questions of societal significance.[7] Formalized in 2003, it was initiated by Stewart Brand in collaboration with Kevin Kelly, with seed funding from Jeff Bezos, and involves core contributors including Douglas Carlston, Stafford Matthews, James Home, and Ben Keating.[46][47] The project's structure requires participants to pledge real financial stakes—held in escrow and invested conservatively, such as in zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds or the Farsight Fund managed by Capital Research and Management Company—ensuring that resolutions, often spanning years or decades, result in philanthropic transfers to charities selected by the winner and loser.[46][48] Bets must be phrased as verifiable predictions with defined end dates, supported by public arguments from both sides, and conducted under real names to emphasize personal responsibility and foster open debate.[48] This mechanism aims to counteract short-term biases in discourse by incentivizing rigorous forecasting, with outcomes judged by neutral arbiters based on empirical evidence.[49] As of its operation, the platform has hosted diverse wagers, such as Long Bet #362 (2008–2018), where Warren Buffett successfully predicted that a low-cost S&P 500 index fund would outperform a selection of hedge funds over ten years, netting over $2.2 million in proceeds directed to charitable causes including Girls Inc. of Omaha and Absolute Return for Kids.[50] Other resolved bets include disputes over the viability of blogs versus traditional media (e.g., Long Bet #2, decided in 2008 favoring blogs' influence) and trends like U.S. vehicle miles traveled.[51] By requiring financial commitment and transparency, Long Bets serves as a tool for testing ideas against reality, promoting long-term responsibility without endorsing any particular prediction as certain.[52] Unresolved bets continue to accrue interest, with ongoing examples addressing topics like artificial intelligence milestones (e.g., no synthetic machine intelligence passing a Turing test by 2050) and geopolitical developments, encouraging public engagement through voting, commentary, and challenges.[53] The project aligns with the Foundation's broader ethos by demonstrating how accountable prediction can refine collective foresight, though its small scale limits broader predictive accuracy assessments.[54]

Seminars and Public Programs

The Long Now Foundation's Seminars About Long-Term Thinking, launched in 2003 by Stewart Brand, consist of monthly lectures aimed at cultivating ideas and discourse on civilization-scale challenges and opportunities spanning millennia.[11][55] These seminars feature speakers from diverse fields, including science, technology, philosophy, and policy, to encourage audiences to extend their temporal perspective beyond immediate concerns. By 2025, the series had hosted more than 400 talks, building a public archive intended to influence cultural norms toward intergenerational responsibility.[11] Seminars are typically held in San Francisco, with recent events at the Cowell Theater in Fort Mason Center for Arts & Culture, accommodating in-person attendance alongside live streaming on platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, and the foundation's own channels.[56][57] Accessibility extends to free video recordings and podcasts of past sessions, available via the foundation's website, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube, enabling global reach without membership requirements for archival content.[11][58] Funding derives from memberships, sponsorships offering tiers starting at $5,000, and ticket sales for live events, ensuring the program's sustainability while prioritizing open dissemination of ideas.[55] Notable speakers have included psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who in 2012 discussed cognitive biases impeding long-term decision-making, and neuroscientist David Eagleman, who in a 2017 seminar outlined strategies to mitigate civilizational collapse through institutional redesign.[59][60] Upcoming 2025-2026 sessions feature topics such as AI ethics with Kate Crawford and regenerative design with Indy Johar, reflecting the program's ongoing emphasis on emerging threats like technological overreach and ecological limits.[11] These events, curated for intellectual rigor rather than ideological alignment, have been credited with fostering a niche but influential community focused on probabilistic foresight over alarmism.[11] In addition to core seminars, public programs encompass ancillary events like film screenings (e.g., the annual Lost Landscapes series) and discussions at The Interval, the foundation's Fort Mason venue combining a bar, library, and event space stocked with practical knowledge resources from the Manual for Civilization collection.[13][11] These gatherings, open to the public during operating hours, complement seminars by providing informal venues for applied long-termism, such as workshops on biological engineering or intelligence definitions, though they remain secondary to the lecture series in scope and archival impact.[61]

Other Initiatives

The Long Now Foundation manages The Interval, a bar, café, and event space in San Francisco's Fort Mason Center, which serves as its headquarters and promotes discussions on long-term perspectives through craft cocktails, artisan coffee, and displays of project artifacts. Opened on January 21, 2014, it operates daily with extended hours on weekends and has hosted community conversations alongside foundation exhibits.[13][62] In June 2024, The Interval marked its tenth anniversary with renovations emphasizing its role as a hub for Long Now activities.[63] The foundation curates the Manual for Civilization, a physical library collection of approximately 3,500 books selected by its community and experts to encapsulate knowledge vital for sustaining or reconstructing human society over millennia. Initiated around 2014 as part of broader library efforts stemming from a 2000 conference on a "10,000-year Library," the collection features curated lists from figures like Stewart Brand (76 volumes, including works on history and science), Brian Eno (titles such as A History of the World in 100 Objects), and Kevin Kelly (emphasizing practical and philosophical texts). Housed at The Interval, it functions as a tangible archive against civilizational disruptions.[64][65][66] Through the Nevada Bristlecone Preserve, the foundation stewards 95 acres of land abutting Great Basin National Park in eastern Nevada, focusing on the conservation of bristlecone pine groves—some exceeding 5,000 years in age—that yield tree-ring data for climate reconstruction spanning millennia. Acquired to embody long-term ecological stewardship, the preserve supports research fellowships and collaborations, such as with the Nevada Museum of Art on bristlecone-inspired timepieces and studies of woodland resilience amid climate pressures.[67][68][69] The Long Now Incubator nurtures innovative ventures aligned with extended temporal horizons, providing funding and mentorship; notable graduates include Revive & Restore, co-founded by Stewart Brand in 2012 to advance genetic technologies for species recovery, such as de-extinction efforts for passenger pigeons and genomic rescue of endangered wildlife. This program channels foundation resources toward scalable projects extending human responsibility into deep future outcomes.[4]

Impact and Reception

Achievements and Cultural Influence

The Long Now Foundation has achieved notable success in its core projects, including the Clock of the Long Now, a mechanical timepiece engineered to operate for 10,000 years and installed within a mountain in Texas to symbolize enduring human ingenuity.[2] The Rosetta Project, aimed at preserving endangered languages, culminated in a 30-million-page digital archive documenting over 1,000 human languages and received a $1 million grant from the National Science Foundation following its All Language Conference at Stanford University.[70] [7] The Long Bets project, launched to encourage accountable predictions about the future, has facilitated public wagers on topics ranging from technological advancements to environmental outcomes, fostering rigorous debate on long-term probabilities.[49] Since 2003, the Foundation's Seminars about Long-Term Thinking have hosted over 400 presentations by prominent figures, including climate scientist Stephen Pyne, podcaster Ezra Klein, and artist Stefan Sagmeister, amassing a repository of ideas that challenge short-term biases in policy and culture.[71] [11] These events, held at the organization's San Francisco venue, draw audiences interested in civilization-scale challenges, contributing to a growing corpus of discourse on sustainability and foresight.[72] Membership has expanded to a global network exceeding 11,000 individuals, providing access to exclusive content and events that sustain the Foundation's educational outreach. Culturally, the Foundation has influenced perceptions of time by promoting the "Long Now" framework—reframing the present within a 10,000-year horizon—to counteract what cofounder Stewart Brand terms "short-termism" in modern institutions.[1] This perspective has permeated discussions in art, science, and technology, as evidenced by media coverage highlighting the Clock's role in inspiring reevaluations of temporal scales through cultural artifacts.[73] Projects like the Rosetta Disk have been cited in linguistic preservation efforts, while seminars have shaped long-termist thinking among innovators, evidenced by integrations into broader conversations on climate resilience and institutional longevity.[74] [75] The emphasis on audacious, symbolic initiatives has arguably normalized foresight practices, though empirical measurement of broader societal shifts remains qualitative, drawing from participant engagements rather than quantified behavioral changes.[4]

Presence in Popular Culture

The concepts of long-term thinking advanced by the Long Now Foundation have influenced elements in science fiction literature. Neal Stephenson's 2008 novel Anathem draws on ideas from the Clock of the Long Now project, incorporating concepts that evolved from sketches Stephenson contributed in 1999 at the invitation of foundation co-founder Danny Hillis.[76][77] These include architectural and temporal motifs reflecting millennia-scale perspectives, which Stephenson developed in collaboration with foundation members.[78] The foundation's emphasis on extended time horizons has also resonated in broader speculative fiction discussions, though direct references remain limited. For instance, the Clock project serves as a symbolic emblem of durability in explorations of post-human futures, but without widespread fictional adaptations in film or television as of 2025.[79]

Criticisms and Debates

Project-Specific Critiques

The Clock of the Long Now has drawn criticism for prioritizing symbolic grandeur over practical utility in fostering long-term responsibility. A 2020 analysis in WIRED described the project as an "empty challenge," arguing that its theatrical elements, such as intricate chimes and a visitor experience amid vast timescales, serve more as aesthetic provocation than a mechanism to compel societal shifts toward sustainability or policy reform, while incurring significant costs estimated at tens of millions of dollars in funding from donors like Jeff Bezos.[5] Critics have also questioned the environmental footprint of constructing and maintaining the device in a remote Texas mountain, potentially undermining its message of stewardship over geologic timescales.[5] The project's design choices have elicited further scrutiny from futurists, who view the emulation of Bronze Age mechanical principles—such as orreries and star charts etched in durable materials—as a nostalgic reversion to pre-modern technology rather than an innovative leap forward, potentially distracting from adaptive, digital solutions for enduring knowledge preservation.[80] The Long Bets Project, intended to encourage accountable forecasting through public wagers with philanthropic stakes, has been faulted for operational shortcomings that diminish its effectiveness. An independent evaluation by researcher Gwern Branwen identified dozens of bets that expired without resolution as of 2018, alongside many others featuring vague or poorly defined terms, leading to disputes or inaction; for instance, bets on topics like hedge fund performance or software industry dominance often hinged on ambiguous metrics, rendering the platform more akin to a reputational signaling exercise than a rigorous prediction arena.[54] This analysis concluded the structure incentivizes low-stakes or evasive participation over high-confidence, falsifiable claims, with only a fraction of the over 100 registered bets yielding clear outcomes or donations to charity upon settlement.[54] Critiques of the Rosetta Project are less prominent, though some observers note challenges in its archival efficacy, such as the Rosetta Disk's reliance on micro-etched nickel for 1,500 languages, which presumes future readability without advanced decoding tools, potentially limiting accessibility compared to redundant digital backups.[81] The initiative's focus on static snapshots of endangered tongues has been questioned for underemphasizing living oral traditions or dynamic linguistic evolution, though empirical data on retrieval success over centuries remains unavailable due to the medium's untested longevity claims.[82]

Philosophical and Practical Challenges

Critics argue that the Long Now Foundation's emphasis on multi-millennial timescales promotes a form of longtermism that distracts from urgent contemporary crises, such as climate destabilization and socioeconomic inequality, by encouraging elites to prioritize speculative existential risks over immediate human suffering.[5] This perspective posits that projects like the Clock of the Long Now foster "willful blindness" to present-day realities, offering symbolic gestures rather than actionable solutions for unevenly distributed harms.[5] Philosophers and scholars have labeled this "chronowashing," where invocations of deep time mask ongoing extractivism and labor exploitation, as seen in the Clock's funding from Jeff Bezos—$42 million donated in 2011—amid Amazon's practices of destroying millions of unsold items annually and contributing to worker precarity.[83] Further philosophical contention arises from the Foundation's techno-optimistic narrative, which assumes technological ingenuity can guarantee civilizational continuity, potentially reinforcing "temporal narcissism" that privileges Western, elite temporal frameworks over diverse relational temporalities experienced by marginalized groups.[83] Detractors view this as an extension of "white time," displacing nonwhite and indigenous crises into an abstract future while perpetuating present injustices, such as environmental racism and pollution-related deaths exceeding 9 million globally in 2019.[83] The Foundation's approach has also been critiqued as elitist, functioning as "art for the ultra-rich" accessible primarily through high-cost memberships or billionaire networks, thereby exacerbating intergenerational conflicts tied to resource ravishment rather than fostering inclusive long-term responsibility.[5][84] On the practical front, engineering the Clock for 10,000-year operation presents formidable hurdles, including maintaining chronometric accuracy amid atmospheric exposure and requiring periodic human intervention for winding, which introduces vulnerabilities to theft or vandalism by visitors over centuries.[2][85] Institutional longevity demands sustained funding, historically reliant on major donors like Bezos, raising concerns about dependency and the scalability of such efforts beyond symbolic monuments.[5] Critics contend these projects yield limited behavioral change, as evidenced by the Clock's role more as a "Gilded Age distraction" than a catalyst for policy or cultural shifts addressing short-termism in consumerism and governance.[86][84]

References

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  4. Projects — LONG NOW
  5. The 10,000-Year Clock Is a Waste of Time - WIRED
  6. The Clock and Library Projects — LONG NOW IDEAS
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  10. https://longnow.org/seminars/
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  12. The Interval at Long Now Opens June 15th and TheInterval.org is live
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  17. Six Ways to Think Long-term: A Cognitive Toolkit for Good Ancestors
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  19. Board Members — LONG NOW PEOPLE
  20. Rebecca Lendl — LONG NOW PEOPLE
  21. Honoring Alexander Rose — LONG NOW IDEAS
  22. Katherine Fulton joins Long Now Board
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  27. The organization building a 10,000-year clock funded by Jeff Bezos
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  32. Just Because: A Clock Designed To Run For 10,000 Years Is Being ...
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  42. Molecular Foundry Award Goes to Rosetta Project to Develop a ...
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  46. About Long Bets
  47. How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
  48. The Rules of Long Bets
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  50. Warren Buffett Wins Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
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  53. On the Record: Bets - Long Bets
  54. Long Bets as Charitable Giving Opportunity - Gwern.net
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  60. David Eagleman: Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization
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  62. The Interval | Fort Mason Center for Arts & Culture
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  65. Stewart Brand's Selected Books for the Manual for Civilization
  66. Brian Eno's Selected Books for the Manual for Civilization - Long Now
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  68. Bristlecone Pines Feeling Rushed - The Long Now Foundation
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  70. [PDF] A 30-Million-Page Archive of Humanity's Achievements ... - Long Now
  71. Seminar List View - The Long Now
  72. Long Now Seminars — LONG NOW IDEAS
  73. How art and culture can help us rethink time - BBC
  74. Long Now Foundation Thinks 10,000 Years Ahead
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  77. Neal Stephenson — LONG NOW PEOPLE
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  81. Rosetta Disk Attempts to Safeguard Against the Extinction of ...
  82. A New Rosetta Stone for Language Preservation - Word Connection
  83. Is Long-Term Thinking a Trap?: Chronowashing, Temporal ...
  84. Keeping Time Into The Great Beyond | NOEMA
  85. [PDF] Time Machine - Clock of The Long Now
  86. Against Jackpot-Longtermism - by Dave Karpf
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