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2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference
2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference
2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference
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2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference
Map
Date31 October – 13 November 2021 (2021-10-31 – 2021-11-13)
LocationSEC Centre, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
Coordinates55°51′40″N 04°17′17″W / 55.86111°N 4.28806°W / 55.86111; -4.28806
Also known asCOP26 (UNFCCC)
CMP16 (Kyoto Protocol)
CMA3 (Paris Agreement)
Organised byUnited Kingdom and Italy
PresidentAlok Sharma
Previous event← Madrid 2019
Next event→ Sharm El Sheikh 2022
Websiteukcop26.org Edit this at Wikidata

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, more commonly referred to as COP26, was the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference, held at the SEC Centre in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom, from 31 October to 13 November 2021. The president of the conference was UK cabinet minister Alok Sharma.[1][2] Delayed for a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic,[3] it was the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the third meeting of the parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement (designated CMA1, CMA2, CMA3), and the 16th meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP16).

The conference was the first since the Paris Agreement of COP21 that expected parties to make enhanced commitments towards mitigating climate change; the Paris Agreement requires parties to carry out a process colloquially known as the 'ratchet mechanism' every five years to provide improved national pledges.[4] The result of COP26 was the Glasgow Climate Pact, negotiated through consensus of the representatives of the 197 attending parties. Owing to late interventions from India and China that weakened a move to end coal power and fossil fuel subsidies, the conference ended with the adoption of a less stringent resolution than some anticipated.[5][6] Nevertheless, the pact was the first climate deal to explicitly commit to reducing the use of coal. It included wording that encouraged more urgent greenhouse gas emissions cuts and promised more climate finance for developing countries to adapt to climate impacts.[7]

In the midst of the conference, on 6 November 2021, a march against inadequate action at the conference, as well as for other climate change-related issues, became the largest protest in Glasgow since anti-Iraq War marches in 2003.[8] Additional rallies took place in 100 other countries.

Background

[edit]

Presidency

[edit]
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (left) and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (right) in London at the launch of COP26 in February 2020, prior to it being postponed a year
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at COP26

The United Kingdom holds the presidency of COP26 until the start of COP27.[9] Initially, the Minister of State for Energy and Clean Growth, Claire Perry, was appointed as president of the conference, but she was removed on 31 January 2020, several months after she had stepped down as an MP.[10][11] Former Prime Minister David Cameron and former Foreign Secretary William Hague declined to take the role.[12] On 13 February 2020, Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary Alok Sharma was appointed.[13] On 8 January 2021, Sharma was succeeded by Kwasi Kwarteng as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary and moved to the Cabinet Office, in order to focus on the presidency full-time.[14]

Nigel Topping, the former CEO of climate change action organization We Mean Business, was appointed the UK Government's High Level Climate Action Champion for COP26.[15][16]

Italy partnered with the UK in leading COP26. For the most part, their role was in preparatory work such as the hosting of a pre-COP session and an event for young people called Youth4Climate 2020: Driving Ambition. These events took place between 28 September and 2 October 2020 in Milan.[17]

Postponement

[edit]

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, in April 2020 the conference was postponed to 31 October – 12 November 2021.[3][18] Both host countries, Italy and the UK, were heavily affected by the pandemic, and the venue of the conference, the SEC Centre in Glasgow, was converted in May 2020 into a temporary hospital for COVID-19 patients in Scotland.[19]

Convention Secretary Patricia Espinosa tweeted that "in light of the ongoing, worldwide effects of COVID-19, holding an ambitious, inclusive, COP26 in November 2020 is not possible."[20] She also indicated that economies restarting would be an opportunity to "shape the 21st-century economy in ways that are clean, green, healthy, just, safe and more resilient."[20] The rearranged date was announced in May 2020.[2] Earlier in 2021, the UK and Italy hosted summits of the G7 and G20, respectively.[21]

Independent observers noted that though not directly related, the postponement gave the international community time to respond to the outcome of the United States presidential election, held in November 2020.[22][23] President Donald Trump had withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement, although this could not take effect until the day after the election; while his Democratic challengers pledged to immediately rejoin and increase ambition to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.[24] Joe Biden did so upon being elected as president.[25] At the conference, Biden apologized for Trump's withdrawal from the agreement.[26]

Sponsors

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Previous summits have been sponsored by fossil fuel companies. To reduce this influence, the UK government decided that sponsors "have to have real commitments in place to help them reach net zero in the near future".[27] The first principal partners included three British energy companies and a banking and insurance company.[28]

Location and participation

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From left to right: Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at COP26

Before the summit councils in and around Glasgow pledged to plant 18 million trees during the following decade: the Clyde Climate Forest (CCF) is projected to increase tree coverage in the urban areas of the Greater Glasgow region to 20%.[29]

In September 2021, the conference was urged by Climate Action Network to ensure attendees would be able to attend in spite of travel restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the months before the conference, the British government had restrictions on travel from certain countries in place, and COVID passports were required in certain venues. Critics suggested unequal deployment of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide could exclude the participation of representatives of poorer countries most affected by climate change.[30][31][32] The UK subsequently relaxed travel rules for delegations.[33] Only four Pacific Islands nations sent delegations due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, with most island nations compelled to send smaller teams than they otherwise would have.[34][35] Organizers have in place numerous COVID-19 rules for attendees, dependent on vaccination status.[36]

On 4 June 2021, a nighttime light projection onto the Tolbooth Steeple was installed, under the Climate Clock initiative. The projected Deadline and Lifeline statistics count the time window before 1.5 °C warming would become inevitable, and the percentage of global energy delivered through renewables, respectively.[37] The Scottish Events Campus (SEC), known as the Blue Zone, temporarily became United Nations territory: the other main venue is the Green Zone at Glasgow Science Centre.[38]

The summit was described as receiving "the cleanest electricity in the UK", as 70% was supplied from low-carbon nuclear power from plants in Torness and Hunterston B, while the rest mostly came from wind power.[39]

Medical cover

[edit]

The provision of medical services for the event was provided by BASICS Scotland, Amvale Medical and the Scottish Ambulance Service. The medical centre was visited by both Scottish National Clinical Director Jason Leitch and Scottish Health Secretary Humza Yousaf during the conference.[40][41]

Attendees

[edit]
US President Joe Biden at the opening ceremony
Indonesian attendees in traditional dress, on the first day of the conference
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi meeting with CEO and Special Representative of the UNSG for Sustainable Energy for all and Co-Chair on UN Energy Damilola Ogunbiyi

Twenty-five thousand delegates from nearly 200 countries were expected to attend,[42][43] and around 120 heads of state came.[44] Among the attendees were UN secretary-general António Guterres, United States president Joe Biden, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Angela Merkel, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, Indonesian president Joko Widodo, Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida, Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky[45][46] Former United States president Barack Obama[47][48] and English broadcaster and natural historian David Attenborough, who was named COP26 People's Advocate, spoke at the summit.[49]

Australian prime minister Scott Morrison spoke.[50] Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš denounced the proposed European Union Fit for 55 laws, part of the European Green Deal, saying that the bloc "can achieve nothing without the participation of the largest polluters such as China or the USA".[51]

Prince Charles addressed the opening ceremony in person.[52] Queen Elizabeth, having been advised to rest by doctors, addressed the conference by video message.[53] Bill Gates called for a "green industrial revolution" to beat the climate crisis.[54]

The fossil fuel industry was the largest delegation at the conference, with 503 people accredited.[55]

Non-attendees

[edit]

In October 2021, China's leader Xi Jinping announced he would not be attending the conference in person[56] and instead delivered a written address as the organizers did not provide an opportunity for a video address.[57] With greenhouse gas emissions by China being the world's largest, Reuters said this made it less likely the conference would result in a significant climate deal.[58] However, a Chinese delegation led by climate change envoy Xie Zhenhua did attend.[59] The 2021 global energy crisis intensified pressures on China ahead of the summit.[60][61] The prime ministers or heads of state of South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia and Vatican City also did not attend the meeting.[62][63][64][65]

Russian president Vladimir Putin said his non-attendance was due to concerns relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.[66] Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi did not attend;[62] a formal request had been made by Struan Stevenson and Iranian exiles of the National Council of Resistance of Iran to the Scotland police, to arrest Raisi for crimes against humanity if he attended based on the legal concept of universal jurisdiction.[67][68] Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman also did not attend the summit.[69] Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who faced international condemnation over rising deforestation of the Amazon rainforest,[70] also decided not to attend the summit personally.[71]

The non-attendance of both Putin and Xi received criticism from U.S. president Joe Biden[72][73] and former American president Barack Obama.[74]

Myanmar and Afghanistan were entirely absent; both countries had their UN-recognized governments ousted militarily in 2021.[75] The Myanmar military junta was blocked from entry to the summit.[76] Six exiled Afghan climate experts had their applications rejected by the UNFCCC.[77] Additionally, the island nation of Kiribati did not send participants, while fellow island nations Vanuatu and Samoa registered but did not send a delegation.[78]

Ratchet mechanism

[edit]

Under the Paris Agreement, countries submitted pledges called nationally determined contributions, to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. Under the framework of the Paris Agreement, each country is expected to submit enhanced nationally determined contributions every five years, to ratchet up the ambition to mitigate climate change.[79] When the Paris Agreement was signed at COP21, the conference of 2020 was set to be the first ratcheting up. Even though the 2020 conference was postponed to 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, dozens of countries still had not updated their pledges by early October 2021.[80] Collective progress towards implementation of the Paris Agreement in mitigation, adaptation and finance flows and means of implementation and support will be measured by global stocktakes, the first of which is due to be completed in 2023.[81]

Outcomes

[edit]
Main article: Glasgow Climate Pact

On 13 November 2021, the participating 197 countries agreed to a new deal, known as the Glasgow Climate Pact, aimed at staving off dangerous climate change.[82]

The pact "Reaffirms the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels" and "Recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around midcentury, as well as deep reductions in other greenhouse gases."[83] However, achieving the target is not ensured, as with existing pledges the emissions in the year 2030 will be 14% higher than in 2010.[84]

The final agreement explicitly mentions coal, which is the single biggest contributor to climate change. Previous COP agreements have not mentioned coal, oil or gas, or even fossil fuels in general, as a driver, or major cause of climate change, making the Glasgow Climate Pact the first ever climate deal to explicitly plan to reduce unabated coal power. The wording in the agreement refers to an intention to "phase down" use of unabated coal power, rather than to phase it out.[85] From this wording it implicitly follows that utilizing coal power with "abation" (net-zero emission), e.g. by neutralizing the resulting carbon dioxide via the CO2-to-stone process, need not be reduced. However, this carbon capture and storage is too expensive for most coal fired power stations.[86]

Over 140 countries pledged to reach net-zero emissions. This includes 90% of global GDP.[87]

Indonesian President Joko Widodo promised to end and reverse deforestation in Indonesia by 2030

More than 100 countries, including Brazil, pledged to reverse deforestation by 2030.[88]

The final text of the Glasgow Climate Pact include a call to: "accelerating efforts towards... phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies".[83] 34 countries with several banks and financial agencies pledged to stop international funding for "unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022, except in limited and clearly defined circumstances that are consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement" and increase financing of more sustainable projects,[89] including Canada—the main provider of such finances, France, Germany, Italy and Spain—the biggest financers in European Union.[90]

More than 40 countries pledged to move away from coal.[91]

The United States and China reached an agreement about cooperation on measures to stop climate change, including lowering methane emissions, phasing out the use of coal, and forest conservation.[92]

39 countries and institutions signed the Glasgow Statement, an international agreement to shift international public finance away from fossil fuels towards clean energy. If implemented properly, the Glasgow Statement will shift $28 billion per year from fossil fuels to clean energy.[89][93]

India promised to draw half of its energy requirement from renewable sources by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2070.[94]

Governments of 24 developed countries and a group of major car manufacturers such as GM, Ford, Volvo, BYD Auto, Jaguar Land Rover, and Mercedes-Benz have committed to "work towards all sales of new cars and vans being zero emission globally by 2040, and by no later than 2035 in leading markets".[95][96] Major car manufacturing nations like China, the US, Japan, Germany, and South Korea, as well as Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi, Stellantis, Honda, and Hyundai had not signed up to the pledge.[97]

New pledges for financial help for climate change mitigation and adaptation were announced.[98]

Climate Action Tracker on 9 November 2021, described the results as follows: the global temperature will rise by 2.7 °C by the end of the century with current policies. The temperature will rise by 2.4 °C if only the pledges for 2030 are implemented, by 2.1 °C if the long-term targets are also achieved and by 1.8 °C if all the announced targets are fully achieved.[99]

The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) announced that financial institutions controlling $130 trillion were now signed up to 'net zero' emissions pledges by 2050.[100]

Negotiations

[edit]

The world leaders' summit was on 1 and 2 November, with each leader giving a national statement.[101]

An important goal of the conference organizers is to keep a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) temperature rise within reach.[102] According to the BBC, negotiators who may be key to the dealmaking include Xie Zhenhua, Ayman Shasly, Sheikh Hasina and Teresa Ribera.[103]

China said it aims to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and to become carbon neutral by 2060.[104] It was asked to set a clear earlier date as this would have a very large "positive impact" on the Paris Agreement targets.[105][104][106] Officials later said the 2030 target was something to "strive to" and not something to be ensured.[107]

Deforestation

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Brazil, home to 60% of the Amazon rainforest, promised to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030.[108] (National Confederation of Industry virtual cast from Brasília on 3 September 2021)

Leaders of more than 100 countries with around 85% of the world's forests, including Canada, Russia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United States,[109] agreed to end deforestation by 2030, improving on a similar 2014 agreement by now including Brazil,[110] Indonesia,[111] businesses[112] and more financial resources.[113] Signatories of the 2014 agreement, the New York Declaration on Forests, pledged to half deforestation by 2020 and end it by 2030; however, in the 2014–2020 period deforestation increased.[109]

Indonesia's environment minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar stated that "forcing Indonesia to zero deforestation in 2030 is clearly inappropriate and unfair".[114]

Article 6

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Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which describes rules for an international carbon market (such as for trees in the deforestation agreement[112]) and other forms of international cooperation, is being discussed as it is the last piece of the rulebook remaining to be finalized.[115] Although the parties have agreed in principle to avoid double counting of emission reduction across more than one country's greenhouse gas inventory, exactly how much double counting will actually occur remains unclear.[115] Carrying forward pre-2020 Kyoto carbon credits will be discussed, but is highly unlikely to be agreed.[116] Therefore, Article 6 rules could make a big difference to future emissions.[116]

Finance

[edit]

Climate finance for adaptation and mitigation was one of the principal topics of negotiation.[117] Poor countries want more money for adaptation, whereas donors prefer to finance mitigation as that has a chance of making a profit.[118] Appointed to the role of Climate Finance Adviser was Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England.[119] The Paris agreement included US$100 billion annually in finance by 2020 for developing countries.[120] However, wealthy countries failed to live up to that promise, with members of the OECD behind in their commitments and unlikely to reach the agreed amount before 2023.[121] A group of large finance companies committed to net zero portfolios and loan books by 2050.[122] Scotland became the first country to contribute to a loss and damage fund.[123]

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Joe Biden at COP26

Coal

[edit]

South Africa is set to receive $8.5 billion to end its reliance on coal, details are sparse regarding capping mines, exports and local community support for the workers in the industry.[124][125] Countries including Chile, Poland, Ukraine, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam also agreed to phase out coal in the 2030s for major economies, and the 2040s for poorer nations.[126] These nations include some of the world's most intensive users of coal.[127] However, they do not include the world's largest users of the fuel, China, India, and the United States of America.[127] Japan is to invest $100 million in the transformation of fossil-fired plants into ones based on ammonia and hydrogen fuel.[128]

Methane

[edit]

The US and many other countries agreed to limit methane emissions.[129] More than 80 countries signed up to a global methane pledge, agreeing to cut emissions by 30% by the end of the decade. The US and European leaders say tackling the potent greenhouse gas is crucial to keeping warming limited to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[130] Australia, China, Russia, India and Iran did not sign the deal, but it is hoped more countries will join later.[113]

Russia demanded sanction relief on green investment projects for energy companies such as Gazprom. Russia's climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriyev accused Western countries of hypocrisy for urging Russia "to reduce methane leakages and yet we have Gazprom under sanctions".[131]

Net-zero targets

[edit]

Many attendees committed to net-zero carbon emissions, with India and Japan making specific commitments at the conference. India, the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide by jurisdiction, set the latest target date planning to be net-zero by 2070. Japan is to offer up to $10 billion in additional funding to support decarbonization in Asia.[132][133][134] Earlier in October, China—the largest emitter of carbon dioxide by jurisdiction—had committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2060,[135] and it was believed by the British government that India would issue a similar commitment.[136] However, this was the first time that a date for carbon neutrality had been given as part of India's climate policy.[137] Green hydrogen has emerged as one of the major areas where companies can collaborate to help decarbonize hard to abate industries.[138]

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison at COP26

Adaptation

[edit]

Big city mayors concerned about climate—the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group—such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu,[139] called for more urban climate adaptation, especially in low-income countries.[140]

Socioeconomic transformation

[edit]

Agriculture

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45 countries, including the UK, U.S., Japan, Germany, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Vietnam, Philippines, Gabon, Ethiopia, Ghana and Uruguay, pledged to give more than $4 billion for transition to sustainable agriculture. The organization "Slow Food" expressed concern about the effectivity of the spendings, as they concentrate on technological solutions and reforestation in place of "a holistic agroecology that transforms food from a mass-produced commodity into part of a sustainable system that works within natural boundaries".[141]

Transportation

[edit]
Avanti West Coast Class 390 in COP26 Climate livery departs from London Euston.

The conference placed electric vehicles and pledges for vehicle electrification at the centre, including the electric OX truck,[142] while, according to activists, better investment and political will for sustainable transport modes have not been forced through with the focus not being on public transport and cycling.[143]

Fossil fuels

[edit]

A draft text published on 10 November asked governments to accelerate phase-outs and desubsidization of fossil fuels, the largest source of (anthropogenic) global greenhouse gas emissions,[144][145][146] but was opposed by several countries with large fossil fuels based economic sectors.[147][148][149]

Reception

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Beforehand and at the outset

[edit]

Business leaders and politicians including Jeff Bezos, Prince Charles, Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and Angela Merkel who travelled to Glasgow in private airplanes were accused of hypocrisy by commentators and campaigners. Event planners, however, insisted that the conference would be carbon-neutral.[150] Around 400 private jets arrived at Glasgow for the talks.[151]

In October 2021, the BBC reported that a huge leak of documents revealed that Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia were among countries asking the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels. It also showed that some wealthy nations (including Switzerland and Australia) were questioning paying more to poorer states to move to greener technologies. The BBC reported that the lobbying raised questions for the COP26 climate summit.[152] The Australian government has been criticized for hosting a fossil fuel company at the summit, not enhancing its ambitions closer to its capacities, not pledging to reduce methane emissions and not pledging to phase out coal.[153][154][155][156][157]

In an interview shortly before the conference, Greta Thunberg, asked how optimistic she was that the conference could achieve anything, responded "Nothing has changed from previous years really. The leaders will say 'we'll do this and we'll do this, and we will put our forces together and achieve this', and then they will do nothing. Maybe some symbolic things and creative accounting and things that don't really have a big impact. We can have as many COPs as we want, but nothing real will come out of it."[158] Queen Elizabeth II voiced concerns in a private conversation overheard via a hot mic, saying: "It's really irritating when they talk, but they don't do."[58]

COP26 feedback from experts like Edmond Fernandes, Fatemeh Rezaei[159] stated that a public health in all policies approach, built on a singular agenda to strengthen risk reduction initiatives, reduce the disease burden and also equip health systems to handle surge capacities will be critical for sustainability.[160]

Protests

[edit]
Enough blah blah blah sign
A sign at a Fridays for Future protest in Milan, Italy, on 1 October 2021 (basta means 'enough')

By 1 November, at the outset of the conference, the climate change activist Greta Thunberg criticized the summit at a protest in Glasgow with members from the organization Fridays for Future, saying "This COP26 is so far just like the previous COPs and that has led us nowhere. They have led us nowhere."[161][162]

On 5 November, a Fridays for Future protest at which Thunberg spoke gathered thousands of people, largely schoolchildren. Attendees supported more immediate and far-reaching action on climate change. Glasgow City Council and most neighbouring councils stated that students would not be punished if parents informed their schools of the absence.[163] On 6 November—the Global Day of Action for Climate Justice—around 100,000 people joined a march in Glasgow, according to BBC News, with coaches and group cycle rides organized for participants to travel from around the United Kingdom. The protests were the largest in Glasgow since anti-Iraq War marches in 2003. A London march drew 10,000 people according to police and 20,000 according to organizers.[8][164] The Times anticipated that total participants would number over two million.[165] An additional 100 marches took place elsewhere in the country, with a total of 300 protests across 100 countries, according to The Guardian.[164] On 8 November, Fridays for Future activists including Dominika Lasota and Nicole Becker held a protest prior to a speech by former US president Barack Obama, arguing that he had failed to fulfill his promise to provide US$100 billion in climate funding to developing countries. The protestors held banners stating, "Show us the money".[166]

Vanessa Nakate and indigenous activists gave speeches at Glasgow. Issues highlighted by protesters included putting corporate interests at the forefront and politicians' failure to address the climate emergency with the required urgency as well as its underlying causes. Kahnawake Mohawk people, ecology scientists, vegan activists, trade unionists and socialists were present at marches.[8][164]

Event organisation

[edit]
Protesters in Glasgow on 3 October
Protesters in Melbourne, Australia, on 6 November, the Global Day of Action for Climate Justice

One intended participant, the Israeli energy minister Karine Elharrar, was unable to attend on 1 November due to wheelchair accessibility issues.[167][168]

The sustainability of the COP26 menu was criticized by the animal and climate justice group Animal Rebellion, with almost 60% of the menu being meat and dairy based, and dishes labelled as high-carbon being served at food stands.[169] The head of catering at COP26, Lorna Wilson, said that staff had been "working towards" a catering strategy of 95% food from the UK and 5% from abroad. Wilson said the menu was 40% plant-based and 60% vegetarian overall. The event eliminated single-use cups and plastics.[170]

There was concern about the inclusion and influence of large delegations of industries, particularly big polluting companies, and financial organizations involved in the causes of greenhouse gas emissions at the conference.[171][55]

Further criticism

[edit]

Further criticisms[who?] of the results include that it needs not only commitments but also clear directions for mitigation and adaptation and robust mechanisms put in place for the relevant parties to be held accountable to their commitments.[172] CNBC, BBC, Axios and CBS News found that financial firms are not prevented from making private investments in fossil fuels,[173][174] that there is a lack of focus on and transparency of the quality—rather than quantity or amounts—of pledges,[173] that ending deforestation by 2030 is too late,[175] that countries need to publish comprehensive policy-plans on how they will achieve their targets,[174] and that the pledges are not mandatory, with no punishment mechanisms getting established at the conference[176] and apparent content with a "self-regulation" approach for relevant organizations. According to critics, such issues could turn the conference into a "greenwashing" event of empty promises.[173][177][178]

There is a criticism about the lack of people from most affected people and areas.[179] Kaossara Sani became one of the persons who came from this place and sent her criticism by sending her manifesto to Forbes about what happened in Sahel and her criticism to COP26.[180]

Academicians and practitioners on the field have floated several missing links of COP26 particularly the approach to climate change, disasters and public health consequences stemming from the meeting and how the neglect of healthcare will impact the Asia Pacific Region as a whole.[181]

Misinformation

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According to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue and a network of journalism organizations, the COP meeting became a target for climate misinformation, prominently "narratives of delay".[182]

Results

[edit]

On 9 November, Climate Action Tracker reported that the global human civilization is on track for a 2.7 °C temperature increase in the Earth system by the end of the century with current policies. The temperature will rise by 2.4 °C if the pledges for 2030 will be implemented, by 2.1 °C if the long-term targets will be implemented also and by 1.8 °C if in addition all the targets in discussion will be fully implemented. Current targets for 2030 remain "totally inadequate". Coal and natural gas consumption are the main cause for the gap between pledges and policies. They assessed pledges by 40 countries that account for 85% of pledged net-zero emissions cuts and found that only polities responsible for 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions—EU, UK, Chile and Costa Rica—have pledged a set of targets that they rated to be "acceptable" for comprehensiveness and for having a published detailed official policy‑plan that describes the steps and ways by which these targets could be realized.[99][183][184][185]

On 10 November, it was reported that the United States and China agreed on a framework to reduce carbon emissions by cooperating on measures to lower the use of methane, phase out the use of coal and increased protection of forests.[92]

On 11 November, the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC), a group of 22 countries including China and India, asked for the commitment to mitigation to be entirely removed from the draft text, as they apparently argue that developing countries should not be held to the same deadlines as wealthier nations.[186] The request was criticized as illogical and self-defeating as it would end up harming people in developing countries the most[186] and an article in the Daily Beast described the request as an attempt by China to sabotage the draft commitment.[187] China was responsible for around 27% of the world's current GHG emissions in 2019.[188][189][190]

See also

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References

[edit]

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, designated as the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), convened from 31 October to 13 November 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom, with Italy as co-host. Hosted under the presidency of Alok Sharma and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the event gathered over 120 heads of state and government alongside more than 40,000 delegates to advance commitments under the Paris Agreement toward limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The conference yielded the , a non-binding decision urging nations to accelerate emissions reductions, revisit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by the end of 2022, and phase down unabated coal power alongside inefficient —the first explicit reference to fossil fuels in a COP text—though the phrasing shifted from "phase out" to "phase down" following interventions by and . Negotiators finalized the rulebook, including mechanisms for international carbon trading under Article 6, while separate pledges addressed reversal by 2030, cuts, and adaptation finance. Despite these steps, COP26 faced criticism for insufficient ambition, as projected emissions pathways remained incompatible with 1.5°C goals, and developed countries acknowledged but did not rectify their failure to meet the $100 billion annual climate finance pledge to developing nations by 2020. Developing countries expressed frustration over the lack of a dedicated loss and damage fund and perceived inequities in mitigation burdens, highlighting persistent divides between emitters and vulnerable states. The outcomes underscored the challenges of enforcing voluntary agreements amid geopolitical tensions, with global emissions continuing to rise post-conference.

Historical and Preparatory Context

Evolution of UNFCCC COP Process

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was opened for signature at the in Rio de Janeiro on June 4, 1992, establishing a foundational framework for international cooperation to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels achievable through . The Convention entered into force on March 21, 1994, following by the required 50 states, and designated the (COP) as its supreme decision-making body to periodically review implementation, promote compliance, and negotiate enhancements to commitments. The first COP convened in , , from March 28 to April 7, 1995, where parties adopted the Berlin Mandate, initiating negotiations for quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives for Annex I (developed) countries beyond the year 2000, reflecting the principle of and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). This marked the onset of the COP process as an iterative forum for forging protocols and decisions, typically held annually with a rotating presidency among UN regional groups to oversee subsidiary bodies and advance agenda items through consensus-based negotiations. The process evolved through the late 1990s toward binding obligations, culminating at COP 3 in Kyoto, Japan, from December 1 to 11, 1997, where the was adopted, committing Annex I parties to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets averaging 5.2% below 1990 levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012), with mechanisms like , joint implementation, and the Clean Development Mechanism to facilitate compliance. Subsequent COPs, such as COP 6 in (2000, partially resuming in 2001) and COP 7 in Marrakech (2001), finalized operational rules via the Marrakech Accords, enabling the Protocol's entry into force on February 16, 2005, after Russia's met the threshold. However, challenges emerged, including the U.S. withdrawal in 2001 and exemptions for developing countries, limiting coverage to about 15% of global emissions; global emissions nonetheless rose by approximately 60% from 1990 to 2019, underscoring the protocol's constrained causal impact amid economic growth in non-Annex I nations. By the mid-2000s, the COP process grappled with Kyoto's impending expiration and stalled post-2012 talks, as seen in the limited Amendment at COP 18 (2012) extending commitments to 2020 but ratified by few parties. COP 15 in (2009) faltered without a new binding , yielding only a non-binding accord, prompting a pivot at COP 17 in (2011) to launch the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, aiming for a universal by 2015 applicable to all parties under CBDR-RC. This culminated at COP 21 in from November 30 to December 12, 2015, adopting the , which shifted from top-down mandates to bottom-up nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from all parties, with five-year ratcheting for ambition, a collective goal to limit warming to well below 2°C (pursuing 1.5°C), and provisions for transparency, adaptation, and finance flows toward $100 billion annually from developed to developing countries. Post-Paris, the COP evolved into an implementation-oriented forum, with COP 24 in (2018) finalizing the rulebook for NDC reporting and compliance, while emphasizing stocktakes to assess progress against long-term goals. By 2021, the process had incorporated hybrid elements like high-level segments for pledges and side events for non-state actors, but retained consensus requirements often diluting outcomes; emissions continued upward trajectories, with 2020 levels rebounding post-COVID to near-record highs, highlighting reliance on national execution over supranational enforcement. This trajectory positioned COP 26 as a critical checkpoint for NDC enhancements and Paris "rulebook" refinements, amid persistent North-South divides on finance and responsibility.

Specific Lead-Up and Postponement

The United Kingdom was selected to host the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow, Scotland, with the announcement made on August 9, 2019, following an internal bidding process among UK cities. International support for the UK's bid was formalized on September 10, 2019, during a meeting of UNFCCC parties, confirming Glasgow's Scottish Event Campus (SEC) as the venue and establishing a partnership with Italy for preparatory events. The conference was initially scheduled for November 9–20, 2020, aligning with the standard annual COP timeline post-COP25 in Madrid. On April 2, 2020, the UNFCCC COP Bureau, in consultation with the UK presidency and Italy, decided to postpone COP26 indefinitely due to the escalating , prioritizing participant safety amid global travel restrictions and health risks. This decision was driven by assessments that in-person attendance by thousands of delegates from nearly 200 countries would be infeasible without compromising , as evidenced by widespread lockdowns and closures by early 2020. The postponement extended the gap between COP25 and COP26 to nearly two years, the longest in the UNFCCC process, allowing additional time for nations to refine nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the but prompting criticisms that it could hinder momentum for post-pandemic economic recovery aligned with emission reductions. Following the postponement, the UK government intensified preparations, appointing as COP26 President-Designate on February 5, 2020, to lead negotiations and outreach. Key lead-up activities included virtual intersessional meetings throughout 2020 and early 2021 to advance agenda items like the Paris Rulebook's Article 6 on carbon markets, alongside bilateral to secure commitments on and . By May 28, 2020, the COP Bureau confirmed rescheduled dates of November 1–12, 2021, later adjusted to October 31–November 12 to accommodate world leaders' summit on the opening days. Preparatory events, such as the Youth Pre-COP in in August 2021 and technical consultations, focused on building consensus amid ongoing uncertainties, with the UK emphasizing hybrid formats for broader participation.

Presidency and Sponsorship

The presidency of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) was held by the United Kingdom, as the host nation, with Alok Sharma serving as the conference president. Sharma was appointed to this full-time role on January 8, 2021, after previously holding the position of UK Secretary of State for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy. In this capacity, he oversaw preparatory diplomacy, including visits to over 30 countries to build consensus on key negotiation outcomes. The event was organized under the presidency in partnership with , following a joint hosting bid secured in 2019. This collaboration stemmed from Italy's role in supporting the UK's bid and hosting preparatory events, with the formal launch attended by Prime Minister and then-Italian Prime Minister on December 2, 2019. The government bore primary responsibility for hosting in , , from October 31 to November 12, 2021, while Italy contributed to thematic leadership, particularly on finance and adaptation. Sponsorship for COP26 included financial and logistical support from the UK government, estimated to cover operational costs including security expenditures up to £250 million. Corporate sponsorships from entities such as and other major firms supplemented these funds, providing advertising opportunities and input into event programming in exchange for contributions that helped defray expenses. These arrangements drew scrutiny for potential influence on summit priorities, though official oversight remained with the UNFCCC and host presidency.

Event Organization and Participation

Venue and Logistics

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) took place at the Scottish Event Campus (SEC) in , , from 31 October to 12 November. The SEC, comprising halls 3, 4, and 5, served as the primary venue for the , where official UNFCCC negotiations, plenaries, and subsidiary body meetings occurred. The adjacent , focused on public engagement, exhibitions, and side events, was hosted at the . To expand capacity for the expected 30,000 delegates, approximately 37,500 square meters of temporary structures were constructed around the SEC. For the conference duration, the venue was designated as territory under a host country agreement with the government. Logistics included enhanced transportation provisions, with participants receiving free public transport passes valid across Scotland for travel between accommodations and the venue. Official guides detailed options such as buses, trains, routes, and walking paths, with maps provided to navigate Glasgow's . Security measures involved restricted access zones, with the requiring accreditation and biometric checks, while the remained open to registered public visitors. Accommodation demands strained Glasgow's capacity, prompting the use of two cruise ships moored on the River Clyde to house up to 1,000 attendees each, including security personnel. Community initiatives, such as the COP26 Network, offered affordable stays through local hosts, though activists reported a waiting list of nearly 2,000 for low-cost options, criticizing the arrangements as exclusionary for delegates from developing nations.

Attendance and Key Participants

Over 40,000 individuals registered for COP26, representing nearly 200 countries and making it the largest UNFCCC to date, with approximately 38,000 attending in person. Participants included 22,274 delegates from UNFCCC parties, 14,729 observers (such as representatives from NGOs, businesses, and indigenous groups), over 2,400 media personnel, and 1,239 UNFCCC Secretariat staff. The conference was presided over by , the United Kingdom's COP26 President and Secretary of State for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, who coordinated negotiations and facilitated high-level engagements. The opening World Leaders Summit on 1–2 November drew more than 120 heads of state and government, focusing on pledges for emissions reductions and climate finance. Prominent attendees encompassed major emitters and influential figures, such as President , who addressed the summit and announced enhanced climate commitments; Indian Prime Minister ; Brazilian President ; and Chinese Vice Premier . Other key participants included Prime Minister , who hosted the event; United Nations Secretary-General ; European Commission President ; and Indonesian President . Special envoys like Climate Envoy also played active roles in side events and bilateral discussions.

Absent or Limited Participants

Several heads of state from major greenhouse gas-emitting nations did not attend COP26 in person. Chinese President , whose country accounted for approximately 30% of global CO2 emissions in 2020, submitted a written statement rather than appearing virtually or physically, with Chinese officials citing stringent domestic protocols as the primary barrier to travel. Russian President , representing the world's fourth-largest emitter and a leading exporter of fossil fuels, also declined to attend, opting for a pre-recorded video address on November 2 that highlighted Russia's forest resources as a while expressing reservations about international pressure on emissions reductions. Brazilian President , whose nation faced scrutiny over Amazon deforestation rates exceeding 11,000 square kilometers annually in the lead-up to the summit, sent Vice President in his stead. Turkish President similarly absented himself, delegating representation to lower-level officials amid Turkey's reliance on for over 40% of its electricity generation. Participation from vulnerable and (LDCs) was curtailed by logistical and health barriers. , a Pacific nation at high risk from sea-level rise, registered no delegates due to travel restrictions and costs. Only four leaders from Pacific island states—Fiji, , , and Palu—attended in person, as many others faced UK's quarantine mandates for arrivals from red-listed countries, alongside visa delays and high accommodation expenses that disadvantaged smaller delegations. LDC representatives warned prior to the event that up to 20 such nations could see severely limited attendance, potentially undermining voices from those most impacted by climate variability despite their minimal historical emissions. These constraints, imposed amid the ongoing , contrasted with the over 120 and 40,000 total participants present, raising questions about equitable access in negotiations.

Health Protocols Amid COVID-19

Organizers implemented protocols to facilitate in-person attendance at COP26 while addressing risks, including encouragement, mandatory testing, masking, and distancing requirements. These measures were outlined in the UNFCCC COP26 , which mandated participant adherence to daily self-testing, hygiene practices, and symptom reporting, with violations potentially resulting in removal from the venue or legal action. Vaccination was strongly recommended but not required for entry to the , the secure conference area; full vaccination status was defined as 14 days after completing a primary course of any recognized , with participants declaring status via the UNFCCC portal. For certain Scottish venues hosting indoor events with over 500 attendees, proof of vaccination via was mandatory. Delegates from red-list countries faced UK-managed upon arrival: 5 days for vaccinated individuals or 10 days for unvaccinated, with funding provided for delegates from the Global South. Pre-departure requirements included a negative PCR or test within 72 hours and completion of a passenger locator form. Testing protocols emphasized frequent screening: participants underwent a PCR test within 48 hours of arrival in the , followed by daily lateral flow device (LFD) self-tests for access, with negative results self-reported. A positive LFD necessitated immediate isolation and a confirmatory PCR test; confirmed positives required 10-day under the 's Test, Trace, and Isolate program. The government supplied tests to registered participants. On-site, masks were mandatory indoors in the except when eating, drinking, speaking, or under medical exemption, alongside a minimum 1-meter physical distancing rule. Enhanced cleaning regimens, hand stations, and ventilation improvements supported these measures, with public transport in requiring face coverings. No overarching travel restrictions applied to COP26 participants beyond local rules, prioritizing inclusivity for global delegates.

Core Negotiation Topics

Nationally Determined Contributions and Ratchet Mechanism

Under the , nationally determined contributions (NDCs) represent each party's self-determined targets for reducing and enhancing , with a requirement to communicate successive NDCs every five years that reflect progressively higher ambition, known as the ratchet mechanism. At COP26, held from October 31 to November 13, 2021, negotiations emphasized accelerating this mechanism to close the emissions gap, as initial NDCs from 2015 were projected to result in approximately 2.7°C of warming by 2100 if fully implemented. Ahead of the conference, parties were urged to submit updated NDCs incorporating stronger 2030 targets aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. By October 2021, 165 updated or new NDCs were available from 192 parties, covering emissions projections that collectively anticipated a 13.7% increase in global by 2030 relative to 2010 levels, far exceeding the reductions needed for Paris goals. Approximately 70% of parties, accounting for 57% of global emissions, had submitted new or updated NDCs by late 2021, though major emitters like and provided limited enhancements to prior commitments. The , adopted on November 13, 2021, reinforced the ratchet mechanism by requesting all parties to revisit and strengthen their 2030 NDC targets by the end of 2022, as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals, and to accelerate transitions away from fossil fuels toward net-zero emissions by mid-century. This provision aimed to operationalize annual reporting on NDC progress and synthesis reports to inform future updates, though implementation has been uneven, with post-COP26 analyses indicating stalled ambition in many submissions. By January 2022, 156 countries had formally submitted updated NDCs under the framework, yet aggregate projections still pointed to insufficient cuts for 1.5°C compatibility without further ratcheting. Critics, including analyses from independent trackers, noted that the pact's language on NDCs avoided binding enforcement, relying instead on voluntary escalation, which has historically yielded modest ambition gains despite UNFCCC facilitation. Empirical assessments post-COP26 confirmed that even optimistic implementation of announced updates would limit warming to around 2.4°C, underscoring the ratchet's dependence on geopolitical and economic incentives rather than procedural mandates alone.

Deforestation and Land Use Pledges

At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), leaders from 141 countries—accounting for over 90% of the world's forests—signed the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use on November 2, 2021, pledging to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030. The declaration, hosted by the UK presidency, committed signatories to accelerate actions for conserving and restoring forests and other terrestrial ecosystems to achieve balance between anthropogenic and removals by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature goal. Key signatories included , , , , , the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the , representing major tropical and boreal forest holders. The pledge emphasized integrated approaches to forests and , including sustainable management, , and addressing drivers of degradation such as and , while supporting ' roles in . To facilitate implementation, the declaration called for enhanced international cooperation, national strategies, and transparent reporting on progress. Complementing this, twelve donor countries—including the , , and EU members—announced the COP26 Global Forest Finance Pledge, committing $12 billion in public funds from 2021 to 2025 for forest-related climate and , with a focus on results-based payments and support for high-integrity carbon markets. Separate initiatives under the forests and land use agenda included commitments from over 30 financial institutions to align $8.7 billion in investments with deforestation-free supply chains and a pledge by 14 philanthropies to deploy $17.5 billion by 2030 for , though these were not formal government pledges. The declarations built on prior efforts like the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests but incorporated stronger emphasis on reversal and restoration metrics.

Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Discussions

Discussions on phasing out marked a historic shift at COP26, as the conference text explicitly referenced them for the first time in UNFCCC history, urging parties to accelerate efforts toward the phase-down of unabated power and the phase-out of inefficient in the . This provision emerged from intense negotiations, where initial drafts proposed a stronger "phase-out" of , reflecting pressure from vulnerable nations and small island states emphasizing the need to curb emissions from , which account for over 75% of global greenhouse gases. Resistance primarily came from major coal-reliant developing economies, including and , which argued that abrupt phase-outs would hinder and energy access for billions, given coal's role in providing affordable baseload power in regions lacking alternatives. On November 13, 2021, during the final plenary, India's environment minister objected to the "phase-out" language, proposing a switch to "phase-down" to preserve flexibility for transitional technologies like carbon capture, a change supported by and others, leading to its adoption despite objections. COP26 President described the amendment as a "treacherous" last-minute intervention that kept the deal alive but left him "deeply frustrated," urging and to justify their stance publicly. Parallel side pledges aimed to bolster commitments outside the main text: a Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement signed by 46 countries, including the , Poland, and , pledged to deliver zero power generation by around 2030 in nations and 2040 in non-, while 29 institutions committed to ending finance by 2021 for banks and 2025 for others. However, holdouts like , , , and —responsible for over 80% of global power capacity—did not endorse the full phase-out, underscoring divisions between developed nations pushing rapid decarbonization and emerging economies prioritizing sovereignty over energy choices. The presence of at least 503 industry representatives, outnumbering delegates from the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations combined, fueled criticism that influenced the diluted outcome. The final language's focus on "unabated" implicitly allowed continued use with abatement technologies, though empirical data shows such capture rates remain below 10% globally due to high costs and technical barriers, limiting its near-term feasibility. Proponents viewed the pact as a fragile but unprecedented signal for market signals against investments, yet skeptics noted it lacked enforceable timelines or penalties, relying on voluntary national actions amid ongoing subsidies exceeding $5 trillion annually.

Methane Emission Reductions

At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), the and launched the Global Methane Pledge on November 2, aiming to reduce global anthropogenic by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030 through voluntary national actions. Signatories committed to including methane reduction targets in their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the and to developing national plans with specific timelines, metrics, and transparent reporting. The initiative targeted key sectors such as fossil fuels, , and , where —responsible for about 30% of global warming since the —offers cost-effective abatement opportunities, with many measures achievable at low or negative cost. By the close of COP26, over 100 countries had joined, representing approximately 70% of the global economy and nearly 40-45% of human-caused , including major emitters like , , and the but excluding , , and , which together account for a significant share of global output from , , and . The pledge emphasized rapid implementation, with participants agreeing to prioritize actions like leak detection in oil and gas infrastructure and improved manure management, potentially avoiding 0.2-0.3°C of warming by 2045 if fully realized. However, its non-binding nature and lack of enforcement mechanisms drew criticism from analysts, who noted that success depends on alignment rather than international mandates. Complementing the pledge, a parallel coalition of 27 countries and organizations, including the U.S. and , committed to near-term abatement in the oil and gas sector, targeting a 15% reduction from 2020 levels by 2025 via technologies like satellite monitoring and flaring elimination. These efforts built on pre-COP26 momentum, such as the Oil and Gas Partnership 2.0, but faced challenges from non-participation by top producers like and . Overall, the initiatives at COP26 highlighted 's role as a short-lived amenable to quicker reductions than CO2, though verifiable progress requires enhanced , reporting, and verification frameworks beyond self-reported .

Carbon Markets and Article 6 Rules

Article 6 of the provides a framework for international cooperation on mitigation outcomes, including through carbon markets, to allow countries to meet their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) more cost-effectively while promoting . Negotiations to implement Article 6 had stalled since COP24 in , with key disputes over avoiding double counting of emission reductions, ensuring environmental integrity, and applying a share of proceeds () for adaptation finance in developing countries. At COP26 in from October 31 to November 13, 2021, parties adopted significant guidance under Articles 6.2, 6.4, and 6.8, completing much of the rulebook on cooperative approaches, though some flexibilities in bilateral arrangements raised concerns about potential loopholes. Under Article 6.2, parties agreed on rules for cooperative approaches involving the transfer of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), such as emission reductions from bilateral or linked systems. These rules mandate corresponding adjustments in national inventories to prevent double counting, where a seller subtracts transferred reductions from its own NDC accounting and the buyer adds them. Public registries on the UNFCCC require reporting of ITMO details for transparency, but no mandatory SOP was imposed on 6.2 transactions, allowing parties to negotiate this bilaterally—a concession pushed by countries like , which argued it could hinder market participation. This omission drew criticism from environmental advocates, who warned it could enable low-integrity deals without contributing to adaptation funds, potentially undermining the mechanism's credibility. Article 6.4 established a centralized UNFCCC-supervised mechanism to replace the Kyoto Protocol's (CDM), authorizing the issuance of Article 6.4 Emission Reductions (A6.4ERs) for verified mitigation activities like or . Rules adopted at COP26 include a 5% SOP levy on issued credits directed to the Adaptation Fund for vulnerable nations, plus a 2% fee for administrative costs, ensuring a portion of market proceeds supports adaptation. Transition provisions allow post-2020 CDM projects to migrate to the new mechanism after review for additionality and integrity, but pre-2020 Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) were barred from carry-over to prevent inflating baselines with historically questionable credits. A supervisory body was tasked with developing further methodologies by early 2022, aiming to incentivize while maintaining high standards. Article 6.8 addresses non-market approaches, such as joint policies for or , without involving credit trading. COP26 launched a work program and committee to elaborate these by mid-2022, focusing on mitigation, adaptation, and poverty alleviation without financial transfers. Overall, the COP26 outcomes on Article 6 were hailed by supporters like the for enabling robust international carbon markets that could mobilize trillions in finance, but skeptics, including some developing countries and NGOs, highlighted unresolved technical details on permanence, additionality testing, and bilateral oversight as risks for greenwashing. Subsequent Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) sessions in 2022 addressed refinements, but core flexibilities persisted.

Climate Finance Commitments

At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, developed countries reaffirmed their commitment to the longstanding pledge of mobilizing $100 billion annually in for developing nations, originally set for achievement by 2020 under the 2009 and formalized in subsequent UNFCCC decisions. However, the target had not been met by the deadline, with OECD data indicating flows reached approximately $83.3 billion in 2020, short of the goal due in part to reliance on loans rather than grants and inconsistent reporting methodologies. The urged continuation of this goal beyond 2025 while calling for a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on finance to be negotiated prior to its expiration, emphasizing mobilization from all sources including public, private, and multilateral channels to exceed $100 billion annually. A key advancement was the agreement to at least double from approximately $20 billion in levels to $40 billion per year by 2025, targeting support for resilience-building in vulnerable developing countries against climate impacts such as and sea-level rise. This pledge, described as unprecedented by UNEP, aimed to address the historical underfunding of relative to efforts, though it represented only a fraction of estimated annual needs exceeding $70 billion for developing countries. The conference also initiated a work programme on the global goal for and enhanced transparency in reporting, requiring biennial submissions from developed nations on progress toward commitments. Individual pledges bolstered these efforts, including the ' announcement of $11.4 billion annually by 2024 for international and the European Union's commitment to provide over €20 billion yearly from 2021 onward. Despite these steps, developing countries expressed skepticism over enforceability and the predominance of concessional loans over grants, highlighting persistent gaps in grant-based, predictable funding as documented in pre-COP26 analyses. The outcomes deferred a definitive NCQG to future talks, with the work programme spanning 2022–2024 to facilitate negotiations between developed and developing parties.

Adaptation, Loss, and Damage Mechanisms

At COP26, parties to the UNFCCC agreed to urge developed countries to at least double their collective provision of finance from 2019 levels by 2025, aiming toward a balanced allocation of between and efforts, with a target of approximately 50 percent directed to in vulnerable developing nations. This commitment built on prior pledges under the , emphasizing the need to scale up support for national plans (NAPs) through enhanced , technology transfer, and capacity-building. Specific pledges announced included USD 350 million to the Adaptation Fund and USD 600 million to the Fund (LDCF) to bolster resilience in low-income states. Mechanisms for were advanced through of a two-year work programme under the to collect and analyze information on adaptation needs, priorities, and gaps, informing future global goals on adaptation set for review at subsequent COPs. Additionally, rules finalized for carbon markets under Article 6 of the mandated a 5 percent share of proceeds from certain emission reduction activities to be directed to the Adaptation Fund, providing a dedicated revenue stream estimated to generate hundreds of millions annually once operational. The UN4NAPs partnership was highlighted as a collaborative framework to accelerate NAP development and implementation in developing countries. On loss and damage, the conference did not establish a new dedicated financial facility despite demands from vulnerable island states and , opting instead to launch the Glasgow Dialogue—a three-year consultative process involving parties, the Santiago Network, and relevant institutions to discuss arrangements for funding averting, minimizing, and addressing loss and damage associated with climate impacts. The Pact reiterated the urgency of scaling up action and support, including finance, for loss and damage, urging developed countries and international institutions to provide enhanced assistance to affected developing nations. Progress was made on the Santiago Network under the Warsaw International Mechanism, with agreements on its functions and institutional arrangements to catalyze technical assistance for risk reduction and recovery from slow-onset and extreme events. These steps were framed as building on existing frameworks but fell short of creating binding compensation mechanisms, with the Dialogue tasked to report progress at COP28 without predefined outcomes.

Formal Outcomes and Declarations

Glasgow Climate Pact Details

The Glasgow Climate Pact was adopted on November 13, 2021, by the 197 parties to the UNFCCC at the conclusion of COP26, marking the first explicit reference to fossil fuels in a COP decision text. The pact urges all parties to revisit and strengthen their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by the end of 2022, aligning them with the Paris Agreement's goals of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while recognizing the significant emissions gap that persists. It requests parties to accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal power generation and the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, a provision that faced last-minute amendments from India, China, and other major coal-using nations, shifting from an initial "phase-out" language to the weaker "phase-down" to secure consensus. On mitigation, the pact emphasizes closing the gap between current pledges and pathways compatible with 1.5°C, calling for accelerated action in the through updated NDCs every five years and linking them to long-term low-emission strategies. It finalizes rules under Article 6 of the , enabling international carbon markets, including mechanisms for emission reductions transfers and , with provisions to avoid double-counting and ensure environmental integrity via corresponding adjustments. For , parties are invited to submit updated nationally determined contributions on by early 2025, and the pact calls for doubling international finance to developing countries by 2025 relative to 2019 levels, while urging developed nations to fulfill the $100 billion annual commitment retroactively from 2022 onward. Regarding finance and support, the pact acknowledges shortfalls in meeting prior commitments and establishes a work program to define a new collective quantified goal post-2025, prioritizing grants over loans for vulnerable nations. On loss and damage, it launches the Dialogue to discuss arrangements for funding irreversible climate impacts, though it stops short of establishing a dedicated facility, deferring deeper resolution to future COPs—a concession to opposition from developed countries like the . The text also advances transparency by adopting enhanced reporting modalities, including biennial transparency reports with standardized tables for tracking progress on , , and support provided or received. Despite broad adoption, the pact's language reflects compromises that dilute ambition, such as the fossil fuel provisions' focus on "unabated" coal (implying continued use with carbon capture, which lacks scalability) and subsidies deemed inefficient, without binding timelines or enforcement mechanisms. It reaffirms the Paris Agreement's structure but defers major breakthroughs on finance and equity, with developing countries expressing dissatisfaction over unmet promises, as evidenced by near-walkouts during negotiations. The document totals around 20 operative paragraphs, covering cooperation on non-market approaches and transparency enhancements, positioning the 2020s as a "decade of action" without novel legal obligations.

Side Pledges and Coalitions

Numerous voluntary side pledges and coalitions were announced at COP26, involving governments, entities, and financial institutions to advance objectives beyond the formal UNFCCC negotiations. These initiatives focused on mobilizing resources, fostering , and committing to sector-specific transitions, though they remained non-binding and subject to varying levels of . The Financial Alliance for Net Zero (), spearheaded by UN Special Envoy and the COP26 presidency, emerged as a key coalition uniting banks, insurers, and asset managers. By , , members represented over $130 trillion in assets committed to aligning investments with net-zero emissions by 2050, aiming to scale private capital for the . The First Movers Coalition, launched by U.S. President on November 4, 2021, partnered public and private sectors to stimulate demand for emerging clean technologies in challenging sectors like , , shipping, and . Founding members, including over 25 companies, pledged to procure low-carbon materials and fuels, with the initiative seeking to de-risk investments and accelerate . Additional coalitions included the Building to COP26 effort, which urged halving emissions from new building projects by 2030 and reaching net-zero life-cycle emissions for all buildings by no later than 2050, backed by governments and industry groups. In , ministers from the and announced a declaration on November 2021 to transition toward 100% sustainable aviation fuels, with signatories committing to increase production and uptake.

Net-Zero Target Announcements

During the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), several countries announced new long-term net-zero greenhouse gas emissions targets, emphasizing pathways to balance emissions with removals, though timelines varied significantly by development status. These pledges built on prior commitments but highlighted divergences, with developing economies often citing extended horizons to accommodate growth needs and historical emission disparities. By the conference's close, such announcements contributed to a tally of approximately 74 nations endorsing net-zero goals by mid-century or later, though many lacked interim milestones or verifiable strategies at the time. India's announcement stood out as a pivotal moment on November 1, 2021, when Prime Minister outlined a "" package during the World Leaders Summit, including a commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070—the country's first formal long-term target. This pledge accompanied shorter-term goals: achieving 500 gigawatts of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030, sourcing 50% of energy from renewables, reducing total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes from 2030 levels, and cutting economy-wide carbon intensity by 45% over 2005 levels by 2030. India's target, extending two decades beyond the 2050 benchmark urged by developed nations, reflected its status as a late industrializer with per capita emissions far below global averages (around 1.9 tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2020 versus the world's 4.7 tonnes). Nigeria followed with a net-zero pledge by 2060, articulated by President at COP26, underscoring reliance on as a transitional amid the country's oil-dependent and access challenges. This commitment aligned with Nigeria's updated (NDC), targeting a 47% unconditional reduction in emissions intensity by 2030, but emphasized gas infrastructure to bridge gaps in electricity provision, where over 80 million lacked reliable access pre-conference. The pledge drew attention for balancing climate goals with development imperatives in sub-Saharan Africa's largest and oil producer. Vietnam also advanced its position by committing to net-zero by 2050 during the COP26 World Leaders Summit, elevating prior ambitions tied to its rapid economic expansion and coal-heavy energy mix (responsible for about 50% of electricity in 2021). This target, covering a nation with emissions tripling since 2010 due to industrialization, included plans for offshore wind and renewables scaling, though implementation hinged on international finance for just transitions. Such announcements from emerging emitters like illustrated efforts to align with global norms while seeking technology transfers and funding, as stipulated under the Paris Agreement's equity principles.

Implementation and Long-Term Impact

Tracking Pledge Fulfillment as of 2025

As of October 2025, assessments of COP26 pledges reveal widespread shortfalls in implementation, with global greenhouse gas emissions projected to continue rising under current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), undermining the conference's commitments to limit warming to 1.5°C. The UNFCCC's 2023 NDC synthesis report indicated that even full implementation of submitted NDCs would result in emissions of approximately 53.2 GtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding land use), far exceeding pathways aligned with Paris Agreement goals, a gap persisting into 2025 updates from trackers like Climate Action Tracker. Independent evaluations, such as those from the World Resources Institute, highlight that while some pledges garnered initial signatories, verifiable reductions in emissions drivers like deforestation and fossil fuels remain elusive, often due to weak enforcement mechanisms and competing economic priorities. The Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use, endorsed by over 140 countries aiming to halt and reverse by 2030, has seen minimal fulfillment. The 2025 Forest Declaration Assessment reports that tropical primary forest loss accelerated post-2021, with 2023-2024 rates exceeding pre-COP26 levels in key signatory nations like and , driven by agricultural expansion and weak domestic policies; only a fraction of pledged monitoring systems have been deployed effectively. Related initiatives, such as the COP26 Forest Tenure Pledge to secure , met its funding target of $20 million by October 2025 but yielded limited on-ground tenure reforms, as evidenced by ongoing disputes in pledged countries. Under the Global Methane Pledge, joined by over 150 parties targeting a 30% reduction from 2020 levels by 2030, progress lags significantly. The International Energy Agency's 2025 Global Methane Tracker notes that while pledges cover 80% of global oil and gas production, actual abatement measures—such as technologies—remain inconsistently applied, with reported emissions from super-emitters rising slightly in 2024; UNEP's 2025 International Methane Emissions Observatory update confirms data gaps hinder accountability, projecting shortfalls of 10-15% against interim targets. The Glasgow Climate Pact's call for a phase-down of unabated power has not translated into substantial global reductions. As of 2023, 84 countries committed to or restrictions on new plants, but IEA data through 2025 shows coal capacity expansions in offsetting retirements elsewhere, with unabated generation increasing 2-3% annually in major producers like and ; only European nations have accelerated closures, often tied to rather than COP26-specific pledges. Climate finance commitments, including the reiterated $100 billion annual target from developed nations to 2025, faced delays but were retroactively met for 2022 per accounting ($115.9 billion mobilized, including private flows). However, critiques from developing countries and analyses highlight that 2023-2025 disbursements remain grant-short and skewed toward loans, with funding comprising under 25% despite COP26 emphasis; a new post-2025 goal negotiation is underway, but empirical shortfalls eroded trust, as voiced in UNFCCC reviews.
Pledge CategoryKey COP26 Commitment2025 Status SummaryProjected 2030 Impact
Deforestation HaltReverse by 2030 (140+ countries)Accelerated losses; monitoring incompleteOff-track; net emissions from forests rising
Methane Reduction30% cut by 2030 (150+ parties)Weak implementation; emissions stable-high10-15% shortfall likely
Coal Phase-DownUnabated power reductionCapacity growth in ; limited retirementsInsufficient for 1.5°C alignment
Annual Finance$100B to developing nationsMet 2022 retroactively; grants lowNew goal needed; trust deficit persists

Global Emissions Trajectories Post-2021

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rebounded sharply in 2021 following the , increasing by approximately 4.9% to 36.4 gigatonnes (GtCO₂), driven primarily by economic recovery in major emitters like and . This uptick occurred despite COP26 commitments under the , which urged emissions to peak before 2030 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels to align with 1.5°C warming limits. However, empirical data indicate no immediate downward inflection, with emissions continuing to climb amid insufficient policy implementation and reliance on fossil fuels for . In 2022 and 2023, global CO₂ emissions from energy combustion reached successive record highs, exceeding 37 GtCO₂ annually, fueled by post-pandemic industrial demand and expanded and use in . Total , including non-CO₂ gases, rose to around 53 GtCO₂-equivalent by 2023, reflecting persistent growth in sectors like power generation (31% of emissions) and transportation (15%). Developing economies accounted for most of the increase, with China's emissions alone surpassing the combined output of all nations, underscoring challenges in decoupling economic growth from dependency without viable low-carbon alternatives scaling globally. Speculation about an emissions peak in 2023, based on preliminary clean deployment data, proved premature as 2024 revisions confirmed ongoing rises. By 2024, and cement CO₂ emissions hit 37.4 GtCO₂, a 0.8% increase from 2023, while total energy-related CO₂ reached 37.8 GtCO₂, the highest on record. Broader GHG emissions grew 1.3% to 53.2 GtCO₂eq, with contributing the largest share of the increment (around 180 MtCO₂) due to its role in amid variable renewables. CO₂ emissions have plateaued globally, but and rising in emerging markets sustain total upward pressure, projecting no near-term peak without accelerated technological breakthroughs or enforced reductions. Current trajectories imply a failure to meet goals, as emissions must fall immediately to limit warming to 1.5°C, yet IEA and analyses show alignment instead with 2.4–2.6°C outcomes under existing policies.

Economic Costs and Unintended Consequences

The pledges emerging from COP26, including reinforced net-zero targets by over 90 countries and commitments to phase down coal and fossil fuel subsidies under the Glasgow Climate Pact, have been associated with significant projected economic costs for global decarbonization efforts. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal emphasized at the conference, is estimated to require an additional $3.5 trillion in annual investments worldwide, encompassing shifts in energy, materials, and food systems. For developing economies, infrastructure-related transitions aligned with COP26 outcomes could demand up to 4.5% of GDP annually, straining fiscal resources amid competing development priorities. Least developed countries' updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in response to COP26 ambitions are projected to cost $93.7 billion per year, with adaptation needs in vulnerable nations adding further billions without commensurate fulfillment of the $100 billion annual climate finance pledge from developed countries, which fell $17 billion short as of 2020. The forest agreement, endorsed by over 140 countries at COP26 to halt and reverse by 2030, carries implementation costs estimated at a minimum of $11-52 billion through 2030, escalating to $343-694 billion thereafter, primarily borne by tropical nations through , monitoring, and alternative livelihoods programs. These expenditures, coupled with side pledges like the $130 by financial institutions for sustainable investments, have redirected capital flows but often at the expense of short-term in fossil-dependent sectors. Unintended consequences include heightened energy price volatility following COP26's fossil fuel phase-down language, which amplified investor reticence toward new unabated and gas projects amid post-pandemic demand recovery, contributing to reaching record highs in 2021-2022 and exacerbating Europe's . This underinvestment risked stranding $220 billion in global assets, per assessments of plants inconsistent with 1.5°C pathways, while paradoxically, fossil fuel subsidies nearly doubled in 2021 and exceeded $1 trillion in investments by 2022, undermining phase-out efficacy and inflating transition expenses. In developing countries, COP26's acceleration of net-zero timelines has been critiqued for imposing premature constraints on fossil fuel use essential for industrialization and , potentially locking in higher long-term costs via reliance on imported renewables dominated by supply chains from , without adequate compensatory finance. By 2025, stalled progress on 2030 NDC updates post-Glasgow has meant emissions trajectories remain misaligned with conference goals, yet policy signals from COP26 have spurred regulatory costs—such as carbon pricing and subsidy reforms—that disproportionately burden energy-importing economies without yielding proportional global emission cuts.

Technological and Policy Shifts Attributed to COP26

The , adopted at COP26 on November 13, 2021, marked the first explicit multilateral call for parties to "phase down unabated power" and "phase out inefficient ," shifting policy rhetoric from prior COPs that avoided naming specific fuels. This language was attributed to pressure from major emitters like and , who resisted a full "phase out," yet it influenced subsequent national policies, such as the European Union's 2022 plan to reduce dependencies, though empirical data shows global capacity continued expanding post-2021, with approving over 100 gigawatts of new by 2023. Side pledges at COP26 spurred targeted policy mechanisms, including the Global Methane Pledge joined by over 100 countries committing to a 30% reduction by 2030, prompting regulatory actions like the ' 2024 methane emissions fee on oil and gas operators exceeding thresholds. Similarly, the COP26 Forest Deal, signed by 141 nations to halt by 2030, led to policy integrations such as Brazil's 2022 reinforcement of Amazon enforcement laws, but satellite data indicated a 2022 uptick in loss, undermining causal claims of sustained shifts. The Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement, endorsed by over 40 countries, committed to ending new unabated coal financing overseas, influencing institutions like the World Bank to restrict such funding from 2022 onward. On technology, the Breakthrough Agenda, launched November 2, 2021, by leaders including the , , and , aimed to accelerate deployment of clean technologies in power, transport, steel, , and through shared roadmaps and private investment mobilization, targeting near-zero emissions in these sectors by 2030. This was credited with boosting commitments like the $12 billion public and $7 billion private pledges for forest-related tech innovations, though assessments as of 2025 highlight uneven progress, with scaling limited by high costs and infrastructure gaps. COP26 also emphasized nuclear and digital technologies for , with the IAEA showcasing nuclear's role in low-carbon , correlating with post-2021 pivots like the US Inflation Reduction Act's nuclear incentives, yet global renewable capacity growth from 2021-2024 aligned more with pre-existing trends than discrete COP26 causation. Overall, while attributed shifts include enhanced focus on carbon capture for "unabated" fossil use and AI/blockchain for emissions tracking, empirical fulfillment remains partial, with 2025 analyses noting insufficient deployment amid ongoing fossil investments.

Reception Across Perspectives

Endorsements from Pro-Climate Advocates

, executive director of International, endorsed the Glasgow Climate Pact's explicit reference to phase-down, stating that despite a last-minute change from "phase out" to "phase down," the signal from COP26 indicated "the era of is ending" and represented a "bad outcome" for coal executives. She highlighted this as a breakthrough in acknowledging fossil fuels' role in emissions, though she urged faster implementation to align with scientific imperatives for limiting warming to 1.5°C. Tina Stee, climate envoy for the —a nation highly vulnerable to sea-level rise—described elements of the Package as a "lifeline" for her country, emphasizing the need not to discount "crucial wins" such as commitments to accelerate adaptation finance and revisit nationally determined contributions by the end of 2022. The similarly noted "important progress" at COP26, including pledges to curb (responsible for about 30% of recent warming), halt and reverse forest loss by 2030, and align $130 trillion in financial assets toward net-zero by 2050, viewing these as foundational steps for sectoral transformations despite gaps in ambition. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore praised the pact for advancing toward the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal through first-ever language on phasing down coal power and fossil fuel subsidies, as well as requirements for nations to update net-zero targets by late 2022 and convene in 2023 for enhanced 2030 reductions. Gore framed these as signaling an "end to inaction" on the climate crisis, building on Paris-era momentum, though he stressed accountability for fulfillment given historical shortfalls in emissions pledges. The UNFCCC Secretariat underscored the outcomes as bridging "good intentions and measurable actions" to lower emissions and bolster resilience, marking COP26's role in operationalizing the Paris rulebook.

Critiques from Environmental and Developing Nations' Viewpoints

Environmental activists and organizations condemned COP26 for insufficient ambition and to deliver binding actions commensurate with the climate crisis. On November 5, 2021, addressed protesters in , declaring the summit a "" and a "two-week long celebration of business as usual and blah, blah, blah," asserting it prioritized over substantive change. She criticized the exclusion of frontline communities and youth voices from high-level negotiations, describing COP26 as the "most exclusionary COP ever." Groups like Fridays for Future echoed this, viewing the Glasgow Climate Pact's coal "phase down" language as a enabling continued reliance, undermining the 1.5°C target. Civil society organizations further critiqued the marginalization of non-state actors, with access restrictions limiting input from indigenous and affected communities during key talks on November 8-12, 2021, potentially compromising outcome legitimacy. Environmental NGOs opposed proposals for voluntary carbon markets, arguing they incentivize offsets over emissions reductions, as highlighted in debates at the summit. From developing nations' perspectives, critiques centered on unfulfilled financial commitments and inequitable burdens. Over 100 developing countries, ahead of COP26, demanded fulfillment of the $100 billion annual pledge from developed nations, which remained unmet as of October 2021, with retrospective claims of delivery only in 2022. The (LDC) Group, representing 46 vulnerable states, acknowledged partial progress but emphasized that adaptation needs—estimated at $70 billion annually per the 2020 Adaptation Gap Report—far exceeded provided support. On loss and damage, small island and least developed states, via coalitions like AOSIS and G77+, decried the absence of a dedicated fund, securing only the non-financial Santiago Network for technical assistance on November 13, 2021, which they viewed as inadequate for irreversible impacts like sea-level rise. Larger developing economies like defended the coal "phase down" amendment in the final pact, with Bhupender stating on November 13, 2021, that it reflected developmental priorities, as abrupt phase-out would hinder energy access for 1.3 billion people reliant on affordable coal-powered electricity. and , as major current emitters, argued historical responsibility rests with industrialized nations, justifying resistance to stringent timelines without compensatory finance. This stance drew internal developing world tensions, with vulnerable nations like those in the Pacific criticizing it as prioritizing growth over collective survival. Overall, developing representatives viewed outcomes as perpetuating "climate colonialism," shifting mitigation costs onto them despite minimal historical contributions.

Skeptical Analyses on Efficacy and Alarmism

Despite ambitious pledges at COP26, such as the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement endorsed by over 40 countries and the commitment to phase down unabated power, global CO2 emissions continued to rise, reaching a record 37 gigatons in 2023, up from approximately 36.3 gigatons in 2021. By 2024, energy-related CO2 emissions grew further, driven by increases in (2.5% or 180 million tons) and power sector output, indicating that conference commitments failed to reverse emission trajectories in major emitters like and , which expanded capacity post-2021. Skeptics, including economist Bjorn Lomborg, have argued that COP26's emphasis on non-binding pledges and symbolic targets, such as halting by 2030 (signed by over 100 countries but undermined by Brazil's 22% deforestation surge in 2022), yields negligible impact on emissions while imposing trillions in economic costs for marginal temperature reductions of less than 0.2°C by 2100 under full implementation scenarios. Lomborg contends that such policies divert resources from higher-return adaptations and innovations, as evidenced by the inefficacy of prior UN summits where emissions rose 60% globally since 1990 despite similar rhetoric. On alarmism, critics highlight how COP26 amplified projections of catastrophic warming, yet empirical data shows lower and adaptive human capacity mitigating many forecasted harms, such as reduced cold-related deaths outweighing heat-related increases in recent decades. Lomborg's analysis estimates that even aggressive net-zero pursuits would cost $123 trillion by 2100 for benefits equating to just 3-4% of global GDP in avoided damages, prioritizing elite signaling over cost-effective R&D in green technologies that could drive genuine decarbonization through rather than mandates. Even the incoming IPCC chair in 2023 cautioned against "unjustified climate alarmism," noting its potential to erode when policies underdeliver amid persistent emission growth. These views posit that COP26's framework overemphasizes urgency-driven consensus at the expense of rigorous benefit-cost evaluations, perpetuating a cycle of unmet targets and escalating fiscal burdens on developing economies.

Geopolitical and Economic Counterarguments

Critics of the COP26 outcomes argued that the conference's emphasis on accelerated decarbonization overlooked entrenched geopolitical divisions, particularly between developed nations advocating stringent targets and major emerging economies defending over choices. At the summit's close on November 13, 2021, , backed by , , , and , successfully altered the draft Glasgow Climate Pact's language on from a commitment to "phase out" unabated power to merely "phase down," prioritizing national development needs amid ongoing capacity expansions in . This intervention highlighted the practical limits of multilateral agreements, as —the world's largest emitter, accounting for 30% of global CO2 in 2021—refused binding near-term reductions, committing only to emissions peaking before 2060 while approving over 100 gigawatts of new plants post-COP26. Such resistance underscored skepticism toward the "" principle, with developing nations viewing Western-led pledges as inequitable given their low historical emissions and rates, potentially fostering resentment and weakening global cooperation. Geopolitically, the push for rapid was faulted for heightening energy insecurities, as evidenced by Europe's subsequent vulnerabilities to supply disruptions; policies aligned with COP26 rhetoric contributed to reduced domestic production and increased dependence on imports from and , amplifying risks in an era of great-power rivalry. Analysts contended that ignoring pro-growth energy strategies in favor of symbolic targets diverted attention from pragmatic , allowing authoritarian regimes like to exploit green transitions for relative economic gains while Western economies faced pressures. Economically, net-zero pledges endorsed at COP26 were critiqued for imposing trillions in transition costs without commensurate benefits, with McKinsey Global Institute estimating an additional $3.5 trillion annually required worldwide by 2050 for decarbonization infrastructure, a burden equivalent to redirecting nearly 4% of global GDP each year. For developing countries, this framework was seen as particularly onerous, as forgoing affordable and gas would stifle industrialization and poverty alleviation; India's advocacy for diluted coal language stemmed from its need for reliable, low-cost power to support 1.4 billion people, where constitutes over 70% of and alternatives remain intermittent and expensive without massive subsidies. argued that such all-in commitments exceed global fiscal capacity—outstripping total current tax revenues—and yield marginal temperature reductions (e.g., 1.1°C avoided by 2100 under aggressive scenarios) at the expense of more efficient investments in R&D for cheaper clean tech or targeted . Compounding these concerns, COP26's finance pledges fell short of needs, with developed nations failing to fully deliver the promised $100 billion annually in climate aid by 2020—much provided as loans rather than grants—and adaptation funding requirements for vulnerable states estimated at $70 billion yearly, yet actual disbursements lagging significantly, eroding trust and incentivizing free-riding by non-committal emitters. Critics maintained that without addressing these asymmetries, the accords risked entrenching economic divergences, where wealthier nations offload transition pains onto poorer ones, potentially fueling and undermining long-term stability.

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