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Post-Islamism
Post-Islamism
Post-Islamism
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Post-Islamism is a neologism in political science, the definition and applicability of which is disputed. Asef Bayat and Olivier Roy are among the main architects of the idea.[1]

The term has been used by Bayat to refer to "a tendency" towards resecularizing of Islam after the "exhaustion" of political Islam;[2] by Olivier Carré to refer to an era of Islamic history (following the decline of the Abbasids but before modernity) where the political-military and religious realms were separated;[1] by Olivier Roy to a recognition that after repeated efforts Islamists had failed to establish a "concrete and viable blueprint for society";[3] and by Mustafa Akyol to refer to a reactionary opposition to Islamism in countries like Turkey, Iran, and Sudan.[4]

Terminology and definition

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The term was coined by Iranian political sociologist Asef Bayat, then associate professor of sociology at The American University in Cairo in a 1996 essay published in the journal Middle East Critique.[5][6] Bayat used it to refer "to the pragmatist orientation of Iran’s leadership after the death of Khomeini".[7]

Bayat describes it as "a condition where, following a phase of experimentation, the appeal, energy, symbols and sources of legitimacy of Islamism" becomes "exhausted, even among its once-ardent supporters", and a "fusion between Islam (as a personalized faith) and individual freedom and choice; ... with the values of democracy and aspects of modernity" emerges in its stead. As such, "post-Islamism is not anti-Islamic, but rather reflects a tendency to resecularize religion." It originally pertained only to Iran.[2] In this context, the prefix post- does not have historic connotation, but refers to the critical departure from Islamist discourse.[8] A decade later in 2007 Bayat described post-Islamism as both a "condition" and a "project".[1]

French politician Olivier Carré used the term in 1991 from a different perspective, to describe the period between the 10th and the 19th centuries, when both Shiite and Sunni Islam "separated the political-military from the religious realm, both theoretically and in practice".[1]

Olivier Roy argued in Globalized Islam: The Search for a New Ummah in 2004 that "Islamists around the world" had been unable "to translate their ideology into a concrete and viable blueprint for society", leading "Muslim discourse" to enter "a new phase of post-Islamism".[3]

Peter Mandaville describes a evolution away from the "political Islam of the sort represented by the Muslim Brotherhood and the broader Ikhwani tradition" which failed to gain mass public support and "found it progressively more difficult to offer up distinctively 'Islamic' solutions to basic problems of governance and economy", and towards "a parallel retreat of religiosity into the private domain" and "the rise of Islamic hip hop, urban dress, and other popular culture forms as new spaces of resistance and activist expression", "working through platforms and network hubs rather than through formal, hierarchical social and political organizations".[7]

Mustafa Akyol (of the libertarian think tank Cato Institute) writing in 2020, postulates not just a "tendency to resecularize" or a moderation/mellowing/tiring of Islamism, but a strong reaction by many Muslims against political Islam, including a weakening of religious faith — the very thing Islamism was intended to strengthen. The backlash has arisen especially in places where Islamists have been in power (Turkey, Iran, Sudan), and extends to a decline in religiosity among young Muslims.[4]

According to Salwa Ismail, the terms "Postmodern Islamism" and "New Age Islamism" are used interchangeably.[9]

Cases

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In Iran, the Reformist movement[10][11] and the group known as the Melli-Mazhabi (who are ideologically close to the Freedom Movement)[12] have been described as post-Islamist.

The advent of moderate parties Al-Wasat Party in Egypt, as well as Justice and Development Party in Morocco appeared to resemble emergence of post-Islamism, although scholars disputed this.[13][14] A similar characterization applies to the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS).[15]

A 2008 Lowy Institute for International Policy paper suggests that Prosperous Justice Party of Indonesia and Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey are post-Islamist.[16] According to Ahmet T. Kuru and Alfred Stepan (2012), many analysts consider Turkish AKP an example of post-Islamism, similar to Christian democratic parties, but Islamic.[17] However, some scholars such as Bassam Tibi dispute this.[18] İhsan Yılmaz argues that the party's ideology after 2011 is different from that of between 2001 and 2011.[19] Post-Islamism has also been used to describe the "ideological evolution" within the Ennahda of Tunisia.[20]

Further information: Criticism of Islamism § Failure of results

Writing in 2020, Mustafa Akyol suggests a backlash against Islamism among Muslim youth has come from all the "terrible things" that have happened in the Arab world recently "in the name of Islam" – such as the "sectarian civil wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen".[4]

Criticism

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Scholars such as Milad Dokhanchi have questioned whether post-Islamism represents a clear rupture from Islamism or simply a reconfiguration of it. Critics argue that the concept rests on an overly narrow and monolithic definition of Islamism, often equating it with state-centered projects such as the Iranian doctrine of velayat-e faqih, while overlooking the diversity of Islamist movements, including those that opposed clerical state power. Some contend that what Bayat describes as "post-Islamist" trends emerged less as a conscious intellectual project and more as a structural adaptation to the constraints of the modern state, in which political expediency and governance needs reshaped Islamist practices from within. Others note that labeling reformist or liberal Islamic discourses as "post-Islamist" risks collapsing continuities with earlier Islamist reform traditions, thereby overstating the novelty of the shift. Finally, critics caution that equating post-Islamism with liberal or democratic orientations may marginalize non-liberal forms of religious politics that also contest authoritarianism without fitting the post-Islamist label.[21]

See also

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References

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Post-Islamism

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Post-Islamism denotes a theoretical and observed shift in Muslim-majority societies from the rigid, obligation-driven of —characterized by efforts to implement comprehensive sharia-based —to a more flexible emphasizing , democratic pluralism, contextual interpretations of religious texts, and the integration of with modern civic life rather than state-imposed uniformity. Coined by sociologist Asef Bayat in the 1990s, the concept captures both a socio-political condition arising from the perceived exhaustion of Islamist promises (such as in Iran's post-1979 revolutionary disillusionment) and an active project to reformulate Islamist discourse from within, prioritizing historicity over ahistorical scriptural literalism and public participation over private moral enforcement. This evolution manifests in movements and parties that adapt to electoral realities and societal demands, as seen in Tunisia's Ennahda party, which has moderated its platform to embrace multiparty democracy and gender equality while retaining Islamic identity, or in Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) during its early years, which blended conservative values with economic liberalization and EU accession goals before veering toward centralization. In Iran, post-Islamism aligns with youth-led cultural expressions and reformist critiques that challenge clerical authoritarianism without rejecting faith outright, fostering "civil Islam" through grassroots networks rather than top-down theocracy. These shifts often emerge from internal critiques within Islamist circles, driven by governance failures—like economic stagnation or repression under Islamist rule—and external pressures such as globalization and secular youth demographics, leading to a de-emphasis on establishing an "Islamic state" in favor of pragmatic participation in pluralistic systems. Yet post-Islamism remains contested, with skeptics arguing it represents rhetorical for rather than substantive ideological transformation, as evidenced by persistent authoritarian tendencies in cases like post-Arab Spring , where the Muslim Brotherhood's brief rule highlighted unresolved tensions between electoral gains and theocratic impulses. Empirical assessments post-2011 uprisings suggest uneven : while some groups have internalized pluralistic norms, others revert to exclusionary politics when empowered, underscoring that post-Islamism's hinges on institutional and societal rather than mere discursive change. This debate highlights the concept's as a lens for analyzing hybrid political forms but cautions against overinterpreting as inevitable , given Islamism's resilience in mobilizing identity amid state failures.

Conceptual Foundations

Definition and Core Principles

Post-Islamism refers to a political and ideological shift that emerges as a response to the perceived limitations and empirical shortcomings of , which seeks to implement a comprehensive Islamic order through state mechanisms. Coined primarily by sociologist Asef Bayat in the late 1990s, it describes a deliberate effort to move beyond Islamist paradigms by integrating elements of religiosity with modern democratic norms, emphasizing individual rights over collective obligations and pluralism over monolithic interpretations of Islamic governance. Unlike secularism, which marginalizes religion, post-Islamism posits a synthesis where faith accommodates freedom, historicity contextualizes scriptures, and compromise supplants absolutism, often manifesting in movements that prioritize civil liberties and electoral participation within a framework informed but not dominated by Islam. Core principles of post-Islamism include a rights-oriented approach that privileges personal autonomy and democratic processes over duty-bound theocratic mandates. Bayat outlines this as favoring "religiosity and rights" rather than the fusion of religion and political responsibility inherent in Islamism, allowing for ambiguity, multiplicity of voices, and inclusion in both theory and practice. It critiques the exclusivity of Islamist politics, which often enforces singular authoritative interpretations, by advocating for a more inclusive outlook that accommodates diverse societal needs, such as those of women, youth, and minorities, without abrogating Islamic ethics entirely. This entails recognizing the historicity of religious texts—interpreting them in light of contemporary contexts—over rigid scriptural literalism, and supporting a civil or secular state apparatus that incorporates religious sensibilities pragmatically. Empirically, post-Islamism arises from the disillusionment with Islamist models, as seen in cases where or electoral Islamist experiments yielded , social repression, or failures, prompting adaptations toward hybrid systems blending with . Proponents argue it enables Islam to align with individual , , and global interconnectedness, transcending the binary of sacred versus profane . However, the concept's application remains debated among scholars, with some viewing it as an aspirational framework rather than a universally observed trend, given persistent Islamist resurgence in certain contexts.

Origins and Key Theorists

The of post-Islamism originated in the mid-1990s amid scholarly reflections on the ideological of following its experiments, particularly in after the , where promises gave way to socioeconomic disillusionment and demands for rights-based reforms. Iranian-American sociologist Asef Bayat formalized the term in his 1996 article " of a Post-Islamist ," positing it as an emergent condition in Muslim societies where Islamist paradigms, having prioritized and , confronted the pluralistic realities of , leading to hybrid forms blending with democratic participation and agency. Bayat's analysis drew from empirical observations of urban youth movements and women's activism in during the 1990s, which rejected rigid clerical authority in favor of contextualized religious interpretations adaptable to contemporary challenges. Bayat emerged as the primary theorist, elaborating post-Islamism as a project characterized by a pivot from Islamism's emphasis on collective religious duty to one privileging personal religiosity alongside civil , historical contingency over scriptural literalism, and multiplicity of over monolithic . In his 2007 book Making Islam Democratic: Social Movements and the Post-Islamist Turn, he argued that this shift was propelled by grassroots mobilization rather than elite decree, evidenced by Iran's 1997 presidential election of reformist Mohammad Khatami, which galvanized post-Islamist sentiments seeking reconciliation between piety and pluralism. His 2013 edited collection Post-Islamism: The Changing Faces of Political extended this framework across cases like Turkey and Indonesia, attributing the trend to Islamism's internal contradictions, such as its inability to deliver economic prosperity or social freedoms as promised in the 1970s-1980s waves of mobilization. French scholar Olivier Roy contributed a parallel strand, framing post-Islamism as the decoupling of from through globalization-induced individualization of , distinct from Bayat's sociopolitical focus. In Globalized Islam: The Search for a New (2002), Roy described "post-Islamism" as the privatization of re-Islamization, where migrants and converts in pursued "neo-fundamentalist" personal detached from state-oriented or , a process observable since the 1980s in diasporic communities prioritizing cultural identity over revolutionary ideology. Roy's causal emphasis on deterritorialization contrasted with Bayat's, highlighting how secularization within eroded its political monopoly, as seen in the 1990s decline of groups like Algeria's FIS after electoral gains exposed limits. These theorists' works, while influential in academic circles, have faced critique for overstating Islamism's demise, with some analyses noting persistent Islamist resilience in electoral post-Arab Spring.

Historical Development

Preconditions: The Rise and Empirical Failures of Islamism

Islamism emerged as a political seeking to establish based on Islamic () and principles, gaining traction in the Muslim world as a response to the perceived failures of secular and Western-influenced modernization. The , founded in in by , laid early ideological groundwork by advocating for against colonial legacies and secular elites, but its influence expanded significantly after the 1967 Six-Day War, which discredited Arab nationalist regimes like those of Gamal Abdel Nasser in and the Ba'athists in Syria and Iraq for their military defeats and inability to achieve pan-Arab unity or prosperity. This vacuum allowed Islamist groups to portray themselves as authentic alternatives rooted in religious authenticity, attracting followers disillusioned with authoritarian socialism's economic stagnation and cultural alienation. The 1979 Iranian Revolution marked a pivotal acceleration, overthrowing the secular Pahlavi monarchy and establishing the first modern Islamist state under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, inspiring both Shia and Sunni movements by demonstrating that mass mobilization under Islamic banners could topple entrenched regimes despite military odds. The revolution's success, fueled by anti-corruption rhetoric and promises of social justice, catalyzed global Islamist activism, including the Soviet-Afghan War (1979–1989), where mujahideen fighters, backed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the United States, defeated a superpower, further mythologizing jihad as a viable political tool and producing networks like al-Qaeda. Oil wealth from Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia's promotion of Wahhabism, provided billions in funding for mosques, schools, and charities worldwide, amplifying Islamist outreach from the 1970s onward and embedding the ideology in opposition politics across Algeria, Sudan, and Pakistan. Despite initial ideological appeal, Islamist governance repeatedly demonstrated empirical shortcomings, particularly in delivering promised economic prosperity and social stability, undermining its legitimacy. In Iran, post-revolutionary GDP per capita growth averaged under 1% annually from 1980 to 2000 amid mismanagement, corruption, and isolationist policies, contrasting sharply with the Shah-era's 8% average annual growth from 1960 to 1978, leading to widespread youth unemployment exceeding 25% by the 2010s and recurrent protests like those in 2009 and 2022 over economic hardships. Sudan's Islamist regime under Omar al-Bashir (1989–2019) enforced Sharia but oversaw hyperinflation peaking at 150% in 1993 and a debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 200% by 2011, with agricultural output stagnating due to ideological resistance to modern banking and international norms, culminating in Bashir's ouster amid famine and civil war. Egypt's brief experiment under Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi (2012–2013) exemplified governance failures: inheriting 1.8% GDP growth and 11% inflation in 2011, his administration saw foreign reserves plummet from $36 billion to $14.4 billion by mid-2013 due to policy paralysis and subsidies straining budgets, alienating even former supporters with power grabs and inability to address 30% youth unemployment. These outcomes stemmed from Islamists' prioritization of moralistic controls—such as censorship and gender segregation—over pragmatic reforms, revealing a disconnect between utopian rhetoric and administrative competence, as Islamist parties often lacked expertise in complex economies reliant on global trade. Socially, enforced conservatism bred backlash, with women's rights regressing in Sudan and Iran through hudud punishments, while corruption scandals eroded the moral high ground, fostering public disillusionment that questioned Islamism's viability as a totalizing system. Such repeated shortfalls—evident in over 40 years of data showing Islamist-ruled states lagging regional peers in Human Development Index rankings—created preconditions for post-Islamism by exposing causal limits: religious ideology alone could not resolve modern challenges like technological integration or fiscal sustainability, prompting segments of Muslim societies to seek hybrid models decoupling faith from state absolutism. This empirical critique, drawn from state collapses and mass protests, shifted focus from revolutionary zeal to reformist pragmatism, as seen in declining support for strict Sharia implementation in surveys across Egypt and Turkey post-2013.

Emergence in the Late 20th Century

The concept of post-Islamism emerged in the early 1990s as an analytical framework to describe the disillusionment with Islamist political projects following their empirical limitations in governance and mobilization. Sociologist Asef Bayat introduced the term to characterize a shift from Islamist emphases on obligation, uniformity, and scriptural fixity toward greater focus on rights, pluralism, and historical contingency, driven by internal critiques within Muslim societies and external pressures like globalization. This intellectual turn reflected the exhaustion of Islamism's revolutionary zeal after its peaks in the 1970s and 1980s, including the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Afghan jihad against Soviet occupation (1979–1989), which failed to deliver promised socioeconomic transformations amid prolonged conflicts and economic stagnation. In Iran, post-Islamism's practical roots surfaced in the late 1980s amid the aftermath of the (1980–1988), which caused over 500,000 Iranian deaths and economic devastation, eroding public faith in theocratic rule's efficacy. Grassroots discontent among youth, women, and intellectuals—manifesting in demands for social freedoms and pragmatic reforms—paved the way for the , culminating in Mohammad Khatami's presidency in 1997 but with precursors in underground cultural shifts during the early 1990s. Bayat observed this as a "post-Islamist" condition where state-imposed Islamism confronted modernity's demands, leading to hybrid practices blending faith with secular aspirations, though skeptics argue such changes were superficial amid persistent clerical dominance. Parallel developments appeared in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood's heterogeneous peaked in the late 1980s through social welfare provision but encountered electoral and ideological dead-ends by the early 1990s, prompting adaptations toward democratic participation over . In Turkey, the Welfare Party's (Refah Partisi) municipal successes in the 1990s under signaled a pragmatic pivot from pure to welfare-oriented , later evolutions, though interventions in 1997 highlighted tensions between Islamist ambitions and structures. These cases illustrated post-Islamism's not as a uniform ideology but as reactive responses to Islamism's governance failures, influenced by global events like the 1991 Gulf War, which exposed pan-Islamic rhetoric's limits against Western coalitions.

Regional Manifestations

Iran: Post-Revolutionary Shifts

Following the , which established a theocratic under , consolidation of Islamist emphasized wilayat al-faqih () and comprehensive Islamization of state institutions, , and . However, by the late , empirical failures—including the protracted (–), which caused over 500,000 deaths and economic devastation, alongside unfulfilled promises of and —fostered disillusionment with rigid ideological applications of . This catalyzed intellectual shifts toward post-Islamism, as articulated by sociologist Asef Bayat in the early , defining it as a transition from an emphasis on religious obligations and singular clerical authority to prioritizing individual rights, interpretive plurality, and historicized understandings of scripture over fixed dogma. Key thinker Abdolkarim Soroush advanced this through his doctrine of the "contraction and expansion of religious knowledge," positing that while divine essence remains immutable, human interpretations of sharia evolve with knowledge, necessitating separation between religious truth and state power to enable democratic pluralism. Politically, these ideas manifested in reformist governance attempts within the system's constraints. Mohammad Khatami's landslide election as president on May 23, 1997, with 69% of the vote, marked a pivotal post-Islamist inflection, promoting "civil society," rule of law, and his "dialogue among civilizations" initiative to temper revolutionary isolationism and foster pragmatic foreign engagement. Khatami's tenure (1997–2005) saw expanded press freedoms, student activism, and debates on constitutionalism, though hardliner resistance via the Guardian Council limited reforms. Subsequent reformist efforts under Hassan Rouhani (elected 2013, reelected 2017) pursued economic liberalization and the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear accord, reflecting post-Islamist pragmatism over ideological purity, yet faced setbacks from U.S. withdrawal in 2018 and domestic conservative backlash. The 2009 Green Movement protests, triggered by disputed presidential results favoring Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on June 12, 2009, exemplified mass demands for electoral integrity and rights, drawing millions to streets in Tehran and beyond before violent suppression. Societally, post-Islamist trends have deepened amid urban youth demographics (over 60% under 30 in the 1990s, persisting) and women's agency, evidenced by rising defiance of mandatory hijab and cultural secularization. A 2020 GAMAAN survey of over 50,000 respondents found only 32% identifying as Shia Muslim, with 22% non-religious, 9% atheist, and 78% favoring separation of religion and state, indicating widespread erosion of obligatory religiosity despite state enforcement. Nationwide protests erupting after Mahsa Amini's death in custody on September 13, 2022, for hijab non-compliance—resulting in over 500 deaths and chants of "Woman, Life, Freedom"—underscored a post-Islamist societal revolt against theocratic overreach, prioritizing personal autonomy over Islamist utopia. Analysts like Bayat note Iran's unique evolution as the vanguard of post-Islamism, where revolutionary Islamism's exhaustion has yielded a hybrid discourse blending Islamic identity with democratic aspirations, though institutional hardliners perpetuate tension between state and society.

Turkey: AKP's Evolution and Limits

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) was established on August 14, 2001, by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and dissidents from the Islamist Milli Görüş tradition, explicitly rejecting theocratic ambitions in favor of "conservative democracy" that integrated Islamic values with liberal economics, EU-aligned reforms, and secular pluralism. This self-positioning aligned with post-Islamist paradigms, emphasizing pragmatic governance over ideological purity, as evidenced by the party's early manifesto prioritizing anti-corruption, welfare expansion, and market liberalization to appeal beyond traditional Islamist bases. In the November 3, 2002, general elections, amid economic crisis and disillusionment with secular parties, the AKP won 34.3% of the vote and 363 of 550 parliamentary seats, forming a single-party government for the first time since 1987. Initial AKP rule demonstrated post-Islamist adaptation through empirical successes in stabilizing the economy—achieving GDP growth averaging 6.8% annually from 2003 to 2007—and pursuing democratization, including EU harmonization laws that reduced military tutelage via the 2004 EU accession candidacy reinforcement. Policies like headscarf removal bans being lifted in universities (2008) and public offices reflected selective accommodation of religious conservatives without imposing sharia, while voter surveys indicated support stemmed more from performance legitimacy than religious appeals. However, causal analysis suggests moderation was tactical, enabled by inclusion in competitive elections but vulnerable to power consolidation; by 2007, with 46.6% vote share, the AKP began challenging Kemalist institutions through judicial reforms and Ergenekon trials targeting secular elites, blurring lines between reform and selective authoritarianism. Post-2010, evolution toward de-moderation manifested in intensified power centralization, exemplified by the 2010 constitutional (58% approval) expanding presidential influence and the suppression of the 2013 Gezi Park , where police actions against millions of demonstrators highlighted intolerance for secular-liberal . The 2016 coup , blamed on Gülenists, prompted purges of over 150,000 civil servants, 4,000 judges, and closure of 150 media outlets, eroding and balances under rule extended until 2018. The April 2017 (51.4% yes) abolished parliamentary primacy for an executive , consolidating Erdoğan's control, while parallel Islamization efforts—such as expanding imam-hatip religious schools from 450 in 2002 to over 4,000 by 2016, enrolling 13% of students—prioritized conservative over . Limits to AKP's post-Islamist trajectory became evident in governance failures and electoral reversals, as economic orthodoxy gave way to heterodox policies post-2018, fueling peaking at 85.5% and currency , eroding the performance-based legitimacy that sustained early . , the AKP secured 35.6% of votes (268 seats with allies), losing its outright for the first time since , amid opposition gains exploiting discontent over the that killed over 50,000 and exposed state inefficiencies. The further underscored constraints, with the opposition CHP attaining 37.8% nationally and capturing and , signaling voter with authoritarian consolidation and Islamist-inflected that failed to transcend empirical Islamist pitfalls and identity polarization. Critics, drawing on inclusion-moderation theory, argue these limits reveal not evolution beyond Islamism but its mutation into competitive authoritarianism, where initial pragmatic reforms masked enduring ideological commitments unmasked by unchallenged power. Empirical data from diverse sources, including opposition-leaning and international observers, consistently highlight how causal factors like economic downturns and institutional erosion exposed the fragility of post-Islamist claims, privileging realist assessments over optimistic narratives of Islamist democratic compatibility.

Egypt and North Africa: Adaptations and Setbacks

In , the Muslim Brotherhood's electoral in the 2012 , with assuming on June 30, 2012, briefly positioned at the apex of post-revolutionary power, yet rapid governance shortcomings—marked by economic contraction of 2.2% GDP in 2012-2013, shortages, and exclusionary policies alienating non-Islamists—fueled widespread discontent and the June 30, 2013, Tamarod protests involving millions. This culminated in a coup on July 3, 2013, backed by secular and Coptic factions, designating the Brotherhood a terrorist organization and triggering mass arrests exceeding 16,000 members by 2014, asset seizures, and executions, including that of leader Mohamed Badie in 2014. Such repression fragmented the group, with internal schisms between hardliners and reformists exacerbating organizational decline and exile-based survival strategies by 2023, underscoring a setback wherein empirical failures in power eroded Islamist legitimacy without yielding sustained post-Islamist moderation. Tunisia presented a contrasting trajectory of adaptation, as Ennahda, legalized post-2011 revolution, moderated from clandestine jihadist roots—evident in its 1980s confrontations with Ben Ali's regime—to a pluralist stance, winning 89 of 217 assembly seats in October 2011 elections. At its May 2016 congress, Ennahda formally decoupled dawa (proselytizing) from politics, reorienting as "Muslim democrats" to prioritize democratic consensus over sharia implementation, a pragmatic pivot enabling coalitions like the 2014 troika government and input into the constitution enshrining freedoms alongside Islamic references. This evolution facilitated Ennahda's role in stabilizing post-revolutionary institutions amid economic fragility (GDP growth averaging 1.5% from 2011-2019), though setbacks emerged with electoral erosion—dropping to 36 seats in 2019—and President Kais Saied's July 2021 suspension of parliament, dissolving Ennahda's influence and prompting accusations of authoritarian backsliding that tested its post-Islamist resilience. In Morocco, the Justice and Development Party (PJD) exemplified constrained adaptations under monarchical oversight, surging to 107 seats in November 2011 elections post-Arab Spring and forming a coalition government led by Abdelilah Benkirane from 2011-2017, moderating demands for sharia by endorsing the king's amir al-mu'minin (commander of the faithful) authority and incremental reforms like family code revisions. Yet, governance disillusionment—fueled by unaddressed unemployment (9.5% national rate persisting through 2020) and perceived elite capture—precipitated electoral collapse, with PJD seats plummeting from 125 in 2016 to 13 in September 2021 polls, amid boycotts and the monarchy's promotion of rivals via normalized Israel ties under the 2020 Abraham Accords. This decline, compounded by rural organizational weaknesses exposed in pre-2017 fieldwork, highlighted setbacks wherein co-optation and performance gaps stalled deeper post-Islamist institutionalization, reverting PJD to opposition amid declining Islamist appeal. Algeria's post-Islamism remained stunted by the civil war's legacy, where the (FIS) neared in runoffs (32% first-round vote) before annulment sparked insurgency killing 150,000-200,000 by , forcing surviving Islamists into marginal adaptations like the MSP's with Bouteflika's from , prioritizing stability over amid hydrocarbon-dependent (98% export reliance). Repression and control perpetuated setbacks, with Hirak protests from sidelining Islamists, revealing persistent authoritarian barriers to pluralist . Across , these cases reveal post-Islamist adaptations—pragmatic and electoralism—undermined by causal realities of economic underperformance, resistance, and societal pushback, yielding uneven transitions rather than wholesale ideological supersession.

Other Cases: Indonesia, Morocco, and Beyond

In , post-Islamism emerged prominently following the fall of Suharto's authoritarian regime in , as democratization opened political opportunities for Islamist groups to adapt to pluralistic frameworks. The (PKS), originating from the Tarbiyah student movement influenced by Egypt's , exemplifies this shift by endorsing Indonesia's Pancasila ideology—which accommodates —and participating in multiparty elections without pursuing a singular . In the 2019 legislative elections, PKS and other Islamic parties incorporated post-Islamist elements into their platforms, emphasizing pragmatic and voter in a Muslim-majority democracy rather than revolutionary Sharia implementation, though aspirations for localized Sharia laws persist in regions like Aceh. This adaptation reflects empirical pressures from electoral competition and civil society demands, yet analysts note ongoing tensions with orthodox Islamist currents that resist full secular integration. Morocco's Justice and Development Party (PJD), established in 1998 as a moderate offshoot of Islamist movements, illustrates post-Islamism through its abandonment of establishing an in favor of parliamentary participation under the monarchy. The PJD secured victory in the 2011 elections post-Arab Spring, gaining 107 of 395 seats and forming a that prioritized economic reforms and social welfare over strict Sharia enforcement, aligning with King Mohammed VI's controlled liberalization. However, despite winning the popular vote in 2021 with 28% of seats, the PJD's influence waned as coalition partners withdrew amid royal interventions, highlighting limits to Islamist adaptation in a hybrid authoritarian system where the monarchy retains ultimate authority over religious and political spheres. This trajectory underscores causal constraints from state structures rather than ideological evolution alone, with post-Islamism manifesting as pragmatic exhaustion rather than transformative success. Beyond these cases, post-Islamist tendencies appear in Tunisia, where Ennahda's leadership post-2011 revolution moderated its rhetoric, rebranding in 2016 as a "Muslim democratic" party focused on consensus-building and rights within a secular constitution, though internal factions and 2021 political upheavals revealed persistent Islamist undercurrents. In Malaysia, parties like PAS have oscillated between Islamist purism and electoral pragmatism, adapting to multicultural federalism by emphasizing welfare over theocracy in coalitions such as the 2022 unity government. These examples, drawn from Asef Bayat's framework, suggest post-Islamism as a conditional response to democratic pressures and governance failures, yet empirical evidence indicates incomplete shifts, with Islamist revivalism recurring amid socioeconomic grievances and weak institutions.

Theoretical and Empirical Debates

Purported Achievements and Causal Mechanisms

Proponents of post-Islamism argue that it has enabled Islamist-originated movements to achieve greater political and societal integration by adapting to democratic institutions and market dynamics, moving beyond the utopian rigidities of classical . In , the and Development (AKP), positioned as a post-Islamist entity after shedding the overt ideological of its predecessors, facilitated through and pro-business reforms, contributing to 's GDP expansion and positioning it as a model for moderate Islamist governance in the early 2000s. This adaptation reportedly balanced democratization—via civilian oversight of the military and EU accession reforms—with conservative social policies, allowing sustained electoral dominance until authoritarian drifts emerged later. In Iran, post-Khomeini reformism under President Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005), who secured 70% of the vote in 1997 amid 80% turnout, purportedly advanced civil society norms, student-led pluralism, and moderated foreign policies, fostering temporary expansions in social freedoms and dialogue with the West. These achievements are attributed to causal mechanisms rooted in Islamism's internal exhaustion and external pressures. Empirical failures of Islamist regimes—such as Iran's post-revolutionary economic isolation and Turkey's pre-AKP secular —eroded mass appeal for totalizing Islamic orders, prompting a pragmatic pivot toward rights-based and electoral realism, as theorized by Asef Bayat. Social movements, driven by urban and global influences like waves since the , facilitated this shift by prioritizing individual and plurality over obligatory uniformity, movements to compete in pluralistic arenas without alienating modernizing constituencies. In Bayat's framework, this evolutionary —rather than ideological rejection—arises from historicity in interpreting scriptures, allowing flexible policy responses to globalization and domestic demands for welfare and rights. Such mechanisms purportedly underpin hybrid successes, though their durability remains contested amid reversals like Egypt's post-2011 Islamist setbacks.

Criticisms: Ideological Overreach and Persistent Islamist Realities

Critics argue that the post-Islamism exhibits ideological overreach by assuming a teleological progression from rigid Islamist to a pluralistic, rights-oriented , often based on ambiguous definitions that blur distinctions between and fundamental transformation. This overlooks the relative continuity in Islamist and priorities, such as prioritizing sharia-derived over secular pluralism, rendering claims of a decisive "post-" phase empirically unsubstantiated. Proponents like Asef Bayat posit post-Islamism as emerging from Islamism's internal crises, yet detractors highlight how such narratives impose Western secularization models onto resilient religious-political frameworks without sufficient causal evidence of deradicalization. In regional contexts, persistent Islamist realities undermine post-Islamist interpretations, as movements labeled "post-" revert to core ideological enforcements under pressure. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood's brief rule under President Mohamed Morsi from June 2012 to July 2013 exemplified this: despite electoral moderation rhetoric, Morsi issued decrees in November 2012 granting the presidency unchecked powers above judicial oversight and pushed a constitution embedding Islamist principles, alienating non-Islamist factions and precipitating the military coup on July 3, 2013. These actions reflected not a post-Islamist embrace of compromise but an overreach toward dominance, with the group's hierarchical structure impeding genuine ideological flexibility and prioritizing short-term Islamist gains over broad coalitions. Post-coup repression has since reinforced confrontational Islamist persistence rather than dilution. Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP), initially hailed as post-Islamist for its "" platform after elections, revealed contradictions by the mid-2010s, as power consolidation eroded pluralistic commitments. The , sparked by urban development disputes but escalating into widespread anti-authoritarian demonstrations, exposed AKP's majoritarian tendencies, with dismissing protesters as irreligious outliers while advancing policies favoring Islamic social norms. Concurrent probes targeting AKP allies, followed by purges of Gülen-linked institutions, underscored Machiavellian over democratic pluralism, with the party's selective tolerance—rooted in Turkey's post-1980 coup framework limiting opposition via 10% electoral thresholds—perpetuating hierarchical Islamist influences. In Iran, post-Khomeini reformist phases, such as under President (–), promised post-Islamist openings through dialogues, yet persistent theocratic structures via the Supreme Leader's veto powers ensured Islamist dominance, as seen in suppressed agendas and ongoing of religious edicts like mandatory . The 2009 Movement protests against alleged highlighted this resilience, with brutal crackdowns affirming that post-Islamist masks underlying commitments to velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the ) rather than yielding to secular integration. Across these cases, empirical patterns indicate Islamist ideologies adapt tactically—via electoral participation or —but retain causal primacy in conflicts with democratic norms, challenging post-Islamism's purported .

Broader Implications

Impact on Muslim Societies and Secular Integration

Post-Islamism has facilitated partial moderation in governance structures across several Muslim-majority countries, enabling hybrid systems that incorporate secular legal and economic frameworks alongside Islamic norms, though often without fully eroding theocratic elements. In Turkey, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), initially framed as post-Islamist for prioritizing economic liberalization and EU integration over strict Sharia implementation, oversaw reforms from 2002 to 2010 that aligned with secular standards, such as adopting IMF-backed policies that boosted GDP growth from 2.3% annually in the 1990s to 6.8% in the 2000s, while diluting Kemalist secularism through controlled religious expression. However, this integration stalled post-2013, with constitutional changes consolidating power and reintroducing conservative social policies, illustrating post-Islamism's pragmatic adaptation to secular pressures rather than a linear path to liberalization. In Iran, post-revolutionary disillusionment with the Islamic Republic's rigid spurred movements emphasizing and pluralism, as seen in the 1997-2005 reformist era under President Khatami, where initiatives promoted women's participation and media freedoms, temporarily increasing female enrollment from 35% in to 60% by 2005. These shifts reflect post-Islamism's recognition of secular exigencies, such as economic necessities foreign and youth-led protests against moral policing, yet reveals systemic change, with clerical vetoes preserving core Islamist structures and religiosity metrics showing only marginal declines in mandatory veiling compliance from 90% in the to around 70% urban adherence by amid sporadic . Empirical on secular integration indicate uneven , with surveys from Barometer across 11 revealing a dip in support for as state from 74% in 2013 to 65% by 2019, coinciding with post-Islamist adaptations in places like , where the Muslim Brotherhood's brief 2012-2013 rule yielded to after backlash against theocratic overreach. In , post-Suharto since 1998 allowed post-Islamist parties like the to blend Islamic identity with secular democracy, correlating with rising female labor participation from 50% in 2000 to 55% in 2020 and stable GDP per capita growth, though persistent blasphemy laws highlight incomplete disentanglement from religious monopoly. Critics argue these outcomes stem more from socioeconomic modernization—urbanization rates exceeding 50% in most cases—than inherent post-Islamist ideology, which often reverts to authoritarianism when secular challenges intensify, as evidenced by 's 2013 coup and Turkey's 2016 purge of secular institutions. Overall, while post-Islamism has enabled tactical secular accommodations, fostering limited social pluralism and economic pragmatism, it has not causally driven deep secularization, with religiosity levels remaining high (e.g., 80-90% prayer adherence in surveys) and Islamist resurgence possible under stress.

Future Trajectories Amid Declining Religiosity

Declining religiosity, evidenced by reduced identification with religious practice in select Muslim-majority contexts, presents both opportunities and challenges for post-Islamist paradigms, which prioritize and ethical religiosity over ideological . In , survey from – reveal a mid-2010s weakening of religiosity—marked by lower mosque and self-reported —but a subsequent stabilization or partial , particularly among who increasingly engage with religious texts while rejecting "not " labels. This suggests that while overt may accelerate post-Islamist shifts toward pluralistic politics, persistent cultural embeddedness of faith could sustain hybrid models blending democratic norms with moral frameworks, as theorized by Asef Bayat in his emphasis on post-Islamism as a move from duty-bound Islamism to rights-centered inclusivity. Global demographic trends further complicate these trajectories: Pew Research indicates that while Muslim populations grew fastest from 2010 to 2020 due to high fertility rates, overall religious affiliation worldwide dipped by nearly 1 percentage point, with projections of slower growth amid urbanization and education gains that historically correlate with practice declines. In the Middle East-North Africa region, where religiosity remains high—exemplified by Morocco's 90% reporting religion as very important—post-Islamist futures may hinge on negotiating secular state structures, as explored in analyses of Islamist recoveries post-setbacks, which highlight mechanisms like ideological adaptation rather than wholesale abandonment. Empirical studies posit a multi-generational sequence of decline, starting with reduced worship participation, potentially fostering post-Islamist public spheres in Indonesia and Turkey by remaking Islamic discourse around civil ethics rather than political monopoly. Critics of post-Islamism as an inevitable trajectory argue it overlooks sociological realities of enduring Islamist resilience, where declining practice does not equate to political delinkage, as seen in Tunisia and Egypt's contradictory paths post-Arab Spring, blending secular exigencies with rights yet facing ideological pushback. Future scenarios thus include accelerated re-secularization in urban youth cohorts—potentially yielding "alternative modernities" with diminished theocratic influence—or a reassertion of post-Zionist or settlement-era adaptations in conflict zones, prioritizing ethical Islam over expansionist ideology. These dynamics underscore causal links between socioeconomic modernization and religiosity erosion, yet regional variations, such as MENA's high baseline piety, imply post-Islamism's evolution will be uneven, contingent on empirical failures of governance rather than linear decline.

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