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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
from Wikipedia

Key Information

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to "provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies".[1] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) set up the IPCC in 1988. The United Nations endorsed the creation of the IPCC later that year.[2] It has a secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, hosted by the WMO. It has 195 member states who govern the IPCC.[3] The member states elect a bureau of scientists to serve through an assessment cycle. A cycle is usually six to seven years. The bureau selects experts in their fields to prepare IPCC reports.[4] There is a formal nomination process by governments and observer organizations to find these experts. The IPCC has three working groups and a task force, which carry out its scientific work.[4]

The IPCC informs governments about the state of knowledge of climate change. It does this by examining all the relevant scientific literature on the subject. This includes the natural, economic and social impacts and risks. It also covers possible response options. The IPCC does not conduct its own original research. It aims to be objective and comprehensive. Thousands of scientists and other experts volunteer to review the publications.[5] They compile key findings into "Assessment Reports" for policymakers and the general public;[4] Experts have described this work as the biggest peer review process in the scientific community.[6]

Leading climate scientists and all member governments endorse the IPCC's findings.[7][6] This underscores that the IPCC is a well-respected authority on climate change. Governments, civil society organizations, and the media regularly quote from the panel's reports. IPCC reports play a key role in the annual climate negotiations held by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[8][9] The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report was an important influence on the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015.[10] The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for contributions to the understanding of climate change.[11]

The seventh assessment cycle of the IPCC began in 2023. In August 2021, the IPCC published its Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report on the physical science basis of climate change.[12] The Guardian described this report as the "starkest warning yet" of "major inevitable and irreversible climate changes".[13] Many newspapers around the world echoed this theme.[14] In February 2022, the IPCC released its Working Group II report on impacts and adaptation.[15] It published Working Group III's "mitigation of climate change" contribution to the Sixth Assessment in April 2022.[16] The Sixth Assessment Report concluded with a Synthesis Report in March 2023.

During the period of the Sixth Assessment Report, the IPCC released three special reports. The first and most influential was the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in 2018. In 2019 the Special Report on Climate Change and Land, and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate came out. The IPCC also updated its methodologies in 2019. So the sixth assessment cycle was the most ambitious in the IPCC's history.[17]

Origins

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The predecessor of the IPCC was the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG).[18] Three organizations set up the AGGG in 1986. These were the International Council of Scientific Unions, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The AGGG reviewed scientific research on greenhouse gases. It also studied increases in greenhouse gases. Climate science was becoming more complicated and covering more disciplines. This small group of scientists lacked the resources to cover climate science.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency sought an international convention to restrict greenhouse gas emissions. The Reagan Administration worried that independent scientists would have too much influence. The WMO and UNEP therefore created the IPCC as an intergovernmental body in 1988. Scientists take part in the IPCC as both experts and government representatives. The IPCC produces reports backed by all leading relevant scientists. Member governments must also endorse the reports by consensus agreement. So the IPCC is both a scientific body and an organization of governments.[19][20] Its job is to tell governments what scientists know about climate change. It also examines the impacts of climate change and options for dealing with it. The IPCC does this by assessing peer-reviewed scientific literature.[21]

The United Nations endorsed the creation of the IPCC in 1988. The General Assembly resolution noted that human activity could change the climate. This could lead to severe economic and social consequences. It said increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases could warm the planet. This would cause the sea level to rise. The effects on humanity would be disastrous if timely steps were not taken.[2]

Organization

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Adoption of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in 2018

Way of working

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The IPCC does not conduct original research.[22] It produces comprehensive assessments on the state of knowledge of climate change. It prepares reports on special topics relevant to climate change. It also produces methodologies. These methodologies help countries estimate their greenhouse gas emissions and removals through sinks. Its assessments build on previous reports and scientific publications. Throughout six assessments the reports reflect the growing evidence for a changing climate. And they show how this is due to human activity.

Rules and governing principles

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The IPCC has adopted its rules of procedure in the "Principles Governing IPCC Work". These state that the IPCC will assess:[9]

Under IPCC rules its assessments are comprehensive, objective, open, and transparent. They cover all the information relevant to the scientific understanding of climate change. This draws on scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information. IPCC reports must be neutral regarding policy recommendations. However, they may address the objective factors relevant to enacting policies.[9]

Structure

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The IPCC has the following structure:

  • IPCC Panel: Meets in plenary session about twice a year. It may meet more often for the approval of reports.[4] It controls the IPCC's structure, procedures, work programme, and budget. It accepts and approves IPCC reports. The Panel is the IPCC corporate entity.[4]
  • Chair: Elected by the Panel. Chairs the Bureau and other bodies. Represents the organization.
  • Bureau: Elected by the Panel. It currently has 34 members from different geographic regions. Besides the Chair and three IPCC Vice-Chairs, they provide the leadership for the IPCC's three Working Groups and Task Force.[23] It provides guidance to the Panel on the scientific and technical aspects of its work.[24]
  • Working Groups: Each has two Co-Chairs, one from a developed and one from a developing country. A technical support unit supports each Working Group. Working Group sessions approve the Summary for Policymakers of assessment and special reports. Each Working Group has a Bureau. This consists of its Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs, who are also members of the IPCC Bureau.
    • Working Group I: Assesses scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. Co-Chairs: Robert Vautard (France) and Xiaoye Zhang (China)[25]
    • Working Group II: Assesses the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Assesses adaptation options. Co-Chairs: Bart van den Hurk (Netherlands) and Winston Chow (Singapore)[25]
    • Working Group III: Assesses how to stop climate change by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. (Known as "mitigation".) Co-Chairs: Katherine Calvin (United States) and Joy Jacqueline Pereira (Malaysia)[25]
  • Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.[26] Develops methodologies for estimating greenhouse gas emissions. Co-Chairs: Takeshi Enoki (Japan) and Mazhar Hayat (Pakistan)[25]
    • Task Force Bureau: Consists of two Co-Chairs, who are also members of the IPCC Bureau, and 12 members.
  • Executive Committee: Consists of the Chair, IPCC Vice-Chairs and the Co-Chairs of the Working Groups and Task Force. It addresses urgent issues that arise between sessions of the Panel.[27]
  • Secretariat: Administers activities, supports the Chair and Bureau, point of contact for governments. Supported by UNEP and the WMO.[28]

Chair

[edit]

The chair of the IPCC is British energy scientist Jim Skea, who is hosted by the International Institute for Environment and Development. Skea has served since 28 July 2023 with the election of the new IPCC Bureau.[29][25] His predecessor was Korean economist Hoesung Lee, elected in 2015. The previous chairs were Rajendra K. Pachauri, elected in 2002, Robert Watson, elected in 1997, and Bert Bolin, elected in 1988.[30]

Panel

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The Panel consists of representatives appointed by governments. They take part in plenary sessions of the IPCC and its Working Groups. Non-governmental and intergovernmental organizations may attend as observers.[31] Meetings of IPCC bodies are by invitation only.[9] About 500 people from 130 countries attended the 48th Session of the Panel in Incheon, Republic of Korea. This took place in October 2018. They included 290 government officials and 60 representatives of observer organizations. The opening ceremonies of sessions of the Panel and of Lead Author Meetings are open to media. Otherwise, IPCC meetings are closed.

Funding

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The IPCC receives funding through a dedicated trust fund. UNEP and the WMO established the fund in 1989. The trust fund receives annual financial contributions from member governments. The WMO, UNEP, and other organizations also contribute. Payments are voluntary and there is no set amount required. The WMO covers the operating costs of the secretariat. It also sets the IPCC's financial regulations and rules.[32] The Panel sets the annual budget.

In 2021, the IPCC's annual budget amounts to approximately six million euros, financed by the 195 UN Member states, who contribute "independently and voluntarily".[33][34] In 2021, the countries giving the most money include the United States, Japan, France, Germany and Norway.[33] Other countries, often developing ones, give an "in-kind contribution, by hosting IPCC meetings".[33] In 2022, this budget was a little less than eight million euros.[33]

List of all reports

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Year Name of report Type of report
2023 AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 (March 2023) Synthesis Report
2021 and 2022 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I, August 2021), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Working Group II, February 2022), Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III, April 2022) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)
2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Special Report
2019 Special Report on Climate Change and Land Special Report
2019 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[35] Methodology Report
2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) Special Report
2014 AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014[36] Synthesis Report
2013 and 2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I, September 2013), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Working Group II, March 2014), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III, April 2014) Assessment (Working Group contributions)
2013 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands[37] Methodology Report
2013 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance Arising from the Kyoto Protocol[38] Methodology Report
2011 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation[39] Special Report
2011 Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation[40] Special Report
2007 AR4 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report
2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I, February 2007), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Working Group II, April 2007), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III, May 2007) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)
2006 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
2005 Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System Special Report
2005 Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage[41] Special Report
2003 Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Methodology Report
2003 Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegatation of Other Vegetation Types Methodology Report
2001 TAR Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report
2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Working Group I), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Working Group II), Climate Change 2001: Mitigation (Working Group III) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)
2000 Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
2000 Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer Special Report
2000 Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry Special Report
2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Special Report
1999 Aviation and the Global Atmosphere Special Report
1997 The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability Special Report
1996 Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
1996 SAR Synthesis Report: Climate Change 1995 Synthesis Report
1995 Second Assessment Report (SAR) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Working Group I), Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (Working Group II), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (Working Group III) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)
1994 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
1994 Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios Special Report
1994 IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Special Report
1992 FAR Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments (June 1992) (includes an Overview of the whole report) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)/Synthesis Report
1992 FAR Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (Working Group I, February 2022), Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Impacts Assessment (Working Group II, February 2022) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)
1990 First Assessment Report (FAR) Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Working Group I), Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment (Working Group II), Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies (Working Group III) Assessment Report (Working Group contributions)

Activities other than report preparation

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The IPCC bases its work on the decisions of the WMO and UNEP, which established the IPCC. It also supports the work of the UNFCCC.[9] The main work of the IPCC is to prepare assessments and other reports. It also supports other activities such as the Data Distribution Centre.[42] This helps manage data related to IPCC reports.

The IPCC has a "Gender Policy and Implementation Plan" to pay attention to gender in its work. It aims to carry out its work inclusively and respectfully. The IPCC aims for balance in participation in IPCC work. This should offer all participants equal opportunity.[43]

Communications and dissemination activities

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The IPCC enhanced its communications activities for the Fifth Assessment Report. For instance, it made the approved report and press release available to registered media under embargo before the release.[44] And it expanded its outreach activities with an outreach calendar.[45] The IPCC held an Expert Meeting on Communication in February 2016, at the start of the Sixth Assessment Report cycle. Members of the old and new Bureaus worked with communications experts and practitioners at this meeting. This meeting produced a series of recommendations.[46] The IPCC adopted many of them. One was to bring people with communications expertise into the Working Group Technical Support Units. Another was to consider communication questions early on in the preparation of reports.

Following these steps in communications, the IPCC saw a significant increase in media coverage of its reports. This was particularly the case with the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C in 2018 and Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, in 2021. There was also much greater public interest, reflected in the youth and other movements that emerged in 2018.[47]

IPCC reports are important for public awareness of climate change and related policymaking. This has led to several academic studies of IPCC communications, for example in 2021.[48][49]

Archiving

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The IPCC archives its reports and electronic files on its website. They include the review comments on drafts of reports. The Environmental Science and Public Policy Archives in the Harvard Library also archives them.[50]

Assessment reports

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Page counts of the six IPCC Assessment Reports (1990 to 2021)

Between 1990 and 2023, the IPCC published six comprehensive assessment reports reviewing the latest climate science. The IPCC has also produced 14 special reports on particular topics.[51] Each assessment report has four parts. These are a contribution from each of the three working groups, plus a synthesis report. The synthesis report integrates the working group contributions. It also integrates any special reports produced in that assessment cycle.

Review process of scientific literature

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The IPCC does not carry out research. It does not monitor climate-related data. The reports by IPCC assess scientific papers and independent results from other scientific bodies. The IPCC sets a deadline for publication of scientific papers that a report will cover. That report will not include new information that emerges after this deadline. However, there is a steady evolution of key findings and levels of scientific confidence from one assessment report to the next.[52] Each IPCC report notes areas where the science has improved since the previous report. It also notes areas that would benefit from further research.

The First Assessment Report was published in 1990 and received an update in 1992.[53] In intervals of about six years, new editions of IPCC Assessment Report followed.

Selection and role of authors

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The focal points of the Member states — the individual appointed by each state to liaise with the IPCC — and the observer organizations submit to the IPCC Bureau a list of personalities, which they have freely constituted. The Bureau (more precisely, the co-chairs of the relevant working group, with the help of its technical support unit) uses these lists as a basis for appointing authors while retaining the possibility of appointing people who are not on the list, primarily based on scientific excellence and diversity of viewpoints, and to a lesser extent by ensuring geographical diversity, experience within the IPCC and gender. Authors may include, in addition to researchers, personalities from the private sector and experts from NGOs.[54][55][56][57]

The IPCC Bureau or Working Group Bureau selects the authors of the reports from government nominations. Lead authors of IPCC reports assess the available information about climate change based on published sources.[5][58] According to IPCC guidelines, authors should give priority to peer-reviewed sources.[5] Authors may refer to non-peer-reviewed sources ("grey literature"), if they are of sufficient quality.[5] These could include reports from government agencies and non-governmental organizations. Industry journals and model results are other examples of non-peer-reviewed sources.[5]

Authors prepare drafts of a full report divided into chapters. They also prepare a technical summary of the report, and a summary for policymakers.[5]

Each chapter has many authors to write and edit the material. A typical chapter has two coordinating lead authors, ten to fifteen lead authors, and a larger number of contributing authors. The coordinating lead authors assemble the contributions of the other authors. They ensure that contributions meet stylistic and formatting requirements. They report to the Working Group co-chairs. Lead authors write sections of chapters. They invite contributing authors to prepare text, graphs, or data for inclusion.[59] Review editors must ensure that authors respond to comments received during the two stages of drafts review: the first is only open to external experts and researchers, while the second is also open to government representatives.[60][61]

The Bureau aims for a range of views, expertise, and geographical representation in its choice of authors. This ensures the author team includes experts from both developing and developed countries. The Bureau also seeks a balance between male and female authors. It aims for a balance between those who have worked previously on IPCC reports and those new to the process.[59]

Scientists who work as authors on IPCC reports do not receive any compensation for this work, and all work voluntarily.[62] They depend on the salaries they receive from their home institutions or other work. The work is labour-intensive with a big time commitment. It can disrupt participating scientists' research. This has led to concern that the IPCC process may discourage qualified scientists from participating.[63][64] More than 3,000 authors (coordinating lead authors, lead authors, review editors) have participated in the drafting of IPCC reports since its creation.[62]

Review process for assessment reports

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Expert reviewers comment at different stages on the drafts.[65] Reviewers come from member governments and IPCC observers. Also, anyone may become an IPCC reviewer by stating they have the relevant expertise.

There are generally three stages in the review process.[5] First comes an expert review of the first draft of the chapters. The next stage is a review by governments and experts of the revised draft of the chapters and the first draft of the Summary for Policymakers. The third stage is a government review of the revised Summary for Policymakers. Review comments and author responses remain in an open archive for at least five years. Finally, government representatives together with the authors review the Summary for Policymakers. They go through the Summary for Policymakers line by line to ensure it is a good summary of the underlying report. This final review of the Summary of Policymakers takes place at sessions of the responsible working group or of the Panel.

There are several types of endorsement that documents receive:

  • Approval - Material has been subject to detailed, line-by-line discussion and agreement. (The relevant Working Groups approve Working Group Summaries for Policymakers. The Panel approves the Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers.)
  • Adoption - Endorsed section by section (not line by line). (The Panel adopts the full IPCC Synthesis Report. It also adopts Overview Chapters of Methodology Reports.)
  • Acceptance - Not been subject to line-by-line discussion and agreement. But it presents a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view of the subject matter. (Working Groups accept their reports. The Panel accepts Working Group Summaries for Policymakers after working group approval. The Panel accepts Methodology Reports.)

Key findings and impacts

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Assessment reports one to five (1990 to 2014)

[edit]
IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group I Co-chair Sir John T. Houghton showing a figure that was included in the "Summary for Policymakers" of that report ("hockey stick graph") at a climate conference in 2005
  • The IPCC's First Assessment Report (FAR) appeared in 1990. The report gave a broad overview of climate change science. It discussed uncertainties and provided evidence of warming. The authors said they are certain that greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere because of human activity. This is resulting in more warming of the Earth's surface.[66][67] The report led to the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[51]
  • The Second Assessment Report (SAR), was published in 1995. It strengthened the findings of the First Assessment Report. The evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on the global climate, it said.[68] The Second Assessment Report provided important material for the negotiations leading to the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol.[69]
  • The Third Assessment Report (TAR) was completed in 2001. It found more evidence that most of the global warming seen over the previous 50 years was due to human activity.[70] The report includes a graph reconstructing global temperature since the year 1000. The sharp rise in temperature in recent years gave it the name "hockey stick". This became a powerful image of how temperature is soaring with climate change. The report also shows how adaptation to the effects of climate change can reduce some of its ill effects.
  • The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was published in 2007. It gives much greater certainty about climate change. It states: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal..."[71] The report helped make people around the world aware of climate change. The IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize in the year of the report's publication for this work (see below).
  • The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was published in 2013 and 2014. This report again stated the fact of climate change. It warned of the dangerous risks. And it emphasizes how the world can counter climate change. Three key findings were for example: Firstly, human influence on the climate system is clear. Secondly, the more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. And thirdly, we have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future.[72] The report's findings were the scientific foundation of the UNFCCC's 2015 Paris Agreement.[73]

Sixth assessment report (2021/2022)

[edit]

The IPCC's most recent report is the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The first three installments of AR6 appeared in 2021 and 2022. The final synthesis report was completed in March 2023.

The IPCC published the Working Group I report, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, in August 2021.[12] It confirms that the climate is already changing in every region. Many of these changes have not been seen in thousands of years. Many of them such as sea-level rise are irreversible over hundreds of thousands of years. Strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would limit climate change. But it could take 20–30 years for the climate to stabilize.[74] This report attracted enormous media and public attention. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described it as "code red for humanity".[75]

The IPCC published the Working Group II report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, in February 2022.[76] Climate change due to human activities is already affecting the lives of billions of people, it said. It is disrupting nature. The world faces unavoidable hazards over the next two decades even with global warming of 1.5 °C, it said.[77]

The IPCC published the Working Group III report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, in April 2022.[78] It will be impossible to limit warming to 1.5 °C without immediate and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. It is still possible to halve emissions by 2050, it said.[79]

Other reports

[edit]

Special reports

[edit]

The IPCC also publishes other types of reports. It produces Special Reports on topics proposed by governments or observer organizations. Between 1994 and 2019 the IPCC published 14 special reports. Now usually more than one working group cooperates to produce a special report. The preparation and approval process is the same as for assessment reports.[5]

Special reports in 2011

[edit]

During the fifth assessment cycle, the IPCC produced two special reports. It completed the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation in 2011. Working Group III prepared this report. The report examined options to use different types of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels. The report noted that the cost of most renewable technologies had fallen. It was likely to fall even more with further advances in technology. It said renewables could increase access to energy. The report reviewed 164 scenarios that examine how renewables could help stop climate change. In more than half of these scenarios, renewables would contribute more than 27% of the primary energy supply in the mid-century. This would be more than double the 13% share in 2008. In the scenarios with the highest shares for renewable energy, it will contribute 77% by 2050.[80]

Later in 2011, the IPCC released the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. This was a collaboration between Working Groups I and II. It was the first time two IPCC working groups worked together on a special report. The report shows how climate change has contributed to changes in extreme weather. And it shows how policies to avoid and prepare for extreme weather events can reduce their impact. In the same way, policies to respond to events and recover from them can make societies more resilient.[81][82]

Special reports 2018–2019

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During the sixth assessment cycle, the IPCC produced three special reports. This made it the most ambitious cycle in IPCC history. The UNFCCC set a goal of keeping global warming well below 2 °C (36 °F) while trying to hold it at 1.5 °C (34.7 °F), when it reached the Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015. But at the time there was little understanding of what warming of 1.5 °C meant. There was little scientific research explaining how the impacts of 1.5 °C would differ from 2 °C. And there was little understanding about how to keep warming to 1.5 °C. So the UNFCCC invited the IPCC to prepare a report on global warming of 1.5 °C. The IPCC subsequently released the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) in 2018.[83] The report showed that it was possible to keep warming below 1.5 °C during the 21st century. But this would mean deep cuts in emissions. It would also mean rapid, far-reaching changes in all aspects of society.[84] The report showed warming of 2 °C would have much more severe impacts than 1.5 °C. In other words: every bit of warming matters. SR15 had an unprecedented impact on an IPCC report in the media and with the public.[47] It put the 1.5 °C target at the centre of climate activism.[85]

In 2019 the IPCC released two more special reports that examine different parts of the climate system. The Special Report on Climate Change and Land examined how the way we use land affects the climate. It looked at emissions from activities such as farming and forestry rather than from energy and transport. It also looked at how climate change is affecting land. All three IPCC working groups and its Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories collaborated on the report. The report found that climate change is adding to the pressures we are putting on the land we use to live on and grow our food.[86] It will only be possible to keep warming well below 2 °C if we reduce emissions from all sectors including land and food, it said.[87]

The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate examined how the ocean and frozen parts of the planet interact with climate change. (The cryosphere includes frozen systems such as ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost.) IPCC Working Groups I and II prepared the report. The report highlighted the need to tackle unprecedented changes in the ocean and cryosphere.[88] It also showed how adaptation could help sustainable development.

Methodology Reports

[edit]

The IPCC has a National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. It develops methodologies and software for countries to report their greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC's Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) has managed the program since 1998.[26] Japan's Institute for Global Environmental Strategies[89] hosts the TFI's Technical Support Unit.

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines

[edit]

The IPCC released its first Methodology Report, the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, in 1994. The Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories updated this report.[90] Two "good practice reports" complete these guidelines. These are the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. Parties to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol use the 1996 guidelines and two good practice reports for their annual submissions of inventories.

2006 IPCC Guidelines

[edit]

The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories further update these methodologies.[91] They include a large number of "default emission factors". These are factors to estimate the amount of emissions for an activity. The IPCC prepared this new version of the guidelines at the request of the UNFCCC.[92] The UNFCCC accepted them for use at its 2013 Climate Change Conference, COP19, in Warsaw. The IPCC added further material in its 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.[93]

The TFI has started preparations for a methodology report on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs).[94][95] It will complete this report in the next assessment cycle, the seventh.

Challenges and controversies

[edit]

IPCC reports also attract criticism. Criticisms come from both people who say the reports exaggerate the risks and people who say they understate them.[96] The IPCC consensus approach has faced internal and external challenges.[97][98]

Conservative nature of IPCC reports

[edit]

Some critics have argued that IPCC reports tend to be too conservative in their assessments of climate risk. In 2012, it was reported that the IPCC has been criticized by some scientists, who argue that the reports consistently underestimate the pace and impacts of global warming.[96] As a result, they believe this leads to findings that are the "lowest common denominator".[99] [clarification needed] Similar claims have also been made by scientists who found that for the last several assessment reports, the focus of the IPCC reports skewed more and more towards lower temperatures, especially 1.5°C.[100] Temperatures above 2°C however, have seen much less attention, even though they seem more likely given current emission trajectories.[101]

David Biello, writing in the Scientific American, argues that, because of the need to secure consensus among governmental representatives, the IPCC reports give conservative estimates of the likely extent and effects of global warming.[102] Science editor Brooks Hanson states in a 2010 editorial: "The IPCC reports have underestimated the pace of climate change while overestimating societies' abilities to curb greenhouse gas emissions."[103]

Climate scientist James E. Hansen argues that the IPCC's conservativeness seriously underestimates the risk of sea-level rise on the order of meters—enough to inundate many low-lying areas, such as the southern third of Florida.[104] In January 2024, he told the Guardian, "We are now in the process of moving into the 1.5C world." He added that "passing through the 1.5C world is a significant milestone because it shows that the story being told by the United Nations, with the acquiescence of its scientific advisory body, the IPCC, is a load of bullshit."[105]

Roger A. Pielke Sr. has also stated "Humans are significantly altering the global climate, but in a variety of diverse ways beyond the radiative effect of carbon dioxide. The IPCC assessments have been too conservative in recognizing the importance of these human climate forcings as they alter regional and global climate."[106]

Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of physics and oceanography at University of Potsdam, argued in 2007 that the IPCC's tendency to make conservative risk assessments had benefits. Rahmstorf argued that "In a way, it is one of the strengths of the IPCC to be very conservative and cautious and not overstate any climate change risk".[107] IPCC reports aim to inform policymakers about the state of knowledge on climate change. They do this by assessing the findings of the thousands of scientific papers available on the subject at a given time. Individual publications may have different conclusions from IPCC reports. This includes those appearing just after the release of an IPCC report. This can lead to criticism that the IPCC is either alarmist or conservative. New findings must wait for the next assessment for consideration.[108][109]

Potential industry and political influence

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A memo by ExxonMobil to the Bush administration in the United States in 2002 was an example of possible political influence on the IPCC. The memo led to strong Bush administration lobbying to oust Robert Watson, a climate scientist, as IPCC chair. They sought to replace him with Rajendra Pachauri. Many considered Pachauri at the time as more mild-mannered and industry-friendly.[110]

Governments form the membership of the IPCC. They are the prime audience for IPCC reports. IPCC rules give them a formal role in the scoping, preparation, and approval of reports.[111] For instance governments take part in the review process and work with authors to approve the Summary for Policymakers of reports. But some activists have argued that governments abuse this role to influence the outcome of reports.[112]

In 2023, it was reported that pressure from Brazil and Argentina, two countries with large beef industries, caused the IPCC to abandon text recommending the adoption of plant-based diets. An earlier draft of the report, which noted "plant-based diets can reduce GHG emissions by up to 50% compared to the average emission-intensive Western diet", was leaked online in March 2023.[113]

Controversy and review after Fourth Assessment Report in 2007

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The IPCC came under unprecedented media scrutiny in 2009 in the run-up to the Copenhagen climate conference. This "Climatic Research Unit email controversy" involved the leak of emails from climate scientists. Many of these scientists were authors of the Fourth Assessment Report which came out in 2007. The discovery of an error in this report that the Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035 put the IPCC under further pressure.[114] Scientific bodies upheld the general findings of the Fourth Assessment Report and the IPCC's approach.[115][116] But many people thought the IPCC should review the way it works.[117]

InterAcademy Council review in 2010

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Public debate after the publication of AR4 in 2009 put the IPCC under scrutiny, with controversies over alleged bias and inaccuracy in its reports. In 2010, this prompted U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and IPCC chair Rajendra K. Pachauri to request that the InterAcademy Council (IAC) review the IPCC and recommend ways to strengthen its processes and procedures for the preparation of AR5. The IAC report made recommendations to fortify IPCC's management structure, to further develop its conflict-of-interest policy, to strengthen the review process, to clarify the guidelines on the use of so-called gray literature, to ensure consistency in the use of probabilities for the likelihood of outcomes, and to improve its communications strategy, especially regarding transparency and rapidity of response.[118]

The United Nations Secretary-General and the Chair of the IPCC asked the InterAcademy Council (IAC) in March 2010 to review the IPCC's processes for preparing its reports.[117][119] The IAC panel, chaired by Harold Tafler Shapiro, released its report on 1 September 2010.[120] The IAC panel made seven formal recommendations for improving the IPCC's assessment process. The IPCC implemented most of the review's recommendations by 2012. One of these was the introduction of a protocol to handle errors in reports.[5][121] Other recommendations included strengthening the science-review process and improving communications. However, the IPCC did not adopt the proposal to appoint a full-time executive secretary.[120][122]

Issues with consensual approach

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Michael Oppenheimer, a long-time participant in the IPCC, has said the IPCC consensus approach has some limitations. Oppenheimer, a coordinating lead author of the Fifth Assessment Report, called for concurring, smaller assessments of special problems instead of the large-scale approach of previous IPCC assessments.[98] Others see "mixed blessings" in the drive for consensus within the IPCC. They suggest including dissenting or minority positions.[123] Others suggest improving statements about uncertainties.[124][125]

Criticism by experts involved with the IPCC process

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Some of the criticism has originated from experts invited by the IPCC to submit reports or serve on its panels. For example, John Christy, a contributing author who works at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, explained in 2007 the difficulties of establishing scientific consensus on the precise extent of human action on climate change. "Contributing authors essentially are asked to contribute a little text at the beginning and to review the first two drafts. We have no control over editing decisions. Even less influence is granted to the 2,000 or so reviewers. Thus, to say that 800 contributing authors or 2,000 reviewers reached consensus on anything describes a situation that is not reality", he wrote.[126] Christopher Landsea, a hurricane researcher, said of "the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant" that "I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound,"[127] because of comments made at a press conference by Kevin Trenberth of which Landsea disapproved. Trenberth said "Landsea's comments were not correct";[128] the IPCC replied "individual scientists can do what they wish in their own rights, as long as they are not saying anything on behalf of the IPCC".[129]

Endorsements and awards

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Endorsements from scientific bodies

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IPCC reports are the benchmark for climate science.[130] There is widespread support for the IPCC in the scientific community. Publications by other scientific bodies and experts show this.[131][132] Many scientific bodies have issued official statements that endorse the findings of the IPCC. For example:

Nobel Peace Prize in 2007

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In December 2007, the IPCC received the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change". It shared the award with former U.S. Vice-president Al Gore for his work on climate change and the documentary An Inconvenient Truth.[138]

Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity in 2022

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In October 2022, the IPCC and IPBES shared the Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity. The two intergovernmental bodies won the prize because they "produce scientific knowledge, alert society, and inform decision-makers to make better choices for combatting climate change and the loss of biodiversity".[139]

See also

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References

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Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental organization under the auspices of the United Nations, established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide governments with objective assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Comprising representatives from 195 member countries, the IPCC does not conduct original research but synthesizes existing peer-reviewed literature through working groups focused on physical science, impacts and adaptation, and mitigation strategies, culminating in comprehensive assessment reports issued approximately every five to seven years—the sixth cycle spanning 2015 to 2023 reviewed over 14,000 scientific papers. The organization's Summary for Policymakers, approved line-by-line by governments, distills key findings but has drawn scrutiny for potential political influence diverging from underlying technical reports. In 2007, the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for advancing understanding of anthropogenic climate change risks. Notable achievements include mobilizing global scientific consensus on observed warming trends and human contributions, yet controversies persist over documented errors—such as the unsubstantiated claim in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report that Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035, later retracted—and broader debates on overconfidence in projections amid inherent uncertainties in climate modeling and the selective emphasis in summaries. These issues prompted an independent review by the InterAcademy Council in 2010, recommending procedural reforms to enhance rigor and transparency.

Establishment and Historical Development

Founding in 1988

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the (WMO) and the (UNEP) to assess scientific relevant to and its environmental and socio-economic impacts. This creation responded to recommendations from prior scientific gatherings, including the 1985 Villach Workshop organized by WMO, ICSU, and UNEP, which urged systematic international evaluation of climate risks, and the June 1988 World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere in Toronto, which called for a mechanism to synthesize climate science for policymakers. The endorsed the IPCC's formation through Resolution 43/53, adopted on 6 , which tasked the panel with conducting a comprehensive of , including , potential consequences, and options with an emphasis on equitable international . participation included representatives from 35 nations at preparatory meetings earlier in , reflecting early governmental amid emerging on atmospheric CO2 increases from sources like the , which had documented a rise from about 315 ppm in 1958 to over 350 ppm by . The IPCC's first plenary session (IPCC-1) convened in , , from 9 to 11 1988, where delegates from 45 and observers established three initial working groups: one on scientific assessment of , another on environmental and socio-economic impacts, and a third on response strategies to mitigate and adapt to risks. Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin was elected as the inaugural chair, with the panel's mandate limited to assessment rather than primary research or policy prescription, though its summaries would later influence negotiations leading to the 1992 UNFCCC. By year's end, the IPCC had formalized its intergovernmental structure, open to all UN member states, prioritizing peer-reviewed literature while incorporating government nominations for expert authors.

Expansion of Scope and Early Assessments

The IPCC's initial mandate, established in 1988, emphasized assessing the science of climate change, but its First Assessment Report (FAR), completed in August 1990, expanded the scope to encompass environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as response strategies. The FAR included contributions from three working groups: Working Group I on the scientific basis, Working Group II on potential impacts, and Working Group III on response options, culminating in an integrated overview that informed early international negotiations leading to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This broadening reflected recognition of the need to evaluate not only radiative forcing from greenhouse gases like CO₂—which accounted for over half of the enhanced effect—but also downstream consequences such as sea-level rise and options like energy efficiency improvements and CFC phase-outs. Supplementary reports issued in updated the FAR's findings, incorporating new on emissions scenarios and projections under business-as-usual pathways, while maintaining the tripartite but highlighting gaps in regional impact assessments. These supplements reinforced the FAR's conclusion that posed a discernible influence, prompting further methodological refinements. In 1992, ahead of the Second Assessment Report (SAR), the IPCC reorganized Working Groups II and III to deepen coverage: Working Group II focused on impacts, adaptations, and , while Working Group III addressed cross-cutting economic and social dimensions of . This restructuring expanded analytical depth by separating and from broader responses and introducing dedicated socio-economic , responding to UNFCCC Article 2's emphasis on avoiding dangerous interference with the . The SAR, finalized in December 1995, synthesized updated across these areas, projecting warmer temperatures and sea-level rise under various scenarios, and provided key for the negotiations by quantifying mitigation potentials and needs.

Institutional Changes Over Time

Following the release of its First Assessment Report in 1990, the IPCC reorganized its structure to facilitate specialized assessments, establishing three permanent Working Groups at its sixth Plenary session: Working Group I focusing on the physical science basis of climate change, Working Group II on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, and Working Group III initially on response strategies to climate change (later refined to emphasize mitigation options). Concurrently, the Plenary created the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories to standardize methodologies for tracking emissions and removals, with its first guidelines published in 1995 and subsequent refinements issued periodically, including the 2019 update to the 2006 guidelines. These changes marked a shift from ad hoc task forces under the original 1988 framework to a more enduring divisional structure, enabling parallel development of assessment reports while accommodating growing governmental participation, which expanded from about 35 countries in 1990 to 195 member governments by the 2010s. A major inflection point came after the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, when high-profile errors—such as unsubstantiated claims about Himalayan glacier melt—and leaked emails from the Climatic Research Unit (Climategate) eroded public trust, prompting scrutiny of the IPCC's processes. In March 2010, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri commissioned the InterAcademy Council (IAC), a consortium of global science academies, to conduct an independent review of the IPCC's procedures, management, and governance. The IAC report, published in August 2010, identified deficiencies in oversight, uncertainty characterization, handling of grey literature, and conflict-of-interest safeguards, recommending structural reforms like an executive body for efficient decision-making, clearer delineation of volunteer and paid roles, and mandatory uncertainty protocols calibrated to evidence levels (e.g., distinguishing "likely" from "very likely" with quantified ranges where possible). It emphasized that while the IPCC's scientific core remained robust, procedural lapses had amplified perceptions of bias, particularly in the government-influenced approval of Summaries for Policymakers. The IPCC responded swiftly at its 34th in and 36th in May , implementing core IAC recommendations to enhance and transparency. Key reforms included adopting a formal in , applicable to the Bureau, authors, and reviewers, requiring disclosures and barring those with significant financial ties from roles; establishing an Executive comprising the , Vice-Chairs, and Co-Chairs to streamline operations between Plenaries; revising guidelines for to limit its use to verifiable cases with explicit justification; and mandating consistent across reports, tied directly to underlying chapters for traceability during Summary for Policymakers negotiations. These measures were codified in updated Principles and Procedures, applied starting with the Fifth Assessment Report (2013–2014), and aimed to mitigate governmental overreach in scientific synthesis while preserving the intergovernmental approval mechanism. Subsequent cycles saw incremental adjustments reflecting lessons from prior assessments and broader participation. For the Sixth Assessment Report (2021–2022), the Bureau expanded to include more vice-chairs for regional and thematic balance, with author teams growing to over 700 experts from 90 countries, incorporating stricter diversity criteria for gender and geography as per revised selection guidelines. The review process was further fortified with mandatory expert and government reviews for all drafts, achieving response rates exceeding 90% in some stages, though critics noted persistent challenges in balancing scientific rigor with policy-relevant summaries approved line-by-line by governments. By the seventh assessment cycle's launch in July 2023, including the election of a new Chair, the IPCC had formalized task groups for communications and future scoping, signaling ongoing adaptation to demands for modular, targeted reports amid resource constraints. These evolutions underscore a trajectory toward greater procedural robustness, though the core intergovernmental model—prioritizing consensus over dissent—has remained unchanged since 1988.

Organizational Structure and Operations

Governance Bodies and Leadership

The IPCC is governed by its Panel, consisting of representatives from 195 member governments who participate in annual Plenary Sessions to approve the work programme, adopt reports, and allocate budgets. The Panel operates on a consensus basis, with each member government designating a National Focal Point to coordinate national inputs and nominations. The IPCC Bureau, elected by the Panel, comprises 34 members and serves for the duration of an assessment cycle, providing strategic guidance on scientific and technical matters between Plenary Sessions. It includes the IPCC Chair, three Vice-Chairs, two Co-Chairs each for the three Working Groups, Vice-Chairs for each Working Group, and the Co-Chairs and members of the Task Force Bureau on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. An Executive Committee, formed by the Chair, Vice-Chairs, and Working Group and Task Force Co-Chairs, oversees the implementation of the Panel's decisions to ensure timely delivery of assessments. Bureau members are unpaid scientists selected to reflect regional, gender, and disciplinary balance, with nominations submitted by governments or observer organizations ahead of elections conducted via secret ballot during Plenary Sessions. Elections proceed sequentially: the Chair first, followed by Vice-Chairs, Working Group Co-Chairs, and other positions. The current Bureau was elected at the 59th Plenary Session in Nairobi, Kenya, from July 25–28, 2023, for the Seventh Assessment Report cycle. Jim Skea of the United Kingdom serves as Chair, succeeding Hoesung Lee; Skea, a professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London, was elected on July 26, 2023. The Vice-Chairs are Ladislaus Chang’a (Tanzania), Ramón Pichs-Madruga (Cuba), and Diana Ürge-Vorsatz (Hungary). Working Group I Co-Chairs are Robert Vautard (France) and Xiaoye Zhang (China), focusing on physical science basis; Working Group II Co-Chairs are Bart van den Hurk (Netherlands) and Winston Chow (Singapore), addressing impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; Working Group III Co-Chairs are Katherine Calvin (United States) and Joy Jacqueline Pereira (Malaysia), covering mitigation options. Task Force Co-Chairs are Takeshi Enoki (Japan) and Mazhar Hayat (Pakistan). Each Working Group has seven Vice-Chairs to support coordination and review processes. This intergovernmental election mechanism ensures government oversight but has drawn criticism for potentially prioritizing political representativeness over pure scientific merit, as Bureau members must navigate approvals from member states during report finalization. Nonetheless, the structure maintains continuity across assessment cycles, with terms aligned to six-to-seven-year reporting periods.

Working Groups, Task Forces, and Author Selection

The IPCC organizes its scientific assessment activities across three and the on National Inventories (TFI), with additional ad-hoc task groups formed as needed for specific mandates. I (WG I) assesses the physical science basis of , including observations, paleoclimate , studies, and modeling of the . II (WG II) evaluates impacts of on and systems, options, and vulnerabilities. III (WG III) examines options for mitigating through in and enhancements of sinks. Each is led by two Co-Chairs—one typically from a developed country and one from a developing country or economy in transition—supported by Vice-Chairs and Technical Support Units hosted by governments or institutions. The TFI oversees the development and refinement of methodologies for calculating and reporting national greenhouse gas inventories, providing guidelines used by countries under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. Established to support the IPCC's core function of synthesizing emission data, the TFI produced the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, refined in 2019, which include sector-specific methods for energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land use, and waste. The TFI is coordinated by its Bureau, comprising Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs, and maintains software tools for inventory compilation. Ad-hoc groups, such as the Task Group on Data Support for Climate Change Assessments (TG-Data), address targeted issues like data access and interoperability. Author teams for IPCC reports are selected through a structured nomination and review process to ensure expertise while promoting balance. Governments, IPCC observer organizations, and Bureau members nominate candidates via online calls, submitting detailed CVs and publication lists; for the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), nominations opened on September 15, 2017. The IPCC Bureau or Working Group Bureaus then select authors—Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs), Lead Authors (LAs), and Review Editors—based on scientific qualifications, relevant publications, and the need to cover report outlines, with explicit criteria including geographical diversity (e.g., 37% of AR6 authors from developing countries and economies in transition), gender balance (21% female in AR6), and inclusion of early-career researchers (68% new to IPCC in AR6). For the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), author selection concluded on August 18, 2025, enabling work to commence. Authors serve as unpaid volunteers, drawing on peer-reviewed literature without conducting original research, and selections aim to minimize conflicts of interest per IPCC principles.

Funding Mechanisms and Independence Concerns

The IPCC's funding primarily derives from regular contributions by its sponsoring organizations, the (WMO) and the (UNEP), augmented by voluntary and in-kind contributions from member governments and the UNFCCC. These resources the IPCC Secretariat in , Technical Units hosted by governments, and operational costs including meetings, production, , and participation by from developing . The IPCC Trust Fund, governed by WMO financial regulations and aligned with since revised procedures in , manages expenditures in Swiss Francs, with budgets and multi-year programmes approved by the Panel at plenary sessions. For the 2024-2027 period, the emphasizes standard costs for sessions and , drawing on pledged voluntary contributions tracked annually. Voluntary contributions have historically come from a limited pool of donors, with major shares from entities like the European Union, UNEP, and select governments; for instance, the United States provided substantial support until its contributions ceased in the 2017 federal budget under the Trump administration. In-kind support includes governments covering costs for hosting units, expert travel, and facilities, while thousands of volunteer authors, review editors, and contributors from global institutions provide unpaid labor for assessments, though their home organizations often bear related expenses. Independence concerns center on the potential for funding dependencies and intergovernmental oversight to compromise scientific objectivity, given that governments both contribute resources and approve key outputs like the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) through line-by-line negotiation. Critics, including economists and policy analysts, argue that reliance on voluntary pledges from states predisposed to aggressive mitigation policies creates incentives for reports to prioritize high-impact warming scenarios, amplifying uncertainties to bolster calls for funding and regulation while downplaying dissenting evidence or adaptive capacities. This structure, they contend, fosters a feedback loop where author selection favors researchers from grant-dependent institutions aligned with consensus views, potentially sidelining empirical critiques of model projections or natural variability influences. The IPCC maintains safeguards such as a 2011 , enforced by an independent with WMO and UNEP legal oversight, requiring disclosures from Bureau members, authors, and reviewers to preserve . Its principles reliance on peer-reviewed , transparent multi-stage and reviews, and volunteer-driven assessments free from original or prescriptions. Despite these, documented instances of SPM alterations during government sessions and the predominance of from pro-action governments have fueled demands for reforms like diversified non-governmental financing and insulating summaries from political line-edits to enhance causal detachment from donor pressures.

Report Generation Process

Scientific Literature Review and Synthesis

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conducts its review by assembling authoring teams to assess existing peer-reviewed publications on , impacts, , and , without performing original . These teams, comprising lead authors, coordinating lead authors, and contributing authors selected for expertise and regional diversity, systematically evaluate thousands of studies to identify key findings, trends, and uncertainties. The emphasizes empirical from observations, models, and paleoclimate , with priority given to peer-reviewed journal articles over , though the latter is permitted when peer-reviewed sources are unavailable, such as for socioeconomic or policy-relevant . Strict cut-off dates for inclusion—enforced to capture recent while minimizing toward the assessment cycle's end—apply to each cycle; for the Sixth Assessment (AR6), the cut-off for Working Group I was October 31, 2021. Synthesis involves integrating findings across disciplines to produce balanced summaries of the state of knowledge, using calibrated language to express confidence levels (e.g., "very high confidence" for robust evidence with high agreement) and quantified likelihoods where possible, based on statistical methods and expert judgment. Authors assess causal linkages, such as radiative forcing from greenhouse gases driving observed warming, while evaluating natural variability and model performance against empirical data; for instance, AR6 Working Group I synthesized over 14,000 peer-reviewed references to conclude that human influence has unequivocally warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land. This phase highlights areas of consensus, such as the enhanced greenhouse effect, but also notes discrepancies, including overestimation of warming rates in some climate models compared to satellite observations since 1979. Critics, including analyses from independent groups, argue that the synthesis exhibits systemic biases toward alarmist projections, often by overweighting model-based scenarios (e.g., high-emissions RCP8.5 pathways) that diverge from observed trends and underweighting empirical studies questioning sensitivity to CO2 or attributing warming partly to forcings like solar variability and cycles. For example, a 2023 of AR6 claimed selective citation of favoring worst-case outcomes, with minimal integration of peer-reviewed work on low-climate-sensitivity estimates derived from balance constraints and historical , potentially reflecting the IPCC's consensus-oriented authorship drawn predominantly from institutions aligned with prevailing anthropogenic dominance narratives. Such critiques highlight that while the process mandates comprehensiveness, the exclusion of dissenting empirical findings—evident in the low representation of skeptical authors and studies—may stem from institutional pressures in academia, where funding and publication favor conformity over causal exploration of alternative drivers. Government nominations for authors and the emphasis on "policy-relevant" synthesis further risk tilting toward scenarios supporting interventionist policies, though IPCC procedures require traceability to original sources for verification.
AspectDescriptionKey Criteria/Challenges
Literature SourcesPrimarily peer-reviewed journals; grey literature supplementalCut-off dates prevent recency bias but may exclude post-deadline empirical corrections; over-reliance on models vs. observations noted in critiques.
Synthesis MethodsExpert elicitation of evidence agreement, uncertainty quantificationCalibrated terms (e.g., "likely" >66% probability); potential for confirmation bias in weighting high-impact, alarmist studies.
Volume AssessedAR6 WG1: ~14,000 referencesDeclining coverage of total relevant literature over cycles raises completeness concerns; selective emphasis on "bad news" scenarios.

Drafting, Expert Review, and Government Approval

![Governments adopting the Summary for Policymakers][float-right] The drafting of IPCC assessment reports involves lead authors, coordinating lead authors, and contributing authors who synthesize relevant peer-reviewed scientific, technical, and socio-economic into successive drafts. The process begins with a zero-order draft to outline chapters, followed by the Draft (FOD), which is the initial comprehensive assessment. After incorporating feedback, authors the Second Order Draft (SOD) alongside the first draft of the for Policymakers (SPM). A Final Draft and final SPM are then prepared based on further . This iterative drafting ensures the content reflects the breadth of available evidence while adhering to IPCC guidelines on uncertainty and calibrated language. Expert review occurs in multiple stages to enhance scientific rigor and balance. The FOD undergoes an open review, inviting self-nominated specialists, with thousands of comments received; for instance, in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Working Group I received 23, comments on its FOD. Review editors oversee the process, ensuring authors respond to all substantive comments, which promotes transparency as comment-response compilations are publicly released post-publication. The SOD and initial SPM draft receive simultaneous review from both experts and governments, yielding even more feedback—51,387 comments for AR6 Working Group I—allowing revisions that address diverse perspectives and verify comprehensiveness. This review mechanism, while thorough, relies on voluntary participation and author judgments in prioritizing responses. Government approval primarily targets the SPM through line-by-line negotiation in IPCC plenary sessions, where representatives from member governments discuss and endorse text alongside lead authors to ensure alignment with the underlying report. This approval process aims to produce a consensus document usable for policy but has been criticized for enabling political influence, potentially diluting stronger scientific assertions to achieve unanimity, as noted in analyses of revision dynamics. In contrast, the full underlying report is accepted rather than approved line-by-line, with governments confirming its overall balance and completeness without altering content. Final endorsement occurs at the IPCC Panel level, emphasizing governmental buy-in over pure scientific autonomy.

Distinctions Between Full Reports and Summaries for Policymakers

![Governments approving the Summary for Policymakers][float-right] The full IPCC assessment reports comprise extensive volumes, often exceeding 2,000 pages per working group contribution, authored by hundreds of lead and contributing scientists who synthesize and assess thousands of peer-reviewed studies. These underlying chapters provide detailed evidence, including data, methodologies, uncertainties, and dissenting views where present, undergoing multiple rounds of expert and government review before acceptance by the IPCC plenary, a process that does not involve line-by-line negotiation. In distinction, the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is a condensed document, typically 20-40 pages long, intended to convey key policy-relevant findings to non-expert audiences such as governments and international organizations. Drafted in parallel with the full report by a subset of authors, the SPM is subjected to line-by-line approval sessions attended by representatives from IPCC member governments, who negotiate phrasing to achieve consensus while required to maintain fidelity to the underlying scientific content. This governmental approval process introduces potential divergences from the full reports, as delegates may push for wording that aligns with national interests or emphasizes certain risks over others, sometimes resulting in elevated levels or selective highlighting not fully reflective of the nuanced discussions in the chapters. For instance, in the Sixth Assessment Report's Working Group I SPM, statements on the attribution of tropical cyclone changes were critiqued for overstating influence compared to the more qualified in the underlying chapters, which noted limited evidence for detection and attribution at global scales. Critics, including climatologist Roger Pielke Jr., argue such alterations propagate by prioritizing consensus-driven narratives over empirical rigor, a concern amplified by the IPCC's institutional incentives toward alarmist framing amid pressures from funding bodies and advocacy groups. Empirical analyses of SPMs across assessment cycles reveal patterns where uncertainties are downplayed and projections presented with greater than in the full texts, potentially influencing by compressing complex into actionable but simplified directives. The IPCC principles stipulate that SPM content must be traceable to the full , yet the dynamic—evident in session transcripts and post-approval comparisons—can lead to causal over-attribution of observed trends to anthropogenic factors without equivalent of variability emphasized in chapters. This distinction underscores a tension between scientific comprehensiveness and political , with the full reports serving as the primary repository for verifiable data and the SPM functioning more as a distilled, government-vetted executive abstract.

Core Assessment Reports

First to Third Assessments (1990–2001)

The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the IPCC was completed in August 1990, marking the organization's initial comprehensive evaluation of climate science. It comprised contributions from three working groups: Working Group I on the scientific assessment of climate change, Working Group II on potential impacts, and Working Group III on mitigation options, supplemented by an overview and a summary for policymakers. Key findings included evidence of a global mean surface temperature increase of approximately 0.3°C to 0.6°C over the preceding century, with the enhanced greenhouse effect attributed primarily to human-induced emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), which was identified as responsible for over half of the total greenhouse gas forcing. The report projected future warming under business-as-usual scenarios, emphasizing the need for international cooperation, and influenced the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. The Second Assessment Report (SAR), finalized in 1995, built upon the FAR by incorporating updated observations and modeling. Its Summary for Policymakers stated that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate," representing a shift toward greater confidence in anthropogenic contributions compared to the FAR. The SAR analyzed proxy data indicating regional surface temperature rises and projected global mean temperature increases of 1°C to 3.5°C by 2100 under various emissions scenarios, while highlighting socio-economic dimensions and vulnerabilities. This report provided foundational scientific input for the Kyoto Protocol negotiations in 1997, underscoring emission reduction strategies. The Third Assessment (TAR), released in 2001, further strengthened attribution statements, concluding with medium to high that most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years was due to increases in concentrations from activities. It synthesized extensive observational showing rising atmospheric CO₂ levels from 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to over 370 ppm by 2000, alongside analyses of climate models projecting 1.4°C to 5.8°C warming by 2100. The evaluated impacts on physical and biological systems, noting of climate-driven changes, and distinguished between full technical reports and government-approved summaries to balance scientific rigor with . These early assessments established the IPCC's role in synthesizing peer-reviewed literature but faced critiques for reliance on models with limited empirical validation at the time, as subsequent observations showed slower warming rates than some mid-range projections.

Fourth and Fifth Assessments (2007–2014)

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), titled Climate Change 2007, consisted of three working group contributions and a synthesis report, released between and 2007. The Working Group I report, approved on , 2007, in , assessed the physical science basis, concluding that eleven of the last twelve years (1995–2006) were warmer than any preceding since 1850, global sea level rose at 1.8 per year from 1961 to 2003, and observed warming was very likely (>90% probability) attributable to the observed increase in anthropogenic concentrations. The Working Group II report, finalized in Brussels on April 6, 2007, evaluated impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, projecting that 20–30% of species assessed would be at increased extinction risk with 1.5–2.5°C warming, and estimating 75–250 million more people affected by water scarcity in Africa by 2020. Working Group III, approved in Bangkok on May 4, 2007, addressed mitigation, estimating that global greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by up to 60% below 2000 levels by 2050 at costs of less than 3% of global GDP annually. The Synthesis Report, adopted in Valencia on November 17, 2007, integrated these findings, stating that delayed emissions reductions would increase risks of severe impacts and narrow mitigation options. Post-release, errors such as unsubstantiated projections of Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035—sourced from a non-peer-reviewed World Wildlife Fund —prompted IPCC acknowledgment of procedural lapses in gray literature vetting, though the organization maintained the core conclusions remained robust. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), 2014, followed a similar , with working group reports issued from September 2013 to April 2014 and the synthesis report approved in Copenhagen on October 31, 2014, assessing over 30,000 scientific publications. I, released September 27, 2013, in Stockholm, affirmed that the total stored in the had increased, with over 90% going , and raised the likelihood of influence on observed warming since 1951 to extremely likely (>95%). It noted a slowdown in surface warming rates from 1998 to 2012 (0.05–0.10°C per decade versus 0.12°C per decade from 1951–2012), attributing this primarily to internal variability and reduced solar irradiance rather than a failure of models or diminished human forcing. II, approved March 31, 2014, in Yokohama, updated risks, indicating that continued warming would amplify threats to food production, with crop yield reductions in low-latitude regions potentially exceeding 10% by mid-century under high-emission scenarios. III, finalized April 12, 2014, in Berlin, concluded that limiting warming to below 2°C was feasible with substantial emissions reductions, projecting mitigation costs of 0.06% annual GDP growth loss by 2100 for a 50% chance of staying below 2°C. The synthesis emphasized that influence on the was clear, with unprecedented rates of change requiring urgent adaptation and mitigation to avoid dangerous interference. Discussions of the warming slowdown drew scrutiny for potentially understating model-observation discrepancies in some analyses, though IPCC defended the assessment as consistent with long-term trends and natural variability.

Sixth Assessment Report (2018–2023)

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle spanned from 2015 to 2023, with core contributions developed through literature reviews involving over 14,000 scientific papers for Working Group I alone. The report's three working group contributions and synthesis report were approved in phases: Working Group I on August 9, 2021; Working Group II on February 28, 2022; Working Group III on April 4, 2022; and the Synthesis Report on March 20, 2023. Unlike prior assessments, AR6 incorporated refined methodology refinements from a 2019 report on handling short-lived climate forcers and updated guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, emphasizing integrated assessment models for mitigation pathways. Working Group I's "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis" synthesized physical climate data, concluding with high confidence that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have caused approximately 1.1°C of global surface temperature rise since 1850–1900, with the full range assessed at 0.8°C to 1.3°C. It projected that, without rapid emissions reductions, global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the near term (2021–2040), with a greater than 50% probability under high-emissions scenarios. The report highlighted increased attribution of extremes like heatwaves to anthropogenic forcing, but noted persistent uncertainties in cloud feedbacks and aerosol effects, where equilibrium climate sensitivity was narrowed to 2.5°C to 4.0°C (likely range). Working Group II's "Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" evaluated observed impacts across sectors, asserting high in adverse effects on ecosystems and human systems, including and reduced in vulnerable regions. It documented empirical evidence of compound events, such as concurrent droughts and heatwaves, becoming more frequent, while stressing adaptation limits at higher warming levels (e.g., irreversible coral reef decline beyond 1.5°C). Projections indicated potential for 3.3–3.6 billion people facing chronic water scarcity by mid-century under current trajectories. Working Group III's "Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change" assessed pathways to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, estimating that global net anthropogenic GHG emissions must peak before 2025 and decline 43% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels for 1.5°C compatibility. It emphasized feasibility of net-zero CO2 by 2050 via renewables, electrification, and carbon removal, but highlighted challenges like land-use competition and the need for behavioral changes, with cost estimates for mitigation ranging from 1–3.5% of global GDP annually through 2050. The Synthesis Report integrated these findings, underscoring that limiting warming to 1.5°C requires transformative changes across , , and economic systems, with increasing adaptation costs and risks of tipping points like permafrost thaw. It reported that current policies imply 2.8°C warming by , based on integrated models. AR6 has drawn critiques for selective emphasis on model projections over observational trends in areas like disaster losses and tropical cyclones, where claims of increasing intensity were rated medium confidence despite stagnant global economic adjusted for and wealth growth. Independent reviews, such as by the Climate Intelligence group, identified biases in chapter selections favoring alarmist interpretations and underrepresenting dissenting empirical studies on sensitivity and extremes. These concerns arise amid AR6's reliance on self-reinforcing academic literature, where institutional pressures may amplify consensus on causality while downplaying natural variability contributions documented in paleoclimate records.

Seventh Assessment Cycle Planning (2023–Ongoing)

The seventh assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commenced formally in 2023, following the completion of the sixth assessment , with the of a new IPCC , Jim Skea of the , and the renewal of the IPCC Bureau and on National Inventories (TFI) Bureau. This cycle adheres to the IPCC's established of producing comprehensive assessment reports every 5 to 7 years, incorporating contributions from its three Working Groups on the physical science basis of climate change, impacts and , and , respectively, alongside a synthesis . The cycle's structure emphasizes synthesis of peer-reviewed literature published since the prior assessment, with focused on enhancing regional relevance, addressing emerging topics such as cities and short-lived climate forcers, and increasing author diversity. In January 2024, at its 60th session, the IPCC Plenary approved the overall work programme for the cycle, including outlines for core Working Group reports and a special report on , marking the initial scoping phase where member governments and observer organizations submitted views on report topics and timelines. By August 2024, at the 62nd session in Sofia, Bulgaria, the Plenary endorsed detailed outlines for the first two products: Working Group I's assessment of the physical science basis and the special report on cities, which will examine trends, challenges, and opportunities for urban areas amid climate variability, including adaptation strategies and co-benefits with sustainable development. These outlines prioritize integration of recent empirical data on observed changes, model projections, and policy-relevant gaps identified in the sixth cycle, while deliberations continue on the full timeline, balancing urgency for timely delivery against inclusive author recruitment and review processes. Author selection for the Working Group reports concluded in August 2025, with over 660 scientists from 90 countries appointed, representing a record proportion—approximately 45%—from institutions in the Global South, including , , and , to broaden geographic and disciplinary perspectives beyond the predominantly Northern Hemisphere authorship of prior cycles. The selection process involved nominations from governments and organizations, evaluated by Bureau members for expertise in areas like paleoclimate data, attribution science, and socioeconomic impacts, with an emphasis on early-career researchers and gender balance. Drafting is slated to begin in late 2025 or early 2026, following government-approved outlines, with full reports projected for completion by 2029, though the synthesis report's finalization may extend to 2030 amid ongoing negotiations on accelerated timelines to inform post-Paris Agreement policy cycles. Planning documents highlight intentions to refine uncertainty communication and empirical validation protocols, drawing lessons from sixth-cycle critiques on model over-reliance, though specific methodological updates remain under Bureau review.

Additional Publications

Special and Methodology Reports

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces Special Reports to provide in-depth assessments on specific topics of high , distinct from the broader scope of its core Assessment Reports. These reports are initiated either upon request from the Framework Convention on (UNFCCC) or through decisions by the IPCC Bureau and Panel, focusing on issues such as technological options, sectoral impacts, or threshold scenarios. Like Assessment Reports, Special Reports undergo multiple rounds of and , with their Summaries for Policymakers (SPMs) approved line-by-line by IPCC member governments to alignment with underlying scientific content. Notable Special Reports include the 1997 report on The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, which evaluated differential regional effects of climate variability. In 1999, the IPCC issued Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, examining aviation's contributions to radiative forcing. The 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios outlined future greenhouse gas emission trajectories used in subsequent modeling, while the companion Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry report addressed carbon sinks and sources in terrestrial systems. Later examples encompass the 2005 Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, assessing geological sequestration feasibility; the 2011 Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, evaluating low-carbon energy pathways; and the 2012 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, focusing on vulnerability to weather extremes. More recent reports from the Sixth Assessment cycle include the 2018 Global Warming of 1.5°C, which analyzed pathways to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, published on October 8, 2018; the 2019 Climate Change and Land, released August 8, 2019, covering desertification, food security, and land-climate interactions; and the 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, addressing marine and polar system changes. A Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is planned for the Seventh Assessment cycle, with scoping completed in 2024. Methodology Reports from the IPCC primarily offer standardized guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting Parties to the UNFCCC in reporting emissions and removals consistently. The foundational 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories provided the initial framework across energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land use, and waste sectors. This was substantially revised in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, incorporating improved scientific understanding and methodological refinements for greater accuracy in Tier 1, 2, and 3 approaches. A 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines updated specific emission factors and calculation procedures without altering the core structure, ensuring continuity for ongoing inventories. An upcoming 2027 IPCC Methodology Report on Inventories for Short-lived Climate Forcers will extend guidance to non-CO2 gases like methane and black carbon, excluding secondary aerosols, to enhance tracking of near-term warming agents. These reports are developed by the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, emphasizing transparency, comparability, and verifiability in data collection and modeling.

Technical Support and Guidelines

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintains Technical Support Units (TSUs) for its Working Groups I, II, and III, as well as for the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), to provide essential scientific, technical, administrative, logistical, and editorial assistance in report preparation and coordination. These units operate under the supervision of the respective Working Group or Task Force Bureaus and are hosted by institutions such as universities or research organizations, with funding from host governments and voluntary contributions. For instance, the Working Group I TSU, based at the University of Bern, supports physical science assessments, while the TFI TSU, hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) since 1999, aids in developing inventory methodologies. TSUs facilitate the IPCC's assessment process by managing expert nominations, organizing author meetings, handling review cycles, and ensuring procedural compliance, including the documentation of responses to expert and government comments. They also support capacity-building efforts, such as training for authors and reviewers from developing countries, to enhance global participation in IPCC activities. Recent expansions, like additions to the I TSU in and as of 2024, aim to bolster operational efficiency amid increasing demands for the Seventh Assessment cycle. In parallel, the IPCC issues procedural and methodological guidelines to standardize contributions and ensure transparency. The IPCC Procedures outline tasks for lead authors (who draft sections), coordinating lead authors (who oversee integration), contributing authors (who supply data), review editors (who verify comment handling without altering text), and expert reviewers (who provide substantive feedback across rounds). Review editors, for example, must remain independent from authorship in their assigned material to maintain objectivity. All substantive comments must be addressed, with authors retaining final responsibility for content. Methodological guidelines focus primarily on greenhouse gas inventories, with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines providing tiered approaches (from basic default methods to detailed country-specific models) for estimating emissions and removals by sources and sinks. The 2019 Refinement updates these without replacing framework, incorporating refinements based on improved and peer-reviewed while emphasizing good practice for uncertainty assessment and key category identification to prioritize inventory efforts. An upcoming 2027 Methodology Report will extend guidance to short-lived climate forcers, excluding secondary anthropogenic substances, to support more comprehensive emissions tracking under UNFCCC obligations. These guidelines underpin national reporting but have faced critique for potential over-reliance on modeled defaults in data-scarce regions, though they prioritize empirical validation where available.

Methodological Foundations

Reliance on Climate Models and Projections

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs general circulation models (GCMs), along with Earth system models, as the primary tools for generating climate projections in its assessment reports. These models solve coupled equations representing atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and biogeochemical processes to simulate responses to greenhouse gas forcing under standardized scenarios, such as those from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), including CMIP5 and CMIP6 phases, are averaged to derive central estimates and uncertainty ranges for metrics like global mean surface temperature rise, with AR6 projecting 1.5°C warming likely by 2030–2052 relative to 1850–1900 under low-emission scenarios. Evaluations of model against observations reveal systematic biases, particularly overestimation of recent warming rates. and surface from to 2022 show models projecting, on average, 43% faster global warming than observed, with discrepancies attributed to excessive sensitivity to CO2 in many simulations. Similarly, CMIP5 models exhibited about 16% faster surface air increases than observations since , even after adjustments for internal variability and forcing differences. CMIP6 models display even hotter biases, with equilibrium (ECS) estimates often exceeding empirical constraints from paleoclimate and , leading AR6 to widen the likely ECS range to 2.5–4.0°C from AR5's 1.5–4.5°C while acknowledging persistent high-end outliers. Key limitations undermine the reliability of these projections, including inadequate representation of cloud feedbacks, aerosol-cloud interactions, and decadal variability, which contribute to error bars spanning 50% or more in regional precipitation and extreme event forecasts. Empirical validation efforts, such as hindcasting historical climates, indicate models struggle with phenomena like the observed lack of enhanced tropospheric warming in the tropics (the "hot spot") and slower-than-projected Arctic sea ice decline rates post-2007. While some studies affirm broad alignment in global trends by weighting models toward observational constraints, critics highlight that tuning to 20th-century data does not guarantee out-of-sample predictive skill, as unforced variability and unresolved sub-grid processes amplify projection spread. IPCC reports emphasize probabilistic framing to convey , yet reliance on model-derived projections for policy-relevant summaries has drawn for downplaying validation shortfalls relative to empirical . For instance, AR6's high-confidence attribution of extremes to influence often extrapolates from models exhibiting known warm biases, contrasting with observations where factors explain much short-term variability. Independent assessments suggest that incorporating balance constraints could narrow ECS to 1.5–3.0°C, implying less severe warming than model outputs, though IPCC ensembles retain broader ranges to encompass diverse simulations.

Handling of Uncertainty and Empirical Validation

The IPCC employs a structured framework for characterizing uncertainties, as detailed in its Uncertainty Guidance Notes for assessment reports such as AR5. This approach distinguishes between levels—assessed as very low, low, medium, high, or very high based on the type, amount, , and consistency of , alongside agreement—and likelihood terms for well-defined outcomes, including "likely" (66–100% probability), "very likely" (90–100%), "extremely likely" (>95%), and "virtually certain" (>99%). Quantitative ranges, such as or probability functions, are used where permit, while qualitative descriptions to complex systems like feedback processes. Lead authors must provide "traceable accounts" in reports, explicitly linking uncertainty statements to underlying from observations, models, paleoclimate , and physical understanding to ensure transparency and consistency across working groups. In practice, this framework is applied to projections by incorporating model ensembles (e.g., CMIP5 and CMIP6) that quantify spread from structural differences, internal variability, and forcings, often presenting warming as medians with likely ranges. For equilibrium (ECS)—the long-term global response to doubled atmospheric CO₂—AR6 narrowed the likely range to 2.5–4.0°C (very likely 2.0–5.1°C) compared to the 1.5–4.5°C of prior reports, attributing persistent breadth to unresolved feedbacks and paleoclimate proxy interpretations, despite increased observational . Transient climate response (TCR), more relevant for near-term projections, is assessed as likely 1.4–2.5°C, with uncertainties propagated into -based outcomes like those under (SSPs). However, tail risks—such as low-sensitivity outcomes below 2°C or high-end amplification from tipping elements—are acknowledged but receive varying emphasis, with formal expert elicitation recommended for rare events. Empirical validation of IPCC projections involves hindcasting models against historical observations to test in simulating past climates, including 20th-century warming, sea-level rise, and extremes, before extrapolating forward. AR5 Chapter 9 evaluates CMIP5 models as generally skillful in reproducing observed trends but overestimation of warming in warm temperature extremes and regional precipitation patterns. Direct validation of future projections remains by their prospective , yet comparisons reveal discrepancies: peer-reviewed analyses indicate that many CMIP models overestimate recent global and tropospheric warming relative to satellite (e.g., UAH, RSS) and surface datasets, with simulated rates exceeding observations by factors linked to forcing and internal variability underestimation. A study attributes part of this to overstated volcanic cooling in models, suggesting human-induced warming since industrialization may be lower than ensemble means imply. Further scrutiny of CMIP6 reveals a "hot model" subset projecting up to 0.7°C excess warming by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, prompting calls to downweight such models in policy-relevant assessments rather than averaging indiscriminately, as this biases impact estimates upward. Observed global surface warming since 1970 aligns with the lower half of IPCC ranges after forcing adjustments, but systematic model-observation gaps persist in metrics like mid-tropospheric temperatures over the tropics, where projections exceed data by over 100% in some cases. These findings underscore challenges in empirical grounding, as model validation relies heavily on tuned parameters and assumes structural adequacy, potentially understating deep uncertainties from chaotic dynamics and unmodeled processes. While IPCC reports integrate multiple lines of evidence to build confidence, the broad ECS range despite decades of data accumulation has led to critiques that consensus-driven assessments resist narrowing toward observationally constrained lower values, reflecting tensions between model fidelity and real-world causal realism.

Major Controversies and Scientific Critiques

Documented Errors and Retractions

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintains a protocol for addressing alleged errors, requiring by the relevant Bureau before issuing formal errata or corrigenda for verified factual inaccuracies in its assessment reports. While most involve typographical or minor technical issues, several substantive errors in earlier reports drew significant , leading to acknowledgments and amendments. These incidents, particularly following the Climategate revelations, prompted reviews of the IPCC's processes and source standards. A prominent error appeared in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Working Group II contribution, published in 2007, which stated in Section 10.6.2 that "glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high." This claim was not supported by peer-reviewed literature but derived from a 2005 World Wildlife Fund report citing anecdotal interview data rather than rigorous scientific modeling. On January 20, 2010, the IPCC issued an official statement admitting the projection was erroneous, emphasizing that it did not reflect the underlying scientific consensus on Himalayan glacier retreat driven by observed warming trends. The error stemmed from inadequate verification during the report's approval process, though the IPCC maintained it did not undermine broader findings on regional ice loss. Another correction in AR4 involved an overstated vulnerability assessment for the Netherlands. The Technical Summary and other sections implied that 55% of the country's land area lies below sea level, heightening perceived flood risks from sea-level rise. In reality, only 26% of the Netherlands is below mean sea level, with the remaining portion of the 55% figure attributable to areas susceptible to riverine flooding rather than direct submersion. Following a 2010 inquiry by the Dutch environmental assessment agency (PBL), the IPCC concurred with the clarification and updated the report's wording to distinguish flood-prone areas from those below sea level, issuing an erratum to reflect the accurate risk breakdown. This adjustment highlighted challenges in synthesizing national data for global reports but did not alter projections of increasing coastal threats under continued emissions. Subsequent reports, such as the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), have accumulated errata lists primarily for minor issues like figure misalignments, data transcription errors, or clarifications in uncertainty ranges, with over 100 corrections compiled for AR6 Working Group I alone by 2023. For instance, AR6 WGII corrigenda addressed spelling errors in FAQs and projection adjustments in impact maps, but no large-scale retractions equivalent to the AR4 cases were required. Critics have alleged additional unsubstantiated claims, such as exaggerated African crop yield declines in AR4 (e.g., up to 90% reductions in Sahel rain-fed agriculture by 2020, based on limited modeling not representative continent-wide), though the IPCC has not formally retracted these, defending them as indicative of potential risks under high-emissions scenarios rather than precise forecasts. Overall, while the IPCC's error-correction mechanism has processed hundreds of claims since AR4, substantiated retractions remain rare, often confined to isolated projections unsupported by primary sources.

Claims of Political Bias in Consensus Formation

Critics have argued that the IPCC's consensus formation process, particularly the negotiation and approval of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM), allows undue political influence from governments, potentially prioritizing policy agendas over scientific evidence. The SPM undergoes line-by-line approval by member governments during plenary sessions, where delegates can negotiate wording to align with national interests, sometimes resulting in dilutions or amplifications of the underlying assessment reports drafted by scientists. This governmental veto power has led to claims that the final consensus reflects negotiated compromises rather than unadulterated scientific agreement, as evidenced by documented instances where SPM statements were altered to avoid specifying human causation or to emphasize urgency without full empirical backing from the technical chapters. A prominent example of perceived politicization occurred in 2005 when NOAA hurricane specialist Landsea resigned his as an reviewer for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment (AR4). Landsea cited statements by IPCC Working Group I co-chair John Houghton at a , linking increased hurricane activity directly to anthropogenic global warming in a manner Landsea viewed as unsubstantiated and politically motivated, undermining the panel's commitment to objective . In his open letter, Landsea expressed concern that such advocacy signaled a shift toward preconceived agendas, eroding trust in the process's impartiality. Further claims target the opacity in IPCC author selection, which lacks predefined criteria or full transparency, fostering allegations of and ideological . The 2010 InterAcademy , commissioned by the IPCC following AR4 controversies, highlighted that the absence of a rigorous, documented selection raises legitimate questions about potential favoritism toward researchers aligned with alarmist views, as lead authors disproportionately cite their own prior work and that of a narrow network. Critics, including Ross McKitrick, have analyzed citation patterns showing self-reinforcement among a core group, suggesting the consensus emerges from an echo chamber rather than broad empirical synthesis. The 2009 Climategate incident, involving leaked emails from IPCC-contributing at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Unit, fueled accusations of orchestrated suppression of dissenting views to maintain consensus. Emails revealed discussions among lead authors about withholding from critics, manipulating proxy reconstructions to "hide the decline" in temperatures, and influencing journal editors to reject skeptical papers, actions interpreted by detractors as of political maneuvering to anthropogenic warming narratives. Although subsequent inquiries cleared researchers of , they acknowledged lapses in transparency and , which critics argue perpetuated a biased insulated from . These episodes underscore ongoing debates about whether the IPCC's structure inherently favors consensus-driven advocacy over falsifiable science.

Discrepancies Between Predictions and Observed Outcomes

Several analyses of IPCC assessment reports' temperature projections reveal that climate models have tended to overestimate warming rates relative to observations. For example, CMIP5 models, underpinning the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), simulated global surface warming approximately 16% faster than observed trends from 1970 onward, with the divergence partly attributed to overestimated historical forcings or internal variability but persisting in hindcasts. Independent evaluations using satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperatures from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) dataset show CMIP6 models, used in AR6, overestimating warming by about 30% through 2023 and by a factor of roughly two in the tropical troposphere compared to observations since 1979. These discrepancies are corroborated in peer-reviewed comparisons, such as those highlighting systematic model biases in equilibrium climate sensitivity, where AR4 and AR5 projections exceeded realized warming by up to 40% in some metrics when adjusted for emissions scenarios. Projections of extreme weather have also shown mismatches with empirical . The IPCC's AR5 and AR6 reports anticipated increases in tropical cyclone (hurricane) and intensity linked to warming, yet global observations indicate no detectable long-term trends in either metric since the late 19th , with U.S. landfall showing no increase per IPCC synthesis. NOAA assessments confirm low in attributing observed Atlantic hurricane changes to anthropogenic forcing, as natural variability dominates detectable signals amid stable global accumulated cyclone energy. Similarly, while AR6 attributes rising agricultural and ecological droughts to human influence with medium , global drought indices like the Palmer Drought Severity Index reveal no widespread intensification; instead, trends are regionally variable, with some areas experiencing reductions due to CO2 fertilization effects enhancing plant water efficiency. Sea-level rise projections exhibit overestimation in many locales. IPCC scenarios from AR5 projected average global rates exceeding observations by about 2 /year when compared to tide gauge and altimetry through 2020, with local analyses finding most acceleration signals statistically insignificant and models biased upward due to unaccounted natural variability or ice dynamics. A global of AR5 projections against 1993–2023 satellite altimetry confirms that while rise continues at 3–4 /year, it tracks lower-end estimates rather than central tendencies, particularly excluding high-end Antarctic contributions that have not materialized as . These gaps underscore challenges in model validation, where empirical outcomes often align better with lower-sensitivity scenarios than multimodel means, prompting critiques that IPCC summaries underemphasize such hindcast failures amid institutional pressures favoring alarmist framings from academia-influenced sources. Nonetheless, core attribution of observed warming to greenhouse gases remains robust, though projection reliability for policy timescales requires weighting toward observationally constrained models.

External Influences and Criticisms

Governmental and Advocacy Group Impacts

The IPCC's Summary for Policymakers (SPM) undergoes a distinctive approval where representatives from its 195 member governments engage in line-by-line negotiations to endorse the text, ensuring it reflects a consensus deemed policy-relevant. This governmental endorsement, distinct from the scientific authoring of full assessment reports, allows delegates to propose changes that must be consistent with the underlying chapters but can emphasize or soften phrasing to accommodate diverse national priorities. Critics contend this mechanism introduces political filtering, as governments—often prioritizing economic or diplomatic interests—may dilute uncertainties or amplify urgency in ways not fully aligned with the technical volumes. Such influences have manifested in documented negotiation tensions; for instance, during the approval of the AR5 Working Group III SPM section on international cooperation in April 2014, delegates debated revisions that balanced scientific findings on mitigation costs with political narratives on equity and feasibility, resulting in text perceived by some as compromised for broader acceptability. In the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle, virtual approval sessions from 2021 onward expanded delegation sizes—averaging increases from AR5 in-person meetings—but did not uniformly enhance substantive engagement, with participation varying by country capacity and potentially skewing outcomes toward well-resourced nations. Analyses of these processes highlight how governmental involvement can absorb external political pressures, such as demands for equity from developing countries or restraint from fossil fuel-dependent states, sometimes leading to SPM language that prioritizes consensus over granular empirical validation. Advocacy groups exert indirect impacts by submitting expert reviews during report drafting and lobbying national delegates ahead of approval sessions, influencing the framing of key issues like emission pathways or adaptation needs. Environmental organizations have advocated for retaining strong warnings on tipping points during AR6 SPM negotiations, while industry-aligned groups have pushed back against projections implying rapid decarbonization. However, the mediated nature of this input—filtered through state representatives—limits direct advocacy sway, though it contributes to a broader politicization where SPM outcomes reflect negotiated compromises rather than unadulterated scientific synthesis. This dynamic has drawn scrutiny for potentially eroding source credibility, as governmental and advocacy pressures may favor alarmist tones conducive to funding or regulatory agendas over dispassionate causal analysis.

Treatment of Skeptical and Alternative Perspectives

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process prioritizes the synthesis of peer-reviewed literature toward a consensus view on anthropogenic climate change, but critics contend that this framework systematically marginalizes skeptical and alternative perspectives, such as those emphasizing natural variability, solar influences, or lower climate sensitivity. , a lead author on IPCC reports including the 1995 Second Assessment, has argued that the IPCC's executive summaries often misrepresent the underlying science by omitting dissenting interpretations and emphasizing alarmist projections to align with policy demands, despite the full reports containing more nuanced discussions of uncertainties. Similarly, former IPCC participant Judith Curry has critiqued the process for fostering overconfidence through selective framing of uncertainties, where alternative hypotheses receive diminished weight or "low confidence" ratings without proportional empirical rebuttal, thereby discouraging dissensus in favor of a unified narrative. Author selection for IPCC working groups has been accused of inherent bias, with nominations dominated by governments and institutions aligned with the consensus, effectively excluding prominent skeptics. A 2008 analysis by Ross McKitrick highlighted cronyism in the process, noting that skeptical scientists are rarely nominated or selected, leading to assessments that undervalue critiques of model-based projections or data adjustments. This selection dynamic, combined with the IPCC's reliance on "grey literature" from advocacy-aligned sources while scrutinizing peer-reviewed skeptical work, contributes to claims of an echo chamber effect, where natural forcings like cosmic rays or ocean cycles—supported by papers from researchers like Henrik Svensmark—are afforded minimal consideration in attribution statements. The 2009 Climategate email disclosures from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit, involving key IPCC contributors like Phil Jones and Michael Mann, revealed instances of efforts to suppress dissenting publications and manipulate peer review. Emails discussed strategies to "blackball" skeptical journals, withhold data from critics, and prioritize consensus-building over open debate, such as Jones's reference to deleting emails to avoid freedom-of-information requests and coordinating to exclude papers challenging the hockey-stick reconstruction. Although subsequent inquiries cleared scientists of fraud, they acknowledged lapses in transparency and openness to alternative views, fueling ongoing skepticism about the IPCC's impartiality. Critics like Lindzen argue this internal culture reinforces the marginalization of non-alarmist perspectives, potentially undermining the panel's claim to comprehensive assessment.

Allegations of Industry Capture and Funding Conflicts

Allegations of by fossil fuel interests on the IPCC have centered on the approval of the for Policymakers (SPM), where delegates from oil-producing nations reportedly lobbied to moderate on fossil fuel phase-out. During the preparation of the Sixth Assessment Report's Working Group III contribution in 2022, delegates from including , , and successfully advocated for changes, such as replacing "unequivocal need to phase-out" with "phase down" for unabated fossil fuels, and emphasizing carbon capture technologies as options. Leaked documents ahead of COP26 in 2021 revealed efforts by coal, oil, and meat-producing nations to weaken key findings on emissions . Such interventions reflect the IPCC's , wherein SPMs require consensus approval by 195 member , granting significant leverage to fossil-dependent states. Environmental advocacy groups have highlighted specific author selections as conflicts, notably the inclusion of senior employees from ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco as lead authors or reviewers in IPCC reports, despite the panel's 2011 Conflict of Interest (COI) policy requiring disclosure of financial ties that could impair objectivity. In 2017, over 100 civil society organizations urged the IPCC to exclude such individuals, arguing their corporate affiliations—linked to high greenhouse gas emissions—undermined credibility, though the IPCC deemed their expertise exceptional under policy exceptions allowing participation if no suitable alternatives exist. The COI policy, adopted following 2010 recommendations from the InterAcademy Council amid post-Climategate scrutiny, mandates annual disclosures but has faced criticism for lacking enforcement mechanisms or public transparency on recusals. Conversely, some analysts contend that the IPCC exhibits favoring narratives, potentially influenced by flows to that prioritize alarmist projections benefiting subsidies and transitions. The IPCC's Special on Sources and (2011) drew scrutiny for an author with undisclosed ties to a renewable firm, raising questions about in assessing deployment potentials. Critics, including skeptics, argue that —totaling approximately 10-15 million USD per assessment cycle from voluntary contributions by member states—channels resources toward models emphasizing rapid decarbonization via renewables, sidelining alternatives like nuclear or , though direct industry capture by sectors remains less documented than claims. These perspectives often stem from outlets questioning the IPCC's monopoly on consensus synthesis, attributing over-reliance on self-assessed author to entrenched academic incentives.

Influence, Reception, and Legacy

Role in Shaping Global Policies and Economics

![IPCC adoption of Summary for Policymakers][float-right] The (IPCC) has profoundly influenced international climate agreements by providing synthesized scientific assessments that underpin negotiations under the (UNFCCC). Its Second Assessment , released in 1995, informed the adopted on , 1997, which entered into force on , 2005, and mandated developed countries to reduce by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels during the 2008-2012 commitment period. Similarly, the IPCC's Fifth and Sixth Assessment contributed to the , adopted in 2015 and effective from , 2016, which established goals to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, through nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from participating nations. At the national and regional levels, IPCC reports have guided the implementation of economic policies aimed at emissions reduction, including carbon pricing mechanisms endorsed in its assessments as effective tools for mitigation. By 2023, carbon taxes and emissions trading systems covered approximately 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions, up from 7% a decade earlier, with systems like the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), launched in 2005, directly drawing on IPCC-derived emission targets. These instruments have generated revenues exceeding hundreds of billions annually, often reinvested into low-carbon infrastructure, while IPCC scenarios emphasize their role in achieving net-zero pathways. The economic ramifications of IPCC-influenced policies extend to substantial reallocations of global resources, with clean investments reaching $2 in 2024, surpassing and reflecting policy-driven shifts toward renewables. financial support for renewable power in G20 alone amounted to at least $168 billion in 2023, supporting subsidies, credits, and mandates aligned with IPCC recommendations. However, these policies have imposed costs, including higher prices from carbon and redirected fiscal spending, with IPCC projections indicating that stringent could require 2-6% of global GDP annually by , though actual outcomes depend on technological and behavioral responses. Critics, including economists, argue that such interventions risk inefficient if based on overstated climate sensitivities or underestimated adaptation potentials, but proponents cite avoided estimated in trillions as justification.

Endorsements from Scientific Bodies and Awards

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) received the in , jointly awarded with former U.S. , for "their efforts to build up and disseminate greater about man-made , and to lay for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." In , the IPCC was named co-laureate of the Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity, recognizing its contributions to advancing understanding of and supporting efforts, with the including a €1 million prize shared with other recipients. That same year, it was also selected as co-laureate of the North-South Prize by the Council of Europe, honoring outstanding commitments to promoting North-South partnership and sustainable development in response to global challenges like . Several prominent scientific bodies have issued statements endorsing the IPCC's core assessments on human-induced . The Royal of , in its 2001 guide "The of ," explicitly endorsed the IPCC as "the most reliable source of on " and that recent warming is attributable to human influences based on IPCC analyses. Similarly, the U.S. has aligned with IPCC findings through reports and statements, such as its 2010 publication emphasizing the of anthropogenic warming consistent with IPCC syntheses. Joint declarations from multiple national academies further reflect this support. In 2005, science academies from the G8 nations plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa issued a statement endorsing IPCC conclusions that climate change is real, primarily caused by human activities, and requires urgent mitigation and adaptation measures. The American Statistical Association, in a 2007 endorsement, affirmed the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report findings on observed warming trends and greenhouse gas contributions from human sources. These endorsements typically focus on the IPCC's summary of physical science basis for warming rather than all policy recommendations or projections.

Broader Critiques from Economists and Policy Analysts

Economist Richard Tol, a former lead author for IPCC economics chapters, has critiqued the panel's Working Group II reports for overstating negative climate impacts and misrepresenting supporting data. In 2014, Tol withdrew his support for the Fifth Assessment Report's WGII Summary for Policymakers draft, describing it as alarmist and inconsistent with the presented graphs, particularly in downplaying potential positive effects of mild warming while amplifying extremes without sufficient evidence. Tol's own meta-analysis of economic studies indicated net positive global impacts from warming up to 2.2°C, a finding the IPCC initially cited but later adjusted amid controversy over data handling. Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus, developer of the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, has highlighted that IPCC-endorsed targets like limiting warming to 1.5°C via net-zero emissions by 2050 exceed economically optimal paths, imposing welfare losses greater than inaction. Nordhaus's simulations project that such aggressive policies could reduce global GDP by 2-4% relative to baseline scenarios, while his recommended carbon tax—starting at around $35 per ton of CO2 and rising gradually—balances marginal abatement costs against damages estimated at 2-3% of GDP by 2100 under moderate warming. This contrasts with IPCC projections relying on higher damage functions and lower discount rates that amplify future costs. Policy analysts including those at the Copenhagen Consensus Center, led by Bjørn Lomborg, argue that IPCC-driven policies prioritize mitigation over cost-effective alternatives, with the Paris Agreement's commitments projected to cost $1-2 trillion annually through 2030 for minimal temperature reduction (about 0.17°C by 2100). Lomborg advocates reallocating funds to research, adaptation, and poverty alleviation, citing benefit-cost ratios where $1 spent on green energy R&D yields up to $11 in long-term emissions reductions versus $0.10-$0.50 for direct cuts. Critics like Lomborg contend IPCC summaries emphasize high-end scenarios, sidelining integrated assessment models showing adaptation and innovation mitigate most damages at lower cost.

References

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