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Popeye (missile)
Popeye (missile)
Popeye (missile)
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The Popeye (Hebrew: פופאי) is a family of air-to-surface missiles developed and in use by Israel, of which several types have been developed for Israeli and export users. A long-range submarine-launched cruise missile variant of the Popeye Turbo has been speculated as being employed in Israel's submarine-based nuclear forces.[1] The United States operated the Popeye under a different designation according to US naming conventions as the AGM-142 Have Nap.

Key Information

Design

[edit]

The Popeye is designed for precision attack against large targets from stand off ranges. The standard Popeye and smaller Popeye-Lite are powered by a single-stage solid rocket. Rafael offered a Popeye Turbo air launched variant featuring a jet engine and folding wings for a UK competition specifying a cruise missile with range of at least 320 km (200 mi) in 1994; publicly exposing a lowest possible maximum range for that variant.[2][page needed] An inertial guidance system pilots the missile towards the target; for terminal homing the pilot can control the missile directly via an INS and data link, aiming via either a television or imaging infrared seeker depending on the missile model. It is not necessary for the launching aircraft to direct the missile—control can be passed to another platform while the firing aircraft escapes the area. There are two choices of warhead for the export versions, a 340 kg (750 lb) blast/fragmentation or 360 kg (790 lb) penetrator.

The alleged Israeli submarine-launched cruise missile variant is reported to be jet powered and nuclear armed with a greatly increased range, though according to the Federation of American Scientists "open literature provides little information on this system" but in a May 2000 test launch was tracked for 1,500 km (930 mi).[1]

Air launched variants

[edit]
  • Popeye (also known as Have Nap)— standard solid-rocket–powered stand off missile, 4.82 m (15 ft 10 in) long and weighing 1,360 kg (3,000 lb) with a 340 kg (750 lb) blast fragmentation or 360 kg (790 lb) I-800 penetrating warhead, inertial and imaging infrared or TV guidance.[3]
  • Popeye II or Popeye Lite (also known as Have Lite)— reduced size (shortened to 4.24 m [13 ft 11 in]) and weight version (weight is now 1,125 kg [2,480 lb]) of the Popeye to give light aircraft such as the F-16I Sufa a precision standoff strike capability.[3]
  • Popeye Turbo ALCM—The Popeye Turbo air-launched cruise missile, which uses a jet engine and liquid fuel, is approx 6.25 m (20 ft 6 in) long; it is reported to have a range of more than 320 km (200 mi).[4]
  • Crystal Maze or Raptor was developed in 2003–2004 to be lighter than Popeye for India, with a range of 100 km (62 mi), weighting 1,100 kg (2,400 lb) and carrying an 80 kg (180 lb) warhead.[5]
  • Crystal Maze II or ROCKS is an improved version of Crystal Maze with an enhanced range of 250 km (160 mi). The missile was first test launched in April 2024 from Sukhoi Su-30MKI under Andaman and Nicobar Command. The missile will be mass manufactured in India for Indian Air Force. The missile has the capability to target long range radars and air defence systems in GPS denied environments.[6][7][8]
  • Have Rain—A 2004 report indicated that Rafael was developing a new anti-ship version known as the “Have Rain.” The new missile is believed to have a launch weight of 900 kg (2,000 lb), for deployment aboard Lockheed P-3 Orion.[9]
  • Spice: In 2000, Rafael promoted a "Smart Precise Impact Cost Effective" (Spice) add-on "smart bomb" guidance kit for Mk 84 bombs, this system was based on the Popeye seekers.[3]

Popeye Turbo Submarine Launched Cruise Missile

[edit]
Main articles: submarine-launched cruise missile, Nuclear triad, and Second strike

The Popeye Turbo SLCM is a reportedly stretched version of the Popeye Turbo developed for use as a submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), which was widely reported—in a US Navy-observed 2002 test in the Indian Ocean—to have hit a target 1,500 km (930 mi) away. It is reasonable to assume that the weapon's range has been extended to the point where it can launch against Tehran and even more Iranian cities from a relatively safe location.[10] It can allegedly carry a 200 kiloton nuclear warhead.[10] It is believed that the stretched Popeye Turbo is the primary strategic second strike nuclear deterrent weapon that can be fired from the 650 mm (26 in) secondary torpedo tubes of the Israeli Dolphin-class submarines.[1] It is believed that the SLCM version of the Popeye was developed by Israel after the US Clinton administration refused an Israeli request in 2000 to purchase Tomahawk long range SLCM because of international MTCR proliferation rules.[11] While the standard Popeye is 533 mm (21.0 in) the Dolphin class submarines have four 650 mm (26 in) torpedo tubes in addition to the six standard 533 mm (21.0 in) tubes allowing for the possibility that a SLCM Popeye derivative may be a larger diameter.[12]

Overview

[edit]

The Popeye is compatible with a variety of aircraft from tactical fighters to heavy bombers.[13]

Since their inception, the missiles have gone through a variety of improvement programs designed to increase reliability and reduce costs. These efforts have included changes in the materials and manufacturing processes of the wings, fins and rocket motor, new components in the inertial guidance unit, an upgraded processor, and an improved imaging infrared seeker.

Israel is thought to be using the airframe and avionics to produce a long-range submarine-launched cruise missile with a liquid-fueled jet engine similar to the Popeye Turbo rather than a rocket.[14]

In US use, the Popeye designated as the AGM-142 Have Nap is intended primarily to equip the B-52H, allowing it to attack fixed targets of high value at sufficient range to provide protection from defences. The missile represented the first precision guided munition to be carried by the B-52H.

The London Sunday Times newspaper reported that on 5 July 2013, Israeli Dolphin submarines fired long-range cruise missiles at stores of Russian-made P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles kept at the Syrian port of Latakia, contradicting an earlier CNN report it had been an air strike.[15] Israel also deploys sub-Harpoon missiles capable of land attack on its Dolphin class submarines.[16]

In the afternoon of 7 December 2014, two formations composed by two Israeli Air Force F-15Is each, fired Popeye missiles against two separate target sites in Syria. Syrian air defense Buk-M2 missile batteries fired two missiles at the incoming attack planes, both were jammed and two Pechora 2M missiles were hastily launched at the four incoming Popeye missiles, shooting one down.[17][unreliable source?]

In the early hours of 30 November 2016, Israeli planes launched air-to-surface Popeye missiles from Lebanese airspace at targets at Sabboura, north-east of Damascus.[18]

In 19 December 2024, the IAF conducted airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen targeting ports and energy infrastructure at Sanaa. Popeye missiles were carried on F-15s while the newer Rampage missiles were carried on F-16s.[19]

Deployment

[edit]
A Turkish Air Force F-4E Phantom II aircraft armed with Popeye missiles takes off from Third Air Force Base Konya, Turkey, during Exercise Anatolian Eagle.

First developed for use by the Israeli Air Force, it has been in service since 1985.

The United States Air Force first bought a batch of 154 missiles in 1989 followed by a second batch of 54 missiles in 1996.

The Royal Australian Air Force purchased a number of Popeye missiles in the late 1990s for use by the RAAF's F-111 bombers. The F-111 was taken out of Australian service in 2010.[20] It proved difficult to integrate the missiles onto the F-111s and costs were much higher than expected.[21]

Currently, the Turkish Air Force's F-4 2020 Terminator aircraft (which were extensively upgraded by IAI) and the TuAF F-16 CCIP are armed with a Turkish License production version of the Popeye.

Israel and Turkey co-production

[edit]

In May 1997, Israel and Turkey signed an agreement valued in excess of US$500 million for the establishment of a joint-venture between Israel's Rafael and Turkey's Turkish Aerospace Industries for the co-production of Popeye I and Popeye II missiles in Turkey.[13]

Operators

[edit]
Map with Popeye operators in blue
Popeye Standoff Missile

There have been reports that Israel has exported Popeye and its variants to various countries:[22][23]

Specifications

[edit]
  • Weight : 1,360 kg (3,000 lb)
  • Length: 4.82 m (15 ft 10 in)
  • Diameter: 533 mm (21.0 in)
  • Wingspan: 1.98 m (6 ft 6 in)
  • Guidance: Inertial plus imaging infrared or TV
  • Engine: Single-stage solid rocket
  • Range: 78 km (48 mi)
  • Warhead: 340 kg (750 lb) blast fragmentation, or 360 kg (790 lb) I-800 penetrating

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Popeye (missile)

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
The Popeye is a family of Israeli-developed standoff air-to-surface missiles produced by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, primarily intended for precision strikes against high-value and hardened targets from beyond enemy air defenses. Initiated in the early 1980s to fulfill Israeli Air Force requirements, the baseline Popeye variant utilizes solid-fuel rocket propulsion, measures approximately 4.9 meters in length with a 53-centimeter diameter, and carries a 360-kilogram penetrating warhead to a range of 75-90 kilometers, guided by an inertial navigation system augmented by electro-optical terminal homing for circular error probable accuracies under 3 meters. Notable variants include the turbojet-powered Popeye Turbo, which extends operational range beyond 300 kilometers with terrain-following capabilities suitable for low-altitude cruise, and submarine-launched configurations integrated into Israeli Dolphin-class vessels for strategic deterrence. Deployed operationally by the Israeli Air Force since the late 1980s, the Popeye has seen export to Australia, India, South Korea, and Turkey, while a U.S. adaptation known as the AGM-142 Raptor/Have Nap facilitated testing and limited procurement for compatibility evaluation with American platforms.

Development and History

Origins and Initial Development

The Popeye missile was developed by , an Israeli state-owned defense contractor, in response to the Israeli Air Force's need for a standoff air-to-surface capable of engaging high-value targets beyond visual range. Development began in the early 1980s, building on Rafael's prior research into television (TV) guidance systems dating back to 1972, with the initial Popeye-1 variant designed as a medium-range, electro-optically guided powered by a solid-propellant rocket motor. The missile's origins trace to Israel's strategic imperative for enhanced strike capabilities against defended targets, incorporating TV guidance for terminal-phase accuracy and a heavy to ensure penetration of hardened structures, distinguishing it from shorter-range munitions like the . Initial testing focused on air-launch integration with Israeli combat aircraft such as the F-4 Phantom II and F-16 Fighting Falcon, emphasizing standoff range to minimize exposure to enemy air defenses. Popeye entered operational service with the in 1985, marking Rafael's first major production of a family of standoff missiles that would later expand to include turbojet-powered variants. The subsequently evaluated and adopted the missile under the designation AGM-142 Have Nap, with initial imports from in the late for U.S. testing, reflecting its proven reliability in Israeli operational .

Evolution of Variants

The entered service in 1986 as an air-launched, solid-propellant rocket-powered standoff weapon with television or imaging guidance, enabling precision strikes at ranges of approximately 80 kilometers against high-value targets. Developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems from electro-optical guidance research dating to 1972, the original Popeye 1 weighed 1,360 kilograms and carried a 350-kilogram , prioritizing accuracy with a of 3 meters. A lighter derivative, the 2 (also known as Have Lite), followed with testing in 1994 and operational deployment in 1995; at 1,135 kilograms, it incorporated GPS-augmented inertial for improved autonomy over 75 kilometers, facilitating integration on with payload constraints. The integrated the into its arsenal as the AGM-142 Have Nap from 1988 onward, evolving from late-1980s technology, with production starting in 1989 and combat readiness by 1992; key sub-variants included the AGM-142A with television seeker and blast-fragmentation , the AGM-142B with imaging seeker, and later AGM-142C/D models featuring 350-kilogram penetrator s for hardened targets, alongside export adaptations like the AGM-142E for Australian F-111C . Producibility enhancements under programs like PEP III, tested in 1998, refined reliability and seeker options such as Z-band or CCD imaging. To achieve extended standoff ranges, Rafael introduced the Turbo variant post-1994, substituting rocket propulsion with a engine and folding wings for cruise flight exceeding 200 kilometers in air-launched mode, attaining initial fielding with the Israeli Defense Forces in 2002 following submarine test launches in May 2000. The submarine-launched Turbo configuration, deployable from Dolphin-class vessels, reportedly extends to 1,500 kilometers and supports a 200-kilogram potentially configured for nuclear delivery, marking a shift toward strategic deterrence capabilities.

Export and Co-Production Efforts

The primary co-production effort for the missile involved , initiated through a bilateral defense agreement signed on May 18, 1997, valued at approximately $100 million for the joint production of the Popeye II variant. This partnership established a joint venture between Israel's and 's (TAI), enabling local assembly and manufacturing of Popeye I and II missiles. Under the deal, initially ordered 30 missiles, with the first 20 delivered directly by Rafael, while subsequent production exceeding 170 units occurred domestically through licensed manufacturing and assembly by Turkish firms and Mikes. Export sales complemented these co-production initiatives, with Rafael securing contracts for Popeye variants to , , and . acquired the AGM-142E export variant, adapted for integration with F-111 aircraft, incorporating performance enhancement packages for standoff operations. received approximately 30 Popeye missiles for use by the , primarily on Mirage 2000 fighters, as part of broader Israel-India defense cooperation. integrated Popeye systems into platforms, enhancing long-range precision strike capabilities. These efforts reflected Israel's strategy to leverage the Popeye's for international markets, though specific quantities and timelines for non-Turkish exports remain limited in public disclosures due to classification. The U.S. designation as AGM-142 (Have Nap/Raptor) facilitated allied but involved licensed production rather than direct export sales. By the early 2000s, some operators like considered divesting stockpiles to fund newer systems, indicating evolving priorities.

Technical Design

Air-Launched Configurations

The air-launched Popeye missile, developed by in the early 1980s, serves as a standoff air-to-surface primarily employing propulsion in its baseline configuration, with a solid-fuel booster for initial launch. The standard variant, designated AGM-142A Have Nap in U.S. service, measures approximately 5 meters in length and weighs 1,360 kg at launch, featuring television-guided terminal homing for precision strikes against fixed targets. This configuration was integrated on Israeli F-15 Eagle fighters for extended-range engagements, enabling launches from beyond enemy air defenses. A lighter derivative, the Popeye II (also known as Popeye Lite or AGM-142B Have Lite), optimized for multirole fighters, reduces weight to around 750 kg while maintaining a 150 km range, with electro-optical guidance for improved accuracy in contested environments. Introduced into Israeli service around 1995 following F-16 drop tests in 1994, it prioritizes compatibility with smaller aircraft pylons, such as those on the F-16 Fighting Falcon, allowing for two-missile loads per sortie. Export integrations include Turkish F-4 Phantom II aircraft, which conducted operational firings, and South Korean F-4s, which performed final live tests of AGM-142 Popeye missiles on April 18, 2024, prior to Phantom retirement. The AGM-142E Raptor variant, adapted for U.S. and Australian use, incorporates modifications like GPS-aided navigation for all-weather capability and was certified for carriage on platforms including the U.S. B-52H Stratofortress and Australian F-111C/G strike aircraft, with ranges extended to approximately 120-150 km depending on launch altitude. These configurations emphasize subsonic flight profiles post-boost, with warheads typically ranging from 350 to 400 kg of high explosive, though nuclear-capable options have been associated with Israeli variants in unconfirmed reports from defense analyses. A proposed Turbo air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) variant, featuring a engine and folding wings for 200-350 km range, was offered for export competitions but saw limited adoption compared to submarine-focused iterations.

Submarine-Launched Popeye Turbo

The submarine-launched Popeye Turbo (SLPT), also known as the Popeye Turbo SLCM, is a variant of the Israeli-developed Popeye Turbo cruise missile adapted for underwater launch, primarily to equip Dolphin-class submarines with a sea-based second-strike capability. Developed by after 1994, the SLPT evolved from the air-launched Popeye Turbo, which entered service in 2002, with a reported test of the submarine version conducted in May 2000 in the . This variant utilizes propulsion and is launched from enlarged 650 mm torpedo tubes on the submarines, enabling deployment from platforms like the INS Dolphin, , and later Dolphin II-class vessels such as INS Tanin and Rahav. Specifications for the SLPT remain classified, but estimates indicate a length exceeding 4.82 meters, a compatible with 650 tubes, and a range of approximately 1,500 km, as reported from the 2000 test and aligned with requirements for reaching distant targets like from patrol areas. However, U.S. assessments, such as those from the National Air and Space Center in 2013, place the Popeye Turbo's range at over 300 km, raising questions about its sufficiency for a credible nuclear deterrent against far-off threats without forward basing. Guidance systems mirror the air-launched model, incorporating inertial , television or imaging infrared seekers, and optional man-in-the-loop control for terminal precision. The is believed capable of carrying a nuclear , potentially a 200 kg device with a yield derived from 6 kg of , though maintains ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems. Deployment of the SLPT enhances Israel's strategic posture by providing survivable, mobile nuclear forces independent of land-based assets, with five Dolphin-class submarines operational as of and a sixth, , anticipated to feature vertical launch systems for improved capacity. No exports or operational uses have been confirmed, and details are speculative due to Israel's policy of neither confirming nor denying such capabilities, though analysts widely associate the system with the submarines' role in nuclear deterrence.

Guidance, Propulsion, and Payload Options

The Popeye missile utilizes an (INS) augmented by GPS for mid-course guidance, achieving stable flight en route to the target area. Terminal guidance employs electro-optical seekers, selectable between television (TV) for clear-weather operations or imaging infrared (IIR) for all-weather capability, with reported (CEP) accuracies of 3 meters or better. A two-way enables real-time updates and man-in-the-loop control from the launch platform, allowing mid-flight target redesignation or abort commands. The Turbo variant retains similar guidance architecture but incorporates enhancements for launch, including a pop-up from underwater to achieve low-altitude cruise, followed by INS/GPS mid-course and electro-optical terminal phases. These systems ensure precision against hardened or mobile targets, with the facilitating integration with command-and-control networks. Propulsion for the standard air-launched Popeye relies on a turbojet engine for sustained subsonic cruise following an initial boost phase, supporting ranges of 80-90 km at speeds around Mach 0.8. The Popeye Turbo employs an advanced liquid-fueled turbojet for extended endurance, enabling ranges of 200-350 km while maintaining low-altitude flight profiles to evade detection. This turbofan-like efficiency distinguishes it from rocket-only systems, allowing loitering or variable-speed operations in some configurations. Payload options include modular warheads of approximately 350 kg, with conventional blast-fragmentation types for area effects or penetrator variants (e.g., I-800 series) for bunker-busting, achieving deep penetration against . Export models offer 340 kg blast-fragmentation or 360 kg penetrator , while the Turbo is assessed as nuclear-capable with yields up to 200 kilotons, though Israeli policy maintains strategic ambiguity on such armaments. selection depends on mission requirements, with fuzing options for impact, delay, or proximity detonation.

Specifications and Performance

Physical Characteristics

The Popeye missile, also designated AGM-142 in its U.S. export variant as Have Nap, measures 4.82 in length, with a of 0.533 and a of approximately 1.98 . Its launch weight is 1,360 kilograms, including a typically weighing 340 to 360 kilograms of high explosive or penetrator type. The missile's cylindrical incorporates pop-out wings and control surfaces for stability and maneuverability during flight. The Turbo variant, adapted for submarine and air launch, features a stretched to accommodate a engine, increasing its length beyond the baseline model while expanding the to 0.65 meters. This configuration supports extended range operations, with the added volume housing fuel and propulsion components distinct from the solid-rocket motor of the standard . A lighter derivative, Popeye Lite or Popeye 2, reduces dimensions to 4.24 meters in length and maintains a 0.53-meter , with a decreased weight suitable for integration on smaller platforms. These physical adaptations reflect the missile's modular design, prioritizing compatibility with Israeli and export aircraft such as the F-4 Phantom and F-15 Eagle.

Operational Parameters

The missile family employs a low-observable design optimized for standoff strikes, with operational ranges determined by variant, launch altitude, and payload configuration. The baseline air-launched (also designated AGM-142) achieves 75-90 km when released from medium-altitude fighter platforms, with effective standoff exceeding 50 nautical miles from high-altitude releases due to initial and aerodynamic lift. These parameters support sea-skimming or terrain-hugging flight profiles at altitudes below 100 meters to evade detection, though exact cruise altitudes remain classified and vary with mission requirements. The Popeye Turbo variant, utilizing propulsion for sustained cruise, extends air-launched range beyond 200 km, while its submarine-launched configuration (SLCM) has demonstrated up to 1,500 km in tests conducted around May 2000, enabling second-strike capabilities from Dolphin-class submarines via 533 mm or 650 mm torpedo tubes. in the baseline model relies on a single-stage solid rocket for boost-glide operation, limiting endurance to minutes, whereas the Turbo's supports flight durations of 20-30 minutes at subsonic speeds, prioritizing over velocity for extended loiter and terminal maneuvers. Launch parameters require carrier aircraft speeds above Mach 0.8 and altitudes from to 12 km, with compatibility across platforms like F-4, F-15, and F-16 fighters; submarine launches demand capsule encapsulation for ejection. Environmental tolerances include operation in adverse weather, with inertial augmented by electro-optical ensuring 3 m CEP accuracy under man-in-the-loop control for dynamic targets.
VariantRange (km)PropulsionTypical Flight Profile
/AGM-14275-90Solid rocket boost-glideLow-altitude ingress, terminal dive
Turbo (air-launched)>200 cruiseTerrain-following, subsonic sustain
Turbo SLCM~1,500 (tested) cruiseSea-skimming post-ejection

Operators and Deployment

Primary Operator: Israel

serves as the primary developer and operator of the Popeye missile family, with producing the system primarily for the (IAF) since its introduction in the early 1980s. The baseline Popeye air-to-surface missile features a range of 75 to 90 kilometers and carries a 350 kg , enabling precision strikes from standoff distances. Integrated on IAF fighter aircraft such as F-15 and F-16 variants, it supports conventional operations while contributing to 's broader strategic capabilities. The Popeye Turbo variant extends operational reach to 200-350 kilometers through propulsion, enhancing roles for the IAF. maintains operational secrecy regarding exact deployment numbers and configurations, aligning with its policy of nuclear ambiguity, though the 's adaptability supports both conventional and potential nuclear payloads in strategic contexts. A (SLCM) adaptation of the Turbo equips 's Dolphin-class submarines, providing sea-based second-strike options. In May 2000, Israel conducted initial test launches of these missiles from two German-built Dolphin-class vessels. Each of the five Dolphin-class submarines can accommodate up to 16 Turbo SLCMs via enlarged 650 mm torpedo tubes, with reports indicating potential nuclear arming to bolster deterrence against regional threats. This configuration forms a key element of Israel's underwater leg, though official confirmation remains absent due to strategic opacity.

Turkish Co-Production and Use

In August 1996, Israel and Turkey agreed to co-produce Popeye I missiles as part of broader military cooperation. This was followed by a May 1997 agreement to jointly produce the smaller Popeye II variant through a consortium involving Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Turkish firms, including Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ), with an initial contract value of approximately $100 million. Under license arrangements from 1997 to 1998, Turkey ordered an initial batch of 30 Popeye missiles and domestically manufactured over 170 units of Popeye 1 and Popeye 2 variants. Deliveries included at least 40 Popeye I missiles in 1997 and a second batch of 60 in 1998. The missiles were integrated into the inventory for deployment on upgraded F-4E Phantom II aircraft and F-16 fighters. Israel facilitated the F-4E upgrades to enable compatibility, enhancing Turkey's standoff strike capabilities. TUSAŞ's involvement in production supported local defense industry development, though output focused on air-to-ground configurations without confirmed adaptations for other platforms. No public records indicate combat employment of these missiles by Turkish forces as of the early , with their role centered on conventional precision strikes amid evolving Israel-Turkey relations.

Other Known or Potential Users

The Popeye missile family, including variants such as Lite, has been exported by and, in some cases, the to a limited number of allied nations beyond primary operators and . Reported recipients include , where the Royal Australian Air Force integrated missiles for use with F-111 aircraft in the late and early , though operational service was later discontinued in favor of other standoff munitions. India's Air Force acquired approximately 30 Popeye air-to-surface missiles, primarily for integration with Su-30MKI fighters, enhancing long-range strike capabilities against high-value targets; these acquisitions were part of broader defense cooperation with Israel dating to the early 2000s. South Korea's Republic of Korea Air Force ordered Popeye Lite variants for its F-15K and F-16 platforms, with deliveries supporting precision strike requirements against North Korean threats; these systems remain in limited inventory as of the mid-2010s. The military tested and designated the missile as AGM-142 Have Nap / for compatibility with F-15 and F-16 , acquiring around 100 units in the primarily for evaluation and potential export facilitation rather than frontline deployment. Potential users have included other U.S. allies, with unconfirmed mid- reports indicating interest from nations seeking advanced standoff capabilities, though no verified additional operational adoptions have materialized due to export controls under the and preferences for indigenous or alternative systems. No evidence supports widespread proliferation beyond these cases, reflecting ' selective export policy focused on strategic partners.

Operational History and Strategic Role

Combat Deployments and Effectiveness

The AGM-142 variant of the Popeye missile achieved its first confirmed combat deployment on May 11, 1999, when U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bombers fired two missiles at a Serbian communications intercept station during Operation Allied Force in . This marked the initial operational use of the weapon in anger, targeting fixed high-value infrastructure with its television-guided, man-in-the-loop precision capability, though specific outcomes such as hit confirmation or damage assessment remain limited in declassified reports. Israel employed the Popeye missile in airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on December 19, 2024, launching from F-15I Ra'am fighters to engage defended sites at standoff ranges without requiring extensive suppression of enemy air defenses. The strikes focused on radar and missile infrastructure, leveraging the missile's 75-90 km range and electro-optical guidance for accurate terminal homing against time-sensitive or hardened targets. Reported success stemmed from its low-observable flight profile and real-time operator retargeting, enabling penetration of contested airspace, though independent verification of target destruction was constrained by operational secrecy. Prior Israeli combat applications of the remain unconfirmed despite frequent airstrikes involving standoff munitions, such as operations in , where its capabilities align with precision needs but lack explicit attribution in open sources. Overall effectiveness in deployments highlights the 's reliability for fixed-target engagement, with under 3 meters via electro-optical seekers and a 360 kg sufficient for bunkers or communications nodes, though its subsonic speed limits utility against mobile or heavily integrated air defenses without complementary jamming. No major failures have been publicly documented, underscoring its role in enabling low-risk, high-accuracy strikes from beyond visual range.

Role in Deterrence and Nuclear Ambiguity

The Popeye Turbo, a submarine-launched variant of the Popeye missile with a reported range exceeding 1,500 kilometers, contributes to 's nuclear deterrence by enabling a survivable second-strike capability from Dolphin-class submarines. Analysts assess that these platforms, equipped with nuclear-capable cruise missiles, allow to maintain a credible retaliatory threat against existential attacks without relying solely on land-based assets vulnerable to preemption. This sea-based posture enhances deterrence by complicating adversaries' calculations, as the missiles' stealthy, low-observable flight profiles and potential for dispersed deployment from submerged vessels reduce detectability and targeting risks. Israel's policy of deliberate nuclear ambiguity—neither confirming nor denying possession of nuclear weapons—intersects with the Popeye system's opacity, as official statements avoid specifics on integration while unclassified assessments indicate compatibility with warheads weighing up to 200 kilograms. The ambiguity preserves strategic flexibility, deterring aggression from regional actors like by implying a disproportionate response capability without provoking arms races or international isolation that explicit acknowledgment might trigger. Reports from 2012 onward, including German intelligence confirmations, suggest operational deployment of nuclear-tipped Popeye missiles on at least five Dolphin submarines, bolstering this veiled assurance of retaliation even under surprise assault. In practice, the system's role amplifies causal deterrence dynamics: potential attackers must weigh the uncertainty of Israel's nuclear threshold against the assured penetration of submarine-launched strikes, which bypass air defenses and reach targets across the . This aligns with Israel's broader "" doctrine of last-resort escalation, where ambiguity maximizes psychological impact without committing to first-use, though critics argue it risks miscalculation by adversaries perceiving restraint as bluff. Empirical evidence from non-deployment in conflicts underscores its restraint-oriented deterrence, prioritizing prevention over demonstration.

Proliferation Concerns and Criticisms

Export Control Issues

The Popeye missile, classified as a Category I system under the (MTCR) due to its range exceeding 300 km and capacity for payloads over 500 kg, faces strict international restrictions aimed at preventing proliferation of weapons delivery systems. , though not a formal MTCR member, maintains a unilateral commitment to adhere to the regime's guidelines, which include a "strong presumption to deny" transfers of such missiles to non-partners or entities posing proliferation risks. This self-restraint has allowed limited s to vetted allies, but has drawn scrutiny from MTCR partners, particularly the , over potential diversions or adaptations for non-conventional uses. Exports have proceeded under bilateral agreements with end-user assurances, including sales to , , , and for integration with fighter aircraft like the F-4 Phantom II and F-15. A key example is the May 1997 co-production deal with , initially valued at approximately $100 million for Popeye II variants and later expanded to over $500 million, enabling local assembly and equipping of up to 46 missiles for Turkish F-4s by the early 2000s. These transfers incorporated safeguards, such as conventional limitations and technology transfer controls, to mitigate risks of unauthorized replication or resale. Critics, including U.S. policymakers, have highlighted vulnerabilities in enforcement, noting that cruise missiles like the Popeye evade some ballistic missile controls and could enable covert WMD delivery if modified, prompting calls for tighter multilateral oversight beyond MTCR voluntary measures. No verified diversions have occurred, but evolving geopolitical ties—such as strained Israel-Turkey relations post-2000—have amplified concerns about retained production knowledge in recipient states. U.S. export licensing for compatible components further constrains Israeli sales, reflecting broader efforts to align allies with non-proliferation norms.

Strategic Risks and International Reactions

The deployment of the Popeye Turbo submarine-launched variant on Israel's Dolphin-class submarines introduces strategic risks by establishing a survivable sea-based nuclear second-strike capability with an estimated range of 1,500 km, potentially extending deterrence to targets in the including . This opacity in Israel's nuclear posture, combined with the missile's precision guidance enabling low-observable launches, heightens the danger of miscalculation or escalation in regional conflicts, as adversaries may perceive a lowered threshold for preemptive strikes to neutralize perceived threats. Critics argue that such systems contribute to an dynamic, prompting responses like Iran's pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines and advanced missile defenses. Exports of the Popeye missile exacerbate proliferation risks, with supplying variants to (including licensed production of up to 170 units), (90 AGM-142E units), (30 variants), and (over 216 units), enabling potential reverse-engineering or adaptation for non-NPT states in volatile regions. 's co-production, which informed its indigenous SOM cruise missile, has raised concerns over technology leakage to unstable actors, complicating (MTCR) guidelines despite Israel's non-signatory status. These transfers prioritize operational alliances over non-proliferation norms, potentially destabilizing balances in the and . International reactions remain subdued due to geopolitical alignments, with German authorities aware since the early 2000s of nuclear warheads (up to 200 kg yield) on submarines subsidized by , yet proceeding without public objection to preserve strategic partnerships. U.S. officials have funded integrations like the AGM-142 variant ($106 million allocated) while restricting combat use to avoid political fallout, reflecting tacit acceptance amid shared deterrence interests. advocates, including the Arms Control Association, highlight the need for greater transparency on submarine-launched systems to mitigate escalation risks, though proposals for bans have gained limited traction.

References

  1. https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/popeye/
  2. https://www.deagel.com/Weapons/Popeye/a001070
  3. http://designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-142.html
  4. https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/cruise-missiles-in-the-middle-east.pdf
  5. https://www.nti.org/education-center/facilities/rafael-yodefat/
  6. https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-142.htm
  7. https://weaponsparade.com/weapon/popeye-agm-142-air-to-surface-missile/
  8. https://nuke.fas.org/guide/israel/missile/popeye-t.htm
  9. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1997/05/18/Turkey-to-help-produce-Israeli-missile/7945863928000/
  10. https://www.flightglobal.com/turkey-prepares-to-build-rafael-popeyes/1919.article
  11. https://www.nti.org/education-center/facilities/rafael-advanced-defense-systems/
  12. https://www.flightglobal.com/australia-to-sell-popeye-missiles/35988.article
  13. https://www.twz.com/air/israeli-air-force-strikes-yemen-with-popeye-and-rampage-standoff-missiles
  14. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/south-koreas-f-4-phantoms-fire-agm-142-popeye-missiles-one-last-time-before-retirement/
  15. https://www.ausairpower.net/TE-AGM-142-SOW.html
  16. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/israel/popeye-t.htm
  17. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/israel-submarine-capabilities/
  18. https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/israel_missile_design_characteristics.pdf
  19. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/agm-142-specs.htm
  20. https://www.globalmilitary.net/missiles/agm-142-have-nap/
  21. https://vocal.media/fyi/exploring-the-israeli-popeye-missile-a-comprehensive-overview
  22. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/dolphin-class-israel-has-submarine-might-have-nuclear-missiles-213417
  23. https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/israels-dolphin-class-submarines-might-be-armed-with-nuclear-weapons/
  24. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/98-633.html
  25. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/28828/05_Sep.pdf
  26. https://www.f-16.net/f-16_users_article21.html
  27. https://www.flightglobal.com/turkey-and-israel-conclude-f-4-phantom-popeye-deal/9973.article
  28. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/turkish-israeli-military-cooperation-assessment
  29. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/09/advantageous-ambiguity-israels-nuclear-arsenal?lang=en
  30. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/known-secret-why-israel-operates-nuclear-submarines-176079
  31. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012-07/israel-has-nuclear-armed-sub-report-says
  32. https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israel-deploys-nuclear-weapons-on-german-built-submarines-a-836784.html
  33. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-795752
  34. https://carnegie.ru/commentary/82790
  35. https://basicint.org/why-the-israeli-policy-of-nuclear-ambiguity-is-harmful-for-prospects-of-a-wmd-free-zone-in-the-middle-east/
  36. https://www.mtcr.info/en/mtcr-guidelines
  37. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/israel/
  38. https://irp.fas.org/threat/fp/b19ch6.htm
  39. https://riseup4rojava.org/weapon-industry/
  40. https://iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/04/iiss_missile-proliferation-and-control-in-the-asia-pacific-region_042024.pdf
  41. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13537121.2023.2295602
  42. https://www.flightglobal.com/us-export-controls-will-kill-israeli-industry-/32646.article
  43. https://www.mei.edu/publications/destabilizing-role-missiles-middle-east
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