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Thundersnow
Thundersnow
Thundersnow
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Thundersnow formation with an occluded front
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Thundersnow, also known as a winter thunderstorm or a thundersnow storm, is a thunderstorm in which snow falls as the primary precipitation instead of rain. It is considered a rare phenomenon.[1] It typically falls in regions of strong upward motion within the cold sector of an extratropical cyclone. Thermodynamically, it is not different from any other type of thunderstorm, but the top of the cumulonimbus cloud is usually quite low. In addition to snow, graupel or hail may fall as well. The heavy snowfall tends to muffle the sound of the thunder so that it sounds more like a low rumble than the loud, sharp bang that is heard during regular thunderstorms.[2]

Thundersnow can occur during a normal snowstorm that sustains strong vertical mixing which allows for favorable conditions for lightning and thunder to occur. It can also occur from the lake effect or ocean effect thunderstorm which is produced by cold air passing over relatively warm water; this effect commonly produces snow squalls over the Great Lakes.

Occurrence

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Americas

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Within the United States, thundersnow is relatively rare but most common in "eastern Nevada and Utah, the central plains, and the Great Lake [sic] states".[3] Thundersnow also occurs in Nova Scotia and in the Northeastern United States, especially in New England and New York, sometimes several times per winter season.[citation needed] On December 30, 2019, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for parts of Massachusetts for a thunderstorm cell that was producing "lightning, thundersnow, thundersleet, and thunderice".[4] A "really rare" thundersnow storm occurred near Vancouver, British Columbia on December 17–18, 2022.[5]

The South Region of Brazil registered episodes of thundersnow in 1984 and 2005, in the state of Santa Catarina, and in August 2011, in some municipalities of the highland region of Serra Gaúcha, in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.[6]

Europe

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The British Isles and other parts of northwestern Europe occasionally report thunder and lightning during sleet or (usually wet) snow showers during winter and spring. Scotland registered an episode of thundersnow in the early hours of 4 December 2020, the unusual noise causing alarm among local people.[7] The Met Office warned of thundersnow in Scotland, Wales and northern England in early January 2022.[8]

Western Europe has rare occurrences of thundersnow, as on 8 March 2010, when northeastern Catalonia, including Barcelona, experienced a heavy snowfall accompanied by lightning, with snow depths surpassing 30 centimetres (12 in) in low altitude areas.[9]

In Central Europe, a large-area (non-local) thundersnow occurred on 17 January 2022, when a strong synoptic-scale squall line passed north to south over whole central and eastern Poland, precipitating both granular snow and snowflakes, with discharge intensity exceeding 100 per minute.[10] Other recent occurrences were in Poland and the Czech Republic in January 2023, Germany in January 2021, and Norway and Netherlands as well as Austria in April 2021, with previous occurrences in Norway in January 2019[11] and January 2020.[12] Stockholm experienced thundersnow on 21 November 2022.[13][14]

Asia

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Low-pressure events in the eastern Mediterranean that originate from polar origin cause copious thundersnow occurrences during winter storms, especially over the elevated provinces of Israel and Jordan, including Amman and Jerusalem. When such storms happen at areas intended for skiing, the mountains are often evacuated for safety.[citation needed]

Thundersnow is also common around Kanazawa and the Sea of Japan, and even around Mount Everest.[citation needed]

Formation

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Thundersnow is caused by the same mechanisms as regular thunderstorms, but it is much more rare because cold dense air is less likely to rise.[15]

Lake effect precipitation

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A large squall producing heavy snow and frequent lightning over Buffalo, NY.

Lake effect thundersnow occurs after a cold front or shortwave aloft passes over a body of water. This steepens the thermal lapse rates between the lake temperature and the temperatures aloft. A difference in temperature of 25 °C (45 °F) or more between the lake temperature and the temperature at about 1,500 m (4,900 ft) (the 850 hPa level) usually marks the onset of thundersnow, if surface temperatures are expected to be below freezing. However several factors, including other geographical elements, affect the development of thundersnow.

The primary factor is convective depth. This is the vertical depth in the troposphere that a parcel of air will rise from the ground before it reaches the equilibrium (EQL) level and stops rising. A minimum depth of 1,500 m (4,900 ft) is necessary, and an average depth of 3,000 m (9,800 ft) or more is generally accepted as sufficient. Wind shear is also a significant factor. Linear snow squall bands produce more thundersnow than clustered bands; thus a directional wind shear with a change of less than 12° between the ground and 2,000 m (6,600 ft) in height must be in place. However, any change in direction greater than 12° through that layer will tear the snow squall apart. A bare minimum fetch of 50 km/h (31 mph) is required so that the air passing over the lake or ocean water will become sufficiently saturated with moisture and will acquire thermal energy from the water.

The last component is the echo top or storm top temperature. This must be at least −30 °C (−22 °F). It is generally accepted that at this temperature there is no longer any super cooled water vapour present in a cloud, but just ice crystals suspended in the air. This allows for the interaction of the ice cloud and graupel pellets within the storm to generate a charge, resulting in lightning and thunder.[16]

Synoptic forcing

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Synoptic snow storms tend to be large and complex, with many possible factors affecting the development of thundersnow. The best location in a storm to find thundersnow is typically in its NorthWest quadrant (in the Northern Hemisphere, based on observations in the Midwestern United States), within what is known as the "comma head" of a mature extratropical cyclone.[17][18] Thundersnow can also be located underneath the TROWAL, a trough of warm air aloft which shows up in a surface weather analysis as an inverted trough extending backward into the cold sector from the main cyclone.[19] In extreme cases, thunderstorms along the cold front are transported towards the center of the low-pressure system and will have their precipitation change to snow or ice, once the cold front becomes a portion of the occluded front.[18] The 1991 Halloween blizzard, Superstorm of 1993, and White Juan are examples of such blizzards featuring thundersnow.

Upslope flow

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Similar to the lake effect regime, thundersnow is usually witnessed in terrain in the cold sector of an extratropical cyclone when a shortwave aloft moves into the region. The shortwave will steepen the local lapse rates, allowing for a greater possibility of both heavy snow at elevations where it is near or below freezing, and occasionally thundersnow.[20]

Hazards

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Thundersnow produces heavy snowfall rates in the range of 5 to 10 cm (2 to 4 in) per hour. Snowfall of this intensity may limit visibilities severely, even during light wind conditions. However, thundersnow is often a part of a severe winter storm or blizzard. Winds of above tropical storm force are frequent with thundersnow. As a result, visibilities in thundersnow are frequently under 2/5th of a mile. Additionally, such wind creates extreme wind chills and may result in frostbite. Finally, there is a greater likelihood that thundersnow lightning will have a positive polarity, which is associated with a greater destructive potential than the more common negatively-charged lightning.[21] That said, lightning is far less frequent in a thundersnow storm than in a summertime storm, and is usually of the cloud-to-cloud variety, rather than a strike that travels to the ground.[2]

See also

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References

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Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Thundersnow

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
Thundersnow is a rare winter event in which a produces as its primary , featuring , thunder, and heavy snowfall instead of . This phenomenon occurs when strong and abundant moisture exist aloft, often above a or in lake-effect snowbands near large bodies of water like the or , allowing convective updrafts to lift moist air into colder regions where snow forms. Thundersnow is less common than summer thunderstorms due to the typically cold air near the surface in winter, but it can generate intense snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour, leading to rapid accumulation, reduced visibility, and hazardous travel conditions. During these events, may appear brighter at night due to reflection off flakes, while thunder sounds muffled and is audible only within about 2 to 3 miles of the strike because snow dampens the sound waves. In addition to the risks associated with heavy snow, such as road hazards from blowing and drifting snow, thundersnow poses lightning dangers, emphasizing the need for indoor shelter during these storms.

Physical Characteristics

Definition and Rarity

Thundersnow is a meteorological phenomenon characterized by a thunderstorm that produces snowfall as the primary precipitation, rather than rain, typically occurring within cumulonimbus clouds that generate thunder, lightning, and heavy snowflakes. This event combines the convective processes of a summer thunderstorm with winter conditions, where surface temperatures remain below freezing, ensuring that precipitation falls as snow instead of liquid water. The rarity of thundersnow stems from the specific atmospheric conditions required, making it an infrequent occurrence compared to typical thunderstorms or snowstorms. It is estimated to happen in only about 0.07% of reported snowfalls globally, as these events demand a rare alignment of cold surface air and sufficient upper-level warmth and to fuel . This low frequency highlights why thundersnow is considered exceptional, often limited to brief episodes within larger winter storms. For thundersnow to form, key prerequisites include a vertical temperature profile featuring cold air near the surface (below 0°C) and warmer, moist air aloft, creating conditional that promotes strong updrafts. Lightning arises from charge separation, primarily involving collisions between ice crystals and rimed particles in the mixed-phase region of the cloud, where lighter ice crystals acquire positive charge and rise, while heavier graupel gains negative charge and falls. Observations of thundersnow have been documented in since the , with early records particularly noting occurrences in the Great Lakes region of during intense winter storms. These initial reports laid the groundwork for later meteorological studies, confirming the phenomenon's association with specific instability patterns.

Key Meteorological Features

Thundersnow events require substantial to generate convective activity in cold environments, typically marked by (LI) values below -6°C, indicating strong potential for upward motion. (CAPE) is generally low in thundersnow environments, typically less than 100 J/kg, yet sufficient to support convective development. This arises primarily from cold air over relatively warm surfaces, such as lakes or unfrozen ground, which establishes steep lapse rates—rapid decreases in temperature with height—that promote vertical development. Charge separation in thundersnow is primarily driven by the non-inductive mechanism, where collisions between (soft hail) and ice crystals occur within a mix of supercooled droplets. During these interactions, electrons are transferred, with ice crystals typically gaining positive charge and graupel acquiring negative charge, leading to the buildup of electric fields sufficient for discharge. This process is most efficient at temperatures around -15°C, where supercooled droplets enhance the charge transfer efficiency. The cloud structure associated with thundersnow consists of tall cumulonimbus clouds featuring anvil tops, formed by strong updrafts that spread out at the level. Unlike typical summer thunderstorms, the entire atmospheric column remains subfreezing, ensuring that manifests as rather than or at the surface. Reflectivity within these clouds often reaches 25-30 dBZ in the -10°C to -20°C layers, reflecting the presence of larger hydrometeors like . Thunder during thundersnow is characteristically muffled, as falling snowflakes absorb sound waves effectively due to their porous, fluffy structure, limiting audibility to within a few kilometers. is further compromised by intense snowfall rates, which can reach 5-10 cm per hour, creating and rapid ground accumulation.

Geographical Distribution

North America

Thundersnow events in North America are most prevalent in the , particularly within the areas downwind of the lakes, such as and , extending into the broader Midwest and Northeast . These locations benefit from the proximity to large bodies of water that supply moisture and heat for convective activity during cold outbreaks. Occurrences are rarer in Canada's Prairie provinces and the , where topographic and synoptic conditions less frequently support the necessary instability for such events. In lake-effect zones around the , thundersnow typically manifests in 5-8 events per cool season (September through March), with the highest frequency from to when cold air masses interact with relatively warm lake surfaces. Across the , climatological analyses indicate an average of approximately 6-7 thundersnow events annually, based on three-hourly weather observations over nearly two decades (1982-1999). These patterns highlight the concentration of activity in the central and eastern regions, where lake-enhanced dominates. The climatology of thundersnow in is heavily influenced by the persistence of elevated water temperatures in the well into the winter months, which sustains moisture flux and vertical instability even as air temperatures drop. This often ties into lake-effect setups, where prolonged cold northerly flows over unfrozen waters can trigger multi-day outbreaks of convective snowbands, amplifying the potential for thunder. Such episodes are particularly notable in the snowbelts, where repeated lake-effect cycles can extend thundersnow activity over several consecutive days. Recent analyses up to 2023 reveal a slight increase in the frequency of lake-effect snowfall events, including those conducive to thundersnow, in the since 2000. This trend is linked to variable and generally warmer lake surface temperatures, coupled with declining ice cover, which enhance and moisture availability during winter. Thundersnow continued in the 2024-2025 winter, including lake-effect events in December 2024 near , and widespread occurrences in January 2025 across the Midwest and Northeast.

Europe and Asia

Thundersnow events in are most prominent in mountainous and northern regions, particularly the , , and the , where they arise during cold air outbreaks interacting with terrain or maritime influences. In the , orographic enhancement lifts moist air to produce convective snow showers accompanied by thunder, with occurrences noted in high-elevation areas during winter storms. experiences thundersnow during intense cold snaps, often linked to polar air masses, while the and see it in northwest sectors during wintry showers from Atlantic fronts, such as events reported in , , and in early 2015. Seasonality in peaks from to , aligning with the coldest months when synoptic-scale cold intrusions favor instability in snow-bearing clouds. Overall frequency remains lower than in , attributed to fewer large, persistent warm water bodies like the that sustain prolonged lake-effect ; European events are more sporadic and terrain-driven. The experience 20-40 thunderstorm days annually overall, with winter activity, including thundersnow, being less frequent and more sporadic due to stable cold air masses. During the stormy 2020-2021 winter in , lightning activity was notably higher, with 5-13 thunderstorm days per month in stormiest regions like the Baltic area and , including instances of thundersnow more frequent during evening and pre-dawn hours over land. In , thundersnow is observed in northern and high-elevation zones, including , the coast in , and the , influenced by the Siberian High's cold outflows and retreating monsoons. Siberian regions, particularly eastern , report thundersnow features during winter, driven by continental cold air masses. Along Japan's snowbands, lake-effect-like processes from the relatively warm sea generate heavy snowfall with embedded thunderstorms, contributing to significant winter events. The host the majority of high-elevation thundersnow globally, with orographic lifting in peaks over 2 km promoting convective activity in snowstorms. Occurrences are rarer in southern due to warmer temperatures limiting sustained cold . Asian seasonality centers on to , with some extension into late spring for Himalayan events, reflecting the peak of winter cold and moisture availability. Frequency is generally low but elevated in specific locales; over , a 10-year study (2008-2017) identified thundersnow across much of the country, occurring mainly -May and October-November, with higher rates at elevations above 2 km and events once every 10 years at low-altitude sites. These patterns underscore continental and orographic influences over maritime ones, contrasting with North America's lake-dominated regime.

Formation Mechanisms

Lake-Effect Processes

Lake-effect thundersnow arises when cold , typically with temperatures below freezing, advects over relatively warm, unfrozen lakes such as the , where surface water temperatures exceed 4°C. This interaction transfers sensible and from the lake to the overlying air, causing rapid and the development of a moist, unstable that drives intense . The process results in organized bands of heavy snowfall, where the added allows tops to reach heights sufficient for charge separation and electrical discharges, manifesting as thunder and within the snowstorm. The buildup of is enhanced by the fetch length—the distance cold air travels across the open —which must exceed 100 km to allow adequate time for and accumulation, promoting convergence at the top and the formation of mesoscale convective structures. In these events, snow-to-liquid ratios can reach up to 20:1, attributed to efficient riming of snowflakes in the presence of supercooled droplets lifted by the . Favorable speeds of 10-20 m/s, oriented perpendicular to the shoreline, optimize the fetch and maximize into the atmosphere, intensifying the convective bands. Atmospheric profiles conducive to thundersnow show elevated temperatures and dewpoints in the lower compared to non-lightning lake-effect snowstorms, with significantly lower lifted indices indicating greater potential for deep convection. This often involves warming and moistening between the 850 mb and 500 mb levels, where temperatures around -8°C to -12°C at 850 mb provide just enough conditional when combined with lake-induced heating. observations frequently reveal these events as linear, squall-like features, with narrow bands extending tens of kilometers inland, producing localized thundersnow lines downstream of the lakes.

Synoptic-Scale Forcing

Synoptic-scale forcing for thundersnow arises from large-scale atmospheric dynamics, particularly within intense extratropical cyclones that generate widespread ascent and conducive to convective activity during snowfall. These events typically occur in the comma head region of mature cyclones, where strong vertical motion is driven by upper-level divergence associated with a deep 500 mb trough and embedded jet streaks exceeding 50 m/s, promoting the release of and embedded that produces thunder. This setup often involves cold fronts advancing over warmer surfaces or air masses, enhancing conditional through contrasts in and , which builds upon sharp cold-warm boundaries to sustain upright development in otherwise stable winter atmospheres. A key feature amplifying this forcing is rapid , commonly termed "" cyclones, where the surface low-pressure center deepens by at least 24 mb over 24 hours (or 1 mb per hour), adjusted for latitude, leading to intensified lift and heavier precipitation bands. Such explosive development provides the dynamic forcing for uniform, synoptic-scale distributions rather than localized bands, with thunder resulting from charge separation in the convective elements embedded within the broader storm structure. In the , these conditions frequently manifest north of a surface and above the warm frontal inversion, contributing to mesoscale enhancements in snowfall rates. Regionally, thundersnow under synoptic forcing is prevalent in the Midwest U.S., where continental cyclones interact with ample moisture from upstream sources, and along the U.S. East Coast during nor'easters, which often exhibit bomb-like intensification and deliver widespread heavy snow across the Northeast. These events differ from more localized convective modes by producing broader, more consistent snow accumulations, with thunder activity concentrated in areas of heightened within the cyclone's core, often yielding rates exceeding 2.5 cm per hour in affected zones.

Orographic Enhancement

Orographic enhancement refers to the process by which elevated terrain forces the ascent of moist air, promoting the development of thundersnow through adiabatic cooling and the release of latent instability. In winter storms, low-level moist air encountering mountain barriers, such as the or Sierra Nevada, rises along windward slopes, leading to , cloud formation, and convective overturning within otherwise stable atmospheric layers. This mechanism differs from broader synoptic forcing by emphasizing terrain-induced vertical motion as the primary lift, often resulting in localized, intense snowfall bands accompanied by thunder. Favorable conditions for orographic thundersnow include persistent upslope flow with sufficient low-level moisture and moderate to strong winds directed toward the terrain, typically perpendicular to the mountain crest to maximize lift. These events are most common during winter when cold air masses interact with , allowing to penetrate stable layers and generate electrical activity despite subfreezing temperatures. Orographic can amplify rates on windward slopes, concentrating snow accumulation in narrow bands where instability is released. Cloud development in orographic thundersnow begins with the formation of stratiform clouds over the , which are then destabilized by ongoing uplift, evolving into cumulonimbus or multicell structures capable of producing . This sustains charge separation within particles and supercooled droplets, enabling thunder even in snowy conditions, and is particularly evident on windward slopes during storms with directional . The resulting thundersnow is often short-lived and isolated, contrasting with more widespread convective activity. In , orographic thundersnow is prevalent in the , with a climatological maximum in and , where approximately 30 events were documented over 1961–1990, averaging one per year. Notable examples include four thundersnow storms in during the 2012/13 winter, driven by upslope flow over the , which produced heavy snow and frequent . Similarly, on February 14, 2019, strong orographic convection over the Sierra Nevada generated nearly 1,000 strikes amid intense snowfall, highlighting the role of terrain in amplifying winter thunderstorms. More recently, in September 2025, thundersnow affected areas from Winter Park to Leadville in Colorado's .

Associated Hazards

Intense Snowfall and Accumulations

Thundersnow events are characterized by exceptionally high snowfall intensities due to the convective nature of the storms, which efficiently transport and deposit aloft. Snowfall rates during these occurrences can reach 5 to 10 centimeters (2 to 4 inches) per hour, driven by strong updrafts that enhance efficiency compared to typical snowstorms. This intensity arises from the that fuels activity within the winter environment, allowing for rapid accumulation that standard snow events rarely match. Such elevated rates often result in substantial snow accumulations over short periods, with 30 centimeters (12 inches) or more possible in just a few hours in affected areas. For instance, during a 2006 thundersnow event in , 30 centimeters accumulated within six hours, overwhelming local infrastructure. These rapid buildups stem from the convective mechanisms that concentrate in narrow bands, leading to localized heavy deposits. The primary impacts of intense thundersnow snowfall include severe reductions in visibility, often creating where sightlines drop below 100 meters due to the dense, blowing . This drastically impairs , prompting widespread road closures and contributing to multi-vehicle accidents on major highways; a thundersnow storm in the U.S. Midwest, for example, led to fatal crashes on interstates amid slick, snow-covered surfaces. Secondary effects exacerbate the hazards, as the quick onset of heavy, wet snow loads structures and utilities. Rapid accumulations have caused collapses in regions unaccustomed to such sudden weights, with incidents reported during intense winter storms featuring thundersnow. Additionally, the dense, moist clings to power lines and trees, resulting in widespread outages; a 2024 thundersnow event near downed branches and disrupted electricity for thousands.

Lightning, Winds, and Other Risks

Thundersnow events present unique hazards beyond heavy , primarily through electrical discharges and dynamic wind phenomena that can catch people off guard due to the rarity of winter thunderstorms. during thundersnow can strike the ground even amidst falling snow, posing risks to individuals outdoors and indoors if structures are hit, as the electrical discharge follows the through conductive pathways like or wiring. In these storms, cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes constitute approximately 24% of total activity during the cold season, with intracloud flashes dominating the rest, though positive CG strikes—known for greater destructive potential—account for about 20.7% of CG events. Snow's potential conductivity, especially when wet, can exacerbate indoor risks, as strikes may travel through building materials. The infrequency of thundersnow contributes to fewer specific lightning warnings being issued compared to summer thunderstorms, increasing the surprise factor and potential for injuries; for instance, very few U.S. lightning deaths occur in December through February, representing less than 1% based on historical data. Documented injuries from winter lightning are rare but severe, with reports of , burns, and neurological damage similar to summer strikes, though the cold environment compounds complications like shock. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes that lightning causes approximately 20 to 30 deaths and hundreds of injuries annually in the U.S. as of 2024, with roughly one-third occurring indoors, a statistic applicable to thundersnow where people may seek shelter without recognizing the electrical threat. Lightning fatalities in the U.S. have declined from historical averages of around 40 per year to about 20-30 annually as of 2024, thanks to improved safety measures. Wind hazards in thundersnow arise from downdrafts and microbursts, which can generate gusts up to 50 mph (80 km/h). Ridge tops experience amplified wind speeds and gusts due to exposure, particularly in mountainous areas prone to orographic thundersnow. These intense, localized winds, akin to those in summer thunderstorms, lead to structural damage, fallen trees, and power outages. They pose significant risks to , where sudden shear can endanger low-flying , and to ground travel by reducing and causing hazards. Additional risks include the occasional mixing of —soft, rimed snow pellets resembling small —with snowfall, formed when supercooled droplets freeze onto snow crystals in the convective updrafts of thundersnow. While is less damaging than true due to its fragility, it can create slippery surfaces and, in mountainous areas, contribute to triggers by forming weak layers in the . Thundersnow's association with moist air often results in wetter snow than typical winter storms, accelerating risk for exposed individuals, as wet clothing loses insulation and promotes rapid heat loss even at temperatures above freezing. Furthermore, CG strikes in the dry, cold air of winter can ignite fires in vegetation or structures, with potential for rapid spread due to low humidity, though such incidents remain uncommon.

Observation and Impacts

Detection and Forecasting

Detection of thundersnow events primarily relies on integrated observations from , , and lightning detection networks to identify convective activity during snowfall. systems detect characteristic signatures such as elevated vertically integrated liquid (VIL) density values, indicating strong updrafts within snow-bearing clouds, which help distinguish thundersnow from non-convective . infrared imagery reveals overshooting tops as cold anomalies in cloud-top temperatures, signaling intense even in winter conditions. Ground-based networks like the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) capture cloud-to-ground flashes during , confirming , while the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on GOES satellites provides total data, including jumps in flash rates that precede intensification. A dedicated thundersnow detection algorithm combining GLM flash rates with multi-sensor snowfall rates achieves a probability of detection around 67%. Forecasting thundersnow involves high-resolution numerical models like the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with advanced microphysics schemes such as Thompson or WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6) to simulate snow production and charge separation in cold environments. These schemes capture hydrometeor interactions essential for winter , though challenges persist in resolving low-level instability within cold sectors, where shallow boundary layers and weak updrafts are often underrepresented due to model grid limitations and parameterization biases. Elevated in these sectors requires fine-scale resolution (e.g., 1-3 km grids) to accurately predict potential amid falling . Warning systems for thundersnow are integrated into broader alerts by the (NWS), with criteria focusing on convective indices like exceeding 250 J/kg combined with ongoing to signal potential electrification in snow events. Under-forecasting remains common due to model biases in simulating wintertime , where low values (typically 100-500 J/kg) and stable surface layers mask the risk of sudden bursts. Alerts emphasize rapid onset hazards, drawing on real-time data to refine warnings. Post-2020 advances in have enhanced nowcasting of thunderstorms by integrating multi-source data for short-term predictions, with tools like ThunderCast providing lead times of up to 60 minutes for convective initiation through on and patterns. These AI models improve detection of subtle signals in cold-season forecasts. One of the most notable thundersnow events in North American history occurred during the November 2014 lake-effect snowstorm in , where intense snowfall rates reached up to 3 feet (about 1 meter) in 24 hours in some areas, accompanied by thunder and , leading to total accumulations exceeding 7 feet (2.1 meters) in parts of Erie County over several days. This event paralyzed transportation, caused 13 deaths, and required emergency rescues, highlighting the hazards of rapid thundersnow accumulation. In , a significant thundersnow outbreak struck on January 17, 2022, as a strong moved across and surrounding regions, producing widespread and heavy that disrupted power and travel. is influencing thundersnow through warmer regional air temperatures, which have risen by about 2.9°F (1.6°C) since 1951, enhancing evaporation and energy input for lake-effect storms by up to 20% as noted in assessments aligned with IPCC AR6 findings on regional warming. This warming, coupled with reduced ice cover—projected to drop to 3-15% by century's end—has likely increased the intensity of events, including those with convective elements like thundersnow. Arctic amplification further drives more frequent synoptic-scale extremes in mid-latitudes, potentially elevating thundersnow occurrences by fostering unstable winter atmospheres. Observational studies indicate a rise in winter thunderstorm frequency across North American mid-latitudes since the late , with one analysis linking this to broader convective trends amid global warming, though global monitoring gaps persist due to thundersnow's rarity (less than 0.07% of events). A 2024 study on formation, a key thundersnow precursor, reported a 7.1% global increase in rates since pre-industrial times, attributed to warmer conditions. In January 2025, thundersnow accompanied a major across the Midwest and East Coast of the , contributing to heavy snowfall, power outages, and hazardous conditions. Projections for mid-latitudes by 2050 anticipate higher thundersnow risks from intensified lake-effect processes and extreme , with implications for urban areas like Buffalo requiring enhanced preparedness for heavier, more convective snowfalls. These trends underscore the need for improved monitoring to address gaps in global thundersnow documentation.

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