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Crossover study
View on WikipediaThis article includes a list of general references, but it lacks sufficient corresponding inline citations. (April 2013) |
In medicine, a crossover study or crossover trial is a longitudinal study in which subjects receive a sequence of different treatments (or exposures). While crossover studies can be observational studies, many important crossover studies are controlled experiments, which are discussed in this article. Crossover designs are common for experiments in many scientific disciplines, for example psychology, pharmaceutical science, and medicine.
Randomized, controlled crossover experiments are especially important in health care. In a randomized clinical trial, the subjects are randomly assigned to different arms of the study which receive different treatments. When the trial has a repeated measures design, the same measures are collected multiple times for each subject. A crossover trial has a repeated measures design in which each patient is assigned to a sequence of two or more treatments, of which one may be a standard treatment or a placebo.
Nearly all crossover are designed to have "balance", whereby all subjects receive the same number of treatments and participate for the same number of periods. In most crossover trials each subject receives all treatments, in a random order.
Statisticians suggest that designs should have four periods, which is more efficient than the two-period design, even if the study must be truncated to three periods.[1][2] However, the two-period design is often taught in non-statistical textbooks, partly because of its simplicity.
Analysis
[edit]The data is analyzed using the statistical method that was specified in the clinical trial protocol, which must have been approved by the appropriate institutional review boards and regulatory agencies before the trial can begin. Most clinical trials are analyzed using repeated-measurements ANOVA (analysis of variance) or mixed models that include random effects.
In most longitudinal studies of human subjects, patients may withdraw from the trial or become "lost to follow-up". There are statistical methods for dealing with such missing-data and "censoring" problems. An important method analyzes the data according to the principle of the intention to treat.
Advantages
[edit]A crossover study has two advantages over both a parallel study and a non-crossover longitudinal study. First, the influence of confounding covariates is reduced because each crossover patient serves as their own control.[3] In a randomized non-crossover study it is often the case that different treatment-groups are found to be unbalanced on some covariates. In a controlled, randomized crossover designs, such imbalances are implausible (unless covariates were to change systematically during the study).
Second, optimal crossover designs are statistically efficient, and so require fewer subjects than do non-crossover designs (even other repeated measures designs).
Optimal crossover designs are discussed in the graduate textbook by Jones and Kenward and in the review article by Stufken. Crossover designs are discussed along with more general repeated-measurements designs in the graduate textbook by Vonesh and Chinchilli.
Limitations and disadvantages
[edit]These studies are often done to improve the symptoms of patients with chronic conditions. For curative treatments or rapidly changing conditions, cross-over trials may be infeasible or unethical.
Crossover studies often have two problems:
First is the issue of "order" effects, because it is possible that the order in which treatments are administered may affect the outcome. An example might be a drug with many adverse effects given first, making patients taking a second, less harmful medicine, more sensitive to any adverse effect.
Second is the issue of "carry-over" between treatments, which confounds the estimates of the treatment effects. In practice, "carry-over" effects can be avoided with a sufficiently long "wash-out" period between treatments. However, planning for sufficiently long wash-out periods requires expert knowledge of the dynamics of the treatment, which is often unknown.
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- M. Bose and A. Dey (2009). Optimal Crossover Designs. World Scientific. ISBN 978-9812818423
- D. E. Johnson (2010). Crossover experiments. WIREs Comp Stat, 2: 620-625. [1]
- Jones, Byron; Kenward, Michael G. (2014). Design and Analysis of Cross-Over Trials (Third ed.). London: Chapman and Hall. ISBN 978-0412606403.
{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: publisher location (link) - K.-J. Lui, (2016). Crossover Designs: Testing, Estimation, and Sample Size. Wiley.
- Najafi Mehdi, (2004). Statistical Questions in Evidence Based Medicine. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-262992-1
- D. Raghavarao and L. Padgett (2014). Repeated Measurements and Cross-Over Designs. Wiley. ISBN 978-1-118-70925-2
- D. A. Ratkowsky, M. A. Evans, and J. R. Alldredge (1992). Cross-Over Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Application. Marcel Dekker. ISBN 978-0824788926
- Senn, S. (2002). Cross-Over Trials in Clinical Research, Second edition. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-49653-3
- Stufken, J. (1996). "Optimal Crossover Designs". In Ghosh, S.; Rao, C. R. (eds.). Design and Analysis of Experiments. Handbook of Statistics. Vol. 13. North-Holland. pp. 63–90. ISBN 978-0-444-82061-7.
- Vonesh, Edward F.; Chinchilli, Vernon G. (1997). "Crossover Experiments". Linear and Nonlinear Models for the Analysis of Repeated Measurements. London: Chapman and Hall. pp. 111–202. ISBN 978-0824782481.
{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: publisher location (link)
Crossover study
View on GrokipediaIntroduction
Definition and Purpose
A crossover study is a longitudinal research design in which each participant serves as their own control by sequentially receiving two or more different treatments or interventions over specified periods, typically with intervening washout phases to mitigate potential carryover effects from prior treatments.[1][2] This approach allows for within-subject comparisons, where the order of treatment administration is randomized across participants to balance sequences and reduce systematic biases.[5] The primary purpose of a crossover study is to enhance the precision of treatment effect estimates by minimizing inter-subject variability, as the same individuals experience all conditions, thereby increasing statistical power and requiring fewer participants compared to designs relying on between-subject comparisons.[5][7] This efficiency is particularly valuable in clinical and experimental settings where individual differences, such as genetic or environmental factors, could otherwise confound results and inflate sample size requirements.[2] Key principles underpinning crossover studies include the randomization of treatment sequences to prevent order effects, the implementation of blinding to maintain objectivity where feasible, and the careful balancing of treatment orders across participants to avoid period or sequence biases.[5][2] Originating in mid-19th-century agricultural experiments to optimize resource use in field trials, the design gained prominence in medical research after the 1950s as statistical methods advanced and its utility for drug comparisons became evident.[8][9]Comparison to Other Study Designs
Crossover studies differ from parallel-group designs in that the latter assign different groups of participants to receive distinct treatments simultaneously, which introduces between-subject variability and often requires larger sample sizes to achieve adequate statistical power.[10] In contrast, crossover designs minimize this variability through within-subject comparisons, where each participant receives all treatments in sequence, allowing each individual to serve as their own control and thereby enhancing precision.[11] This within-subject approach typically results in higher efficiency, with crossover trials requiring approximately 50% fewer participants than parallel-group trials to detect the same treatment effect size, assuming no significant carryover effects.[12] Compared to general repeated-measures designs, which involve multiple observations on the same subjects over time and can include non-interventional factors like time or environmental changes, crossover studies represent a specialized subset that specifically sequences different treatments to directly compare their effects within individuals.[13] While repeated-measures designs broadly capture intra-subject correlations without necessarily involving treatment alternation, crossover designs emphasize randomized treatment orders to control for period and sequence effects in interventional contexts.[14] Crossover designs are particularly suitable for evaluating treatments in chronic, stable conditions where the intervention's effects are short-acting and reversible, such as certain pain management therapies or pharmacokinetic assessments, as this allows for complete washout between periods.[2] They are less appropriate for acute illnesses, fluctuating symptoms, or scenarios involving irreversible treatment effects, like surgical interventions, where carryover or progression could confound results.[15]Study Design
Key Elements
In a crossover study, treatment sequences refer to the ordered assignment of interventions to participants, typically randomized to balance potential biases. For instance, in a two-treatment, two-period design, participants are allocated to either sequence AB (receiving treatment A followed by treatment B) or BA (treatment B followed by A), with randomization ensuring an equal number in each sequence to mitigate order effects.[2][3] Washout periods are critical intervals between consecutive treatments, during which no intervention is administered, to minimize carryover effects from prior treatments. The duration is generally calculated as a multiple of the treatment's elimination half-life, with a minimum of three to five half-lives recommended to allow residual effects to dissipate and return outcomes to baseline; for example, a drug with a 24-hour half-life might require a 5–7 day washout.[2][3][16] Period effects encompass time-dependent variations in responses across study periods, such as disease progression, seasonal influences, or participant fatigue, which must be accounted for in the design to avoid confounding treatment comparisons. These effects are addressed by structuring periods uniformly within sequences and using within-subject analyses that inherently control for them.[2][15] Randomization and balancing involve randomly assigning participants to treatment sequences in equal proportions to counteract sequence or order biases, ensuring that each sequence has the same number of subjects for unbiased estimation of treatment differences. This approach reduces selection bias and supports the validity of subsequent statistical inferences.[2][5] Sample size considerations in crossover studies leverage the within-subject design to achieve greater efficiency than parallel designs, focusing on the lower within-subject variance for power calculations. A common formula for the total sample size in a two-period, two-treatment crossover is: where is the critical value for type I error, for power, is the within-subject variance, and is the minimum detectable treatment difference; this is adjusted for crossover efficiency, often requiring roughly half the sample size of a parallel-group study assuming moderate correlation between periods.[11][3]Types of Crossover Designs
Crossover designs vary in complexity to accommodate different numbers of treatments, periods, and subjects, allowing researchers to balance factors such as carryover effects and period biases while maintaining efficiency.[17] The simplest and most commonly used variant is the two-period, two-treatment design, often denoted as AB/BA, where subjects are randomized into two sequences: one group receives treatment A in the first period followed by treatment B in the second (AB sequence), and the other group receives B followed by A (BA sequence).[2] This design ensures each subject serves as their own control, reducing inter-subject variability, and is particularly suitable for direct comparisons between two treatments, such as assessing relative bioavailability of drug formulations.[18] A washout period between treatments helps mitigate carryover effects in this structure.[17] For studies involving more than two treatments, higher-order crossover designs extend the principle to multiple periods and sequences, such as three-period designs with sequences like ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, and CBA.[17] These designs allow each subject to receive all treatments across periods, enabling comprehensive pairwise comparisons while controlling for sequence and period effects through balanced randomization.[19] They are useful when evaluating multiple interventions, though they require larger sample sizes to achieve balance and may increase the risk of dropout or carryover if periods are extended.[17] Latin square designs provide a structured approach for trials with multiple treatments (k > 2) over an equal number of periods, where each treatment appears exactly once in each row (subject) and each column (period) across the design matrix.[19] This arrangement ensures balanced exposure, minimizing biases from subject-period interactions, and is often implemented as a k × k square for k treatments.[17] Variants like the Williams design, a type of Latin square, further balance first-order carryover effects by ensuring no treatment immediately follows itself in any sequence. Latin squares are well-suited for dose-response studies in pharmacokinetics, where escalating doses must be compared within subjects to model concentration-time profiles efficiently.[20] When the number of treatments exceeds the feasible number of periods or subjects, balanced incomplete block designs (BIBD) are employed, treating subjects as blocks and sequences as incomplete sets where not every treatment is received by every subject, but each pair of treatments appears together an equal number of times.[21] In crossover contexts, these designs construct balanced sequences to minimize biases from missing treatment combinations, using parameters like block size (v treatments), replication (r times per treatment), and lambda (λ pairwise comparisons).[22] For instance, a BIBD with v=4 treatments and block size k=3 might use sequences that cover all pairs equally across subjects, making it ideal for resource-limited studies with unequal treatment allocations.[21] This approach maintains statistical power despite incompleteness, though it requires careful construction to avoid confounding.[22]Statistical Analysis
Addressing Confounding Effects
In crossover studies, confounding effects such as carryover, period, and sequence biases can distort estimates of treatment differences if not properly addressed during analysis. These effects arise from the repeated measures nature of the design, where treatments are administered sequentially to the same subjects, potentially leading to residual influences or systematic variations across periods. Detection and mitigation strategies are essential to ensure valid inferences, typically involving statistical tests, model adjustments, and diagnostic tools tailored to the specific confounder.[23] Carryover effects occur when the influence of a treatment from a previous period persists into the subsequent period, biasing the observed response in the later phase. For instance, in a two-treatment, two-period design, this residual effect can confound the direct treatment comparison by inflating or deflating responses in the second period. Detection often relies on pre-treatment baseline measurements to assess residual influences or statistical tests such as a t-test comparing outcomes between sequences in the second period to identify differential carryover. If significant carryover is detected, analysts may restrict inference to the first period only, discarding second-period data to avoid bias. The seminal Grizzle test formalizes this approach by first testing for carryover using an analysis of data from both periods, such as a t-test on the treatment-by-period interaction; if non-significant, it proceeds to estimate treatment effects using the full dataset.[23][3][24] Period effects represent systematic differences in responses across treatment periods, independent of the treatments themselves, often due to temporal factors like disease progression or environmental changes. These can be adjusted for by incorporating period as a fixed effect in the statistical model, allowing estimation of treatment effects while accounting for period-specific shifts. For example, in a general linear model, the period term isolates these variations, enabling unbiased treatment comparisons across sequences. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is commonly used to test the significance of period effects, with non-significant results supporting the assumption of uniformity.[2] Sequence effects arise from the order in which treatments are administered, potentially introducing bias if the design does not balance sequences equally. Mitigation primarily occurs through balanced randomization at the design stage, ensuring equal numbers of subjects in each sequence (e.g., AB and BA), which orthogonalizes sequence effects from treatment comparisons in balanced designs. While sequence effects are assumed absent under proper randomization, they cannot always be statistically tested directly; instead, their impact is evaluated indirectly through model residuals or sequence-stratified analyses.[23][2] Other confounders, such as subject-by-treatment interactions, reflect heterogeneity in treatment responses across individuals, which can mimic or exacerbate carryover biases. These interactions are tested using ANOVA to assess variance components for subject-specific treatment effects, identifying if individual differences significantly modify outcomes. If detected, subgroup analyses or mixed-effects models with random interaction terms may be employed to model this heterogeneity without discarding data.[25][23] Diagnostic approaches complement statistical tests by providing visual insights into potential confounders. Graphical methods, such as period-treatment interaction plots (e.g., boxplots of responses by period and treatment), help identify patterns like diverging trends indicative of carryover or period shifts. The Grizzle test integrates such diagnostics within its two-stage procedure, combining t-tests with residual plots for comprehensive evaluation. These tools, often implemented in software like SAS PROC GLM or MIXED, facilitate early detection before full analysis.[3][2]Analytical Methods and Models
Mixed-effects models form the cornerstone of statistical analysis in crossover studies, accommodating the correlated nature of repeated measurements within subjects through random effects for subjects and fixed effects for treatments, periods, and interactions. These models enable robust estimation of treatment effects while controlling for potential period biases and individual variability. A general formulation for the response in a crossover design is given by the linear mixed model: where represents the observed response for the -th subject in the -th period under the -th treatment, is the grand mean, is the fixed treatment effect, is the fixed period effect, is the random subject effect, is the fixed treatment-by-period interaction, and is the residual error. This structure assumes independence across subjects and periods conditional on fixed effects, with estimation typically via restricted maximum likelihood (REML) to handle unbalanced data or missing observations.[26][27][2] For simpler two-period, two-treatment (2x2) crossover designs, analysis of variance (ANOVA) provides an accessible method to decompose the total variability into components for treatments, periods, subjects (nested within sequences), and residuals, facilitating tests of treatment differences via the mean square for treatments divided by the residual mean square. This approach assumes normality and sphericity but offers straightforward F-tests for fixed effects, with subject variability partitioned to enhance precision over parallel designs. In practice, the ANOVA framework underlies many software implementations and is particularly useful when interactions are minimal or absent.[27][17] When parametric assumptions such as normality fail or data are ordinal, non-parametric methods like the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are applied to the within-subject differences between treatments, providing a distribution-free assessment of the median treatment effect while accounting for paired structure. This test ranks the absolute differences and signs them according to direction, offering robustness to outliers and non-normal distributions common in small crossover samples. It is especially valuable in early-phase trials or with skewed outcomes, though it requires symmetric difference distributions for validity.[28] Implementation of these analyses is facilitated by statistical software such as R's lme4 package for fitting mixed-effects models via thelmer function, which supports complex random structures and REML estimation for crossover data. Similarly, SAS PROC MIXED offers versatile tools for specifying fixed and random effects in crossover settings, including options for handling unequal periods or dropouts through covariance structures like unstructured or compound symmetry. These tools automate variance component estimation and hypothesis testing, with lme4 emphasizing open-source flexibility and PROC MIXED providing robust integration with clinical trial datasets.[29][30]
Power and sample size planning in crossover studies must incorporate intra-subject correlation , which reflects the similarity of measurements within individuals and drives efficiency gains over parallel designs. The variance of the treatment effect estimator is reduced by a factor of (1 - ρ)/2 relative to a parallel design, so the required sample size is (1 - ρ)/2 times that of a parallel design for equivalent power. For instance, with ρ = 0.5, this quarters the required size compared to independent groups. Calculations typically use simulation or analytic formulas based on mixed models, adjusting for dropout rates and ensuring adequate power (e.g., 80-90%) to detect clinically meaningful effects while briefly accounting for potential carryover via sensitivity analyses.[31][27]
