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Sampling (statistics)
View on WikipediaIn statistics, quality assurance, and survey methodology, sampling is the selection of a subset or a statistical sample (termed sample for short) of individuals from within a statistical population to estimate characteristics of the whole population. The subset is meant to reflect the whole population, and statisticians attempt to collect samples that are representative of the population. Sampling has lower costs and faster data collection compared to recording data from the entire population (in many cases, collecting the whole population is impossible, like getting sizes of all stars in the universe), and thus, it can provide insights in cases where it is infeasible to measure an entire population.
Each observation measures one or more properties (such as weight, location, colour or mass) of independent objects or individuals. In survey sampling, weights can be applied to the data to adjust for the sample design, particularly in stratified sampling.[1] Results from probability theory and statistical theory are employed to guide the practice. In business and medical research, sampling is widely used for gathering information about a population.[2] Acceptance sampling is used to determine if a production lot of material meets the governing specifications.
History
[edit]Random sampling by using lots is an old idea, mentioned several times in the Bible. In 1786, Pierre Simon Laplace estimated the population of France by using a sample, along with ratio estimator. He also computed probabilistic estimates of the error. These were not expressed as modern confidence intervals but as the sample size that would be needed to achieve a particular upper bound on the sampling error with probability 1000/1001. His estimates used Bayes' theorem with a uniform prior probability and assumed that his sample was random. Alexander Ivanovich Chuprov introduced sample surveys to Imperial Russia in the 1870s.[3]
In the US, the 1936 Literary Digest prediction of a Republican win in the presidential election went badly awry, due to severe bias [1]. More than two million people responded to the study with their names obtained through magazine subscription lists and telephone directories. It was not appreciated that these lists were heavily biased towards Republicans and the resulting sample, though very large, was deeply flawed.[4][5]
Elections in Singapore have adopted this practice since the 2015 election, also known as the sample counts, whereas according to the Elections Department (ELD), their country's election commission, sample counts help reduce speculation and misinformation, while helping election officials to check against the election result for that electoral division. While the reported sample counts yield a fairly accurate indicative result with a 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval, ELD reminded the public that sample counts are separate from official results, and only the returning officer will declare the official results once vote counting is complete.[6][7]
Population definition
[edit]Successful statistical practice is based on focused problem definition. In sampling, this includes defining the "population" from which our sample is drawn. A population can be defined as including all people or items with the characteristics one wishes to understand. Because there is very rarely enough time or money to gather information from everyone or everything in a population, the goal becomes finding a representative sample (or subset) of that population.
Sometimes what defines a population is obvious. For example, a manufacturer needs to decide whether a batch of material from production is of high enough quality to be released to the customer or should be scrapped or reworked due to poor quality. In this case, the batch is the population.
Although the population of interest often consists of physical objects, sometimes it is necessary to sample over time, space, or some combination of these dimensions. For instance, an investigation of supermarket staffing could examine checkout line length at various times, or a study on endangered penguins might aim to understand their usage of various hunting grounds over time. For the time dimension, the focus may be on periods or discrete occasions.
In other cases, the examined 'population' may be even less tangible. For example, Joseph Jagger studied the behaviour of roulette wheels at a casino in Monte Carlo, and used this to identify a biased wheel. In this case, the 'population' Jagger wanted to investigate was the overall behaviour of the wheel (i.e. the probability distribution of its results over infinitely many trials), while his 'sample' was formed from observed results from that wheel. Similar considerations arise when taking repeated measurements of properties of materials such as the electrical conductivity of copper.
This situation often arises when seeking knowledge about the cause system of which the observed population is an outcome. In such cases, sampling theory may treat the observed population as a sample from a larger 'superpopulation'. For example, a researcher might study the success rate of a new 'quit smoking' program on a test group of 100 patients, in order to predict the effects of the program if it were made available nationwide. Here the superpopulation is "everybody in the country, given access to this treatment" – a group that does not yet exist since the program is not yet available to all.
The population from which the sample is drawn may not be the same as the population from which information is desired. Often there is a large but not complete overlap between these two groups due to frame issues etc. (see below). Sometimes they may be entirely separate – for instance, one might study rats in order to get a better understanding of human health, or one might study records from people born in 2008 in order to make predictions about people born in 2009.
Time spent in making the sampled population and population of concern precise is often well spent because it raises many issues, ambiguities, and questions that would otherwise have been overlooked at this stage.
Sampling frame
[edit]In the most straightforward case, such as the sampling of a batch of material from production (acceptance sampling by lots), it would be most desirable to identify and measure every single item in the population and to include any one of them in our sample. However, in the more general case this is not usually possible or practical. There is no way to identify all rats in the set of all rats. Where voting is not compulsory, there is no way to identify which people will vote at a forthcoming election (in advance of the election). These imprecise populations are not amenable to sampling in any of the ways below and to which we could apply statistical theory.
As a remedy, we seek a sampling frame which has the property that we can identify every single element and include any in our sample.[8][9][10][11] The most straightforward type of frame is a list of elements of the population (preferably the entire population) with appropriate contact information. For example, in an opinion poll, possible sampling frames include an electoral register and a telephone directory.
A probability sample is a sample in which every unit in the population has a chance (greater than zero) of being selected in the sample, and this probability can be accurately determined. The combination of these traits makes it possible to produce unbiased estimates of population totals, by weighting sampled units according to their probability of selection.
Example: We want to estimate the total income of adults living in a given street. We visit each household in that street, identify all adults living there, and randomly select one adult from each household. (For example, we can allocate each person a random number, generated from a uniform distribution between 0 and 1, and select the person with the highest number in each household). We then interview the selected person and find their income.
People living on their own are certain to be selected, so we simply add their income to our estimate of the total. But a person living in a household of two adults has only a one-in-two chance of selection. To reflect this, when we come to such a household, we would count the selected person's income twice towards the total. (The person who is selected from that household can be loosely viewed as also representing the person who isn't selected.)
In the above example, not everybody has the same probability of selection; what makes it a probability sample is the fact that each person's probability is known. When every element in the population does have the same probability of selection, this is known as an 'equal probability of selection' (EPS) design. Such designs are also referred to as 'self-weighting' because all sampled units are given the same weight.
Probability sampling includes: simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, probability-proportional-to-size sampling, and cluster or multistage sampling. These various ways of probability sampling have two things in common:
- Every element has a known nonzero probability of being sampled and
- involves random selection at some point.
Nonprobability sampling
[edit]Nonprobability sampling is any sampling method where some elements of the population have no chance of selection (these are sometimes referred to as 'out of coverage'/'undercovered'), or where the probability of selection cannot be accurately determined. It involves the selection of elements based on assumptions regarding the population of interest, which forms the criteria for selection. Hence, because the selection of elements is nonrandom, nonprobability sampling does not allow the estimation of sampling errors. These conditions give rise to exclusion bias, placing limits on how much information a sample can provide about the population. Information about the relationship between sample and population is limited, making it difficult to extrapolate from the sample to the population.
Example: We visit every household in a given street, and interview the first person to answer the door. In any household with more than one occupant, this is a nonprobability sample, because some people are more likely to answer the door (e.g. an unemployed person who spends most of their time at home is more likely to answer than an employed housemate who might be at work when the interviewer calls) and it's not practical to calculate these probabilities.
Nonprobability sampling methods include convenience sampling, quota sampling, and purposive sampling. In addition, nonresponse effects may turn any probability design into a nonprobability design if the characteristics of nonresponse are not well understood, since nonresponse effectively modifies each element's probability of being sampled.
Sampling methods
[edit]Within any of the types of frames identified above, a variety of sampling methods can be employed individually or in combination. Factors commonly influencing the choice between these designs include:
- Nature and quality of the frame
- Availability of auxiliary information about units on the frame
- Accuracy requirements, and the need to measure accuracy
- Whether detailed analysis of the sample is expected
- Cost/operational concerns
Simple random sampling
[edit]In a simple random sample (SRS) of a given size, all subsets of a sampling frame have an equal probability of being selected. Each element of the frame thus has an equal probability of selection: the frame is not subdivided or partitioned. Furthermore, any given pair of elements has the same chance of selection as any other such pair (and similarly for triples, and so on). This minimizes bias and simplifies analysis of results. In particular, the variance between individual results within the sample is a good indicator of variance in the overall population, which makes it relatively easy to estimate the accuracy of results.
Simple random sampling can be vulnerable to sampling error because the randomness of the selection may result in a sample that does not reflect the makeup of the population. For instance, a simple random sample of ten people from a given country will on average produce five men and five women, but any given trial is likely to over represent one sex and underrepresent the other. Systematic and stratified techniques attempt to overcome this problem by "using information about the population" to choose a more "representative" sample.
Also, simple random sampling can be cumbersome and tedious when sampling from a large target population. In some cases, investigators are interested in research questions specific to subgroups of the population. For example, researchers might be interested in examining whether cognitive ability as a predictor of job performance is equally applicable across racial groups. Simple random sampling cannot accommodate the needs of researchers in this situation, because it does not provide subsamples of the population, and other sampling strategies, such as stratified sampling, can be used instead.
Systematic sampling
[edit]Systematic sampling (also known as interval sampling) relies on arranging the study population according to some ordering scheme, and then selecting elements at regular intervals through that ordered list. Systematic sampling involves a random start and then proceeds with the selection of every kth element from then onwards. In this case, k=(population size/sample size). It is important that the starting point is not automatically the first in the list, but is instead randomly chosen from within the first to the kth element in the list. A simple example would be to select every 10th name from the telephone directory (an 'every 10th' sample, also referred to as 'sampling with a skip of 10').
As long as the starting point is randomized, systematic sampling is a type of probability sampling. It is easy to implement and the stratification induced can make it efficient, if the variable by which the list is ordered is correlated with the variable of interest. 'Every 10th' sampling is especially useful for efficient sampling from databases.
For example, suppose we wish to sample people from a long street that starts in a poor area (house No. 1) and ends in an expensive district (house No. 1000). A simple random selection of addresses from this street could easily end up with too many from the high end and too few from the low end (or vice versa), leading to an unrepresentative sample. Selecting (e.g.) every 10th street number along the street ensures that the sample is spread evenly along the length of the street, representing all of these districts. (If we always start at house #1 and end at #991, the sample is slightly biased towards the low end; by randomly selecting the start between #1 and #10, this bias is eliminated.)
However, systematic sampling is especially vulnerable to periodicities in the list. If periodicity is present and the period is a multiple or factor of the interval used, the sample is especially likely to be unrepresentative of the overall population, making the scheme less accurate than simple random sampling.
For example, consider a street where the odd-numbered houses are all on the north (expensive) side of the road, and the even-numbered houses are all on the south (cheap) side. Under the sampling scheme given above, it is impossible to get a representative sample; either the houses sampled will all be from the odd-numbered, expensive side, or they will all be from the even-numbered, cheap side, unless the researcher has previous knowledge of this bias and avoids it by a using a skip which ensures jumping between the two sides (any odd-numbered skip).
Another drawback of systematic sampling is that even in scenarios where it is more accurate than SRS, its theoretical properties make it difficult to quantify that accuracy. (In the two examples of systematic sampling that are given above, much of the potential sampling error is due to variation between neighbouring houses – but because this method never selects two neighbouring houses, the sample will not give us any information on that variation.)
As described above, systematic sampling is an EPS method, because all elements have the same probability of selection (in the example given, one in ten). It is not 'simple random sampling' because different subsets of the same size have different selection probabilities – e.g. the set {4,14,24,...,994} has a one-in-ten probability of selection, but the set {4,13,24,34,...} has zero probability of selection.
Systematic sampling can also be adapted to a non-EPS approach; for an example, see discussion of PPS samples below.
Stratified sampling
[edit]When the population embraces a number of distinct categories, the frame can be organized by these categories into separate "strata." Each stratum is then sampled as an independent sub-population, out of which individual elements can be randomly selected.[8] The ratio of the size of this random selection (or sample) to the size of the population is called a sampling fraction.[12] There are several potential benefits to stratified sampling.[12]
First, dividing the population into distinct, independent strata can enable researchers to draw inferences about specific subgroups that may be lost in a more generalized random sample.
Second, utilizing a stratified sampling method can lead to more efficient statistical estimates (provided that strata are selected based upon relevance to the criterion in question, instead of availability of the samples). Even if a stratified sampling approach does not lead to increased statistical efficiency, such a tactic will not result in less efficiency than would simple random sampling, provided that each stratum is proportional to the group's size in the population.
Third, it is sometimes the case that data are more readily available for individual, pre-existing strata within a population than for the overall population; in such cases, using a stratified sampling approach may be more convenient than aggregating data across groups (though this may potentially be at odds with the previously noted importance of utilizing criterion-relevant strata).
Finally, since each stratum is treated as an independent population, different sampling approaches can be applied to different strata, potentially enabling researchers to use the approach best suited (or most cost-effective) for each identified subgroup within the population.
There are, however, some potential drawbacks to using stratified sampling. First, identifying strata and implementing such an approach can increase the cost and complexity of sample selection, as well as leading to increased complexity of population estimates. Second, when examining multiple criteria, stratifying variables may be related to some, but not to others, further complicating the design, and potentially reducing the utility of the strata. Finally, in some cases (such as designs with a large number of strata, or those with a specified minimum sample size per group), stratified sampling can potentially require a larger sample than would other methods (although in most cases, the required sample size would be no larger than would be required for simple random sampling).
- A stratified sampling approach is most effective when three conditions are met
- Variability within strata are minimized
- Variability between strata are maximized
- The variables upon which the population is stratified are strongly correlated with the desired dependent variable.
- Advantages over other sampling methods
- Focuses on important subpopulations and ignores irrelevant ones.
- Allows use of different sampling techniques for different subpopulations.
- Improves the accuracy/efficiency of estimation.
- Permits greater balancing of statistical power of tests of differences between strata by sampling equal numbers from strata varying widely in size.
- Disadvantages
- Requires selection of relevant stratification variables which can be difficult.
- Is not useful when there are no homogeneous subgroups.
- Can be expensive to implement.
- Poststratification
Stratification is sometimes introduced after the sampling phase in a process called "poststratification".[8] This approach is typically implemented due to a lack of prior knowledge of an appropriate stratifying variable or when the experimenter lacks the necessary information to create a stratifying variable during the sampling phase. Although the method is susceptible to the pitfalls of post hoc approaches, it can provide several benefits in the right situation. Implementation usually follows a simple random sample. In addition to allowing for stratification on an ancillary variable, poststratification can be used to implement weighting, which can improve the precision of a sample's estimates.[8]
- Oversampling
Choice-based sampling or oversampling is one of the stratified sampling strategies. In choice-based sampling,[13] the data are stratified on the target and a sample is taken from each stratum so that rarer target classes will be more represented in the sample. The model is then built on this biased sample. The effects of the input variables on the target are often estimated with more precision with the choice-based sample even when a smaller overall sample size is taken, compared to a random sample. The results usually must be adjusted to correct for the oversampling.
Probability-proportional-to-size sampling
[edit]In some cases the sample designer has access to an "auxiliary variable" or "size measure", believed to be correlated to the variable of interest, for each element in the population. These data can be used to improve accuracy in sample design. One option is to use the auxiliary variable as a basis for stratification, as discussed above.
Another option is probability proportional to size ('PPS') sampling, in which the selection probability for each element is set to be proportional to its size measure, up to a maximum of 1. In a simple PPS design, these selection probabilities can then be used as the basis for Poisson sampling. However, this has the drawback of variable sample size, and different portions of the population may still be over- or under-represented due to chance variation in selections.
Systematic sampling theory can be used to create a probability proportionate to size sample. This is done by treating each count within the size variable as a single sampling unit. Samples are then identified by selecting at even intervals among these counts within the size variable. This method is sometimes called PPS-sequential or monetary unit sampling in the case of audits or forensic sampling.
Example: Suppose we have six schools with populations of 150, 180, 200, 220, 260, and 490 students respectively (total 1500 students), and we want to use student population as the basis for a PPS sample of size three. To do this, we could allocate the first school numbers 1 to 150, the second school 151 to 330 (= 150 + 180), the third school 331 to 530, and so on to the last school (1011 to 1500). We then generate a random start between 1 and 500 (equal to 1500/3) and count through the school populations by multiples of 500. If our random start was 137, we would select the schools which have been allocated numbers 137, 637, and 1137, i.e. the first, fourth, and sixth schools.
The PPS approach can improve accuracy for a given sample size by concentrating sample on large elements that have the greatest impact on population estimates. PPS sampling is commonly used for surveys of businesses, where element size varies greatly and auxiliary information is often available – for instance, a survey attempting to measure the number of guest-nights spent in hotels might use each hotel's number of rooms as an auxiliary variable. In some cases, an older measurement of the variable of interest can be used as an auxiliary variable when attempting to produce more current estimates.[14]
Cluster sampling
[edit]Sometimes it is more cost-effective to select respondents in groups ('clusters'). Sampling is often clustered by geography, or by time periods. (Nearly all samples are in some sense 'clustered' in time – although this is rarely taken into account in the analysis.) For instance, if surveying households within a city, we might choose to select 100 city blocks and then interview every household within the selected blocks.
Clustering can reduce travel and administrative costs. In the example above, an interviewer can make a single trip to visit several households in one block, rather than having to drive to a different block for each household.
It also means that one does not need a sampling frame listing all elements in the target population. Instead, clusters can be chosen from a cluster-level frame, with an element-level frame created only for the selected clusters. In the example above, the sample only requires a block-level city map for initial selections, and then a household-level map of the 100 selected blocks, rather than a household-level map of the whole city.
Cluster sampling (also known as clustered sampling) generally increases the variability of sample estimates above that of simple random sampling, depending on how the clusters differ between one another as compared to the within-cluster variation. For this reason, cluster sampling requires a larger sample than SRS to achieve the same level of accuracy – but cost savings from clustering might still make this a cheaper option.
Cluster sampling is commonly implemented as multistage sampling. This is a complex form of cluster sampling in which two or more levels of units are embedded one in the other. The first stage consists of constructing the clusters that will be used to sample from. In the second stage, a sample of primary units is randomly selected from each cluster (rather than using all units contained in all selected clusters). In following stages, in each of those selected clusters, additional samples of units are selected, and so on. All ultimate units (individuals, for instance) selected at the last step of this procedure are then surveyed. This technique, thus, is essentially the process of taking random subsamples of preceding random samples.
Multistage sampling can substantially reduce sampling costs, where the complete population list would need to be constructed (before other sampling methods could be applied). By eliminating the work involved in describing clusters that are not selected, multistage sampling can reduce the large costs associated with traditional cluster sampling.[14] However, each sample may not be a full representative of the whole population.
Quota sampling
[edit]In quota sampling, the population is first segmented into mutually exclusive sub-groups, just as in stratified sampling. Then judgement is used to select the subjects or units from each segment based on a specified proportion. For example, an interviewer may be told to sample 200 females and 300 males between the age of 45 and 60.
It is this second step which makes the technique one of non-probability sampling. In quota sampling the selection of the sample is non-random. For example, interviewers might be tempted to interview those who look most helpful. The problem is that these samples may be biased because not everyone gets a chance of selection. This random element is its greatest weakness and quota versus probability has been a matter of controversy for several years.
Minimax sampling
[edit]In imbalanced datasets, where the sampling ratio does not follow the population statistics, one can resample the dataset in a conservative manner called minimax sampling. The minimax sampling has its origin in Anderson minimax ratio whose value is proved to be 0.5: in a binary classification, the class-sample sizes should be chosen equally. This ratio can be proved to be minimax ratio only under the assumption of LDA classifier with Gaussian distributions. The notion of minimax sampling is recently developed for a general class of classification rules, called class-wise smart classifiers. In this case, the sampling ratio of classes is selected so that the worst case classifier error over all the possible population statistics for class prior probabilities, would be the best.[12]
Accidental sampling
[edit]Accidental sampling (sometimes known as grab, convenience or opportunity sampling) is a type of nonprobability sampling which involves the sample being drawn from that part of the population which is close to hand. That is, a population is selected because it is readily available and convenient. It may be through meeting the person or including a person in the sample when one meets them or chosen by finding them through technological means such as the internet or through phone. The researcher using such a sample cannot scientifically make generalizations about the total population from this sample because it would not be representative enough. For example, if the interviewer were to conduct such a survey at a shopping center early in the morning on a given day, the people that they could interview would be limited to those given there at that given time, which would not represent the views of other members of society in such an area, if the survey were to be conducted at different times of day and several times per week. This type of sampling is most useful for pilot testing. Several important considerations for researchers using convenience samples include:
- Are there controls within the research design or experiment which can serve to lessen the impact of a non-random convenience sample, thereby ensuring the results will be more representative of the population?
- Is there good reason to believe that a particular convenience sample would or should respond or behave differently than a random sample from the same population?
- Is the question being asked by the research one that can adequately be answered using a convenience sample?
In social science research, snowball sampling is a similar technique, where existing study subjects are used to recruit more subjects into the sample. Some variants of snowball sampling, such as respondent driven sampling, allow calculation of selection probabilities and are probability sampling methods under certain conditions.
Voluntary sampling
[edit]The voluntary sampling method is a type of non-probability sampling. Volunteers choose to complete a survey.
Volunteers may be invited through advertisements in social media.[15] The target population for advertisements can be selected by characteristics like location, age, sex, income, occupation, education, or interests using tools provided by the social medium. The advertisement may include a message about the research and link to a survey. After following the link and completing the survey, the volunteer submits the data to be included in the sample population. This method can reach a global population but is limited by the campaign budget. Volunteers outside the invited population may also be included in the sample.
It is difficult to make generalizations from this sample because it may not represent the total population. Often, volunteers have a strong interest in the main topic of the survey.
Line-intercept sampling
[edit]Line-intercept sampling is a method of sampling elements in a region whereby an element is sampled if a chosen line segment, called a "transect", intersects the element.
Panel sampling
[edit]Panel sampling is the method of first selecting a group of participants through a random sampling method and then asking that group for (potentially the same) information several times over a period of time. Therefore, each participant is interviewed at two or more time points; each period of data collection is called a "wave". The method was developed by sociologist Paul Lazarsfeld in 1938 as a means of studying political campaigns.[16] This longitudinal sampling-method allows estimates of changes in the population, for example with regard to chronic illness to job stress to weekly food expenditures. Panel sampling can also be used to inform researchers about within-person health changes due to age or to help explain changes in continuous dependent variables such as spousal interaction.[17] There have been several proposed methods of analyzing panel data, including MANOVA, growth curves, and structural equation modeling with lagged effects.
Snowball sampling
[edit]Snowball sampling involves finding a small group of initial respondents and using them to recruit more respondents. It is particularly useful in cases where the population is hidden or difficult to enumerate.
Theoretical sampling
[edit]This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (July 2015) |
Theoretical sampling[18] occurs when samples are selected on the basis of the results of the data collected so far with a goal of developing a deeper understanding of the area or develop theories. An initial, general sample is first collected with the goal of investigating general trends, where further sampling may consist of extreme or very specific cases might be selected in order to maximize the likelihood a phenomenon will actually be observable.
Active sampling
[edit]In active sampling, the samples which are used for training a machine learning algorithm are actively selected, also compare active learning (machine learning).
Judgmental selection
[edit]Judgement sampling, also known as expert or purposive sampling, is a type of non-random sampling where samples are selected based on the opinion of an expert, who can select participants based on how valuable the information they provide is.
Haphazard sampling
[edit]This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (July 2024) |
Haphazard sampling refers to the idea of using human judgement to simulate randomness. Despite samples being hand-picked, the goal is to ensure that no conscious bias exists within the choice of samples, but often fails due to selection bias.[19] Haphazard sampling is generally opted for due to its convenience, when the tools or capacity to perform other sampling methods may not exist.
The major weakness of such samples is that they often do not represent the characteristics of the entire population, but just a segment of the population. Because of this unbalanced representation, results from haphazard sampling are often biased.[20]
Replacement of selected units
[edit]Sampling schemes may be without replacement ('WOR' – no element can be selected more than once in the same sample) or with replacement ('WR' – an element may appear multiple times in the one sample). For example, if we catch fish, measure them, and immediately return them to the water before continuing with the sample, this is a WR design, because we might end up catching and measuring the same fish more than once. However, if we do not return the fish to the water or tag and release each fish after catching it, this becomes a WOR design.
Sample size determination
[edit]Formulas, tables, and power function charts are well known approaches to determine sample size.
Steps for using sample size tables:
- Postulate the effect size of interest, α, and β.
- Check sample size table[21]
- Select the table corresponding to the selected α
- Locate the row corresponding to the desired power
- Locate the column corresponding to the estimated effect size.
- The intersection of the column and row is the minimum sample size required.
Sampling and data collection
[edit]Good data collection involves:
- Following the defined sampling process
- Keeping the data in time order
- Noting comments and other contextual events
- Recording non-responses
Applications of sampling
[edit]Sampling enables the selection of right data points from within the larger data set to estimate the characteristics of the whole population. For example, there are about 600 million tweets produced every day. It is not necessary to look at all of them to determine the topics that are discussed during the day, nor is it necessary to look at all the tweets to determine the sentiment on each of the topics. A theoretical formulation for sampling Twitter data has been developed.[22]
In manufacturing different types of sensory data such as acoustics, vibration, pressure, current, voltage, and controller data are available at short time intervals. To predict down-time it may not be necessary to look at all the data but a sample may be sufficient.
Errors in sample surveys
[edit]Survey results are typically subject to some error. Total errors can be classified into sampling errors and non-sampling errors. The term "error" here includes systematic biases as well as random errors.
Sampling errors and biases
[edit]Sampling errors and biases are induced by the sample design. They include:
- Selection bias: When the true selection probabilities differ from those assumed in calculating the results.
- Random sampling error: Random variation in the results due to the elements in the sample being selected at random.
Non-sampling error
[edit]Non-sampling errors are other errors which can impact final survey estimates, caused by problems in data collection, processing, or sample design. Such errors may include:
- Over-coverage: inclusion of data from outside of the population
- Under-coverage: sampling frame does not include elements in the population.
- Measurement error: e.g. when respondents misunderstand a question, or find it difficult to answer
- Processing error: mistakes in data coding
- Non-response or Participation bias: failure to obtain complete data from all selected individuals
After sampling, a review is held of the exact process followed in sampling, rather than that intended, in order to study any effects that any divergences might have on subsequent analysis.
A particular problem involves non-response. Two major types of non-response exist:[23][24]
- unit nonresponse (lack of completion of any part of the survey)
- item non-response (submission or participation in survey but failing to complete one or more components/questions of the survey)
In survey sampling, many of the individuals identified as part of the sample may be unwilling to participate, not have the time to participate (opportunity cost),[25] or survey administrators may not have been able to contact them. In this case, there is a risk of differences between respondents and nonrespondents, leading to biased estimates of population parameters. This is often addressed by improving survey design, offering incentives, and conducting follow-up studies which make a repeated attempt to contact the unresponsive and to characterize their similarities and differences with the rest of the frame.[26] The effects can also be mitigated by weighting the data (when population benchmarks are available) or by imputing data based on answers to other questions. Nonresponse is particularly a problem in internet sampling. Reasons for this problem may include improperly designed surveys,[24] over-surveying (or survey fatigue),[17][27][need quotation to verify] and the fact that potential participants may have multiple e-mail addresses, which they do not use anymore or do not check regularly.
Survey weights
[edit]In many situations, the sample fraction may be varied by stratum and data will have to be weighted to correctly represent the population. Thus for example, a simple random sample of individuals in the United Kingdom might not include some in remote Scottish islands who would be inordinately expensive to sample. A cheaper method would be to use a stratified sample with urban and rural strata. The rural sample could be under-represented in the sample, but weighted up appropriately in the analysis to compensate.
More generally, data should usually be weighted if the sample design does not give each individual an equal chance of being selected. For instance, when households have equal selection probabilities but one person is interviewed from within each household, this gives people from large households a smaller chance of being interviewed. This can be accounted for using survey weights. Similarly, households with more than one telephone line have a greater chance of being selected in a random digit dialing sample, and weights can adjust for this.
Weights can also serve other purposes, such as helping to correct for non-response.
Methods of producing random samples
[edit]- Random number table
- Mathematical algorithms for pseudo-random number generators
- Physical randomization devices such as coins, playing cards or sophisticated devices such as ERNIE
See also
[edit]- Data collection
- Design effect
- Estimation theory
- Gy's sampling theory
- German tank problem
- Horvitz–Thompson estimator
- Latin hypercube sampling
- Official statistics
- Ratio estimator
- Replication (statistics)
- Random-sampling mechanism
- Resampling (statistics)
- Pseudo-random number sampling
- Sample size determination
- Sampling (case studies)
- Sampling bias
- Sampling distribution
- Sampling error
- Sortition
- Survey sampling
Notes
[edit]The textbook by Groves et alia provides an overview of survey methodology, including recent literature on questionnaire development (informed by cognitive psychology) :
- Robert Groves, et alia. Survey methodology (2010 2nd ed. [2004]) ISBN 0-471-48348-6.
The other books focus on the statistical theory of survey sampling and require some knowledge of basic statistics, as discussed in the following textbooks:
- David S. Moore and George P. McCabe (February 2005). "Introduction to the practice of statistics" (5th edition). W.H. Freeman & Company. ISBN 0-7167-6282-X.
- Freedman, David; Pisani, Robert; Purves, Roger (2007). Statistics (4th ed.). New York: Norton. ISBN 978-0-393-92972-0.
The elementary book by Scheaffer et alia uses quadratic equations from high-school algebra:
- Scheaffer, Richard L., William Mendenhal and R. Lyman Ott. Elementary survey sampling, Fifth Edition. Belmont: Duxbury Press, 1996.
More mathematical statistics is required for Lohr, for Särndal et alia, and for Cochran:[28]
- Cochran, William G. (1977). Sampling techniques (Third ed.). Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-16240-7.
- Lohr, Sharon L. (1999). Sampling: Design and analysis. Duxbury. ISBN 978-0-534-35361-2.
- Särndal, Carl-Erik; Swensson, Bengt; Wretman, Jan (1992). Model assisted survey sampling. Springer-Verlag. ISBN 978-0-387-40620-6.
The historically important books by Deming and Kish remain valuable for insights for social scientists (particularly about the U.S. census and the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan):
- Deming, W. Edwards (1966). Some Theory of Sampling. Dover Publications. ISBN 978-0-486-64684-8. OCLC 166526.
- Kish, Leslie (1995) Survey Sampling, Wiley, ISBN 0-471-10949-5
References
[edit]- ^ Lance, P.; Hattori, A. (2016). Sampling and Evaluation. Web: MEASURE Evaluation. pp. 6–8, 62–64.
- ^ Salant, Priscilla, I. Dillman, and A. Don. How to conduct your own survey. No. 300.723 S3. 1994.
- ^ Seneta, E. (1985). "A Sketch of the History of Survey Sampling in Russia". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General). 148 (2): 118–125. doi:10.2307/2981944. JSTOR 2981944.
- ^ David S. Moore and George P. McCabe. "Introduction to the Practice of Statistics".
- ^ Freedman, David; Pisani, Robert; Purves, Roger. Statistics.
- ^ "SAMPLE COUNT - Elections Department Singapore" (PDF). Retrieved 3 September 2023.
- ^ Ho, Timothy (1 September 2023). "Presidential Election 2023: How Accurate Will The Sample Count Be Tonight?". DollarsAndSense.sg. Retrieved 3 September 2023.
- ^ a b c d Robert M. Groves; et al. (2009). Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0470465462.
- ^ Lohr, Sharon L. Sampling: Design and analysis.
- ^ Särndal, Carl-Erik; Swensson, Bengt; Wretman, Jan. Model Assisted Survey Sampling.
- ^ Scheaffer, Richard L.; William Mendenhal; R. Lyman Ott. (2006). Elementary survey sampling.
- ^ a b c Shahrokh Esfahani, Mohammad; Dougherty, Edward (2014). "Effect of separate sampling on classification accuracy". Bioinformatics. 30 (2): 242–250. doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btt662. PMID 24257187.
- ^ Scott, A.J.; Wild, C.J. (1986). "Fitting logistic models under case-control or choice-based sampling". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. 48 (2): 170–182. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1986.tb01400.x. JSTOR 2345712.
- ^ a b
- Lohr, Sharon L. Sampling: Design and Analysis.
- Särndal, Carl-Erik; Swensson, Bengt; Wretman, Jan. Model Assisted Survey Sampling.
- ^ Ariyaratne, Buddhika (30 July 2017). "Voluntary Sampling Method combined with Social Media advertising". heal-info.blogspot.com. Health Informatics. Retrieved 18 December 2018.[unreliable source?]
- ^ Lazarsfeld, P., & Fiske, M. (1938). The" panel" as a new tool for measuring opinion. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 2(4), 596–612.
- ^ a b Groves, et alia. Survey Methodology
- ^ "Examples of sampling methods" (PDF).
- ^ "Haphazard sampling definition". AccountingTools. 7 January 2024.
- ^ IRS Statistical Sampling Handbook. USA: Department of the Treasury, Internal Revenue Service. 1988. p. 8.
- ^ Cohen, 1988
- ^ Deepan Palguna; Vikas Joshi; Venkatesan Chakaravarthy; Ravi Kothari; L. V. Subramaniam (2015). Analysis of Sampling Algorithms for Twitter. International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
- ^ Berinsky, A. J. (2008). "Survey non-response". In: W. Donsbach & M. W. Traugott (Eds.), The Sage handbook of public opinion research (pp. 309–321). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
- ^ a b Dillman, D. A., Eltinge, J. L., Groves, R. M., & Little, R. J. A. (2002). "Survey nonresponse in design, data collection, and analysis". In: R. M. Groves, D. A. Dillman, J. L. Eltinge, & R. J. A. Little (Eds.), Survey nonresponse (pp. 3–26). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
- ^ Dillman, D.A., Smyth, J.D., & Christian, L. M. (2009). Internet, mail, and mixed-mode surveys: The tailored design method. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
- ^ Vehovar, V., Batagelj, Z., Manfreda, K.L., & Zaletel, M. (2002). "Nonresponse in web surveys". In: R. M. Groves, D. A. Dillman, J. L. Eltinge, & R. J. A. Little (Eds.), Survey nonresponse (pp. 229–242). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
- ^ Porter; Whitcomb; Weitzer (2004). "Multiple surveys of students and survey fatigue". In Porter, Stephen R (ed.). Overcoming survey research problems. New directions for institutional research. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. pp. 63–74. ISBN 9780787974770. Retrieved 15 July 2019.
- ^ Cochran, William G. (1977-01-01). Sampling Techniques, 3rd Edition (3rd ed.). New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-471-16240-7.
Further reading
[edit]- Singh, G N, Jaiswal, A. K., and Pandey A. K. (2021), Improved Imputation Methods for Missing Data in Two-Occasion Successive Sampling, Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods. DOI:10.1080/03610926.2021.1944211
- Chambers, R L, and Skinner, C J (editors) (2003), Analysis of Survey Data, Wiley, ISBN 0-471-89987-9
- Deming, W. Edwards (1975) On probability as a basis for action, The American Statistician, 29(4), pp. 146–152.
- Gy, P (2012) Sampling of Heterogeneous and Dynamic Material Systems: Theories of Heterogeneity, Sampling and Homogenizing, Elsevier Science, ISBN 978-0444556066
- Korn, E.L., and Graubard, B.I. (1999) Analysis of Health Surveys, Wiley, ISBN 0-471-13773-1
- Lucas, Samuel R. (2012). doi:10.1007/s11135-012-9775-3 "Beyond the Existence Proof: Ontological Conditions, Epistemological Implications, and In-Depth Interview Research."], Quality & Quantity, doi:10.1007/s11135-012-9775-3.
- Stuart, Alan (1962) Basic Ideas of Scientific Sampling, Hafner Publishing Company, New York [ISBN missing]
- Smith, T. M. F. (1984). "Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Sample surveys". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 147 (The 150th Anniversary of the Royal Statistical Society, number 2): 208–221. doi:10.2307/2981677. JSTOR 2981677.
- Smith, T. M. F. (1993). "Populations and Selection: Limitations of Statistics (Presidential address)". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 156 (2): 144–166. doi:10.2307/2982726. JSTOR 2982726. (Portrait of T. M. F. Smith on page 144)
- Smith, T. M. F. (2001). "Centenary: Sample surveys". Biometrika. 88 (1): 167–243. doi:10.1093/biomet/88.1.167.
- Smith, T. M. F. (2001). "Biometrika centenary: Sample surveys". In D. M. Titterington and D. R. Cox (ed.). Biometrika: One Hundred Years. Oxford University Press. pp. 165–194. ISBN 978-0-19-850993-6.
- Whittle, P. (May 1954). "Optimum preventative sampling". Journal of the Operations Research Society of America. 2 (2): 197–203. doi:10.1287/opre.2.2.197. JSTOR 166605.
Standards
[edit]ISO
[edit]- ISO 2859 series
- ISO 3951 series
ASTM
[edit]- ASTM E105 Standard Practice for Probability Sampling Of Materials
- ASTM E122 Standard Practice for Calculating Sample Size to Estimate, With a Specified Tolerable Error, the Average for Characteristic of a Lot or Process
- ASTM E141 Standard Practice for Acceptance of Evidence Based on the Results of Probability Sampling
- ASTM E1402 Standard Terminology Relating to Sampling
- ASTM E1994 Standard Practice for Use of Process Oriented AOQL and LTPD Sampling Plans
- ASTM E2234 Standard Practice for Sampling a Stream of Product by Attributes Indexed by AQL
ANSI, ASQ
[edit]- ANSI/ASQ Z1.4
U.S. federal and military standards
[edit]- MIL-STD-105
- MIL-STD-1916
External links
[edit]
Media related to Sampling (statistics) at Wikimedia Commons
Sampling (statistics)
View on GrokipediaBasic Concepts
Definition and Purpose
In statistics, sampling refers to the process of selecting a subset of individuals or elements, known as a sample, from a larger group called the population, to estimate characteristics of the whole population, such as means, proportions, or variances.[7] This approach allows researchers to draw inferences about the population based on observable data from the sample, leveraging probability theory to quantify uncertainty and ensure representativeness.[8] The primary purpose of sampling is to make efficient inferences about population parameters without the need for a complete enumeration, or census, which is often impractical due to high costs, time constraints, and logistical challenges. By focusing resources on a smaller, carefully chosen group, sampling reduces the effort required while maintaining the ability to generalize findings, particularly for large, dispersed, or inaccessible populations.[7] Key benefits include substantial savings in time and expense compared to censuses, as well as the foundational role it plays in statistical inference, enabling the calculation of estimates like confidence intervals for population traits.[2] A representative example is the estimation of national unemployment rates, where the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Current Population Survey—a probability sample of about 60,000 households—to infer labor force characteristics for the entire U.S. population of approximately 347 million as of 2025, avoiding the impossibility of surveying everyone monthly.[9]Population and Sampling Unit
In statistical sampling, the population is defined as the complete collection of all entities or elements sharing a specified characteristic of interest, which may be finite (e.g., all residents of a city) or infinite (e.g., all possible outcomes of a random process).[8] This set represents the universe from which conclusions are drawn, encompassing every potential unit that meets the criteria for the study.[10] Populations are often categorized into the target population—the ideal group about which inferences are desired—and the surveyed population—the actual accessible group from which the sample is selected, which may differ due to practical constraints like data availability.[11] The sampling unit serves as the fundamental element chosen from the population for inclusion in the sample, typically an individual entity such as a person, household, firm, or geographic cluster.[12] In complex designs like multistage sampling, primary sampling units (PSUs) are selected first from broader clusters (e.g., counties), followed by secondary sampling units (e.g., households within those counties), enabling efficient data collection while maintaining representation.[13] These units form the building blocks of the sample, ensuring that the selection process aligns with the population's structure. Defining population boundaries presents significant challenges, particularly in avoiding undercoverage, where portions of the target population are inadvertently excluded from the selection process.[14] For instance, in election polling, the population of eligible voters must encompass diverse groups, such as those reachable only by mobile phones, to prevent bias from excluding non-landline users.[15] Precise delineation of these boundaries is essential for the validity of subsequent analyses. The ultimate goal of identifying the population and its sampling units is to enable statistical inference, where sample data are used to estimate population parameters, such as the mean , providing reliable generalizations about the entire set.[8] A well-defined sample must mirror key population characteristics to support accurate parameter estimation. The sampling frame, a practical list or mechanism derived from this population, facilitates the actual selection of units.[13]Sampling Frame
In statistics, a sampling frame refers to the accessible list or roster of all units within the target population from which a sample is drawn, serving as the practical representation of the population for selection purposes.[10] This frame typically consists of identifiable elements, such as individuals, households, or organizations, that can be contacted or observed during data collection.[16] Common examples include voter registries for political surveys or address lists derived from census data for household studies, which provide a structured inventory of potential respondents.[17] Constructing a sampling frame often relies on existing administrative records, such as government databases, census files, or institutional lists, to compile a comprehensive enumeration of the population.[18] These sources are selected for their reliability and completeness, but the frame must be regularly updated to account for changes like population mobility, births, deaths, or business closures, thereby minimizing obsolescence and ensuring relevance at the time of sampling.[19] For instance, national agricultural surveys may build frames from farm registries maintained by agricultural departments, periodically refreshed through field verification to reflect current land use.[20] Sampling frames are prone to errors that can compromise survey accuracy, including coverage errors—where certain population units are omitted—and duplication errors, where units appear multiple times.[21] Coverage errors arise when the frame fails to include all target units, such as excluding recently immigrated residents from a municipal registry, leading to underrepresentation.[22] Duplication, meanwhile, occurs if records overlap, like listing a multi-location business under separate addresses, inflating the probability of selection for those units.[23] Noncoverage bias results from such omissions; for example, if a telephone-based survey uses a landline directory that misses approximately 80% of households relying solely on mobile phones as of 2024, estimates of household income may skew higher due to the overrepresentation of older, landline-owning demographics.[24] To address these limitations, particularly for hard-to-reach populations like rural farmers or transient workers, multiple-frame approaches combine several sources—such as administrative lists with community rosters—to enhance overall coverage and reduce gaps.[25] Frame augmentation further improves this by linking auxiliary data, like satellite imagery or social service records, to existing frames, allowing inclusion of underrepresented units without exhaustive recensing.[26] These methods have been effectively applied in epidemiological studies to better capture diverse subpopulations, such as undocumented migrants, by integrating health clinic logs with census extracts.[27]Historical Development
Origins and Early Methods
The roots of sampling practices in statistics extend to ancient civilizations, where selective enumeration was employed for administrative and economic purposes. In ancient Egypt around 2500 BCE, census methods involved counting population members for taxation, military conscription, and resource allocation.[28] Similarly, the Roman Empire conducted censuses to gather data on citizens across expansive territories, aiding in military conscription, taxation, and resource allocation, though logistical challenges in such a vast area often complicated comprehensive counts.[28] The development of probability theory in the 17th and 18th centuries provided the mathematical foundations for modern sampling by addressing uncertainty and expectation. Christiaan Huygens's 1657 treatise De ratiociniis in aleae ludo introduced concepts of expected value in games of chance, deriving equality of chances from fair contracts rather than assuming it axiomatically, which influenced later statistical inference. Jacob Bernoulli built on this in his posthumously published Ars Conjectandi (1713), formulating the law of large numbers, which demonstrated that empirical frequencies converge to theoretical probabilities with sufficient trials, establishing a basis for reliable estimation from samples.[29][30] In the late 18th century, sampling found practical application in population estimation. Pierre-Simon Laplace, in the mid-1780s, advocated for and implemented a survey enumerating the population in approximately 700 French communes, then extrapolated the national total using the ratio of sampled population to registered births, yielding an estimate of about 25 million for France in 1784; this ratio estimator marked an early use of probability-based inference in official statistics. Concurrently, agricultural yield estimation in 18th-century Europe, particularly England, involved sampling via probate inventories and farm surveys to gauge crop outputs, with studies revealing wheat yields rising from around 19 bushels per acre in the early 1700s to higher levels by century's end, highlighting productivity gains from improved practices. Additionally, ancient Indian texts such as the Arthashastra (c. 300 BCE) describe systematic enumerations and surveys for administrative purposes, including taxation and resource management, illustrating early organized data collection in non-Western contexts.[31][32][33][34] Carl Friedrich Gauss advanced error estimation critical to sampling in the early 19th century with his method of least squares, first applied in 1795 for astronomical data and detailed in his 1809 Theoria motus corporum coelestium, which minimizes the sum of squared residuals to find optimal parameter estimates under the assumption of normally distributed errors, laying groundwork for assessing sampling variability.[35]20th-Century Advancements
In the early 20th century, advancements in statistical theory laid foundational groundwork for handling small samples in experimental and survey contexts. William Sealy Gosset, publishing under the pseudonym "Student," introduced the t-distribution in 1908 to address inference challenges when sample sizes are limited, enabling more reliable estimation of population parameters from small datasets without assuming normality for large samples. This innovation was particularly valuable for agricultural and industrial applications where exhaustive data collection was impractical. Building on this, Ronald A. Fisher developed key principles of experimental design in the 1920s, emphasizing randomization, replication, and blocking to control variability and ensure unbiased estimates in field trials, as detailed in his 1925 book Statistical Methods for Research Workers and subsequent works like his 1926 paper on field experiment arrangement. These methods shifted sampling from ad hoc selection toward structured probability-based approaches, influencing modern survey practices. The 1930s marked a pivotal era for probability sampling, spurred by real-world failures and theoretical breakthroughs amid economic challenges. The 1936 Literary Digest poll, which inaccurately predicted a landslide victory for Alf Landon over Franklin D. Roosevelt by sampling from biased telephone and automobile owner lists, exposed the dangers of non-representative quotas and non-probability methods, leading to the magazine's demise and a broader push for scientific polling.[36] In response, Jerzy Neyman formalized stratified sampling theory in his 1934 paper, proving that optimal allocation of sample sizes across strata minimizes variance for fixed budgets, providing a rigorous framework for efficient population representation.[37] Concurrently, the U.S. Census Bureau adopted sampling techniques during the Great Depression to address urgent unemployment data needs; in 1937, it conducted the first Enumerative Check Census using random sampling to validate full enumerations, demonstrating sampling's cost-effectiveness for large-scale surveys.[38] Post-World War II developments solidified probability sampling as a global standard through institutional innovations and methodological refinements. W. Edwards Deming and Morris H. Hansen, working at the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of the Budget, advanced survey sampling by integrating quality control principles with probability methods; Hansen co-developed the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator for probability-proportional-to-size sampling in 1943, while Deming promoted interpenetrating subsamples to assess non-sampling errors, as synthesized in their influential 1953 two-volume treatise Sample Survey Methods and Theory. Internationally, the United Nations established the Sub-Commission on Statistical Sampling in 1947, issuing guidelines in the late 1940s and 1950s that endorsed probability-based methods for national censuses and economic surveys, facilitating standardized adoption across member states to improve data reliability and comparability.[39] These efforts collectively transitioned sampling from empirical guesswork to a theoretically robust discipline, enabling scalable applications in policy and research.Probability Sampling Methods
Simple Random Sampling
Simple random sampling is a fundamental probability sampling method in which each member of the population has an equal and independent chance of being selected for inclusion in the sample. This approach ensures that every possible subset of the specified sample size is equally likely to be chosen, promoting fairness and representativeness. There are two main variants: sampling with replacement, where selected units can be chosen multiple times, and sampling without replacement, which is more typical for finite populations to prevent duplicates and is assumed in most practical applications unless the population is very large relative to the sample.[1] The procedure for implementing simple random sampling begins with constructing a complete and accurate sampling frame—a list of all population units. Units are then assigned unique identifiers, such as sequential numbers, and a random selection mechanism is applied to draw the sample. Common methods include the lottery system, where physical slips representing units are drawn from a container (analogous to drawing names from a hat), or using random number tables or computer-generated random numbers to select identifiers until the desired sample size is reached. This process requires careful execution to maintain randomness and avoid selection bias.[1][2] One key advantage of simple random sampling is that it yields unbiased estimators for population parameters. Specifically, the sample mean serves as an unbiased estimator of the population mean , meaning . The variance of this estimator is given by where is the population variance and is the sample size; this formula applies under the assumption of sampling with replacement or when the population is effectively infinite. This property allows for reliable inference and straightforward calculation of confidence intervals without additional adjustments. Additionally, the method is straightforward to implement and analyze, making it ideal for populations where no prior structure or subgroups are of interest.[40][41] Despite its strengths, simple random sampling has notable disadvantages. It necessitates a comprehensive sampling frame, which can be challenging and resource-intensive to compile, particularly for large, dynamic, or hard-to-access populations. Furthermore, it can be inefficient for heterogeneous populations, as it does not leverage any natural groupings or variations, potentially leading to higher sampling variability and larger required sample sizes to achieve precision compared to more structured methods. The process is also time-consuming and costly, especially when contacting dispersed units or dealing with non-response.[1][2] A classic example of simple random sampling is selecting participants for a small-scale survey by writing all eligible names on slips of paper, placing them in a hat, and randomly drawing the required number without looking. This lottery-style draw ensures each individual has an equal probability of selection, mirroring the method's core principle in a tangible way.[2]Systematic Sampling
Systematic sampling is a probability-based method for selecting a sample from a population by choosing elements at regular intervals from an ordered sampling frame after selecting a random starting point. This approach ensures that every unit in the frame has an equal probability of inclusion, similar to simple random sampling for the initial selection, but introduces a structured pattern for subsequent choices. It is particularly useful when the population is already arranged in a list or sequence, such as a production line or directory.[42] The procedure begins by determining the sampling interval , where is the population size and is the desired sample size. A random starting point is then chosen uniformly from 1 to , and the sample consists of the units at positions , continuing until units are obtained. In cases where the list is finite and the selection reaches the end before completing the sample, circular systematic sampling can be employed by wrapping around to the beginning of the frame. This method simplifies fieldwork as it requires only one random number generation rather than independent ones.[7][43] The variance of the sample mean under systematic sampling can be approximated as where is the population variance and the periodic component captures any additional variability due to ordering or patterns in the frame. This formula adjusts the simple random sampling variance to account for the systematic structure, which may overestimate or underestimate depending on the population's ordering. When the frame is randomly ordered, the variance closely matches that of simple random sampling; however, ordered or periodic frames introduce correlations between selected units that affect precision. One key advantage of systematic sampling is its simplicity in implementation, requiring minimal advance knowledge of the population beyond the ordered frame and no need for complex random number tables beyond the initial start. It often provides more uniform spatial or sequential coverage, making it efficient for large lists like voter rolls or manufacturing sequences.[43] A primary disadvantage arises from potential bias when the sampling frame contains periodic patterns that coincide with the interval , leading to over- or under-representation of certain characteristics; for example, if defects occur every 10th item on a line and , the sample might consistently include or exclude them. This periodicity risk can inflate variance or cause systematic errors not present in purely random methods.[44] An illustrative example is quality control in manufacturing, where inspectors might use systematic sampling to check every 5th product on an assembly line for defects, starting from a randomly chosen position within the first 5 items; this balances efficiency with representativeness assuming no regular defect patterns.[42]Stratified Sampling
Stratified sampling involves dividing the population into mutually exclusive and exhaustive subgroups, known as strata, based on one or more key variables such as age, income, or geographic location, followed by independent random sampling from each stratum.[37] This approach ensures that the sample reflects the population's diversity by drawing samples proportional to the stratum sizes or optimized for precision. In proportional allocation, the sample size for each stratum is determined by , where is the population size of stratum , is the total population size, and is the overall sample size. For optimal allocation, known as Neyman allocation, the sample size is proportional to , where is the standard deviation within stratum , minimizing the variance of the stratified estimator for a fixed total sample size.[37] This allocation prioritizes strata with greater variability to achieve higher efficiency.[45] The variance of the stratified mean estimator is given by where is the weight of stratum , and is the number of strata; this is typically lower than the variance from simple random sampling due to reduced within-stratum variability.[46] Stratified sampling offers advantages including improved precision of estimates compared to simple random sampling and guaranteed representation of all strata, which is particularly useful for subpopulations of interest.[47] It also allows for separate estimates within each stratum, enhancing analysis of subgroup differences. However, it requires prior knowledge of the population to define strata accurately, and errors in stratum classification can introduce bias; additionally, it may increase costs due to the need for separate sampling frames per stratum.[47] An example is the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), which stratifies the U.S. population by geographic regions, urban/rural status, and other factors to ensure nationally representative health data.[48]Cluster Sampling
Cluster sampling is a probability sampling method in which the population is partitioned into mutually exclusive and exhaustive groups called clusters, often based on geographic, administrative, or natural boundaries such as neighborhoods, schools, or hospitals. A random sample of these clusters is then selected, and either all elements within the chosen clusters are surveyed (one-stage sampling) or a subsample of elements is drawn from each selected cluster (multistage sampling). This approach is particularly suited to large, dispersed populations where constructing a complete list of individual elements is infeasible or prohibitively expensive.[1] In single-stage cluster sampling, the entire content of each selected cluster is included in the sample, providing a complete census of those units. Multistage cluster sampling, by contrast, involves sequential random selections: first choosing clusters as primary sampling units, then subsampling elements within them as secondary units, which allows for more flexibility in controlling sample size and costs. For instance, in a two-stage design, clusters like city blocks might be randomly selected in the first stage, followed by random sampling of households within those blocks in the second stage.[1] The variance of cluster sample estimators tends to be larger than that of simple random sampling of the same size because elements within clusters are often more similar to each other than to those in other clusters, a phenomenon captured by the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC), denoted , which quantifies this within-cluster homogeneity on a scale from 0 (no correlation) to 1 (perfect correlation). This increased variance is summarized by the design effect (DEFF), introduced by Kish, which represents the ratio of the cluster sample variance to the simple random sample variance and is approximated by the formula where is the average number of elements per cluster; a DEFF greater than 1 indicates reduced effective sample size, necessitating adjustments in sample size planning to maintain precision.[49][50] Cluster sampling offers significant advantages in terms of cost and logistics, as it minimizes the need for a full population list and reduces fieldwork expenses like travel, making it efficient for geographically widespread populations. It also simplifies administration by focusing efforts on a limited number of locations rather than scattering them across the entire study area.[1][49] However, it has notable disadvantages, including potentially higher sampling error due to intracluster homogeneity, which can bias estimates if clusters are not representative of the broader population, and the requirement for more complex analytical adjustments to account for the ICC. Additionally, the method may demand larger overall sample sizes to compensate for the inflated variance, offsetting some cost savings.[1][49] An illustrative example is an educational assessment survey targeting students across a state: the population of schools serves as clusters, a random sample of schools is selected, and then a random subsample of students within those schools is surveyed to estimate statewide achievement levels.[51]Probability-Proportional-to-Size Sampling
Probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling is a probability sampling technique in which the inclusion probability of each population unit is made proportional to a measure of its size, such as the number of elements it contains or an auxiliary variable correlated with the study variable. This approach is particularly useful in surveys involving clusters or units of varying sizes, where equal probability selection would lead to inefficient representation of larger units. The method was originally developed by Hansen and Hurwitz in 1943 for sampling with replacement, allowing for the selection of units multiple times if drawn again. In PPS sampling, the first-order inclusion probability for unit in a population of units is given by , where is the sample size and is the size measure for unit . For sampling with replacement, units are selected independently in each draw with probability , which simplifies variance calculations but may result in duplicates. Common methods for without-replacement PPS include systematic PPS sampling, where units are ordered by size and selected at regular intervals using cumulative totals, and Brewer's method, which is specifically designed for selecting two units without replacement by adjusting probabilities to approximate the target inclusion rates. These methods ensure no duplicates while maintaining approximate proportionality.[52][53] Estimation in PPS sampling typically employs the Horvitz-Thompson estimator for the population total , defined as , where is the sample and is the value for unit . This estimator is unbiased under the design, as each unit's contribution is inversely weighted by its inclusion probability. For sampling with replacement, the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator (summing over draws ) provides an alternative that is also unbiased. Variance estimation for the Horvitz-Thompson estimator often uses the Sen-Yates-Grundy formula, , where is the second-order inclusion probability; this requires estimating joint inclusion probabilities, which can be approximated in systematic PPS designs. One key advantage of PPS sampling is its efficiency in populations with skewed size distributions, as it allocates higher selection chances to larger units likely to contribute more to totals, often resulting in self-weighting samples when the size measure correlates strongly with the study variable and reducing variance compared to equal-probability methods. It is especially effective in cluster sampling contexts, where clusters vary in size, enhancing precision for estimating aggregate quantities without needing post-stratification. However, disadvantages include the need for accurate and up-to-date size measures for all units, which can be costly or infeasible to obtain, and the computational complexity of calculating exact inclusion probabilities for without-replacement designs, potentially leading to approximations that introduce bias in variance estimates.[54][55] A practical example of PPS sampling occurs in auditing, where firms are selected for review proportional to their employee count or total assets as a size measure; larger firms, presumed to have greater impact on aggregate financial totals, receive higher selection probabilities, allowing auditors to focus resources efficiently while estimating overall compliance or error rates.[56]Non-Probability Sampling Methods
Convenience Sampling
Convenience sampling is a non-probability sampling method in which research participants or units are selected based solely on their ease of access and availability to the researcher, without employing any random selection process. This approach prioritizes practicality over representativeness, often drawing from readily accessible populations such as passersby in public spaces or volunteers responding to an open call.[57][58] The procedure for convenience sampling relies on the researcher's subjective judgment to identify and approach potential participants who are conveniently located, rather than using a formalized random mechanism or sampling frame. For instance, a study might involve approaching individuals at a shopping mall or university campus because they are immediately available, allowing data collection to proceed without logistical barriers. This method contrasts with probability-based techniques like simple random sampling, which ensure every population member has a known chance of selection.[59][60] One key advantage of convenience sampling is its low cost and rapid implementation, as it minimizes the time and resources needed for recruitment, making it ideal for preliminary or exploratory studies where broad insights are sought quickly. It is particularly valuable in scenarios with tight budgets or deadlines, such as initial market testing or hypothesis generation in social sciences.[61][62] Despite these benefits, convenience sampling suffers from substantial disadvantages, primarily high selection bias, as the easily accessible group often differs systematically from the broader population in demographics, behaviors, or opinions. This lack of randomness precludes probability-based statistical inference and severely limits the generalizability of findings, potentially leading to misleading conclusions if applied beyond the sampled context.[57][63] A common example is conducting interviews with shoppers at a retail store to assess preferences for a new consumer product; participants are chosen simply because they are present and willing, providing immediate feedback but risking overrepresentation of local or leisure-oriented individuals.[61][64] Convenience sampling also holds a prominent, though frequently underemphasized, role in qualitative research, where the emphasis on rich, in-depth data from accessible sources aligns with exploratory goals rather than population inference.[65]Quota Sampling
Quota sampling is a non-probability sampling method in which the population is divided into mutually exclusive subgroups or strata based on relevant characteristics, such as age, gender, or income, and a fixed number or proportion of participants is selected from each subgroup to meet predefined quotas that reflect the population's composition.[66] This approach ensures that the sample includes a diverse representation of key demographic or categorical variables without requiring a complete sampling frame or random selection.[1] Unlike stratified sampling, which employs random selection within each stratum to enable probabilistic inference, quota sampling relies on non-random convenience or purposive selection within quotas.[67] The procedure begins with identifying important population subgroups and establishing quotas proportional to their known distribution in the target population—for instance, selecting 50% males and 50% females if that matches demographic data.[66] Researchers then recruit participants non-randomly from accessible sources, such as public locations or online panels, until each quota is fulfilled, often stopping once the required numbers are reached without further randomization.[68] This method is commonly applied in exploratory research or when time and resources are limited, as it allows for rapid data collection while controlling for specific variables.[1] Advantages of quota sampling include its ability to guarantee inclusion of underrepresented or diverse subgroups, thereby enhancing the sample's relevance to the population of interest, and its efficiency in terms of cost and speed compared to probability-based alternatives.[67] It is particularly useful in market research, opinion polling, or preliminary studies where a full population list is unavailable or impractical to obtain.[66] For example, a consumer goods company might set quotas for 25% of respondents aged 18-24, 35% aged 25-44, and 40% aged 45+ across low, medium, and high income levels to evaluate product preferences, ensuring balanced demographic coverage without exhaustive random sampling.[68] However, quota sampling has notable disadvantages, including the risk of selection bias within quotas, as interviewers or recruiters may inadvertently favor easily accessible individuals who share similar traits, leading to overrepresentation of certain attitudes or behaviors.[67] Interviewer discretion in choosing participants can introduce subjectivity, and the method provides no mechanism to control for variables outside the quotas.[1] A key limitation is its inability to reliably compute sampling errors or confidence intervals, as the non-random selection precludes probabilistic generalizations to the broader population, potentially undermining the validity of statistical inferences.[66]Judgmental Sampling
Judgmental sampling, also known as purposive sampling, is a non-probability sampling technique in which researchers select sample units based on their subjective judgment of which individuals, cases, or elements are most relevant or informative for the research objectives.[1] This method relies on the expertise and prior knowledge of the researcher to deliberately choose participants who possess specific characteristics believed to provide valuable insights into the phenomenon under study.[69] Unlike probability-based approaches, it does not aim for random selection, prioritizing depth and relevance over representativeness of the broader population.[70] The procedure for judgmental sampling typically involves defining clear criteria upfront, such as expertise, typicality, or possession of rare traits, and then using expert judgment—often from the researcher or a panel—to identify and include suitable units.[69] For instance, in a study on economic trends, researchers might select industry leaders whose experiences are deemed critical for forecasting market shifts, ensuring the sample captures key informants with deep domain knowledge.[71] This process can be iterative, where initial selections inform subsequent choices, but it remains guided by subjective assessments rather than probabilistic rules.[70] One primary advantage of judgmental sampling is its efficiency in targeting hard-to-reach or rare populations, allowing researchers to focus resources on cases that yield the most pertinent data without the need for exhaustive lists or random draws.[1] It is particularly useful in exploratory or qualitative research where the goal is to gain in-depth understanding from knowledgeable sources, such as expert panels in policy analysis, and it can be less time-consuming and cost-effective compared to probability methods.[70] However, its disadvantages are significant, as the inherent subjectivity introduces potential bias, making it difficult to quantify or mitigate errors in selection.[69] Consequently, results from judgmental samples limit generalizability to the population, and statistical inference about precision or error is not feasible, rendering it unsuitable for studies requiring unbiased estimates.[1] Variants of judgmental sampling include extreme case sampling, which focuses on unusual or deviant instances to highlight exceptional conditions or outliers; typical case sampling, which selects average or representative examples to illustrate common patterns; and critical incident sampling, which targets pivotal events or experiences that reveal underlying processes.[72] These adaptations allow flexibility in application while maintaining the core reliance on researcher judgment to define what constitutes an informative case.[70]Snowball Sampling
Snowball sampling is a non-probability sampling technique used in social science research to identify and recruit participants from hard-to-reach or hidden populations by leveraging social networks. It begins with a small number of initial participants, known as "seeds," who are often identified through judgmental selection, and expands through referrals where each participant nominates or recruits additional individuals from their personal connections. This chain-referral process mimics the rolling accumulation of a snowball, allowing researchers to access groups that lack a complete sampling frame, such as stigmatized or marginalized communities. The method was first formalized by Leo Goodman in 1961 as a way to sample social environments using sociometric questions.[73][74] The procedure typically involves multiple waves of recruitment, where seeds are selected based on their relevance to the target population and provided with incentives, such as monetary rewards, to encourage referrals of eligible contacts. Participants are asked to provide contact information for a limited number of peers—often 3 to 5—who meet study criteria, and this process continues for a fixed number of waves or until the sample reaches a desired size. Variations include linear snowball sampling, where recruitment forms a single chain, or exponential non-discriminative sampling, which allows multiple referrals without restrictions on network ties. Incentives are crucial to motivate participation and ensure diverse recruitment, though the process relies on participants' willingness to disclose connections.[75][76] One key advantage of snowball sampling is its ability to access hidden populations, such as intravenous drug users or sex workers, where traditional sampling frames are unavailable or unreliable, enabling studies that would otherwise be infeasible. It also builds trust within networks, as referrals from known contacts reduce suspicion and increase response rates in sensitive topics. However, the method introduces significant biases, as it favors highly connected individuals with larger social networks, potentially overrepresenting central figures and underrepresenting isolates, while lacking probability-based weights to generalize findings to the broader population. This non-random nature makes it challenging to estimate sampling errors or ensure representativeness.[77][78] A practical example is research on undocumented immigrants, where initial seeds from community organizations refer family members or acquaintances, allowing investigators to study migration experiences and health disparities in a population wary of authorities. This approach has been used to recruit participants in urban settings, revealing patterns of social support and barriers to services that probability methods could not capture.[76][79] A notable variant is respondent-driven sampling (RDS), developed by Douglas Heckathorn in 1997, which modifies traditional snowball sampling to address bias through structured incentives and statistical estimators. In RDS, participants receive primary incentives for completing the survey and secondary incentives for successful referrals, typically limited to 2-3 per person to control recruitment depth. Data on network sizes and ties are collected via coupons or forms, enabling estimators like the Heckathorn estimator to weight samples inversely proportional to reported degrees, approximating population proportions for traits such as HIV prevalence in hidden groups. This allows for more robust inferences compared to basic snowball methods, though assumptions of random recruitment within networks must hold.[80][81]Sampling Design Considerations
With vs. Without Replacement
In sampling with replacement, a unit selected from the population is returned to the population before the next draw, allowing the same unit to be chosen multiple times across draws. This process maintains a constant probability of selection for each unit on every draw, equal to , where is the population size.[82] In contrast, sampling without replacement involves selecting units such that once a unit is chosen, it is removed from the population and cannot be selected again, ensuring all sampled units are distinct. The probability of selecting any remaining unit changes with each draw, decreasing as the pool of available units shrinks. This scenario follows the hypergeometric distribution, which models the number of successes in a fixed-size sample drawn without replacement from a finite population containing two types of items.[82]/12:_Finite_Sampling_Models/12.02:_The_Hypergeometric_Distribution) The choice between these methods significantly affects the variance of estimators, such as the sample mean. For sampling without replacement, the variance of the sample mean is lower than for sampling with replacement due to the reduced variability from excluding duplicates: where is the sample size and is the population variance (approximating for large ). This incorporates the finite population correction (fpc) factor , which adjusts standard errors downward when the sample depletes a substantial portion of the population, reflecting the decreased uncertainty in finite settings.[83][84][85] Sampling with replacement is typically used in contexts requiring independent draws or approximations to infinite populations, such as bootstrapping methods for estimating sampling distributions by resampling from an observed dataset. In contrast, sampling without replacement is standard for most survey applications to avoid redundant observations and ensure representation of unique population elements. For instance, Monte Carlo simulations often employ sampling with replacement to generate independent replicates for approximating complex integrals or probabilities under assumed models.[86]Sample Size Determination
Sample size determination in statistics involves calculating the minimum number of observations required to achieve reliable estimates of population parameters, balancing precision, confidence, and resource constraints. Key factors include the desired margin of error (E), which specifies the acceptable range around the estimate; the confidence level, typically 95% corresponding to a z-score of 1.96 from the standard normal distribution; and population variability, which measures the spread of data and is estimated as σ² for means or p(1-p) for proportions, where p is the expected proportion.[87][88] These elements ensure the sample provides sufficient statistical power while minimizing costs.[89] For estimating a population mean, the sample size n is given by the formula: where z is the z-score for the confidence level, σ is the population standard deviation, and E is the margin of error. This formula assumes an infinite population and normal distribution; σ is often estimated from prior studies or pilot data if unknown.[90][87] For proportions, the formula is: which maximizes at p = 0.5 for maximum variability in the absence of prior information, yielding the conservative "worst-case" estimate.[88][91] When the population size N is finite, a correction factor adjusts the initial sample size n₀ to account for reduced variability: This finite population correction (fpc) is particularly relevant for smaller populations, preventing overestimation of n. The approach originates from Cochran's seminal work on sampling techniques.[91][92] In hypothesis testing scenarios, sample size determination incorporates power analysis to ensure adequate ability to detect true effects. Power (1 - β, often set at 80%) depends on the effect size (standardized difference between groups or from null), significance level α (e.g., 0.05), and the test type; larger effect sizes or higher power require larger n. Formulas vary by test—for instance, for a two-sample t-test, n relates to the non-central t-distribution—but software facilitates computation.[93][94] Practical tools simplify these calculations: Slovin's formula, n = N / (1 + N E²), serves as an approximation for proportions assuming p = 0.5 and large N, though it lacks the rigor of Cochran's method and is best for quick estimates.[95] More robust options include software like G*Power, which supports power analysis across 200+ statistical tests by inputting effect size, α, and power.[96][97] A common example is determining sample size for a survey estimating a proportion with 95% confidence and 5% margin of error, assuming p = 0.5 for an infinite population: n ≈ (1.96² × 0.5 × 0.5) / 0.05² = 385. This provides a baseline for many opinion polls.[88][91]Survey Weights
Survey weights are adjustment factors applied to survey data to correct for imbalances arising from unequal selection probabilities, nonresponse, and discrepancies with known population characteristics, thereby producing unbiased estimates that better represent the target population. The primary purpose of these weights is to ensure that each sampled unit contributes proportionally to its likelihood of inclusion, with the base weight for unit defined as the inverse of its inclusion probability, , known as the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. This approach, originally proposed by Horvitz and Thompson, allows for unbiased estimation of population totals and means even under complex sampling designs. Further adjustments, such as post-stratification, refine these base weights to align sample distributions with external benchmarks like census data.[98][99] Several types of survey weights address specific sources of distortion. Design weights, derived directly from the sampling scheme, account for unequal selection probabilities; for instance, in probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling, units from larger clusters receive lower weights to reflect their higher inclusion chances. Nonresponse weights adjust for differential response rates by taking the inverse of the estimated propensity to respond, often modeled using logistic regression on auxiliary variables like demographics to predict response probability. Calibration weights, including post-stratification and benchmarking, further modify initial weights to match known population totals across multiple domains, reducing bias from undercoverage or nonresponse. These weights are typically constructed sequentially, multiplying components to form final analysis weights.[99][100][101] Common methods for implementing survey weights include raking, also known as iterative proportional fitting, which iteratively adjusts weights to simultaneously match multiple marginal distributions (e.g., age, gender, and education) from population controls, converging to a solution that minimizes discrepancies. This process can lead to effective sample size reduction, as highly variable weights diminish the precision equivalent to a smaller simple random sample. Additionally, weighting introduces variance inflation, quantified by the design effect (deff), which measures the increase in variance of an estimator under the weighted complex design relative to a simple random sample of the same size; deff is often approximated as , where is the coefficient of variation of the weights, highlighting the trade-off between bias correction and efficiency loss.[100][102][103] A practical example occurs in election polling, where minority groups are often oversampled to achieve sufficient subgroup precision for reliable subgroup estimates, but their weights are then reduced to align with actual population proportions, preventing overrepresentation in national aggregates. For instance, surveys targeting Hispanic or Black voters may intentionally select twice the population share, applying downweighting factors of 0.5 to restore balance after data collection. This technique ensures accurate overall predictions while maintaining analytical depth for underrepresented populations.[104][100]Implementation and Analysis
Data Collection Techniques
Data collection techniques in sampling involve selecting appropriate modes to gather information from the sampled units, ensuring the data accurately reflects the target population while minimizing errors introduced during the process. Common modes include face-to-face interviews, telephone surveys, mail questionnaires, and online surveys, each suited to different scenarios based on population accessibility and resource constraints.[105][106] Face-to-face interviews allow for complex questioning and clarification but require significant time and travel, making them ideal for in-depth studies in diverse or low-literacy populations. Telephone surveys offer broader geographic reach and faster data collection compared to in-person methods, though they are limited by declining landline usage and inability to observe nonverbal cues. Mail surveys provide cost-effective distribution to large samples with flexible response timing, yet they suffer from lower response rates and potential misinterpretation of questions without immediate assistance. Online surveys leverage digital access for rapid, low-cost administration and multimedia integration, but they exclude those without internet connectivity, potentially biasing results toward younger or urban demographics.[106][105] Mixed-mode approaches combine these methods, such as starting with mail or web followed by telephone follow-up, to enhance coverage and response rates by accommodating respondent preferences and overcoming mode-specific limitations. For instance, sequential mixed-mode designs improve representation in populations with varying technology access, reducing undercoverage from single-mode reliance on the sample frame. Research indicates that such strategies can increase overall participation while controlling costs, though they require careful design to mitigate inconsistencies across modes.[107][108] Key considerations in data collection include mode effects, which refer to systematic differences in response quality arising from the administration method, such as varying item nonresponse or measurement error. For example, self-administered modes like mail or online may yield more honest answers to sensitive topics due to privacy, but they can increase comprehension errors without interviewer guidance. Interviewer-administered modes, conversely, benefit from rapport-building but risk introducing bias through probing or leading questions. To address this, comprehensive training for interviewers is essential, encompassing stages from basic protocol familiarization to on-the-job supervision and survey-specific practice to ensure consistency and neutrality.[109][110][111] Maximizing response rates is critical to maintaining sample representativeness, achieved through techniques like multiple callbacks to contact hard-to-reach respondents and offering incentives such as monetary rewards or lotteries to encourage participation. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) provides standardized formulas for calculating response rates, such as the Response Rate 3 (RR3), which divides completed interviews by the sum of interviews, partial interviews, refusals, and noncontacts, adjusted for unknowns to assess survey quality transparently. These practices help benchmark performance and identify areas for improvement in future collections.[105][112] Challenges in data collection often stem from mode-specific biases, notably social desirability bias in interviewer-led modes, where respondents alter answers to align with perceived social norms, leading to underreporting of undesirable behaviors like substance use. This bias is more pronounced in face-to-face or telephone settings due to the presence of an interviewer, potentially inflating positive self-presentation and distorting prevalence estimates. Strategies to mitigate it include anonymous self-administration options in mixed-mode designs.[113][114] An illustrative example is the transition from telephone to web-based modes in longitudinal panels, as seen in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), where shifting to predominantly web administration reduced costs and fieldwork burden while maintaining high retention through sequential reminders and incentives. However, this change initially posed challenges in data quality for complex cognitive tasks, necessitating hybrid protocols to preserve measurement equivalence across waves.[115]Generating Random Samples
Generating random samples requires mechanisms to introduce unpredictability into the selection process, ensuring each population unit has the intended probability of inclusion. In statistical practice, this involves producing sequences of numbers that mimic true randomness, which can then be mapped to sample indices or orders. These sequences underpin probability sampling methods by facilitating unbiased selections, such as drawing units without favoritism toward any subset.[116] Historically, random samples were generated manually using physical devices like dice or coins for small-scale selections, or through precomputed random number tables published in statistical texts for larger applications. The shift to computational methods began in the mid-20th century with early computers; by the 1950s, machines like the UNIVAC I enabled automated random number generation for simulations and sampling in fields such as operations research and nuclear physics calculations. This transition improved scalability and reduced human error, allowing for rapid production of extensive random sequences essential for large population surveys.[117][118] Modern random number generation primarily relies on pseudorandom number generators (PRNGs), which use deterministic algorithms to produce sequences that pass statistical tests for randomness despite being reproducible from an initial seed. A foundational PRNG is the linear congruential generator (LCG), introduced by Derrick Henry Lehmer in 1949 and formalized as , where is the current state, is the multiplier, the increment, and the modulus, with parameters selected to maximize period and uniformity. LCGs are computationally efficient and form the basis for many sampling routines due to their simplicity and adequate performance for non-cryptographic statistical uses. For higher-quality pseudorandomness, advanced variants like the Mersenne Twister, with a period exceeding , are employed to avoid short cycles that could bias samples.[119][120] In contrast, true random number generators (TRNGs) derive entropy directly from physical phenomena, offering genuine unpredictability without algorithmic determinism. Hardware-based TRNGs, such as those using ring oscillators or thermal noise in semiconductors, sample unpredictable signals to produce bits; for example, Renesas' true RNG hardware employs jitter in ring oscillators oscillating at around 19 MHz, sampled at 48 kbit/s to yield high-entropy outputs suitable for seeding PRNGs in sampling. These are particularly valuable when pseudorandom sequences risk correlation in long runs, though they generate bits more slowly than PRNGs. Post-2020 advances in quantum random number generators (QRNGs) have addressed high-entropy demands by exploiting quantum effects like photon detection in entangled states; for instance, silicon-based QRNGs achieve error rates below 0.3% at gigabit-per-second rates, enabling secure, provably random sampling for applications blending statistics with cryptography.[121][122] Key algorithms transform these random numbers into samples. For simple random sampling without replacement, the Fisher-Yates shuffle (also known as the Knuth shuffle) permutes a list of population indices by iteratively swapping each position (from the end to the start) with a randomly chosen position from 0 to , ensuring uniform selection probabilities in linear time. This method, originally proposed by Ronald Fisher and Frank Yates in 1938 and refined by Donald Knuth, avoids biases present in naive shuffling approaches. Software libraries implement these efficiently: Python'srandom module uses a Mersenne Twister PRNG for functions like random.shuffle() and random.sample(), allowing direct generation of random subsets from iterables. Similarly, R's base sample() function employs a variant of LCG or better generators for vector sampling, with options for replacement.[123]
Quality assurance involves statistical tests to validate generator properties like uniformity and independence. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test assesses uniformity by dividing the [0,1) interval into equal bins, computing the statistic where are observed frequencies and expected under uniformity for numbers, and comparing to a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom. A p-value above a threshold (e.g., 0.05) indicates no significant deviation. Seeds, typically integers or system entropy, initialize PRNGs for reproducibility in research, allowing exact replication of samples while permitting variation via reseeding. Poor generators, like the flawed RANDU LCG from the 1960s, fail such tests due to linear dependencies, underscoring the need for vetted implementations.[124][125]
Practical examples illustrate accessibility. In Microsoft Excel, the RAND() function generates a uniform random number in [0,1) each time the worksheet recalculates, enabling simple random starts for systematic sampling by assigning =RAND() to a column beside data, sorting by it, and selecting the top rows. This approach, while not ideal for very large datasets due to recalculation overhead, suffices for moderate-sized surveys and integrates randomness without programming. Such tools democratize random sampling, bridging manual traditions with computational power.[126]