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Climate of India
Climate of India
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A scene in Uttarakhand's Valley of Flowers National Park. In contrast to the rain shadow region of Tirunelveli, the park receives ample orographic precipitation due to its location in a mountainous windward-facing region wedged between the Zanskars and the Greater Himalayas.
Daytime view of a chain of snow-capped mountains. They advance diagonally thumb from the far-middle distance at left to the nudge distance at right. In the foreground are high montaine meadows and brushband.
The formation of the Himalayas (pictured) during the Early Eocene some 52 mya was a key factor in determining India's modern-day climate; global climate and ocean chemistry may have been affected.[1]

The climate of India includes a wide range of weather conditions, influenced by its vast geographic scale and varied topography. Based on the Köppen system, India encompasses a diverse array of climatic subtypes. These range from arid and semi-arid regions in the west to highland, sub-arctic, tundra, and ice cap climates in the northern Himalayan regions, varying with elevation.

The Indo-Gangetic Plains in the north experience a humid subtropical climate which become more temperate at higher altitudes, like the Sivalik Hills, or continental in some areas like Gulmarg. In contrast, much of the south and the east exhibit tropical climate conditions, which support lush rainforests in parts of these territories. Many regions have starkly different microclimates, making it one of the most climatically diverse countries in the world. The country's meteorological department follows four seasons with some local adjustments: winter (December to February), summer (March to May), monsoon or south-west monsoon (June to September) and post-monsoon or north-east monsoon (October to November). Some parts of the country with subtropical, temperate or continental climates also experience spring and autumn.

India's geography and geology are climatically pivotal: the Thar Desert in the northwest and the Himalayas in the north work in tandem to create a culturally and economically important monsoonal regime. As Earth's highest and most massive mountain range, the Himalayas bar the influx of frigid katabatic winds from the icy Tibetan Plateau and northerly Central Asia. Most of North India is thus kept warm or is only mildly chilly or cold during winter; the same thermal dam keeps most regions in India hot in summer. The climate in South India is generally warmer, and more humid due to its coastlines. However some hill stations in South India such as Ooty are well known for their cold climate.

Though the Tropic of Cancer—the boundary that is between the tropics and subtropics—passes through the middle of India, the bulk of the country can be regarded as climatically tropical. As in much of the tropics, monsoonal and other weather patterns in India can be strongly variable: epochal droughts, heat waves, floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters are sporadic, but have displaced or ended millions of human lives. Such climatic events are likely to change in frequency and severity as a consequence of human-induced climate change. Ongoing and future vegetative changes, sea level rise and inundation of India's low-lying coastal areas are also attributed to global warming.[2]

Paleoclimate

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Many areas remain flooded during the heavy rains brought by monsoon in West Bengal

History

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During the Triassic period of 251–199.6 Ma, the Indian subcontinent was the part of a vast supercontinent known as Pangaea. Despite its position within a high-latitude belt at 55–75° S—latitudes now occupied by parts of the Antarctic Peninsula, as opposed to India's current position between 8 and 37° N—India likely experienced a humid temperate climate with warm and frost-free weather, though with well-defined seasons.[3] India later merged into the southern supercontinent Gondwana, a process beginning some 550–500 Ma. During the Late Paleozoic, Gondwana extended from a point at or near the South Pole to near the equator, where the Indian craton (stable continental crust) was positioned, resulting in a mild climate favorable to hosting high-biomass ecosystems. This is underscored by India's vast coal reserves—much of it from the late Paleozoic sedimentary sequence—the fourth-largest reserves in the world.[4] During the Mesozoic, the world, including India, was considerably warmer than today. With the coming of the Carboniferous, global cooling stoked extensive glaciation, which spread northwards from South Africa towards India; this cool period lasted well into the Permian.[5]

Tectonic movement by the Indian Plate caused it to pass over a geologic hotspot—the Réunion hotspot—now occupied by the volcanic island of Réunion. This resulted in a massive flood basalt event that laid down the Deccan Traps some 60–68 Ma,[6][7] at the end of the Cretaceous period. This may have contributed to the global Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, which caused India to experience significantly reduced insolation. Elevated atmospheric levels of sulphur gases formed aerosols such as sulphur dioxide and sulphuric acid, similar to those found in the atmosphere of Venus; these precipitated as acid rain. Elevated carbon dioxide emissions also contributed to the greenhouse effect, causing warmer weather that lasted long after the atmospheric shroud of dust and aerosols had cleared. Further climatic changes 20 million years ago, long after India had crashed into the Laurasian landmass, were severe enough to cause the extinction of many endemic Indian forms.[8] The formation of the Himalayas resulted in blockage of frigid Central Asian air, preventing it from reaching India; this made its climate significantly warmer and more tropical in character than it would otherwise have been.[9]

More recently, in the Holocene epoch (4,800–6,300 years ago), parts of what is now the Thar Desert were wet enough to support perennial lakes; researchers have proposed that this was due to much higher winter precipitation, which coincided with stronger monsoons.[10] Kashmir's erstwhile subtropical climate dramatically cooled 2.6–3.7 Ma and experienced prolonged cold spells starting 600,000 years ago.[11]

Regions

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"India Average Temperature Map": A map of India overlaid with five zones. A violet zone, with ambient temperatures averaging less than 20.0 degrees Celsius, envelops Himalayan and trans-Himalayan India, as well as the Khasi Hills on the Meghalaya Plateau. A transitionary blue zone of between 20.0 and 22.5 degrees, lies just south of the violet areas; another blue area lies in the extreme southwest of the country, focused on the high Western Ghats. Two contiguous green areas (averaging 22.5 to 25.0 degrees) envelop the blue regions, with the northern one snaking into the Vindhya Range of central India. The remaining yellow and red areas, designating average temperatures above 25.0 degrees Celsius, constitute by far the greater part of the country.
Average annual temperatures across India:
  < 20.0 °C
(< 68.0 °F)
  20.0–22.5 °C
(68.0–72.5 °F)
  22.5–25.0 °C
(72.5–77.0 °F)
  25.0–27.5 °C
(77.0–81.5 °F)
  > 27.5 °C
(> 81.5 °F)
India's Köppen climate classification map[12] is based on temperature, precipitation and their seasonality.

India has many different climates, from tropical in the south to temperate and alpine in the Himalayan north, where higher areas get snowfall in winter. The nation's climate is strongly influenced by the Himalayas and the Thar Desert.[13] The Himalayas, along with the Hindu Kush mountains in Pakistan, prevent cold Central Asian katabatic winds from blowing in, keeping the bulk of the Indian subcontinent warmer than most locations at similar latitudes.[14] Simultaneously, the Thar Desert plays a role in attracting moisture-laden south-west monsoon winds between June and October, which provide the majority of India's rainfall.[13][15] Four major climatic groupings predominate, into which fall the seven climatic zones, that as designated by experts, are defined on the basis of such traits as temperature and precipitation.[16] Groupings are assigned codes (see chart) according to the Köppen climate classification system.

Tropical

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A tropical rainy climate governs regions experiencing persistent warm or high temperatures, which normally do not fall below 18 degrees Celsius (64 °F). India predominantly hosts two climatic subtypes that fall into this group: tropical monsoon climate and tropical savanna climate.

The most humid is the tropical wet climate—also known as the tropical monsoon climate—that covers a strip of southwestern lowlands abutting the Malabar Coast, the Western Ghats, and southern Assam. India's two island territories, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, are also subject to this climate. Characterised by moderate to high year-round temperatures, even in the foothills, its rainfall is seasonal but heavy—typically above 2,000 millimetres (79 inches) per year.[17] Most rainfall occurs between May and November; this moisture is enough to sustain lush forests, swampy areas and other vegetation for the rest of the mainly dry year. December to March are the driest months, when days with precipitation are rare. The heavy monsoon rains are responsible for the exceptional biodiversity of tropical wet forests in parts of these regions.

In India a tropical savanna climate is more common. Noticeably drier than areas with a tropical monsoon type of climate, it prevails over most of inland peninsular India except for a semi arid rain shadow east of the Western Ghats. Winter and early summer are long and dry periods with temperatures averaging above 18 °C (64 °F). Summer is exceedingly hot; temperatures in low-lying areas may exceed 50 °C (122 °F) during May, leading to heat waves that can each kill hundreds of Indians.[18] The rainy season lasts from June to September; annual rainfall averages between 750 and 1,500 mm (30 and 59 in) across the region. Once the dry northeast monsoon begins in September, most significant precipitation in India falls on Tamil Nadu and Puducherry leaving other states comparatively dry.

The Ganges Delta lies mostly in the tropical wet climate zone: it receives between 1,500 and 2,000 mm (59 and 79 in) of rainfall each year in the western part, and 2,000 and 3,000 mm (79 and 118 in) in the eastern part. The coolest month of the year, on average, is January; April and May are the warmest months. Average temperatures in January range from 14 to 25 °C (57 to 77 °F), and average temperatures in April range from 25 to 35 °C (77 to 95 °F). July is on average the coldest and wettest month: over 330 mm (13 in) of rain falls on the delta.[19]

Additionally, Nicobar Islands rain forests experience a Tropical rainforest climate.[20]

Arid and semi-arid regions

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Arid and semi-arid climate dominates regions where the rate of moisture loss through evapotranspiration exceeds that from precipitation;

A semi-arid steppe climate (hot semi-arid climate) predominates over a long stretch of land south of Tropic of Cancer and east of the Western Ghats and the Cardamom Hills. The region, which includes Karnataka, inland Tamil Nadu, western Andhra Pradesh, and central Maharashtra, gets between 400 and 750 millimetres (15.7 and 29.5 in) annually. It is drought-prone, as it tends to have less reliable rainfall due to sporadic lateness or failure of the southwest monsoon.[21] Karnataka is divided into three zones—coastal, north interior and south interior. Of these, the coastal zone receives the most precipitation, averaging 3,638 mm (143.2 in) per annum, far in excess of the state average of 1,139 mm (44.8 in). In contrast to norm, Agumbe in the Shivamogga district receives the second highest annual rainfall in India. North of the Krishna River, the summer monsoon is responsible for most rainfall; to the south, significant post-monsoon rainfall also occurs in October and November. In December, the coldest month, temperatures still average around 20–24 °C (68–75 °F). The months between March and May are hot and dry; mean monthly temperatures hover around 32 °C (90 °F), with 320 millimetres (12.6 in) precipitation. Hence, without artificial irrigation, this region is not suitable for permanent agriculture.[citation needed]

View of dunes at sunset. The setting sun hangs low and dim in a sky graded from fiery orange at top to maroon near the horizon. Terrestrial features are difficult to discern in the crepuscular illumination.
The Thar Desert

Most of western Rajasthan experiences an arid climatic regime (hot desert climate). Cloudbursts are responsible for virtually all of the region's annual precipitation, which totals less than 300 millimetres (11.8 in). Such bursts happen when monsoon winds sweep into the region during July, August, and September. Such rainfall is highly erratic; regions experiencing rainfall one year may not see precipitation for the next couple of years or so. Atmospheric moisture is largely prevented from precipitating due to continuous downdrafts and other factors.[22] The summer months of May and June are exceptionally hot; mean monthly temperatures in the region hover around 35 °C (95 °F), with daily maxima occasionally topping 50 °C (122 °F). During winters, temperatures in some areas can drop below freezing due to waves of cold air from Central Asia. There is a large diurnal range of about 14 °C (25 °F) during summer; this widens by several degrees during winter. There is a small desert area in the south near Adoni in Andhra Pradesh, the only desert in South India, experiencing maximum temperatures of 47 °C (117 °F) in summers and 18 °C (64 °F) in winters.[citation needed]

Dust storm in the Thar Desert

To the west, in Gujarat, diverse climate conditions prevail. The winters are mild, pleasant, and dry with average daytime temperatures around 29 °C (84 °F) and nights around 12 °C (54 °F) with virtually full sun and clear nights. Summers are hot and dry with daytime temperatures around 41 °C (106 °F) and nights no lower than 29 °C (84 °F). In the weeks before the monsoon temperatures are similar to the above, but high humidity makes the air more uncomfortable. Relief comes with the monsoon. Temperatures are around 35 °C (95 °F) but humidity is very high; nights are around 27 °C (81 °F). Most of the rainfall occurs in this season, and the rain can cause severe floods. The sun is often occluded during the monsoon season.[citation needed]

East of the Thar Desert, the PunjabHaryanaKathiawar region experiences a tropical and sub-tropical steppe climate. Haryana's climate resembles other states of the northern plains: extreme summer heat of up to 50 °C (122 °F) and winter cold as low as 1 °C (34 °F). May and June are hottest; December and January are coldest. Rainfall is varied, with the Shivalik Hills region being the wettest and the Bagar region being the driest. About 80 percent of the rainfall occurs in the monsoon season of July–September, which can cause flooding. The Punjabi climate is also governed by extremes of hot and cold. Areas near the Himalayan foothills receive heavy rainfall whereas those eloigned from them are hot and dry. Punjab's three-season climate sees summer months that span from mid-April to the end of June. Temperatures in Punjab typically range from −2 to 40 °C (28–104 °F), but can reach 47 °C (117 °F) in summer and fall to −4 °C (25 °F) in winter (while most of the nation does not experience temperatures below 10 °C (50 °F) even in winter). The zone, a transitional climatic region separating tropical desert from humid sub-tropical savanna and forests, experiences temperatures that are less extreme than those of the desert. Although the average annual rainfall is 300–650 millimetres (11.8–25.6 in), it is very unreliable; like in much of the rest of India, the southwest monsoon accounts for most precipitation. Summer daily maxima are around 40 °C (104 °F). All this results in a natural vegetation typically comprising short, coarse grasses.[citation needed]

Humid subtropical

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Most of Northeast India and much of North India are subject to a humid subtropical climate and a subtropical highland climate. Though they experience warm to hot summers, temperatures during the coldest months generally fall as low as 0 °C (32 °F). Due to ample monsoon rains, India has two subtropical climate subtypes under the Köppen system: Cwa and Cwb.[23] In most of this region, there is very little precipitation during the winter, owing to powerful anticyclonic and katabatic (downward-flowing) winds from Central Asia.

Humid subtropical regions are subject to pronounced dry winters. Winter rainfall—and occasionally snowfall—is associated with large storm systems such as "Nor'westers" and "Western disturbances"; the latter are steered by westerlies towards the Himalayas.[24] Most summer rainfall occurs during powerful thunderstorms associated with the southwest summer monsoon; occasional tropical cyclones also contribute. Annual rainfall ranges from less than 1,000 millimetres (39 in) in the west to over 2,500 millimetres (98 in) in parts of the northeast. As most of this region is far from the ocean, the wide temperature swings more characteristic of a continental climate predominate; the swings are wider than in those in tropical wet regions, ranging from 24 °C (75 °F) in north-central India to 27 °C (81 °F) in the east.[citation needed]

Mountain

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Daytime view of a large body of water standing before a prominent peak, which communicates with several others partly out of view and behind. A gravel beach at the far end of the lake gives way to steep slopes leading up to the peaks; The mountains lack trees. Patchy snowcover defines their recesses, and whitish vein-like streaks extend up from the base of the largest.
Pangong Lake in Ladakh, an arid montane region lying deep within the Himalayas.

India's northernmost areas are subject to a montane, or alpine, climate. In the Himalayas, the rate at which an air mass's temperature falls per kilometre (3,281 ft) of altitude gained (the dry adiabatic lapse rate) is 9.8 °C/km.[25] In terms of environmental lapse rate, ambient temperatures fall by 6.5 °C (11.7 °F) for every 1,000 metres (3,281 ft) rise in altitude. Thus, climates ranging from nearly tropical in the foothills to tundra above the snow line can coexist within several hundred metres of each other. Sharp temperature contrasts between sunny and shady slopes, high diurnal temperature variability, temperature inversions, and altitude-dependent variability in rainfall are also common.

The northern side of the western Himalayas, also known as the trans-Himalayan belt, has a cold desert climate. It is a region of barren, arid, frigid and wind-blown wastelands. Areas south of the Himalayas are largely protected from cold winter winds coming in from the Asian interior. The leeward side (northern face) of the mountains receives less rain.

The southern slopes of the western Himalayas, well-exposed to the monsoon, get heavy rainfall. Areas situated at elevations of 1,070–2,290 metres (3,510–7,510 ft) receive the heaviest rainfall, which decreases rapidly at elevations above 2,290 metres (7,513 ft). Most precipitation occurs as snowfall during the late winter and spring months. The Himalayas experience their heaviest snowfall between December and February and at elevations above 1,500 metres (4,921 ft). Snowfall increases with elevation by up to several dozen millimetres per 100 metre (~2 in; 330 ft) increase. Elevations above 6,000 metres (19,685 ft) never experience rain; all precipitation falls as snow.[26]

Daytime view of a small marshy lake surrounded by dry brush in winter. Behind the lake in the far-middle distance, a large stand of trees interposes itself in front of a lone massif in the far distance. The sun is out of view to the left.
A winter scene in Bandhavgarh National Park, Madhya Pradesh.

Seasons

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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) designates four climatological seasons:[27]

  • Winter, occurring from December to February. The year's coldest months are December and January, when temperatures average around 10–15 °C (50–59 °F) in the northwest; temperatures rise as one proceeds towards the equator, peaking around 20–25 °C (68–77 °F) in mainland India's southeast.
  • Summer or Pre-monsoon season, lasting from March to June. In western and southern regions, the hottest month is April and the beginning of May and for northern regions of India, May is the hottest Month. In May, Temperatures average around 32–40 °C (90–104 °F) in most of the interior.
  • Monsoon or South-west monsoon season, lasting from June to September. The season is dominated by the humid southwest summer monsoon, which slowly sweeps across the country beginning in late May or early June. Monsoon rains begin to recede from North India at the beginning of October. South India typically receives more rainfall.
  • Post-monsoon or North-east monsoon season, lasting from October to November. In the north of India, October and November are usually cloudless. Tamil Nadu receives most of its annual precipitation in the northeast monsoon season.

The Himalayan and Upper Gangetic Plains, being more temperate, experience an additional season, spring, which coincides with the first weeks of summer in southern India.[28] Traditionally, North Indians note six seasons or Ritu, each about two months long. These are the spring season (Sanskrit: vasanta), summer (grīṣma), monsoon season (varṣā), autumn (śarada), winter (hemanta), and prevernal season[29] (śiśira). These are based on the astronomical division of the twelve months into six parts. The ancient Hindu calendar also reflects these seasons in its arrangement of months.

Tamil seasons

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  • In Tamil the seasons are called paruvam which means part or a season and they are summer kōɖai(hot summer) paruvam or kālam, winter kuɭir(chill) Kālam or paruvam and rainy which is maɻai Kālam or paruvam and Autumn which is ilaiyudhir( means leaf falling) Kālam or paruvam and spring is Ila Venir Kālam( leaf growing) or paruvam and rainy or monsoon is Kār(black clouds) paruvam or Kālam.

The word Kālam or paruvam is the word for season in tamil standard. These words are generally derived from proto dravidian and is continuosly used till today to refer seasons which is independent to that of sanskrit. It's not present in other south indian languages but some village dialects of malayalam.

Winter

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Daytime view looking down from a snowy ridge onto a mountain valley far below, lost in mist. Continuing into the far distance at right, a series of high snow-covered mountains continue the ridge. The mountains are mostly covered in evergreen forest; dappled sunlight strikes the snow cover.
Inclement conditions in the Indian Himalayas: a view of Gulmarg, a popular tourist destination in Jammu and Kashmir in winter.

Once the monsoons subside, average temperatures gradually fall across India. As the Sun's vertical rays move south of the equator, most of the country experiences moderately cool weather. December and January are the coldest months, with the lowest temperatures occurring in the Indian Himalayas. Temperatures are higher in the east and south.

In northwestern India region, virtually cloudless conditions prevail in October and November, resulting in wide diurnal temperature swings; as in much of the Deccan Plateau, they register at 16–20 °C (61–68 °F). However, from January to February, "western disturbances" bring heavy bursts of rain and snow. These extra-tropical low-pressure systems originate in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.[30] They are carried towards India by the subtropical westerlies, which are the prevailing winds blowing at North India's range of latitude.[24] Once their passage is hindered by the Himalayas, they are unable to proceed further, and they release significant precipitation over the southern Himalayas.

There is a huge variation in the climatic conditions of Himachal Pradesh due to variation in altitude (450–6500 metres). The climate varies from hot and subtropical humid (450–900 metres) in the southern low tracts, warm and temperate (900–1800 metres), cool and temperate (1900–2400 metres) and cold glacial and alpine (2400–4800 metres) in the northern and eastern elevated mountain ranges. By October, nights and mornings are very cold. Snowfall at elevations of nearly 3000 m is about 3 m and lasts from December start to March end. Elevations above 4500 m support perpetual snow. The spring season starts from mid February to mid April. The weather is pleasant and comfortable in the season. The rainy season starts at the end of the month of June. The landscape lushes green and fresh. During the season streams and natural springs are replenished. The heavy rains in July and August cause a lot of damage resulting in erosion, floods and landslides. Out of all the state districts, Dharamshala receives the highest rainfall, nearly about 3,400 mm (134 in). Spiti is the driest area of the state, where annual rainfall is below 50 mm.[31] The five Himalayan states (Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir in the extreme north, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in far east) and Northern West Bengal experience heavy snowfall, Manipur and Nagaland are not located in the Himalayas but experience occasional snowfall; in Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, blizzards occur regularly, disrupting travel and other activities.

The rest of North India, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Madhya Pradesh almost never receives snow. Temperatures in the plains occasionally fall below freezing, though never for more than one or two days. Winter highs in Delhi range from 16 to 21 °C (61 to 70 °F). Nighttime temperatures average 2–8 °C (36–46 °F). In the plains of Punjab, lows can fall below freezing, dropping to around −3 °C (27 °F) in Amritsar.[32] Frost sometimes occurs, but the hallmark of the season is the notorious fog, which frequently disrupts daily life; fog grows thick enough to hinder visibility and disrupt air travel 15–20 days annually. In Bihar in middle of the Ganges plain, hot weather sets in and the summer lasts until the middle of June. The highest temperature is often registered in late May or early June which is the hottest time. Like the rest of the north, Bihar also experiences dust-storms, thunderstorms and dust raising winds during the hot season. Dust storms having a velocity of 48–64 km/h (30–40 mph) are most frequent in May and with second maximum in April and June. The hot winds (loo) of Bihar plains blow during April and May with an average velocity of 8–16 km/h (5–10 mph). These hot winds greatly affect human comfort during this season. Rain follows.[33] The rainy season begins in June. The rainiest months are July and August. The rains are the gifts of the southwest monsoon. There are in Bihar three distinct areas where rainfall exceeds 1,800 mm (71 in). Two of them are in the northern and northwestern portions of the state; the third lies in the area around Netarhat. The southwest monsoon normally withdraws from Bihar in the first week of October.[34] Eastern India's climate is milder but gets colder as one moves north west, experiencing moderately warm days to cool days and cool nights to cold nights. Highs ranges from 18 °C to 23 °C (64 °F to 73 °F) in Patna; to 22 °C to 27 °C (72 °F to 80 °F) in Kolkata (Calcutta); lows averages from 7 °C to 10 °C (45 °F to 50 °F) in Patna; to 12 °C to 15 °C (54 °F to 59 °F) in Kolkata. In Madhya Pradesh which is towards the south-western side of the Gangetic Plain similar conditions prevail albeit with much less humidity levels. Capital Bhopal averages low of 9 °C (48 °F) and high of 24 °C (75 °F).

Late daytime view looking far out over an ocean from a beach, which is out of view off the bottom margin. Three-fourths of the shot features a sky marked by heavy cloud cover, which is parting near the middle, revealing a dazzlingly bright cerulean blue sky that darkens near the margins. The ocean is striated with waves coming in parallel to the horizon.
Late-season monsoonal sunset, Coromandel Coast.

Frigid winds from the Himalayas can depress temperatures near the Brahmaputra River.[35] The Himalayas have a profound effect on the climate of the Indian subcontinent and the Tibetan plateau by preventing frigid and dry Arctic winds from blowing south into the subcontinent, which keeps South Asia much warmer than corresponding temperate regions in the other continents. It also forms a barrier for the monsoon winds, keeping them from travelling northwards, and causing heavy rainfall in the Terai region instead. The Himalayas are indeed believed to play an important role in the formation of Central Asian deserts such as the Taklamakan and Gobi. The mountain ranges prevent western winter disturbances in Iran from travelling further east, resulting in much snow in Kashmir and rainfall for parts of Punjab and northern India. Despite the Himalayas being a barrier to the cold northerly winter winds, the Brahmaputra valley receives part of the frigid winds, thus lowering the temperature in Northeast India and Bangladesh. The Himalayas contain the greatest area of glaciers and permafrost outside of the poles, and account for the origin of ten of Asia's largest rivers. The two Himalayan states in the east, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, receive substantial snowfall. The extreme north of West Bengal centred on Darjeeling experiences snowfall, but only rarely.

In South India, particularly the hinterlands of Maharashtra, parts of Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, somewhat cooler weather prevails. Minimum temperatures in eastern Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh hover around 10 °C (50 °F); in the southern Deccan Plateau, they reach 16 °C (61 °F). Coastal areas—especially those near the Coromandel Coast and adjacent low-elevation interior tracts—are warm, with daily high temperatures of 30 °C (86 °F) and lows of around 21 °C (70 °F). The Western Ghats, including the Nilgiri Range, are exceptional; lows there can fall below freezing.[36] This compares with a range of 12–14 °C (54–57 °F) on the Malabar Coast; there, as is the case for other coastal areas, the Indian Ocean exerts a strong moderating influence on weather.[14] The region averages 800 millimetres (31 in)

Summer

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Daytime sunlit view of a verdant bowl-shaped meadow with a small pond in a valley rimmed by several prominent hills covered in evergreen forest. At centre-left and looking out on the meadow, a small cluster of tourist lodges with pitched roofs, one a bright red. Around them and the pond are small, gaily coloured gazebos and shade-giving umbrellas. Several dozen tourists and sheep mill about the pond and in the meadow.
A summer view of Khajjiar, a hill station in Himachal Pradesh.

Summer in northwestern India starts from April and ends in July, and in the rest of the country from March to May but sometimes lasts to mid June. The temperatures in the north rise as the vertical rays of the Sun reach the Tropic of Cancer. The hottest month for the western and southern regions of the country is April; for most of North India, it is May. Temperatures of 50 °C (122 °F) and higher have been recorded in parts of India during this season. Another striking feature of summer is the Loo. These are strong, gusty, hot, dry winds that blow during the day in India. Direct exposure to the heat that comes with these winds may be fatal.[18] In cooler regions of North India, immense pre-monsoon squall-line thunderstorms, known locally as "Nor'westers", commonly drop large hailstones. In Himachal Pradesh, Summer lasts from mid April till the end of June and most parts become very hot (except in alpine zone which experience mild summer) with the average temperature ranging from 28 °C (82 °F) to 32 °C (90 °F).[37] Near the coast, the temperature hovers around 36 °C (97 °F), and the proximity of the sea increases the level of humidity. In southern India, the temperatures are higher on the east coast by a few degrees compared to the west coast.

By May, most of the Indian interior experiences mean temperatures over 32 °C (90 °F), while maximum temperatures often exceed 40 °C (104 °F). In the hot months of April and May, western disturbances, with their cooling influence, may still arrive, but rapidly diminish in frequency as summer progresses.[38] Notably, a higher frequency of such disturbances in April correlates with a delayed monsoon onset (thus extending summer) in northwest India. In eastern India, monsoon onset dates have been steadily advancing over the past several decades, resulting in shorter summers there.[24]

Altitude affects the temperature to a large extent, with higher parts of the Deccan Plateau and other areas being relatively cooler. Hill stations, such as Ootacamund ("Ooty") in the Western Ghats and Kalimpong in the eastern Himalayas, with average maximum temperatures of around 25 °C (77 °F), offer some respite from the heat. At lower elevations, in parts of northern and western India, a strong, hot, and dry wind known as the loo blows in from the west during the daytime; with very high temperatures, in some cases up to around 45 °C (113 °F); it can cause fatal cases of sunstroke. Tornadoes may also occur, concentrated in a corridor stretching from northeastern India towards Pakistan. They are rare, however; only several dozen have been reported since 1835.

Monsoon

[edit]
India monsoon onset map.
Onset dates and prevailing wind currents of the southwest summer and northeast winter monsoons.
India average annual rainfall map. A map of India overlaid with various zones of differing shades of blue. Each shade represents a region receiving a similar annual precipitation total. The wettest region comprises the northeastern "Seven Sisters" states centred on Assam; the southwestern littoral in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra is another wet region of over 250 centimetres per annum, depicted in a dark shade of navy blue. The rest of the country in between them is shown in lighter shades; the driest region is seen in the northwest near the borders with Pakistan and China, parts of which, according to the legend, are seen to obtain less than 20 centimetres per annum.
Regional variation in rainfall across India. The monsoon season delivers four-fifths of the country's precipitation.
Fishing boats parked in the Anjarle creek for the monsoon season. Fishing in the coastal areas is not possible now due to the harsh weather conditions.

The southwest summer monsoon, a four-month period when massive convective thunderstorms dominate India's weather, is Earth's most productive wet season.[39] A product of southeast trade winds originating from a high-pressure mass centred over the southern Indian Ocean, the monsoonal torrents supply over 80% of India's annual rainfall.[40] Attracted by a low-pressure region centred over South Asia, the mass spawns surface winds that ferry humid air into India from the southwest.[41] These inflows ultimately result from a northward shift of the local jet stream, which itself results from rising summer temperatures over Tibet and the Indian subcontinent. The void left by the jet stream, which switches from a route just south of the Himalayas to one tracking north of Tibet, then attracts warm, humid air.[42]

The main factor behind this shift is the high summer temperature difference between Central Asia and the Indian Ocean.[43] This is accompanied by a seasonal excursion of the normally equatorial intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a low-pressure belt of highly unstable weather, northward towards India.[42] This system intensified to its present strength as a result of the Tibetan Plateau's uplift, which accompanied the EoceneOligocene transition event, a major episode of global cooling and aridification which occurred 34–49 Ma.[44]

The southwest monsoon arrives in two branches: the Bay of Bengal branch and the Arabian Sea branch. The latter extends towards a low-pressure area over the Thar Desert and is roughly three times stronger than the Bay of Bengal branch. The monsoon typically breaks over Indian territory by around 25 May, when it lashes the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal. It strikes the Indian mainland around 1 June near the Malabar Coast of Kerala.[45] By 9 June, it reaches Mumbai; it appears over Delhi by 29 June. The Bay of Bengal branch, which initially tracks the Coromandel Coast northeast from Cape Comorin to Orissa, swerves to the northwest towards the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The Arabian Sea branch moves northeast towards the Himalayas. By the first week of July, the entire country experiences monsoon rain; on average, South India receives more rainfall than North India. However, Northeast India receives the most precipitation. Monsoon clouds begin retreating from North India by the end of August; it withdraws from Mumbai by 5 October. As India further cools during September, the southwest monsoon weakens. By the end of November, it has left the country.[42]

Daytime view over a city: de-laminating concrete housing blocks surrounded by rough slum tenements. In the middle distance, an expanse of trees: perhaps a park. Near the horizon, the largely concrete structures that compose the city continue. The whole is enveloped by an ominous sky filled with storm clouds promising imminent heavy rain.
Pre-monsoon clouds, as they appear in Mumbai, western Maharashtra.

Monsoon rains affect the health of the Indian economy; as Indian agriculture employs 600 million people and constitutes 20% of the national GDP,[4] good monsoons correlate with a booming economy. Weak or failed monsoons (droughts) result in widespread agricultural losses and substantially hinder overall economic growth.[46][47][48] Yet such rains reduce temperatures and can replenish groundwater tables and rivers.

Post-monsoon

[edit]

During the post-monsoon or autumn months of October to December, a different monsoon cycle, the northeast (or "retreating") monsoon, brings dry, cool, and dense air masses to large parts of India. Winds spill across the Himalayas and flow to the southwest across the country, resulting in clear, sunny skies.[49] Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other sources refers to this period as a fourth ("post-monsoon") season,[50][51][52] other sources designate only three seasons.[53] Depending on location, this period lasts from October to November, after the southwest monsoon has peaked. Less and less precipitation falls, and vegetation begins to dry out. In most parts of India, this period marks the transition from wet to dry seasonal conditions. Average daily maximum temperatures range between 25 and 34 °C (77 and 93 °F) in the Southern parts.

The northeast monsoon, which begins between September and October, lasts through the post-monsoon seasons, and only ends between December and January. It carries winds that have already lost their moisture out to the ocean (opposite from the summer monsoon). They cross India diagonally from northeast to southwest. However, the large indentation made by the Bay of Bengal into India's eastern coast means that the flows are humidified before reaching Cape Comorin and rest of Tamil Nadu, meaning that the state, and also some parts of Kerala, experience significant precipitation in the post-monsoon and winter periods.[19] However, parts of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Mumbai also receive minor precipitation from the north-east monsoon.

Statistics

[edit]

Shown below are temperature and precipitation data for selected Indian cities; these represent the full variety of major Indian climate types. Figures have been grouped by the four-season classification scheme used by the Indian Meteorological Department;[N 1] year-round averages and totals are also displayed.

Temperature

[edit]
Average temperatures in various Indian cities (°C)[54][55][56][57][58]
Winter
(Dec – Feb)
Summer
(Mar – May)
Monsoon
(Jun – Sep)
Post-monsoon
(Oct – Nov)
Year-round
City Min Avg Max Min Avg Max Min Avg Max Min Avg Max Avg
New Delhi 7 14 20 16 28 36 28 30 35 13 19 26 25
Port Blair 23 26 28 25 27 29 25 27 27 25 26 28 27
Thiruvananthapuram 23 26 29 24 27 30 24 26 28 23 29 23 26
Bangalore 15 22 28 21 27 34 20 24 28 19 23 28 24
Nagpur 14 21 28 24 32 40 24 27 30 16 22 28 26
Bhopal 11 17 24 23 30 36 23 26 28 16 22 26 25
Guwahati 11 17 24 19 25 31 25 28 32 17 22 27 24
Kolkata 16 22 27 24 30 35 26 30 33 22 26 31 27
Lucknow 8 14 21 23 30 35 24 29 33 15 20 25 25
Siliguri 11 17 24 19 25 31 24 27 31 18 24 29 24
Jaisalmer 7 14 23 24 33 40 23 29 35 12 19 27 22
Dehradun 4 12 20 14 23 32 22 26 30 7 15 23 18
Amritsar 4 10 18 13 25 34 25 28 32 10 16 24 21
Shimla 1 5 9 10 14 18 15 18 20 7 10 13 13
Srinagar −2 4 6 7 14 19 16 22 30 1 8 16 13
Leh −13 −6 0 −1 6 12 10 16 24 −7 0 7 6
Leh
Climate chart (explanation)
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
 
 
12
 
 
−1
−13
 
 
8.6
 
 
0
−12
 
 
12
 
 
6
−6
 
 
6.9
 
 
12
−1
 
 
6.5
 
 
17
2
 
 
4.3
 
 
21
6
 
 
15
 
 
24
10
 
 
20
 
 
24
10
 
 
12
 
 
21
5
 
 
0
 
 
14
0
 
 
2.9
 
 
8
−6
 
 
8
 
 
1
−10
Average max. and min. temperatures in °C
Precipitation totals in mm
Source: Weatherbase, Plan Holidays
Imperial conversion
JFMAMJJASOND
 
 
0.5
 
 
30
9
 
 
0.3
 
 
32
10
 
 
0.5
 
 
43
21
 
 
0.3
 
 
54
30
 
 
0.3
 
 
63
36
 
 
0.2
 
 
70
43
 
 
0.6
 
 
75
50
 
 
0.8
 
 
75
50
 
 
0.5
 
 
70
41
 
 
0
 
 
57
32
 
 
0.1
 
 
46
21
 
 
0.3
 
 
34
14
Average max. and min. temperatures in °F
Precipitation totals in inches

Precipitation

[edit]
Average precipitation in various Indian cities (mm)[55][56][57][58]
Winter
(Jan – Feb)
Summer
(Mar – May)
Monsoon
(Jun – Sep)
Post-monsoon
(Oct – Dec)
Year-round
City Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Delhi 19 21 17 16 31 74 210 233 124 15 6 8 774
Port Blair 40 20 10 60 360 480 400 400 460 290 220 150 2,890
Thiruvananthapuram 26 21 33 125 202 306 175 152 179 223 206 65 1,713
Bangalore 31 20 61 110 150 212 249 279 315 291 210 140 1,962
Nagpur 16 22 15 8 18 168 290 291 157 73 17 19 1,094
Bhopal 4 3 1 3 11 136 279 360 185 52 21 7 1,043
Guwahati 8 21 47 181 226 309 377 227 199 92 25 10 1,722
Lucknow 20 18 8 8 20 114 305 292 188 33 5 8 1,019
Jaisalmer 3 7 10 90 88 15 6 219
Dehradun 47 55 52 21 54 230 631 627 261 32 11 3 2,024
Amritsar 24 33 48 30 45 27 231 187 79 18 6 18 746
Shimla 60 60 60 50 60 170 420 430 160 30 10 20 1,530
Srinagar 74 71 91 94 61 36 58 61 38 31 10 33 658
Leh 12 9 12 6 7 4 16 20 12 7 3 8 116
All India 17 23 30 39 61 165 280 255 167 75 30 16 1160
Bangalore
Climate chart (explanation)
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
 
 
3
 
 
27
15
 
 
7
 
 
30
17
 
 
4
 
 
32
19
 
 
46
 
 
34
22
 
 
120
 
 
33
21
 
 
81
 
 
29
20
 
 
110
 
 
28
20
 
 
137
 
 
27
19
 
 
195
 
 
28
19
 
 
180
 
 
28
19
 
 
65
 
 
27
17
 
 
21
 
 
26
16
Average max. and min. temperatures in °C
Precipitation totals in mm
Source: World Weather Information Service
Imperial conversion
JFMAMJJASOND
 
 
0.1
 
 
81
59
 
 
0.3
 
 
86
63
 
 
0.2
 
 
90
66
 
 
1.8
 
 
93
72
 
 
4.7
 
 
91
70
 
 
3.2
 
 
84
68
 
 
4.3
 
 
82
68
 
 
5.4
 
 
81
66
 
 
7.7
 
 
82
66
 
 
7.1
 
 
82
66
 
 
2.6
 
 
81
63
 
 
0.8
 
 
79
61
Average max. and min. temperatures in °F
Precipitation totals in inches

Disasters

[edit]
India climatic disasters risk map.
Disaster-prone regions in India, shaded by type.
India wind zone map. A map of India overlaid with zones of various shades of blue, each representing a region that experiences a similar level of windiness. The entire eastern littoral and the northern half of the country are shaded in relatively dark blues, signifying relatively windy prevailing conditions of between 30 and 50 metres per second. The darkest blue region is in the extreme north, beyond the Himalayas in Ladakh, on the Tibetan Plateau; there, sustained winds average over 50 metres per second. The inland central, south, and especially the southwestern portions are shaded in light blues: they are relatively windless, averaging less than 30 metres per second.
Map showing winds zones, shaded by distribution of average speeds of prevailing winds.

Climate-related natural disasters cause massive losses of Indian life and property. Droughts, flash floods, cyclones, avalanches, landslides brought on by torrential rains, and snowstorms pose the greatest threats. Other dangers include frequent summer dust storms, which usually track from north to south; they cause extensive property damage in North India[59] and deposit large amounts of dust from arid regions. Hail is also common in parts of India, causing severe damage to standing crops such as rice and wheat.

Floods and landslides

[edit]
Relief efforts by the Indian Navy in Chennai

In the Lower Himalayas, landslides are common. The young age of the region's hills result in labile rock formations, which are susceptible to slippages. Short duration high intensity rainfall events typically trigger small scale landslides while long duration low intensity rainfall periods tend to trigger large scale catastrophic landslides.[60] Rising population and development pressures, particularly from logging and tourism, cause deforestation. The result, denuded hillsides, exacerbates the severity of landslides, since tree cover impedes the downhill flow of water.[61] Parts of the Western Ghats also suffer from low-intensity landslides. Avalanches occur in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Floods are the most common natural disaster in India. The heavy southwest monsoon rains cause the Brahmaputra and other rivers to distend their banks, often flooding surrounding areas. Though they provide rice paddy farmers with a largely dependable source of natural irrigation and fertilisation, the floods can kill thousands and displace millions. Excess, erratic, or untimely monsoon rainfall may also wash away or otherwise ruin crops.[62] Almost all of India is flood-prone, and extreme precipitation events, such as flash floods and torrential rains, have become increasingly common in central India over the past several decades, coinciding with rising temperatures. Mean annual precipitation totals have remained steady due to the declining frequency of weather systems that generate moderate amounts of rain.[63]

Tropical cyclones

[edit]
Vardah making landfall at the coast of Chennai, India.
Satellite view looking over the Bay of Bengal, deliminated by India to its west, Bangladesh to its north, and Indochina to its west. Various patches of substantial storm tracts define the southern margins of the shot, but a larger buzzsaw-shaped whorl of clouds sits above the northern Bay, just beginning to impact parts of Orissa, West Bengal and Bangladesh.
Satellite imagery of Cyclone 05B in the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical cyclones, which are severe storms spun off from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, may affect thousands of Indians living in coastal regions. Tropical cyclogenesis is particularly common in the northern reaches of the Indian Ocean in and around the Bay of Bengal. Cyclones bring with them heavy rains, storm surges, and winds that often cut affected areas off from relief and supplies. In the North Indian Ocean Basin, the cyclone season runs from April to December, with peak activity between May and November.[64] Each year, an average of eight storms with sustained wind speeds greater than 63 km/h (39 mph) form; of these, two strengthen into true tropical cyclones, which sustain gusts greater than 117 km/h (73 mph). On average, a major (Category 3 or higher) cyclone develops every other year.[64][65]

During summer, the Bay of Bengal is subject to intense heating, giving rise to humid and unstable air masses that morph into cyclones. The 1737 Calcutta cyclone, the 1970 Bhola cyclone, and the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone rank among the most powerful cyclones to strike India, devastating the coasts of eastern India and neighbouring Bangladesh. Widespread death and property destruction are reported every year in the exposed coastal states of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. India's western coast, bordering the more placid Arabian Sea, experiences cyclones only rarely; these mainly strike Gujarat and Maharashtra, less frequently in Kerala.

The 1999 Odisha cyclone was the most intense tropical cyclone in this basin and also the most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall in India. With peak winds of 260 kilometres per hour (162 mph), it was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.[66] Almost two million people were left homeless;[67]another 20 million people lives were disrupted by the cyclone.[67] Officially, 9,803 people died from the storm;[66] unofficial estimates place the death toll at over 10,000.[67]

Droughts

[edit]
A daytime view of a desiccated, scappled expanse that wholly fills the fore- and middle ground and arcs away to the horizon at left. Of clouds in the sky there are none whatever. At extreme right in the middle distance, a thin bank of trees sits on a slightly higher level, reaching to the middle and rightward horizon; people and livestock mill about before them. Several pink buildings, perhaps a village, sit similarly elevated in front of the trees at middle-right, beyond the dominating dusty expanse.
The dry bed of the Niranjana River, Bihar.

Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on the monsoon as a source of water. In some parts of India, the failure of the monsoons results in water shortages, resulting in below-average crop yields. This is particularly true of major drought-prone regions such as southern and eastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Western Orissa, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. In the past, droughts have periodically led to major Indian famines. These include the Bengal famine of 1770, in which up to one third of the population in affected areas died; the 1876–1877 famine, in which over five million people died; the 1899 famine, in which over 4.5 million died; and the Bengal famine of 1943, in which over five million died from starvation and famine-related illnesses.[68][69]

All such episodes of severe drought correlate with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.[70][71] El Niño-related droughts have also been implicated in periodic declines in Indian agricultural output.[72] Nevertheless, ENSO events that have coincided with abnormally high sea surfaces temperatures in the Indian Ocean—in one instance during 1997 and 1998 by up to 3 °C (5 °F)—have resulted in increased oceanic evaporation, resulting in unusually wet weather across India. Such anomalies have occurred during a sustained warm spell that began in the 1990s.[73] A contrasting phenomenon is that, instead of the usual high pressure air mass over the southern Indian Ocean, an ENSO-related oceanic low pressure convergence centre forms; it then continually pulls dry air from Central Asia, desiccating India during what should have been the humid summer monsoon season. This reversed air flow causes India's droughts.[74] The extent that an ENSO event raises sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean influences the extent of drought.[70]

Heat waves

[edit]

A study from 2005 concluded that heat waves significantly increased in frequency, persistence and spatial coverage in the decade 1991–2000, when compared to the period between 1971–80 and 1981–90. A severe heat wave in Orissa in 1998 resulted in nearly 1300 deaths. Based on observations, heat wave related mortality has increased in India prior to 2005.[75] The 2015 Indian heat wave killed more than 2,500 people. In April 2024, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted a heat wave spell lasting approximately ten to twenty days longer than normal length of four to eight days during the three-month period between April and June.[76] In June 2024, day temperatures reached 44.9 °C (112.8 °F) in New Delhi and temperatures were at their highest in six years overnight. Five people have been reported as dead due to this current heatwave.[77][78]

Extremes

[edit]

Extreme temperatures: low

[edit]

India's lowest recorded temperature was −45.0 °C (−49 °F) in Dras, Ladakh. However, temperatures on Siachen Glacier near Bilafond La (5,450 metres or 17,881 feet) and Sia La (5,589 metres or 18,337 feet) have fallen below −55 °C (−67 °F),[79] while blizzards bring wind speeds in excess of 250 km/h (155 mph),[80] or hurricane-force winds ranking at 12—the maximum—on the Beaufort scale. These conditions, not hostile actions, caused more than 97% of the roughly 15,000 casualties suffered among Indian and Pakistani soldiers during the Siachen conflict.[79][80][81]

Extreme temperatures: high

[edit]

The highest temperature ever recorded in India occurred on 16 May 2016 in Phalodi, Rajasthan at 51.0 °C (124 °F). A temperature of up to 52.4 °C (126 °F) has been recorded in Jaisalmer District on 2 May 2016 near the border of Pakistan but the standard conditions are yet to be verified.

Rain

[edit]
The highest plunge waterfall/ heavy rainfall in Karnataka a state of India

The average annual precipitation of 11,861 millimetres (467 in) in the village of Mawsynram, in the hilly northeastern state of Meghalaya, is the highest recorded in Asia, and possibly on Earth.[82] The village, which sits at an elevation of 1,401 metres (4,596 ft), benefits from its proximity to both the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal. However, since the town of Cherrapunji, 5 kilometres (3.1 mi) to the east, is the nearest town to host a meteorological office—none has ever existed in Mawsynram—it is officially credited as being the world's wettest place.[83] In recent years the Cherrapunji-Mawsynram region has averaged between 9,296 and 10,820 millimetres (366 and 426 in)[9] of rain annually, though Cherrapunji has had at least one period of daily rainfall that lasted almost two years.[84] India's highest recorded one-day rainfall total occurred on 26 July 2005, when Mumbai received 944 mm (37 in);[85] the massive flooding that resulted killed over 900 people.[86][87]

Snow

[edit]

Remote regions of Jammu and Kashmir, such as the Pir Panjal Range, experience exceptionally heavy snowfall. Kashmir's highest recorded monthly snowfall occurred in February 1967, when 8.4 metres (27.6 ft) fell in Gulmarg, though the IMD has recorded snowdrifts up to 12 metres (39.4 ft) in several Kashmiri districts. In February 2005, more than 200 people died when, in four days, a western disturbance brought up to 2 metres (6.6 ft) of snowfall to parts of the state.[88]

Climate change

[edit]

India was ranked seventh among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2019.[89] India emits about 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases each year; about two and a half tons per person, which is less than the world average.[90] The country emits 7% of global emissions, despite having 17% of the world population.[91] The climate change performance index of India ranks eighth among 63 countries which account for 92% of all GHG emissions in the year 2021.[92]

Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat, threatening the flow rate of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna and other major rivers. A 2007 World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report states that the Indus River may run dry for the same reason.[93] Severe landslides and floods are projected to become increasingly common in such states as Assam.[94] Heat waves' frequency and intensity are increasing in India because of climate change.[95] Temperatures in India have risen by 0.7 °C (1.3 °F) between 1901 and 2018.[96]

Atmospheric pollution

[edit]
Satellite view of the northern portion of South Asia. The arc of a substantial range of mountains, the Himalayas, dips into the shot, then back up out of view. Immediately beneath, a large region of plains is hidden by a continuous cloud-like opaque mass that has collected along the southern margins of the mountains. It proceeds eastward, staying just south of the Himalayas, then bends due south to reach the Bay of Bengal. Two parts of the mass appear particularly dense, showing up as bright white blobs in the shot.
Clouds of thick haze and smoke may form over the Ganges river basin. This image was captured at 10:50 IST on 17 December 2004.[97]

Thick haze and smoke originating from burning biomass in northwestern India[98] and air pollution from large industrial cities in northern India[99] often concentrate over the Ganges Basin. Prevailing westerlies carry aerosols along the southern margins of the sheer-faced Tibetan Plateau towards eastern India and the Bay of Bengal. Dust and black carbon, which are blown towards higher altitudes by winds at the southern margins of the Himalayas, can absorb shortwave radiation and heat the air over the Tibetan Plateau. The net atmospheric heating due to aerosol absorption causes the air to warm and convect upwards, increasing the concentration of moisture in the mid-troposphere and providing positive feedback that stimulates further heating of aerosols.[99]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Citations

[edit]
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References

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Further reading

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from Grokipedia
The climate of India is predominantly tropical in nature, featuring pronounced seasonal rhythms driven by the interplay of solar heating, oceanic influences, and topographic barriers such as the , which modulate temperature extremes and precipitation distribution across the subcontinent. The southwest summer , advancing from the southwest between and , delivers approximately 75% of the annual rainfall, averaging around 85-90 cm nationwide during this period, though totals vary starkly from over 1,000 cm in the northeastern hills to under 20 cm in the arid northwest. Regional diversity is evident in the alpine cold deserts of , the hot arid , and the humid tropics of the south, with mean annual temperatures ranging from below 20°C in high-altitude zones to exceeding 25°C over much of the peninsula. This variability, compounded by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other teleconnections, frequently results in floods, droughts, and cyclones, underscoring the challenges of water resource management in a densely populated agrarian .

Paleoclimatic History

Geological Formation and Early Climates

The originated as part of the Gondwanan supercontinent, which underwent initial fragmentation phases during the to early Jurassic periods, with India's subsequent northward drift accelerating after rifting from and around 120 million years ago in the . This isolation as a facilitated its rapid migration northward at rates exceeding 15 cm per year, culminating in the collision with the Eurasian plate approximately 50 million years ago during the Eocene epoch. The convergence compressed and uplifted the , initiating the formation of the Himalayan and the , which redirected by creating a high-elevation barrier that enhanced seasonal pressure gradients between the Asian landmass and the . This tectonic collision fundamentally altered paleoclimate dynamics, fostering the precursors to modern systems through intensified summer heating over the elevated , which drew moist air masses northward and promoted rainfall seasonality. Marine sedimentary archives from the , including oxygen isotope ratios in , indicate post-collision increases in intensity around 45-50 million years ago, reflecting enhanced hydrological cycling tied to the uplift's influence on and positioning. Concurrently, continental records show vegetation transitions from gymnosperm-dominated arid-adapted assemblages to angiosperm-rich humid forests, as preserved in Eocene and deposits across peninsular . Paleoclimate proxies further delineate epochal contrasts: Eocene conditions (56-33.9 million years ago) were characterized by elevated temperatures (global averages 5-8°C warmer than present) and high , evidenced by spectra dominated by tropical taxa and carbon isotope signatures indicating dense forest cover with minimal aridity. In contrast, phases (23-5.3 million years ago) exhibit proxy-indicated drying trends, with records from Siwalik sediments revealing a shift toward and elements, likely driven by progressive Himalayan exhumation amplifying rain shadows and that reduced overall moisture influx despite maturing dynamics. These changes underscore the causal role of orogenic uplift in modulating India's early climate regimes, independent of later orbital or anthropogenic forcings.

Quaternary Variations and Monsoon Evolution

The Quaternary Period, encompassing the last 2.6 million years, featured pronounced climatic oscillations in India driven primarily by , which altered seasonal insolation contrasts and thereby modulated the strength of the Indian Summer (ISM). Glacial maxima generally corresponded to weakened ISM circulation, reduced , and expanded arid landscapes, as lower summer insolation suppressed the land-sea thermal gradient essential for monsoon dynamics. phases, conversely, exhibited intensified monsoons with higher rainfall, fostering denser vegetation and fuller lakes, as evidenced by multi-proxy reconstructions from marine sediments, terrestrial , and isotopic analyses. These variations were further influenced by global volume changes and atmospheric CO₂ levels, with proxy data indicating a causal link between and monsoon on timescales of 20,000–100,000 years. During the (LGM), approximately 21,000–18,000 years ago, the reached a of intensity, resulting in widespread across peninsular and northern . Lake levels in regions like the and plummeted, with cores revealing aeolian sands, evaporites, and pollen assemblages indicative of sparse, drought-tolerant xerophytic vegetation rather than monsoon-dependent forests. Sea surface temperatures in the and were roughly 3°C cooler than present, accompanied by δ¹⁸O depletions of about 0.6‰, signaling diminished vapor transport from ocean sources to the subcontinent. Brackish phases in coastal lakes, such as those inferred from geochemistry in eastern , reflect episodic marine incursions amid low freshwater inflow, underscoring the monsoon's collapse under reduced insolation and expanded polar ice caps. These conditions likely constrained human populations to refugia, with archaeological evidence suggesting limited migration corridors until post-LGM amelioration. The deglaciation phase from ~18,000 to 11,700 years ago marked a progressive ISM revival, accelerating into the early (11,700–8,000 years ago) with surging in response to rising insolation from precessional forcing. δ¹⁸O records from caves in southern and northeastern display enriched values during this interval, denoting increased moisture recycling and intensified over the subcontinent. Lake proxies, including assemblages and organic carbon content, corroborate expanded lacustrine systems and fluvial activity, transitioning landscapes from steppe-like to and mosaics. This wet phase, peaking in the Climatic Optimum (~9,000–5,000 years ago), facilitated early agricultural dispersals and settlements, as stronger supported reliable rainfall for millet and rice cultivation in river valleys. Orbital maxima at this time shifted the northward, enhancing ISM duration and volume by up to 20–30% relative to LGM baselines, per model-proxy syntheses. Mid-Holocene monsoon dynamics shifted toward weakening after ~5,000 years ago, culminating in around 4,200 (BP), as declining insolation reduced the thermal contrast driving ISM flow. Proxy indicators, including lowered lake levels in and , diminished growth rates, and shifts to drought-resistant taxa, document a ~10–20% precipitation drop, with regional droughts persisting for centuries. This 4.2 ka event, a global aridity pulse tied to solar minima and high-latitude cooling, stressed rain-fed agroecosystems in northwest , correlating with the abandonment of major Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) urban centers like and between 4,200 and 3,900 years BP. While socio-economic factors contributed, paleoclimatic data emphasize hydroclimatic stress—evidenced by silted rivers and reduced fluvial discharge—as a primary driver, prompting population migrations eastward to monsoon-resilient plains. Late Holocene ISM variability continued at millennial scales, modulated by internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, but without reverting to early Holocene intensities.

Climatic Zones and Regional Variations

Tropical Monsoon Climates

The tropical climates of India, corresponding to Köppen classifications Aw (tropical ) and Am (tropical ), prevail across much of the peninsular region, encompassing the and extending into portions of the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains where seasonal rainfall patterns dominate. These climates feature consistently warm conditions, with monthly mean temperatures above 18°C year-round, and a distinct dry season interrupted by intense monsoon precipitation. The Am subtype occurs primarily along humid coastal margins, while Aw characterizes interior plateaus with more pronounced dry periods. Annual in these zones typically ranges from 800 to 2000 mm, with 75-90% concentrated during the June-September Indian Summer (ISM), driven by low-pressure troughs over the land drawing moist air from the oceans. Temperatures peak at 35-40°C in the pre-monsoon hot season (April-May), fostering high rates that deplete rapidly once rains cease. The Am regions exhibit less variability in wetness compared to Aw, supporting denser vegetation but still facing seasonal deficits. The branch of the exerts a stronger influence on eastern extensions of these climates, channeling moisture-laden winds across the warm sea surface, which enhances convective activity and sustains elevated relative often exceeding 80% during the wet phase. This branch contributes disproportionately to rainfall in eastern , where orographic uplift along coastal plains amplifies downpours, contrasting with the branch's role in western peninsular areas. Uniform high in these eastern zones mitigates some thermal discomfort but promotes fungal diseases in crops. During dry months (October-May), potential evapotranspiration consistently surpasses , leading to negative balances and heightened risk, particularly in rainfed Aw interiors of the Deccan. This imbalance necessitates supplemental for water-intensive cultivation, which thrives on inundation but suffers yield reductions from prolonged dry spells or erratic onset, as empirical lysimeter data indicate water stress when deficits accumulate beyond 100-200 mm. depletion exacerbates vulnerabilities, with studies showing increased demands during deficient to offset evaporative losses.

Arid and Semi-Arid Regions

India's arid and semi-arid regions, classified under Köppen BWh (hot desert) and BSh (hot semi-arid) climates, predominantly occupy the northwest, including the spanning , , , and , as well as extensions into the western . These areas receive less than 500 mm of annual on average, with the core zones averaging under 250 mm, primarily due to orographic barriers and atmospheric . High rates, often exceeding 2,000 mm annually, amplify aridity, as potential evapotranspiration far outpaces scant rainfall inputs. In Rajasthan's Thar Desert, rainfall is erratic and concentrated in brief bursts from July to September, totaling 100-300 mm yearly, supplemented by sporadic winter precipitation from western disturbances originating over the Mediterranean. Summer temperatures routinely surpass 45°C, peaking at 50°C in May and June, while winter nights drop to near 0°C or below, yielding diurnal ranges over 20°C due to clear skies and low . Dust storms, known as "loo" winds, prevail in pre-monsoon months, reducing and exacerbating , with frequencies up to 20-30 events per season in western . Semi-arid extensions, such as in Gujarat's Kutch region and parts of the Deccan, record 400-600 mm annual rain, still insufficient to counter high , leading to thorny scrub and reliance on . and unsustainable have accelerated , with observations from 2005-2015 indicating a 1.1% annual expansion of degraded lands in these zones. The Aravalli Hills create a effect, blocking easterly moisture-laden winds from the , while within the subtropical high-pressure belt inhibits convective uplift, perpetuating . These factors, compounded by the region's inland position distant from oceanic sources, sustain the persistent dry conditions.

Humid Subtropical Areas

The , classified under Köppen as Cwa (monsoon-influenced with dry winters) and Cfa (without pronounced dry season), characterizes much of the and northeastern lowlands of , including and the fringes of the [Ganges Delta](/page/Ganges Delta). These areas experience hot summers with mean temperatures often exceeding 35°C in May and , followed by cold winters where minimum temperatures frequently fall to 5–10°C, particularly in the northern extents like and . Annual ranges from 1,000 mm in the western Gangetic Plain to 3,000 mm or more in Assam's , with 80–90% concentrated during the –September southwest , supporting intensive rice cultivation and tea plantations that rely on the persistent humidity. Winter conditions from December to February are marked by frequent radiation fog and temperature inversions, driven by clear skies, calm winds, and over the flat , leading to dense episodes averaging 3 days per site in northern and severely impairing for transportation. These inversions trap moisture and pollutants near the surface, exacerbating persistence, with dew points often approaching air temperatures to sustain the . The region's moderates extremes compared to tropical zones southward, allowing occasional in exposed areas, though absolute minima rarely dip below 0°C. A distinct east-west precipitation gradient underscores the transition from relative aridity in the west to higher moisture eastward, with annual totals increasing by 500–1,000 mm across the Gangetic Plain due to enhanced from the and Purvanchal Hills, which force ascending moist air from depressions. This orographic enhancement, combined with frequent cyclonic disturbances originating in the Bay—averaging 4–6 per season—affects Assam and the delta more intensely, yielding reliable but flood-prone rains that sustain deltaic ecosystems yet heighten vulnerability to depressions like those in October–November. In contrast, western sectors experience drier winters with sporadic western disturbances providing 100–200 mm of rain or snowmelt influence, delineating the subtropical boundary from adjacent semi-arid zones.

Highland and Mountain Climates

Highland and mountain climates in India, classified under Köppen Dfb (humid continental) and ET (tundra) schemes, prevail in the and to a lesser extent in the , characterized by pronounced where temperature decreases at an average of approximately 6.5°C per 1,000 meters elevation. In subtropical valleys of the outer , summer temperatures range from 20–30°C, transitioning to temperate conditions around 2,000–3,000 meters with cooler summers below 15°C, and above 4,000 meters featuring perpetual snow cover and sub-zero temperatures year-round. exhibits sharp gradients due to orographic uplift, with southern windward slopes receiving enhanced rainfall—averaging 1,530 mm annually at mid-elevations like —while leeward northern slopes experience arid conditions as low as one-sixth of windward totals in regions like the greater of the Satluj basin. In the , particularly the Meghalaya Plateau's region, orographic effects amplify precipitation to extremes, with historical annual records exceeding 26,000 mm in 1861 and averages around 11,430 mm, driven by moist southwest winds forced upward over steep terrain, fostering microclimates of dense cloud forests and high biodiversity. Contrasting rain-shadow valleys, such as parts of , remain hyper-arid with annual precipitation below 100 mm, highlighting topographic control over moisture distribution. The , though lower in maximum elevation (up to 2,700 meters), similarly feature orographic enhancement on their western escarpments, yielding 2,000–3,000 mm annual rainfall in higher reaches, supporting montane forests, though less extreme than Himalayan gradients. Glacial retreat in the , ongoing since the end of the around 1850, reflects natural post-glacial recovery cycles superimposed on recent warming, with benchmark eastern glaciers like Zemu retreating at 15–20 meters per year in recent decades, compared to broader historical losses over the past 200 years documented in tree-ring and geomorphic records. This variability underscores diversity, where southern slopes sustain wetter, slower-retreating glaciers versus drier northern ones, influencing downstream without uniform acceleration attributable solely to anthropogenic factors.

Seasonal Dynamics

Winter Season

The winter season in India extends from December to February, dominated by northeast originating from a high-pressure system over the Asian landmass, which generally deliver dry conditions across much of the country. These winds, aligned with the winter phase, pick up moisture from the , resulting in precipitation primarily along the southeastern coastal regions, while the interior experiences clear skies and minimal fall. Western disturbances—extratropical cyclones traversing from the —introduce variability, particularly in the northwest, by bringing episodic and snowfall to the plains and hills, respectively. Average temperatures during this period range from 10–20°C in northern , with plains often seeing daytime highs around 15–18°C and nighttime lows dropping to 5–10°C, exacerbated by cold waves originating from high-pressure ridges over . In southern , conditions remain milder at 20–25°C on average, reflecting the moderating influence of proximity to the and oceanic air masses. Himalayan regions experience sub-zero temperatures at higher elevations, with snowfall accumulating due to western disturbances, which typically number 5–6 per season and contribute significantly to winter in the northwest. totals are low nationwide, averaging 20–50 mm per month, except in the southeast where remnants of the northeast yield 100–200 mm in , supporting agriculture in and . Western disturbances play a crucial role in modulating winter climate, delivering 20–100 mm of rain to Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, essential for rabi crop irrigation like wheat, while fostering snowfall in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh that replenishes glacial reserves. In the Indo-Gangetic Plain, the southward position of the subtropical jet stream promotes stable atmospheric conditions, conducive to temperature inversions and dense fog formation, intensified by wintertime irrigation practices that increase near-surface humidity. This fog, persisting for days and reducing visibility to under 50 meters, disrupts transportation networks and delays agricultural activities such as harvesting and sowing, with economic losses estimated in billions of rupees annually from associated disruptions. Cold incursions, linked to strengthened Siberian highs, occasionally plunge northern temperatures below 5°C, heightening frost risks for crops.

Hot Season

The hot season, spanning to May, marks the pre-monsoon period in , during which temperatures escalate sharply across the Indo-Gangetic plains and peninsular interior due to prolonged solar insolation and minimal cloud cover. Maximum temperatures in the northern plains commonly surpass 40°C by late in heat-prone areas like and , escalating to 45°C or higher in May, with heatwaves defined by the as conditions exceeding 40°C alongside deviations of at least 4.5°C above seasonal norms. Regional hotspots include the fringes and , where clear skies and low amplify surface heating through reduced flux. Dryness prevails with relative humidity often below 30% until late May, intensifying thermal discomfort; this is compounded by the loo, gusty hot winds originating from the arid northwest that sweep across the , carrying dust and reaching speeds of 20-30 km/h during afternoons. These winds, driven by daytime pressure gradients between heated interiors and cooler coastal zones, desiccate vegetation and elevate risks of heatstroke and crop wilting in states like and . Precipitation totals remain subdued at 20-50 mm monthly on average over much of the plains, arising chiefly from isolated convective showers triggered by diurnal instability rather than organized systems. In eastern India, particularly and , nor'westers—fierce thunderstorms known locally as kalbaishakhi—emerge in April-May, propelled by moisture influx from the interacting with heated land surfaces, delivering intense but brief downpours of 50-100 mm alongside and gusts up to 100 km/h. These events, occurring 10-20 times per season in prone areas, mitigate heat temporarily but contribute to erratic early sowing disruptions. The persistence of heat stems from causal dynamics wherein rapid land surface warming generates low-level convergence, yet upper-tropospheric from a semi-permanent anticyclone suppresses vertical motion and development, deferring widespread until oceanic influences strengthen in June. This , reinforced by clear-sky radiation, sustains adiabatic warming aloft, while antecedent dry soils from winter limit evaporative cooling, creating a feedback that prolongs . By May's end, rising from southerly sea breezes erodes this stability, fostering pre-monsoonal squalls that signal the southwest monsoon's approach.

Southwest Monsoon Season

The Southwest , spanning June to September, constitutes the primary rainy season across , delivering 75% of the nation's annual precipitation through southeasterly winds that reverse direction due to seasonal heating. This phenomenon arises from a pronounced land-sea contrast, wherein intense solar heating over the and northern generates a low-pressure trough, drawing moist air masses from the warm toward the subcontinent as the migrates northward. Upon nearing the Indian landmass, the monsoon flow bifurcates into the branch, which parallels the west coast and ascends the , and the branch, which curves westward across the eastern seaboard and penetrates the Gangetic plains. The branch typically arrives first, fostering heavy downpours along the southwestern littoral, while the branch contributes to widespread rainfall in the northeast and central regions, often intensified by cyclonic disturbances forming over the bay. Onset over occurs around June 1, with the front advancing northward at approximately 1° latitude per day, enveloping the entire country by early to mid-July. during this period manifests in convective bursts, yielding 600–1,500 mm across much of the peninsula and plains, though amounts escalate to over 3,000 mm in orographically favored zones like the windward . Interannual variability stems from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where warm-phase El Niño events suppress monsoon vigor by altering patterns, and the (IOD), wherein positive phases—characterized by cooler eastern waters—bolster rainfall through enhanced cross-equatorial flow. The 2024 season exemplified this, registering 108% of the long-period average (approximately 962 mm nationally), aided by a positive IOD amid neutral ENSO conditions. Orographic lifting profoundly modulates rainfall distribution, as moist monsoon currents forced upward over the and Himalayan foothills undergo rapid cooling and condensation, yielding localized maxima exceeding regional averages by factors of 2–3. In the Ghats, this effect peaks on southwest-facing slopes, while in the western Himalayas, it sustains into later months via barrier-jet dynamics.

Retreating Monsoon Transition

The retreating transition occurs from to , marking the withdrawal of the southwest from northwest India toward the southeast, with the (IMD) defining cessation as five continuous days of low rainfall activity accompanied by the establishment of an anticyclone in the lower at 850 hPa and below. This phase sees the (ITCZ) shift southward, leading to clear skies and reduced humidity over northern and as high-pressure systems dominate, while the northeast activates over peninsular India, particularly , driven by easterly trades from the . Temperatures moderate during this period, with daytime highs averaging 25–30°C across much of the plains as continental air masses cool following the summer peak, though initial withdrawal can cause brief spikes of 3–5°C before stabilization. In southern regions, the northeast monsoon delivers 100–150 mm of monthly rainfall on average to interior and adjacent areas like , contributing 30–60% of the region's annual and often intensifying via low-pressure systems. Northern India experiences deficits, with totals below 50 mm, fostering drier conditions that enable agricultural residue burning and early frost risks in higher elevations. Fog and haze accumulate prominently in the during October–November, exacerbated by stagnant air under high pressure, crop residue fires in northwest India peaking at thousands of detections monthly, and industrial emissions, reducing visibility and amplifying particulate matter concentrations. These conditions form dense layers, particularly over Delhi-NCR, where post-monsoon smoke from agricultural burning accounts for a primary fraction of organic aerosols. Cyclone formation risks escalate in the during this transition, with low-pressure areas frequently developing into depressions or storms, as aligns with the post-monsoon peak for genesis in the north basin, where the Bay accounts for over 70% of such events annually. Historical data indicate 3–4 low-pressure areas forming monthly in , often intensifying due to warm sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C and low , posing threats of heavy rain and storm surges to eastern coasts.

Meteorological Statistics

Temperature Patterns

India's national annual mean land surface air temperature averages approximately 24.5–25°C based on long-term records from 1901 onward, with recent decades showing values around 27°C in some analyses due to baseline shifts and localized influences. In 2024, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a national mean of 25.75°C, marking the warmest year since 1901 and 0.65°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, reflecting episodic spikes rather than a uniform trend. Spatial patterns reveal a pronounced north-south gradient, with northern Indo-Gangetic plains experiencing annual means of 24–25°C alongside greater seasonal amplitude—summer highs averaging 39–40°C in Delhi during May—while southern peninsular regions maintain milder profiles around 26–28°C year-round, moderated by oceanic proximity. Himalayan and highland zones, such as trans-Himalayan areas, contrast sharply with annual means below 20°C, descending to sub-zero winter averages in stations like Dras. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) vary regionally, typically spanning 10–15°C across the continental plains due to intense solar heating and radiative cooling under clear skies, but narrowing to 5–8°C along coastal belts where sea breezes dampen extremes. Recent studies indicate declining DTR trends in northern and Gangetic regions, driven by rising minimum temperatures amid asymmetric warming, with decreases up to 3°C over three decades in agro-climatic zones. Urban heat island (UHI) effects amplify these patterns in metropolitan areas, generating 2–10°C warmer nocturnal temperatures in cities like Delhi and Ahmedabad compared to rural surrounds, particularly pronounced in northwest India. Observed temperature trends exhibit localization, with contributing 0.2°C per to urban warming—accounting for about 38% of total increases in Indian metros—attributable to land-use changes like impervious surfaces and reduced rather than a pervasive atmospheric signal. Rural and highland stations show muted or heterogeneous rises, underscoring causal roles of anthropogenic surface modifications over uniform global forcing in shaping contemporary patterns.

Precipitation Regimes

India's national average annual precipitation stands at approximately 1,170 mm, with about 80% occurring during the southwest monsoon period from June to September. This temporal concentration arises from the seasonal reversal of winds, delivering moisture-laden air from the Indian Ocean, while the remaining months feature sparse rainfall, often limited to winter cyclonic disturbances in the north and retreating monsoon showers in the southeast. Spatially, precipitation exhibits stark gradients driven by topography and distance from moisture sources, as recorded by networks and corroborated by satellite observations from the (IMD). Orographic enhancement produces maxima in windward slopes, such as in , which averages 11,873 mm annually due to uplift over the . In contrast, and arid zones in northwest , including parts of , receive less than 100 mm per year, with averaging around 100-200 mm but interior deserts even lower. Within the monsoon regime, dry spells—periods of 5-10 days or longer without significant —interrupt the progression, particularly affecting rain-fed in central and northwest regions where variability is highest, evidenced by coefficients of variation exceeding 30% in compared to under 20% in the northeast. In 2025, the southwest displayed irregular patterns, including prolonged dry spells in early July followed by heavy bursts, culminating in an early onset of withdrawal starting September 15—the earliest in a decade—despite an overall 8% surplus rainfall.

Interannual Variability

The interannual variability of India's climate, particularly the Indian summer rainfall (ISMR), is predominantly modulated by large-scale ocean-atmosphere oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the (IOD). ENSO exhibits a negative with ISMR, whereby El Niño events (warm phase) typically suppress rainfall through altered and reduced moisture convergence over the , leading to deficits of 10-20% in severe cases, while La Niña events (cool phase) enhance it via strengthened easterly trades and increased convection. This relationship, with coefficients around -0.4 to -0.6 over the , has strengthened in recent decades, potentially due to amplified Pacific warming patterns. The IOD, characterized by anomalous gradients across the , exerts a positive influence on ISMR during its positive phase, promoting stronger flows and rainfall excesses through enhanced cross-equatorial heat transport and zonal wind anomalies. Positive IOD events can independently boost central Indian rainfall by 5-15% and mitigate ENSO-induced deficits, as seen in co-occurring episodes where the net effect favors wetter conditions. Synergistic ENSO-IOD interactions explain much of the year-to-year variance, with combined indices improving predictive skill over individual modes. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), while primarily driving intraseasonal fluctuations, contributes to interannual variability through shifts in its propagation and amplitude, influencing monsoon onset timing and active-break cycles. Stronger MJO activity over the during certain years correlates with enhanced convective bursts and overall seasonal totals, with interannual changes linked to background state variations like ENSO. Solar cycles show limited and inconsistent influence on ISMR variability, with proxy reconstructions indicating minor modulations (e.g., ~1-2% rainfall variance) via stratospheric pathways or UV forcing, overshadowed by oceanic drivers in instrumental records. Empirical discrepancies highlight limitations in deterministic predictions; for instance, the 2024 southwest recorded 108% of long-period average rainfall despite transitioning from a 2023-2024 El Niño to neutral conditions, underscoring the role of concurrent neutral-to-positive IOD and regional factors in overriding residual ENSO damping.

Extreme Events and Natural Disasters

Floods, Landslides, and Cyclones

India's flood-prone regions, particularly the Indo-Gangetic plains and , experience recurrent inundation from overflows, exacerbated by the flat topography, silt-laden rivers, and upstream Himalayan runoff. In 2024, the flooded , resulting in over 200 animal deaths due to drowning and habitat loss. Heavy rains in that year displaced millions and caused widespread damage to and in low-lying areas. Torrential downpours from Himalayan sources in October 2024 triggered floods along the and Brahmaputra systems, killing at least 20 people across and through drowning and related incidents. In June 2025, relentless rains in led to at least 30 deaths from flooding in states like and , highlighting the seasonal concentration of these events between June and September. Landslides in the Himalayan foothills and slopes are primarily triggered by intense destabilizing loose glacial till, steep gradients, and fractured , with human factors like for and amplifying vulnerability. disrupts by removing root reinforcement and altering drainage, while unplanned road construction and hydroelectric projects weaken subsoil through blasting and excavation. In August 2025, a in Uttarakhand's Dharali region, possibly initiated by glacial material failure, buried villages and highlighted these geomorphic risks. Multiple landslides in West Bengal's and districts in October 2025, spurred by heavy rain, blocked highways and isolated communities, underscoring the ' susceptibility. Tropical cyclones, forming predominantly in the (10-12 annually on average), arise from warm sea surface temperatures and low , drawing moisture that intensifies rainfall upon landfall along eastern coasts. The 2024 North Indian Ocean season featured 12 cyclonic disturbances, exceeding the long-term average of 11.2, with several impacting and through storm surges and winds exceeding 100 km/h. The has seen a doubling in frequency since the , alongside longer durations and higher intensities, attributed to warming waters and shifting atmospheric patterns. These hazards contributed to extreme weather events occurring on 322 of 366 days in 2024, or 88% of the year, often overlapping , landslides, and cyclones in vulnerable regions. Policy shortcomings, including inadequate dam maintenance for attenuation and gaps in real-time early warning dissemination, have compounded impacts; for instance, failures in integrated alert systems delayed evacuations during Himalayan flash events. Large dams like Nagarjuna Sagar have mitigated some downstream , but silting and over-reliance on storage without ecosystem restoration limit efficacy.

Droughts and Heatwaves

Droughts in India occur when rainfall falls short of long-term normals, with the classifying meteorological drought as a deficiency of 26% or more in an area's rainfall. Agricultural droughts, driven by deficits where exceeds , have repeatedly affected regions like in , where between 2012 and 2019, rainfall during drought years averaged 50-70% of normal, leading to crop failures and . In , high variability of 24-57% contributes to a 20-30% probability of years, exacerbated by reliance on rain-fed covering much of the region. Heatwaves, defined by the IMD as maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding 40°C in the plains of northwest or 30°C in the Deccan Peninsula with a departure of at least 4.5°C from normal, often coincide with dry conditions that reduce evaporative cooling. In 2024, recorded its most intense heatwave season, with 37 cities surpassing 45°C between March and June, hitting 50.5°C, and over 700 heat-related deaths reported, far exceeding official tallies due to undercounting in data. Northern endured prolonged episodes, including Delhi's 40 consecutive days above 40°C, amplifying risks in urban areas where heat islands from and reduced elevate local temperatures by several degrees. Early 2025 heatwaves struck unusually soon, with the first official declaration on February 25 in and —marking the earliest winter-season heatwave on record—linked to rain-deficient winters and reduced Himalayan snow cover, which diminished cooling moisture availability into spring. These events compound effects, as low from prior dry spells intensifies surface heating, while urbanization in cities like and Hyderabad traps heat through impervious surfaces and lowered . In August 2025, despite early rains, 19% of faced severe dryness, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities in arid-prone northwest and central regions.

Cold Waves and Frost Events

Cold waves in primarily affect the northern plains during the winter months of to , characterized by prolonged periods of abnormally low temperatures driven by cold air . According to the (IMD), a is declared in the plains when the minimum temperature falls to 10°C or below and deviates by at least 4.5°C from the seasonal normal, or reaches 4°C or lower regardless of departure; severe cold waves occur at or below 2°C in the plains. These events are exacerbated by clear skies leading to and the influx of continental polar air masses. Frost events, involving ground temperatures at or below 0°C, are rarer in the subtropical plains but occur sporadically, with sub-zero air temperatures exceptionally infrequent outside the . The primary meteorological drivers are western disturbances—extratropical cyclones originating over the Mediterranean or —that interact with the subtropical westerly , facilitating southward dips that advect cold or Siberian air into northern via northwesterly winds. These systems often bring associated as in the plains or in higher elevations, intensifying cold spells through increased cloudiness followed by post-frontal clear skies. Polar outbreaks, enabled by undulations, amplify the severity, as weakened stratospheric conditions can enhance cold air incursions. In the Indo-Gangetic plains, such episodes typically last 2–5 days, with northern stations like , , and recording the most intense impacts. Notable recent events include the January 2023 , when Delhi's minimum temperature dropped to 1.4°C amid dense and northwesterly winds, marking one of the season's lowest readings and affecting over 20 northern . Sub-zero temperatures in the plains remain exceptional; for instance, while frost damages occur without air freezing, rare instances like -0.7°C in parts of during intensified outbreaks highlight vulnerability. Historical data from IMD stations indicate cold waves cluster around 3–4 events per season in core areas, though empirical records show no sustained increase in frequency. Agriculturally, cold waves and pose risks to rabi crops, particularly in the breadbasket regions of , , and , where sudden freezes can cause tiller damage or reduced grain filling if occurring during vegetative stages. Mild cold snaps may benefit , but prolonged exposure below 5°C, combined with , has led to yield losses of 5–10% in affected fields, as seen in Bihar's 2023–2024 spells impacting and pulses alongside . measures, including timely sowing, mulching, and to mitigate frost heave, have stabilized losses despite variability. Long-term IMD analyses reveal a decreasing trend in frequency and spatial extent over 1971–2020, with fewer severe days per season, attributed to shifting dynamics rather than uniform warming.

Recorded Climate Extremes

Temperature Extremes

The highest temperature officially recorded by the (IMD) is 51.0 °C, measured at in on 19 May 2016. This arid rural station, situated in the , minimizes urban heat island influences, enhancing measurement reliability for natural convective and radiational heating under clear skies post-monsoon withdrawal. In 2024, northern experienced intense pre-monsoon heat, with verified peaks exceeding 49 °C across and neighboring states; Churu in reached 50.5 °C on 28 May, approaching but not surpassing the national record. Such events reflect dominant seasonal forcings, including high solar insolation at low latitudes and from subtropical high-pressure systems, amplified by dry soil feedback but primarily driven by geophysical positioning rather than localized anomalies. Urban stations, by contrast, often register 1–3 °C higher maxima than nearby rural ones due to anthropogenic heat retention, underscoring the value of remote site data for baseline extremes. The IMD's verified lowest temperature is -45 °C, recorded at Dras in Jammu and Kashmir (now ) on 28 December 1910. This high-altitude site (over 3,000 m elevation) exemplifies nocturnal radiational cooling under winter anticyclonic conditions, where thin atmosphere and snow cover facilitate rapid heat loss. Anecdotal claims of -60 °C in during January 1995, cited in local records and signage, lack IMD verification and may stem from uncalibrated sensors or microsite effects, highlighting challenges in extreme cold validation at remote outposts. Similarly, reports of -45 °C at Hanle in remain disputed due to sparse instrumentation history and potential inversion layer influences, with official IMD plains minima around -2 °C to 0 °C in and during cold waves. These lows underscore terrain-driven forcings, including orographic descent and continental , over instrumental artifacts.
Record TypeTemperatureLocationDateNotes
Highest51.0 °CPhalodi, Rajasthan19 May 2016Rural desert station; IMD verified.
Lowest-45 °C, 28 Dec 1910High-elevation; official IMD extreme.

Precipitation and Wind Extremes

India's record for the highest 24-hour stands at 1,563 mm, measured at in on 16 June 1995, verified through (IMD) gauge data from the site and corroborated by regional stations to rule out localized anomalies. Other verified extremes include 1,168 mm at in on 6 May 2004 and 1,007 mm at , also in , on 17 June 2022, with multi-station cross-checks confirming the events via radar and pluviograph records. In August 2025, in Jammu and Kashmir recorded 629.4 mm over 24 hours ending 27 August, the district's highest on record, supported by IMD observations from nearby (296 mm) and regional telemetry to validate the burst. Tropical cyclones produce India's most intense wind extremes, with the 1999 Odisha super cyclone registering sustained speeds of 260 km/h at landfall near Paradip on 29 , estimated from IMD surface observations, aircraft reconnaissance equivalents, and pressure-wind relationships, exceeding thresholds for Category 4 equivalence. Gusts in such systems have approached 300 km/h in core eyewall regions, though verified maxima rely on averaged 10-minute sustained readings adjusted for exposure. Pre-monsoon dust storms, driven by western disturbances, have produced gusts up to 126 km/h, as in the May 2018 event over , confirmed by data from multiple northern stations amid visibility drops below 100 meters. These non-convective bursts, distinct from convective squalls, are substantiated by IMD wind logs avoiding single-site overestimation through network validation.

Snow and Hail Phenomena

Snow accumulation in India occurs predominantly in the Himalayan ranges, where winter snowfall averages over 10 meters in extreme high-altitude sites such as the . These depths result from persistent blizzards and sub-zero temperatures persisting year-round above 4,900 meters elevation. Recent observations indicate variability in snow cover, with the 2024-2025 winter featuring elevated snow lines in the region, reaching approximately 6,100 meters by late January 2025, reducing accumulation at mid-altitudes. Snow persistence across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region fell 23.6% below normal levels in 2025, highlighting interannual fluctuations influenced by atmospheric patterns rather than consistent melting across all elevations. Empirical analyses reveal that snow cover declines are more evident at lower elevations (below 5,000 meters), while higher altitudes exhibit relative stability in extent and persistence from 2004 to 2024. Hail phenomena in India manifest as severe convective events, primarily affecting the northern and central plains during the pre-monsoon season from to , driven by high and moisture-laden air masses. These storms produce stones with diameters up to 10 centimeters, capable of inflicting substantial damage to standing crops such as and , with historical events documenting widespread agricultural losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of hectares. The frequency and intensity of such hailstorms correlate with indices of and low vertical , fostering rapid updrafts necessary for hail formation over tropical plains.

Climate Change: Observations and Debates

The all-India annual mean land surface air temperature, as recorded by the (IMD) since 1901, has increased by approximately 0.7°C, with the rate of warming accelerating notably after the 1970s. This decadal pattern shows relatively stable temperatures through the mid-20th century, followed by sharper rises in the 1990s and 2000s, culminating in 2024 as the warmest year on record at an annual mean of 25.75°C—0.65°C above the 1991–2020 baseline and 1.2°C above the 1901–1910 decadal average. Minimum temperatures exhibited even stronger anomalies in recent decades, with 2024's average minimum 0.90°C above normal, contributing disproportionately to the overall mean. Regional variations persist, with northern and peninsular experiencing more pronounced decadal increases than the northeast. All-India summer rainfall (June–September), comprising roughly 75% of annual totals, displays no statistically significant long-term linear trend from 1901 to 2020, characterized instead by interdecadal oscillations with alternating wet and dry epochs spanning 3–4 decades each. Departures from the long-period mean have fluctuated between deficits exceeding -10% (e.g., multiple drought years in the ) and surpluses above +10%, without a persistent directional shift at the national scale. Regionally, however, trends diverge: central and western zones, including the core area, show slight declines or drying, while northeastern states and parts of the northwest exhibit wetting patterns with increased extremes post-1980. These records are not without methodological challenges. Temperature datasets suffer from inhomogeneities due to station relocations, instrumentation changes, and progressive , which amplify readings via the (UHI) effect—urban sites consistently register 1–5°C higher nighttime minima than proximate rural ones, potentially overstating national trends. Rural-only subsets reveal subdued warming rates, often half those of composite records, underscoring the need for adjusted, homogeneous series to isolate climatic signals from local biases. Precipitation gauges face undercatch issues in high winds and sparse coverage in remote areas, though gridded reconstructions mitigate some variability.

Attribution to Natural vs. Anthropogenic Factors

Observational data from paleoclimate proxies, including lake sediments and records across , reveal multiple warm and humid episodes during the epoch, such as enhanced intensity and elevated temperatures in the Gangetic plains around 6,000–4,000 years , occurring without industrial-era . These periods, driven by and solar variability, demonstrate natural climate oscillations capable of producing conditions akin to or exceeding 20th-century warming levels in the region. In the instrumental record since the late , India's land surface temperatures have increased at approximately 0.5 times the global average rate, a termed the "India warming hole," with some studies reporting nonsignificant trends in certain subregions amid model projections of stronger rises. Anthropogenic aerosols from biomass burning, industrial soot, and expanded have exerted a cooling effect, partially offsetting forcing and contributing to this muted warming signal. (CMIP) simulations often exhibit biases in replicating these regional dynamics, including overestimations of aerosol masking and underrepresentation of local land-use changes, leading to discrepancies between hindcasts and observations. Solar cycles have modulated Indian summer monsoon rainfall over multi-decadal scales, with sunspot minima correlating to enhanced and vice versa, as evidenced by 22-year periodicities in rainfall data spanning centuries. Volcanic eruptions, particularly tropical ones, have triggered short-term cooling and exacerbation through , altering instability and El Niño responses. Given India's historically low cumulative anthropogenic emissions—comprising less than 5% of global totals prior to 1990—debates persist on the proportionate role of human forcings versus persistent natural variability and influences, with empirical proxies underscoring the latter's capacity to dominate regional signals absent modern pollution.

Projections, Model Uncertainties, and Empirical Discrepancies

Climate models from the Phase 6 (CMIP6), as assessed in IPCC AR6, project a surface air increase over of approximately 2–4°C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels under medium-to-high emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5), with regional variations influenced by dynamics and land-use changes. These projections encompass a wide ensemble spread, reflecting scenario uncertainties and internal variability, but they assume continued anthropogenic forcing without specifying offsets from unmodeled processes. Earlier generations of models, including some CMIP5 simulations, anticipated a weakening of the circulation under warming, driven by enhanced land-sea thermal contrasts and stabilization of the ; however, empirical records from 1950–2020 show no such weakening and instead indicate robust increases in monsoon rainfall and variability in many CMIP6 ensembles, highlighting predictive overestimation in prior frameworks. Systematic dry biases persist in contemporary models, with underprediction of rainfall by up to 15% over northern regions, partly due to excessive equatorial light rain suppressing convective signals. Major uncertainties stem from unresolved cloud feedbacks, which contribute substantially to equilibrium climate sensitivity spreads across models, and inadequate horizontal resolution for India's complex , leading to misrepresented and regional rainfall biases. For instance, low-resolution simulations fail to capture topographic enhancement of flows, exacerbating errors in high-relief areas like the and . Recent unpredicted shifts, such as the abrupt early termination of summer in 2025—marked by anomalously cool May temperatures, thunderstorms, and premature following the prior year's heatwaves—underscore limitations in seasonal forecasting and decadal predictability. Empirically, satellite observations reveal widespread across human-dominated Indian ecosystems, with CO2 fertilization identified as the dominant driver via enhanced and water-use efficiency, offsetting modeled intensification by boosting at rates of ~10.5 TgC/year in recent decades. This effect, underrepresented in many dynamic global models due to incomplete parameterization of nutrient limitations and stomatal responses, suggests potential dampening of projected hydrological stresses, though long-term saturation remains debated. Such discrepancies imply that model ensembles may overestimate vulnerability in semi-arid regions by neglecting direct physiological benefits of elevated CO2.

Regional Impacts, Adaptation Strategies, and Policy Debates

In the Himalayan regions, observed warming has led to glacier retreat and altered precipitation patterns, reducing winter chill hours essential for crops like apples in , with local farmers reporting shifts in flowering times and yields as early as the 2000s. Coastal areas, particularly along the , experience intensified , as seen with Cyclone Vardah in 2016 causing significant infrastructure damage in , exacerbating erosion and salinity intrusion in deltaic farmlands. In semi-arid interiors like and parts of the , erratic monsoons have heightened drought risks for , which constitutes about 60% of cropped area, though mitigates some variability. Adaptation efforts emphasize agricultural resilience, building on the Green Revolution's legacy of expanded networks that now cover over 48% of net sown area, enabling cycles despite rainfall deficits. Farmers have adopted drought-resistant varieties, such as for and , with the releasing 109 climate-resilient seeds in 2024 to counter heat and water stress. In energy, achieved 50% non-fossil fuel installed capacity by mid-2025, ahead of its 2030 target, through rapid solar and additions totaling over 28 GW in 2024, supporting and reducing fossil dependency in pumping . These measures have extended growing seasons in northern plains, allowing additional harvests in some cases, though water depletion from over- poses long-term challenges. Policy frameworks, including Nationally Determined Contributions under the , prioritize balanced growth, with India committing to net-zero emissions by 2070 while maintaining coal for reliable power amid rising demand. emissions stood at 2.76 tonnes of CO2 equivalent in , about one-sixth of the global average, underscoring arguments for equitable burden-sharing given historical emissions from developed nations. Debates center on tensions between rapid decarbonization demands and developmental imperatives, with critics noting that remains vital for industrial expansion serving 1.4 billion , as abrupt phase-outs risk shortages without affordable alternatives or transfers from high-emitting Western economies. Empirical analyses indicate that vulnerabilities in stem more from inadequate and —exacerbating impacts from events like floods—than direct climatic shifts, with adaptations like early warning systems for cyclones proving effective in reducing fatalities despite intensity increases. persists regarding net-zero feasibility without economic disruption, as mainstream projections from bodies like the IPCC often overlook India's context-specific growth needs and underemphasize successful local adaptations over alarmist global narratives influenced by institutional biases toward emission-centric views.

Atmospheric Pollution Interactions

The primary sources of particulate matter (PM2.5) and other pollutants in India include industrial emissions (over 50% of PM2.5), vehicular exhaust (27%), crop residue burning (17%), and residential biomass combustion for cooking and heating (7%). Coal-fired power plants contribute significantly to sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and PM2.5, while transportation and industry dominate NOx emissions. Agricultural stubble burning in states like Punjab and Haryana, peaking in October-November post-monsoon, episodically elevates PM2.5 levels, with northwesterly winds transporting smoke to northern cities like Delhi, where it combines with local vehicle and biomass sources to drive Air Quality Index (AQI) peaks exceeding 400 during winter inversions. Ground-based monitoring by the (CPCB) and satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from indicate that PM2.5 concentrations rose across most of India from 2000 until approximately 2016, correlating with rapid GDP growth, industrialization, and agricultural expansion, before stabilizing or declining in southern regions partly due to meteorological factors like stronger winds. In contrast, SO2 levels have declined nationwide since 2010, attributed to technologies in power plants and stricter emission regulations, though enforcement varies. emissions from power and sectors continue to rise with energy demand, exacerbating formation, while incidents showed a 77% reduction in 2025 compared to prior years due to enforcement, yet baseline fire activity remains higher than in the early 2000s per MODIS satellite records. Seasonal dynamics amplify trends: winter temperature inversions trap pollutants in the , sustaining high PM2.5 (often >100 μg/m³ annually averaged), whereas the summer disperses aerosols through scavenging and ventilation, temporarily lowering concentrations. Despite localized improvements from regulations, overall burdens persist amid , with 2023 PM2.5-linked deaths exceeding 2 million, underscoring the dominance of anthropogenic sources over natural dispersion.

Influences on Local Climate and Weather

Atmospheric aerosols over , including sulfates, , and mineral dust, exert a net negative at the surface through of incoming solar radiation, contributing to with surface insolation reductions of 10-20% in heavily polluted regions like the . Absorbing aerosols such as heat the mid-troposphere, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing , which delays the onset of the summer by up to a week and reduces rainfall over by 10-20% according to modeling constrained by observations. These atmospheric brown clouds, prevalent during pre-monsoon months, alter rainfall patterns by enhancing land-sea contrasts initially but ultimately weakening circulation through upper-level heating. Black carbon deposition from anthropogenic sources, primarily burning and combustion in northern India, accelerates Himalayan melt by reducing surface ; empirical measurements indicate it accounts for 30-40% of ice loss in central Himalayan glaciers, with deposition rates elevated during dry seasons. This soot-induced darkening lowers snow reflectance, increasing absorption of and contributing to faster rates observed since the 2000s. Aerosol-induced cooling has masked 20-50% of potential surface warming from greenhouse gases over , as evidenced by satellite and ground-based data showing diminished trends in observed temperatures relative to model simulations without effects. Mineral dust from the fertilize the and by depositing iron and other nutrients, enhancing productivity and potentially increasing oceanic carbon uptake, though this effect is modulated by variability. Absorbing aerosols exacerbate heat extremes by amplifying near-surface temperatures during high-pressure events; correlations between aerosol and temperature maxima in northwest show enhancements of 1-2°C in heatwave intensity due to reduced boundary layer mixing and increased atmospheric stability. These feedbacks interact with local by intensifying haze episodes, which trap heat and elevate effective temperatures beyond dry-bulb readings alone.

Human Health Consequences and Mitigation Realities

Air pollution in India, primarily from particulate matter (PM2.5) and household sources, is associated with approximately 1.5 million excess deaths annually, according to estimates from long-term exposure studies exceeding low thresholds like 5 μg/m³.00248-1/fulltext) The Global Burden of Disease analysis attributes 1.67 million deaths in 2019 to combined ambient (0.98 million) and household air pollution (0.6 million), predominantly respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. These figures represent about 7.2% of total mortality linked to daily PM2.5 exposure, though attribution faces challenges from confounders such as widespread tobacco smoking, biomass cooking intertwined with poverty, and ambient pollution overlap, which epidemiological models may not fully disentangle.00114-1/fulltext) Poorer households, reliant on solid fuels, experience disproportionate respiratory burdens, exacerbating cycles of ill health and economic stagnation. Beyond direct mortality, reduces , with and aerosols linked to 10-20% yield losses in staple crops like and across major growing regions. Empirical assessments indicate alone causes 5-40% wheat yield reductions in high-pollution areas like the , compounding food insecurity for rural populations dependent on subsistence farming. These impacts stem from stomatal uptake impairing , with from industrial and vehicular precursors showing causal effects in field experiments, though interactions with and add variability. Mitigation under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), initiated in 2019 targeting 20-30% PM reductions by 2024 in 122 cities, has yielded mixed outcomes, with some PM10 declines but widespread failure to meet standards due to enforcement gaps and seasonal spikes. Fund utilization reached only about 50% of allocations by 2024, limiting infrastructure like monitoring stations, while stubble burning and vehicular emissions persist. Realities include trade-offs with energy access, as stringent caps on coal-dependent power could hinder electrification for 300 million without reliable supply, slowing GDP growth by 0.45% in net-zero scenarios. Policy debates emphasize prioritizing poverty alleviation—via affordable energy and market-based tools like cap-and-trade—over uniform caps that risk industrial relocation without proportional health gains, given India's developmental stage and pollution's roots in biomass reliance among the poor. Empirical evidence supports flexible mechanisms reducing emissions cost-effectively while sustaining growth, contrasting rigid regulations that overlook confounders like poverty-driven fuel choices.

References

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