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Natural selection
Natural selection
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A diagram demonstrating mutation and selection

Natural selection is the differential survival and reproduction of individuals due to differences in the relative fitness endowed on them by their own particular complement of observable characteristics. It is a key law or mechanism of evolution which changes the heritable traits characteristic of a population or species over generations. Charles Darwin popularised the term "natural selection", contrasting it with artificial selection, which is intentional, whereas natural selection is not.

For Darwin natural selection was a law or principle which resulted from three different kinds of process: inheritance, including the transmission of heritable material from parent to offspring and its development (ontogeny) in the offspring; variation, which partly resulted from an organism's own agency (see phenotype; Baldwin effect); and the struggle for existence, which included both competition between organisms and cooperation or 'mutual aid' (particularly in 'social' plants and social animals).[1][2]

Variation of traits, both genotypic and phenotypic, exists within all populations of organisms. However, some traits are more likely to facilitate survival and reproductive success. Thus, these traits are more likely to be passed on to the next generation. These traits can also become more common within a population if the environment that favours these traits remains fixed. If new traits become more favoured due to changes in a specific niche, microevolution occurs. If new traits become more favoured due to changes in the broader environment, macroevolution occurs. Sometimes, new species can arise especially if these new traits are radically different from the traits possessed by their predecessors.

The likelihood of these traits being 'selected' and passed down are determined by many factors. Some are likely to be passed down because they adapt well to their environments. Others are passed down because these traits are actively preferred by mating partners, which is known as sexual selection. Female bodies also prefer traits that confer the lowest cost to their reproductive health, which is known as fecundity selection.

Natural selection is a cornerstone of modern biology. The concept, published by Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace in a joint presentation of papers in 1858, was elaborated in Darwin's influential 1859 book On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life. He described natural selection as analogous to artificial selection, a process by which animals and plants with traits considered desirable by human breeders are systematically favoured for reproduction. The concept of natural selection originally developed in the absence of a valid theory of heredity; at the time of Darwin's writing, science had yet to develop modern theories of genetics. The union of traditional Darwinian evolution with subsequent discoveries in classical genetics formed the modern synthesis of the mid-20th century.

New evidence has prompted 21st century evolutionary biologists to challenge the 20th century's gene-centred view of evolution, producing several extended evolutionary syntheses which bring organisms back to the heart of the theory of natural selection. Convergently, the growth of molecular genetics has led to evolutionary developmental biology, which compares the developmental processes of different organisms to infer how developmental processes evolved. While it is now recognised that genotypes can slowly change by random genetic drift, natural selection remains the primary explanation for adaptive evolution.

Historical development

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Pre-Darwinian theories

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Aristotle considered whether different forms could have appeared, only the useful ones surviving.

Several philosophers of the classical era, including Empedocles[3] and his intellectual successor, the Roman poet Lucretius,[4] expressed the idea that nature produces a huge variety of creatures, randomly, and that only those creatures that manage to provide for themselves and reproduce successfully persist. Empedocles' idea that organisms arose entirely by the incidental workings of causes such as heat and cold was criticised by Aristotle in Book II of Physics.[5] He posited natural teleology in its place, and believed that form was achieved for a purpose, citing the regularity of heredity in species as proof.[6][7] Nevertheless, he accepted in his biology that new types of animals, monstrosities (τερας), can occur in very rare instances (Generation of Animals, Book IV).[8] As quoted in Darwin's 1872 edition of The Origin of Species, Aristotle considered whether different forms (e.g., of teeth) might have appeared accidentally, but only the useful forms survived:

So what hinders the different parts [of the body] from having this merely accidental relation in nature? as the teeth, for example, grow by necessity, the front ones sharp, adapted for dividing, and the grinders flat, and serviceable for masticating the food; since they were not made for the sake of this, but it was the result of accident. And in like manner as to the other parts in which there appears to exist an adaptation to an end. Wheresoever, therefore, all things together (that is all the parts of one whole) happened like as if they were made for the sake of something, these were preserved, having been appropriately constituted by an internal spontaneity, and whatsoever things were not thus constituted, perished, and still perish.

— Aristotle, Physics, Book II, Chapter 8[9]

But Aristotle rejected this possibility in the next paragraph, making clear that he is talking about the development of animals as embryos with the phrase "either invariably or normally come about", not the origin of species:

... Yet it is impossible that this should be the true view. For teeth and all other natural things either invariably or normally come about in a given way; but of not one of the results of chance or spontaneity is this true. We do not ascribe to chance or mere coincidence the frequency of rain in winter, but frequent rain in summer we do; nor heat in the dog-days, but only if we have it in winter. If then, it is agreed that things are either the result of coincidence or for an end, and these cannot be the result of coincidence or spontaneity, it follows that they must be for an end; and that such things are all due to nature even the champions of the theory which is before us would agree. Therefore action for an end is present in things which come to be and are by nature.

— Aristotle, Physics, Book II, Chapter 8[10]

The struggle for existence was later described by the Islamic writer Al-Jahiz in the 9th century, particularly in the context of top-down population regulation, but not in reference to individual variation or natural selection.[11][12]

At the turn of the 16th century Leonardo da Vinci collected a set of fossils of ammonites as well as other biological material. He extensively reasoned in his writings that the shapes of animals are not given once and forever by the "upper power" but instead are generated in different forms naturally and then selected for reproduction by their compatibility with the environment.[13]

The more recent classical arguments were reintroduced in the 18th century by Pierre Louis Maupertuis[14] and others, including Darwin's grandfather, Erasmus Darwin.

Until the early 19th century, the prevailing view in Western societies was that differences between individuals of a species were uninteresting departures from their Platonic ideals (or typus) of created kinds. However, the theory of uniformitarianism in geology promoted the idea that simple, weak forces could act continuously over long periods of time to produce radical changes in the Earth's landscape. The success of this theory raised awareness of the vast scale of geological time and made plausible the idea that tiny, virtually imperceptible changes in successive generations could produce consequences on the scale of differences between species.[15]

The early 19th-century zoologist Jean-Baptiste Lamarck suggested the inheritance of acquired characteristics as a mechanism for evolutionary change; adaptive traits acquired by an organism during its lifetime could be inherited by that organism's progeny, eventually causing transmutation of species.[16] This theory, Lamarckism, was an influence on the Soviet biologist Trofim Lysenko's ill-fated antagonism to mainstream genetic theory as late as the mid-20th century.[17]

Between 1835 and 1837, the zoologist Edward Blyth worked on the area of variation, artificial selection, and how a similar process occurs in nature. Darwin acknowledged Blyth's ideas in the first chapter on variation of On the Origin of Species.[18]

Darwin's theory

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Modern biology began in the nineteenth century with Charles Darwin's work on evolution by natural selection.

In 1859, Charles Darwin set out his theory of evolution by natural selection as an explanation for adaptation and speciation. He defined natural selection as the "principle by which each slight variation [of a trait], if useful, is preserved".[19] The concept was simple but powerful: individuals best adapted to their environments are more likely to survive and reproduce. As long as there is some variation between them and that variation is heritable, there will be an inevitable selection of individuals with the most advantageous variations. If the variations are heritable, then differential reproductive success leads to the evolution of particular populations of a species, and populations that evolve to be sufficiently different eventually become different species.[20][21]

Part of Thomas Malthus's table of population growth in England 1780–1810, from his Essay on the Principle of Population, 6th edition, 1826

Darwin's ideas were inspired by the observations that he had made on the second voyage of HMS Beagle (1831–1836), and by the work of a political economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, who, in An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), noted that population (if unchecked) increases exponentially, whereas the food supply grows only arithmetically; thus, inevitable limitations of resources would have demographic implications, leading to a "struggle for existence".[22] When Darwin read Malthus in 1838 he was already primed by his work as a naturalist to appreciate the "struggle for existence" in nature. It struck him that as population outgrew resources, "favourable variations would tend to be preserved, and unfavourable ones to be destroyed. The result of this would be the formation of new species."[23] Darwin wrote:

If during the long course of ages and under varying conditions of life, organic beings vary at all in the several parts of their organisation, and I think this cannot be disputed; if there be, owing to the high geometrical powers of increase of each species, at some age, season, or year, a severe struggle for life, and this certainly cannot be disputed; then, considering the infinite complexity of the relations of all organic beings to each other and to their conditions of existence, causing an infinite diversity in structure, constitution, and habits, to be advantageous to them, I think it would be a most extraordinary fact if no variation ever had occurred useful to each being's own welfare, in the same way as so many variations have occurred useful to man. But if variations useful to any organic being do occur, assuredly individuals thus characterised will have the best chance of being preserved in the struggle for life; and from the strong principle of inheritance they will tend to produce offspring similarly characterised. This principle of preservation, I have called, for the sake of brevity, Natural Selection.

— Darwin summarising natural selection in the fourth chapter of On the Origin of Species[24]

Once he had this hypothesis, Darwin was meticulous about gathering and refining evidence of consilience to meet standards of methodology before making his scientific theory public.[15] He was in the process of writing his "big book" to present his research when the naturalist Alfred Russel Wallace independently conceived of the principle and described it in an essay he sent to Darwin to forward to Charles Lyell. Lyell and Joseph Dalton Hooker decided to present his essay together with unpublished writings that Darwin had sent to fellow naturalists, and On the Tendency of Species to form Varieties; and on the Perpetuation of Varieties and Species by Natural Means of Selection was read to the Linnean Society of London announcing co-discovery of the principle in July 1858.[25] Darwin published a detailed account of his evidence and conclusions in On the Origin of Species in 1859. In later editions Darwin acknowledged that earlier writers—like William Charles Wells in 1813,[26] and Patrick Matthew in 1831—had proposed similar basic ideas.[27] However, they had not developed their ideas, or presented evidence to persuade others that the concept was useful.[15]

Charles Darwin noted that pigeon fanciers had created many kinds of pigeon, such as Tumblers (1, 12), Fantails (13), and Pouters (14) by selective breeding.

Darwin thought of natural selection by analogy to how farmers select crops or livestock for breeding, which he called "artificial selection"; in his early manuscripts he referred to a "Nature" which would do the selection. At the time, mechanisms of evolution such as evolution by genetic drift were not yet explicitly formulated, but, even in 1859, Darwin clearly stated that selection was only part of the story: "I am convinced that Natural Selection has been the main but not exclusive means of modification".[28] The final edition of The Origin of Species documented several other contributors to evolutionary modification: sexual selection; the inherited effects of the use and disuse of parts (see Baldwin effect); "the direct action of external conditions" (a process which has been revived in some 21st century evolutionary biologies);[29] and "variations which seem to us in our ignorance to arise spontaneously" (see mutation).[30] In a letter to Charles Lyell in September 1860, Darwin regretted the use of the term "Natural Selection", preferring the term "Natural Preservation".[31]

For Darwin and his contemporaries, evolution was in essence synonymous with evolution by natural selection. After the publication of On the Origin of Species,[32] educated people generally accepted that evolution had occurred in some form. However, natural selection remained controversial as a law or mechanism, partly because it was perceived to be too weak to explain the range of observed characteristics of living organisms, and partly because even supporters of evolution balked at its "unguided" and non-progressive nature,[33] a response that has been characterised as the single most significant impediment to the idea's acceptance.[34] However, some thinkers enthusiastically embraced natural selection; after reading Darwin, Herbert Spencer introduced the phrase survival of the fittest, which became a popular summary of the theory.[35][36] The fifth edition of On the Origin of Species published in 1869 included Spencer's phrase as an alternative to natural selection, with credit given: "But the expression often used by Mr. Herbert Spencer of the Survival of the Fittest is more accurate, and is sometimes equally convenient."[37] Although the phrase is still often used by non-biologists, modern biologists avoid it because it is tautological if "fittest" is read to mean "functionally superior" and is applied to individuals rather than considered as an averaged quantity over populations.[38]

The modern synthesis

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Natural selection relies crucially on the idea of heredity, but developed before the basic concepts of genetics were invented. Although the Moravian monk Gregor Mendel, the father of modern genetics, was a contemporary of Darwin's, his work lay in obscurity, only being rediscovered in 1900.[39] With the early 20th-century integration of evolution with Mendel's laws of inheritance, the so-called modern synthesis, scientists generally came to accept natural selection.[40][41] The synthesis grew from advances in different fields. Ronald Fisher developed the required mathematical language and wrote The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection (1930).[42] J. B. S. Haldane introduced the concept of the "cost" of natural selection.[43][44] Sewall Wright elucidated the nature of selection and adaptation.[45] In his book Genetics and the Origin of Species (1937), Theodosius Dobzhansky established the idea that mutation, once seen as a rival to selection, actually supplied the raw material for natural selection by creating genetic diversity.[46][47]

A second synthesis

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Evolutionary developmental biology relates the evolution of form to the precise pattern of gene activity, here gap genes in the fruit fly, during embryonic development.[48]

Ernst Mayr recognised the key importance of reproductive isolation for speciation in his Systematics and the Origin of Species (1942).[49] W. D. Hamilton conceived of kin selection in 1964.[50] This synthesis cemented natural selection as the foundation of evolutionary theory, where it remains today. A second synthesis was brought about at the end of the 20th century by advances in molecular genetics, creating the field of evolutionary developmental biology ("evo-devo"), which seeks to explain the evolution of form in terms of the genetic regulatory programs which control the development of the embryo at molecular level. Natural selection is here understood to act on embryonic development to change the morphology of the adult body.[51][52][53][54]

21st century developments

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Darwin's argument in On the Origin of Species portrayed natural selection as a law which resulted from other processes: inheritance (including both the transmission and development of heritable material); what we now call 'phenotypic' variation; and the metaphorical struggle for existence among living organisms. The 20th century's dominant theories of evolutionary biology treated natural selection differently, as if it were itself a causal mechanism, the agency of which was attributed either to the machinations of selfish genes or to 'the environment'. Which meant that living organisms themselves dropped out of scientists' theoretical picture. Under the pressure of evidence, 21st century evolutionary biology has seen growing criticism of the 20th century's gene-centred view of evolution. In consequence we now have an array of extended evolutionary syntheses which have returned the agency of living organisms to the heart of the theory of natural selection.[55][56]

Terminology

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The term natural selection is most often defined as the differential survival and reproduction of different phenotypic variations, where these are supported by heritable traits. It is sometimes helpful to distinguish between the processes or mechanisms which result in selection and selection's effects. Traits that endow greater reproductive success on an organism are said to be selected for, while those that reduce success are selected against.[57]

Mechanism

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Heritable variation, differential reproduction

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During the Industrial Revolution, pollution killed many lichens, leaving tree trunks dark. A dark (melanic) morph of the peppered moth largely replaced the formerly usual light morph (both shown here). Since the moths are subject to predation by birds hunting by sight, the colour change offers better camouflage against the changed background, suggesting natural selection at work.

Natural or phenotypic variation occurs among the individuals of any population of organisms. Some variations may improve an individual's chances of surviving and reproducing such that its lifetime reproductive rate is increased, which means that it leaves more offspring. If the variations that give these individuals a reproductive advantage are also supported by heritable traits which are passed from parent to offspring, then there will be differential reproduction, that is, a slightly higher proportion of flying squirrels,[58] fast rabbits or efficient algae in the next generation. Even if the reproductive advantage is very slight, over many generations any advantageous heritable trait becomes dominant in the population. In this way the natural environment of an organism "selects for" traits that confer a reproductive advantage, causing evolutionary change, as Darwin described.[59] This gives the appearance of purpose, but in natural selection there is no intentional choice.[a] Artificial selection is purposive where natural selection is not, though biologists often use teleological language to describe it.[60]

The peppered moth exists in both light and dark colours in Great Britain, but during the Industrial Revolution, many of the trees on which the moths rested became blackened by soot, giving the dark-coloured moths an advantage in hiding from predators. This gave dark-coloured moths a better chance of surviving to produce dark-coloured offspring, and in just fifty years from the first dark moth being caught, nearly all of the moths in industrial Manchester were dark. The balance was reversed by the effect of the Clean Air Act 1956, and the dark moths became rare again, demonstrating the influence of natural selection on peppered moth evolution.[61] A recent study, using image analysis and avian vision models, shows that pale individuals more closely match lichen backgrounds than dark morphs and for the first time quantifies the camouflage of moths to predation risk.[62] Modern genetic studies show that the switch from light to dark coloration is due to a transposable element insertion into the first intron of the gene cortex.[63]

An example of natural selection in the wild involving a much larger number of genes is given by ash trees in Britain, under selection by an invasive fungus causing ash dieback.[64] This fungus has killed large numbers of ash trees in Europe,[65] and damaged many others, though some trees remain healthy.[66] The genetic basis of health under ash dieback pressure has been shown to be quantitative and highly polygenic.[67] Using genomic prediction models trained on planted trials,[67] geneticists have shown that natural selection is acting on a woodland in Surrey England, causing the new generation of ash trees to be, on average, more genetically resistant to ash dieback than their parents generation.[68] This is due to selection for beneficial gene combinations from among the variation present in the parents.[68]

Fitness

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The concept of fitness is central to natural selection. In broad terms, individuals that are more "fit" have better potential for survival, as in the well-known phrase "survival of the fittest", but the precise meaning of the term is much more subtle. Modern evolutionary theory defines fitness not by how long an organism lives, but by how successful it is at reproducing. If an organism lives half as long as others of its species, but has twice as many offspring surviving to adulthood, its genes become more common in the adult population of the next generation. Though natural selection acts on individuals, the effects of chance mean that fitness can only really be defined "on average" for the individuals within a population. The fitness of a particular genotype corresponds to the average effect on all individuals with that genotype.[69] A distinction must be made between the concept of "survival of the fittest" and "improvement in fitness". "Survival of the fittest" does not give an "improvement in fitness", it only represents the removal of the less fit variants from a population. A mathematical example of "survival of the fittest" is given by Haldane in his paper "The Cost of Natural Selection".[70] Haldane called this process "substitution" or more commonly in biology, this is called "fixation". This is correctly described by the differential survival and reproduction of individuals due to differences in phenotype. On the other hand, "improvement in fitness" is not dependent on the differential survival and reproduction of individuals due to differences in phenotype, it is dependent on the absolute survival of the particular variant. The probability of a beneficial mutation occurring on some member of a population depends on the total number of replications of that variant. The mathematics of "improvement in fitness was described by Kleinman.[71] An empirical example of "improvement in fitness" is given by the Kishony Mega-plate experiment.[72] In this experiment, "improvement in fitness" depends on the number of replications of the particular variant for a new variant to appear that is capable of growing in the next higher drug concentration region. Fixation or substitution is not required for this "improvement in fitness". On the other hand, "improvement in fitness" can occur in an environment where "survival of the fittest" is also acting. Richard Lenski's classic E. coli long-term evolution experiment is an example of adaptation in a competitive environment, ("improvement in fitness" during "survival of the fittest").[73] The probability of a beneficial mutation occurring on some member of the lineage to give improved fitness is slowed by the competition. The variant which is a candidate for a beneficial mutation in this limited carrying capacity environment must first out-compete the "less fit" variants in order to accumulate the requisite number of replications for there to be a reasonable probability of that beneficial mutation occurring.[74]

Competition

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In biology, competition is an interaction between organisms in which the fitness of one is lowered by the presence of another. This may be because both rely on a limited supply of a resource such as food, water, or territory.[75] Competition may be within or between species, and may be direct or indirect.[76] Species less suited to compete should in theory either adapt or die out, since competition plays a powerful role in natural selection, but according to the "room to roam" theory it may be less important than expansion among larger clades.[76][77]

Competition is modelled by r/K selection theory, which is based on Robert MacArthur and E. O. Wilson's work on island biogeography.[78] In this theory, selective pressures drive evolution in one of two stereotyped directions: r- or K-selection.[79] These terms, r and K, can be illustrated in a logistic model of population dynamics:[80]

where r is the growth rate of the population (N), and K is the carrying capacity of its local environmental setting. Typically, r-selected species exploit empty niches, and produce many offspring, each with a relatively low probability of surviving to adulthood. In contrast, K-selected species are strong competitors in crowded niches, and invest more heavily in much fewer offspring, each with a relatively high probability of surviving to adulthood.[80]

Social species

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Foreshadowing a central theme in 21st century evolutionary biology, Darwin argued that natural selection operated differently in social than in non-social species. The members of social species aided their conspecifics to survive, either passively (as in social plants) or both passively and actively, as in social animals. Darwin called plants like grasses and thistles social, because, in a "somewhat strained sense", they help each other by increasing their mutual chances of cross-fertilization (and hence vigour), and by reducing the depredations of their "devourers" (e.g. birds eating their seeds). This meant that often, if social plants "did not live in numbers, they could not live at all."[81]

When it came to animals, Darwin said a truly social animal sought society beyond its own family. Unlike marmosets and tamarins, gorillas, lions, and tigers were not social in Darwin's sense, because, while they "no doubt" felt sympathy for the suffering of their young, they did not sympathize with "any other animal" beyond their own family.[82][83]

In addition to the passive kinds of mutual aid[84] that advantaged social plants, social animals could gain additional benefits through efficiencies due to divisions of labour like those found in social insects. Beyond this, some social species of bird and mammal actively signaled danger to other members of their community, some even posting sentinels to warn the group of approaching enemies. Thus rabbits stamp their hind-feet, and female seals act as look-outs. Social creatures may also actively groom each other, removing parasites, or licking each other’s wounds. Animals like wolves, killer whales, and pelicans hunt in concert, sometimes with a combined strategy. Social animals mutually defend each other too, and thereby show their "heroism."[85] All these advantages mean that, in social animals, unlike non-social species, natural selection "will adapt the structure of each individual for the benefit of the whole community; if the community profits by the selected change."[86] In The Descent of Man, Darwin attributes the evolution of all the most human of human characteristics—rationality, intellect, language, conscience, moral qualities, and culture—to the fact that our pre-human ancestors were group-living social animals par excellence.

Although the gene-centred view of evolution promulgated by the 20th century's modern synthesis in evolutionary biology denied the possibility of community or group selection of the kind proposed by Darwin, 21st century evolutionists are less dismissive.[87]

Classification

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1: directional selection: a single extreme phenotype favoured.
2, stabilizing selection: intermediate favoured over extremes.
3: disruptive selection: extremes favoured over intermediate.
X-axis: phenotypic trait
Y-axis: number of organisms
Group A: original population
Group B: after selection

Natural selection can act on any heritable phenotypic trait,[88] and selective pressure can be altered by any aspect of the environment, including sexual selection and competition or cooperation with members of the same or other species.[89][90] However, this does not imply that natural selection is always directional and results in adaptive evolution; natural selection often results in the maintenance of the status quo by eliminating less fit variants.[59]

Selection can be classified in several different ways, such as by its effect on a trait, on genetic diversity, by the life cycle stage where it acts, by the unit of selection, or by the resource being competed for.

By effect on a trait

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Selection has different effects on phenotypic traits. Stabilizing selection acts to hold a trait at a stable optimum, and in the simplest case all deviations from this optimum are selectively disadvantageous. Directional selection favours extreme values of a trait. The uncommon disruptive selection also acts during transition periods when the current mode is sub-optimal, but alters the trait in more than one direction. In particular, if the trait is quantitative and univariate then both higher and lower trait levels are favoured. Disruptive selection can be a precursor to speciation.[59]

By effect on genetic diversity

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Alternatively, selection can be divided according to its effect on genetic diversity. Purifying or negative selection acts to remove genetic variation from the population (and is opposed by de novo mutation, which introduces new variation.[91][92] In contrast, balancing selection acts to maintain genetic variation in a population, even in the absence of de novo mutation, by negative frequency-dependent selection. One mechanism for this is heterozygote advantage, where individuals with two different alleles have a selective advantage over individuals with just one allele. The polymorphism at the human ABO blood group locus has been explained in this way.[93]

Different types of selection act at each life cycle stage of a sexually reproducing organism.[94]

By life cycle stage

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Another option is to classify selection by the life cycle stage at which it acts. Some biologists recognise just two types: viability (or survival) selection, which acts to increase an organism's probability of survival, and fecundity (or fertility or reproductive) selection, which acts to increase the rate of reproduction, given survival. Others split the life cycle into further components of selection. Thus viability and survival selection may be defined separately and respectively as acting to improve the probability of survival before and after reproductive age is reached, while fecundity selection may be split into additional sub-components including sexual selection, gametic selection, acting on gamete survival, and compatibility selection, acting on zygote formation.[94]

By unit of selection

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Selection can also be classified by the level or unit of selection. Individual selection acts on the individual, in the sense that adaptations are "for" the benefit of the individual, and result from selection among individuals. Gene selection acts directly at the level of the gene. In kin selection and intragenomic conflict, gene-level selection provides a more apt explanation of the underlying process. Group selection, if it occurs, acts on groups of organisms, on the assumption that groups replicate and mutate in an analogous way to genes and individuals. There is an ongoing debate over the degree to which group selection occurs in nature.[95]

By resource being competed for

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The peacock's elaborate plumage is mentioned by Darwin as an example of sexual selection,[96] and is a classic example of Fisherian runaway,[97] driven to its conspicuous size and coloration through mate choice by females over many generations.

Finally, selection can be classified according to the resource being competed for. Sexual selection results from competition for mates. Sexual selection typically proceeds via fecundity selection, sometimes at the expense of viability. Ecological selection is natural selection via any means other than sexual selection, such as kin selection, competition, and infanticide. Following Darwin, natural selection is sometimes defined as ecological selection,[98] in which case sexual selection is considered a separate mechanism.[99]

Sexual selection as first articulated by Darwin (using the example of the peacock's tail)[96] refers specifically to competition for mates,[100] which can be intrasexual, between individuals of the same sex, that is male–male competition, or intersexual, where one gender chooses mates, most often with males displaying and females choosing.[101] However, in some species, mate choice is primarily by males, as in some fishes of the family Syngnathidae.[102][103]

Phenotypic traits can be displayed in one sex and desired in the other sex, causing a positive feedback loop called a Fisherian runaway, for example, the extravagant plumage of some male birds such as the peacock.[97] An alternate theory proposed by the same Ronald Fisher in 1930 is the sexy son hypothesis, that mothers want promiscuous sons to give them large numbers of grandchildren and so choose promiscuous fathers for their children. Aggression between members of the same sex is sometimes associated with very distinctive features, such as the antlers of stags, which are used in combat with other stags. More generally, intrasexual selection is often associated with sexual dimorphism, including differences in body size between males and females of a species.[101]

Arms races

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Selection in action: resistance to antibiotics grows through the survival of individuals less affected by the antibiotic. Their offspring inherit the resistance.

Natural selection is seen in action in the development of antibiotic resistance in microorganisms. Since the discovery of penicillin in 1928, antibiotics have been used to fight bacterial diseases. The widespread misuse of antibiotics has selected for microbial resistance to antibiotics in clinical use, to the point that the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been described as a "superbug" because of the threat it poses to health and its relative invulnerability to existing drugs.[104] Response strategies typically include the use of different, stronger antibiotics; however, new strains of MRSA have recently emerged that are resistant even to these drugs.[105] This is an evolutionary arms race, in which bacteria develop strains less susceptible to antibiotics, while medical researchers attempt to develop new antibiotics that can kill them. A similar situation occurs with pesticide resistance in plants and insects. Arms races are not necessarily induced by man; a well-documented example involves the spread of a gene in the butterfly Hypolimnas bolina suppressing male-killing activity by Wolbachia bacteria parasites on the island of Samoa, where the spread of the gene is known to have occurred over a period of just five years.[106][107]

Evolution by means of natural selection

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Without phenotypic variation, there would be no evolution by natural selection. A prerequisite for natural selection to result in adaptive evolution, novel traits and speciation is the presence of heritable genetic variation that affects phenotypic fitness differences. Genetic variation is the result of mutations, genetic recombinations and alterations in the karyotype (the number, shape, size and internal arrangement of the chromosomes). Any of these changes might have an effect that is highly advantageous or highly disadvantageous for phenotypic variations, but large effects on phenotypes are rare.

In the past, most changes in the genetic material were considered neutral or close to neutral because they occurred in noncoding DNA or resulted in a synonymous substitution. However, many mutations in non-coding DNA have deleterious effects.[108][109] Although both mutation rates and average fitness effects of mutations are dependent on the organism, a majority of mutations in humans are slightly deleterious.[110]

Some mutations occur in "toolkit" or regulatory genes. Changes in these often have large effects on the phenotype of the individual because they regulate the function of many other genes. Most, but not all, mutations in regulatory genes result in non-viable embryos. Some nonlethal regulatory mutations occur in HOX genes in humans, which can result in a cervical rib[111] or polydactyly, an increase in the number of fingers or toes.[112] When such mutations result in a higher fitness, natural selection favours these phenotypes and the novel trait spreads in the population. Established traits are not immutable; traits that have high fitness in one environmental context may be much less fit if environmental conditions change. In the absence of natural selection to preserve such a trait, it becomes more variable and deteriorate over time, possibly resulting in a vestigial manifestation of the trait, also called evolutionary baggage. In many circumstances, the apparently vestigial structure may retain a limited functionality, or may be co-opted for other advantageous traits in a phenomenon known as preadaptation. A famous example of a vestigial structure, the eye of the blind mole-rat, is believed to retain function in photoperiod perception.[113]

Speciation

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Speciation requires a degree of reproductive isolation—that is, a reduction in gene flow. However, it is intrinsic to the concept of a species that hybrids are selected against, opposing the evolution of reproductive isolation, a problem that was recognised by Darwin. The problem does not occur in allopatric speciation with geographically separated populations, which can diverge with different sets of mutations. E. B. Poulton realized in 1903 that reproductive isolation could evolve through divergence, if each lineage acquired a different, incompatible allele of the same gene. Selection against the heterozygote would then directly create reproductive isolation, leading to the Bateson–Dobzhansky–Muller model, further elaborated by H. Allen Orr[114] and Sergey Gavrilets.[115] With reinforcement, however, natural selection can favour an increase in pre-zygotic isolation, influencing the process of speciation directly.[116]

Genetic basis

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Genotype and phenotype

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Natural selection results from the ways an organism's phenotypes, or observable characteristics, bear on its capacity to reproduce. Phenotypes are plastic which means they are less directly determined by a given organism's genetic make-up (genotype) than by the way that particular organism develops and behaves in the theatre of agency which constitutes its habitat or environment. When different organisms in a population possess different versions of a gene affecting a certain phenotypic trait, each of these versions is known as an allele. (An example is the ABO blood type antigens in humans, where three alleles govern the phenotype.[117]) It is these genetic variations which affect fitness-relevant differences in phenotypic traits and so underpin the evolution of new adaptations and, ultimately, new species.

Some traits are governed by only a single gene, but most traits are influenced by the interactions of many genes. A variation in one of the many genes that contributes to a trait may have only a small effect on the phenotype; together, these genes can support a continuum of possible phenotypic values.[118]

Directionality of selection

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When some component of a phenotypic trait is heritable, selection alters the frequencies of the different alleles, or variants of the gene that affect the variants of the observed trait. Selection can be divided into three classes, on the basis of its effect on allele frequencies: directional, stabilizing, and disruptive selection.[119] Directional selection occurs when an allele has a greater fitness than others, so that it increases in frequency, gaining an increasing share in the population. This process can continue until the allele is fixed and the entire population shares the fitter phenotype.[120] Far more common is stabilizing selection, which lowers the frequency of alleles that have a deleterious effect on the phenotype—that is, produce organisms of lower fitness. This process can continue until the allele is eliminated from the population. Stabilizing selection conserves functional genetic features, such as protein-coding genes or regulatory sequences, over time by selective pressure against deleterious variants.[121] Disruptive (or diversifying) selection is selection favouring extreme trait values over intermediate trait values. Disruptive selection may cause sympatric speciation through niche partitioning.

Some forms of balancing selection do not result in fixation, but maintain an allele at intermediate frequencies in a population. This can occur in diploid species (with pairs of chromosomes) when heterozygous individuals (with just one copy of the allele) have a higher fitness than homozygous individuals (with two copies). This is called heterozygote advantage or over-dominance, of which the best-known example is the resistance to malaria in humans heterozygous for sickle-cell anaemia. Maintenance of allelic variation can also occur through disruptive or diversifying selection, which favours genotypes that depart from the average in either direction (that is, the opposite of over-dominance), and can result in a bimodal distribution of trait values. Finally, balancing selection can occur through frequency-dependent selection, where the fitness of one particular phenotype depends on the distribution of other phenotypes in the population. The principles of game theory have been applied to understand the fitness distributions in these situations, particularly in the study of kin selection and the evolution of reciprocal altruism.[50][122]

Selection, genetic variation, and drift

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A portion of all genetic variation is functionally neutral, producing no phenotypic effect or significant difference in fitness. Motoo Kimura's neutral theory of molecular evolution by genetic drift proposes that this variation accounts for a large fraction of observed genetic diversity.[123] Neutral events can radically reduce genetic variation through population bottlenecks,[124] which among other things can cause the founder effect in initially small new populations.[125] When genetic variation does not result in differences in fitness, selection cannot directly affect the frequency of such variation. As a result, the genetic variation at those sites is higher than at sites where variation does influence fitness.[119] However, after a period with no new mutations, the genetic variation at these sites is eliminated due to genetic drift. Natural selection reduces genetic variation by eliminating maladapted individuals, and consequently the mutations that caused the maladaptation. At the same time, new mutations occur, resulting in a mutation–selection balance. The exact outcome of the two processes depends both on the rate at which new mutations occur and on the strength of the natural selection, which is a function of how unfavourable the mutation proves to be.[126]

Genetic linkage occurs when the loci of two alleles are close on a chromosome. During the formation of gametes, recombination reshuffles the alleles. The chance that such a reshuffle occurs between two alleles is inversely related to the distance between them. Selective sweeps occur when an allele becomes more common in a population as a result of positive selection. As the prevalence of one allele increases, closely linked alleles can also become more common by "genetic hitchhiking", whether they are neutral or even slightly deleterious. A strong selective sweep results in a region of the genome where the positively selected haplotype (the allele and its neighbours) are in essence the only ones that exist in the population. Selective sweeps can be detected by measuring linkage disequilibrium, or whether a given haplotype is overrepresented in the population. Since a selective sweep also results in selection of neighbouring alleles, the presence of a block of strong linkage disequilibrium might indicate a 'recent' selective sweep near the centre of the block.[127]

Background selection is the opposite of a selective sweep. If a specific site experiences strong and persistent purifying selection, linked variation tends to be weeded out along with it, producing a region in the genome of low overall variability. Because background selection is a result of deleterious new mutations, which can occur randomly in any haplotype, it does not produce clear blocks of linkage disequilibrium, although with low recombination it can still lead to slightly negative linkage disequilibrium overall.[128]

Impact

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Darwin's ideas, along with those of Adam Smith and Karl Marx, had a profound influence on 19th century thought, including his radical claim that "elaborately constructed forms, so different from each other, and dependent on each other in so complex a manner" evolved from the simplest forms of life by a few simple principles.[129] This inspired some of Darwin's most ardent supporters—and provoked the strongest opposition. Natural selection had the power, according to Stephen Jay Gould, to "dethrone some of the deepest and most traditional comforts of Western thought", such as the belief that humans have a special place in the world.[130]

In the words of the philosopher Daniel Dennett, "Darwin's dangerous idea" of evolution by natural selection is a "universal acid," which cannot be kept restricted to any vessel or container, as it soon leaks out, working its way into ever-wider surroundings.[131] Thus, in the last decades, the concept of natural selection has spread from evolutionary biology to other disciplines, including evolutionary computation, quantum Darwinism, evolutionary economics, evolutionary epistemology, evolutionary psychology, and cosmological natural selection. This unlimited applicability has been called universal Darwinism.[132]

Origin of life

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How life originated from inorganic matter remains an unresolved problem in biology. One prominent hypothesis is that life first appeared in the form of short self-replicating RNA polymers.[133] On this view, life may have come into existence when RNA chains first experienced the basic conditions, as conceived by Charles Darwin, for natural selection to operate. These conditions are: heritability, variation of type, and competition for limited resources. The fitness of an early RNA replicator would likely have been a function of adaptive capacities that were intrinsic (i.e., determined by the nucleotide sequence) and the availability of resources.[134][135] The three primary adaptive capacities could logically have been: (1) the capacity to replicate with moderate fidelity (giving rise to both heritability and variation of type), (2) the capacity to avoid decay, and (3) the capacity to acquire and process resources.[134][135] These capacities would have been determined initially by the folded configurations (including those configurations with ribozyme activity) of the RNA replicators that, in turn, would have been encoded in their individual nucleotide sequences.[136]

Cell and molecular biology

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In 1881, the embryologist Wilhelm Roux published Der Kampf der Theile im Organismus (The Struggle of Parts in the Organism) in which he suggested that the development of an organism results from a Darwinian competition between the parts of the embryo, occurring at all levels, from molecules to organs.[137] In recent years, a modern version of this theory has been proposed by Jean-Jacques Kupiec. According to this cellular Darwinism, random variation at the molecular level generates diversity in cell types whereas cell interactions impose a characteristic order on the developing embryo.[138]

Social and psychological theory

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The social implications of the theory of evolution by natural selection also became the source of continuing controversy. Friedrich Engels, a German political philosopher and co-originator of the ideology of communism, wrote in 1872 that "Darwin did not know what a bitter satire he wrote on mankind, and especially on his countrymen, when he showed that free competition, the struggle for existence, which the economists celebrate as the highest historical achievement, is the normal state of the animal kingdom."[139] Herbert Spencer and the eugenics advocate Francis Galton's interpretation of natural selection as necessarily progressive, leading to supposed advances in intelligence and civilisation, became a justification for colonialism, eugenics, and social Darwinism. For example, in 1940, Konrad Lorenz, in writings that he subsequently disowned, used the theory as a justification for policies of the Nazi state. He wrote "... selection for toughness, heroism, and social utility ... must be accomplished by some human institution, if mankind, in default of selective factors, is not to be ruined by domestication-induced degeneracy. The racial idea as the basis of our state has already accomplished much in this respect."[140] Others have developed ideas that human societies and culture evolve by mechanisms analogous to those that apply to evolution of species.[141]

More recently, work among anthropologists and psychologists has led to the development of sociobiology and later of evolutionary psychology, a field that attempts to explain features of human psychology in terms of adaptation to the ancestral environment. The most prominent example of evolutionary psychology, notably advanced in the early work of Noam Chomsky and later by Steven Pinker, is the hypothesis that the human brain has adapted to acquire the grammatical rules of natural language.[142] Other aspects of human behaviour and social structures, from specific cultural norms such as incest avoidance to broader patterns such as gender roles, have been hypothesised to have similar origins as adaptations to the early environment in which modern humans evolved. By analogy to the action of natural selection on genes, the concept of memes—"units of cultural transmission," or culture's equivalents of genes undergoing selection and recombination—has arisen, first described in this form by Richard Dawkins in 1976[143] and subsequently expanded upon by philosophers such as Daniel Dennett as explanations for complex cultural activities, including human consciousness.[144]

Information and systems theory

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In 1922, Alfred J. Lotka proposed that natural selection might be understood as a physical principle that could be described in terms of the use of energy by a system,[145][146] a concept later developed by Howard T. Odum as the maximum power principle in thermodynamics, whereby evolutionary systems with selective advantage maximise the rate of useful energy transformation.[147]

The principles of natural selection have inspired a variety of computational techniques, such as "soft" artificial life, that simulate selective processes and can be highly efficient in 'adapting' entities to an environment defined by a specified fitness function.[148] For example, a class of heuristic optimisation algorithms known as genetic algorithms, pioneered by John Henry Holland in the 1970s and expanded upon by David E. Goldberg,[149] identify optimal solutions by simulated reproduction and mutation of a population of solutions defined by an initial probability distribution.[150] Such algorithms are particularly useful when applied to problems whose energy landscape is very rough or has many local minima.[151]

In fiction

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Darwinian evolution by natural selection is pervasive in literature, whether taken optimistically in terms of how humanity may evolve towards perfection, or pessimistically in terms of the dire consequences of the interaction of human nature and the struggle for survival. Among major responses is Samuel Butler's 1872 pessimistic Erewhon ("nowhere", written mostly backwards). In 1893 H. G. Wells imagined "The Man of the Year Million", transformed by natural selection into a being with a huge head and eyes, and shrunken body.[152]

Notes

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References

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Further reading

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Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
Natural selection is the differential survival and reproduction of organisms due to heritable differences in their phenotypes interacting with environmental conditions, leading to changes in the genetic composition of populations over successive generations. This process acts on existing , primarily arising from and recombination, favoring traits that enhance fitness without directing the production of adaptive variations. The theory was independently formulated in the 1850s by , during his analysis of biogeographical patterns and artificial selection analogies, and by , inspired by Malthusian population pressures observed in . Wallace's manuscript prompted Darwin to present their joint ideas at the Linnean Society in 1858, after which Darwin published in 1859, providing extensive evidence from , , and geographical distribution. Natural selection's explanatory power lies in its causal mechanism—variation, , and selection pressures—underpinning adaptations such as beak morphology in or in insects, validated through field observations, experiments, and genomic analyses. While other evolutionary forces like contribute to change, natural selection uniquely accounts for complex, functional traits without teleological intent, distinguishing it from pre-Darwinian notions of purposeful .

Core Concepts and Mechanisms

Heritable Variation and Differential Reproduction

Heritable variation constitutes the raw material upon which natural selection acts, consisting of genetic differences among individuals in a that influence traits affecting and and are transmitted to offspring. These differences arise from mechanisms such as , which introduces new alleles, and recombination during , which reshuffles existing genetic material to generate novel combinations. For variation to enable evolutionary change, it must exhibit , meaning the phenotypic differences correlate with underlying genotypic differences that parents pass to progeny, typically quantified by heritability estimates ranging from 0 to 1 in quantitative genetic studies. Without heritable variation, differential success among individuals would not propagate across generations, precluding . Differential reproduction occurs when individuals with certain heritable traits produce more surviving offspring than others, leading to a shift in the frequency of those traits in subsequent generations. This process requires not only variation and but also that the traits confer varying fitness—defined as the relative reproductive output—in response to environmental pressures such as predation, resource scarcity, or disease. Empirical observations, such as the rapid increase in melanic forms of the (Biston betularia) during Britain's due to advantages on soot-darkened trees, demonstrate how heritable color variation interacts with differential predation to alter composition within decades. In this case, the heritable for rose from near rarity to over 95% prevalence in polluted areas by the mid-19th century before declining post-cleanup, illustrating causal linkage between trait variation, survival differentials, and . The interplay of heritable variation and differential reproduction drives changes in frequencies, the hallmark of by natural selection, as advantageous variants increase in prevalence while disadvantageous ones diminish. formalizes this through the breeder's , R=h2SR = h^2 S, where response to selection (RR) equals (h2h^2) times selection differential (SS), the difference in mean trait value between selected parents and the population. Field studies confirm this dynamic; for instance, in Drosophila populations, heritable variation in bristle number responds predictably to imposed selection pressures, yielding multigenerational shifts aligned with differential reproductive outputs. Constraints arise if variation is low or heritability minimal, as in cases of genetic uniformity from , underscoring that natural selection's efficacy hinges on the availability and transmissibility of adaptive .

Fitness, Adaptation, and Competition

In , fitness quantifies an organism's relative success in transmitting its genes to subsequent generations, typically measured as the average number of offspring that themselves reproduce. This metric encompasses components such as viability (survival to reproductive age), (number of offspring produced), and mating success, with higher-fitness genotypes increasing in frequency under natural selection due to differential reproductive output. Fitness is inherently relative, comparing individuals within a rather than absolute survival rates, and it varies with environmental conditions, as traits advantageous in one context may reduce fitness in another. Adaptations are heritable traits or complexes of traits that enhance an organism's fitness in its specific , arising cumulatively through natural selection acting on over generations. Unlike incidental beneficial traits, true adaptations reflect historical selection pressures, as evidenced by the beak morphologies of , where variations aligned with seed sizes available during droughts conferred survival advantages, leading to population-level shifts. This process underscores causal realism in evolution: selection favors traits causally linked to increased , such as physiological efficiencies or behavioral strategies that mitigate mortality risks from predators or resource scarcity. Competition, particularly intraspecific, underpins natural selection by generating differential fitness outcomes amid limited resources, as populations tend to exceed carrying capacities through exponential growth while resources increase arithmetically. Darwin identified this "struggle for existence" as the mechanism driving adaptation, where heritable variations enabling better resource acquisition or competitor avoidance yield higher reproductive success, thereby propagating adaptive traits. Empirical data from microbial experiments confirm this dynamic, showing competitive exclusion or trait evolution under nutrient constraints, with selection intensities correlating to resource scarcity levels. Interspecific competition can similarly impose selection, though less directly on trait fixation within populations, highlighting competition's role in shaping fitness landscapes and adaptive radiations.

Genetic and Phenotypic Foundations

within populations serves as the fundamental substrate for natural selection, arising primarily from that introduce new alleles and from sexual recombination that reshuffles existing ones. Without such variation, differential survival and reproduction cannot lead to evolutionary change, as uniform genotypes would yield identical phenotypes unresponsive to selective pressures. Empirical studies confirm that natural selection shapes patterns of across genomes, often depleting variation at sites under strong purifying selection while preserving it in neutral or advantageous contexts. Phenotypic variation, the observable traits upon which selection directly acts, emerges from the expression of genetic variants interacting with environmental factors. , defined as the ratio of additive genetic variance to total phenotypic variance (h2=VA/VPh^2 = V_A / V_P), measures the transmissible portion of this variation; only heritable components allow selection to alter frequencies across generations.00186-8) For instance, quantitative genetic models show that response to selection (RR) equals the product of selection differential (SS) and (R=h2SR = h^2 S), predicting evolutionary trajectories based on empirical variance estimates. The integration of Mendelian genetics with Darwinian selection in the Modern Synthesis, formalized by , , and in the 1920s and 1930s, established that natural selection efficiently modifies gene frequencies when variation is heritable and linked to fitness. Fisher's The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection (1930) mathematically demonstrated how continuous variation in polygenic traits could evolve under selection, resolving earlier debates on blending inheritance. Phenotypic , the capacity for one to produce multiple phenotypes in response to environmental cues, complicates but does not supplant genetic foundations, as plastic responses often harbor underlying in reaction norms. While plasticity enables short-term acclimation—potentially buffering selection in fluctuating environments—long-term adaptation requires genetic assimilation, where selection favors genotypes with canalized beneficial traits initially induced plastically. Studies indicate that plasticity can facilitate invasion of novel habitats by exposing cryptic to selection, though maladaptive plasticity may constrain if not counteracted by genetic change.

Historical Development

Pre-Darwinian Theories

Ancient Greek philosophers proposed early concepts akin to differential survival. (c. 495–435 BCE) described a process where composite organisms formed randomly from elemental parts, with those possessing functional adaptations persisting while maladapted forms perished, anticipating variation and selection by fitness. (c. 99–55 BCE), in , elaborated on atomic swerves producing slight deviations in offspring, positing that nature's trial-and-error eliminated unfit variants through environmental pressures, allowing viable forms to propagate. In the , (c. 776–869 CE), in Kitab al-Hayawan (Book of Animals, c. 850 CE), outlined a among for resources, where stronger or better-suited organisms prevailed, and environmental factors induced heritable changes favoring survival, such as variations in strength or . These ideas emphasized competition and adaptation but lacked a mechanism for gradual, population-level change. During the Enlightenment, Pierre-Louis Moreau de Maupertuis (1698–1759) in Vénus Physique (1745) suggested that random particle arrangements in embryos produced variations, with natural elimination of deleterious ones preserving useful traits across generations, an early nod to chance variation and selective retention. (1731–1802), Charles Darwin's grandfather, in Zoonomia (1794–1796) argued that all life descended from a single filament, with habits and environmental necessities driving progressive complexity, and implied that vigorous individuals outcompeted weaker ones in propagation, though framed within vitalist and Lamarckian influences rather than strict selection. Closer to Charles Darwin's formulation, William Charles Wells (1757–1818) in an 1813 essay to the Royal Society described selection acting on variations, where darker pigmentation conferred survival advantages against sun exposure in tropical climates, leading to its prevalence through differential reproduction of fitter variants—explicitly termed a akin to artificial selection in nature. Patrick Matthew (1790–1874), in the 1831 appendix to On Naval Timber and , articulated "the natural means of selection" whereby, amid resource scarcity and competition, superior adapted varieties supplanted inferior ones, resulting in species divergence or , particularly post-catastrophic recovery. These pre-Darwinian notions grasped elements of variation, struggle, and differential perpetuation but generally failed to integrate them with Malthusian , particulate , or cumulative over , rendering them fragmentary rather than a cohesive explanatory framework.

Darwin's Original Formulation

Charles Darwin presented his theory of natural selection in On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life, first published on November 24, 1859, by John Murray in London, with an initial print run of 1,250 copies that sold out on the day of release. The book's core mechanism explained evolution as descent with modification, where species arise from common ancestors through gradual accumulation of favorable traits over generations. Darwin's formulation built on observations from his 1831–1836 voyage aboard HMS Beagle, particularly Galápagos finches showing adaptive variation, combined with insights from geology and economics. The theory rested on four key postulates derived from empirical observations: first, individuals within a exhibit heritable variation in traits; second, populations produce more offspring than can survive to reproductive age, leading to for limited resources; third, and are not random but depend on trait advantages in specific environments; and fourth, over time, advantageous traits increase in frequency, modifying the . Darwin termed this process "natural selection," analogous to artificial selection by breeders, where nature preserves variations conferring slight advantages in the "." He emphasized , rejecting sudden leaps, and supported it with evidence from , , , and vestigial structures, arguing against . Influences included Thomas Malthus's 1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population, which highlighted exponential population growth checked by arithmetic resource increase, inspiring Darwin in September 1838 to recognize differential survival as the driver of selection. Charles Lyell's (1830–1833) provided uniformitarian views of slow, cumulative earth changes, aligning with Darwin's gradual evolutionary timeline. The theory's public debut followed joint presentation with Alfred Russel Wallace's similar manuscript at the Linnean Society on July 1, 1858, prompting Darwin to publish his long-developed ideas. Darwin lacked a particulate inheritance mechanism, assuming blending inheritance where offspring traits averaged parental ones, potentially diluting variations—a puzzle he addressed later with pangenesis in The Variation of Animals and Plants Under Domestication (1868). Despite this gap, the formulation causally linked , variation, , and differential to adaptive change, revolutionizing by providing a materialistic alternative to teleological or creationist explanations.

Integration with Genetics: The Modern Synthesis


The Modern Synthesis, also termed the neo-Darwinian synthesis, emerged in the 1930s and 1940s as a unification of Charles Darwin's theory of natural selection with Gregor Mendel's particulate inheritance and emerging population genetics. This framework resolved longstanding issues, such as the apparent erosion of heritable variation under blending inheritance, by demonstrating that Mendelian genes maintain discrete variation amenable to selective pressures. Population genetic models quantified evolution as shifts in allele frequencies within populations, with natural selection acting as the primary directive force alongside mutation, genetic drift, migration, and recombination.
Foundational mathematical contributions came from Ronald A. Fisher, , and in the 1920s and early 1930s. Fisher's 1918 analysis showed that even weak selection on numerous small mutations could yield substantial adaptive change over generations, countering skepticism about . His 1930 book, The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, formalized how selection restores genetic variance lost to recombination, enabling directional toward fitness optima. Haldane's work, including his 1924 paper on selection intensities, calculated rates of substitution under selection, while Wright's shifting balance theory incorporated drift and subdivision to explain peaks in adaptive landscapes. These models proved that natural selection efficiently amplifies advantageous alleles, bridging microevolutionary change to macroevolutionary patterns observed in fossils. Theodosius Dobzhansky's 1937 book Genetics and the Origin of Species empirically integrated these ideas by applying genetic analysis to Drosophila populations, illustrating how chromosomal inversions, hybrid sterility, and balancing selection contribute to speciation under natural conditions. Ernst Mayr's 1942 Systematics and the Origin of Species extended the synthesis to taxonomy, advocating the biological species concept—groups reproductively isolated in sympatry—and emphasizing geographic isolation as a driver of divergence via selection and drift. Julian Huxley's 1942 Evolution: The Modern Synthesis synthesized these threads, coining the term and incorporating paleontological evidence from George Gaylord Simpson to affirm gradualism across timescales. Botanist G. Ledyard Stebbins further bolstered the framework with polyploidy studies showing rapid speciation mechanisms. By framing as gene-frequency dynamics, the Modern Synthesis provided a causal mechanism for : heritable phenotypic variation arises from genotypic diversity, with differential reproduction favoring alleles enhancing survival and fecundity in specific environments. This particulate view preserved variation indefinitely, unlike blending models, allowing cumulative selection to sculpt without invoking directed or Lamarckian . Empirical validation came from lab experiments and field data, confirming selection's role in shifting distributions, though later extensions acknowledged drift's potency in small populations. The synthesis thus established natural selection as sufficient for evolutionary explanation, marginalizing saltationist or orthogenetic alternatives.

Contemporary Extensions and Syntheses

The Extended Evolutionary Synthesis (EES) builds on the Modern Synthesis by integrating developmental biases, reciprocal organism-environment interactions, and non-genetic inheritance as generative forces in evolution, alongside natural selection. Formulated in the 2010s by researchers including Kevin Laland and Marc Feldman, the EES challenges the Modern Synthesis's emphasis on external selection acting on random genetic variation, proposing instead that endogenous processes like phenotypic accommodation and plasticity actively shape evolvability and adaptive landscapes. Empirical support includes observations of plastic responses in organisms such as water fleas (Daphnia), where predator-induced morphology persists across generations via maternal effects, altering selective pressures in ways not fully captured by gene-frequency models. This framework predicts testable outcomes, such as faster evolutionary rates in niche-altering species, validated in simulations and fossil records of human-induced domestication. Niche construction theory, a core EES component, describes how organisms modify their environments, creating feedbacks that influence selection on themselves and other species, thus extending natural selection to include organism-driven causal loops. Introduced formally by John Odling-Smee, Kevin Laland, and Marcus Feldman in 2003, it posits ecological inheritance—transmitted modified niches—as an evolutionary process comparable to genetic inheritance. For example, earthworms' burrowing enriches nutrients, favoring traits and reciprocally selecting for worm dispersal abilities, as shown in long-term field experiments where constructed niches accelerated fixation by 20-50% over neutral models. Quantitative models demonstrate that such construction can stabilize polymorphisms or drive , particularly in sedentary species, with evidence from coral reefs where algal modifications sustain assemblages under changing climates. Evolutionary developmental biology (evo-devo) elucidates how developmental gene regulatory networks constrain and canalize variation, providing structured phenotypic possibilities for natural selection rather than isotropic mutation. Emerging in the 1990s with discoveries of conservation across phyla, evo-devo reveals mechanisms like cis-regulatory evolution enabling modular trait changes without pleiotropic costs. In stickleback fish, regulatory shifts in Pitx1 genes, dated to post-glacial invasions around 10,000 years ago, rapidly produced armored phenotypes under freshwater selection, illustrating how developmental bias accelerates adaptation beyond point mutations. across s confirms that toolkit genes generate discrete morphological jumps, aligning with fossil transitions like arthropod limb diversification during the approximately 540 million years ago. Multilevel selection theory formalizes natural selection operating simultaneously across biological hierarchies—genes, cells, individuals, groups—where group-level benefits can outweigh individual costs if inter-group dominates. and Elliott Sober's 1994 partition of fitness variance into within- and between-group components provides a mathematical basis, with Price's extended to multilevel contexts showing net group selection when between-group fitness differences exceed intra-group variation by factors observed in microbial biofilms. Experimental validation includes bacterial cultures where cooperative producers outcompete cheaters at the metapopulation level, as in Pseudomonas fluorescens evolving public-good traits under spatial structuring, with group extinction rates driving 30-40% higher cooperation prevalence after 100 generations. In primates, in callitrichids correlates with multilevel dynamics, where kin-group survival advantages persist despite individual energetic costs, supported by phylogenetic analyses spanning 25 million years. These extensions remain debated, with proponents citing empirical anomalies in evolvability—like rapid radiations unexplained by gradualism—as evidence for synthesis expansion, while skeptics maintain that and extended phenotypes within the Modern Synthesis suffice without . Nonetheless, genomic data from projects like the 1000 Genomes reveal regulatory and structural variants aligning with EES predictions, suggesting ongoing refinement of selection's causal scope.

Types and Modes of Selection

By Effect on Traits: Directional, Stabilizing, and Disruptive

Natural selection modifies the distribution of quantitative traits in based on how fitness varies with . shifts the population mean toward one extreme when environmental pressures favor phenotypes deviating from the current average, as seen in responses to novel conditions like changes. favors intermediate phenotypes, reducing variance around the mean by selecting against extremes, often in stable environments where deviations incur fitness costs. acts against intermediates, promoting extremes and potentially leading to bimodal distributions or polymorphism, though it is rarer in nature. Directional selection occurs when fitness increases monotonically with trait value in one direction, causing the population mean to evolve toward the favored extreme over generations. This mode is prevalent in changing environments, such as during droughts where larger sizes in conferred higher survival by accessing harder seeds, resulting in a measurable shift in average beak depth. Empirical studies across wild populations indicate gradients average about 0.2-0.3 standard deviations per generation, driving in traits like body size in plants under stress. In agricultural contexts, repeated in breeding programs has intensified traits like yield in crops, demonstrating its efficacy over multiple generations. Stabilizing selection maintains the population mean while eroding variance, as fitness peaks at an intermediate optimum and declines for deviations. A classic example is birth weight, where infants around 3-4 kg have the lowest , with extremes associated with higher risks; data from mid-20th century cohorts showed stabilizing gradients reducing variance by selecting against low- and high-weight births. In stable habitats, this mode preserves adaptive peaks, as evidenced in populations where intermediate body sizes optimize predation avoidance and efficiency. Reviews of phenotypic selection in find stabilizing selection less common than directional but significant in traits under consistent pressures, with gradients often concave down in fitness-phenotype regressions. Disruptive selection favors phenotypes at both extremes of a trait distribution, reducing fitness of intermediates and potentially fostering or . This is observed in African finches with bill sizes adapted to either large hard seeds or small soft seeds, where medium bills yield lower feeding efficiency, leading to higher variance in bill morphology. In , disruptive selection on seed size can occur in heterogeneous soils favoring either large seeds for nutrient-poor sites or small for dispersal advantages. Field data reveal disruptive selection is infrequent, comprising under 10% of measured cases, but strong where present, often in polymorphic populations or during ecological shifts. Mathematical models show it increases genetic variance, potentially splitting populations if reinforces extremes.

By Unit of Selection: Individual, Kin, Group, and Multilevel

Natural selection primarily operates at the level of the organism, where traits that enhance an individual's relative —measured as differential survival and reproduction compared to others in the —are favored over generations. This genic or organismal perspective posits that adaptations evolve because they increase the propagation of genes within individuals that possess them, with the individual serving as the primary target of selection pressures such as predation, resource scarcity, or mate competition. Empirical support for individual selection is foundational to , as demonstrated in numerous studies of trait variation, such as beak size in , where individual birds with heritable advantages in efficiency produced more offspring, leading to population-level shifts. Kin selection extends individual selection to explain altruistic behaviors, where an individual incurs a fitness cost to benefit relatives sharing genes by descent, thereby promoting the indirect propagation of shared genes via . Formulated by in 1964, this mechanism is encapsulated in Hamilton's rule (rB > C), where r is the genetic relatedness between actor and recipient, B is the fitness benefit to the recipient, and C is the fitness cost to the actor; the rule predicts altruism evolves when the inclusive fitness gain exceeds the direct loss. A 2014 meta-analysis of over 100 studies across taxa confirmed Hamilton's rule holds in diverse contexts, including in insects and in birds and mammals, with violations rare and attributable to unmeasured factors like greenbeard effects or assortment beyond relatedness. Kin selection reconciles apparent conflicts with individual-level by showing altruism as a form of extended through shared , though critics note it assumes precise relatedness estimation and can overlap mathematically with other models. Group selection, the idea that natural selection acts directly on groups of organisms—favoring groups with traits beneficial to collective survival even if costly to individuals—gained early traction but faced sharp critique for lacking empirical rigor and being vulnerable to subversion by selfish individuals within groups. George C. Williams in argued that group-level adaptations are illusory, as within-group selection typically overwhelms between-group effects unless groups are highly isolated and structured; he emphasized that traits like or toward non-kin cannot stably evolve at the group level without reducing to individual or kin benefits. This view dominated for decades, with models showing group selection requires implausibly low migration and high group rates to overpower individual-level dynamics. Multilevel selection (MLS) theory reframes the debate by integrating selection across hierarchical levels—genes, individuals, groups, and beyond—positing that traits can evolve if between-level fitness differentials (e.g., group productivity) exceed within-level variation, formalized in price equation partitions. Proposed rigorously by Elliott Sober and in 1998, MLS accommodates as a special case of structured groups (high relatedness reduces within-group conflict) while allowing for non-kin group benefits in partitioned populations, such as microbial biofilms or human cooperation. includes microbial experiments where cooperator-defector dynamics yield group-level outcomes only under spatial structuring, and studies showing multilevel effects on social foraging. However, MLS remains contentious, with equivalence theorems demonstrating it often yields identical predictions to kin or individual models under weak assumptions, prompting debates on whether it adds explanatory power or merely shifts perspective without altering core genic . Proponents argue MLS better captures real-world and major transitions like multicellularity, where group-level selection suppresses individual defection, but skeptics maintain it risks conflating correlation with causation absent direct tests of level-specific variance.

By Resources and Contexts: Sexual, Ecological, and Fluctuating

represents a context of natural selection focused on access to mates, distinct from -based pressures, where traits enhancing —often at a survival cost—predominate through intrasexual competition or intersexual . formalized this mechanism in The Descent of Man (1871), positing it as complementary to natural selection for explaining ornate traits like the peacock's train, which females prefer despite its hindrance to escape from predators. Empirical studies confirm sexual selection elevates mean fitness by reducing variance in key traits, particularly benefiting female offspring in experimental populations. In guppies (Poecilia reticulata), male coloration intensifies under low-predation conditions via female preference, correlating with higher mating rates but increased visibility to predators. Ecological selection arises from interactions with abiotic and biotic environmental factors, such as resource availability, predation, and structure, favoring phenotypes that optimize and resource acquisition in specific niches. In on the , beak depth varies adaptively with seed hardness, which fluctuates with El Niño-driven rainfall; during droughts in 1977 and 2004, selection shifted toward deeper beaks for cracking larger seeds, with estimates around 0.7 enabling rapid . This process underscores how ecological pressures, including for limited food resources, drive trait divergence across islands, as documented in long-term monitoring since 1973 showing advantages of 10-20% for matched sizes. Fluctuating selection occurs when environmental conditions vary temporally or spatially, imposing oscillating pressures that maintain genetic polymorphism rather than fixing a single optimum. For instance, in climatic variability, selection on phenological traits like flowering time in reverses across wet and dry cycles, preserving allelic diversity as evidenced by genomic scans in wild populations. In water fleas, predator-induced helmet formation is favored in high-risk seasons but costly otherwise, leading to cyclical shifts with amplitudes up to 50% over generations. Such dynamics enhance evolvability, with meta-analyses linking higher standing variation under fluctuation to greater macroevolutionary divergence rates across taxa. Unlike , fluctuating regimes prevent trait fixation, as modeled by temporal in fitness where short-term oscillations sustain bet-hedging strategies.

Empirical Evidence and Observation

Laboratory and Experimental Demonstrations

Laboratory experiments provide controlled settings to observe natural selection directly, isolating variables like heritable variation, differential survival, and under imposed pressures. These setups enable replication and precise measurement of evolutionary changes over generations, often in microbes due to rapid rates. The long-term evolution experiment (LTEE) with , initiated by Richard Lenski in 1988, exemplifies bacterial adaptation. Twelve initially identical asexual populations have undergone over 75,000 generations in a glucose-limited medium, with daily transfers selecting for faster growth. All populations increased in fitness by 2- to 3-fold relative to the ancestor after 2,000 generations, measured via competition assays, demonstrating cumulative adaptation via natural selection. Around generation 31,000 in one population, a enabling aerobic citrate utilization arose, conferring a growth advantage in the post-glucose phase and spreading rapidly under selection. Genomic analyses revealed parallel mutations in key loci across populations, underscoring selection's role in fixing beneficial variants. Antibiotic resistance evolution in serves as a straightforward lab demonstration of selection. In controlled assays, susceptible populations exposed to sublethal show and proliferation of pre-existing resistant mutants, with resistance frequencies rising from 10^{-6} to near fixation within days. The mega-plate experiment visualizes spatial gradients of increasing resistance, where migrate outward, evolving stepwise resistance to multiple drugs over hours, directly observable as expanding rings of growth. In eukaryotes, selection experiments illustrate trait-specific adaptation. Laboratory lines selected for high bristle number over dozens of generations showed heritable increases, with realized heritability around 0.2-0.3, confirming selection on polygenic variation. Recent studies using pooled sequencing tracked allele frequency shifts under novel stressors, revealing rapid fixation of adaptive variants within months. Yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) experiments demonstrate selection in sexual and asexual contexts. In one setup, populations evolved under selection formed multicellular clusters up to 20,000 times larger than single cells after thousands of generations, with selection favoring aggregate formation for faster settling and survival. evolution (ALE) protocols in yeast have optimized traits like tolerance, with fitness gains of 20-50% via targeted , quantifiable through growth rate assays. These findings highlight selection's efficacy in driving functional innovations under lab-imposed regimes.

Field Studies and Natural Populations

Field studies of natural selection in wild populations have documented trait shifts driven by differential survival and reproduction in response to environmental pressures. A prominent example involves the (Geospiza fortis) on Daphne Major Island in the Galápagos, studied by since 1973. During a severe from 1976 to 1977, the finch population declined from approximately 1,200 to 90 breeding adults, with survivors exhibiting deeper beaks better suited for cracking larger, harder seeds that dominated the food supply; the average beak depth in the subsequent generation increased by about 0.5 mm, or 4-5%, reflecting heritable selection. Similar patterns recurred during the 2003-2005 , where finches with smaller beaks survived better due to reliance on smaller seeds, demonstrating fluctuating selection tied to seed availability. These observations, combined with genetic analyses, confirm that natural selection acts rapidly on quantitative traits like beak morphology in response to climatic variation. In Britain, the (Biston betularia) exemplifies selection via predation during industrialization. Prior to the mid-19th century, the light-colored typica form predominated, but by 1898 in polluted , the dark melanic carbonaria form reached 95% frequency due to superior against soot-darkened trees, where birds preferentially predated lighter moths. Bernard Kettlewell's 1950s mark-release-recapture experiments in polluted and clean forests quantified this, showing 50% higher recapture rates for moths matching local bark coloration, implying a selection coefficient against mismatched forms of around 0.3 in polluted habitats. Subsequent field confirmations, including Michael Majerus's 2000s observations, reported daily predation selection against melanics of s ≈ 0.1 in post-pollution woodlands, aligning with the decline of carbonaria to under 1% by the 2000s as air quality improved. These shifts track pollution levels, underscoring predation as the causal mechanism, though early experiments faced methodological critiques regarding moth placement. Human-induced pressures have also driven observable selection in large mammals. In , , intense ivory poaching from 1977 to 1992 selectively removed tusked elephants, elevating tuskless female frequency from 15-20% pre-poaching to 51% by 2000; genetic mapping links this to an X-chromosome variant suppressing tusk development, with tuskless females producing twice as many tuskless daughters, indicating strong heritable selection (s > 0.5 against tusked females). Comparable trends appear in other poached populations, where tusk size has declined and tusklessness risen, contrasting with stable low rates (2-6%) in unpoached areas. Transplant experiments with Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) reveal predation's role in color evolution. In high-predation downstream streams, males exhibit subdued orange and black spots to evade visual hunters like pike cichlids, whereas low-predation upstream sites feature brighter patterns; reciprocal introductions by John Endler in the 1980s showed transplanted high-predation guppies developing increased color in predator-free pools within two years (less than four generations), with spot number rising 1.5-fold, attributable to relaxed predation and . These field manipulations isolate natural selection's directional effects on male ornaments, with estimates around 0.4-0.6 for color traits. Such studies, spanning insects, birds, fish, and mammals, demonstrate natural selection's operation across taxa and timescales in unconstrained wild settings, often quantified via selection gradients and confirmed by genetic inheritance, though interactions with and drift modulate outcomes in finite populations. Long-term monitoring reveals selection's variability, with strength fluctuating alongside environmental changes, as synthesized in meta-analyses of over 200 wild studies showing median s values of 0.1-0.3 for viability selection.

Genomic and Molecular Signatures

Genomic signatures of natural selection include patterns of reduced and distorted frequencies around loci under positive selection, contrasting with neutral expectations under the standard model. Selective sweeps occur when a beneficial rises rapidly in , dragging linked neutral variants to fixation and causing localized deficits in diversity (π) and heterozygosity. These sweeps can be "hard" (from a single ) or "soft" (from standing variation), with the former producing stronger signals of elevated . Statistical tests such as quantify deviations in the site frequency spectrum; negative values signal an excess of rare alleles consistent with recent sweeps, as common under purifying selection or population expansion alone but amplified by positive selection. Fu and Li's D and other similarly detect such imbalances, with power to identify sweeps even post-fixation, though confounded by demographic events like bottlenecks. In empirical scans, these metrics have revealed sweeps in species like , where genome-wide analyses show clustered reductions in diversity near adaptive loci. At protein-coding sites, the dN/dS ratio—nonsynonymous substitutions per nonsynonymous site divided by synonymous substitutions per synonymous site—exceeds 1 under positive selection, indicating adaptive fixation of changes over neutral synonymous ones. Codon-based models, such as those implemented in PAML, identify site-specific elevated dN/dS, as seen in viral genomes like dengue where genes like NS2A exhibit dN/dS ≈ 0.08 but with hotspots >1 signaling immune escape. In multicellular organisms, this metric detects selection in hominid lineages, with dN/dS >1 at genes influencing traits like olfaction and immunity, though genome-wide averages remain <1 due to pervasive negative selection. Additional signatures include excess divergence relative to polymorphism (McDonald-Kreitman test) and haplotype homozygosity peaks, as in human adaptations to high altitude where shows sweep-like patterns in Tibetans. Composite likelihood methods like SweepFinder enhance detection by modeling background variation, applied successfully to plant genomes revealing selection on phenology genes. These molecular footprints collectively substantiate natural selection's role in shaping genomic architecture, with recent deep learning approaches improving spatially resolved inference.

Limitations, Criticisms, and Alternative Explanations

Logical and Conceptual Critiques

Critics contend that natural selection embodies a logical tautology, wherein fitness is retrospectively defined by survival and reproductive success, reducing the core proposition—"the fittest survive"—to a circular and unfalsifiable statement devoid of empirical content. This formulation, exemplified by 's "survival of the fittest" (adopted by in later editions of On the Origin of Species, 1869), equates survivors with the fittest by definition, offering no independent criterion to predict or explain why particular traits confer advantage prior to observation. Philosopher Karl Popper articulated this issue in the mid-20th century, initially deeming natural selection a "metaphysical research programme" rather than a testable scientific theory, as its apparent tautological structure evades falsification: adaptations are inferred from outcomes, not vice versa. Popper's critique, drawn from works like Unended Quest (1976), highlighted how the theory's reliance on post-hoc rationalization—labeling survived variants as "favorable" without antecedent metrics—strips it of predictive power, akin to stating that "all observed events occur because they occurred." Conceptually, the fitness construct exacerbates these issues by conflating propensity (expected success under given conditions) with realized outcomes, permitting arbitrary redefinition to fit data and undermining causal explanation. Critics argue this renders natural selection non-causal, functioning as a descriptive filter rather than a directive force, incapable of specifying mechanisms beyond contingency and variation without invoking teleological implications it seeks to avoid. For instance, without predefined, heritable fitness differentials independent of survival, the theory struggles to distinguish selection from mere differential persistence, echoing broader philosophical concerns over its explanatory tautology.

Biological Constraints and Ineffectiveness

Natural selection operates within biological constraints that restrict the availability of heritable variation and the feasibility of adaptive phenotypes, thereby limiting its effectiveness in driving evolutionary change. Genetic constraints, such as pleiotropy—where a single gene influences multiple traits—often generate antagonistic effects that hinder the fixation of beneficial mutations. For instance, a mutation improving one fitness component may degrade another, reducing the net selective advantage and slowing adaptation, as demonstrated in Drosophila simulations where pleiotropic conflict diminished the efficacy of selection on life-history traits. Similarly, the genetic covariance matrix (G-matrix) can misalign with selection gradients due to unmeasured pleiotropic effects, underpredicting evolutionary responses and imposing barriers to trait optimization. Developmental constraints further impede natural selection by biasing or limiting phenotypic variation through the structure and dynamics of ontogeny. These include physical limits, such as diffusion laws preventing certain tissue formations (e.g., no wheeled appendages in multicellular organisms due to vascular and neural connectivity requirements), morphogenetic rules dictating construction patterns (e.g., vertebrate limb digits following specific growth sequences resistant to reversal), and phyletic legacies like the conserved pharyngula stage in chordates, which bottlenecks innovation in body plans. Empirical studies, including experimental perturbations in axolotl limbs, reveal that developmental modules produce non-random variant distributions, channeling evolution along permissible pathways while excluding others, even under strong selection. Consequently, selection cannot readily evolve traits outside these developmental "possibility spaces," as variation is canalized toward conserved outcomes, fostering evolutionary stasis or convergence rather than unrestricted adaptation. Physiological and metabolic trade-offs represent additional constraints, where resource allocation to one function compromises others, rendering selection ineffective for simultaneous optimization. For example, enhanced growth often trades against reproduction or immune function due to finite energy budgets, as modeled in organismal biology where such conflicts arise from metabolic network structures and limit diversification. These trade-offs, rooted in biophysical realities, cap evolutionary rates; quantitative bounds show that trait change under selection is delimited by standing genetic variance and fitness heterogeneity, preventing rapid shifts in complex systems. In aggregate, these constraints—genetic, developmental, and physiological—reveal natural selection's ineffectiveness in unconstrained optimization, as historical contingencies and internal organismal logic redirect or nullify selective pressures, prioritizing viability over ideal adaptation.

Interactions with Drift, Neutral Theory, and Non-Selective Forces

Genetic drift, the random fluctuation of allele frequencies due to sampling error in finite populations, operates independently of fitness differences and can counteract or mimic the effects of natural selection. In large populations, strong selection dominates by systematically increasing the frequency of advantageous alleles and reducing deleterious ones, but drift's influence intensifies in small populations where stochastic variance exceeds selective pressure, potentially leading to the fixation of mildly deleterious mutations or loss of beneficial variants. For instance, theoretical models demonstrate that when the product of effective population size (NeN_e) and selection coefficient (ss) is less than 1 (Nes<1N_es < 1), drift effectively neutralizes weak selection, allowing random processes to prevail. The neutral theory of molecular evolution, proposed by Motoo Kimura in 1968, posits that the majority of nucleotide substitutions observed in DNA sequences are due to the fixation of selectively neutral mutations via genetic drift rather than adaptive selection. This theory predicts a constant rate of molecular evolution approximating the neutral mutation rate, consistent with empirical observations of the molecular clock across taxa, and attributes most standing genetic variation within populations to a balance between mutation input and drift-mediated removal. However, neutral theory interacts with selection such that purifying selection efficiently eliminates strongly deleterious mutations, confining neutrality to synonymous sites or non-functional regions, while positive selection accelerates divergence at adaptive loci, as evidenced by elevated nonsynonymous substitution rates (dN/dS>1d_N/d_S > 1) in those areas. Extending neutral theory, Tomoko Ohta's nearly neutral theory (1973) incorporates slightly deleterious mutations, arguing that their effective neutrality depends on population size: in small populations, drift fixes these mutations more readily than in large ones where selection purges them, leading to population-size-dependent evolutionary rates. This framework resolves discrepancies between neutral predictions and observations of slower protein evolution in vertebrates (with smaller NeN_e) compared to invertebrates, as mildly deleterious alleles segregate longer under drift but accumulate less under stronger relative selection in larger populations. Empirical support comes from comparative genomics showing correlations between NeN_e estimates and the efficiency of purifying selection, with drift-barrier effects limiting adaptability in bottlenecked taxa. Non-selective forces like and migration further modulate selection's outcomes by introducing or redistributing . Mutation generates novel alleles at a baseline rate (typically 10810^{-8} to 10910^{-9} per site per generation in eukaryotes), countering selection's tendency to fix alleles and deplete diversity, but excessive mutation loads can overwhelm purifying selection in small populations. via migration homogenizes allele frequencies across demes, potentially swamping local adaptations by introducing maladapted alleles against divergent selection, though moderate levels can enhance evolvability by bolstering variation; quantitative models show that high migration rates reduce the scope for selection-driven divergence unless counterbalanced by strong habitat-specific fitness differences. Genomic scans reveal these interactions through patterns like reduced differentiation (F_ST) at neutral loci due to drift and flow, contrasted with elevated signals of selection at functional sites. Overall, while selection drives adaptive change, its efficacy is contingent on the relative strengths of these stochastic and variational forces, with drift and neutrality explaining much non-adaptive .

Broader Evolutionary Role and Applications

In Speciation and Macroevolution

Natural selection contributes to speciation by driving adaptive divergence that results in reproductive isolation between populations. In allopatric speciation, geographic separation allows selection to favor locally adapted traits, reducing gene flow upon secondary contact through prezygotic or postzygotic barriers. Sympatric speciation occurs when disruptive selection on ecological traits, such as resource preferences, leads to assortative mating and isolation without geographic barriers. Empirical examples include speciation in cichlid fishes of the , where natural selection on morphological traits related to feeding and use has produced over 1,000 from few ancestors in less than 15 million years, with genomic scans revealing selection signatures at loci underlying trophic adaptations. Similarly, three-spined sticklebacks exhibit of freshwater forms from marine ancestors, driven by selection against maladaptive marine alleles, leading to via mate preference and hybrid inviability. In , natural selection powers adaptive , enabling rapid diversification of lineages into novel ecological niches following ecological opportunity, such as mass or island colonization. For instance, placental mammals underwent a radiation after the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction around 66 million years ago, with selection favoring traits like enhanced sensory capabilities and locomotion that facilitated exploitation of vacant niches, resulting in the origin of major orders. Fossil records of fish radiations, such as spiny-rayed teleosts, show morphological innovations correlated with ecological shifts under selective pressures. While natural selection explains the adaptive basis of patterns, its efficacy in generating complex innovations is debated, with critics noting that microevolutionary changes observed in labs or short-term studies do not directly demonstrate the origin of higher taxa, and constraints like genetic correlations or developmental limits may hinder extrapolation. Nonetheless, phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that selection on heritable variation accounts for directional trends in traits across , such as increasing body size in certain clades, though neutral processes like drift contribute to neutral divergence. Peer-reviewed syntheses affirm selection's role but emphasize integration with , , and contingency for comprehensive macroevolutionary explanations.

Human Evolution, Culture, and Recent Adaptations

Natural selection has shaped through adaptations to diverse environments, diets, and pathogens, with genomic evidence revealing accelerated positive selection over the past 10,000 years coinciding with , migration, and . These changes include variants enhancing survival in specific ecological niches, such as the allele (LCT -13910T), which arose around 7,500–10,000 years ago in pastoralist populations in and , allowing adults to digest from and providing a nutritional advantage amid variable food availability. Selection coefficients for this allele have been estimated at 0.05–0.15 in early herding societies, reflecting strong fitness benefits from dairy consumption. Similarly, in high-altitude regions, Tibetans show positive selection on the EPAS1 gene, introgressed from Denisovans approximately 40,000 years ago, which downregulates production to mitigate excessive proliferation and associated cardiovascular risks at elevations above 4,000 meters. This adaptation contrasts with Andean populations' reliance on EGLN1 variants for regulation, highlighting under hypoxia but via distinct genetic paths. Gene-culture coevolution illustrates how human cultural practices generate novel selection pressures, amplifying genetic responses. The spread of dairying in the Neolithic era, for instance, culturally expanded milk availability, favoring the 's fixation in frequencies up to 90% in northern European-descended groups while remaining rare elsewhere without pastoral traditions. also selected for alleles conferring resistance to zoonotic diseases and famine, such as those in the () for digestion, which increased copy numbers in farming populations post-10,000 BCE. Cultural transmission of technologies like cooking reduced selection on robust jaws, contributing to craniofacial reductions observed in fossils, while social norms around and may have indirectly influenced and allele frequencies for immune genes like HLA. These interactions demonstrate not as a mere byproduct but as a causal driver reshaping genetic landscapes, with models showing bidirectional feedbacks where advantageous genes enhance cultural capacities, such as lactose-tolerant groups sustaining larger herds. In contemporary populations, natural selection continues via differential , though modulated by medical interventions that relax pressures on lethal traits. Genome-wide analyses identify ongoing selection at loci influencing , with polygenic scores for reproductive traits correlating with higher numbers; for example, variants near FADS genes, involved in , show signatures of recent selection tied to modern diets and . resistance remains a key force, as MHC diversity maintains defense, with heterozygote advantages persisting despite —evidenced by clinal variation in HLA alleles matching historical infection gradients. Differential linked to and suggests selection for alleles associated with delayed reproduction and fewer , potentially shifting frequencies of cognitive-related variants, though estimates indicate weak net selection gradients (around 0.01–0.02) in high-income societies. and global migration introduce new pressures, such as selection against diabetes-predisposing alleles in low-glycemic traditional diets now mismatched with processed foods, underscoring persistent evolutionary dynamics amid cultural dominance.

Practical Impacts in Agriculture, Medicine, and Beyond

In , artificial selection, which parallels natural selection by favoring heritable traits under human-imposed pressures, has dramatically enhanced crop and productivity. For instance, has increased milk yield in by up to 400% over the past century through targeted reproduction of high-producing individuals, though this has also led to health issues like reduced fertility due to correlated genetic trade-offs. Similarly, corn varieties have been bred for higher yields and drought resistance, contributing to global gains, such as the tripling of U.S. corn production per acre from 1940 to 2020 via iterative selection cycles. In medicine, natural selection drives the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacterial populations, where random mutations conferring survival advantages under drug exposure become prevalent. Peer-reviewed studies document how antibiotics impose strong selective pressures, yielding repeatable resistance trajectories; for example, Escherichia coli exposed to ampicillin rapidly evolves efflux pumps or enzymatic degradation, with resistance frequencies rising from 10^{-8} to near fixation within days in lab populations. This process, observed since the 1940s introduction of penicillin, has rendered once-effective drugs obsolete, with multidrug-resistant strains like MRSA causing over 80,000 invasive infections annually in the U.S. as of 2019, underscoring the need for evolutionary-informed stewardship to minimize selection pressures. Beyond these fields, principles of natural selection inform strategies to delay resistance in pests and pathogens, such as rotating pesticides to reduce selective sweeps, which has extended the efficacy of insecticides like pyrethroids by factors of 2-5 in programs. In , applying evolutionary thinking aids in managing adaptive responses to environmental changes; for example, forecasting selection on fish populations under harvest pressure has led to size-limit regulations that preserve and sustain yields, as evidenced by recovering stocks in the following 1990s reforms. These applications highlight how anticipating selection dynamics enhances outcomes in and , countering unintended evolutionary feedbacks.

References

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