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Populism
Populism
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Populism is a contested concept[1][2] for a variety of political stances that emphasize the idea of the "common people", often in opposition to a perceived elite.[3] It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment.[4] The term developed in the late 19th century and has been applied to various politicians, parties, and movements since that time, often assuming a pejorative tone. Within political science and other social sciences, different definitions of populism have been employed.[3][5]

Etymology and terminology

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The term "populism" has long been subject to mistranslation. Further, the term has also been used to describe a broad (and often contradictory) array of movements and beliefs. Its usage has spanned continents and contexts, leading many scholars to characterize it as a vague or overstretched concept, widely invoked in political discourse, yet inconsistently defined and poorly understood.[6] Against this backdrop, numerous studies have examined the term's usage and diffusion across media, politics, and academic scholarship, highlighting the reciprocal influence among these spheres and tracing the semantic shifts that have shaped the evolving meaning of the concept.[7][8]

Origins and early political uses

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The word first appeared in English in 1858, where it was used as an antonym for "aristocratic" in a translation of a work by Alphonse de Lamartine.[9] In the Russian Empire of the 1860s and 1870s, the term was associated with the narodniki, a left-leaning agrarian movement whose name is often translated as "populists".[10] Russian populism in the late 19th century aimed to transfer political power to the peasant communes[disambiguation needed] through a radical program of agrarian reform, and would constitute a breeding ground influencing the Russian revolutions.[11] In English, however, the term gained broader prominence through its use by the U.S.-based People's Party and its predecessors, active between the 1880s and early 1900s.[12] The People's Party championed small-scale farmers, advocating for expansionist monetary policies and accessible credit, and was relatively progressive — for its time — on issues concerning women's and minority rights.[13] Although both the Russian and American movements have been labeled "populist", they differed in their ideological content and historical trajectory.[14]

In the early 20th century, particularly in France, the term shifted into the realm of literature, where it came to designate a genre of novel that sympathetically portrayed the lives of the lower classes.[15][16] Léon Lemonnier published a manifesto for the genre in 1929, and Antonine Coullet-Tessier established a prize for it in 1931.[17]

The term entered the Latin American political lexicon in the post-war period, becoming a defining feature of the region's political landscape.[18] It was initially associated in the media with charismatic leaders capable of mobilizing recently urbanized populations, particularly those displaced by rural migration. These new urban groups, increasingly integrated into electoral politics, were seen as escaping older systems of clientelist control such as "halter voting" (voto de cabresto or voto cantado) and began to redefine national political life. Although often viewed with suspicion and associated with manipulation or demagoguery, populism in this context frequently carried a positive connotation and was openly embraced by political actors.[19]

Academic adoption and conceptual drift

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Until the 1950s, use of the term populism in academia remained restricted largely to historians studying the People's Party. In 1954, however, two pivotal publications marked a turning point in the conceptual development of the term. In the United States, analyzing the rise of McCarthyism, sociologist Edward Shils published an article proposing populism as a term to describe anti-elite trends in US society more broadly.[20][21] Simultaneously in Brazil, political scientist Hélio Jaguaribe, responding to the country's emerging "populist hype" in the press, published what is considered the first academic text on Latin American populism, framing it as a form of class conciliation.[22][18]

Following Shils’ intervention, the 1960s saw populism gain increasing traction among US sociologists and other academics in the social sciences.[23] Notably, historian Richard Hofstadter and sociologist Daniel Bell reinterpreted the legacy of the People's Party through a critical lens, portraying it as an expression of status anxiety and irrationalism.[24][25] A parallel trend unfolded in Latin America, where scholars—often influenced by Marxist frameworks—began to investigate populism as a political phenomenon tied to modernization, mass mobilization, and developmentalist ideologies. Despite the growing interest, scholarly consensus on the definition of populism remained elusive. Notably, a 1967 conference at the London School of Economics that brought together many of the era's leading experts failed to produce a unified theoretical framework.[26][27]

The convergence of new—and often contested—academic interpretations with the use of the term by political forces critical of those labeled as populists has contributed to its increasingly negative connotation. The absence of a coherent ideological platform or consistent programmatic formulation among self-proclaimed populists, combined with the lack of a coordinated international movement, has further enabled the term to vary widely in meaning.[28] As a result, populism has come to be applied across a broad range of political contexts and figures, often without clear or consistent definition.[29] The term has often been conflated with other concepts like demagoguery,[30] and generally presented as something to be feared and discredited.[31] It has often been applied as a catchword to movements that are considered to be outside the political mainstream or a threat to democracy.[32]

The populist hype and scholarly debate

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Although scholars had already observed that populism was becoming a recurring feature of Western democracies by the early 1990s,[33][34] the term gained unprecedented global prominence following the political upheavals of 2016—most notably, the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States and the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union. Both events were widely interpreted as expressions of populist sentiment, sparking renewed public interest in the concept.[35][36] Reflecting this heightened attention, the Cambridge Dictionary selected "populism" as its Word of the Year in 2017.[37]

This so-called "populist hype" also found its counterpart in academia.[38] Whereas between 1950 and 1960 roughly 160 publications on populism were recorded, that number rose to over 1,500 between 1990 and 2000.[39][40] From 2000 to 2015, an average of 95 academic papers and books annually included the term "populism" in their title or abstract as catalogued by Web of Science. In 2016, that number climbed to 266; in 2017, it reached 488; and by 2018, it had grown to 615.[41]

The conceptual ambiguity surrounding the term—exacerbated by this spike in political and academic attention—has led some scholars to propose abandoning "populism" as an analytical category altogether. In particular, the frequent conflation of populism with far-right nativism has drawn criticism for misrepresenting the ethos of historical self-described populists,[13] while also providing a euphemistic gloss for racist or authoritarian political actors seeking legitimacy by claiming to represent "the people."[42][43][44]

In contrast, others argue that the concept remains too integral to political analysis to be discarded. If clearly defined, they contend, "populism" could be a valuable tool for understanding a broad range of political actors, especially those operating on the margins of mainstream politics.[45]

Theories

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Owing to the polysemy of the term ‘populism’, it has been variously interpreted across theoretical frameworks and associated with multiple, sometimes incompatible, definitions. Scholars differ sharply in their assessments of populism: while some define it as inherently anti-democratic, stressing its threats to liberal institutions and the rule of law,[46][47] others view it as an inherently democratic impulse aimed at empowering marginalized groups and restoring popular sovereignty.[48][49] Still others argue that populism can assume multiple and even contradictory facets depending on the context. Today, the main theoretical approaches to populism are the ideational, class-based, discursive, performative, strategic, and economic frameworks.

Ideational approaches

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The ideational approach defines populism as a "thin-centred ideology" that divides society into two antagonistic groups: "the pure people" and "the corrupt elite," and sees politics as an expression of the general will (volonté générale) of the people.[50][51][52] It positions populism not as a comprehensive ideology but one that attaches itself to broader political movements like socialism, or conservatism.[53][54][55] Scholars like Cas Mudde and Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser emphasize that populism is moralistic rather than programmatic, promoting a binary worldview that resists compromise.[56] This ideology is present across diverse political systems, is not limited to charismatic leadership, and can be employed flexibly to support a range of agendas on both the left and the right.[51][57]

According to ideational scholars, populism constructs "the people" as a virtuous and unified group, often with vague or shifting boundaries, allowing populist leaders to define inclusion or exclusion based on strategic goals.[53] This group is seen as sovereign and historically grounded, whose common sense is viewed as superior to elite expertise or institutional knowledge.[51] Conversely, "the elite" is portrayed as a homogeneous, corrupt force undermining the people's will. Depending on context, elites may be defined economically, politically, culturally, or even ethnically.[51] The concept of the general will is presented in the ideational approach as central to populist rhetoric, aligning with a critique of representative democracy in favor of direct forms of decision-making such as referendums.[51][53] This approach resonates with Rousseau's philosophical legacy, suggesting that only "the people" know what is best for society.[51][50]

Ideational scholars emphasize the ambivalent relationship between populism and democracy.[58] While they note that not all populists are authoritarian and recognize that populism can help redeem liberal democracy from its shortcomings when operating in opposition—by mobilizing social groups who feel excluded from political decision-making processes and by raising awareness among socio-political elites of popular grievances[59]—they generally contend that populism becomes inherently detrimental to pluralism once in power.[60][61] By often claiming to represent the authentic will of the people, populists—particularly those aligned with right-wing movements—bypass or actively undermine liberal democratic institutions designed to safeguard minority rights, most notably the judiciary and the media, which are frequently portrayed as disconnected from the populace.[62][63][64] This dynamic can be especially potent in contexts where the rule of law has weak institutional foundations, creating fertile ground for democratic backsliding.[65] In such cases, populist governance may give rise to what philosopher John Stuart Mill termed the "tyranny of the majority."[66]

The ideational definition is not without criticism. Some argue that it proceeds deductively, establishing a definition in advance and then applying it to cases in a way that imposes rigid assumptions—such as moral dualism and the homogeneity of "the people"—that may not hold empirically in all contexts.[67][68][69][70] Others caution that if broadly applied, the term risks becoming too vague, potentially encompassing most political discourse.[71]

Class-based approaches

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Class-based approaches interpret populism as a phenomenon rooted in social class dynamics. Latin American scholars such as Hélio Jaguaribe and Gino Germani were among the first to interpret populism as a mass-based phenomenon of political mobilization, characteristic of societies undergoing rapid modernization.[22][72] They emphasized features such as personalist leadership, the political incorporation of previously excluded social sectors, and institutional fragility—often accompanied by authoritarian tendencies.[73] In Germani's case, his theory of national-popular movements and the "authoritarianism of the popular classes" was developed in dialogue with American sociologist Seymour Martin Lipset.[74][75] Drawing in part on analyses of McCarthyism, Lipset argued that populism is a movement that unites various social classes, typically around a charismatic leader.[76] While noting that this characteristic also appears in fascism, Lipset emphasized a key distinction: fascism draws primarily from the middle classes, whereas populism finds its main social base among the poor.

A more explicitly class-oriented interpretation comes from the Marxist tradition, particularly influential in Latin America through thinkers such as Francisco Weffort, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Octavio Ianni.[77][78][79] Breaking with the sympathetic stance toward Russian populism found in the late writings of Karl Marx,[80] these Latin American Marxists drew instead on Marx's reflections on Bonapartism and Antonio Gramsci's concept of Caesarism. From this perspective, populism arises in moments of equilibrium between antagonistic classes—when the bourgeoisie has lost its hegemonic capacity but the proletariat has not yet seized power.[81] In such conditions, political power gains autonomy from dominant classes and positions itself as an arbiter, drawing support from what Marx termed the "mass": a disorganized group lacking class consciousness and vulnerable to charismatic leadership.

Marxist critics in Latin America acknowledged populism's role in integrating the popular masses into political life and fostering social and economic development. However, they argued that this integration was limited—proto-democratic in form but ultimately constrained within a bourgeois framework. Populist regimes, they contended, often demobilized collective organization by substituting social benefits and labor reforms for class struggle, while subordinating trade unions to state control and electoral interests. These critiques have been challenged by historians who argue that the so-called populist period in Latin American history was in fact marked by a growing politicization of workers—one that may have posed a challenge to established political and economic interests.[82]

Discursive approaches

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The Argentine political theorist Ernesto Laclau developed a distinctive definition of populism, viewing it as a potentially positive force for emancipatory social change.

The discursive approach is most closely associated with Argentine political theorist Ernesto Laclau and other scholars of the so-called Essex School.[83] For Laclau, populism should be understood as a discursive logic in which a series of unmet demands coalesce around a symbol that names a popular movement in opposition to an elite. Although charismatic leaders are often the most common symbols of populist movements, the discursive approach maintains that populism can exist without this type of leadership.

Unlike the ideational approach, the discursive tradition does not necessarily view the opposition of the "bottom" against the "top" as moralistic. In contrast to the Marxist approach, it also criticizes what it sees as the idealization of an autonomous social class, as opposed to a manipulated mass.[81] From a constructivist perspective, Laclau and his followers argue that political subjects—and particularly an entity such as "the people"—are always radically contingent discursive constructions, capable of taking on various forms.[84]

Normatively, Laclau's definition of populism refrains from judging whether populism is inherently positive or negative.[85] However, it sets itself apart from previous approaches by regarding some populist experiences in power as genuinely democratizing. Building on this perspective, some scholars influenced by Laclau argue that populism is inherently emancipatory and pluralistic, and that authoritarian and nationalist movements often labeled as populist would be more accurately described as fascist.[86]

Performative/socio-cultural approaches

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The performative approach—also known as the socio-cultural approach and occasionally referred to as the stylistic approach—is often presented as a branch of the discursive approach. Its main exponents include Pierre Ostiguy, Benjamin Moffitt, and María Esperanza Casullo.[87][88][89][90] This approach views populism not as a fixed ideology but as a political style—a repertoire of symbolically mediated performances through which leaders construct and navigate power. Rather than focusing on what populists believe, this perspective highlights how they communicate and present themselves, encompassing rhetoric, gestures, body language, fashion, imagery, and staging. These aesthetic and performative elements are essential to how populism operates in practice.

Critiquing what it sees as excessive formalism in Laclau's theory, the performative approach emphasizes the theatrical and transgressive nature of populism. Populist actors often break with traditional norms and expectations of political behavior, embracing styles that are irreverent, culturally popular, and emotionally charged. Populism is thus seen as a performance that challenges the boundaries of "respectable" political discourse.

While some scholars focus on the performances of charismatic leaders, others emphasize the historical and social dimension of populist transgression, noting its capacity to mobilize marginalized sectors traditionally excluded from political life. The sudden entry of these groups into the public sphere is often experienced as disruptive or shocking.[91]

As with the discursive approach, advocates of the performative theory maintain that populism can, in some cases, express emancipatory potential.

Strategic approaches

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An additional framework has been described as the "political-strategic" approach. This applies the term populism to a political strategy in which a charismatic leader seeks to govern based on direct and unmediated connection with their followers.[92] Kurt Weyland defined this conception of populism as a political strategy employed by a personalist leader who governs throught direct, unmediated, uninstitutionalized support from large numbers of mostly unorganized followers.[93] According to this perspective, a populist strategy for winning and exerting state power stands in tension with democracy and the values of pluralism, open debate, and fair competition.[94][95]

A common criticism of the strategic approach is that, by focusing on leadership, this concept of populism does not allow for the existence of populist parties or populist social movements.[96] As a result, it overlooks historical cases often considered paradigmatic of populism, such as the US People's Party.[97] Furthermore, this approach may inadvertently reinforce popular perceptions of populism as a style of politics characterized by overly simplistic solutions to complex problems, delivered in an emotionally charged manner or through the promotion of short-term, unrealistic, and unsustainable policies.[98] While this usage may seem intuitively meaningful, some argue that it is difficult to apply empirically, since most political actors engage in slogans and rhetoric, and distinguishing between emotionally charged and rational arguments can be problematic. This phenomenon is more accurately described as demagogy or opportunism.

Economic approaches

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Closely related to the ideas of demagogy and opportunism, the socioeconomic definition of populism refers to a pattern of irresponsible economic policymaking, in which governments implement expansive public spending—typically financed by foreign loans—followed by inflationary crises and subsequent austerity measures.[99] This understanding gained prominence in the 1980s and 1990s through economists such as Rudiger Dornbusch, Jeffrey Sachs, and Sebastián Edwards, particularly in studies of Latin American economies.[100] It builds on earlier critiques by Argentine economist Marcelo Diamand, who argued that economies like Argentina experienced cyclical swings between unsustainable populist spending and excessive austerity.[101] Although Diamand critiqued both extremes, later U.S.-based economists largely abandoned his condemnation of austerity, instead framing it as a necessary corrective for economic instability.[101][102][103]

While still invoked by some economists and journalists—particularly in Latin America—this economic definition of populism remains relatively uncommon in the broader social sciences.[104] Critics argue that it reduces populism to left-wing economic mismanagement, overlooks the term's political and ideological dimensions, and fails to account for populist leaders who implemented neoliberal policies.[105] The term "populism" is often used in this context to stigmatize heterodox economic policies, thereby narrowing space for debate.

Possible causes

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Over the decades, and across various theoretical approaches, populism has been associated with massification and the dissolution of social bonds. Explanations for this process vary, pointing to economic, labor, and cultural transformations, along with their subjective consequences.[5]

Economic grievance

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The economic grievance thesis argues that economic factors have contributed to the formation of a 'left-behind' precariat marked by low job security, high inequality, and wage stagnation. On this account, the group would be more inclined to support populism.[106][107][108] Reasons for precarity vary: in the Global North, it has often been linked to a decline in living standards due to deindustrialization, economic liberalization, and deregulation, whereas in the Global South, it tends to follow a truncated process of upward mobility, in which workers emerge from extreme poverty but remain in unstable, low-quality employment and living conditions.[109] To account for these dynamics, some theories focus specifically on the effects of economic crises,[110][111] or inequality,[112] while others emphasize globalization's role in disrupting established labor markets and fueling economic dislocation.

Macro-level evidence suggests that resentment toward out­groups tends to rise during periods of economic hardship,[5][113] and economic crises have been associated with gains for far-right parties—entities frequently conflated with populist movements, though not necessarily synonymous.[114][115] However, micro-level studies have found only limited evidence linking individual economic grievances directly to support for populist candidates or parties.[5][107]

Modernization

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The modernization losers theory argues that certain aspects of transition to modernity have caused demand for populism. This argument was advanced in the 1950s by Hofstadter and other early revisionist scholars who examined the People's Party, interpreting their populism as a response to deep-seated cultural anxieties in the face of modern economic and social transformations. This anxiety manifested in a partial rejection of modernity—not against technology or progress itself, but against the perceived social and moral effects of modern capitalism and urbanization.[24] More recently, scholars have pointed to the anomie that followed industrialization, resulting in dissolution, fragmentation, and differentiation, which weakened the traditional ties of civil society and increased individualization.[116] Some analysts argue that such conditions—marked by fragmented identities and weak collective structures—now resemble the dynamics long observed in the Global South, where class fluidity, economic insecurity, and limited institutional integration have historically shaped populist politics.[117] Populism appeals to déclassé elements across all social strata,[77] offering a broad identity which gives sovereignty to the previously marginalized masses as "the people".[118]

Cultural backlash

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Another theory that connects the emergence of populism to transformations associated with modernity—though from a different angle—is the cultural backlash thesis.[5] Focusing specifically on the rise of far-right populism, Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart argue that such movements are a reaction to the growing prominence of postmaterialism in many developed countries, including the spread of feminism, multiculturalism, and environmentalism.[119] According to this view, the diffusion of new ideas and values gradually challenges established norms, eventually reaching a "tipping point" that provokes a backlash from segments of the population who previously held dominant social positions—particularly older, white, less-educated men—expressed through support for right-wing populism.[119] Some theories limit this argument to being a reaction to just the increase of ethnic diversity from immigration.[120] Such theories are particularly popular with sociologists and with political scientists studying industrial world and American politics.[5]

Empirical studies testing the cultural backlash thesis have produced mixed results.[120] While individual-level research shows strong links between sociocultural attitudes—such as views on immigration or racial resentment—and support for right-wing populist parties, macro-level analyses have not consistently found correlations between aggregate populist sentiment and electoral outcomes.[5] Nonetheless, political science and psychology research point to the significant role of group-based identity threats: individuals who feel their social group is under threat are more likely to back political actors who promise to protect its status and identity.[121][122] Although much of this work has focused on white identity politics, similar patterns are observed among other groups that perceive themselves as marginalized.[123][124]

Post-democracy

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Various authors have presented populism as a response, reaction, or symptom of post-democracy.[125] Post-democracy refers to a condition in which the formal institutions of liberal democracy—elections, parties, and representative government—continue to exist, but their functioning is increasingly dominated by elites, technocratic decision-making, and market forces.

Populism is therefore often understood as a reaction to the narrowing of political choice, the decline of responsive, representative governance, and the resulting gaps in political representation.[126] Scholars offer various explanations for this development. One perspective holds that these dynamics are especially pronounced in societies where civil society is weak or in decline—a condition that some scholars view as historically characteristic of the Global South, where populism has been more recurrent, but which is increasingly visible in the Global North as well.[117] Others emphasize the role of globalization, which is seen as having seriously limited the powers of national elites and constrained their capacity to respond to popular demands.[127] Another commonly cited factor is the convergence of mainstream parties, particularly those on the center-left and center-right, which often avoid addressing contentious or pressing public concerns.[5][128][129]

Authors have pointed out that the design of political systems can also influence the perception of distance between representatives and represented, and shape the conditions under which populism emerges. Low levels of political efficacy and high proportions of wasted votes are associated with increased support for populist alternatives.[130] In the United States, mechanisms such as gerrymandering, lobbying, and opaque campaign financing contribute to the perception that government is unresponsive to the majority. In the European Union, the transfer of policy authority to technocratic and supranational bodies—such as the European Central Bank—can distance decision-making from voters, further intensifying democratic disaffection.[131] Likewise, widespread corruption scandals can deepen the sense that political elites are self-serving and out of touch with ordinary citizens, which can increase support for populist movements.[111]

Media transformation

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Several scholars have linked the rise of populism to transformations in media and communication dynamics. Since the late 1960s, the spread of television has contributed to the personalization of politics, favoring charismatic leadership over party-centered politics—an approach frequently associated with populism.[132] Populist leaders have often made strategic use of mass media to cultivate a sense of direct connection with their audiences, relying on unfiltered communication to strengthen their legitimacy. In various regions, broadcast formats have historically been used to bypass intermediaries and appeal to constituencies traditionally marginalized by elite discourse.[133]

Some scholars argue that media ownership and market dynamics have further accentuated these trends. As private media companies competed for audiences, they increasingly prioritized sensationalism and political scandal, fostering anti-establishment sentiment and public cynicism toward government institutions. Media outlets, driven by commercial imperatives, have also been said to contribute to the dissemination of populist rhetoric by providing disproportionate coverage to controversial figures, thereby amplifying their visibility and normalizing transgressive discourse. This dynamic has been observed across a range of media systems, including tabloids and even elements of the quality press.[134][135]

In the digital era, scholars have argued that social media platforms have further reshaped political communication in ways that favor populist discourse.[136] These platforms have been described as having "elective affinities" with populism, as they bypass traditional gatekeeping mechanisms and foster the impression that political authority and legitimacy now rest directly with the people.[137] Furthermore, political communication on these platforms tends to rely on fragmentation and conflict-driven narratives, which may amplify populist messages.[138]

Mobilization

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Several authors have examined populism as a form of political mobilization that incorporates previously invisible or marginalized sectors into the political arena.[139][140][141] However, the specific forms that this mobilization takes remain a subject of debate in the literature. While some scholars argue that populism is inherently tied to the figure of a charismatic leader,[142] others contend that it can manifest in three distinct but sometimes coexisting forms: the populist leader, the populist political party, and the populist social movement.[143]

Leaders

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Populism is frequently associated with charismatic leadership.[144][145] In an era of increasingly personalized politics, the success and longevity of populist movements often depend on leaders’ personal charisma and individual appeal.[146][147] Such leaders claim to represent "the people" and, in many cases, portray themselves as the embodiment of the people—as the vox populi, or "voice of the people."[148]

Drawing on Margaret Canovan's insight that populists often employ undiplomatic rhetoric and a tabloid style that contrasts with institutional norms,[149] scholars from sociocultural and performative approaches have emphasized the theatrical and stylistic dimensions of populist leadership.[150] While genuine political outsiders are relatively rare,[151] populist leaders often perform a form of outsiderness to construct authenticity and distinguish themselves from "suited elites" and professional politicians.[152] The literature highlights the transgressive nature of this performance, noting that it can take multiple, overlapping forms: interactional, rhetorical, and theatrical.[153]

Interactional transgressions refer to the ways populist leaders violate conventional norms of interpersonal conduct—employing personal insults, invading personal space, using provocative gestures, or making suggestive innuendos—to create a confrontational political presence.[154] Scholars from the ideational approach link such behavior to populism's underlying moral framework, which constructs politics as a struggle between a virtuous people and corrupt elites, framing critics and opponents as "enemies of the people."[155]

Rhetorical transgressions include a rejection of the polished, technocratic language typical of establishment politicians. Populist speech often favors simplicity, directness, or even vulgarity—aligning with the populist emphasis on authenticity. Populist figures may adopt the persona of the "uomo qualunque" (common man), using informal or crude speech.[156] Ethnic identity can likewise be mobilized: leaders such as Evo Morales and Alberto Fujimori used their non-white heritage to position themselves in contrast to historically white-dominated elites.[157] Others have drawn on indigenous or vernacular languages in public speech, symbolically rejecting elite or colonial norms.[152] Gendered performances also shape populist transgressive rhetoric. Male populists may emphasize virility or dominance—Umberto Bossi’s obscene gestures or Silvio Berlusconi’s sexual boasts are emblematic—while female populists often present themselves as protective maternal figures, such as Sarah Palin’s "mama grizzly" persona or Pauline Hanson’s claim to care for Australia "like a mother."[158] Performative scholars such as Casullo have argued that this transgressive style not only affirms ordinariness but also incorporates performances of extraordinariness.[159] For instance, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Eva Perón used glamorous fashion not to signal simplicity but to project aspirational ideals and popular empowerment.[160]

Theatrical transgressions involve a refusal to conceal the performative nature of political life. While mainstream politicians typically mask the staged aspects of their public appearances, populist leaders often foreground them. Donald Trump, for example, frequently made metapolitical asides during U.S. presidential debates, mocking rhetorical conventions and drawing attention to their formulaic nature.[161]

Political parties

[edit]

Though some populist parties champion citizen-led direct democracy through popular initiatives,[162] populism does not reject party-based parliamentary representation entirely. Rather, it seeks to redefine it by privileging figures who claim to speak authentically for "the people."[163] Populist political parties often emerge around a charismatic leader, adopting top-down structures that concentrate decision-making and symbolic authority in a single figure.[163] These parties function as vehicles for personal leadership, reinforcing the central role of the leader in mobilizing support and framing political identity. Leadership transitions can be pivotal: some parties, like Argentina’s Justicialist Party and Venezuela's United Socialist Party (PSUV), maintained cohesion after the deaths of their founding figures, while others fractured.[164]

Sometimes, rather than founding new parties, populists overtake existing ones, as seen with the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the Swiss People's Party (SVP).[165] In other cases, established parties undergo a gradual populist transformation. A notable example is the Greek party SYRIZA, which between 2012 and 2015 evolved from a radical left-wing party primarily appealing to "the left" and then "the youth," to one that claimed to represent "the people." This transformation was marked not only by changes in speeches but also by increasingly transgressive performances by its leaders, who, once in power, broke with conventional political decorum.[166]

As the case of SYRIZA illustrates, the boundaries between political parties and social movements can be fluid. While SYRIZA eventually became a major institutional actor, its early trajectory was deeply intertwined with grassroots mobilizations against austerity.[167] Other populist parties have emerged even more directly from mass movements seeking to channel grassroots discontent into formal politics. The Spanish party Podemos, for example, was founded in the wake of the Indignados movement, while India's Aam Aadmi Party grew out of the India Against Corruption campaign.[168] These examples illustrate how populist energy can flow between civil society and electoral arenas—a phenomenon further explored in the context of grassroots populist movements.

Social movements

[edit]

The wave of mass protests that followed the 2008 financial crisis has often been characterized as a populist phenomenon. Although differing in context, tone, and social composition, these mobilizations shared a rejection of established political elites, emphasized the moral authority of "the people," and advanced demands for more inclusive and participatory forms of democracy. The Occupy movement in the United States, the Indignados movement in Spain, the anti-austerity protests in Greece, and the Gilets jaunes (Yellow Vests) in France all combined anti-elite rhetoric with horizontal experiments in democratic organization.[169][170] Symbolic slogans such as "We are the 99%" captured the populist framing of these protests, portraying a voiceless majority in opposition to a privileged elite. Although they shared common traits, the social base and geographical focus of these mobilizations varied: while earlier protests were often concentrated in urban hubs, the Gilets jaunes mobilized primarily rural and peri-urban populations, voicing the grievances of what was sometimes called “la France oubliée” (forgotten France).[171][172]

These grassroots mobilizations, whether or not they evolved into lasting political structures, exerted a profound influence on electoral politics and public discourse. They reshaped political agendas, introduced new rhetorical styles centered on anti-elitism and citizen empowerment, and forced established actors to respond to new forms of popular expression. In Spain and Greece, protest movements reconfigured political debates around austerity and democratic renewal. In the United States, the Occupy Wall Street movement influenced the language and priorities of Bernie Sanders2016 presidential campaign, particularly its emphasis on economic inequality and corporate power. Conversely, right-wing populist energy found expression through the Tea Party movement, which contributed to shifting the Republican Party toward a more anti-establishment posture and paved the way for the rise of Donald Trump.[173]

Scholars in the discursive tradition of populism studies have emphasized the complex and often reciprocal relationship between populist leaders and social movements—particularly in left-wing or socially oriented contexts. Rather than assuming a one-directional, top-down mobilization, this view highlights how leaders can contribute to the politicization and organization of civil society, and how movements, in turn, can shape and transform leadership. In Latin America, this dynamic has deep historical roots. Mid-twentieth-century leaders such as Juan Perón in Argentina and Getúlio Vargas in Brazil played a central role in organizing labor unions and incorporating subaltern sectors into national politics.[174] While initially aligned with the regime, these sectors often gained autonomy and began articulating demands independently.[175] More recently, Hugo Chávez in Venezuela promoted participatory structures such as Bolivarian Circles, Communal Councils, and Urban Land Committees.[176] Designed to deepen popular engagement and distribute resources, these initiatives also created new networks of mobilization. A further example, noted by political theorists Paula Biglieri and Luciana Cadahia, is the role of grassroots feminist activists in Argentina, who successfully pressured the Peronist leadership to support the legalization of abortion—despite their initial opposition to the measure.[177]

Responses to populism

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Debates around how to respond to populism reveal sharp divides between those who see it as a threat to be contained and those who view it as a symptom of deeper democratic failures. While many mainstream actors focus on defending liberal institutions from populist erosion, left-wing theorists have explored how populist energies might be redirected toward egalitarian or emancipatory ends.

Mainstream responses

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Among liberal scholars, a central concern has been the preservation of institutional safeguards. Authors like Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt argue that populist figures with authoritarian leanings often become viable only when traditional elites choose to accommodate them for strategic reasons. In their account, democratic backsliding typically occurs when political elites fail to uphold informal norms of mutual toleration and institutional forbearance.[178] Their approach aligns with aspects of elite theory, emphasizing the responsibility of established power-holders to act as gatekeepers to safeguard democratic norms.[179]

Reflecting this logic, several European countries have adopted the strategy of a cordon sanitaire, in which mainstream parties refuse to cooperate or form coalitions with populist or extremist actors, seeking to prevent their institutional legitimation.[180] The media, too, can play a crucial role in either reinforcing or undermining these gatekeeping efforts. In some contexts, media institutions have amplified populist narratives or provided favorable coverage, while in others they have attempted to marginalize such movements. Additionally, some scholars note that when mainstream actors adopt elements of the populist style—such as anti-elitist rhetoric—they may inadvertently contribute to the normalization of populism rather than containing it.[181]

Related to this is the concept of militant democracy or defensive democracy, originally articulated by Karl Loewenstein in the 1930s. Loewenstein argued that liberal democracies must sometimes take exceptional restrictive measures that might seem arbitrary and limit certain freedoms to defend themselves against actors who exploit democratic procedures to undermine democratic substance—a concern that also resonates with Karl Popper’s paradox of tolerance.[182][183] This approach has gained renewed attention in contexts such as Brazil, where the Supreme Court expanded its own procedural interpretations to investigate anti-democratic activities after the Prosecutor General's Office had been politically aligned with then-president Jair Bolsonaro. These actions were justified as necessary to uphold the rule of law in the face of institutional capture.[184] A similar logic has been invoked in Romania, where legal and institutional efforts to constrain far-right movements have prompted public controversy over how far democracies can go in defending themselves without compromising pluralism and political freedom.[185][186]

Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser, while critical of populism, caution against the widespread liberal impulse to disqualify populists as "irrational," “immoral," or "foolish." In their view, such discursive strategies often play into the hands of populists, reinforcing the binary logic—"the pure people" versus "the corrupt elite"—on which they believe populism thrives.[187] Rather than moralizing condemnation, they advocate for sustained engagement with populist supporters and arguments, alongside a principled defense of liberal democratic values.[188]

Left populist responses

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From the perspective of left populism, the rise of reactionary populist movements is often interpreted as a response to a broader anti-political sentiment—a rejection of technocratic consensus, elite detachment, and social abandonment. Thinkers such as Chantal Mouffe argue that this dissatisfaction should not be left in the hands of the right, but rather reappropriated through a left populist project that mobilizes passion for democratic and egalitarian ends.[189]

However, there are strategic disagreements among left populists. Some scholars suggest that left movements must engage with national identity and reduce emphasis on minority-focused policies to reconnect with disaffected working-class constituencies.[190] This perspective underlies proposals for a left populism that emphasizes cultural belonging and national sovereignty alongside economic redistribution, as seen in the positions of German politician Sahra Wagenknecht, who has criticized the left for abandoning "ordinary people" in favor of urban progressive elites.[191] In contrast, other scholars warn that such strategies risk reproducing far-right framings without yielding electoral gains. They instead advocate for intersectional alliances rooted in solidarity among marginalized groups, grounded in inclusive democratic values.[192] These debates are shaped by national contexts, electoral systems, and the particular forms populism takes in different settings.[193]

History

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Although the term "populist" can be traced back to populares (courting the people) Senators in Ancient Rome, the first political movements emerged during the late nineteenth century. However, some of the movements that have been portrayed as progenitors of modern populism did not develop a truly populist ideology. It was only with the coming of Boulangism in France and the American People's Party, which was also known as the Populist Party, that the foundational forms of populism can fully be discerned. In particular, it was during this era that terms such as "people" and "popular sovereignty" became a major part of the vocabulary of insurgent political movements that courted mass support among an expanding electorate by claiming that they uniquely embodied their interests[.]

Political historian Roger Eatwell[194]

Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser argue that populism is a modern phenomenon.[195] However, attempts have been made to identify manifestations of populism in the democracy of classical Athens.[196] Eatwell noted that although the actual term populism parallels that of the Populares who were active in the Roman Republic, these and other pre-modern groups "did not develop a truly populist ideology."[197] The origins of populism are often traced to the late nineteenth century, when movements calling themselves populist arose in both the United States and the Russian Empire.[198] Populism has often been linked to the spread of democracy, both as an idea and as a framework for governance.[195]

Conversely, the historian Barry S. Strauss argued that populism could also be seen in the ancient world, citing the examples of the fifth-century B.C. Athens and Populares, a political faction active in the Roman Republic from the second century BCE.[199] The historian Rachel Foxley argued that the Levellers of 17th-century England could also be labelled "populists", meaning that they believed "equal natural rights ... must shape political life"[200][clarification needed] while the historian Peter Blickle linked populism to the Protestant Reformation.[201][202]

Europe

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19th and 20th centuries

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In the Russian Empire during the late 19th century, the narodnichestvo movement emerged, championing the cause of the empire's peasantry against the governing elites.[203] The movement was unable to secure its objectives; however, it inspired other agrarian movements across eastern Europe in the early 20th century.[204] Although the Russian movement was primarily a movement of the middle class and intellectuals "going to the people", in some respects their agrarian populism was similar to that of the US People's Party, with both presenting small farmers (the peasantry in Europe) as the foundation of society and main source of societal morality.[204] According to Eatwell, the narodniks "are often seen as the first populist movement".[16]

Ilya Repin's painting, Arrest of a Propagandist (1892), which depicts the arrest of a narodnik

In German-speaking Europe, the völkisch movement has often been characterised as populist, with its exultation of the German people and its anti-elitist attacks on capitalism and Jews.[16] In France, the Boulangist movement also used populist rhetoric and themes.[205] In the early 20th century, adherents of both Marxism and fascism flirted with populism, but both movements remained ultimately elitist, emphasising the idea of a small elite who should guide and govern society.[204] Among Marxists, the emphasis on class struggle and the idea that the working classes are affected by false consciousness are also antithetical to populist ideas.[204]

After 1945 populism was largely absent from Europe, in part due to the domination of Marxism–Leninism in Eastern Europe and a desire to emphasise moderation among many West European political parties.[206] However, over the coming decades, a number of right-wing populist parties emerged throughout the continent.[207] These were largely isolated and mostly reflected a conservative agricultural backlash against the centralisation and politicisation of the agricultural sector then occurring.[208] These included Guglielmo Giannini's Common Man's Front in 1940s Italy, Pierre Poujade's Union for the Defense of Tradesmen and Artisans in late 1950s France, Hendrik Koekoek's Farmers' Party of the 1960s Netherlands, and Mogens Glistrup's Progress Party of 1970s Denmark.[207] Between the late 1960s and the early 1980s there also came a concerted populist critique of society from Europe's New Left, including from the new social movements and from the early Green parties.[209] However it was only in the late 1990s, according to Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser, that populism became "a relevant political force in Europe", one which could have a significant impact on mainstream politics.[208]

Following the fall of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc of the early 1990s, there was a rise in populism across much of Central and Eastern Europe.[210] In the first multiparty elections in many of these countries, various parties portrayed themselves as representatives of "the people" against the "elite", representing the old governing Marxist–Leninist parties.[211] The Czech Civic Forum party for instance campaigned on the slogan "Parties are for party members, Civic Forum is for everybody".[211] Many populists in this region claimed that a "real" revolution had not occurred during the transition from Marxist–Leninist to liberal democratic governance in the early 1990s and that it was they who were campaigning for such a change.[212]

The collapse of Marxism–Leninism as a central force in socialist politics also led to a broader growth of left-wing populism across Europe, reflected in groups like the Dutch Socialist Party, Scottish Socialist Party, and Germany's Left Party.[213] Since the late 1980s, populist experiences emerged in Spain around the figures of José María Ruiz Mateos, Jesús Gil and Mario Conde, businessmen who entered politics chiefly to defend their personal economic interests, but by the turn of the millennium their proposals had proved to meet a limited support at the ballots at the national level.[214]

21st century

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European national parliaments with representatives from right-wing populist parties in July 2023:[citation needed]
 Right-wing populists represented in the parliament
 Right-wing populists providing external support for government
 Right-wing populists involved in the government
 Right-wing populists appoint prime minister/president
Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder and leader of the French National Front, the "prototypical radical right party" which used populism to advance its cause[215]

At the turn of the 21st century, populist rhetoric and movements became increasingly apparent in Western Europe.[216] Populist rhetoric was often used by opposition parties. For example, in the 2001 electoral campaign, the Conservative Party leader William Hague accused Tony Blair's governing Labour Party government of representing "the condescending liberal elite". Hague repeatedly referring to it as "metropolitan", implying that it was out of touch with "the people", who in Conservative discourse are represented by "Middle England".[217] Blair's government also employed populist rhetoric; in outlining legislation to curtail fox hunting on animal welfare grounds, it presented itself as championing the desires of the majority against the upper-classes who engaged in the sport.[34] Blair's rhetoric has been characterised as the adoption of a populist style rather than the expression of an underlying populist ideology.[218]

By the 21st century, European populism[219] was again associated largely with the political right.[220] The term came to be used in reference both to radical right groups like Jörg Haider's FPÖ in Austria and Jean-Marie Le Pen's FN in France, as well as to non-radical right-wing groups like Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia or Pim Fortuyn's LPF in the Netherlands.[220] The populist radical right combined populism with authoritarianism and nativism.[208][221]

Conversely, the Great Recession also resulted in the emergence of left-wing populist groups in parts of Europe, most notably the Syriza party which gained political office in Greece and the Podemos party in Spain, displaying similarities with the US-based Occupy movement.[212] Like Europe's right-wing populists, these groups also expressed Eurosceptic sentiment towards the European Union, albeit largely from a socialist and anti-austerity perspective rather than the nationalist perspective adopted by their right-wing counterparts.[212] Populists have entered government in many countries across Europe, both in coalitions with other parties as well by themselves, Austria and Poland are examples of these respectively.[222]

The UK Labour Party under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn has been called populist,[223][224][225] with the slogan "for the many not the few" having been used.[226][227][failed verification][228][failed verification]

After the 2016 UK referendum on membership of the European Union, in which British citizens voted to leave, some have claimed the "Brexit" as a victory for populism, encouraging a flurry of calls for referendums among other EU countries by populist political parties.[229]

North America

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The 2016 presidential election saw a wave of populist sentiment in the campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, with both candidates running on anti-establishment platforms in the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively.

In North America, populism has often been characterised by regional mobilisation and loose organisation.[230] During the late 19th and early 20th centuries, populist sentiments became widespread, particularly in the western provinces of Canada, and in the southwest and Great Plains regions of the United States. In this instance, populism was combined with agrarianism and often known as "prairie populism".[231] For these groups, "the people" were yeomen—small, independent farmers—while the "elite" were the bankers and politicians of the northeast.[231] In some cases, populist activists called for alliances with labor (the first national platform of the National People's Party in 1892 calling for protecting the rights of "urban workmen".[232] In the state of Georgia in the early 1890s, Thomas E. Watson led a major effort to unite poor white farmers, and included some African-American farmers.[233][234]

The People's Party of the late 19th century United States is considered to be "one of the defining populist movements";[207] its members were often referred to as the Populists at the time.[231] Its radical platform included calling for the nationalisation of railways, the banning of strikebreakers, and the introduction of referendums.[235] The party gained representation in several state legislatures during the 1890s, but was not powerful enough to mount a successful presidential challenge. In the 1896 presidential election, the People's Party supported the Democratic Party candidate William Jennings Bryan; after his defeat, the People's Party's support plunged.[236]

Other early populist political parties in the United States included the Greenback Party, the Progressive Party of 1924 led by Robert M. La Follette, Sr., and the Share Our Wealth movement of Huey P. Long in 1933–1935.[237][238] In Canada, populist groups adhering to a social credit ideology had various successes at local and regional elections from the 1930s to the 1960s, although the main Social Credit Party of Canada never became a dominant national force.[239]

By the mid-20th century, US populism had moved from a largely progressive to a largely reactionary stance, being closely intertwined with the anti-communist politics of the period.[240] In this period, the historian Richard Hofstadter and sociologist Daniel Bell compared the anti-elitism of the 1890s Populists with that of Joseph McCarthy.[241] Although not all academics accepted the comparison between the left-wing, anti-big business Populists and the right-wing, anti-communist McCarthyites, the term "populist" nonetheless came to be applied to both left-wing and right-wing groups that blamed elites for the problems facing the country.[241]

Some mainstream politicians in the Republican Party recognised the utility of such a tactic and adopted it; Republican President Richard Nixon for instance popularised the term "silent majority" when appealing to voters.[240] Right-wing populist rhetoric was also at the base of two of the most successful third-party presidential campaigns in the late 20th century, that of George C. Wallace in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992.[3] These politicians presented a consistent message that a "liberal elite" was threatening "our way of life" and using the welfare state to placate the poor and thus maintain their own power.[3]

Former Oklahoma Senator Fred R. Harris, first elected in 1964, ran unsuccessfully for the US presidency in 1972 and 1976. Harris' New Populism embraced egalitarian themes.[242]

In the first decade of the 21st century, two populist movements appeared in the US, both in response to the Great Recession: the Occupy movement and the Tea Party movement.[243] The populist approach of the Occupy movement was broader, with its "people" being what it called "the 99%", while the "elite" it challenged was presented as both the economic and political elites.[244] The Tea Party's populism was Producerism, while "the elite" it presented was more party partisan than that of Occupy, being defined largely—although not exclusively—as the Democratic administration of President Barack Obama.[244]

The 2016 presidential election saw a wave of populist sentiment in the campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, with both candidates running on anti-establishment platforms in the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively.[245] Both campaigns criticised free trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership but differed significantly on other issues, such as immigration.[246][247][248][249] Other studies have noted an emergence of populist rhetoric and a decline in the value of prior experience in U.S. intra-party contests such as congressional primaries.[250] Nativism and hostility toward immigrants (especially Muslims, Hispanics and Asians) were common features.[251]

Latin America

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Javier Milei, Argentina President, is a well known libertarian populist.[252]

Populism has been dominant in Latin American politics since the 1930s and 1940s,[253] being far more prevalent there than in Europe.[254] Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser noted that the region has the world's "most enduring and prevalent populist tradition".[255] They suggested that this was the case because it was a region with a long tradition of democratic governance and free elections, but with high rates of socio-economic inequality, generating widespread resentments that politicians can articulate through populism.[256] March instead thought that it was the important role of "catch-all parties and prominent personalities" in Latin American politics which had made populism more common.[254]

The first wave of Latin American populism began at the start of the Great Depression in 1929 and last until the end of the 1960s.[257] In various countries, politicians took power while emphasising "the people": these included Getúlio Vargas in Brazil, Juan Perón in Argentina, and José María Velasco Ibarra in Ecuador.[258] These relied on the Americanismo ideology, presenting a common identity across Latin America and denouncing any interference from imperialist powers.[259] The second wave took place in the early 1990s;[260] de la Torre called it "neoliberal populism".[157]

In the late 1980s many Latin American states were experiencing economic crisis and several populist figures were elected by blaming the elites for this situation.[259] Examples include Carlos Menem in Argentina, Fernando Collor de Mello in Brazil, and Alberto Fujimori in Peru.[260] Once in power, these individuals pursued neoliberal economic strategies recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).[261] Unlike the first wave, the second did not include an emphasis on Americanismo or anti-imperialism.[262]

The third wave began in the final years of the 1990s and continued into the 21st century.[262] It overlapped in part with the pink tide of left-wing resurgence in Latin America. Like the first wave, the third made heavy use of Americanismo and anti-imperialism, although this time these themes presented alongside an explicitly socialist programme that opposed the free market.[262] Prominent examples included Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Cristina de Kirchner in Argentina,Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua.[263] These socialist populist governments have presented themselves as giving sovereignty "back to the people", in particular through the formation of constituent assemblies that would draw up new constitutions, which could then be ratified via referendums.[264] In this way they claimed to be correcting the problems of social and economic injustice that liberal democracy had failed to deal with, replacing it with superior forms of democracy.[265]

Oceania

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During the 1990s, there was a growth in populism in both Australia and New Zealand.[266]

In New Zealand Robert Muldoon, the 31st Prime Minister of New Zealand from 1975 to 1984, had been cited as a populist.[267] Populism has become a pervasive trend in New Zealand politics since the introduction of the mixed-member proportional voting system in 1996.[268][269] The New Zealand Labour Party's populist appeals in its 1999 election campaign and advertising helped to propel the party to victory in that election.[270] New Zealand First has presented a more lasting populist platform; long-time party leader Winston Peters has been characterised by some as a populist who uses anti-establishment rhetoric,[271] though in a uniquely New Zealand style.[272][273]

Sub-Saharan Africa

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In much of Africa, populism has been a rare phenomenon.[274] The political scientist Danielle Resnick argued that populism first became apparent in Africa during the 1980s, when a series of coups brought military leaders to power in various countries.[275] In Ghana, for example, Jerry Rawlings took control, professing that he would involve "the people" in "the decision-making process", something he claimed had previously been denied to them.[275] A similar process took place in neighbouring Burkina Faso under the military leader Thomas Sankara, who professed to "take power out of the hands of our national bourgeoisie and their imperialist allies and put it in the hands of the people".[276] Such military leaders claimed to represent "the voice of the people", used an anti-establishment discourse, and established participatory organisations through which to maintain links with the broader population.[277]

In the 21st century, with the establishment of multi-party democratic systems in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, new populist politicians have appeared. These have included Kenya's Raila Odinga, Senegal's Abdoulaye Wade, South Africa's Julius Malema, and Zambia's Michael Sata.[278] These populists have arisen in democratic rather than authoritarian states, and have arisen amid dissatisfaction with democratisation, socio-economic grievances, and frustration at the inability of opposition groups to oust incumbent parties.[279]

Asia and the Arab world

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Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines and Narendra Modi of India, 2018. They are both considered populist leaders of the left and right, respectively.

In North Africa, populism was associated with the approaches of several political leaders active in the 20th century, most notably Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.[274] However, populist approaches only became more popular in the Middle East during the early 21st century, by which point it became integral to much of the region's politics.[274] Here, it became an increasingly common element of mainstream politics in established representative democracies, associated with longstanding leaders like Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu.[280] Although the Arab Spring was not a populist movement itself, populist rhetoric was present among protesters.[281]

In southeast Asia, populist politicians emerged in the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In the region, various populist governments took power but were removed soon after: these include the administrations of Joseph Estrada in the Philippines, Roh Moo-hyun in South Korea, Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan, and Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand.[282] In India, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which rose to increasing power in the early 21st century adopted a right-wing populist position.[283] Unlike many other successful populist groups, the BJP was not wholly reliant on the personality of its leader, but survived as a powerful electoral vehicle under several leaders.[284]

See also

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References

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Further reading

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[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
Populism is a thin-centered ideology that views society as divided into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups: the pure people and the corrupt elite, with politics understood as a moralistic struggle to assemble the former against the latter in expression of the people's general will. This framework, which lacks a comprehensive program and thus attaches to various host ideologies, emphasizes anti-elitism and popular sovereignty over pluralistic representation. While often critiqued in academic and media circles—frequently exhibiting systemic biases against non-establishment challengers—empirical analyses highlight populism's adaptability across contexts, from agrarian movements in 19th-century America and Russia to contemporary responses to economic inequality and cultural dislocation. Left-wing variants typically target socioeconomic elites and multinational corporations, advocating redistribution and state intervention, whereas right-wing forms incorporate nativism, framing the elite as culturally disconnected and prioritizing national identity against perceived threats like immigration. Defining characteristics include charismatic leadership, direct appeals to the masses via simplified rhetoric, and skepticism toward institutional mediation, which can mobilize voter turnout but also fuel polarization when causal factors like elite capture of policy diverge from public interests. Recent surges, particularly post-2008 financial crisis, reflect underlying real grievances rather than mere demagoguery, challenging liberal democratic norms without inherently eroding them.

Definition and Core Elements

Defining Populism from First Principles

Populism, at its core, posits a fundamental antagonism between "the pure people" and "the corrupt elite," framing society as divided into two homogeneous moral categories where the people's sovereignty is thwarted by elite betrayal. This dichotomy derives from the logical premise that political power in any society accrues to elites—those controlling institutions, resources, and discourse—who inevitably prioritize self-interest over the common good, alienating the masses whose interests they ostensibly serve. The "people" are idealized as a unified, virtuous whole embodying the general will, untainted by factionalism, while the elite embodies corruption, incompetence, or cosmopolitan detachment. This moralistic binary rejects pluralistic mediation, asserting that true democracy requires direct expression of popular sovereignty, often through a charismatic leader or plebiscitary mechanisms, bypassing representative institutions deemed elitist. Unlike thick ideologies such as socialism or nationalism, populism functions as a "thin-centered" framework, providing a diagnostic critique of power imbalances rather than a comprehensive program, which allows it to attach to varied host ideologies—economic redistribution on the left or cultural preservation on the right. From causal first principles, this emerges when systemic failures, such as unresponsive governance or elite capture of policy (e.g., favoring global finance over domestic labor), erode trust in established orders, prompting appeals to restore popular agency. Empirical manifestations confirm this: leaders invoke the people's moral purity against elite perfidy, as in claims that "the system is rigged" by insiders against outsiders. The approach's anti-elitism is not mere rhetoric but a rejection of institutional pluralism, viewing checks and balances as elite tools to dilute the general will. This definition privileges observable patterns over normative judgments, noting populism's adaptability: it thrives where evidence of elite disconnect accumulates, such as post-2008 economic shocks widening inequality without corresponding political reforms, fueling narratives of popular dispossession. Critics from elite perspectives often dismiss it as demagoguery, but first-principles analysis reveals it as a corrective mechanism against oligarchic drift, albeit risking majoritarian excesses by homogenizing "the people" and demonizing dissenters as elite-aligned. Sources advancing this view, like political scientists Cas Mudde and Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser, emphasize its monistic logic—positing unified popular interests against elite fragmentation—supported by cross-regional studies of movements from Latin America to Europe. Such framing avoids conflating populism with extremism, distinguishing its core appeal to sovereignty from substantive policies. Populism, characterized as a thin-centered ideology that divides society between a virtuous "pure people" and a corrupt "elite," differs fundamentally from demagoguery, which refers to rhetorical manipulation appealing to popular prejudices without a coherent ideological framework. While populist leaders may employ demagogic tactics, such as emotional appeals or simplification of complex issues, populism's core is its moralistic antagonism toward elites rather than mere oratorical style; historical examples like the 19th-century U.S. People's Party emphasized agrarian reforms against financial elites without descending into unchecked manipulation. In contrast, demagoguery lacks this people-elite binary and can appear in non-populist contexts, as seen in ancient Athenian figures like Cleon, who prioritized personal ambition over ideological consistency. Unlike authoritarianism, which entails centralized power concentration, suppression of opposition, and rejection of institutional checks, populism does not inherently oppose democratic procedures; empirical studies distinguish "democratic populism," which favors direct mechanisms like referendums to empower the people against elites, from "authoritarian populism," which aligns with strongman rule. For instance, left-wing populists like those in Latin America's "pink tide" (e.g., Bolivia under Evo Morales from 2006–2019) pursued inclusionary policies via electoral mandates without dismantling pluralism, whereas authoritarian regimes like Venezuela's under Chávez (1999–2013) fused populism with institutional erosion, highlighting that authoritarian outcomes depend on contextual factors rather than populism itself. Data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset shows populist governments vary widely in democratic backsliding, with some, like Ecuador's under Correa (2007–2017), reversing authoritarian tendencies through plebiscites, underscoring populism's compatibility with liberal norms when not conjoined with anti-pluralist host ideologies. Populism also contrasts with fascism, a thick ideology incorporating ultranationalism, racial hierarchy, militarism, and totalitarian state control, whereas populism functions as a versatile "thin" layer attachable to diverse hosts like socialism or liberalism without requiring fascist elements. Fascist movements, such as Mussolini's Italy (1922–1943), emphasized corporatist state supremacy and expansionism, diverging from populism's focus on popular sovereignty against elites; equating the two overlooks cases like Peronism in Argentina (1946–1955), which mobilized workers against oligarchs via elections but rejected fascist paramilitarism. Scholarly analyses note that while both critique elites, fascism's organicist view of the nation as an eternal entity clashes with populism's constructivist portrayal of "the people" as a unified moral force, often leading to misattributions in media discourse that inflate populism's illiberal risks. Nationalism, centered on prioritizing the nation's interests and identity against external threats, overlaps with right-wing populism but remains distinct, as populism's antagonism targets internal elites rather than solely foreigners; nativist populism, like France's National Rally under Marine Le Pen (elected to parliament in 2017), fuses the two by framing elites as betrayers of national sovereignty, yet pure nationalism, as in civic variants, can lack populism's anti-elite rhetoric. Comparative ideology research confirms this separation: surveys of European parties show nationalist platforms emphasize cultural homogeneity (e.g., Denmark's Danish People's Party gaining 21% in 2015 elections), while populist appeals stress economic exclusion by cosmopolitan elites, allowing left-nationalist hybrids without the ethnic exclusionism of nationalism. This distinction holds empirically, as populist surges in non-nationalist contexts, such as Greece's Syriza (52% in 2015 snap elections), targeted EU technocrats over immigrants.

Etymology and Historical Terminology

Origins in 19th-Century Usage

The term "populism" first appeared in American political discourse during the early 1890s, coined to describe the ideology and platform of the People's Party, an agrarian reform movement that emerged amid economic distress among farmers in the Midwest and South. This usage stemmed from the party's self-identification as advocates for "the people" against concentrated economic power held by railroads, banks, and industrial monopolies, reflecting grievances over deflationary policies, high interest rates, and exploitative freight charges that had eroded farm incomes by as much as 50% between 1870 and 1890. The party's formal organization occurred on July 4, 1892, at a convention in Omaha, Nebraska, where delegates adopted the "Omaha Platform," demanding reforms such as the free coinage of silver at a 16:1 ratio to gold, government ownership of railroads and telegraphs, and a graduated income tax to redistribute wealth from urban elites to rural producers. Prior to the People's Party's rise, proto-populist sentiments had coalesced through the Farmers' Alliance, a network of over 1 million members by 1890 that organized cooperatives and pushed for currency expansion to combat the gold standard's contractionary effects, which had contributed to farm foreclosures numbering in the hundreds of thousands annually during the 1880s. The term "populist" was initially applied by contemporary journalists and party members to signify a commitment to majority rule and direct democracy, distinguishing it from both traditional Republican industrialism and Democratic sectionalism; for instance, Ignatius Donnelly's 1892 address at the Omaha convention invoked "the people" as a sovereign force capable of reclaiming government from "plutocratic" interests. This framing emphasized causal links between monetary policy failures—such as the 1873 Coinage Act's demonetization of silver, which halved the money supply per capita—and the resulting concentration of wealth, positioning populism as a response to verifiable material inequalities rather than abstract ideology. In Europe, contemporaneous movements exhibited similar anti-elite mobilizations, such as Russian Narodnik agrarian socialism in the 1870s, which sought to empower peasant communes against tsarist autocracy and urban intellectuals, but the English term "populism" did not gain traction there until the 20th century; instead, it remained tied to American usage, where the People's Party garnered over 1 million votes (8.5% of the national total) in the 1892 presidential election, marking the first major third-party challenge since the mid-1850s. The party's decline by 1896, following fusion with Democrats on silver coinage and internal divisions over race and labor, nonetheless entrenched "populism" as denoting grassroots insurgency against entrenched power structures, a connotation derived from empirical farmer-led coalitions rather than elite theorizing.

Evolution and Conceptual Shifts

In the early 20th century, following the collapse of the United States People's Party after its fusion with the Democratic Party in the 1896 presidential campaign, the term "populism" largely faded from active political usage, though it persisted in historical retrospectives of agrarian reform efforts. By mid-century, it reemerged in scholarly and political analyses, particularly in reference to Latin American regimes under leaders like Juan Perón in Argentina (1946–1955 and 1973–1974) and Getúlio Vargas in Brazil (1930–1945 and 1951–1954), where it denoted charismatic mobilization against oligarchic elites and foreign influences, often blending nationalism with welfare policies. Academic study of populism gained momentum in the late 1960s, transitioning from descriptive historical accounts to comparative frameworks that emphasized its adaptability across contexts, including peasant-based movements in Asia and Europe. This period marked a conceptual shift from viewing populism as a transient, rural ideology tied to 19th-century economic grievances—such as deflation and railroad monopolies in the U.S.—to recognizing it as a recurring political style pitting "the pure people" against "the corrupt elite." By the 1980s and 1990s, amid neoliberal reforms and the decline of traditional parties, the term expanded to describe radical right-wing parties in Western Europe, such as France's National Front (founded 1972), and left-leaning variants in Latin America, like Peru's Alberto Fujimori's 1990 campaign against entrenched bureaucracy. Conceptual debates intensified, with scholars distinguishing "populism" from fascism or communism while noting its pejorative deployment by mainstream observers to delegitimize anti-establishment challengers, rather than as a neutral descriptor of mass appeal. Into the 21st century, populism's scope broadened further with the rise of figures like Hugo Chávez in Venezuela (1999–2013), who framed it as anti-imperialist sovereignty, and European parties gaining parliamentary seats—e.g., over 20% in national elections for groups like Italy's Lega by 2018—prompting refinements in scholarship to account for both economic and cultural dimensions without conflating it with mere demagoguery. This evolution reflects a move from episodic, context-specific terminology to a core analytical category in political science, though contested for its vagueness, with some analyses tracing over 100 instances of populist governments since 1900.

Theoretical Frameworks

Ideational and Moralistic Approaches

The ideational approach defines populism as a thin-centered ideology that posits society as divided into two homogeneous and antagonistic camps: the pure people and the corrupt elite, with the former embodying moral virtue and the general will against the latter's betrayal of popular sovereignty. This framework, advanced by scholars such as Cas Mudde since 2004 and Jan-Werner Müller in his 2016 book What Is Populism?, emphasizes populism's core ideas over its organizational form, economic policies, or rhetorical style, allowing it to attach to thicker host ideologies like nationalism or socialism. Müller's analysis defines populism as an anti-pluralist stance claiming exclusive representation of the "real" people against elites, highlighting its international influence, including in Germany. Unlike programmatic ideologies, populism's "thin" nature enables flexible combinations, as evidenced by its appearance across left-wing movements in Latin America, such as Hugo Chávez's Bolivarianism in Venezuela from 1999 onward, and right-wing variants in Europe, like the National Rally in France. Central to this approach is a moralistic dimension, wherein "the people" are portrayed as ethically homogeneous and unified in their interests, while "the elite" is depicted as a decadent, self-serving minority that has usurped rightful authority, often through appeals to purity versus corruption rather than detailed policy critiques. Mudde highlights monism—the belief in a singular popular will—and moralism as foundational, fostering anti-pluralism by rejecting compromise with elites or minorities perceived as complicit. Empirical studies applying this lens, including content analyses of party manifestos and speeches, have quantified populist rhetoric's prevalence; for instance, Kirk Hawkins's automated coding of Latin American leaders' addresses from 1990 to 2010 identified high populism scores correlating with moral framing of people-elite conflicts. Proponents argue the ideational-moralistic view facilitates causal analysis of populism's supply and demand, linking elite rhetoric to voter mobilization amid perceived institutional failures, as seen in datasets tracking populist parties' electoral gains in Europe post-2008 financial crisis. Critics, however, contend it overemphasizes homogeneity and moral purity, potentially overlooking discursive construction of "the people" or strategic adaptations, though empirical validation through cross-national surveys supports its predictive power over purely stylistic alternatives. This approach's strength lies in its falsifiability, enabling measurement via indicators like anti-elite sentiment in public opinion polls, which rose sharply in the U.S. from 20% distrust in government elites in 1964 to over 70% by 2016.

Economic and Materialist Approaches

Economic and materialist approaches to populism emphasize objective economic conditions, structural inequalities, and class-based material interests as primary drivers of populist mobilization, positing that grievances arising from resource scarcity, labor market disruptions, and unequal distribution propel "the people" against perceived economic elites. These perspectives contrast with ideational frameworks by prioritizing causal mechanisms rooted in tangible hardships over discursive constructions, arguing that populism emerges when economic shocks erode livelihoods, fostering demands for protectionist or redistributive policies. Empirical analyses within this tradition, such as those examining trade exposure, consistently link regions hit hardest by import competition—exemplified by the "China shock" from 2000 onward—to heightened support for populist figures like Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. election, where affected counties saw voting shifts of up to 2 percentage points toward populism per additional year of exposure. Materialist interpretations further integrate class dynamics, viewing populist appeals as articulations of subordinate groups' interests against dominant fractions of capital, often overlooked in discourse-centric studies. For instance, neoliberal policies since the 1970s—characterized by inflation targeting over full employment, flexible labor markets, and shareholder primacy—have widened income gaps, stagnated median wages, and increased job precarity, particularly post-2008 financial crisis, thereby fueling anti-establishment sentiments among working-class voters. Cross-national data from 50 countries between 1990 and 2018 reveal that populist regimes accumulate public debt 10% higher than non-populist counterparts, reflecting supply-side promises of expansionary fiscal measures to address these disparities, though often leading to macroeconomic instability. Right-wing populists, in particular, may align with national capitalist interests, as evidenced by leaders' business backgrounds (e.g., Germany's Alice Weidel from Goldman Sachs) and policies favoring domestic firms over universal welfare, suggesting material alliances rather than pure anti-elite rhetoric. While these approaches highlight economic determinism—where factors like rising Gini coefficients or financial crises directly predict populist vote shares—their explanatory power is tempered by evidence that economic insecurity accounts for only a modest portion of support, interacting with non-material elements like identity. Nonetheless, structural analyses persist in attributing populism's rise to globalization's losers, such as deindustrialized communities facing wage suppression and automation, which empirical models show correlate with anti-immigration and protectionist platforms across Europe and North America since the 1990s. This framework underscores causal realism by tracing populist surges to verifiable disruptions, such as hyperglobalization's concentration of gains in elite segments while displacing middle-income earners.

Strategic and Performative Approaches

The strategic approach conceptualizes populism as a deliberate political tactic employed by charismatic leaders to consolidate power by forging direct, unmediated ties with a broad base of supporters, circumventing established institutions and intermediaries such as parties or legislatures. Kurt Weyland, in his 2017 analysis, defines it as "a political strategy through which a personalist leader seeks or exercises government power based on direct, unmediated, and non-institutionalized support from large numbers of mostly unorganized followers." This framework emphasizes leader agency and rational calculation, particularly in contexts of institutional weakness, where personalized appeals exploit public discontent to bypass checks and balances, as observed in Latin American cases like Alberto Fujimori's 1990s autogolpe in Peru or Hugo Chávez's 1998 Venezuelan rise. Weyland argues this approach better accounts for populism's episodic nature and variance across regime types than ideological or economic definitions, which overemphasize content over method. Critics of the strategic view contend it underplays ideological or discursive elements, potentially conflating populism with any personalist rule, such as military dictatorships, though Weyland counters that true populism requires competitive elections and mass mobilization without full authoritarian consolidation. Empirical support draws from cross-regional comparisons, showing populist leaders succeeding where institutional mediation is low, as in early 20th-century U.S. figures like Huey Long or mid-20th-century Brazilian Getúlio Vargas, who built followings via radio broadcasts and plebiscitary appeals rather than party structures. This lens highlights causal mechanisms like leaders' opportunistic exploitation of crises, prioritizing first-principles analysis of power-seeking over structural determinism. The performative approach, in contrast, frames populism as a style of political action characterized by embodied performances, rhetorical flair, and mediated spectacles that construct an antagonistic "people" versus "elite" binary through symbolic and discursive means. Benjamin Moffitt's 2016 work posits populism not as a fixed ideology but as a "political style" enacted via "bad manners" toward norms, direct address to audiences, and appeals to crisis, amplified by media technologies from print to social platforms. This perspective, extended in collaborative efforts like the 2021 volume by Pierre Ostiguy, Francisco Panizza, and Moffitt, integrates performativity with discourse, viewing leaders' gestures—such as Donald Trump's 2015-2016 campaign rallies or Javier Milei's 2023 Argentine chainsaw symbolism—as constitutive of populist appeal, fostering identification through visceral, anti-establishment authenticity. Performative theories underscore how such styles adapt to digital eras, enabling rapid dissemination and emotional resonance, as evidenced by the 2016 Brexit campaign's slogan-driven spectacles or Narendra Modi's 2014 Indian social media orchestration of "man of the masses" imagery. Unlike strategic models focused on elite tactics, this approach reveals populism's cultural and aesthetic dimensions, critiquing institutional definitions for ignoring how performances generate loyalty independent of policy substance. However, it risks overemphasizing form over function, potentially diluting analytical precision by applying "style" too broadly, though proponents argue it captures populism's global mutations beyond Western ideological binaries. Both approaches converge in stressing agency and enactment, offering tools to dissect how populists operationalize grievances without relying on deterministic economic or moralistic priors.

Empirical Causes of Populist Mobilization

Economic Grievances and Globalization Shocks

Economic grievances, particularly those stemming from globalization-induced shocks, have been empirically linked to surges in populist mobilization in advanced economies. Trade liberalization and offshoring, accelerated by China's accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, exposed workers in import-competing sectors to significant displacement. In the United States, this "China shock" resulted in the loss of approximately 2 million manufacturing jobs between 1999 and 2011, with concentrated effects in regions reliant on textiles, furniture, and electronics production. These losses were not fully offset by reemployment in other sectors, leading to persistent wage reductions of up to 1.5% per worker in affected commuting zones and elevated rates of labor force non-participation. The distributional impacts of such shocks fostered toward elites perceived as beneficiaries of global integration, fueling support for populist candidates promising . Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2016) found that areas hardest hit by Chinese exhibited heightened , with shifts toward both left-wing economic redistribution and right-wing anti-immigration stances, though the latter predominated in electoral outcomes like the 2016 U.S. , where gained disproportionate votes in trade-exposed counties. Similarly, in , exposure to low-wage imports from developing correlated with increased vote shares for right-wing populist parties, as trade shocks amplified economic insecurity and anti-globalization sentiments without adequate responses like retraining or relocation subsidies. Empirical meta-analyses confirm a causal link between these economic insecurities—measured via job loss and income stagnation—and populist voting, though the effect size varies by context and is often mediated by local institutional trust. The 2008 global financial crisis compounded these globalization effects by triggering sharp recessions and austerity measures that deepened wage stagnation and unemployment. In the U.S., unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009, eroding household wealth by an average of $70,000 per family through housing market collapses and stock declines, which disproportionately affected middle-class savers. This crisis-induced hardship, alongside bailouts for financial institutions, bred distrust in establishment institutions, contributing to the Tea Party movement's rise by 2010 and broader anti-elite rhetoric in subsequent elections. In Europe, the ensuing sovereign debt crisis from 2010 onward led to GDP contractions of over 25% in Greece and spikes in youth unemployment exceeding 50% in Spain and Italy by 2013, correlating with gains for parties like Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain, which capitalized on grievances against technocratic austerity imposed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. While cultural factors often interact with these economic drivers, first-principles analysis of causal mechanisms reveals that unmitigated shocks disrupt expectations of upward mobility, prompting demands for sovereignty over supranational trade rules. Studies indicate that without compensatory fiscal transfers—such as those absent in the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance program—globalization's losers, typically less-educated males in deindustrializing areas, turn to populists advocating tariffs and immigration controls as remedies. However, mainstream economic models predicting net gains from trade overlook localized persistence of harm, as evidenced by ongoing income deficits in China shock regions even a decade later. This evidence underscores how policy failures to internalize adjustment costs have recurrently amplified populist appeals since the 1990s.

Cultural Backlash and Identity Erosion

![Right-wing populist parties in European national parliaments (October 2019)](./assets/Right-wing_populist_parties_in_European_national_parliaments_October2019October_2019 The cultural backlash thesis posits that populist mobilization arises from resistance to long-term societal shifts toward post-materialist values, such as greater emphasis on self-expression, gender equality, and multiculturalism, which challenge traditional hierarchical norms and national identities. This framework, developed by Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris, draws on data from the World Values Survey spanning 1981 to 2014, showing a generational clash where older cohorts adhering to authoritarian values—prioritizing obedience, security, and conventional morality—react against the rising dominance of progressive cosmopolitanism. Empirical models indicate that these cultural attitudes predict support for authoritarian populism more robustly than economic grievances alone, with regression analyses revealing that a one-standard-deviation increase in authoritarian orientations correlates with a 12-15% higher likelihood of voting for populist radicals in Western Europe. Identity erosion contributes to this dynamic through accelerated demographic and normative changes that undermine longstanding communal bonds and ethnic homogeneity. Mass immigration, particularly the 1.3 million asylum seekers arriving in Europe during the 2015-2016 migrant crisis, has heightened perceptions of cultural threat among native populations, fostering alienation in regions with rapid ethnic diversification. Surveys from the European Social Survey (2016-2018) demonstrate that individuals expressing strong national identity attachment—measured by agreement with statements like "the best way to protect the environment is to limit immigration"—are disproportionately drawn to populist parties, with opposition to multiculturalism explaining up to 20% of variance in vote intention for groups like Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), which surged from 4.7% in the 2013 federal election to 12.6% in 2017 amid these influxes. In the United States, similar patterns emerged in the 2016 presidential election, where Donald Trump's appeal resonated with voters prioritizing cultural preservation over economic redistribution, as evidenced by exit polls showing 64% of white voters without college degrees—often in deindustrialized areas experiencing relative identity dilution—backing him, linked to attitudes favoring restrictive immigration policies. The United Kingdom's Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016, yielded a 52% Leave vote, driven by cultural factors including skepticism toward EU-driven supranationalism, with multivariate analyses confirming that anti-immigration sentiment and attachment to British sovereignty outweighed income loss in predictive power. These cases underscore how perceived erosion of majority-group status—exacerbated by secularization and family structure changes, such as declining marriage rates from 7.8 per 1,000 in the US in 1970 to 6.1 in 2019—fuels demand for populist rhetoric restoring imagined past cohesion. Critics of the backlash thesis argue it overemphasizes culture at the expense of intersecting economic insecurities, yet cross-national datasets consistently affirm that controlling for income, cultural variables retain significant explanatory force, suggesting identity threats operate as proximate triggers for mobilization. In Eastern Europe, where post-communist transitions accelerated identity flux, parties like Hungary's Fidesz capitalized on narratives of ethnic preservation, achieving 49.3% in the 2018 elections by framing EU policies as existential threats to national homogeneity. This pattern highlights causal realism in populism's ascent: not mere reactionism, but a rational response to verifiable shifts in social fabric, validated by longitudinal attitude surveys tracking rising xenophobia indices from 10% in 1990 to 25% in 2010 across advanced democracies.

Institutional Failures and Elite Disconnect

Perceptions of institutional failures, including unresponsive bureaucracies and policy missteps, have contributed to populist mobilization by eroding public confidence in established systems. Following the 2008 financial crisis, European Union unemployment rose from 7% in 2007 to 11% in 2013, correlating with declines in trust toward both national governments and EU institutions across 26 countries, particularly in regions with persistent high joblessness. In Southern Europe, such as Greece and Spain where unemployment exceeded 20% in some areas, this distrust fueled support for anti-establishment parties, as mainstream institutions appeared to prioritize financial rescues over citizen welfare. Similarly, in the United States, trust in the federal government to act correctly "just about always" or "most of the time" fell to 22% by May 2024, a sharp drop from 77% in the 1960s, amid perceptions of elite favoritism in bailouts and regulatory lapses. Elite disconnect manifests in the growing cultural and experiential gaps between governing classes and broader populations, amplifying grievances over unaddressed issues like and cultural shifts. Mainstream parties' to respond to working-class concerns, such as suppression and decline, cited as a for events like the 2016 Brexit and Trump's , where voters policies seen as imposed by distant technocrats. In Europe, EU-level decisions on migration and fiscal , often bypassing national electorates, exemplified this detachment, leading to surges in populist voting in countries like Italy and Hungary despite varying economic recoveries. Empirical studies link such representation gaps—where parties neglect systemic voter priorities—to heightened populist attitudes, as citizens perceive as self-serving rather than accountable. These dynamics are reinforced by broader institutional rigidities, including corruption scandals and supranational overreach, which populists frame as evidence of systemic rot. In Latin America, collapses in trust toward political and business elites, independent of pure economic downturns, have driven populist rises in contexts like Hungary's sustained growth yet persistent anti-elite sentiment. Globally, Edelman Trust Barometer data indicate a 13-point drop in government trust by 2012, reflecting failures to deliver tangible outcomes amid globalization's disruptions. While some analyses attribute populism primarily to these breakdowns, causal evidence suggests they interact with economic and cultural factors, with institutional inertia preventing adaptive reforms that could mitigate backlash.

Role of Media and Technological Change

The perceived elitism and systemic left-leaning bias in mainstream media institutions have eroded public trust, creating opportunities for populist mobilization by framing traditional outlets as disconnected from ordinary citizens' concerns. Surveys of populist supporters reveal widespread beliefs that news media exhibit inherent bias favoring establishment views, which correlates with reduced reliance on such sources and heightened receptivity to alternative narratives. This distrust intensified in the 2010s, as coverage of events like the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent austerity measures often aligned with elite policy justifications, alienating working-class audiences who felt their economic hardships were underrepresented or minimized. Technological advancements, particularly the proliferation of and platforms from the mid-2000s onward, have enabled populists to traditional media gatekeepers and directly engage audiences. Empirical studies across demonstrate that populist parties expanded their usage annually between and , correlating with increased voter through targeted emotional appeals and anti-elite . In the United States, platforms like facilitated rapid of populist messages during the , where algorithmic amplification of polarizing content reached millions, contributing to higher among disaffected voters. Social media's low have allowed coordination, as seen in movements like , where campaigns generated over 1.5 million interactions on key platforms in the weeks leading to the . These digital tools foster echo chambers that reinforce identity-based grievances, amplifying cultural and economic resentments central to populist appeals. Research indicates that social networks promote collective identities among users, enhancing mobilization by unifying disparate groups around shared anti-establishment sentiments, with usage spikes preceding electoral surges in countries like Italy and Hungary in 2018. Algorithms prioritizing engagement often elevate simplistic, adversarial content over nuanced discourse, exacerbating polarization; for instance, a 2018 analysis found that exposure to such feeds increased support for populist candidates by 10-15% among low-information voters in multiple democracies. Broader technological shifts, including automation and digitalization since the 1990s, have interacted with media changes to heighten vulnerabilities exploited by populists. Cross-country regressions link rising digital penetration—such as broadband adoption rates exceeding 80% in OECD nations by 2015—to populist vote shares, as these technologies disseminate information on job losses from automation (affecting 14% of global workers per 2017 estimates) while enabling direct blame attribution to elites. This synergy of economic disruption and unfettered online organization has sustained mobilization, though it risks entrenching misinformation, with studies noting higher dissemination rates among right-wing populists compared to other ideologies.

Varieties of Populism

Left-Wing vs. Right-Wing Populism

Left-wing and right-wing populism share core features, including antagonism toward established s and a claim to represent the virtuous "people" against a corrupt "elite," often advocating for direct democratic mechanisms to bypass representative institutions. Both variants emerged prominently in response to globalization's disruptions, with left-wing forms emphasizing class-based and right-wing forms prioritizing national or cultural homogeneity. Empirical analyses indicate psychological overlaps, such as anti-establishment attitudes, but also ideological distinctions that shape voter mobilization and policy priorities. A primary divergence lies in the definition of "the people" and the identification of threats. Left-wing populism constructs "the people" as an inclusive socio-economic underclass transcending national boundaries, targeting systemic economic structures like corporations and financial institutions as the elite enemy. In contrast, right-wing populism defines "the people" as the native ethnic or cultural majority, viewing the elite as complicit with outsiders such as immigrants or supranational entities that erode national sovereignty. This leads left-wing rhetoric to evoke hope through promises of equality and redistribution, while right-wing appeals often center on fear of cultural displacement or security threats. Policy platforms reflect these conceptions. Left-wing populists prioritize expansive welfare states, wealth taxes, and anti-austerity measures to combat inequality, as seen in demands for nationalizing key industries or universal basic income pilots. Right-wing populists focus on protectionist trade policies, stringent immigration controls, and law-and-order enforcement, often combining economic nationalism with resistance to supranational bodies like the European Union. Studies of party manifestos show left-wing variants aligning with traditional social democracy but amplified by anti-capitalist fervor, whereas right-wing ones integrate welfare chauvinism—benefits reserved for natives—with cultural conservatism. Prominent left-wing populist examples include Bernie Sanders in the United States, whose 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns mobilized support around Medicare for All and breaking up large banks, drawing 13 million primary votes in 2016. In Europe, Syriza under Alexis Tsipras won Greece's 2015 election on anti-austerity pledges, forming a government that renegotiated EU bailout terms but later compromised on fiscal reforms. Latin American cases feature Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, who from 1999 expanded social programs via oil revenues, initially reducing poverty from 49% to 27% between 1998 and 2011, though subsequent hyperinflation exceeding 1,000,000% by 2018 highlighted risks of resource-dependent redistribution. Right-wing populism has seen broader electoral gains, particularly in Europe, where parties like Hungary's Fidesz under Viktor Orbán secured 49% of the vote in 2022, implementing border fences that reduced illegal crossings by 99% from 2015 peaks. In the United States, Donald Trump's 2016 victory, with 62.9 million votes, emphasized "America First" trade deals and wall construction, correlating with manufacturing job gains of 414,000 from 2017 to 2019 pre-COVID. Other instances include Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 Brazilian win (55% vote share), focusing on anti-corruption and pension reforms amid 13.7% GDP contraction in 2015-2016 recovery efforts, and Javier Milei's 2023 Argentine election, where austerity measures cut inflation from 211% monthly in December 2023 to under 5% by mid-2024.
AspectLeft-Wing PopulismRight-Wing Populism
Core "People", marginalized economicallyNative cultural/national
Primary Elite EnemyCapitalists, global Cosmopolitan elites, immigrants
Key PoliciesRedistribution, , economic
Recent Electoral Success; e.g., Podemos coalition in (2023)Widespread; e.g., AfD 16% in 2025
Empirical Outcomes short-term, fiscal strain long-term (e.g., )Migration controls effective, democratic risks (e.g., )
Right-wing variants have outperformed left-wing ones in recent decades, capturing working-class voters disillusioned with centrist parties, as evidenced by shifts in European Parliament seats from 2014's modest left gains to 2019's right-wing surges in 10 countries. Left-wing efforts often moderate upon governing due to institutional constraints, while right-wing governance correlates with policy persistence on identity issues but raises concerns over institutional erosion, per cross-national indicators showing declines in media freedom under prolonged populist rule. Academic sources, frequently aligned with progressive institutions, may underemphasize left-wing economic failures, such as Greece's 25% GDP drop post-Syriza austerity deals, compared to scrutiny of right-wing nativism.

Regional and Ideological Variants

Populism exhibits significant regional variations, shaped by local historical, economic, and cultural contexts, often integrating with dominant ideologies such as or . In , it predominantly takes exclusionary forms emphasizing nativism and opposition to supranational institutions like the , with parties framing "the " as ethnically homogeneous against cosmopolitan elites and immigrants. Examples include Hungary's under , which secured a supermajority in parliament in by prioritizing national sovereignty and border , and France's , which garnered 33% of the vote in the 2022 presidential election by critiquing EU migration policies. In Latin America, populism has historically been inclusionary, promising redistribution and state intervention to incorporate marginalized groups against oligarchic elites, tracing back to classical variants in the 1930s–1960s, such as Juan Perón's Argentina, where labor unions were empowered and welfare expanded from 1946 to 1955. Later waves included radical left examples like Hugo Chávez's Venezuela, which nationalized industries and used oil revenues for social programs from 1999 until economic collapse amid hyperinflation exceeding 1 million percent in 2018. Recent ideological shifts feature right-wing and libertarian strains, exemplified by Javier Milei's 2023 election in Argentina, where his anarcho-capitalist rhetoric targeted Peronist "political caste" corruption, leading to austerity measures that reduced monthly inflation from 25% in December 2023 to under 5% by mid-2024, though sparking protests over spending cuts. Asian populism often manifests as personalized strongman rule, prioritizing anti-corruption and security over ideological purity, with less emphasis on immigration compared to Europe. In India, Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party has governed since 2014, blending Hindu nationalism with populist appeals to rural voters through welfare schemes like direct cash transfers, amassing over 303 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte's 2016–2022 tenure featured authoritarian tactics, including a drug war resulting in over 6,000 deaths by official counts, framed as restoring order against elite-enabled crime, alongside foreign policy pivots like rapprochement with China. Ideologically, populism intersects with religious or libertarian strains beyond standard left-right divides; Modi's variant incorporates ethno-religious identity, portraying Hindu majorities as victimized by secular elites, while Milei's fuses with moralistic attacks on fiscal irresponsibility, rejecting central banking and advocating dollarization. These adaptations highlight populism's flexibility, often amplifying grievances like economic or cultural threats, though empirical outcomes vary, with successes in electoral but risks of institutional .

Mobilization Mechanisms

Charismatic Leaders and Rhetoric

Charismatic leadership plays a central role in many populist mobilizations, drawing on Max Weber's concept of authority derived from the leader's perceived exceptional qualities, which inspire devotion and loyalty among followers by establishing a direct, unmediated connection that bypasses rational-legal or traditional institutions. This form of authority thrives in contexts of crisis or dissatisfaction, where leaders position themselves as embodiments of the people's will, claiming to restore authenticity against elite corruption. Empirical research indicates that such charisma attribution intensifies under populist appeals, as followers become more receptive to leaders exhibiting bold, personalized styles that signal deviation from establishment norms. Populist complements this charisma by employing stark dichotomies of "the pure " versus "the corrupt ," often delivered in simplistic, emotionally resonant that amplifies grievances, fosters in-group , and vilifies opponents. Linguistic analyses of speeches by populist figures reveal consistent patterns, including elevated emotional intensity, polarization through us-versus-them framing, and expressions of institutional , which enhance among alienated audiences. Experimental studies demonstrate that this can polarize electorates and broaden support gaps, particularly when tied to right-wing positions, though its standalone electoral impact varies and does not always guarantee without substantive . Notable examples include Hugo Chávez in , who from 1999 to cultivated a through televised addresses that portrayed him as the defender of against oligarchic elites, consolidating power via repeated electoral victories and constitutional reforms. Similarly, in has mobilized supporters since the , winning supermajorities in , , and parliamentary votes by rhetorically framing the and domestic liberals as existential threats to national . In the United States, Trump's presidential campaign leveraged rally-style oratory decrying political insiders, contributing to his Electoral College win with 304 votes against Hillary Clinton's 227, by forging a personal bond with voters disillusioned by globalization's impacts. These cases illustrate how charismatic rhetoric accelerates grassroots enthusiasm, though scholarly debate persists on whether such leadership is essential to populism or merely amplifies underlying structural mobilizers.

Political Parties and Electoral Strategies

Populist political parties typically emerge either as newly founded entities or through the radical reconfiguration of established parties, often coalescing around a charismatic leader who positions themselves as the authentic representative of the people's will against corrupt elites. These parties tend to feature centralized organizational structures that prioritize loyalty to the leader over traditional bureaucratic hierarchies, enabling rapid decision-making and unified messaging. In Europe, for instance, parties like Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded in 2013, initially focused on Euroscepticism before broadening to anti-immigration stances, achieving 12.6% of the vote in the 2017 federal election. Electoral strategies of populist parties emphasize anti-elitist rhetoric to mobilize voters disillusioned with mainstream politics, portraying elections as battles between the virtuous people and self-serving establishments. They often adopt simplified, emotive communication—via rallies, social media, and direct appeals—that bypasses policy nuance in favor of promises of sovereignty restoration and accountability for perceived betrayals like economic inequality or cultural displacement. In the United States, Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign exemplified this by leveraging "Make America Great Again" slogans to critique globalist elites, securing 46.1% of the popular vote and victory in key Rust Belt states through turnout of non-college-educated white voters. Similarly, in Latin America, parties under leaders like Argentina's Javier Milei in 2023 combined libertarian economics with anti-casta (anti-caste elite) attacks, yielding 55.7% in the presidential runoff. In Europe, right-wing populist parties have seen vote share gains, with examples including Italy's Brothers of Italy obtaining 26% in 2022 and Sweden's Sweden Democrats reaching 20.5% in the same year, often by forming coalitions or influencing policy agendas post-election. Left-wing variants, such as those in Latin America, employ analogous tactics but frame struggles in class terms, as seen in Bolivia's Movement for Socialism under Evo Morales, which won 53.7% in 2005 by decrying neoliberal elites. Across regions, these parties strategically exploit institutional distrust, with analyses showing that by 2022, approximately 32% of votes in 31 European countries went to populist, far-left, or far-right anti-establishment options. Success frequently hinges on adapting to local grievances, such as immigration in Europe or corruption in Latin America, while avoiding over-reliance on programmatic detail that might alienate core supporters.

Grassroots Movements and Protests

Grassroots movements and protests constitute a core mobilization tactic in populism, enabling ordinary citizens to voice direct challenges to elite-driven policies and institutions through decentralized, often spontaneous actions. These efforts typically amplify anti-establishment sentiments by framing grievances—such as economic burdens or regulatory overreach—as products of distant, unaccountable power structures, fostering solidarity among disparate groups without reliance on formal party apparatuses. Empirical evidence from various cases shows that sustained protests can pressure governments into concessions, though success often hinges on scale, media amplification, and avoidance of co-optation by leaders. In the United States, the Tea Party movement emerged in early 2009 as a response to federal bailouts and proposed healthcare reforms under President Barack Obama, organizing tax-day protests in over 750 cities by April of that year. Drawing on fiscal conservative and libertarian themes, participants decried government overreach and debt accumulation, which had reached $11.9 trillion nationally by mid-2009; the movement's grassroots structure, fueled by local meetups and online coordination, propelled Republican gains in the 2010 midterm elections, where the party captured 63 House seats. Its influence persisted, evolving into broader anti-elite mobilizations aligned with Donald Trump's 2016 campaign, though critics noted funding from affluent donors like the Koch brothers, raising questions about its purely bottom-up nature. France's Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests, ignited in November 2018 over a proposed fuel tax increase amid stagnant wages and rural isolation, exemplified cross-class populist unrest, with weekly demonstrations peaking at 282,000 participants on November 24. Rooted in opposition to President Emmanuel Macron's perceived technocratic policies, the movement demanded citizen-initiated referendums and wealth redistribution, leading to the tax suspension in December 2018 and broader concessions worth €10 billion by 2019; violence marred some events, resulting in over 11,000 arrests, yet it exposed institutional disconnects, boosting support for anti-elite parties in subsequent elections. The Canadian protested mandates for cross-border truckers, with approximately 16,000 drivers potentially affected despite 85% vaccination rates among them; convoys blockaded from , disrupting and prompting to invoke the on —the first such use since 1988. Framed as resistance to authoritarian measures amid restrictions, the galvanized populist in federal overreach, correlating with a poll showing 38% Canadian approval of the tactics and contributing to provincial policy reversals; international protests echoed similar themes in the and . In India, the 2020–2021 farmers' protests against three agricultural laws—passed in September 2020 without adequate consultation—mobilized over million participants in strikes and Delhi sit-ins, contesting reforms seen as favoring corporate interests over smallholders reliant on minimum support prices. Sustained through farmer unions' coordination, the campaign withstood crackdowns, including blackouts and clashes killing over , culminating in the laws' on November 19, 2021; this outcome underscored efficacy against entrenched power, though often portrayed protesters as separatist, highlighting biases in accounts.

Historical Development

19th and Early 20th Centuries

The concept of populism first emerged in the Russian Empire during the 1860s and 1870s through the Narodnik movement, where radical intellectuals idealized the peasantry as bearers of communal traditions and sought to bypass industrialization by promoting agrarian socialism against tsarist autocracy. In 1874, thousands of Narodniks participated in the "Going to the People" campaign, dispersing to rural areas to agitate among peasants, though this effort largely failed due to cultural gaps and led to state repression, arrests of over 700 individuals, and a shift toward terrorism by splinter groups like Narodnaya Volya, which assassinated Tsar Alexander II in 1881. The movement's emphasis on the virtuous "people" versus corrupt elites influenced later populist ideologies, though it fragmented by the 1890s into Marxist and socialist factions. In the United States, populism manifested prominently in the late 19th century amid agrarian distress from deflation, high railroad rates, and debt following the Civil War. Farmers' Alliances, formed in Texas in 1875 and expanding nationwide to over 1 million members by 1890, organized cooperatives and advocated reforms against monopolies. These groups birthed the People's Party in 1891, which adopted the Omaha Platform in 1892 calling for free silver coinage at 16:1 ratio to gold, a graduated income tax, direct Senate elections, secret ballots, and public ownership of railroads and communications. Party candidate James B. Weaver secured 1,041,021 votes (8.5% of the popular vote) and 22 electoral votes in the 1892 presidential election, drawing support from Midwestern and Southern farmers. The American movement peaked with the 1896 fusion of Populists and Democrats behind William Jennings Bryan, whose "Cross of Gold" speech railed against Eastern monetary elites, but defeat by William McKinley (271-176 electoral votes) amid industrial recovery and gold standard victory marked its decline. By 1900, the party splintered, with membership falling below 100,000, as many reforms were co-opted by Progressives, though core demands like the income tax (ratified 1913) and direct Senate elections (1913) later succeeded. In Europe, early populist stirrings appeared in France's Boulangist crisis of 1886–1889, where General Georges Boulanger capitalized on revanchist sentiment post-Franco-Prussian War, winning 40% in partial elections by attacking parliamentary corruption and promising constitutional revision. His movement, blending nationalism and anti-elite rhetoric, mobilized urban workers and nationalists but collapsed after government exile threats in 1889, exposing tactical weaknesses without achieving systemic change. Similar anti-establishment currents surfaced in other nations, such as agrarian unrest in the Balkans, but lacked the organizational success of U.S. counterparts before World War I. Overall, 19th-century populism reflected responses to rapid economic shifts and elite detachment, prioritizing direct appeals to producers over institutional mediation, yet often faltered against entrenched powers.

Mid-20th Century in and

In during the mid-20th century, populism emerged as a dominant political style amid rapid , industrialization, and challenges from export-dependent economies vulnerable to global fluctuations. Leaders adopted charismatic appeals to , framing as a struggle between the virtuous —often urban workers and rural laborers—and corrupt elites tied to foreign interests. This "classical" populism emphasized state-led import-substitution policies, labor , and nationalist economic reforms to foster self-sufficiency and social inclusion. Juan Domingo Perón exemplified this trend in Argentina, rising to power after a 1943 military coup and winning the presidency in 1946 with 52.8% of the vote by courting trade unions and the urban poor, whom he called descamisados (the shirtless ones). His administration enacted the 1949 constitution, expanded welfare programs including paid vacations and family allowances, and nationalized the Central Bank and railways in 1948, aiming to redistribute income and assert sovereignty against British and U.S. influence. Perón's rhetoric pitted "the people" against oligarchic landowners and industrialists, consolidating support through the Peronist Party and his wife Eva's social outreach, though critics noted authoritarian controls like media censorship. He governed until ousted in a 1955 coup amid economic strains from fiscal expansion. In Brazil, Getúlio Vargas transitioned from authoritarian rule under the Estado Novo (1937–1945), which centralized power and promoted industrialization, to a populist democratic phase upon reelection in 1951. Vargas positioned himself as the protector of workers, enacting labor laws like the 1943 Consolidation of Labor Laws that guaranteed minimum wages and union , and launching the Petrobras state in 1953 to challenge foreign monopolies. His campaign mobilized urban migrants and the via radio broadcasts, securing 48.7% of the vote despite opposition from and elites; policies focused on infrastructure and protectionism but fueled inflation, leading to his suicide in 1954 amid a corruption scandal. Mexico's (1934–1940) agrarian reform and , expropriating 18 million hectares of for redistribution to ,000 peasant families through ejidos communal farms and nationalizing foreign holdings in , establishing and prompting U.S. and British boycotts resolved via compensation. Backed by mobilized peasants and workers via the of the Mexican , Cárdenas integrated indigenous and labor groups into the state apparatus, fostering a corporatist that endured post-presidency. These reforms addressed revolutionary promises but strained finances through . In Europe, mid-20th-century populism remained marginal compared to , constrained by wartime devastation, de-Nazification, and the rise of centrist welfare states amid divisions. Post-1945 reconstruction prioritized technocratic and supranational integration like the (1951), limiting space for anti-elite mobilization. However, isolated anti-establishment stirrings appeared, such as France's Poujadist movement (1953–1956), where Pierre Poujade rallied small traders against progressive taxation and , capturing 11.2% of the national vote and 52 seats in the 1956 assembly elections before fading. This reflected grievances over state overreach but lacked the enduring institutional impact seen in cases.

Late 20th Century in North America and Beyond

In the United States during the and , populist sentiments manifested in challenges to the political establishment, particularly around and federal overreach. , a and political outsider, captured 18.9% of the national popular vote in the as an independent , railing against the federal deficit, agreements like NAFTA, and entrenched Washington insiders whom he accused of neglecting ordinary . Perot's campaign emphasized direct appeals to voters through infomercials and town halls, positioning himself as a non-ideological reformer focused on fiscal discipline and reducing foreign entanglements, which resonated with disaffected middle-class voters hit by manufacturing job losses. Similarly, Pat Buchanan mounted insurgent bids within the Republican primaries in and , advocating "America First" protectionism against free deals, stricter immigration controls, and cultural preservation against perceived elite cosmopolitanism; he secured 37% in the New Hampshire primary against incumbent President George H.W. Bush, signaling intra-party fractures over economic nationalism. In Canada, the emerged as a right-wing populist in the late 1980s, founded in by amid Western provincial grievances over federal centralization and fiscal policies under the Mulroney . The criticized the "" in for favoring Eastern interests, pushing for , deficit reduction, and through referendums, which appealed to alienated prairie voters facing sector volatility. By the federal , won 52 seats, primarily in the West, disrupting the traditional brokerage system and forcing mainstream conservatives to adopt elements of its platform on issues like balanced budgets and reduced spending. This movement reflected broader late-century discontent with constitutional deals like the Meech Lake Accord, which populists viewed as elite-driven compromises ignoring popular sovereignty. Beyond North America, populist parties gained traction in during the same period, often framing national identities against supranational integration and . France's National Front, led by since its 1972 founding, surged in the 1980s with anti-immigration and opposition to EU precursors, polling 11% in the 1984 elections and 15% for Le Pen in the 1995 presidential race, drawing support from working-class voters disillusioned by economic stagnation and cultural shifts. In , the Northern League under Umberto Bossi, established in 1989, combined regional with anti-Southern and anti-immigrant populism, securing 8.4% in the 1992 general election amid scandals that eroded trust in the Christian Democratic establishment. These movements highlighted causal links between deindustrialization, rising inequality, and elite detachment, fostering direct appeals to "the people" over institutional mediation, though mainstream sources often downplayed their empirical bases in voter turnout data showing gains among non-college-educated demographics.

21st-Century Resurgence

Post-2008 Financial Crisis Trends

The 2008 global financial crisis, triggered by the collapse of major financial institutions and subprime mortgage defaults, precipitated a severe recession that eroded public trust in economic elites and political establishments. Unemployment in the United States reached 10% in October 2009, while the Eurozone average climbed to 12% by 2013, exacerbating income inequality and perceptions of unfair bailouts favoring banks over ordinary citizens. Empirical analyses indicate that these shocks, combined with austerity measures in Europe, fostered a "trust crisis" that boosted support for populist parties by channeling economic insecurity into anti-establishment sentiment. In Europe, the crisis amplified both left-wing and right-wing populism, particularly in countries hit hardest by sovereign debt issues. Greece's Syriza party, advocating debt repudiation and anti-austerity policies, surged from 4.7% in 2009 to 36.3% in the January 2015 legislative election, forming a coalition government. Italy's Five Star Movement, blending anti-corruption rhetoric with economic grievances, captured 25.6% of the vote in 2013, reflecting discontent with EU-imposed fiscal constraints. Right-wing parties like France's National Front (renamed National Rally) saw vote shares rise from 4.3% in 2007 to 13.6% in the 2012 presidential first round, linking economic woes to immigration and elite detachment. Studies attribute these gains to localized unemployment spikes, with a 1% increase correlating to higher non-mainstream voting in affected regions. In the United States, the Tea Party movement emerged in 2009 as a grassroots response to bailouts and stimulus spending, influencing the Republican Party's 2010 midterm gains, where it helped secure 63 House seats for challengers emphasizing fiscal conservatism and opposition to Washington insiders. Concurrently, left-leaning Occupy Wall Street protests in 2011 highlighted the "1% versus 99%" divide, amplifying demands for wealth redistribution amid stagnant median wages post-crisis. Latin America experienced continuity in left populism, with figures like Venezuela's Hugo Chávez maintaining power through resource nationalism until his 2013 death, though the crisis indirectly fueled commodity busts that later undermined such regimes by 2015. Overall, post-2008 trends revealed populism's dual appeal: right-wing variants stressing cultural identity and sovereignty against supranational bodies like the EU, and left-wing focusing on economic redistribution, both capitalizing on empirical evidence of elite policy failures during the recession. While academic sources often emphasize material causes like inequality—Gini coefficients rose in many OECD countries from 0.31 in 2008 to 0.32 by 2015—causal links to voting shifts hold after controlling for cultural factors, underscoring the crisis as a catalyst rather than sole driver.

Key Events and Elections 2016–2025

In June 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union, with 51.9% of voters opting to leave on June 23, marking a significant populist challenge to supranational integration. The Leave campaign, led by figures emphasizing immigration controls and national sovereignty, secured 17.4 million votes against 16.1 million for Remain, influencing subsequent debates on elite detachment from public concerns. The November 8, 2016, U.S. presidential election saw Republican candidate Donald Trump defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton, capturing 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227 despite trailing in the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. Trump's platform, centered on trade protectionism, border security, and criticism of political insiders, mobilized working-class voters in Rust Belt states, flipping key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. European parliamentary elections in May 2019 highlighted populist advances, with parties like France's National Rally and Italy's League gaining seats amid voter discontent over migration and economic stagnation. National contests followed, including Sweden's 2022 election where the Sweden Democrats' support propelled a right-leaning coalition to power, and Italy's September 25, 2022, general election where Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy secured 26% of the vote, enabling her to form a government as Italy's first female prime minister. In Latin America, Argentina's October 22, 2023, general election resulted in libertarian economist Javier Milei's victory with 55.7% in the runoff, defeating the Peronist candidate amid hyperinflation exceeding 200% annually.754610) Milei's campaign targeted fiscal profligacy and state overreach, promising dollarization and deregulation.754610) The June 2024 European Parliament elections saw radical-right groups, including Identity and Democracy, expand representation, with France's National Rally topping the poll at 31.4% and prompting President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly. In the U.S., Trump reclaimed the presidency on November 5, 2024, winning all seven swing states and 312 electoral votes against Kamala Harris's 226, buoyed by gains among Hispanic and Black male voters. This outcome reflected persistent anti-incumbent sentiment, with Trump's margin in popular vote reaching 1.5 percentage points.

Achievements and Positive Impacts

Policy Reforms and Economic Gains

Populist administrations have pursued policy reforms aimed at dismantling entrenched bureaucratic and elite-driven structures, often prioritizing fiscal discipline, deregulation, and market liberalization to restore economic vitality. In the United States under President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2020, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of December 2017 lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which proponents attribute to increased business investment and wage growth, contributing to an average annual GDP expansion of 2.5% through 2019 and a peak unemployment rate of 3.5% in late 2019. Deregulatory efforts, including the repeal of over 20,000 pages of federal regulations, facilitated energy sector independence, with U.S. crude oil production reaching a record 12.3 million barrels per day by 2019, bolstering trade balances and reducing reliance on imports. In Argentina, President Javier Milei's libertarian reforms following his December 2023 election emphasized austerity and structural overhaul. The Ley Ómnibus and subsequent Ley de Bases legislation in 2024 enabled a 30% reduction in public spending, achieving the nation's first primary fiscal surplus in 14 years by year-end, equivalent to 0.3% of GDP. Inflation, which exceeded 211% annually in 2023, declined sharply to a monthly rate of 2.1% by September 2025, while GDP contracted initially but rebounded with 6.3% year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2025, accompanied by a 32% surge in investment. Poverty rates fell from 53% to 38% by late 2024, reflecting improved fiscal stability and private sector confidence amid the dismantling of subsidies and state interventions. These cases illustrate how populist challenges to policies can yield measurable economic improvements by enforcing budgetary realism and incentivizing , though short-term disruptions such as recessions in underscore the trade-offs involved. Empirical from these periods highlight correlations between reduced overreach and indicators like employment and output growth, contrasting with pre-reform stagnation often linked to prior elite-favored interventions.

Enhanced Democratic Accountability

Populist movements and parties often enhance democratic by mobilizing previously disengaged voters and compelling established elites to address overlooked grievances, thereby invigorating electoral participation. Empirical of 315 elections across 31 European democracies from the onward reveals that voter turnout rises when populist parties secure parliamentary representation, as their presence stimulates and draws in apathetic citizens who perceive traditional parties as unresponsive. This effect stems from populism's emphasis on representing the "pure " against entrenched interests, which pressures politicians to align more closely with preferences to avoid electoral displacement. A core mechanism involves advocacy for direct democratic tools, such as referendums, which circumvent intermediary elites and empower citizens to decide pivotal issues. Populist actors frequently promote these instruments to restore sovereignty and enforce accountability, as evidenced by heightened manifesto pledges for referendums among populist parties compared to non-populists. The United Kingdom's 2016 Brexit referendum, driven by populist campaigns against supranational bureaucracy, transferred decision-making authority back to national voters, enabling control over borders, laws, and fiscal policy—outcomes framed as reclaiming democratic self-governance from unaccountable EU structures. Similarly, in contexts like Switzerland's longstanding referendum system—influenced by populist pressures—such mechanisms have sustained high civic engagement without eroding institutional stability. In governing roles, populists have pursued structural reforms to fortify vertical accountability between rulers and the electorate. Italy's Giorgia Meloni administration, assuming power in October 2022, advanced a constitutional amendment approved by the Senate on June 18, 2024, to institute direct popular election of the prime minister, reducing coalition dependencies and enhancing the executive's mandate from voters rather than party bartering. This "premierato" proposal aims to curb governmental instability—Italy experienced over 60 governments since 1946—by tying leadership legitimacy directly to public will, a reform rooted in populist critiques of fragmented representation. Such initiatives, while contested, underscore populism's potential to recalibrate systems toward greater voter oversight, though outcomes depend on implementation amid opposition from entrenched parliamentary interests. Populism's anti-elite orientation further bolsters accountability by diffusing distrust, forcing mainstream parties to co-opt popular demands on issues like immigration and economic protectionism, which sharpens policy alignment with median voter concerns. In Latin America and Europe, populist surges have correlated with expanded agenda-setting for neglected topics, fostering a more responsive political class without necessitating full power capture. However, these gains hinge on competitive multiparty dynamics, where populist threats incentivize elite adaptation rather than entrenchment.

Resistance to Supranational Overreach

Populist leaders and movements have positioned themselves against supranational entities such as the European Union (EU), emphasizing national sovereignty over centralized authority that they argue dilutes democratic accountability. In Europe, this resistance manifests in opposition to EU policies on migration, fiscal integration, and foreign affairs, where populist governments have leveraged veto powers to block initiatives perceived as infringing on domestic control. For instance, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly challenged EU directives, including vetoing sanctions against Russia and opposing Ukraine's EU accession to safeguard Hungarian interests in energy and security. The 's exemplifies populist-driven pushback, with 51.9% of voters approving departure from the amid campaigns highlighting ' overreach in , , and regulatory powers. Post-, the regained over its borders, independent agreements like the UK-Japan deal and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for accession, free from constraints. This shift allowed alignment with national priorities, such as reducing regulatory burdens in sectors like and previously dictated by quotas. In the United States, the Trump administration pursued sovereignty through withdrawals from multilateral pacts, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership in January 2017 to prevent ceding trade authority to an international commission, and the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 (effective 2020) to avoid economic constraints on domestic energy production. These actions, framed under an "America First" doctrine, renegotiated deals like NAFTA into the USMCA in 2018, incorporating stronger labor and environmental standards enforceable by national mechanisms rather than supranational arbitration. Such moves preserved U.S. leverage in international relations, prioritizing verifiable national gains over collective commitments often criticized for uneven enforcement. Across these cases, populist resistance has compelled supranational bodies to confront concerns, fostering debates on and prompting reforms like the EU's push for qualified voting in to bypass vetoes, though implementation remains contested. Empirical outcomes include flexibility, as seen in Hungary's defiance of EU migration quotas since , which correlated with lower irregular crossings compared to compliant neighbors. This approach underscores populism's in reasserting democratic at the nation-state level against elite-driven .

Criticisms and Negative Outcomes

Erosion of Institutional Norms

Populist governance frequently involves portraying established institutions as captured by self-serving elites, prompting leaders to pursue reforms that critics contend undermine core democratic norms such as , , and . In practice, this has manifested in measures like centralizing control over courts and regulatory bodies, often justified as efforts but resulting in reduced institutional . Empirical analyses, including a global database of over 50 populist episodes, indicate that such regimes correlate with measurable declines in democratic indicators, including a 10-15% average drop in rule-of-law scores during their tenure. In , Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's party, in power since 2010, enacted constitutional amendments and laws that expanded executive influence over the , media, and electoral processes. By 2018, the government had appointed loyalists to key judicial positions and consolidated control over , leading to Hungary's classification as a "hybrid regime" by indices tracking democratic quality; the in 2022 deemed it an "electoral " due to persistent despite repeated electoral victories. These changes facilitated unchecked executive actions, including opaque public procurement that favored party allies, eroding transparency norms established post-. Poland's (PiS) party, governing from 2015 to 2023, pursued similar judicial overhauls, lowering the retirement age for judges to force resignations and creating disciplinary bodies to sanction unfavorable rulings, which violated legal standards and Poland's . This resulted in the packing of the Constitutional Tribunal with 15 PiS-aligned judges by 2016, paralyzing its independence and enabling policies like media that sidelined critical outlets. Restoration efforts post-2023 have faced institutional resistance, highlighting entrenched changes to norms. Beyond Europe, Brazil under President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023) exemplified attacks on electoral institutions, with unfounded fraud claims culminating in the January 8, 2023, riots targeting government buildings, mirroring patterns of norm erosion tied to populist distrust of oversight mechanisms. Cross-regional reviews confirm that populist incumbents systematically weaken checks and balances, though institutional legacies like pre-existing rule-of-law strength can mitigate severity; in weaker systems, erosion accelerates via executive decrees bypassing legislatures. While proponents argue these actions reclaim sovereignty from unaccountable bureaucracies, data from sources like V-Dem show net declines in deliberative and egalitarian components of under such rule.

Polarization and Governance Challenges

Populist mobilization frequently exacerbates affective polarization, defined as emotional hostility between political in-groups and out-groups, through that starkly contrasts "the pure people" against "corrupt elites" or establishment foes. Empirical analyses across contexts demonstrate bidirectional effects: populist heightens negative partisanship among supporters by reinforcing zero-sum perceptions of political conflict, while also provoking reciprocal animosity from opponents who view populism as an existential threat to norms. For instance, voters aligned with populist parties exhibit elevated levels of affective polarization compared to non-populist counterparts, with survey experiments showing that anti-elite messaging amplifies blame attribution to external adversaries. In the United States, the ascent of figures like correlated with spikes in partisan antipathy, as tracked by longitudinal surveys revealing that by 2020, over 80% of both Republicans and Democrats viewed the opposing party as a " to the nation's vital interests," up from roughly 50% in the early —a trend accelerated by populist framing of elections as battles for survival. European cases mirror this dynamic: the electoral gains of parties such as France's or Italy's have intensified cleavages, with populist representation linked to broader societal polarization along cultural and axes, as evidenced by rising support for exclusionary policies amid heightened inter-party . Such patterns persist despite pre-existing divides, as populism's constitutive logic—positing moral majorities against pluralistic minorities—systematically widens perceptual gaps, even when ideological positions show convergence among mainstream parties responding to populist pressures. This intensified polarization undermines by eroding deliberative processes and institutional trust, fostering environments where is cast as betrayal rather than . Populist administrations often prioritize executive dominance and loyalty-based appointments, politicizing neutral bureaucracies and complicating routine policy execution amid constant opposition framing as sabotage. Empirical assessments of populist-ruled economies reveal correlated declines in macroeconomic stability, with episodes of fiscal leading to spikes—such as Venezuela's exceeding 1 million percent annually under Chávez and Maduro—or institutional erosion that hampers long-term , as seen in cross-national data linking populist tenures to reduced rule-of-law scores. In , under illustrates governance strains: since 2010, centralization of media and judicial oversight has yielded short-term policy agility but provoked sanctions and investor hesitancy, with indices documenting a shift from "free" to "partly free" status by due to curtailed checks and balances. Similarly, Poland's party (PiS) governance from 2015 to 2023 involved purging independent regulators, correlating with polarized legislative gridlock and judicial delays that impeded fund disbursements exceeding €100 billion in frozen aid. These cases highlight a recurring challenge: while populists capitalize on administrative weaknesses for rapid reforms, sustained rule often amplifies factional conflicts, reducing state capacity for evidence-based decision-making and international , as populist leaders report less accurate data to global bodies. Overall, such dynamics contribute to democratic , where polarization entrenches veto points and executive overreach, though critics of anti-populist narratives argue that elite resistance exacerbates these perceptions of dysfunction.

Empirical Evidence of Failures

Empirical analyses of populist governance reveal patterns of economic mismanagement and policy reversals in several cases, particularly where leaders prioritized short-term redistribution over structural reforms, leading to fiscal imbalances and institutional erosion. In , left-wing populist regimes have exhibited recurrent failures, with under and providing a stark example: the country's GDP contracted by over 75% in real terms from 2013 to 2021, accompanied by peaking at 1.7 million percent in 2018, widespread shortages of basic goods, and a mass exodus of over 7 million citizens by 2024. These outcomes stemmed from nationalizations, , and currency mismanagement that deterred investment and depleted oil revenues, despite comprising 95% of exports, resulting in the largest peacetime in modern history outside of war. Argentina's Peronist governments, spanning Juan Perón's era to recent Kirchnerist administrations, demonstrate cyclical instability tied to populist fiscal expansion: the country experienced eight debt defaults since , with inflation averaging 189% annually under Néstor and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2003–2015), culminating in a 2023 rate exceeding 200% and rates surpassing 50%. Policies emphasizing wage hikes, subsidies, and money printing without productivity gains eroded reserves and fueled , contrasting with periods of market-oriented reforms that yielded temporary growth. Empirical studies link this to weakened constitutional checks post-1930s, enabling unchecked executive discretion that perpetuated boom-bust cycles. In , Greece's government (2015–2019), led by , campaigned against but capitulated to creditors after failed negotiations, implementing deeper cuts than predecessors: public debt rose from 180% of GDP in 2015 to 206% by 2018, unemployment lingered above 17%, and GDP contracted an additional 0.2% in 2016 despite promises of expansion. Internal party fractures and inability to mobilize alternatives to constraints led to electoral erosion, with 's vote share dropping from 36% in 2015 to 31% in 2019, underscoring challenges in translating anti-elite into viable amid supranational dependencies. Italy's , in coalition from 2018–2021, similarly faltered through organizational disarray and policy incoherence: its digital platform Rousseau collapsed amid data breaches and legal disputes, while yielded minimal reforms, contributing to a 2022 vote collapse to under 20% from 32% in 2018, as anti-establishment promises dissolved into bureaucratic . Cross-national econometric reviews, such as those examining post-2008 populist episodes, find that such regimes often underperform on growth and : a study of 51 countries showed populist incumbents correlating with 10% higher fiscal deficits and 1.5% lower annual GDP growth compared to non-populists, driven by and weakened , though causation varies by left-right orientation and external shocks. These cases highlight causal links between populist anti-expert stances and policy errors, yet academic sources critiquing them occasionally reflect institutional biases favoring supranational consensus, potentially overstating ideological faults over evidentiary failures in execution.

Controversies and Debates

Populism as Democratic Corrective vs. Illiberal Threat

Scholars debate whether populism serves as a corrective mechanism for representative democracy's shortcomings, such as elite entrenchment and policy disconnects from voter preferences, or constitutes an inherent threat to liberal democratic norms by prioritizing majoritarian rule over institutional constraints. Proponents of the corrective view argue that populism emerges in response to systemic failures, including economic stagnation and unaddressed grievances like immigration and globalization's uneven impacts, thereby reinvigorating participation and forcing accountability on unresponsive establishments. Empirical analyses indicate that populist support correlates with individual-level representation gaps rather than wholesale systemic breakdowns, suggesting it channels legitimate demands for policy realignment, as seen in electoral surges addressing ignored issues like trade imbalances and cultural displacement. In opposition, populist movements have compelled mainstream parties to adopt reforms, enhancing overall democratic responsiveness without necessarily eroding pluralism. Critics, often from liberal academic and institutional perspectives that may exhibit bias toward status quo arrangements, contend that populism in power undermines horizontal accountability, civil liberties, and rule-of-law principles by framing institutions as elite conspiracies against the "pure people." A global database of 51 populist episodes from 1900 to 2016 found that such governments reduced democratic quality by an average of 10 points on standardized indices, through tactics like judicial packing and media suppression. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán's Fidesz, in office since 2010, has overseen constitutional amendments centralizing power, gerrymandering districts to secure supermajorities (e.g., 49% vote share yielding 67% seats in 2018), and state capture of over 80% of media outlets, contributing to Hungary's classification as a "hybrid regime" by indices like V-Dem, with declines in electoral fairness and judicial independence. Similar patterns appear in Poland under Law and Justice (PiS) from 2015-2023, where court reforms and public broadcaster politicization eroded liberal components, though electoral turnover occurred in 2023. However, evidence tempers the authoritarian inevitability narrative: transitions from populism to full remain rare, with most cases reverting via s or retaining competitive elements, as in Hungary's persistent multiparty contests despite imbalances. , Trump's 2017-2021 term challenged norms through attacks on media and but did not dismantle institutional checks; federal courts blocked numerous executive actions, impeached him twice, and power transferred peacefully post-2020 , underscoring resilience in established systems. This duality highlights populism's context-dependence: corrective where institutions adapt to popular input, threatening where weak safeguards enable entrenchment, with outcomes hinging on pre-existing democratic robustness rather than populism's essence. Mainstream characterizations of populism as uniformly illiberal often overlook these contingencies, potentially reflecting institutional incentives to defend elite-mediated over direct accountability.

Empirical Validity of Anti-Populist Narratives

Anti-populist narratives frequently assert that populist leads to sustained economic underperformance through irresponsible fiscal policies and of institutional expertise. Aggregate studies, such as one analyzing 51 populist leaders from 1900 to 2020, report that GDP is approximately 10% lower after 15 years under populist rule compared to non-populist counterparts, attributing this to inflationary pressures and reduced growth. However, these findings draw from historical data spanning diverse contexts, including interwar episodes of , and may overgeneralize to contemporary cases where populists operate within market economies. In under the (PiS) party from 2015 to 2023, disposable income inequality declined as measured by Gini coefficients, alongside robust GDP growth averaging 4.5% annually pre-COVID, driven by social transfers and spending that lifted millions from poverty without derailing fiscal stability until external shocks. Similarly, under Viktor Orbán's since 2010 achieved average annual GDP growth of 2.5% through 2019, exceeding averages in some years, though recent stagnation post-2022 highlights vulnerabilities from reliance on funds and . These outcomes challenge blanket claims of economic ruin, suggesting that short-to-medium-term gains from redistributive policies can materialize without immediate , even if long-term risks from reduced independence of central banks persist. On democratic backsliding, critics contend that populism inherently undermines checks and balances, fostering authoritarian tendencies. Empirical assessments indicate populists are more prone to such erosion, with one analysis finding 23% of populist governments causing significant democratic decline versus 6% for non-populists, often through media capture and judicial reforms. Hungary exemplifies this, where Orbán's constitutional changes since 2011 centralized power, correlating with declines in Freedom House scores from "free" to "partly free." Yet, causality is contested; backsliding often precedes or coincides with populist rises as responses to prior elite failures, rather than populism as the primary driver. In the U.S. under Donald Trump (2017-2021), institutional norms faced pressure via attacks on media and judiciary, but no systemic overthrow occurred, with peaceful power transition despite 2020 election disputes; the economy, meanwhile, saw unemployment fall to 3.5% by 2019 and S&P 500 gains of over 50% from inauguration. Poland's PiS maintained competitive elections, with opposition victories in 2023, indicating resilience absent in pure authoritarian shifts. Such variances undermine monocausal narratives, as populist "threats" often manifest selectively in illiberal democracies rather than universally eroding pluralism. Assertions linking populism to inevitable authoritarianism lack uniform empirical support, with studies showing ideological affinity but not deterministic outcomes. While populists emphasize "the people" versus elites, potentially justifying power concentration, many regimes—such as Italy's under or Argentina's under —have adhered to electoral cycles without suspending constitutions. Critiques of anti-populist alarmism argue it conflates rhetorical style with institutional subversion, ignoring how established parties have similarly weakened norms in non-populist contexts. Academic sources advancing strong causal claims often emanate from institutions predisposed against populism, potentially amplifying correlations into predictions while downplaying populist responses to genuine grievances like inequality or migration strains. Overall, while risks exist, the evidence reveals anti-populist narratives as overstated, with successes in and policy responsiveness tempering doomsday prognoses.

Balanced Assessment of Long-Term Effects

Empirical analyses of historical populist episodes, spanning over 60 cases from 1900 to 2020, indicate that economies under populist rule experience an average decline in real GDP per capita of approximately 10% in the 15 years following a populist government's tenure, attributed to expansionary fiscal policies, protectionism, and institutional disruptions. These patterns hold across left- and right-wing variants, with populists often prioritizing short-term redistribution or nationalism over sustainable growth, leading to higher inflation and reduced investment. However, such aggregate findings draw heavily from interwar and mid-20th-century examples, where populism frequently coincided with economic crises or authoritarian turns, potentially overstating applicability to contemporary democratic contexts where electoral accountability persists. In democratic institutions, long-term populist governance correlates with measurable declines in civil liberties and horizontal accountability, as evidenced by global databases tracking over 50 populist incumbencies since 1990, which show reduced media freedom and judicial independence persisting up to a decade post-tenure. Hungary under Viktor Orbán since 2010 exemplifies this, with sustained electoral success alongside centralized control over media and judiciary, resulting in stalled EU convergence and recent economic stagnation amid high inflation (peaking at 25% in 2023) and low growth (1.6% in 2023). Yet, Orbán's policies achieved unemployment below 4% and GDP per capita growth from $13,000 PPP in 2010 to over $40,000 by 2023, suggesting that targeted illiberal reforms can yield resilience against external shocks like the 2008 crisis, though at the cost of innovation and foreign investment. Counterexamples from recent right-wing populism highlight potential for positive reversals through deregulation and fiscal discipline. In Argentina, Javier Milei's administration since December 2023 achieved a primary budget surplus for the first time in 14 years by mid-2024, slashed monthly inflation from 25% to 2.1% by September 2025, and reduced poverty from 53% to 38% by late 2024, alongside 6.3% GDP growth in Q2 2025. These gains stem from dismantling Peronist-era subsidies and currency controls, illustrating how populist appeals to anti-elite sentiment can catalyze structural reforms neglected by establishment governments, though sustainability depends on midterm electoral outcomes and resistance from entrenched interests. In the U.S., Donald Trump's 2017-2021 term boosted pre-COVID GDP growth to 2.5% annually and unemployment to 3.5%, with tax cuts spurring investment, effects partially enduring despite subsequent reversals; democratic institutions withstood challenges like the January 6 events without systemic collapse. Overall, long-term effects hinge on populist subtype and context: left-wing variants often amplify fiscal imbalances, while right-wing ones may enforce market-oriented corrections, as in Milei's case, but risk entrenching personalized rule if checks weaken. Academic consensus on uniform harm overlooks causal factors like pre-existing elite capture or global shocks, with biased indices (e.g., from NGOs critiqued for ideological tilt) exaggerating democratic decay in electorally competitive settings. Future trajectories, as in Italy under Giorgia Meloni since 2022, remain observational, with early stability in debt management but limited data on growth divergence from EU peers. Rigorous assessment requires disaggregating rhetoric from policy causality, privileging metrics like sustained productivity over narrative-driven decline attributions.

References

  1. https://www.[sciencedirect](/page/ScienceDirect)/science/article/abs/pii/S0176268024001216
  2. https://journals.sagepub.[com](/page/.com)/doi/full/10.1177/13540688231184626
  3. https://www.populismstudies.[org](/page/.org)/digital-populism-the-internet-and-the-rise-of-right-wing-populism/
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