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Renewable energy
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Renewable energy (also called green energy) is energy made from renewable natural resources that are replenished on a human timescale. The most widely used renewable energy types are solar energy, wind power, and hydropower. Bioenergy and geothermal power are also significant in some countries. Some also consider nuclear power a renewable power source, although this is controversial, as nuclear energy requires mining uranium, a nonrenewable resource. Renewable energy installations can be large or small and are suited for both urban and rural areas. Renewable energy is often deployed together with further electrification. This has several benefits: electricity can move heat and vehicles efficiently and is clean at the point of consumption.[1][2] Variable renewable energy sources are those that have a fluctuating nature, such as wind power and solar power. In contrast, controllable renewable energy sources include dammed hydroelectricity, bioenergy, or geothermal power.

Renewable energy systems have rapidly become more efficient and cheaper over the past 30 years.[3] A large majority of worldwide newly installed worldwide electricity capacity is now renewable.[4] Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, have seen significant cost reductions over the past decade, making them more competitive with traditional fossil fuels.[5] In some geographic localities, photovoltaic solar or onshore wind is the cheapest new-build electricity.[6] From 2011 to 2021, renewable energy grew from 20% to 28% of the global electricity supply. Power from the sun and wind accounted for most of this increase, growing from a combined 2% to 10%. Use of fossil energy shrank from 68% to 62%.[7] In 2024, renewables accounted for over 30% of global electricity generation and are projected to reach over 45% by 2030.[8][9] Many countries already have renewables contributing more than 20% of their total energy supply, with some generating over half or even all their electricity from renewable sources.[10][11]
The main motivation to use renewable energy instead of fossil fuels is to slow and eventually stop climate change, which is mostly caused by their greenhouse gas emissions. In general, renewable energy sources pollute much less than fossil fuels.[12] The International Energy Agency estimates that to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, 90% of global electricity will need to be generated by renewables.[13] Renewables also cause much less air pollution than fossil fuels, improving public health, and are less noisy.[12]
The deployment of renewable energy still faces obstacles, especially fossil fuel subsidies,[14] lobbying by incumbent power providers,[15] and local opposition to the use of land for renewable installations.[16][17] Like all mining, the extraction of minerals required for many renewable energy technologies also results in environmental damage.[18] In addition, although most renewable energy sources are sustainable, some are not.
Overview
[edit]Definition
[edit]Renewable energy is usually understood as energy harnessed from continuously occurring natural phenomena. The International Energy Agency defines it as "energy derived from natural processes that are replenished at a faster rate than they are consumed". Solar power, wind power, hydroelectricity, geothermal energy, and biomass are widely agreed to be the main types of renewable energy.[21] Renewable energy often displaces conventional fuels in four areas: electricity generation, hot water/space heating, transportation, and rural (off-grid) energy services.[22]
Although almost all forms of renewable energy cause much fewer carbon emissions than fossil fuels, the term is not synonymous with low-carbon energy. Some non-renewable sources of energy, such as nuclear power,[contradictory]generate almost no emissions, while some renewable energy sources can be very carbon-intensive, such as the burning of biomass if it is not offset by planting new plants.[12] Renewable energy is also distinct from sustainable energy, a more abstract concept that seeks to group energy sources based on their overall permanent impact on future generations of humans. For example, biomass is often associated with unsustainable deforestation.[23]
Role in addressing climate change
[edit]As part of the global effort to limit climate change, most countries have committed to net zero greenhouse gas emissions.[24] In practice, this means phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with low-emissions energy sources.[12] This much needed process, coined as "low-carbon substitutions"[25] in contrast to other transition processes including energy additions, needs to be accelerated multiple times in order to successfully mitigate climate change.[25] At the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, around three-quarters of the world's countries set a goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.[26] The European Union aims to generate 40% of its electricity from renewables by the same year.[27]
Other benefits
[edit]Renewable energy is more evenly distributed around the world than fossil fuels, which are concentrated in a limited number of countries.[28] It also brings health benefits by reducing air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The potential worldwide savings in health care costs have been estimated at trillions of dollars annually.[29]
Intermittency
[edit]

The two most important forms of renewable energy, solar and wind, are intermittent energy sources: they are not available constantly, resulting in lower capacity factors. In contrast, fossil fuel power plants, nuclear power plants and hydropower are usually able to produce precisely the amount of energy an electricity grid requires at a given time. Solar energy can only be captured during the day, and ideally in cloudless conditions. Wind power generation can vary significantly not only day-to-day, but even month-to-month.[30] This poses a challenge when transitioning away from fossil fuels: energy demand will often be higher or lower than what renewables can provide.[31]
In the medium-term, this variability may require keeping some gas-fired power plants or other dispatchable generation on standby[32][33] until there is enough energy storage, demand response, grid improvement, or base load power from non-intermittent sources. In the long-term, energy storage is an important way of dealing with intermittency.[34] Using diversified renewable energy sources and smart grids can also help flatten supply and demand.[35]
Sector coupling of the power generation sector with other sectors may increase flexibility: for example the transport sector can be coupled by charging electric vehicles and sending electricity from vehicle to grid.[36] Similarly the industry sector can be coupled by hydrogen produced by electrolysis,[37] and the buildings sector by thermal energy storage for space heating and cooling.[38]
Building overcapacity for wind and solar generation can help ensure sufficient electricity production even during poor weather. In optimal weather, it may be necessary to curtail energy generation if it is not possible to use or store excess electricity.[39]
Electrical energy storage
[edit]Electrical energy storage is a collection of methods used to store electrical energy. Electrical energy is stored during times when production (especially from intermittent sources such as wind power, tidal power, solar power) exceeds consumption, and returned to the grid when production falls below consumption. Pumped-storage hydroelectricity accounts for more than 85% of all grid power storage.[40] Batteries are increasingly being deployed for storage[41] and grid ancillary services[42] and for domestic storage.[43] Green hydrogen is a more economical means of long-term renewable energy storage, in terms of capital expenditures compared to pumped hydroelectric or batteries.[44][45]
Energy supply security
[edit]Two main renewable energy sources - solar power and wind power - are usually deployed in distributed generation architecture, which offers specific benefits and comes with specific risks.[46] Notable risks are associated with centralisation of 90% of the supply chains in a single country (China) in the photovoltaic sector.[47] Mass-scale installation of photovoltaic power inverters with remote control, security vulnerabilities and backdoors results in cyberattacks that can disable generation from millions of physically decentralised panels, resulting in disappearance of hundreds of gigawatts of installed power from the grid in one moment.[48][49] Similar attacks have targeted wind power farms through vulnerabilities in their remote control and monitoring systems.[50] The European NIS2 directive partially responds to these challenges by extending the scope of cybersecurity regulations to the energy generation market.[51]
Mainstream technologies
[edit]
Solar energy
[edit]| Installed capacity and other key design parameters | Value and year |
|---|---|
| Global electricity power generation capacity | 1419.0 GW (2023)[53] |
| Global electricity power generation capacity annual growth rate | 25% (2014-2023)[54] |
| Share of global electricity generation | 5.5% (2023)[55] |
| Levelized cost per megawatt hour | Utility-scale photovoltaics: USD 38.343 (2019)[56] |
| Primary technologies | Photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, solar thermal collector |
| Main applications | Electricity, water heating, heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) |
Solar power produced around 1.3 terrawatt-hours (TWh) worldwide in 2022,[10] representing 4.6% of the world's electricity. Almost all of this growth has happened since 2010.[57] Solar energy can be harnessed anywhere that receives sunlight; however, the amount of solar energy that can be harnessed for electricity generation is influenced by weather conditions, geographic location and time of day.[58]
There are two mainstream ways of harnessing solar energy: solar thermal, which converts solar energy into heat; and photovoltaics (PV), which converts it into electricity.[12] PV is far more widespread, accounting for around two thirds of the global solar energy capacity as of 2022.[59] It is also growing at a much faster rate, with 170 GW newly installed capacity in 2021,[60] compared to 25 GW of solar thermal.[59]
Passive solar refers to a range of construction strategies and technologies that aim to optimize the distribution of solar heat in a building. Examples include solar chimneys,[12] orienting a building to the sun, using construction materials that can store heat, and designing spaces that naturally circulate air.[61]
From 2020 to 2022, solar technology investments almost doubled from USD 162 billion to USD 308 billion, driven by the sector's increasing maturity and cost reductions, particularly in solar photovoltaic (PV), which accounted for 90% of total investments. China and the United States were the main recipients, collectively making up about half of all solar investments since 2013. Despite reductions in Japan and India due to policy changes and COVID-19, growth in China, the United States, and a significant increase from Vietnam's feed-in tariff program offset these declines. Globally, the solar sector added 714 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) capacity between 2013 and 2021, with a notable rise in large-scale solar heating installations in 2021, especially in China, Europe, Turkey, and Mexico.[62] In 2023, global solar power capacity grew by nearly 30%, driven by falling panel prices and expanded government incentives worldwide.[63]
Photovoltaics
[edit]
A photovoltaic system, consisting of solar cells assembled into panels, converts light into electrical direct current via the photoelectric effect.[66][67] PV has several advantages that make it by far the fastest-growing renewable energy technology. It is cheap, low-maintenance and scalable; adding to an existing PV installation as demanded arises is simple. Its main disadvantage is its poor performance in cloudy weather.[12]
PV systems range from small, residential and commercial rooftop or building integrated installations,[68][69][70] to large utility-scale photovoltaic power station.[71][72][73] A household's solar panels can either be used for just that household or, if connected to an electrical grid, can be aggregated with millions of others.[74][75][76]
The first utility-scale solar power plant was built in 1982 in Hesperia, California by ARCO.[77][78] The plant was not profitable and was sold eight years later.[79] However, over the following decades, PV cells became significantly more efficient and cheaper.[80] As a result, PV adoption has grown exponentially since 2010.[81] Global capacity increased from 230 GW at the end of 2015 to 890 GW in 2021.[82] PV grew fastest in China between 2016 and 2021, adding 560 GW, more than all advanced economies combined.[83] Four of the ten biggest solar power stations are in China, including the biggest, Golmud Solar Park in China.[84]
Solar panels are recycled to reduce electronic waste and create a source for materials that would otherwise need to be mined,[85] but such business is still small and work is ongoing to improve and scale-up the process.[86][87][88]
Solar thermal
[edit]Unlike photovoltaic cells that convert sunlight directly into electricity, solar thermal systems convert it into heat. They use mirrors or lenses to concentrate sunlight onto a receiver, which in turn heats a water reservoir. The heated water can then be used in homes. The advantage of solar thermal is that the heated water can be stored until it is needed, eliminating the need for a separate energy storage system.[89] Solar thermal power can also be converted to electricity by using the steam generated from the heated water to drive a turbine connected to a generator. However, because generating electricity this way is much more expensive than photovoltaic power plants, there are very few in use today.[90]
Floatovoltaics
[edit]Floatovoltiacs, or floating solar panels, are solar panels floating on bodies of water. There are both positive and negative points to this. Some positive points are increased efficiency and price decrease of water space compared to land space. A negative point is that making floating solar panels could be more expensive.
Agrivoltaics
[edit]Agrivoltaics is where there is simultaneous use of land for energy production and agriculture. There are again both positive and negative points. A positive viewpoint is there is a better use of land, which leads to lower land costs. A negative viewpoint is it the plants grown underneath would have to be plants that can grow well under shade, such as Polka Dot Plant, Pineapple Sage, and Begonia.[91] Agrivoltaics not only optimizes land use and reduces costs by enabling dual revenue streams from both energy production and agriculture, but it can also help moderate temperatures beneath the panels, potentially reducing water loss and improving microclimates for crop growth. However, careful design and crop selection are crucial, as the shading effect may limit the types of plants that can thrive, necessitating the use of shade-tolerant species and innovative management practices.[92]
Wind power
[edit]


| Installed capacity and other key design parameters | Value and year |
|---|---|
| Global electricity power generation capacity | 1017.2 GW (2023)[94] |
| Global electricity power generation capacity annual growth rate | 13% (2014-2023)[95] |
| Share of global electricity generation | 7.8% (2023)[55] |
| Levelized cost per megawatt hour | Land-based wind: USD 30.165 (2019)[96] |
| Primary technology | Wind turbine, windmill |
| Main applications | Electricity, pumping water (windpump) |
Humans have harnessed wind energy since at least 3500 BC. Until the 20th century, it was primarily used to power ships, windmills and water pumps. Today, the vast majority of wind power is used to generate electricity using wind turbines.[12] Modern utility-scale wind turbines range from around 600 kW to 9 MW of rated power. The power available from the wind is a function of the cube of the wind speed, so as wind speed increases, power output increases up to the maximum output for the particular turbine.[97] Areas where winds are stronger and more constant, such as offshore and high-altitude sites, are preferred locations for wind farms.
Wind-generated electricity met nearly 4% of global electricity demand in 2015, with nearly 63 GW of new wind power capacity installed. Wind energy was the leading source of new capacity in Europe, the US and Canada, and the second largest in China. In Denmark, wind energy met more than 40% of its electricity demand while Ireland, Portugal and Spain each met nearly 20%.[98]
Globally, the long-term technical potential of wind energy is believed to be five times total current global energy production, or 40 times current electricity demand, assuming all practical barriers needed were overcome. This would require wind turbines to be installed over large areas, particularly in areas of higher wind resources, such as offshore, and likely also industrial use of new types of VAWT turbines in addition to the horizontal axis units currently in use. As offshore wind speeds average ~90% greater than that of land, offshore resources can contribute substantially more energy than land-stationed turbines.[99]
Investments in wind technologies reached USD 161 billion in 2020, with onshore wind dominating at 80% of total investments from 2013 to 2022. Offshore wind investments nearly doubled to USD 41 billion between 2019 and 2020, primarily due to policy incentives in China and expansion in Europe. Global wind capacity increased by 557 GW between 2013 and 2021, with capacity additions increasing by an average of 19% each year.[62]
Hydropower
[edit]

| Installed capacity and other key design parameters | Value and year |
|---|---|
| Global electricity power generation capacity | 1,267.9 GW (2023)[100] |
| Global electricity power generation capacity annual growth rate | 1.9% (2014-2023)[101] |
| Share of global electricity generation | 14.3% (2023)[55] |
| Levelized cost per megawatt hour | USD 65.581 (2019)[102] |
| Primary technology | Dam |
| Main applications | Electricity, pumped storage, mechanical power |
Since water is about 800 times denser than air, even a slow flowing stream of water, or moderate sea swell, can yield considerable amounts of energy. Water can generate electricity with a conversion efficiency of about 90%, which is the highest rate in renewable energy.[103] There are many forms of water energy:
- Historically, hydroelectric power came from constructing large hydroelectric dams and reservoirs, which are still popular in developing countries.[104] The largest of them are the Three Gorges Dam (2003) in China and the Itaipu Dam (1984) built by Brazil and Paraguay.
- Small hydro systems are hydroelectric power installations that typically produce up to 50 MW of power. They are often used on small rivers or as a low-impact development on larger rivers. China is the largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and has more than 45,000 small hydro installations.[105]
- Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity plants derive energy from rivers without the creation of a large reservoir. The water is typically conveyed along the side of the river valley (using channels, pipes or tunnels) until it is high above the valley floor, whereupon it can be allowed to fall through a penstock to drive a turbine. A run-of-river plant may still produce a large amount of electricity, such as the Chief Joseph Dam on the Columbia River in the United States.[106] However many run-of-the-river hydro power plants are micro hydro or pico hydro plants.
Much hydropower is flexible, thus complementing wind and solar, as it not intermittent.[107] In 2021, the world renewable hydropower capacity was 1,360 GW.[83] Only a third of the world's estimated hydroelectric potential of 14,000 TWh/year has been developed.[108][109] New hydropower projects face opposition from local communities due to their large impact, including relocation of communities and flooding of wildlife habitats and farming land.[110] High cost and lead times from permission process, including environmental and risk assessments, with lack of environmental and social acceptance are therefore the primary challenges for new developments.[111] It is popular to repower old dams thereby increasing their efficiency and capacity as well as quicker responsiveness on the grid.[112] Where circumstances permit existing dams such as the Russell Dam built in 1985 may be updated with "pump back" facilities for pumped-storage which is useful for peak loads or to support intermittent wind and solar power. Because dispatchable power is more valuable than VRE[113][114] countries with large hydroelectric developments such as Canada and Norway are spending billions to expand their grids to trade with neighboring countries having limited hydro.[115]
Bioenergy
[edit]| Installed capacity and other key design parameters | Value and year |
|---|---|
| Global electricity generation capacity | 150.3 GW (2023)[116] |
| Global electricity generation capacity annual growth rate | 5.8% (2014-2023)[117] |
| Share of global electricity generation | 2.4% (2022)[55] |
| Levelized cost per megawatt hour | USD 118.908 (2019)[118] |
| Primary technologies | Biomass, biofuel |
| Main applications | Electricity, heating, cooking, transportation fuels |
Biomass is biological material derived from living, or recently living organisms. Most commonly, it refers to plants or plant-derived materials. As an energy source, biomass can either be used directly via combustion to produce heat, or converted to a more energy-dense biofuel like ethanol. Wood is the most significant biomass energy source as of 2012[119] and is usually sourced from a trees cleared for silvicultural reasons or fire prevention. Municipal wood waste – for instance, construction materials or sawdust – is also often burned for energy.[120] The biggest per-capita producers of wood-based bioenergy are heavily forested countries like Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Austria, and Denmark.[121]
Bioenergy can be environmentally destructive if old-growth forests are cleared to make way for crop production. In particular, demand for palm oil to produce biodiesel has contributed to the deforestation of tropical rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia.[122] In addition, burning biomass still produces carbon emissions, although much less than fossil fuels (39 grams of CO2 per megajoule of energy, compared to 75 g/MJ for fossil fuels).[123]
Some biomass sources are unsustainable at current rates of exploitation (as of 2017).[124]

Biofuel
[edit]Biofuels are primarily used in transportation, providing 3.5% of the world's transport energy demand in 2022,[125] up from 2.7% in 2010.[126] Biojet is expected to be important for short-term reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from long-haul flights.[127]
Aside from wood, the major sources of bioenergy are bioethanol and biodiesel.[12] Bioethanol is usually produced by fermenting the sugar components of crops like sugarcane and maize, while biodiesel is mostly made from oils extracted from plants, such as soybean oil and corn oil.[128] Most of the crops used to produce bioethanol and biodiesel are grown specifically for this purpose,[129] although used cooking oil accounted for 14% of the oil used to produce biodiesel as of 2015.[128] The biomass used to produce biofuels varies by region. Maize is the major feedstock in the United States, while sugarcane dominates in Brazil.[130] In the European Union, where biodiesel is more common than bioethanol, rapeseed oil and palm oil are the main feedstocks.[131] China, although it produces comparatively much less biofuel, uses mostly corn and wheat.[132] In many countries, biofuels are either subsidized or mandated to be included in fuel mixtures.[122]
There are many other sources of bioenergy that are more niche, or not yet viable at large scales. For instance, bioethanol could be produced from the cellulosic parts of crops, rather than only the seed as is common today.[133] Sweet sorghum may be a promising alternative source of bioethanol, due to its tolerance of a wide range of climates.[134] Cow dung can be converted into methane.[135] There is also a great deal of research involving algal fuel, which is attractive because algae is a non-food resource, grows around 20 times faster than most food crops, and can be grown almost anywhere.[136]

Geothermal energy
[edit]

| Installed capacity and other key design parameters | Value and year |
|---|---|
| Global electricity power generation capacity | 14.9 GW (2023)[137] |
| Global electricity power generation capacity annual growth rate | 3.4% (2014-2023)[138] |
| Share of global electricity generation | <1% (2018)[139] |
| Levelized cost per megawatt hour | USD 58.257 (2019)[140] |
| Primary technologies | Dry steam, flash steam, and binary cycle power stations |
| Main applications | Electricity, heating |
Geothermal energy is thermal energy (heat) extracted from the Earth's crust. It originates from several different sources, of which the most significant is slow radioactive decay of minerals contained in the Earth's interior,[12] as well as some leftover heat from the formation of the Earth.[141] Some of the heat is generated near the Earth's surface in the crust, but some also flows from deep within the Earth from the mantle and core.[141] Geothermal energy extraction is viable mostly in countries located on tectonic plate edges, where the Earth's hot mantle is more exposed.[142] As of 2023, the United States has by far the most geothermal capacity (2.7 GW,[143] or less than 0.2% of the country's total energy capacity[144]), followed by Indonesia and the Philippines. Global capacity in 2022 was 15 GW.[143]
Geothermal energy can be either used directly to heat homes, as is common in Iceland where almost all of its energy is renewable, or to generate electricity. Iceland is a global leader in renewable energy, relying almost entirely on its abundant geothermal and hydroelectric resources derived from volcanic activity and glaciers.[145] At smaller scales, geothermal power can be generated with geothermal heat pumps, which can extract heat from ground temperatures of under 30 °C (86 °F), allowing them to be used at relatively shallow depths of a few meters.[142] Electricity generation requires large plants and ground temperatures of at least 150 °C (302 °F). In some countries, electricity produced from geothermal energy accounts for a large portion of the total, such as Kenya (43%) and Indonesia (5%).[146]
Technical advances may eventually make geothermal power more widely available. For example, enhanced geothermal systems involve drilling around 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) into the Earth, breaking apart hot rocks and extracting the heat using water. In theory, this type of geothermal energy extraction could be done anywhere on Earth.[142]
Emerging technologies
[edit]There are also other renewable energy technologies that are still under development, including enhanced geothermal systems, concentrated solar power, cellulosic ethanol, piezoelectricity, and marine energy.[147][148] These technologies are not yet widely demonstrated or have limited commercialization. Some may have potential comparable to other renewable energy technologies, but still depend on further breakthroughs from research, development and engineering.[148]
Enhanced geothermal systems
[edit]Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are a new type of geothermal power which does not require natural hot water reservoirs or steam to generate power. Most of the underground heat within drilling reach is trapped in solid rocks, not in water.[149] EGS technologies use hydraulic fracturing to break apart these rocks and release the heat they contain, which is then harvested by pumping water into the ground. The process is sometimes known as "hot dry rock" (HDR).[150] Unlike conventional geothermal energy extraction, EGS may be feasible anywhere in the world, depending on the cost of drilling.[151] EGS projects have so far primarily been limited to demonstration plants, as the technology is capital-intensive due to the high cost of drilling.[152]
Sand battery
[edit]Sand batteries are large tanks filled with soapstone that absorb heat. Excess heat energy from renewable energy is piped into the tank and then energy is discharged as boiling water, steam, or heated air. Finland is using this technology in Pornainen as Polar Night Energy built a 1MW sand battery that can store up to 100 MWh that went online in 2025.[153][154]
Piezoelectricity
[edit]Piezoelectricity is the conversion of existing mechanical stress or vibration (classical mechanics) into an electrical charge without consuming or depleting a fuel source.[155][156] Piezotronics enables the interaction of piezoelectric and semiconducting behaviors to modulate energy barriers at contact surface, thereby controlling charge carrier transport.[157] Since the introduction of nanogenerators, efficiency of microscale energy harvesting has improved. For instance, nanogenerators are typically consist of piezoelectric nanowires; as these wires bend or compress, the applied mechanical stress causes the ions within the material's crystal lattice to shift their positions. This shift disrupts the nanowire's charge symmetry which causes an instantaneous charge polarization (separation of positive and negative charges) across the nanowire's ends. Once polarized, electrons are freed from the attached electrode which generates usable alternating current (AC) electricity that can energize low-power sensors.[158][159] Piezoelectric microelectromechanical systems (piezoMEMS), such as actuators for artificial organs and pacemakers or micropumps for drug delivery and reagent transfers, are useful for medical purposes and energy harvesting.[160] Furthermore, specialized components like piezoelectric resonators and quartz crystal oscillators are used to regulate electrical circuit frequencies.[161]
Marine energy
[edit]
Marine energy (also sometimes referred to as ocean energy) is the energy carried by ocean waves, tides, salinity, and ocean temperature differences. Technologies to harness the energy of moving water include wave power, marine current power, and tidal power. Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is a technology for generating electricity by mixing fresh water and salty sea water in large power cells.[162] Most marine energy harvesting technologies are still at low technology readiness levels and not used at large scales. Tidal energy is generally considered the most mature, but has not seen wide deployment.[163] The world's largest tidal power station is on Sihwa Lake, South Korea,[164] which produces around 550 gigawatt-hours of electricity per year.[165]
Earth infrared thermal radiation
[edit]Earth emits roughly 1017 W of infrared thermal radiation that flows toward the cold outer space. Solar energy hits the surface and atmosphere of the earth and produces heat. Using various theorized devices like emissive energy harvester (EEH) or thermoradiative diode, this energy flow can be converted into electricity. In theory, this technology can be used during nighttime.[166][167]
Others
[edit]Algae fuels
[edit]Producing liquid fuels from oil-rich (fat-rich) varieties of algae is an ongoing research topic. Various microalgae grown in open or closed systems are being tried including some systems that can be set up in brownfield and desert lands.[168]
Space-based solar power
[edit]There have been numerous proposals for space-based solar power, in which very large satellites with photovoltaic panels would be equipped with microwave transmitters to beam power back to terrestrial receivers. A 2024 study by the NASA Office of Science and Technology Policy examined the concept and concluded that with current and near-future technologies it would be economically uncompetitive.[169]
Water vapor
[edit]Collection of static electricity charges from water droplets on metal surfaces is an experimental technology that would be especially useful in low-income countries with relative air humidity over 60%.[170]
Nuclear energy
[edit]Breeder reactors could, in principle, depending on the fuel cycle employed, extract almost all of the energy contained in uranium or thorium, decreasing fuel requirements by a factor of 100 compared to widely used once-through light water reactors, which extract less than 1% of the energy in the actinide metal (uranium or thorium) mined from the earth.[171] The high fuel-efficiency of breeder reactors could greatly reduce concerns about fuel supply, energy used in mining, and storage of radioactive waste. With seawater uranium extraction (currently too expensive to be economical), there is enough fuel for breeder reactors to satisfy the world's energy needs for 5 billion years at 1983's total energy consumption rate, thus making nuclear energy effectively a renewable energy.[172][173] In addition to seawater the average crustal granite rocks contain significant quantities of uranium and thorium with which breeder reactors can supply abundant energy for the remaining lifespan of the sun on the main sequence of stellar evolution.[174]
Artificial photosynthesis
[edit]Artificial photosynthesis uses techniques including nanotechnology to store solar electromagnetic energy in chemical bonds by splitting water to produce hydrogen and then using carbon dioxide to make methanol.[175] Researchers in this field strived to design molecular mimics of photosynthesis that use a wider region of the solar spectrum, employ catalytic systems made from abundant, inexpensive materials that are robust, readily repaired, non-toxic, stable in a variety of environmental conditions and perform more efficiently allowing a greater proportion of photon energy to end up in the storage compounds, i.e., carbohydrates (rather than building and sustaining living cells).[176] However, prominent research faces hurdles, Sun Catalytix a MIT spin-off stopped scaling up their prototype fuel-cell in 2012 because it offers few savings over other ways to make hydrogen from sunlight.[177]
Recent research emphasizes that while artificial photosynthesis shows promise in splitting water to generate hydrogen, its broader significance lies in the ability to produce dense, carbon-based solar fuels suitable for transport applications, such as aviation and long-haul shipping. These fuels, if derived from carbon dioxide and water using sunlight, could close the carbon loop and reduce reliance on fossil-based hydrocarbons. However, realizing this potential requires overcoming major technical hurdles, including the development of efficient, durable catalysts for water oxidation and CO2 reduction, and careful attention to land use and public perception.[178]
Comparison of the theoretical and practical potentials of different renewable energy technologies
[edit]Global energy consumption in 2019 was approximately 65 petawatt-hours (PWh) per year or 65,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually.[179]
Technical Potential by Technology
[edit]According to a comprehensive peer-reviewed study published in 2023,[180] the technical potentials for utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind each exceed 100 PWh/year, and thus each of them is capable of meeting the Humankind's total demand in theory.
Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
[edit]Technical Potential: Over 5,800 PWh per year from solar PV alone using current technology [181] This represents approximately 89 times current global energy demand. Thus, utilizing only 2% of the solar power can solve Humankind's energy problems, in principle.
Wind Energy (Onshore + Offshore)
[edit]Technical Potential: Nearly 900 PWh per year from onshore and offshore wind combined https://carbontracker.org/solar-and-wind-can-meet-world-energy-demand-100-times-over-renewables/ In kilowatts: 900,000,000,000,000 kWh/year (900 trillion kWh/year) This represents approximately 14 times current global energy demand. However, it is highly intermittent, and it is not feasible to cover most of the earth surface to collect all wind.
Combined Solar and Wind
[edit]With current technology, at least 6,700 PWh per year can be captured from solar and wind, which is more than 100 times global energy demand. [182].
Hydropower
[edit]Gross Theoretical Potential: Approximately 52 PWh/year distributed over 11.8 million potential locations worldwide. [183] In kilowatts: 52,000,000,000,000 kWh/year (52 trillion kWh/year). This equals to about 33% of annually required energy.[184]
Geothermal Energy
[edit]Conventional Geothermal: Technical potential above 10 PWh/year. [185] Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS): About 600 terawatts (TW) of geothermal capacity using thermal resources within 8 km of depth, equivalent to about 4,000 PWh of technical potential for annual generation. [186] The full technical potential of next-generation geothermal systems is sufficient to meet global electricity demand 140 times over and is second only to solar PV among renewable technologies. [187]
Other Ocean Technologies
[edit]Rooftop Solar PV, Wave, and Tidal: Technical potentials above 1 PWh/year each. [188] Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC): Technical potential above 10 PWh/year. [189] Salinity Gradient: Technical potential above 0.1 PWh/year. [190]
Overall Technical Potential
[edit]When including all renewable energy sources, the global technical potential ranges from 164 to 27,200 PWh/year, which is 6.6 to 1,101 times the 2021 electricity consumption of 24.7 PWh/year. [191]
Economic Potential
[edit]The literature assessing the global economic potential of renewables shows that the economic potential is higher than current and near-future electricity demand. [192] More specifically: Around 60% of the world's solar resource and 15% of its wind resource is already economically competitive compared with local fossil fuel generation. [193]
Market and industry trends
[edit]Most new renewables are solar, followed by wind then hydro then bioenergy.[194] Investment in renewables, especially solar, tends to be more effective in creating jobs than coal, gas or oil.[195][196] Worldwide, renewables employ about 12 million people as of 2020, with solar PV being the technology employing the most at almost 4 million.[197] However, as of February 2024, the world's supply of workforce for solar energy is lagging greatly behind demand as universities worldwide still produce more workforce for fossil fuels than for renewable energy industries.[198]
In 2021, China accounted for almost half of the global increase in renewable electricity.[199]
There are 3,146 gigawatts installed in 135 countries, while 156 countries have laws regulating the renewable energy sector.[7][200]
Globally in 2020 there are over 10 million jobs associated with the renewable energy industries, with solar photovoltaics being the largest renewable employer.[201] The clean energy sectors added about 4.7 million jobs globally between 2019 and 2022, totaling 35 million jobs by 2022.[202]: 5
Usage by sector or application
[edit]Some studies say that a global transition to 100% renewable energy across all sectors – power, heat, transport and industry – is feasible and economically viable.[203][204][205]
One of the efforts to decarbonize transportation is the increased use of electric vehicles (EVs).[206] Despite that and the use of biofuels, such as biojet, less than 4% of transport energy is from renewables.[207] Occasionally hydrogen fuel cells are used for heavy transport.[208] Meanwhile, in the future electrofuels may also play a greater role in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and maritime shipping.[209]
Solar water heating makes an important contribution to renewable heat in many countries, most notably in China, which now has 70% of the global total (180 GWth). Most of these systems are installed on multi-family apartment buildings[210] and meet a portion of the hot water needs of an estimated 50–60 million households in China. Worldwide, total installed solar water heating systems meet a portion of the water heating needs of over 70 million households.
Heat pumps provide both heating and cooling, and also flatten the electric demand curve and are thus an increasing priority.[211] Renewable thermal energy is also growing rapidly.[212] About 10% of heating and cooling energy is from renewables.[213]
Cost comparison
[edit]The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) stated that ~86% (187 GW) of renewable capacity added in 2022 had lower costs than electricity generated from fossil fuels.[214] IRENA also stated that capacity added since 2000 reduced electricity bills in 2022 by at least $520 billion, and that in non-OECD countries, the lifetime savings of 2022 capacity additions will reduce costs by up to $580 billion.[214]
| Installed[215] TWp |
Growth TW/yr[215] |
Production per installed capacity*[216] |
Energy TWh/yr*[216] |
Growth TWh/yr*[216] |
Levelized cost US¢/kWh[217] |
Av. auction prices US¢/kWh[218] |
Cost development 2010–2019[217] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar PV | 0.580 | 0.098 | 13% | 549 | 123 | 6.8 | 3.9 | −82% |
| Solar CSP | 0.006 | 0.0006 | 13% | 6.3 | 0.5 | 18.2 | 7.5 | −47% |
| Wind Offshore | 0.028 | 0.0045 | 33% | 68 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 8.2 | −30% |
| Wind Onshore | 0.594 | 0.05 | 25% | 1194 | 118 | 5.3 | 4.3 | −38% |
| Hydro | 1.310 | 0.013 | 38% | 4267 | 90 | 4.7 | +27% | |
| Bioenergy | 0.12 | 0.006 | 51% | 522 | 27 | 6.6 | −13% | |
| Geothermal | 0.014 | 0.00007 | 74% | 13.9 | 0.7 | 7.3 | +49% |
* = 2018. All other values for 2019.
Growth of renewables
[edit]Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is a measure of the average net present cost of electricity generation for a generating plant over its lifetime.
The results of a recent review of the literature concluded that as greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters begin to be held liable for damages resulting from GHG emissions resulting in climate change, a high value for liability mitigation would provide powerful incentives for deployment of renewable energy technologies.[231]
In the decade of 2010–2019, worldwide investment in renewable energy capacity excluding large hydropower amounted to US$2.7 trillion, of which the top countries China contributed US$818 billion, the United States contributed US$392.3 billion, Japan contributed US$210.9 billion, Germany contributed US$183.4 billion, and the United Kingdom contributed US$126.5 billion.[232] This was an increase of over three and possibly four times the equivalent amount invested in the decade of 2000–2009 (no data is available for 2000–2003).[232]
As of 2022, an estimated 28% of the world's electricity was generated by renewables. This is up from 19% in 1990.[233] By the end of 2024, global renewable power capacity reached 4,300 gigawatts (GW), with solar photovoltaics accounting for over 60% of annual additions.[234]
Future projections
[edit]
A December 2022 report by the IEA forecasts that over 2022-2027, renewables are seen growing by almost 2,400 GW in its main forecast, equal to the entire installed power capacity of China in 2021. This is an 85% acceleration from the previous five years, and almost 30% higher than what the IEA forecast in its 2021 report, making its largest ever upward revision. Renewables are set to account for over 90% of global electricity capacity expansion over the forecast period.[83] To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, IEA believes that 90% of global electricity generation will need to be produced from renewable sources.[17]
In June 2022, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that countries should invest more in renewables to "ease the pressure on consumers from high fossil fuel prices, make our energy systems more secure, and get the world on track to reach our climate goals."[236]
China's five year plan to 2025 includes increasing direct heating by renewables such as geothermal and solar thermal.[237]
REPowerEU, the EU plan to escape dependence on fossil Russian gas, is expected to call for much more green hydrogen.[238]
After a transitional period,[239] renewable energy production is expected to make up most of the world's energy production. In 2018, the risk management firm, DNV GL, forecasts that the world's primary energy mix will be split equally between fossil and non-fossil sources by 2050.[240]
Middle eastern nations are also planning on reducing their reliance fossil fuel. Many planned green projects will contribute in 26% of energy supply for the region by 2050 achieving emission reductions equal to 1.1 Gt CO2/year.[241]
Massive Renewable Energy Projects in the Middle East:[241]
- Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, UAE
- Shuaibah Two (2) Solar Facility in Mecca Province, Saudi Arabia
- NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in NEOM, Saudi Arabia
- Gulf of Suez Wind Power Project in Suez, Egypt
- Al-Ajban Solar Park in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Demand
[edit]In July 2014, WWF and the World Resources Institute convened a discussion among a number of major US companies who had declared their intention to increase their use of renewable energy. These discussions identified a number of "principles" which companies seeking greater access to renewable energy considered important market deliverables. These principles included choice (between suppliers and between products), cost competitiveness, longer term fixed price supplies, access to third-party financing vehicles, and collaboration.[242]
UK statistics released in September 2020 noted that "the proportion of demand met from renewables varies from a low of 3.4 per cent (for transport, mainly from biofuels) to highs of over 20 per cent for 'other final users', which is largely the service and commercial sectors that consume relatively large quantities of electricity, and industry".[243]
In some locations, individual households can opt to purchase renewable energy through a consumer green energy program.
Developing countries
[edit]Renewable energy in developing countries is an increasingly used alternative to fossil fuel energy, as these countries scale up their energy supplies and address energy poverty. Renewable energy technology was once seen as unaffordable for developing countries.[244] However, since 2015, investment in non-hydro renewable energy has been higher in developing countries than in developed countries, and comprised 54% of global renewable energy investment in 2019.[245] The International Energy Agency forecasts that renewable energy will provide the majority of energy supply growth through 2030 in Africa and Central and South America, and 42% of supply growth in China.[246]
Most developing countries have abundant renewable energy resources, including solar energy, wind power, geothermal energy, and biomass, as well as the ability to manufacture the relatively labor-intensive systems that harness these. By developing such energy sources developing countries can reduce their dependence on oil and natural gas, creating energy portfolios that are less vulnerable to price rises. In many circumstances, these investments can be less expensive than fossil fuel energy systems.[247]In Kenya, the Olkaria V Geothermal Power Station is one of the largest in the world.[248] The Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam project incorporates wind turbines.[249] Once completed, Morocco's Ouarzazate Solar Power Station is projected to provide power to over a million people.[250]
Policy
[edit]
Policies to support renewable energy have been vital in their expansion. Where Europe dominated in establishing energy policy in the early 2000s, most countries around the world now have some form of energy policy.[252]
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organization for promoting the adoption of renewable energy worldwide. It aims to provide concrete policy advice and facilitate capacity building and technology transfer. IRENA was formed in 2009, with 75 countries signing the charter of IRENA.[253] As of April 2019, IRENA has 160 member states.[254] The then United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said that renewable energy can lift the poorest nations to new levels of prosperity,[255] and in September 2011 he launched the UN Sustainable Energy for All initiative to improve energy access, efficiency and the deployment of renewable energy.[256]
The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change motivated many countries to develop or improve renewable energy policies.[257] In 2017, a total of 121 countries adopted some form of renewable energy policy.[252] National targets that year existed in 176 countries.[257] In addition, there is also a wide range of policies at the state/provincial, and local levels.[126] Some public utilities help plan or install residential energy upgrades.
Many national, state and local governments have created green banks. A green bank is a quasi-public financial institution that uses public capital to leverage private investment in clean energy technologies.[258] Green banks use a variety of financial tools to bridge market gaps that hinder the deployment of clean energy.
Global and national policies related to renewable energy can be divided based on sectors, such as agriculture, transport, buildings, industry:
Climate neutrality (net zero emissions) by the year 2050 is the main goal of the European Green Deal.[259] For the European Union to reach their target of climate neutrality, one goal is to decarbonise its energy system by aiming to achieve "net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050."[260]
Finance
[edit]The International Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) 2023 report on renewable energy finance highlights steady investment growth since 2018: USD 348 billion in 2020 (a 5.6% increase from 2019), USD 430 billion in 2021 (24% up from 2020), and USD 499 billion in 2022 (16% higher). This trend is driven by increasing recognition of renewable energy's role in mitigating climate change and enhancing energy security, along with investor interest in alternatives to fossil fuels. Policies such as feed-in tariffs in China and Vietnam have significantly increased renewable adoption. Furthermore, from 2013 to 2022, installation costs for solar photovoltaic (PV), onshore wind, and offshore wind fell by 69%, 33%, and 45%, respectively, making renewables more cost-effective.[262][62]
Between 2013 and 2022, the renewable energy sector underwent a significant realignment of investment priorities. Investment in solar and wind energy technologies markedly increased. In contrast, other renewable technologies such as hydropower (including pumped storage hydropower), biomass, biofuels, geothermal, and marine energy experienced a substantial decrease in financial investment. Notably, from 2017 to 2022, investment in these alternative renewable technologies declined by 45%, falling from USD 35 billion to USD 17 billion.[62]
In 2023, the renewable energy sector experienced a significant surge in investments, particularly in solar and wind technologies, totaling approximately USD 200 billion—a 75% increase from the previous year. The increased investments in 2023 contributed between 1% and 4% to the GDP in key regions including the United States, China, the European Union, and India.[263]
The energy sector receives investments of approximately USD 3 trillion each year, with USD 1.9 trillion directed towards clean energy technologies and infrastructure. To meet the targets set in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) Scenario by 2035, this investment must increase to USD 5.3 trillion per year.[264]: 15
Debates
[edit]Nuclear power proposed as renewable energy
[edit]
Whether nuclear power should be considered a form of renewable energy is an ongoing subject of debate. Statutory definitions of renewable energy usually exclude many present nuclear energy technologies, with the notable exception of the state of Utah.[265] Dictionary-sourced definitions of renewable energy technologies often omit or explicitly exclude mention of nuclear energy sources, with an exception made for the natural nuclear decay heat generated within the Earth.[266][267]
The most common fuel used in conventional nuclear fission power stations, uranium-235 is "non-renewable" according to the United States' Energy Information Administration, the organization, however, is silent on the recycled MOX fuel.[267] The National Renewable Energy Laboratory does not mention nuclear power in its "energy basics" definition.[268]
In 1987, the Brundtland Commission (WCED) classified fission reactors that produce more fissile nuclear fuel than they consume (breeder reactors, and if developed, fusion power) among conventional renewable energy sources, such as solar power and hydropower.[269] The monitoring and storage of radioactive waste products is also required upon the use of other renewable energy sources, such as geothermal energy.[270]Geopolitics
[edit]
The geopolitical impact of the growing use of renewable energy is a subject of ongoing debate and research.[271] Many fossil-fuel producing countries, such as Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Norway, are currently able to exert diplomatic or geopolitical influence as a result of their oil wealth. Most of these countries are expected to be among the geopolitical "losers" of the energy transition, although some, like Norway, are also significant producers and exporters of renewable energy. Fossil fuels and the infrastructure to extract them may, in the long term, become stranded assets.[272] It has been speculated that countries dependent on fossil fuel revenue may one day find it in their interests to quickly sell off their remaining fossil fuels.[273]
Conversely, nations abundant in renewable resources, and the minerals required for renewables technology, are expected to gain influence.[274][275] In particular, China has become the world's dominant manufacturer of the technology needed to produce or store renewable energy, especially solar panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion batteries.[276] Nations rich in solar and wind energy could become major energy exporters.[277] Some may produce and export green hydrogen,[278][277] although electricity is projected to be the dominant energy carrier in 2050, accounting for almost 50% of total energy consumption (up from 22% in 2015).[279] Countries with large uninhabited areas such as Australia, China, and many African and Middle Eastern countries have a potential for huge installations of renewable energy. The production of renewable energy technologies requires rare-earth elements with new supply chains.[280]
Countries with already weak governments that rely on fossil fuel revenue may face even higher political instability or popular unrest. Analysts consider Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Gabon, and Sudan, all countries with a history of military coups, to be at risk of instability due to dwindling oil income.[281]
A study found that transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy systems reduces risks from mining, trade and political dependence because renewable energy systems don't need fuel – they depend on trade only for the acquisition of materials and components during construction.[282]
In October 2021, European Commissioner for Climate Action Frans Timmermans suggested "the best answer" to the 2021 global energy crisis is "to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels."[283] He said those blaming the European Green Deal were doing so "for perhaps ideological reasons or sometimes economic reasons in protecting their vested interests."[283] Some critics blamed the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and closure of nuclear plants for contributing to the energy crisis.[284][285][286] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Europe is "too reliant" on natural gas and too dependent on natural gas imports. According to Von der Leyen, "The answer has to do with diversifying our suppliers ... and, crucially, with speeding up the transition to clean energy."[287]
Metal and mineral extraction
[edit]The transition to renewable energy requires increased extraction of certain metals and minerals. Like all mining, this impacts the environment[288] and can lead to environmental conflict.[289] For example, lithium mining uses around 65% of the water in the Salar de Atamaca desert forcing farmers and llama herders to abandon their ancestral settlements and creating environment degradation,[290] in several African countries, the green energy transition has created a mining boom, causing deforestation, and threatening already endangered species.[291] Wind power requires large amounts of copper and zinc, as well as smaller amounts of the rarer metal neodymium. Solar power is less resource-intensive, but still requires significant amounts of aluminum. The expansion of electrical grids requires both copper and aluminum. Batteries, which are critical to enable storage of renewable energy, use large quantities of copper, nickel, aluminum and graphite. Demand for lithium is expected to grow 42-fold from 2020 to 2040. Demand for nickel, cobalt and graphite is expected to grow by a factor of about 20–25.[292] For each of the most relevant minerals and metals, its mining is dominated by a single country: copper in Chile, nickel in Indonesia, rare earths in China, cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and lithium in Australia. China dominates processing of all of these.[292]
Recycling these metals after the devices they are embedded in are spent is essential to create a circular economy and ensure renewable energy is sustainable. By 2040, recycled copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel from spent batteries could reduce combined primary supply requirements for these minerals by around 10%.[292]
A controversial approach is deep sea mining. Minerals can be collected from new sources like polymetallic nodules lying on the seabed.[293] This would damage local biodiversity,[294] but proponents point out that biomass on resource-rich seabeds is much scarcer than in the mining regions on land, which are often found in vulnerable habitats like rainforests.[295]
Due to co-occurrence of rare-earth and radioactive elements (thorium, uranium and radium), rare-earth mining results in production of low-level radioactive waste.[296]
Conservation areas
[edit]Installations used to produce wind, solar and hydropower are an increasing threat to key conservation areas, with facilities built in areas set aside for nature conservation and other environmentally sensitive areas. They are often much larger than fossil fuel power plants, needing areas of land up to 10 times greater than coal or gas to produce equivalent energy amounts.[297] More than 2000 renewable energy facilities are built, and more are under construction, in areas of environmental importance and threaten the habitats of plant and animal species across the globe. The authors' team emphasized that their work should not be interpreted as anti-renewables because renewable energy is crucial for reducing carbon emissions. The key is ensuring that renewable energy facilities are built in places where they do not damage biodiversity.[298]
In 2020 scientists published a world map of areas that contain renewable energy materials as well as estimations of their overlaps with "Key Biodiversity Areas", "Remaining Wilderness" and "Protected Areas". The authors assessed that careful strategic planning is needed.[299][300][301]
Impact of climate change on renewable energy production
[edit]Climate change is making weather patterns less predictable. This can seriously hamper the use of renewable energy. For example, in the year 2023, in Sudan and Namibia, hydropower production dropped by more than half due to drastic reduction in rainfall, in China, India and some regions in Africa unusual weather phenomena reduced the amount of produced wind energy, heatwaves and clouds reduce the effectiveness of solar panels, melting glaciers create problems to hydropower. Nuclear energy is also affected as drought creates water shortage, so nuclear power plants sometimes do not have enough water for cooling.[302]
Society and culture
[edit]Public support
[edit]
Solar power plants may compete with arable land,[306][307] while on-shore wind farms often face opposition due to aesthetic concerns and noise.[308][309] Such opponents are often described as NIMBYs ("not in my back yard").[310] Some environmentalists are concerned about fatal collisions of birds and bats with wind turbines.[311] Although protests against new wind farms occasionally occur around the world, regional and national surveys generally find broad support for both solar and wind power.[312][313][314]
Community-owned wind energy is sometimes proposed as a way to increase local support for wind farms.[315] A 2011 UK Government document stated that "projects are generally more likely to succeed if they have broad public support and the consent of local communities. This means giving communities both a say and a stake."[316] In the 2000s and early 2010s, many renewable projects in Germany, Sweden and Denmark were owned by local communities, particularly through cooperative structures.[317][318] In the years since, more installations in Germany have been undertaken by large companies,[315] but community ownership remains strong in Denmark.[319]
History
[edit]Prior to the development of coal in the mid 19th century, nearly all energy used was renewable. The oldest known use of renewable energy, in the form of traditional biomass to fuel fires, dates from more than a million years ago. The use of biomass for fire did not become commonplace until many hundreds of thousands of years later.[320] The second oldest usage of renewable energy was probably harnessing the wind in order to drive ships over water. This practice can be traced back some 7000 years, to ships in the Persian Gulf and on the Nile.[321] Geothermal energy from hot springs has been used for bathing since Paleolithic times and space heating since ancient Roman times.[322] Moving into the time of recorded history, the primary sources of traditional renewable energy were human labor, animal power, water power, wind, in grain crushing windmills, and firewood, a traditional biomass.
In 1885, Werner Siemens, commenting on the discovery of the photovoltaic effect in the solid state, wrote:
In conclusion, I would say that however great the scientific importance of this discovery may be, its practical value will be no less obvious when we reflect that the supply of solar energy is both without limit and without cost, and that it will continue to pour down upon us for countless ages after all the coal deposits of the earth have been exhausted and forgotten.[323]
Max Weber mentioned the end of fossil fuel in the concluding paragraphs of his Die protestantische Ethik und der Geist des Kapitalismus (The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism), published in 1905.[324] Development of solar engines continued until the outbreak of World War I. The importance of solar energy was recognized in a 1911 Scientific American article: "in the far distant future, natural fuels having been exhausted [solar power] will remain as the only means of existence of the human race".[325]
The theory of peak oil was published in 1956.[326] In the 1970s environmentalists promoted the development of renewable energy both as a replacement for the eventual depletion of oil, as well as for an escape from dependence on oil, and the first electricity-generating wind turbines appeared. Solar had long been used for heating and cooling, but solar panels were too costly to build solar farms until 1980.[327]
New government spending, regulation and policies helped the renewables industry weather the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession better than many other sectors.[328] In 2022, renewables accounted for 30% of global electricity generation, up from 21% in 1985.[329]
Ancient Historical Examples
[edit]Among the most notable historical uses of renewable energy (in the form of ancient and traditional methods), the following examples can be highlighted:
- Windmills in Europe and Asia (such as the windmills of the Netherlands and Nashtifan in Iran).[330] The earliest discovered verified designs of windmills date back to Iran, between 700 and 900 CE.[331][332][333]
- Water mills (Ancient China and Ancient Persia).[334]
- Archimedes' burning lens.
- Traditional cooling and ventilation systems based on windcatchers and Solar updraft tower (or Solar chimney).
- Traditional architecture aware of natural heat transfer and natural energy transformation processes.
- Gravity-based fountains.
- Using animal biomass in ancient fuel bricks.
- Solar ovens and furnaces in ancient China, India, Egypt, and Persia.
- Solar energy applications for traditional agricultural processing (drying), engineering material properties (solar curing of pottery and ceramics), and ancient health practices (natural disinfection by solar radiation).
- Long-distance gravitational water flow control in ancient qanat technology for water transport and supply.
- Cargo and passenger transportation using sails on rivers, seas, and oceans.
- Cargo and passenger transportation based on understanding water currents in rivers, seas, and oceans.
- Using renewable vegetation (such as desert shrubs, agricultural waste, and pruned branches) for producing light and heat.
- Using renewable oils (vegetable or animal-based) for producing light and heat.
- Maximizing use of natural sunlight during the day and moonlight at night in building architecture for purposes such as lighting, decorative applications (e.g., reflective tilework, mirror work, and surface polishing on stone or brick), timekeeping (sundials, noon markers, prayer time indicators, seasonal change markers), etc.[335]
See also
[edit]- Distributed generation – Decentralised electricity generation
- Efficient energy use – Methods for higher energy efficiency
- Fossil fuel phase-out – Gradual reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels
- Thermal energy storage – Technologies to store thermal energy
- List of countries by renewable electricity production
- List of renewable energy topics by country and territory
- Renewable heat – Application of renewable energy
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Renewable energy
View on GrokipediaFundamentals
Definition and Classification
Renewable energy refers to energy derived from natural sources or processes that are replenished at a rate comparable to or faster than their consumption on human timescales, such as solar radiation, wind, flowing water, geothermal heat, and biomass growth.[1][8] This contrasts with non-renewable energy sources, which rely on finite stocks of fuel accumulated over geological timescales, including fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as nuclear fuels like uranium, whose reserves deplete with extraction and use without natural replenishment at usable rates.[9][10] The classification of renewable energy primarily follows the underlying natural resource or process harnessed, with technologies grouped accordingly into major categories: solar energy, which captures sunlight via photovoltaic cells or thermal systems; wind energy, generated by turbines converting kinetic energy from atmospheric motion; hydropower, derived from the gravitational potential of water in rivers or reservoirs; geothermal energy, tapping heat from Earth's subsurface; biomass and bioenergy, produced from organic materials like wood, crops, or waste through combustion, gasification, or biofuels; and marine energy, including tidal barrages and wave converters exploiting ocean movements.[11][1] These categories exclude nuclear fission, despite its low-carbon attributes, as the fissile material is not naturally replenished.[9] Within classifications, distinctions arise based on scalability, intermittency, and sustainability constraints; for instance, biomass is considered renewable only if harvesting rates do not exceed regrowth, avoiding net deforestation or soil depletion, while large-scale hydropower can alter ecosystems through damming despite water's renewability.[12] Emerging subcategories, such as ocean thermal energy conversion, remain minor but fit under marine renewables. Overall, renewables accounted for approximately 29% of global electricity generation in 2022, underscoring their diversity but also variability in output reliability compared to dispatchable non-renewables.[13]Physical Principles
Renewable energy technologies convert forms of energy from ongoing geophysical and solar-driven processes into usable mechanical or electrical power, subject to fundamental thermodynamic and conservation laws that impose efficiency limits. These sources exploit kinetic, potential, radiant, thermal, or chemical energy, often with inherent variability due to atmospheric and orbital dynamics. Solar energy capture relies on the photovoltaic effect, where incident photons with energy exceeding the semiconductor's band gap generate electron-hole pairs, establishing a voltage across a p-n junction that drives current when connected to a load. Photons below the band gap pass through unused, while excess energy above the band gap dissipates as heat via thermalization, leading to the Shockley-Queisser limit of approximately 33.7% efficiency for single-junction cells under AM1.5 spectrum at optimal band gap of 1.34 eV.[14] Concentrated solar power systems instead use thermal principles, absorbing sunlight to heat a fluid that drives a heat engine, bounded by Carnot efficiency , where and are hot and cold reservoir temperatures in Kelvin; practical systems achieve 20-40% due to low relative to fossil alternatives.[15] Wind power harnesses the kinetic energy of atmospheric motion, primarily induced by solar heating gradients creating pressure differences and Coriolis effects. Turbine blades, acting as airfoils, decelerate airflow to extract momentum, converting it to rotational torque via lift and drag forces, with power , where is air density, swept area, wind speed, and the power coefficient. Conservation of mass and momentum dictates the Betz limit, capping at 16/27 or 59.3%, as full extraction would halt downstream flow, violating continuity.[16] Hydropower transforms gravitational potential energy of elevated water masses into kinetic energy through controlled release, typically via penstocks, where (mass , gravity , head ) converts to flow velocity by Bernoulli's principle, spinning turbines connected to generators. Efficiency approaches 90% in large installations, limited mainly by hydraulic losses rather than fundamental thermodynamics, though output varies with precipitation and evaporation cycles.[17] Geothermal energy draws on conductive and convective heat transfer from Earth's interior, sourced from radiogenic decay and residual accretion heat, with flux averaging 0.087 W/m² globally. Systems circulate fluids to extract thermal energy, employing heat engines or direct use; binary cycle plants use organic Rankine cycles between reservoir temperatures (often 100-200°C) and ambient, yielding Carnot-limited efficiencies of 10-20% due to modest , as scales with temperature ratio.[18] Biomass derives chemical energy stored through photosynthesis, where solar photons drive endothermic reactions fixing CO₂ and H₂O into carbohydrates via chlorophyll-absorbed light (primarily 400-700 nm wavelengths), with quantum yield limited by energy mismatches and electron transport chains, achieving 1-3% overall solar-to-biomass conversion. Combustion or gasification releases this as heat, convertible to work via heat engines again bounded by Carnot efficiency, though direct biochemical pathways like anaerobic digestion yield lower-grade methane.[19]Renewability vs. Finite Alternatives
Renewable energy sources are defined as those derived from natural processes that replenish continuously or cyclically on timescales comparable to human use, rendering them inexhaustible in aggregate flow despite flow-limited availability at any instant.[9] In contrast, finite alternatives such as fossil fuels and nuclear energy depend on depletable geological stocks accumulated over geological epochs, which diminish with extraction and do not regenerate within practical human horizons.[20] This fundamental dichotomy underpins the classification: solar, wind, and hydropower, for instance, tap into perpetual fluxes driven by solar input and gravitational forces, whereas coal, oil, and uranium represent fixed inventories subject to eventual exhaustion.[21] The scale of renewable inflows vastly exceeds global demand, illustrating their theoretical abundance. The average solar irradiance on Earth equates to approximately 342 watts per square meter, yielding a total incident power of about 174 petawatts—over 10,000 times the world's primary energy consumption of roughly 18 terawatts as of recent estimates.[22] Fossil and nuclear reserves, by comparison, constitute less than 10% of the annual solar resource in energy-equivalent terms.[23] Proven global reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal correspond to roughly 47, 52, and 132 years of supply at 2021 consumption rates, respectively, though these ratios extend with new discoveries, enhanced recovery techniques, and shifts in demand; nonetheless, they remain bounded by planetary endowments.[24] Nuclear fuel presents a nuanced case within finite alternatives: identified recoverable uranium resources, totaling around 6 million tonnes at costs below $130 per kilogram, suffice for current reactor fleets and projected expansions through 2050, potentially extending further via breeder reactors or thorium cycles that recycle fuel more efficiently.[21][25] However, without such advancements, uranium's finite abundance—primarily from ancient supernova remnants—limits long-term scalability akin to fossil fuels, distinguishing it from renewables where the primary driver (e.g., solar fusion) persists for billions of years.[21] Empirical assessments confirm renewables' edge in raw renewability, though practical deployment hinges on technological capture rates rather than source depletion.[1]Primary Technologies
Solar Energy
Solar energy captures sunlight to produce electricity or heat via photovoltaic (PV) effect or thermal concentration. In PV systems, semiconductor materials such as crystalline silicon absorb photons, exciting electrons to generate direct current electricity convertible to alternating current via inverters.[26] Concentrated solar power (CSP) systems employ mirrors or lenses to focus sunlight onto a central receiver, heating a fluid to produce steam that drives turbines for electricity generation.[27] PV dominates global deployment due to modularity and scalability, while CSP offers potential for thermal storage but remains limited by higher costs and site requirements.[28] Global cumulative PV capacity surpassed 2.2 terawatts by the end of 2024, with over 600 gigawatts added that year alone, driven by manufacturing scale-up primarily in China.[28] Annual additions reached record levels, accounting for nearly three-quarters of new renewable capacity installations.[29] Commercial PV module efficiencies typically range from 20% to 24%, with laboratory records exceeding 30% for tandem perovskite-silicon cells as of mid-2024.[30] [31] CSP plants, by contrast, achieve system efficiencies around 15-20% but enable dispatchable power through molten salt storage.[32] The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for utility-scale solar PV averaged $0.043 per kilowatt-hour globally in 2024, reflecting an 89% decline since 2010 due to falling module prices and improved manufacturing.[33] [34] However, solar's intermittency limits capacity factors to 10-25% globally, averaging about 23% in high-insolation U.S. regions, necessitating grid-scale storage or fossil backups for reliability.[35] [36] Environmental impacts include habitat disruption and water use from mining silicon, silver, copper, and other materials, with polysilicon production being energy-intensive and often reliant on coal-powered facilities.[37] [27] End-of-life panel recycling remains underdeveloped, posing waste management challenges.[38] Despite cost advantages in sunny locales, full-system integration costs, including transmission and storage, often exceed simple LCOE figures.[39]Wind Power
Wind power generates electricity by converting the kinetic energy of wind into mechanical power through rotating blades on turbines, which drive generators. Modern horizontal-axis wind turbines typically feature three blades mounted on a nacelle atop a tower, with rotor diameters exceeding 150 meters for utility-scale units. The power output follows the cubic relationship to wind speed, rendering generation highly sensitive to velocity variations; turbines operate efficiently between cut-in speeds of 3-4 m/s and rated speeds around 12-15 m/s, shutting down above 25 m/s to prevent damage.[40] The utilization of wind for mechanical tasks dates to antiquity, with Persian windmills for grinding grain around 500-900 AD and Chinese water pumps by 200 BC. The first electricity-generating wind turbine appeared in Scotland in 1887, built by James Blyth, followed by Charles Brush's American version in 1888. Post-1970s oil crises catalyzed modern development, with Denmark pioneering large-scale deployment via Vestas and Siemens turbines. By the 1990s, subsidies and technological advances enabled rapid scaling, culminating in multi-megawatt offshore prototypes by the 2000s.[41] Onshore wind dominates installations, comprising 93% of global capacity as of 2023, due to lower construction costs and easier access, though constrained by land-use conflicts and variable terrain winds yielding capacity factors of 30-40%. Offshore wind, situated in marine environments, benefits from steadier, stronger winds (often >8 m/s), achieving capacity factors up to 50-60%, but incurs higher expenses from foundations, cabling, and maintenance logistics. Offshore turbines are larger, with hub heights over 100 meters and capacities surpassing 10 MW per unit, versus onshore averages of 2-3 MW.[40][42] Global installed wind capacity reached 1015 GW by the end of 2023, with China accounting for over half of additions, followed by the United States, Germany, and India. Electricity generation from wind grew by 216 TWh in 2023, representing approximately 7-8% of worldwide electricity, though actual output varies regionally—Denmark exceeds 50% wind penetration, while global intermittency limits higher shares without backups. Capacity expansions slowed slightly in 2024 to 1133 GW total, per IRENA estimates, amid supply chain bottlenecks for components like steel and composites.[40][29] Unsubsidized levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for onshore wind averaged $24-96/MWh in 2023 analyses, with medians around $40-50/MWh, influenced by site-specific factors like wind resources and financing; offshore LCOE ranged higher at $50-140/MWh due to installation premiums, though declining with scale. These figures exclude integration costs such as grid upgrades or firming capacity, which can add 20-50% to system-level expenses, as wind's variability necessitates dispatchable reserves like natural gas. Lazard's assessments highlight wind's competitiveness against new fossil builds in optimal conditions but underscore rising capital costs from inflation and permitting delays.[43][44] Environmental impacts include habitat fragmentation from turbine footprints and access roads, covering about 0.1-1% of farm area effectively, alongside noise and visual alterations prompting local opposition. Bird and bat collisions cause mortality rates of 0.2-0.4 birds per GWh globally, lower than fossil fuels' pollution-driven deaths but cumulative for raptors and migrants; mitigation via radar curtailment reduces strikes by 50-70%. Material demands feature rare earth elements like neodymium in permanent magnet generators, sourcing from mining-intensive processes in China, which generate toxic waste and supply vulnerabilities. Lifecycle emissions are low at 11 gCO2/kWh, comparable to nuclear but above unsubstantiated green claims ignoring end-of-life recycling challenges for composites.[45][46] Key challenges stem from intermittency, with output fluctuating hourly and seasonally, eroding capacity credits to 10-20% in many grids and demanding overbuilds or storage for reliability. Grid integration requires enhanced forecasting, reactive power support, and transmission expansions, as uncoordinated penetration risks frequency instability and curtailments—evident in Europe's 2021 wind droughts necessitating fossil ramps. Supply chains for blades and towers face steel volatility, while offshore faces hurricane vulnerabilities and marine ecosystem disruptions from noise during construction.[47][46]Hydropower
Hydropower, or hydroelectric power, generates electricity by converting the kinetic energy of flowing or falling water into mechanical energy via turbines, which then drives generators.[48] This process typically involves impounding rivers behind dams to create reservoirs, releasing water through penstocks to spin turbines, though run-of-river systems operate without large storage. Globally, hydropower held an installed capacity of approximately 1,412 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, accounting for the largest share of renewable electricity generation at around 4,185 terawatt-hours (TWh), or roughly 15% of total worldwide electricity production.[49][50] Capacity additions slowed to 13 GW in 2023, below the five-year average, amid challenges like droughts and permitting delays.[48] China leads in hydropower with the world's largest facility, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, boasting 22.5 GW of capacity and annual output exceeding 100 TWh.[51] Other top producers include Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Russia, where hydropower constitutes over 50% of electricity in countries like Brazil.[52] Pumped storage hydropower (PSH), which stores energy by pumping water uphill during low demand and releasing it for generation, added 8.4 GW globally in 2023, reaching 189 GW total and enhancing grid flexibility.[53] Unlike intermittent sources such as solar and wind, hydropower offers dispatchable, reliable baseload power with high capacity factors often exceeding 50%, enabling rapid ramping to meet peak demand or balance grid fluctuations.[52][48] It produces no direct emissions during operation, with lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions typically under 20 grams CO2-equivalent per kilowatt-hour, far below fossil fuels.[48] Facilities last 50-100 years with low operational costs, providing economic stability once built.[52] Despite these benefits, hydropower entails significant environmental and social costs. Dams fragment rivers, blocking fish migration and altering aquatic habitats, while trapping sediments reduces downstream fertility and reservoir silting shortens lifespan.[54] Tropical reservoirs can emit substantial methane from submerged vegetation decay, with some studies equating emissions to coal in certain cases.[55] Construction often displaces communities—such as over a million people for Three Gorges—and floods ecosystems, though proponents argue benefits outweigh impacts when managed sustainably.[54] Vulnerability to droughts, as seen in 2023's 5% generation drop from low precipitation, underscores hydrological dependence.[50] High upfront costs and long development timelines further limit expansion in suitable geographies, which are increasingly scarce.[48]Geothermal Energy
Geothermal energy harnesses thermal energy from the Earth's subsurface, primarily from hot water and steam reservoirs formed by natural heat flows driven by radioactive decay in the mantle and core, as well as residual heat from planetary formation. This heat is extracted via wells drilled into geothermal reservoirs, typically located in tectonically active regions such as volcanic arcs or rift zones, where temperatures exceed 150°C at depths of 1-3 km.[18] The process involves pumping geothermal fluids to the surface, using their heat to generate electricity through turbines or directly for heating applications, with reinjection of cooled fluids to maintain reservoir pressure and sustainability.[56] Three primary types of geothermal power plants convert this heat to electricity. Dry steam plants, the oldest and simplest, pipe high-temperature steam (above 200°C) directly from reservoirs to turbines, as exemplified by The Geysers field in California, which has operated since 1960.[57] Flash steam plants, comprising about 70% of global capacity, handle hotter fluids (above 180°C) by flashing pressurized hot water into steam in low-pressure separators, then directing it to turbines; double-flash variants enhance efficiency by a second flashing stage.[58] Binary cycle plants, increasingly common for lower-temperature resources (100-180°C), transfer heat from geothermal fluids to a secondary working fluid with a lower boiling point, such as isobutane, which vaporizes and drives a turbine without direct steam use, allowing closed-loop operation and broader resource applicability.[56] As of the end of 2023, global installed geothermal electricity capacity stood at approximately 16.3 GW across over 30 countries, generating over 97 TWh annually, with a high average capacity factor exceeding 75%—far surpassing variable renewables like wind (under 30%) or solar PV (under 15%).[59] The United States leads with the largest capacity, primarily in California and Nevada, followed by Indonesia, Turkey, New Zealand, and Iceland, where geothermal supplies up to 25% of electricity in some nations.[60] Resource potential remains vast; the U.S. Geological Survey estimates identified U.S. hydrothermal resources could support 9 GW, with undiscovered additions of 30 GW, while enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) accessing hot dry rock could unlock over 500 GW domestically through hydraulic fracturing to create artificial reservoirs.[61] Globally, the International Energy Agency assesses technical potential exceeding 42 TW for EGS at depths under 5 km.[62] Geothermal systems provide dispatchable baseload power with minimal intermittency, emitting about 38 g CO₂/kWh—roughly 10 times less than coal—and 97-99% fewer sulfur compounds and particulates than equivalent fossil plants, though trace gases like H₂S require mitigation via abatement technologies.[63] [64] Plants occupy small land footprints (typically 1-8 acres per MW) compared to solar or wind, minimizing habitat disruption.[65] However, deployment is geographically constrained to areas with sufficient heat flow, such as 10% of global land surface, necessitating high upfront exploration and drilling costs (often $5-10 million per well) that can exceed $100/kW installed.[66] Environmental risks include induced seismicity from fluid injection, potential land subsidence, and water contamination from extracted minerals like arsenic or silica if reinjection fails, though modern practices emphasize closed-loop systems to limit these.[67] Resource depletion over decades is possible without proper management, but long-term sustainability is achievable with monitoring, as demonstrated by stable output at mature fields like Larderello, Italy, operational since 1913.[68]Biomass and Bioenergy
Biomass encompasses organic materials derived from recently living organisms, including wood and wood residues, agricultural crops and residues, animal wastes, municipal solid waste, and dedicated energy crops such as switchgrass or miscanthus.[69] Bioenergy refers to the energy produced from these feedstocks through thermochemical processes like direct combustion, gasification, and pyrolysis, or biochemical processes such as anaerobic digestion and fermentation.[70] Direct combustion burns biomass to generate heat or steam for electricity, typically achieving efficiencies of 20-40% in power plants.[71] Gasification converts biomass into syngas for fuels or power, while fermentation produces liquid biofuels like ethanol from sugars or starches.[72] In 2023, global bioenergy electricity generation totaled 697 terawatt-hours (TWh), accounting for 2.4% of worldwide electricity production, with growth of 3.1% from 2022.[73] Installed bioenergy power capacity reached 151 gigawatts (GW) by 2024, representing 4.4% of total renewable capacity, following additions of 4.6 GW in 2024 primarily from solid biomass plants.[74] [75] Bioenergy also supplies significant heat—over 10% of global heating in some regions—and transportation fuels, with biofuels comprising ethanol from corn or sugarcane and biodiesel from vegetable oils like soy or rapeseed.[76] Investments in bioenergy are projected to reach $16 billion in 2025, a 13% increase, driven by policy support despite slower capacity growth in advanced economies.[77] Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy vary widely but are not inherently zero or lower than fossil fuels without strict sustainability measures.[78] When sourced from waste residues, emissions can be 50-90% below those of coal or natural gas equivalents, assuming rapid biomass regrowth absorbs released CO2.[79] However, harvesting whole trees or mature forests for pellets or chips often results in net emissions exceeding fossil fuels for decades due to carbon debt from slow forest regrowth—up to 40-50 years in some cases—and supply chain inefficiencies like overseas transport.[80] [81] Biofuel production from crops can drive indirect land-use change, including deforestation, increasing emissions by 20-100% compared to gasoline in lifecycle analyses.[82] Sustainability challenges include competition for arable land with food production, leading to higher food prices and expansion into forests or grasslands, which releases stored carbon and reduces biodiversity.[83] In regions like the southeastern U.S. and Indonesia, biomass demand has been linked to primary forest loss, with certifications such as the Sustainable Biomass Program criticized for inadequate verification and enabling greenwashing.[84] [85] High dependence on biomass in developing countries exacerbates deforestation and soil degradation, contributing to 15% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions from land-use changes.[86] Despite these issues, bioenergy's dispatchable nature provides grid flexibility, though its scalability is limited by feedstock availability and lower energy density compared to fossil fuels.[87]Emerging Technologies
Marine and Tidal Energy
Marine energy encompasses technologies that harness kinetic, potential, and thermal energy from oceans, including tidal streams, waves, currents, and salinity gradients, distinguishing it from more established renewables due to its nascent commercial scale. Tidal energy specifically exploits the gravitational pull of the moon and sun on seawater, creating predictable twice-daily cycles in suitable coastal locations, while wave energy captures irregular surface motions driven by wind. These resources offer high energy density—up to 800 times that of wind at equivalent speeds—but global installed capacity remains under 550 MW as of 2024, dominated by barrage systems rather than modern stream turbines.[88][89][90] Key tidal installations include the 240 MW La Rance barrage in France, operational since 1966 and undergoing €100 million renovations through 2025 to sustain output, and South Korea's 254 MW Sihwa Lake plant, the largest by capacity, which generates over 500 GWh annually despite initial environmental setbacks from reduced oxygen levels. Tidal stream projects, using underwater turbines akin to submerged wind rotors, have progressed slowly; Scotland's MeyGen site hosts the world's largest array at 6 MW operational capacity, with consents for 86 MW and potential expansion to 398 MW, though deployment lags due to grid connection delays. Wave energy converters (WECs), such as point absorbers or oscillating bodies, face greater variability; prototypes like those tested by Ocean Energy Europe total under 1 MW in active operation, with 12.6 MW decommissioned post-demonstration by 2024, highlighting reliability issues in harsh conditions.[91][92][93] Theoretical global potential exceeds 2,000 TWh/year for tidal and wave combined, sufficient to meet significant fractions of regional demand where geography aligns—such as narrow straits or high-wave coasts—but extractable energy is constrained by site-specific flow speeds above 2 m/s for viability and limited suitable estuaries. In the U.S., marine resources could theoretically supply up to 57% of electricity needs, yet practical yields are curtailed by high upfront costs and permitting hurdles. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for tidal ranges from 110-480 €/MWh and 160-750 €/MWh for wave, far exceeding unsubsidized solar or wind at under 50 €/MWh, with recent farm estimates at 0.12-0.20 USD/kWh reflecting capital-intensive mooring and cabling in corrosive saltwater.[94][95][96] Deployment faces technical barriers including biofouling, extreme storm survivability, and fatigue from cyclic loading, alongside environmental effects like altered sediment transport, marine mammal collisions with rotating blades, underwater noise disrupting migration, and electromagnetic fields from cabling affecting sensitive species. Barrages can impound estuaries, reducing tidal flushing and impacting fish nurseries, as observed early at Sihwa before mitigation via sluice adjustments. While emissions-free during operation, lifecycle impacts from manufacturing rare-earth magnets in turbines parallel offshore wind concerns, underscoring that scalability hinges on cost reductions via modular designs rather than overhyping predictability as a panacea for intermittency elsewhere in renewables.[97][98][99][100]Enhanced Geothermal Systems
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) engineer artificial heat reservoirs in hot, dry rock formations where natural permeability and fluid saturation are insufficient for conventional geothermal extraction.[101] This approach accesses geothermal resources beyond traditional hydrothermal sites, targeting depths of 3 to 10 kilometers where temperatures exceed 150°C but rock impermeability limits fluid flow.[102] By creating engineered permeability, EGS enables closed-loop or open-loop circulation of water or other fluids to transfer heat to the surface for electricity generation via steam turbines, offering a dispatchable, low-emission baseload power source independent of weather or time of day.[103] The core process entails drilling vertical or directional wells using advanced techniques adapted from oil and gas, such as polycrystalline diamond compact bits and managed pressure drilling, followed by hydraulic stimulation to fracture the rock and enhance connectivity between injection and production wells.[104] Fluid is then injected under pressure, heated by conduction from the surrounding rock, and extracted through production wells, with heat exchangers converting thermal energy to electricity at efficiencies of 10-20% depending on reservoir temperature and flow rates.[105] Unlike conventional geothermal, which relies on permeable aquifers, EGS requires precise control of fracture networks to minimize short-circuiting and sustain long-term productivity, often incorporating tracers and seismic monitoring for optimization.[106] Development traces to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) pilots in the 1970s, such as the Fenton Hill project in New Mexico, which demonstrated feasibility but highlighted stimulation challenges.[107] Recent advancements leverage horizontal drilling and fracking from shale gas, with the DOE's FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) in Utah achieving breakthroughs in reservoir creation since 2018.[108] In 2024, Fervo Energy reported successful EGS demonstration in Nevada, producing 3.5 MW with plans to scale to 400 MW by 2028, while DOE-funded projects aim for commercial viability through reduced drilling costs from 20-30% of total capital expenses.[109] International efforts, including in Australia and Europe, focus on superhot rock EGS (>400°C) for higher efficiency, though deployment remains limited to pilots as of 2025.[110] EGS holds potential to supply 20% of U.S. electricity by 2050, tapping an estimated 500,000 exajoules of accessible heat in the continental crust, equivalent to thousands of years of national energy demand at current rates.[104] [103] The DOE's Enhanced Geothermal Shot targets capital costs of $3,700 per kW and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) below $45/MWh by 2035, down from current estimates of $70-150/MWh driven by drilling and stimulation expenses.[111] Projections indicate LCOE could reach grid parity by 2027 in favorable sites with capacity factors over 90%, outperforming intermittent renewables in reliability.[112] [113] Deployment faces technical hurdles including maintaining fracture permeability over decades, as mineral precipitation and thermal contraction can reduce flow rates by 50% or more post-stimulation.[114] Induced seismicity from fluid injection poses risks, necessitating real-time monitoring and mitigation protocols observed in projects like Basel, Switzerland, where a 2006 pilot triggered a 3.4 magnitude event leading to suspension.[115] [116] High water consumption—up to 10 million liters per MW-year—and upfront costs exceeding $10 million per well limit scalability without subsidies or technological leaps in materials and automation.[117] [118] Despite these, empirical data from recent pilots affirm EGS's causal potential for firm, zero-carbon power if economic barriers subside through iterative field testing.[119]Advanced Storage Innovations
Flow batteries represent a key electrochemical innovation for long-duration energy storage, decoupling power and energy capacity to enable scalable grid applications with cycle lives often exceeding 20,000 full equivalents. Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), the most mature variant, utilize vanadium ions in differing oxidation states for reversible reactions, achieving round-trip efficiencies of 75-85% and operational lifespans beyond 25 years without significant capacity fade.[120] Recent advancements include non-vanadium alternatives like iron-based flow batteries, which leverage abundant, low-cost materials such as iron salts to potentially halve electrolyte expenses compared to VRFBs while maintaining comparable voltage and safety profiles.[121] [122] These systems address lithium-ion limitations in material scarcity and degradation, with pilot deployments demonstrating multi-hour discharge for renewable smoothing.[123] Mechanical gravity-based storage emerges as a degradation-resistant option for durations of 4-24 hours or more, converting electrical surplus into gravitational potential by lifting composite blocks or pistons in water-filled shafts. Energy Vault's G-VAULT systems, for instance, employ crane-lifted 35-ton blocks stacked in towers, yielding round-trip efficiencies of 80-85% and lifespans over 30 years with no chemical degradation.[124] Gravitricity's underground variants repurpose disused mine shafts, suspending weights up to 2,000 tons to generate power via winch descent, with response times under a second for grid stabilization.[125] These innovations bypass rare-earth dependencies, though site-specific geography limits widespread adoption compared to electrochemical rivals.[126] Thermal energy storage advancements, particularly in molten salt configurations, facilitate dispatchable output from concentrated solar power by storing heat at 565°C for 10+ hours. Innovations like single-tank thermocline designs with particulate fillers reduce material use by 30-50% versus two-tank systems, enhancing cost-effectiveness for hybrid renewable plants.[127] [128] Efficiencies exceed 95% for sensible heat retention, though corrosion and freezing risks necessitate alloyed salts or additives.[129] Chemical hydrogen storage targets seasonal needs by electrolyzing surplus renewable electricity into H2, compressed or converted to ammonia for volumes up to gigawatt-hours, but round-trip efficiencies languish at 30-50% due to electrolysis and reconversion losses. Green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis using renewable electricity, is projected to scale with new production facilities operational from 2026, per DOE strategies targeting cost reductions to enable widespread adoption by 2030.[130] [131] [132] The U.S. Department of Energy identifies it as viable for multi-day buffering where density trumps efficiency, yet empirical pilots reveal 2-3 times higher energy input requirements versus batteries, constraining economic viability absent subsidies.[133] Solid-state batteries, employing ceramic or polymer electrolytes, offer grid-potential enhancements in density (up to 500 Wh/kg) and thermal stability over liquid lithium-ion, mitigating fire risks for stationary use, with foreseen advancements yielding more efficient batteries to support renewable integration through 2030 as projected by the IEA.[134] [135] However, manufacturing scalability and interface dendrite formation persist as barriers, with commercial grid deployments projected post-2030 despite lab efficiencies nearing 90%.[136] These technologies collectively aim to lower levelized cost of storage below $100/kWh by 2030, contingent on material innovations and policy support.[133]Speculative Concepts
Space-based solar power (SBSP) proposes collecting solar energy via large orbital arrays and transmitting it to Earth as microwaves or lasers for conversion to electricity, potentially providing continuous baseload power unaffected by weather or night cycles.[137] Proponents argue it could deliver terawatts of clean energy, with NASA's 2024 study outlining a phased development path starting with small prototypes by 2030, though it estimates launch costs at $1-10 per watt versus under $1 per watt for terrestrial solar.[137] Technical challenges include efficient wireless transmission efficiency (projected at 10-50% end-to-end), orbital assembly requiring in-space manufacturing, and safety concerns over beam alignment to avoid atmospheric or biological disruption, rendering large-scale deployment uneconomic without drastic reductions in space access costs.[137] A 2024 analysis concludes SBSP remains speculative, as ground-based alternatives continue to scale more rapidly and cheaply.[138] Airborne wind energy systems aim to harvest stronger, more consistent winds at altitudes of 200-1,000 meters using tethered kites, drones, or balloons equipped with turbines or generators, potentially yielding 2-10 times the power density of ground-level turbines.[139] China's 2025 S1500 prototype, a 1-megawatt airborne turbine, demonstrates feasibility for off-grid applications by dynamically adjusting height to optimize wind capture, with tests showing reduced material use compared to tower-based designs.[140] However, durability in harsh upper-air conditions, tether management to prevent entanglement, and regulatory hurdles for airspace integration pose significant barriers, with commercialization projected beyond 2030 absent proven long-term reliability.[139] These concepts, while theoretically superior in resource access, hinge on overcoming engineering and economic obstacles that have delayed prototypes for decades.[139]Technical Challenges
Intermittency and Variability
Intermittency in renewable energy refers to the non-dispatchable nature of sources like solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind, where output fluctuates unpredictably due to weather dependencies, contrasting with controllable fossil fuel or nuclear generation.[141] This variability occurs across timescales, from seconds (turbulence in wind) to intra-hour changes (clouds passing over solar arrays), diurnal cycles, daily weather shifts, and seasonal patterns, necessitating additional system flexibility to maintain grid balance.[142] Empirical data from grid operations indicate that high penetrations of these variable renewable energy (VRE) sources increase reserve requirements and risk of supply-demand imbalances, as seen in analyses of major power markets where wind intermittency correlates with elevated curtailment or backup activation.[143] [144] Solar PV generation displays pronounced diurnal variability, with output ceasing entirely at night and peaking around solar noon, achieving typical capacity factors of 21-34% depending on location and insolation class, far below the 24/7 potential of baseload plants.[145] Cloud-induced ramps can exceed 1% of capacity per minute for individual plants, though aggregation across large areas mitigates this to under 13% per 5 minutes in distributed systems; however, such events still strain grid response capabilities without sufficient fast-ramping reserves.[146] Seasonally, solar output peaks in summer months in mid-latitude regions, with inter-annual variability influenced by atmospheric patterns, but remains absent during extended cloudy periods regardless of forecasting accuracy.[147] Wind power exhibits variability driven by wind speed distributions, with onshore capacity factors averaging 36% fleet-wide in the U.S. as of 2022, though subject to rapid changes from gusts or fronts yielding ramp rates that challenge conventional plant flexibility.[148] Diurnally, wind often strengthens at night in many locales, partially offsetting solar's absence, but seasonal patterns differ regionally—for instance, U.S. wind generation peaks in spring and dips in summer, with persistent cycles independent of annual totals over multi-decadal records.[149] [150] Offshore wind shows higher factors (often >40%) but retains intermittency, as correlated system needs amplify effective capacity credits below nameplate ratings.[151] Combining solar and wind provides partial diurnal and seasonal complementarity—solar filling wind's summer lulls and vice versa in winter-dominant wind areas—but imperfect correlations result in residual variability, with studies showing up to 30% swings in combined potential across seasons.[152] [153] NERC assessments highlight that elevated VRE shares, as projected to exceed 20-30% in some regions by 2033, erode reliability margins without enhanced dispatchable capacity or storage, evidenced by increased outage risks in high-renewable scenarios from 2007-2023 data. Grid operators thus require overbuilding VRE capacity (often 2-3 times peak load needs) or flexible backups, as intermittency reduces effective capacity credits to 10-20% for solar in peak summer systems.[154] This dynamic underscores causal limits on VRE scalability without parallel investments in mitigation, per analyses from NREL and IEA modeling.[155][141]Energy Storage Limitations
Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind exhibit significant intermittency, generating power only when sunlight or wind is available, which often mismatches demand patterns and leads to periods of over- or under-supply on the grid.[156] Effective energy storage is essential to shift excess generation to times of scarcity, but current technologies face profound limitations in scale, duration, and cost that prevent reliable, high-penetration renewable systems without fossil fuel backups.[157] As of 2022, global grid-scale battery storage capacity totaled approximately 28 GW, predominantly added in the prior six years, representing a fraction of the terawatt-scale renewable generation capacity worldwide.[157] Lithium-ion batteries dominate grid-scale storage due to their deployability, yet they are optimized for short-duration applications, typically 2-4 hours of discharge at full power, which addresses daily peaks but fails to cover multi-day or seasonal lulls in renewable output.[158] [159] For instance, net load peaks in high-renewable scenarios can extend beyond 8 hours, necessitating long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies capable of 10-100+ hours, but such systems remain underdeveloped, with lithium-ion economics discouraging durations beyond 4 hours due to diminishing returns on additional capacity.[160] Round-trip efficiencies for lithium-ion systems hover around 85-90%, incurring losses that compound over extended cycles, while battery degradation reduces usable capacity over 10-15 years of operation, limiting long-term viability.[158] Economic barriers exacerbate these technical constraints; although installed costs for battery projects fell 93% from $2,571/kWh in 2010 to $192/kWh in 2024, grid-scale deployment remains capital-intensive, with levelized costs for storage-integrated renewables exceeding those of dispatchable alternatives in many analyses.[161] NREL projections for 2025 indicate utility-scale lithium-ion systems at around $300-400/kWh for 4-hour variants, but scaling to LDES could double or triple expenses due to material demands and unproven engineering.[162] Supply chain vulnerabilities, including reliance on lithium, cobalt, and nickel mining concentrated in geopolitically sensitive regions, further hinder rapid expansion, as global production struggles to meet projected demands for net-zero pathways requiring 35-fold growth in battery capacity by 2050.[163] [157] Alternative storage methods like pumped hydroelectric (which accounts for over 90% of existing capacity) offer longer durations but are geographically constrained, requiring specific topography and water resources unavailable at scale globally.[157] Emerging options such as compressed air, flow batteries, and thermal storage promise 8-24+ hour capabilities, yet face efficiency losses below 70%, high upfront costs, and commercialization delays, with few deployments exceeding pilot stages as of 2025.[164] These limitations collectively underscore that energy storage cannot yet enable renewables to supplant baseload power without overbuilding generation capacity by factors of 2-3 times or retaining fossil/nuclear flexibility, as evidenced by real-world grids like California's, where storage shortfalls contributed to reliability risks during extended low-renewable periods.[165] [166]Grid Integration Requirements
Grid integration of renewable energy sources, particularly variable ones like wind and solar, necessitates adaptations to power system operations traditionally designed around dispatchable synchronous generators. These adaptations address the inherent intermittency and non-synchronous nature of inverter-based resources (IBRs), which contribute minimal rotational inertia compared to conventional fossil fuel or nuclear plants.[167] Low system inertia accelerates frequency deviations following disturbances, requiring enhanced frequency response capabilities to maintain stability within limits such as 59.5–60.5 Hz in North American grids.[168] Grid codes in regions like Europe and Australia now mandate IBRs to emulate inertia through synthetic controls in inverters, providing virtual inertia via rapid power adjustments.[169] Ancillary services form a core requirement, including primary frequency regulation, which IBRs must deliver within seconds using fast-ramping capabilities absent in traditional setups.[170] For instance, NREL analyses indicate that at 50–100% renewable penetration, grids demand augmented reactive power support and voltage ride-through to mitigate fault-induced instability, as IBRs can disconnect en masse without proper controls.[171] Ramping requirements escalate due to intra-hour variability; solar output can fluctuate by 30–50% in minutes from cloud cover, necessitating flexible reserves equivalent to 10–20% of peak load in high-penetration scenarios.[172] Transmission expansions, such as high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines, are often required to aggregate distant renewable resources and reduce curtailment, with the IEA estimating global needs for 80 million km of new lines by 2040 to accommodate renewables.[173] Operational protocols must evolve to incorporate forecasting accuracy, with errors below 5% for day-ahead wind/solar predictions enabling better reserve scheduling.[174] Demand-side management and energy storage provide balancing, but peer-reviewed studies highlight that without grid-forming inverters—capable of establishing voltage and frequency autonomously—high IBR shares risk cascading failures, as observed in events like Australia's 2016 blackout.[175] Upgrading IBR performance standards, per NERC guidelines, includes mandatory overcurrent injection during faults and seamless black-start capabilities for restoration.[170] These requirements underscore that while technical solutions exist, scaling to 80%+ renewables demands coordinated investments exceeding $500 billion annually globally, per IEA projections, to avoid reliability gaps.[173]Economic Analysis
Cost Structures and LCOE Critiques
The cost structures of renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power are dominated by capital expenditures (CAPEX), which account for 70-90% of lifetime costs due to the absence of fuel expenses, with operational expenditures (OPEX) limited primarily to maintenance and minor replacements.[176] These CAPEX costs have declined significantly; for instance, solar PV module prices fell by over 80% from 2010 to 2023, driven by economies of scale and manufacturing efficiencies in Asia.[177] Wind turbine costs similarly decreased by approximately 70% over the same period, though offshore installations remain higher at $2,000-4,000 per kW installed capacity as of 2024.[178] However, these structures do not inherently include expenditures for balancing intermittency, such as backup capacity or storage, which can add 20-50% to total system investments in grids with over 30% renewable penetration.[179] Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) serves as a common metric to compare generation costs, calculated as the net present value of total lifetime costs (CAPEX, OPEX, financing) divided by the present value of expected energy output, typically expressed in dollars per megawatt-hour ($/MWh).[180] In Lazard's unsubsidized 2025 analysis, utility-scale solar PV LCOE ranges from $29 to $92/MWh, onshore wind from $27 to $73/MWh, and offshore wind from $72 to $140/MWh, reflecting variations in capacity factors (20-30% for solar, 35-50% for onshore wind) and regional factors like solar irradiance or wind speeds.[180] These figures position renewables competitively against new coal ($68-166/MWh) or gas combined-cycle ($39-101/MWh) under baseline assumptions, but LCOE relies on simplified projections of output and discount rates, often assuming 5-7% weighted average cost of capital.[176] [181] Critiques of LCOE emphasize its failure to incorporate intermittency and system-level integration costs, treating variable renewables as equivalent to dispatchable sources despite their low capacity factors and unpredictable output.[182] Standard LCOE omits expenses for firming capacity—such as gas peaker plants or batteries required for reliability—which can elevate effective costs by $25/MWh for wind and $43/MWh for solar when added as a "cost of intermittency" adjustment.[183] For example, in regions like California or Germany with high renewable shares, grid balancing and curtailment costs have driven wholesale prices volatility, with backup needs increasing total system expenses by 50-100% beyond isolated generator LCOE.[184] [185] This metric also neglects transmission upgrades, estimated at $10-30/MWh for remote wind/solar farms, and the opportunity costs of overbuilding capacity to achieve firm power equivalence.[186] Economists like Paul Joskow have argued since 2011 that LCOE distorts comparisons by ignoring output-value correlations, where renewables often generate during low-demand periods, reducing their marginal economic value.[182]| Technology | Base LCOE ($/MWh, 2025 unsubsidized) | Estimated Firming Add-On ($/MWh) | Effective System Cost Range ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utility-Scale Solar PV | 29-92 | 43 | 72-135 |
| Onshore Wind | 27-73 | 25 | 52-98 |
| Offshore Wind | 72-140 | 25-40 | 97-180 |
Subsidies and Market Distortions
Renewable energy technologies, particularly wind and solar, have received substantial government subsidies worldwide, often in the form of tax credits, feed-in tariffs, and direct payments, which alter competitive dynamics in energy markets. In the United States, federal subsidies for renewables totaled $15.6 billion in fiscal year 2022, more than doubling from $7.4 billion in 2016, with the Production Tax Credit (PTC) offering up to 2.75 cents per kilowatt-hour for qualifying electricity generation and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) providing a 30% credit on capital costs under the Inflation Reduction Act extensions. These mechanisms reduce the effective cost to developers, encouraging deployment but shifting expenses to taxpayers and obscuring true economic viability when intermittency requires backup capacity. Globally, support for clean energy investments reached $1.7 trillion in 2023, though explicit subsidies form a subset driven by policy mandates rather than market demand alone.[189][190][191] Such subsidies introduce market distortions by incentivizing overproduction during favorable conditions, leading to negative wholesale electricity prices in high-penetration grids. In regions with priority dispatch for subsidized renewables, generators continue outputting power even when market prices fall below zero to capture fixed payments, suppressing signals for efficient resource allocation and stranding investments in flexible generation. For instance, the PTC has amplified negative pricing incidents by rewarding production volume irrespective of market value, distorting flexibility markets and favoring inefficient curtailment over storage or demand response. In Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) surcharge, which funded feed-in premiums, contributed up to one-fourth of household electricity prices at its peak of 6.88 cents per kWh in 2017, elevating retail costs to sustain subsidized expansion amid rising system integration expenses.[192][193][194] These interventions crowd out unsubsidized alternatives and inflate overall system costs, as subsidies fail to internalize the need for dispatchable backups or grid upgrades, resulting in higher consumer bills despite apparent wholesale price reductions from the merit-order effect. Empirical analyses indicate that while renewables depress spot prices during peak output, the fixed subsidy costs—passed through levies or taxes—exacerbate price volatility and deter investment in baseload capacity, as seen in Europe's increasing reliance on imported fossil fuels during low-renewable periods. In the UK and Germany, policies akin to feed-in tariffs have correlated with sustained high retail prices, with EEG reforms in 2022 reducing the surcharge to 3.72 cents per kWh but not reversing cumulative burdens estimated in tens of billions of euros. Critics, including analyses from energy economists, argue this favors intermittent sources over nuclear or advanced fossils, leading to suboptimal energy mixes where total societal costs exceed unsubsidized benchmarks.[195][196][197]Investment Trends and Projections
Global investment in renewable energy reached record levels in 2024, with clean energy transitions—including renewables—totaling $2.1 trillion, an 11% increase from the prior year, surpassing fossil fuel investments by a factor of approximately 2:1.[198] [199] Solar photovoltaic projects dominated, accounting for the largest share due to continued cost declines, while wind and energy storage saw notable but slower growth amid supply chain constraints and higher upfront costs.[199] These trends reflect policy-driven incentives, such as tax credits and mandates, which have channeled capital despite underlying challenges like intermittency requiring complementary grid and storage investments that lag behind generation capacity additions. Rising demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and data centers has further accelerated renewable investments, with data center electricity needs projected to double by 2030 and potentially double or triple by 2028.[200][201][202] In the first half of 2025, investment in new renewable energy projects hit $386 billion globally, up 10% from the same period in 2024, though regional disparities emerged, with U.S. commitments falling to under $40 billion from $57 billion in the second half of 2024 due to policy uncertainties and investor risk reassessments.[203] [204] China continued to lead, capturing over half of announced solar and wind capacity financing, while emerging markets outside China received disproportionately less, exacerbating energy access gaps despite high potential returns in unsubsidized contexts.[205] Fossil fuel investments, meanwhile, remained focused on existing asset maintenance rather than expansion, totaling around $1 trillion annually, as capital shifted toward renewables but highlighted dependencies on government support for the latter's scalability.[206] Projections indicate renewable capacity investments will sustain momentum through 2030, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a near-60% rise in renewable energy consumption across power, heat, and transport sectors under current policies, driven by solar and wind additions exceeding 1,000 GW annually by decade's end.[205] BloombergNEF anticipates energy storage deployments to exceed 92 GW/247 GWh globally in 2025, a 23% increase, underscoring efforts to mitigate variability, though grid infrastructure underinvestment—projected at only $400 billion yearly versus needed $600 billion—poses risks to reliability and cost-effectiveness.[207] These forecasts assume stable subsidies and supply chains, but empirical data from delayed projects and rising material costs suggest potential shortfalls if economic realities, such as levelized costs exceeding dispatchable alternatives without incentives, deter private capital.[199]Comparative Economics
The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) installations ranges from $29 to $92 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while onshore wind LCOE ranges from $27 to $73/MWh, according to unsubsidized estimates that exclude tax credits or subsidies.[208] In comparison, combined-cycle natural gas plants have an LCOE of $45 to $108/MWh, new coal plants $69 to $168/MWh, and advanced nuclear $142 to $222/MWh.[208] These figures, derived from U.S.-focused analyses by investment firm Lazard, suggest renewables hold a cost advantage over fossil fuels and nuclear for marginal generation capacity, driven by declining capital costs for solar panels and wind turbines—solar module prices fell over 80% since 2010.[208] However, LCOE calculations often assume average capacity factors and omit intermittency-related expenses, such as the need for overbuilding capacity or pairing with storage; for instance, solar PV plus four-hour battery storage elevates LCOE to $60 to $210/MWh.[208] Capacity factors further underscore economic disparities, as they measure actual output relative to maximum potential. Globally, nuclear plants averaged 81.5% in 2023, enabling near-constant dispatchable power, while coal and natural gas combined-cycle plants typically achieve 40-60%.[209] In contrast, solar PV operates at 20-25% and onshore wind at 30-35% on average, necessitating 3-5 times more installed capacity than dispatchable sources to deliver equivalent annual energy.[210] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections for 2030 reflect this in adjusted LCOE: utility solar PV at $26-38/MWh (capacity-weighted), onshore wind at $19-32/MWh, versus natural gas combined-cycle at $46/MWh and advanced nuclear at $67-81/MWh, though these incorporate partial subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act.[176] Low capacity factors inflate total system capital requirements for renewables, eroding their apparent per-MWh advantage when firm, on-demand power is required. At high penetration levels, integration costs—encompassing backup generation, storage, and grid reinforcements—significantly elevate effective expenses for variable renewables. Estimates indicate $28-32/MWh added for solar and wind at substantial shares (e.g., 30-50% of grid supply), due to balancing supply-demand mismatches and curtailment during oversupply periods.[211] Real-world outcomes bear this out: Germany's Energiewende policy, achieving 59% renewable electricity in 2024, correlates with household prices averaging 0.30-0.40 EUR/kWh, far exceeding France's nuclear-dominant system at around 0.20 EUR/kWh despite similar economic conditions.[212] [213] U.S. averages remain lower at 0.12-0.15 USD/kWh (equivalent to 0.11-0.14 EUR/kWh), supported by diverse dispatchable sources.[212] These differentials arise not merely from generation costs but from renewables' reliance on flexible backups like gas peakers, whose underutilization during renewable peaks imposes hidden inefficiencies absent in baseload nuclear or coal.[214]| Energy Source | Typical Capacity Factor (%) | Unsubsidized LCOE Range ($/MWh, New Build) |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | 80-90 | 142-222 |
| Natural Gas CC | 40-60 | 45-108 |
| Coal | 40-50 | 69-168 |
| Onshore Wind | 30-35 | 27-73 |
| Solar PV | 20-25 | 29-92 |